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Mr Northern Star

Good to hear from you, I traded Solaredge Technologies Inc in the 40s and got scared off when it hit 50, There products are so good , they never break or need fixing and there is no subscription to the best of my knowledge . Enphase has no customer service for DIY people like me , i know this from personal experience, but i cant knock their product 8 years and never had a second of downtime.

My play on solar is the public utilities that are constructing solar farms, I have been trading Southern Company very heavy and Microsoft. I like to think that in small part , people like you and I, have made data now the most expensive commodity surpassing oil by bringing down the price of green energy , you need a lot of power to store all of that data and keep the Cloud Storage running and the servers need to be kept cool in hot states, to collect all of that data from all of the autonomous vehicles, to power the new 5g networks, all the EV cars and the virtual world. I am also in house building and they just want to put in electrical appliances no gas in new houses.. so data and electricity
 

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Mostly I develop solar projects for business owners and I always tell my customers that I will treat them like family and show them the way to get the best ROI on their developments. I also do some residential customers too because it keeps our crews busy if there is a delay on larger projects. Many of those residential projects turn into business clients too.

Had one guy looking for his home. From there we went to his business. Now he will have the first electric semi trailer company in Minnesota. He is building a new facility and putting solar to charge his trucks. He called last week and his plan is to add 5 new buildings in the next 5 years. All because I discussed how it would work for his business.

I had another group that I showed how it looks like from a business standpoint and they are starting with 15 locations and almost 3 megawatts.

Today I was researching a new project that could end up to be a nice retirement business for me. Within 5 years I may become like Warren Buffett and own $5-10 million in solar. They would be cashflow positive almost day one, be paid for in less than 5 years and generate between $250k-$500 a year (I could even afford to make a few bad bets and not be irritated..hahaha). Price of electricity goes up (which I predict will be faster than inflation) so would my income. There is money to be made in solar.

Word on the street is Utah may be the next state with some really attractive incentives for solar if you have any connections in Utah and want to join Warren on the solar train.
 

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[FONT=&quot]General Electric shares fell more than 11% Thursday after Bernie Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos targeted the conglomerate in a new report, accusing it of issuing fraudulent financial statements to hide the extent of its problems. [/FONT][FONT=&quot]A website has been set up to disseminate the report, www.GEfraud.com, where Markopolos calls it “a bigger fraud than Enron.” The financial investigator, who was probing GE for an unidentified hedge fund, writes that after more than a year of research he has discovered “an Enronesque business approach that has left GE on the verge of insolvency.”[/FONT][FONT=&quot]“My team has spent the past 7 months analyzing GE’s accounting and we believe the $38 Billion in fraud we’ve come across is merely the tip of the iceberg,” Markopolos said in the 175-page report. Markopolos alleges that GE has a “long history” of accounting fraud, dating to as early as 1995, when it was run by Jack Welch. “It’s going to make this company probably file for bankruptcy,” Markopolos told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street. ” “WorldCom and Enron lasted about four months. ... We’ll see how GE does.”

GE’s market value as of Wednesday’s close was $78.8 billion. With Thursday morning’s skid, the market cap was down to $68.5 billion. Markopolos told the paper the insurance unit would need to raise reserves by more than $18.5 billion. He estimates GE’s already hefty debt-to-equity ratio of 3:1 would skyrocket all the way to 17:1 if the company restates its actual results.

I will not bore you with the rest of the details, but there is a paradigm shift happening, The market is weeding out the weak.


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Autonomous driving is the key to cutting high priced jobs for unskilled labor and making UPS the 200$ stock it should be.

UPS has been carrying truckloads of goods in self-driving semi-trucks since May. The vehicles are driving through Arizona routes between Phoenix and Tucson as an ongoing test.

The shipping giant announced the partnership with TuSimple an autonomous driving company, on Thursday, August 15. UPS Ventures is also taking a minority stake in the company.

The trucks created by TuSimple are Level 4 autonomous, which means that a computer is in complete control of driving with no required manual controls. While the trucks have been operating on the road, a driver and an engineer are still on board to monitor the system, as is required by law.

UPS just had its best numbers in decades , the impact of online retailers has been a double edged sward for ups as its been perceived that they 'drop the ball around xmas" This will put an end to the complaints of driver who say they are over worked, say good bye to the road and hello to EBT. No one can match UPS logistics technology.
 

