VERY INTERESTING, EVERYONE PLEASE READ. I WOULD APPRECIATE ANY INPUT.

[mikechad]

I have been following this forum for at least 2 years and there are some great hanicappers here.

I have also been handicapping for a while now, but seem to always come out the short end.
I,ve had days of 6-0 and 0-6. Yet I always handicap the same way. From what I see, there is not to many in this forum that haven't had these type of days.

Before you read on, I want everyone to know that I am only writing this for feedback.
I AM NOT TOUTING OR SELLING ANYTHING!!!!!

Here is what I have come up with.

All records stated are ATS.
I'm going to pick NBA teams to always bet with or against.(eg. to follow)

What teams have never lost 4 in a row.
(remember ATS)

MIAMI (LOST 3 IN A ROW ONLY 2 TIMES)
INDIANA (LOST 3 IN A ROW ONLY ONCE)
MINNESOTA (LOST 3 IN A ROW ONCE)

What teams have never won 4 in a row.

BOSTON (WON 3 IN A ROW 2 TIMES)
PHILADELPHIA (WON 3 IN A ROW ONCE)
WASHINGTON (WON 3 IN A ROW ONCE)
NEW ORLEANS (WON 3 IN A ROW ONCE)
CHICAGO (WON 3 IN A ROW 2 TIMES)
PORTLAND (WON 3 IN A ROW 3 TIMES)
SEATLE (WON 3 IN A ROW 4 TIMES)


NOW, HERE IS WHAT I,M THINKING.

I will use Minnesota as my example.

For the rest of the season I will bet on Minnesota(ATS, 10% juice).

INITIAL BET $20

IF MINNY WINS, NEXT MINNY GAME,
I WILL BET $20
IF MINNY LOSES
I WILL BET $40

SUMMARY - EVERY TIME MINNY WINS, I GO BACK TO A $20 BET FOR THE NEXT GAME.
EVERY TIME MINNY LOSES, I DOUBLE MY BET FOR THE NEXT GAME.

SINCE MINNY HAS NEVER LOST 4 IN A ROW MY MAX BET WOULD BE $160, AND IT WOULD WIN (100% STAT TO DATE)

LIKE STATED ABOVE, MINNY HAS LOST 3 IN A ROW ONCE.

11/11 VS SEATTLE LOST BET 20 LOST 20
11/13 VS BULLS LOST BET 40 LOST 40
11/14 VS JAZZ LOST BET 80 LOST 80
11/18 VS NUGGETS WON BET 160 WON 145 10%JUICE

BALANCE WON 145 LOST 140 = +5

WAIT!!!! WAIT!!!! WAIT!!!!

THIS IS ONLY AN EXAMPLE. YOU,RE THINKING 4 BETS, ONLY MADE 5 BUCKS!!!

IF YOU DID THIS FOR MINNESOTA'S SCHEDULE TO DATE, YOU WOULD HAVE WON $440.

YOU WOULD NEED $300 TO START (20+40+80+160)

MINNY FIRST GAME WAS 10/29
LAST GAME TO DATE 02/11
IN 3 MONTHS WITH SMALL BETS WE COULD HAVE MADE
$440.

IF YOU ARE A BIGGER BETTER, SAY
$100
$200
$400
$800

YOU WOULD HAVE MADE $2200

IF YOU WERE TO DO THIS WITH MORE TEAMS, AGAIN YOU COULD INCREASE YOUR EARNINGS.

I'VE STUDIED THIS FOR MANY HOURS NOW, PLEASE TELL ME, AM I CRAZY!!!!!!!

I NO THAT JUST BECAUSE THE TEAMS I STATED ABOVE HAVE 100% STATS ON PLAYING FOR OR AGAINST, THAT IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THEY CAN,T ALL OF A SUDDEN GO ON A LOSING OR WINNING STREAK.
HEY, THAT,S WHY IT,S CALLED GAMBLING!!!

Now, here is what I am thinking.

MINNESOTA IS FIGHTING FOR FIRST.
I'm going to pick them to bet WITH every game,
to the end of the season.

WASHINGTON, 5 GAMES BACK OF A PLAYOFF SPOT.
Has had 3 losing streaks of 4 games, and 1 losing streak of 3 games. Remember, they have yet to win 4 in a row.
I'm going to pick them to bet AGAINST every game, to the end of the season.

