VERY INTERESTING, EVERYONE PLEASE READ. I WOULD APPRECIATE ANY INPUT.

[tatehill2000]

Can I give you a recomendation?

Take the bottom 3 teams of each division,,, and do what I said,,,, FADE them on a 3 game or more Road trip,,,This will make MUCH mroe sense than your method,,, especially with the NBA,,,,

you will thank me later
tater

 

[mikechad]

Tate, thanks man.
This makes sense, because those teams are all but mathematically eliminated from the play-offs.
That being said,
Chicago is at the bottom (never won 4 in a row).
Orlando, have lost 4 in a row 4 times.

These 2 teams I agree with.

As for the other two bottom divisional teams:

Utah, are fighting to make the play-offs. They also have already had 3 winning streaks of 4 or more in a row. Not a good pick to go against.

Phoenix, had 1 streak of 8 in a row ATS. There are better go against teams out there.

thanks again

 

[tatehill2000]

I dont know how long youve been capping for,,, but take it from me,, its alot easier to count on NEGATIVITY than to count on Positivity,,,

Maimi
Wash
Orl
----
Clev
ATL
chic
---
memphis
Nugs
Utah
---
GSW
Clips
Phx

those are your Road Team FADES good luck,,,
if you want a Martingale angle this is it,,,
tater

 

[wheredatreezat]

Are you recommending to fade them from the beginning of their road trip or starting with the 3rd game and going forward from there.

Thanks

Tree

 

[mikechad]

I would fade them in the beginning.
If you wait for 2 loses ATS, then fadse them on the 3rd game, it won't be beneficial for using the double down system. A losing team like Chicago has not won 4 in a row, but they have won numerous times ATS after 2 loses in a row. Better to make a fade wager on the 1st road game, and if it you then look for another scinerio, if you lose, then double down, you have a good chance in your fade bet winning one of the next two.
It would look something like this:
lost $50
lost $100
won $200
result +180-50-100= +$30

 

[avssports]

#1, it's your money and you can bet however you want with it..but trust me, it is NOT worth it..look back at your examples, most of the time you're risking $200 to win $30...i know you started this thread to get feedback, and i think the majority of the readers are telling you (probably from personal experience) to don't do it..i think you have a much better chance of making money by handicapping it on a game by game basis...

 

[MrTanaka]

.

 

[tatehill2000]

where,,,

the formula is to FADE them fromt he beginning of their road trip,,, 3 games or more,,, to be honest,,, I would consider doing it,,, but instead of taking the bottom 4,,,, I would consider dropping the TOP 1 in each division,,, it was suggested to do so at another site,,,, that TOP team was responsible for 1 6 time loss,,,,,
Again,,, its alot easier to count on negativity,,than positivity,,,, Being that all teams will typically intrench their style of Play at this point,,,

if anyone is going to consider doing this,,,do so at your own risk,,

good luck to all,,,

Tater

 

[wheredatreezat]

Tate,

thanks...knew it was always good to play against the road team on a long trip towards the end of the trip...wonder what the records are for teams on 3+ game trips in the first 2 games compared to the last few....do you have this info??

thanks and gl

 

[tatehill2000]

Trees,,,, I wish I did,,, that is one of the aspects of this stat that would DEFINATLEY give us an edge,,,,,

It was mentioned at the other site to not include the number 1 division leader,,,, I think if we examined this technique closely we might find some value with this method,,

I am attempting to keep track in another thread,,, I dont want to clutter up Leafs thread,,,,
all the best,,,
tater

 

[wheredatreezat]

thanks boss.....any data you find would be much appreciated.....then, you can start your own thread and we can move from there.....i wish I could help out on the search but haven't a clue as to where to start

Treez

 

[tatehill2000]

Treez,,,
go to 6-0 thanks to #1 Leaf Fan,,,, I have todays games there,,,,,

tater

 

[mikechad]

Wow, great job Tater!

Now we are getting somewhere.
This was the whole point to starting this thread. I am not looking to be a hero, nor do I need or want any of the credit.
I SIMPLE JUST WANT TO MAKE MONEY.

As for last night I was 1-1 with my system picks. The non system picks were 0-2, but not caring about them.