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LUCKIN COFFEE INC. (LK) IPO. This is not my typical stock investment , My daughter turned me on to this brand, the last time I met with her her in NYC "Luckin Coffee chain" I feel like this is the opposite of what Peter Lynch would say .. “I've never said, 'If you go to a mall, see a Starbucks and say it's good coffee, you should call Fidelity brokerage and buy the stock,'”

But this is what has happened ... Crazy cheap cappuccinos China's Luckin Coffee chain goes public. Luckin faces an identity crisis: analysts can't quite decide whether to treat it as a coffee chain, a tech company or something in between.
finances remain firmly in the red. In the first three months of this year, Luckin lost $85bn on sales of $71bn. Luckin caters to Chinese tastes. Its focus is more on pick-up and online orders rather than creating a comfortable place to sit and sip, as Starbucks aims to do.

Analysts say Luckin has little chance of competing against Starbucks outside China on the basis of its products or restaurants. But its extensive use of technology could give it a cost advantage over Starbucks, especially in developing countries. I like the Amazon like attack on the coffee market, I like the technology , I like making coffee back into a convenience not an indulgence. Luckin Coffee shops have no cashiers. Customers order and pay for their drinks through an app.

Success is figuring out how to grow a large and loyal base of coffee drinkers. And to do that, it needs a good menu of enticing items. It has even brought on 2014 World Barista Champion, Hidenori Izaki, to help design its recipes and advise it on things like ingredient selection. “Chinese consumers’ taste tendencies are not yet fixed but frequently changing,” Izaki, the World Barista Champion and Luckin’s coffee consultant, told Quartz in an email. “We always analyze and adjust recipes of drinks” such as the strength and sweetness of the coffee. To keep up with the latest consumer trends, Izaki travels regularly throughout China to research flavors and tastes.


Chinese Starbucks Rival Luckin Coffee Soars After Beating Q3 Views
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BILL PETERS10:42 AM ET
Luckin Coffee (LK) on Wednesday reported third-quarter results that topped views amid breakneck growth that management expects will make the upstart bigger than Starbucks (SBUX) in China by year's end. Luckin Coffee stock surged.

Luckin Coffee Earnings
Estimates: Wall Street expects Luckin to report a 37 cent per-share loss. Revenue for the recent IPO is expected to be $211.46 million.

Results: Losses narrowed to 32 cents per share on revenue of $215.7 million, up 540% in local currency. Average monthly total items sold in the quarter shot up 470% to 44.2 million.

The number of stores at the end of the quarter was 3,680 stores, up from 2,963 at the end of Q2 and more than triple from a year ago. Net revenue per store jumped 79.5% to $62,900.

Outlook: Luckin sees Q4 revenues from products to be between 2.1 billion-2.2 billion yuan.

"During the third quarter, sales from freshly-brewed coffee drinks continued to maintain very strong growth, and we believe we will reach our goal to become the largest coffee player in China by the end of this year," said CEO Jenny Zhiya Qian.

Luckin wants to have more than 4,500 by the end of 2019. By contrast, Starbucks had 4,125 stores in China as of the end of its most recently reported quarter.
Luckin Coffee Stock
Shares popped 13% to 21.47 on the stock market today, gapping back above their 50-day average. Starbucks, which has targeted China as a major driver for future growth, was up 0.7%.

Luckin Coffee stock has a weak Composite Rating of 13, out of a best-possible 99, and an EPS Rating of just 2, indicating non-existent profit growth.


I cant wait until 8 out of 10 people in the USA are jobless and on UBI. Crying there are no job because they are obsolete.
 

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Nice pope on LK up 33 percent, the concept has already moved to NYC , ill be going there to check out the competition in the morning, 4$ for a cup of luxury coffee in NY is bargen, i just paid 29 for a cappuccino at my hotel with tip. Every stock I own I use the product.
China's coffee market also has ample room to grow. Currently, China's per capita coffee consumption is only at five cups per year, whereas the U.S. is at 400 cups per year and countries in Europe like Norway and Sweden are above 1,000 cups per year.