FEEDBACK PLEASE, I WOULD REALLY APPRECIATE IT.

THANK YOU

 

[SSI]

form of martingale approach, double til you win.. most here are going to knock it, i can tell you that.. this was discussed recently here, in another folder..

have you checked this by just betting the same amount on each game, instead of doubling down.. guess you know the ATS records for the season..

keep us posted, since its only $20 that your starting with and your quitting at -$160 then you wont get hurt too bad.. you are stopping at -$160 correct and starting over at $20,, correct..

 

[TheFunkMonkey]

This "system" will probably work for a long time. However, all you need is one bad streak to blow your profits.

As for the two teams (Minny, Wash) you've decided to pick, consider this:

Minny will be a favorite in almost every game for the rest of the season. If they start to slump for 6-7 games, they could easily lose all of them ATS. Maybe they lose straight-up in 4 games, and then win (but don't cover) 3 games.

Washington could be one of the best ATS teams for the rest of the season. Their pre-All Star record is meaningless when you factor:

1) Stackhouse was injured.
2) Arenas was in/out of the lineup.
3) Kwame Brown has suddenly become a good player.

 

[TheFunkMonkey]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SSI:
form of martingale approach, double til you win.. most here are going to knock it, i can tell you that.. this was discussed recently here, in another folder..

have you checked this by just betting the same amount on each game, instead of doubling down.. guess you know the ATS records for the season..

keep us posted, since its only $20 that your starting with and your quitting at -$160 then you wont get hurt too bad.. you are stopping at -$160 correct and starting over at $20,, correct..<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

He never said his max bet would be $160. In his example (Minny), he never had to bet more than $160. But that's because Minny never lost more than 3 games ATS.

I think it is misleading to look back @ Minny (or any team) and say "Hey, I'll be 100% safe if I just double my bet for every game!" It doesn't take much for a team to go 7-13 ATS instead of 13-7.

For example, look @ St Joe's in college hoops. You'd be rich if you simply bet the St Joe's ML for every game. But who knew they'd be undefeated in mid-February? Imagine if you simply bet the ML on "good" teams such as Kansas, UNC, Mizzou, etc.

 

[MrTanaka]

Trust me, it won't work. Maybe it will for a bit like someone said earlier but in the end you're just playing roulette. Think about it this way. Your bookie needs only $100 to back himself up with you as his only customer. You need an infinite bankroll.

But if you really want to find out, then why not just wait until a certain team has lost 3 in a row and bet on the 4th? If you really thought there was any merit to your logic, then that 4th game should be a lock. Just load up there.

That still won't work but IF it did, that would be a better way to go about it.

 

[GLJJNOVA]

These types of systems tend to work better in theory than in practice. Most players don't have the dicipline or preference to follow such a rigid plan. And there is an element of luck in alot of ATS results, and that's always hard to factor.

Best Wishes if You try it
GP

 

[MrTanaka]

Another thing to consider is that ATS results can vary, depending on where you get them. A team may or may not have covered 2 or 2.5. What are you going to do if you place your 4x wager on a game but get stuck with a bad line? They may not have gone 4-stright by the records you are keeping but you still lost.
Covers uses the closing line. I'm not sure from where. As an example, they list Arkansas-LR -16 P ATS for Saturday. Well I know for a fact that it was -14.5 and a win for most of the day because I had that game. Hell, it may have been 16.5 somewhere for a loss. So depending on what spread you're talking about, ArkLR could be either WLP, WLL, or WLW ATS.

 

[SHACK]

I'd say if you really like the strategy, then just wait until your team has lost at least one in a row and that will save you some juice. I don't think it will work because it's hard to keep with it when you've lost 3 or more in a row. If you want to use the strategy wait and bet against the Tigers in baseball or bet against Pitt in hockey. Good luck.

 

[tatehill2000]

that type of a thing will work better with NFL than in the NBA,,,, you WILL get pinched,,,

there is a CAT over at covers now that is FADEING every team that goes ona 3 game or more Road trip,,, he was up almost 50 UNITS!!!!! In this he BETTED witha martingale system,,, he got BIT in 2 weeks with 3 teams that didnt cover,, it ate up all his profits,,, I think right now hes got a small profit,,,
His formula has Proven to work,,,, over the last 10 years I think it averages 25-30 units a season - vig,,,
I may try it next season,,,, it does make sense,,,,

Tater

 

[mikechad]

Everyone, thank you for your replies.
I would like to continue this thread for a little longer because I feel we can come up with something more concrete, so we can all benefit.

funky monkey, thanks for info regarding Washington. I will rethink the teams to go with.