What now?
I will bet on Sacremento $100 ( against Chicago again. If Chicago covers, that will be 3 in a row, statistically unlikely yet no gaurantees)

Since Miami won, I will look elsewhere for other picks.

Thanks Tater and the rest, and lets keep thinking so we can improve on the system.

Went to last nights Leaf game, very upsetting.

 

[gracielou]

WHAT IF YOU HAVE TWO TEAMS MEET AT THE OPP END OF YOUR SPECTRUM. SUCH AS A TEAM WITH THREE WINS VS A TEAM WITH THREE LOSES. WHAT IS THE CHOICE OF TEAMS. MAYBE THREE AND THREE IS A BAD EXAMPLE-BUT WHAT EVER YOUR MAX IS FOR EACH WAY YOU BET.

NOT RIPPING YOU, IT JUST SEEMS LIKE WHEN I DO SHIT, LIKE TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS, THEY ALWAYS COLLIDE, AND I GET SCREWED.

 

[mikechad]

Tonights system picks.

UTAH +2 $50

lost last 2
only lost 4 in a row once.
playing a team that has nothing to play for(ORLANDO)
Orl. is 4-11 of 0 days rest, Utah is 7-6.
if Utah does not cover, then on them, next game against NY.

Washington +9 $30

betting against New Orleans, who has never won 4 in a row and has only won 3 in a row once.
This would be NEW ORLEANS' 3rd win in a row.
I'll take the 9 points.

Tate, I don't think the NJ pick is strong, even know it falls in the Atl on the road for 3.
The Toronto pick tonight is good. They lost their last 2 and are playing at home after 4 away.

Recap:

Utah +2
Washington +9

and even know my record is 1-1, it means nothing.
Miami was the winner last night.
Bet against Chicago was a loss, for now.
The system continues when Sac visits Chicago on the 20th.
I will bet against Chicago for $100.

only time will tell,
thanks again

 

[mikechad]

Gracie, in most cases you should not play the game.
Give me a specific game you are thinking of betting when one arises and I will give you my opinion.
Everyone, please understand, I am not saying and have never said I am a great capper. I am only saying I think I have come up with something and I wish to share it for valuable opinions from everyone.
So far I think we are on to something. Just ask Tate with his 6-0 record.

thanks

 

[tomone]

No magic bullets in wagering, it would have been found by now, money management and one game a day is a close as you can get to just staying afoat.

 

[mikechad]

Well, things are going to get interesting now.
No plays for the 19th.

On Friday, I will bet on Utah who is not a streaky losing team. Will wait and see what the line is. Should get Utah at +5 or so.
Only lost 4+ games in a row once.
down $30 with Utah, so will wager $60 on them against NY.

Will wait and see what happens between SAC and MINNY before I make my decision to bet on SAC against CHICAGO. Hopefully Minny lays a beating on SAC tomorrow. This will get them pumped to take out the frustrations on Chicago.
Chicago has only won 3 in a row twice. They will have to cover against SAC to make it their 3rd cover in a row.
I'm down $50 on against CHICAGO.
Therefore I will risk $100 on SAC against CHI on the 20th.

Only time will tell.

 

[GLJJNOVA]

LF, The Spurs were the concensus top pick fade and in one of Taters angles. So we both won with the Raptors. Maybe when these situations overlap, we'll get stronger plays.

The Jazz and Wizards are shaky investments right now. I would lean more to the angles that don't involve playing the bad teams. The weaker teams are more prone to have a streak. And they will struggle, especially on the road.

GL
GP

 

[mikechad]

Gary, the Wash pick was made because I bet against New Orleans, no matter who they play. Unfortunately, you are correct, they played a very week Wash team. But next up for the New Orleans fade will be @NJ.
New Orleans is on a 3 game ATS streak. They have never covered 4 in a row ATS this year.
I'm hoping for a soft line of around NJ -6.

Utah, I am puzzled about. They are one of those teams that if they show up, they can beat the best of the best. Will need to handicap the game against NY before I decide to continue the system on Utah.

Excellent points Gary, you are definetly giving me more to think of.

bye for now.