Cyber Monday is expected to pull in $9.4 billion this year, a $1.5 billion increase from last year's online sales tally for the Monday after Thanksgiving. I think the big winner will be UPS, The now have the capacity and automation and less competition from fed ex. UPS said Monday that it expects shoppers to return about one million packages daily during the month of December, and about 1.6 million returns daily during the week before Christmas. This is bad news for retailers, especially those that cover the costs of shipping and returns for shoppers. Items returned through the mail cost retailers about twice as much as those returned to stores, according to an AlixPartners report. The returns process costs retailers $3 per package when items are returned to stores, or up to $6 per return when they are shipped to a distribution center, the report found.

UPS makes even more money when people don't want the product and the retailer loses.

So the day trade rotation has not changed (Verizon, Comcast, Luckin Coffee, Disney, UPS, and some Southern Company and Microsoft)
 

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Artificial Intelligence To Create 58 Million New Jobs By 2022, Says Report. Machines and algorithms in the workplace are expected to create 133 million new roles, but cause 75 million jobs to be displaced by 2022 according to a new report from the World Economic Forum (WEF) called “The Future of Jobs 2018.” This means that the growth of artificial intelligence could create 58 million net new jobs in the next few years.
THIS IS THE BIGGEST LOAD OF BULLSHIT. 90% of the people on this board will lose their jobs to automation. I cant even hire computer programmers, they just don't want to learn anything new, they get so complacent with one technology.

Chappelle summarized President Trump’s position viz a viz China: “I’m gonna go to China, and I’m gonna get these jobs from China and bring ‘em back to America.” Chappelle then interrupted his Trump soliloquy, asking: “For what, so iPhones can be $9,000? Leave that job in China where it belongs … I wanna wear Nikes, I don’t wanna make those things. Stop trying to give us Chinese jobs.”

Some of you ill be more happy to be jobless then others, and don't think your white collar jobs are safe, you are even easier to replace with web portals. I will be all this has shifted my investing approach.
 

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What Jobs Will be Lost to Automation?

WAREHOUSE POSITIONS
One of the highest at-risk positions for automation is repetitive task-based jobs. Warehouse and manufacturing positions fall under this, and AI has been shown to be quite effective at performing sequenced tasks with higher accuracy and efficiency than human workers.

CUSTOMER SERVICE (PHONE)
Calling a company for support only to talk to an automated voice system can be incredibly frustrating, but unfortunately, that likely will only become more common. Thankfully, AI-driven customer service will grow to become more natural sounding and easier to understand. This, however, will impact the millions of Americans that work in customer service jobs to a greater degree.

LONG HAUL TRUCKING
Self-driving cars will begin to be more common on the highways of America within the next 10-15 years. Truck drivers command a decent wage, and fewer are willing to take on the long hours required to work in this profession. In response, companies are developing self-driving trucks that will be able to navigate long haul routes without the error and pressure of human drivers.

DRUG RESEARCH
The drug discovery process is an expensive process that takes considerable time and analysis, but with AI, this process could soon be streamlined. Automation will be used to reach relevant scientific data to perform quick analysis of potential drugs, decreasing the time to market a drug discovery.

FAST FOOD SERVICE
Already, you may be seeing automation kiosks at fast-food restaurants allowing you to order your meal without ever talking to a person. The next decade will see even further automation in this aspect of the fast-food industry, eliminating scores of service jobs.

HEALTHCARE WORKERS
No, a robot will not be your doctor anytime soon. But AI could become more utilized in areas involving the diagnosing of patients as well as performing basic surgery. Already, robots are being used by doctors and hospitals to help better serve patients.

SOLDIERS AND PILOTS
AI is an attractive alternative for the military, as it takes our service members out of the line of fire. Examples include autonomous drones and aircraft piloted by AI systems or autonomous weapons that could be deployed on the battlefield in lieu of boots on the ground.
 

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I am an engineer.....if I was 20 again I would choose to be some sort of financial analyst. I think I would have loved trying to pick stocks for a living. Basically legalized gambling everyday. I would have been very good and looking at the data and trying to find theories on how to make money.