Also the 100% stat on minny and the other teams I have stated are facts. I went through every team in the NBA. Yes, some lines may have been a point or two off, making the outcome opposite(ATS). But that means it could also be in your favour.

As for a team to go 7-13 ATS, that's fine, as long as there is not 4 loses in a row.

Example, lets say Minny goes 7-13 the next 20 games.


L-20
L-40
W-80
L+160
L-20
L-40
W+80
L-20
W+40
L-20
L-40
W+80
W+20
L-20
L-40
W+80
L-20
L-40
W+80
L-20

RESULT - RECORD 7 -13 ATS
GAMES LOST -420
GAMES WON +540 (-JUICE($49) BECAUSE THE AMOUNTS STATED ARE YOUR WAGER AMOUNT) =+490
BALANCE = $+70

REMEMBER, this is with a starting bet of only $20.
REMEMBER, the teams stated in the beginning of the thread are to date 100% stats of not winning or losing 4 in a row.
ALSO, it is a profit of only $70, but that's with a 7 - 13 ATS record.

Mr. Tanaka, it is a good idea to wait for a team (like Minny) to lose 3 games then bet on them. But not load up on them. That's the reason for this system, not to load up on GAME OF THE WEEK!!, GAME OF THE YEAR!!, GAME OF THE CENTURY!!, ETC.

I am betting WITH a team that will not LOSE 4 in a row.
eg. Minny, Indiana, Miami.
and/or

I am betting that AGAINST a team that will not WIN 4 in a row
eg. WASH, NEW ORLEANS, PHILI.

TATER, thanks for your response.
I'm hoping that this forum as a group can butt heads and come up with something more.
You know as well as most in this forum, that the lines that come out from Vegas are as good as can be. This is why it will always be a crap shoot. This CAT guy is on to something. That is what I wan't is for evryone in this forum to come up with something.
But keeping it along this system.

Here is a question for everyone.

WHO THINKS THEY CAN FIND 4 GAMES(NON OF WHICH PLAY AT THE SAME TIME) IN WHICH 1 WILL AT LEAST COVER?

FIRST COMBINATION
W 20
L-20
L-40
L-80
=-140+18(JUICE)
=-122
THIS IS THE WORST CASE, BUT YOUR NEXT GAME SHOULD BE A WINNER WITH A BET OF $160.
NOW +160-122= +38(RECORD 2-3)

WE HAVE ALL HAD WINNING AND LOSING STREAKS, AND WE ALL HAVE FORCED BETS, AND THE MAJORITY OF US HAVE RE-UPED OUR OFFSHORE ACCOUNTS!!!

I LIKE THE FACT THAT THERE ARE 3 TEAMS THAT, 100% HAVE NEVER LOST 4 GAMES IN A ROW. (2 OF WHICH HAVE ONLY LOST 3 IN A ROW ONCE)

I LIKE THE FACT THAT THERE ARE 7 TEAMS THAT, 100% HAVE NEVER WON 4 GAMES IN A ROW. (3 OF WHICH HAVE ONLY WON 3 IN A ROW ONCE)

QUESTION IS,

WHICH OF THESE TEAMS WILL CONTINUE THE 100% TREND, AND WHY????

KEEP THE DESCUSSION GOING,

THANK YOU TO EVERYONE.

I WILL BE STARTING THIS TOMORROW.

 

[bifthehat]

Hey genuis, what happens when your team wins but doesnt cover do you keep rolling the bet up?
Like this: Minn loses 2 then wins one but doesnt cover the loses another 2 then wins no cover then loses 2 more your now risking 2500 to make 20 bucks sounds crazy.

 

[tatehill2000]

see,,, bif,,, your right,,, that is the possibility,,, that is where the Martingale system fails,,,,
Like I said before,,,, another dude was FADEING every Road team that was 3 or more in a row,,, I jsut checked,,, and he is down 16 units right now,,, the SWINGS with this system are crazy,,, It has Proven to be a winner of OVER 25-35 Units average every season,,,
His system looks to be a better winner than this specific one,,,,
I REALLY Love the idea of this type of thing working that is why I am following this other guy so closely,,,

Good luck,,,
tater

 

[GLJJNOVA]

I like using the info that supports the system. Noticing that a team, like say the Sixers is up and down, I know that a loss is coming soon after a win and that has been successful. So I use the knowledge to strengthen plays or point out games to pass.
But another variation you can use is going to a "good" consensus site and fade the public Fav(highest %). I've been watching this and I think the longest win streak for the "top" pick is 3, and that was only once.
So if you're determined to do this, there are a number of different ways.

GLTA
Gary

 

[bolivar]

A good freind told me about this some years ago andf I did it for some time nad hi a snag and they severly bent me. Not the wame but very close....maybe you have it refined but I would caution you to go easu and make it prove itsself; good ludk

 

[MrTanaka]

You keep saying there are 4 teams that "100% have NEVER" lost 4 in a row. That's not true at all. They have not yet this season, that's all. That only helped you if you were martingaling them then. It has nothing to do with what will happen in the future.

You can try this if you want. You will probably do well for a while but there's no way for this to work out long-term. All it takes is one streak and you are ruined. That's the only thing that is close to 100%.

Here's a look at doing this with the Pacers last season:
http://www.covers.com/data/nba/team/archive/team468725.html
You would have wagered a total of 304 units on just that one team. At one point you would be betting 64 UNITSon one game. In that game they were +5 and lost by 2. How are you going to feel about praying Boston misses those free throws so you're not ruined?
If you are doing this with more than one team then what happens when you have to put up 128 units on two games?

 

[mikechad]

Bif "the hat", all the stats stated are ATS. Therefore if a Minny wins but doesn,t cover it is obviously a loss. Again, this has not happened 4 games in a row.
By the way, I,m no genious. I did not start this post to tell everyone how I will make everyone rich with this system. I started it to get some fedback.

Mr. Tanaka, the 100 stats are true for this season. I apologize for not stating that, but I'm sure most understood it. There is no way there is a team out there that has never lost more than 4 in a row ATS.
All the teams I stated are for this season.
As for looking at the pacers from last season is pointless. The stats I have stated are from this entire season to date only.

Gary_Philly, exellent points. This is what I am asking of everyone. I need patterns that give me the best opportunity not to lose 4 bets in a row.

A good example would be betting on Miami for there next 4 games.
Why?
The've lost there last 2 at home ATS(and SU, but all I care about is ATS)
They have never lost 4 in a row this season, ATS.
Therefore i may bet $50 on Miami against Utah. If it wins, which I think it will, great. If they lose, then I will bet $100 on them against Atlanta on the 20th. If they were to lose that game, then that would be 4 loses in a row for the 1st time this season. That is what gambling is all about.

Another example.
Bet against Chicago the next 4 games.
They have yet to win 4 in a row.
They have to play Tor, Sac, Memphis, Det.
Does anyone honoustly think they can cover all 4?
They have beatin Tor the last 2 games at home.
Chicago covered their last game ATS and SU at home.
If Toronto doesn,t beat them, Sac more than likely will.
Chicago has only covered 3 games in a row 2 times.
I like my chances.
Maybe I should look for combinations like the ones stated above.

Bet on Toronto(pk) $50.
If it loses, bet on Sac $100.
If it loses, it would be 3 straight covers for Chicago. I would be willing to bet on Memphis, $200. I would only be up $30, but at least I would be up.
What I am wondering is, would it be a good idea to bet more on memphis?
Reasons: 1. Chicago has not covered 4 in a row this year.
2. The line will be soft since in this example, Chicago has covered 3 in a row.
If I bet $300, I would be up $120.

So far, I think Mr. Tanaka has the best idea where he said wait till a team like Minny loses 3 in a row ATS, then load up on them. I like that idea, except I wouldn't load up. I may start the betting at $50. Double from there if it loses. If it wins look for another similar pattern.

Then he say's "It still won't work".
I disagree. Better stated would be "It is no gaurantee that it will work"
I no there is no such thing as a gaurantee.
I am simply saying that there are certain teams this season that have excellent results ATS, bet with them, and there are certain teams that are terrible against the spread, bet against them.

I am only betting on teams that have winning streaks ATS, and next to no losing streaks.
I am also betting against teams that have losing streaks ATS, and next to no winning streaks.