My son is a financial planner for affluent clients. We just got back from going out for dinner and discussed the market and what is going to happen. The information that he is seeing and reading is that the market will be strong again this year. Thinks the banking industry could have a strong year. The worldwide market is currently strong in the USA and Europe. Another industry that could benefit is the construction industry because of the potential infrastructure bill.

I am still concerned the market is due for a serious correction. I think it will happen fairly fast too once it starts to happen. I am currently reading The Road To Ruin by James Rickards. It is pretty dry (goes into too many minute details to make his point but he makes some good points that there is going to be some major change and what will happen).

I can give you a couple stocks to look at. Local Minnesota companies. I made a significant amount of money on Toro. I sold it early in the year but the 3 or 4 years before that it probably outperformed the S&P by about 2 to1. I have some friends in management at 3M. Pretty solid company. They seem to be performing well.

I work in the solar industry. SEDG is a company out of Israel. Your two main components are solar panels and inverters. They make the inverters so potentially they could be on every solar installation where as there are probably 300 + different solar panel manufacturers. There product is very good. They went from start up to over 60% of the market in the USA for residential installations. They dont have much of a presence in large scale solar yet. There stock has soared. The 30% tariff on solar panels just announced by Trump administration will potentially result in a slight pull back in price. Solar is not going away. Once you have something people want there is no turning back. If it comes to a free market decision solar will beat the other sources of power. The other thing about their product is ELon Musk has hooked his wagon to their inverter. He throws a certain amount of weight,

On that same line my son said that they have quite a few people taking position in lithium because it is a limited supply and is used in batteries that are in cellphones and also in other batteries.

The old saying of buy when there is blood on the street. A very wealthy friend of mine still laughs about this, After 911 the market got waxed. Boeing got waxed even more. I said the market was wrong. People were not going to quit flying. My opinion was there were 6 planes that needed to be replaced and their stock should be going up. So I purchased more Boeing stock. They have basically no competition (other than Airbus) and the entry point for competition is way too high. Of course it came back with vigor.

I think an industry with a huge upside potential right now is driverless cars. Finding a winner in the technology/sensors market that could be used in a Google car or Volvo or Apple car could be a long term winner.

I have been asked to speak at schools and Universities on renewable energy. I have said for some time the ability to store energy in a cost effective way will be the next be game changer in the energy business. I spoke at an event on Tuesday this week. Another one of the speaker's was asked about the future. He has been asked to be a guest on national news shows like MSNBC and others. Someone asked him where investment opportunities were. He said the other area that I think will be the other industry with huge investment opportunities: WATER. The day is coming where places are not going to have water and then what happens? Any company that has a cost effective solution to that problem is going to make huge amounts. Not sure who that is going to be or what the solution is going to be.

You have been around here long enough to know that there are significant amount of people that are not open to any new ideas. You can maybe use that to to your advantage. The more they dont like something .... the more you know it will be a winner.

You will have to post a stock or 2 you might like.

I see SEDG is over $100 today so it has more than doubled in the last year.

TDG is one you should look at. They pay a good dividend and seemed to be well managed. They just paid a bonus dividend of $35 last month.

I think now might not be a bad time to get some more Boeing. The old saying of buying when there is blood on the streets. Boeing has taken a 25% haircut with their recent problems. They aren't going anywhere and the entry point to get into competing with them is way to high.
 

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Northern Star to us both a wish a happy & prosperous 2020.

I am still 100 bullish on solar power and SEDG is by far the a best of breed stock, we have had a amazing run on SEDG since you first brought it to my attention, I'm sorry I stopped trading it at 60$.. California has become the first state to require that new homes be built with solar panels. The rules go into place in 2020 and are part of the state's ambitious efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. ... But the new regulations mean that houses will be $8,000 to $12,000 more expensive, according to The New York Times. Even of these homes are built, I think at least 5 out of 10 of them will not have the proper exposure and will not be effient.

As much as i respect CSI, they indirectly caused the fires. The misconceptions about the The 2019 wildfire season is the latest fire season in California, United States. As of December 22, 2019, over 7,860 fires have been recorded according to Cal Fire and the US Forest Service, totaling an estimated of 259,823 acres (105,147 hectares) of burned land, has made me like SEDG. Now thay are going to push harder for green power.