SAN ANTONIO, is won of the elite teams in the NBA, yet I would not use this system with them this year.
They have had 3 winning streaks ATS of at least 4 in a row (7 in a row was there highest ATS).
This is great, except that they also have had 2 losing streaks ATS of at least 4 in a row (5 in a row was there highest losing streak). This is a team that can empty your bank role pretty quick.
This team is not stated in the beginning of the thread.

I hope this is making sense to everyone, and once again I appreciate all the input.

I will post later my final decision. At this point I like Mr. tanaka's idea of starting in spots where the system I am using is at it's 100% spot.

Using this system I see OK value in playing on Boston(+12.5) against SAC.
SAC, only one time has won 4 in a row ATS.
Boston, 4 times has lost at least 3 in a row ATS. They have lost their last 2 games ATS. Sac, is not a strong play for this system.

I'll make my picks later.
Bye for now

 

[Mookdog]

Hey No. 1,

You're a nice guy, so take this as a kind word of warning: Don't do it. If it were that simple, some of these mathemeticians who've spent years trying to develop angles that can make money would be pounding this system into the ground.
You will have a brief period of emotional rush followed by trauma. Then you'll be penniless.
Maybe we're all bound for that, anyway, but get there by handicapping your conscience - not by deciding you discovered some unbeatable code.
I "discovered" the Martingale system myself at a blackjack table in Reno almost 20 years ago. For an hour or so I thought I was on my way. Then in about two minutes I was broke. Only difference is you'll have some slapdick who can't make his free throws to blame it on.

 

[mikechad]

OK, here we go.

1st team pick.

MIAMI

4 home games.
They,ve lost their last 2 home games.
Will be ready for this one.

Miami -4, wager $50
if it loses I will wager $100 on the next game.

2nd team I'm picking,

AGAINST CHICAGO.

play Toronto tonight, who is coming of a 20 pt loss to Seattle.
Tor is 5-0 of losses of 17 > pts.
Chi won their last game, yet have only won 3 in a row twice this season ATS.
If Chicago covers, I will make a larger wager against Chicago when they host Sacramento.

Toronto -1, wager $50 (should have got it last night, it was a pick)

Other picks that I like tonight, without the system, are:

BOSTON +11, WAGER $22
MINNY U194.5, WAGER $22

good luck everyone

 

[gracielou]

had a buddy that thought the A's couldn't lose four straight games to the reds, we know what happened there. he still owes money to people.

always great in theory, but once you think it will never happen, it always does.

what happens if you lose the last three games of the season with one or two teams.

is it worth the risk for a few 20 or 30 units.

wish you luck and i'll keep track of the three game idea, betting on the fourth. seems alittle less risky, plus it is like buying three games.

 

[mikechad]

Thanks for the response Gracie Lou.
I know it is a risk, and you're right, if you lose the last three games, you would definetly take a loss.
I just think that the streaks of the teams I mentioned should have some impact on people's bets.
What if Chicago covers tonight, and then they play Sacremento the next game, and someone posts saying,
"CHICAGO IS MY GAME OF THE WEEK, THEY ARE GETTING 10 PTS AT HOME. WOW, COMING OFF BACK TO BACK WINS, YET THE LINESMAKERS SHOW NO RESPECT FOR THIS CHICAGO CLUB!!!!!"

quoted by hypothetical "GREATEST HANDICAPPER IN THE WORLD, WHO IS AN AMAZING 15-0 ATS."

Have we all not read this type of garbage before????

If Chicago covers tonight, be careful if you like them against Sacramento, because Chicago has only covered 3 in a row twice this season!
Is this not a valuable statistic?

Las Vegas would love to have every sports team in the world to have a 50/50 ATS ratio. They would make all their money off of 10% juice and dumb parlay, teaser, props, etc bets.

All I have researched, is certain teams this season are to good to lose 4 in a row, not to mention only 3 in a row a couple of times.

There are teams that are terrible this year, and they have not, nor can I see them winning 4 in a row.

The help I would like is, for example, someone telling me not to pick AGAINST BOSTON, because they are fighting for a play-off spot so they will be playing tough down the stretch and can very easily go on a 5 or 6 game winning streak ATS.

So, if anyone has valuable reasons to pick certain teams to bet with or against, please tell the forum.

once again,
thanks to everyone