Dec 2, 2019 - Newsom has threatened a public takeover of PG&E, the state's largest utility, if the company doesn't quickly emerge from bankruptcy with a plan, what a complete asshole, they caused the problem.

I have not seen a lot of progress in my home state of Georgia for solar considering how much sunlight we have, but I have noticed the number of expensive electric cars where I live, I have been testing the new 2019 panels for my automation and solar AI company, and they are light years ahead of what I installed in 2012.
 

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Kind of a goofy story.

There is a very very smart guy who I met because we are installing solar at his home. He has over 100 patents and worked at Seagate doing some very advanced engineering work for them ( I think he told me he developed one of the industry standards for data storage). He seems like one of the smartest people I have met in my life. He lives in one of the most expensive neighborhoods in the Twin Cities.

He has left Seagate and started his own company and is doing research for a new product. In the course of our discussion I mentioned there could be an application for his product in the solar industry for commercial solar projects. He received funding from the department of energy and I looked at the people that were awarded funds and they would be some huge company like 3M and 7 other big companies and then his little company. The product he is working on can tell basically determine changes in voltage just by being within a certain distance.

I told him on large commercial solar arrays we could quarterly fly this piece of equipment of the system with a drone and identify where a system wasn't working.

What made me think of this is the fires in California. One of the applications would be to flay a drone with this along the power lines and you can tell where there are issues and it could be used to prevent fires by identifying the problem before it happens. This will he way cheaper than upgrading the grid. As part of his presentation he shows how it could be used to make the grid safer.

He is trying to get another round of funding and I get credited on some of the ideas I brought. Seems like a product with some huge potential.
 

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When I was doing my research on Verizon, they have a company called Skyward, you need low altitude authorization & notification capability to operate a company like that. Google sister company Wing announced today that it would be partnering with FedEx. Amazon Prime Air service currently in development. UPS Flight Forward, Inc. DJI is working with Microsoft.

Its a very crowded market.
 

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I try to keep up with this valuable thread and thought this was relevant.

From Diary of a mad hedge fund trader,


Batteries
BETTER BATTERIES HAVE BECOME BIG DISRUPTERS)
(TSLA), (XOM), (USO)







Better Batteries Have Become Big Disrupters

With alternative energy sources growing by leaps and bounds, despite the gale force headwind of a hostile administration, it’s time to take another look at battery technologies.

I have been arguing for years that oil will never again reach a triple-digit price (click here for “Oil: It’s Different This Time”.

Today, I am going to tell you what will replace it.

Sony Corp. (SNE) invented the lithium ion battery in 1991 to power its high-end consumer electronics products.

It is now looking like that was a discovery on par with Bell Labs’ invention of the transistor in 1947 and Intel’s creation of the microprocessor in 1971, although no one knew it at the time.

Until then, battery technology was essentially unchanged since it was invented by Alessandro Volta in 1800 and Gaston Plante upgraded it to the lead acid version in 1859.

That is the same battery that starts your conventional gasoline-powered car every morning.

The Sony breakthrough proved to be the springboard for a revolution in battery power. It has fed into cheaper and ever more powerful iPhones, electric cars, laptops, and even large-scale utilities.

In 1995, the equivalent of today’s iPhone 10 battery cost $20. Today it can be had for less than $1.00 if you buy in bulk, which Apple does by the shipload. That’s a cost reduction of a mind blowing 95%.

Electric car batteries have seen prices plunge from $1,000/kilowatt in 2009 to only $125 today.

Tesla (TSLA) expects that price to drop to $100 with its new $6 billion “Gigafactory” in Sparks, Nevada. A second one is under construction. That is important as $100 has long been seen as the holy grail, where electric cars become cheaper than gasoline-powered ones.

The facility is producing cookie cutter, off the shelf batteries made under contract by Japan’s Panasonic (Matsushita) that can fit into anything.

That will finally pave the way for large scale production of the Tesla 3 this year, a low end $35,000 vehicle with a 220-mile range that will take over the global car market.

If you took existing battery technologies and applied them as widely as possible, it would have the effect of reducing American oil consumption from 22 to 18 million barrels a day.

That’s what the oil market seems to be telling us, with prices hovering just under $58 a barrel, less than a third of where they were a decade ago.

Improve battery capabilities just a little bit more and that oil consumption drops by half very quickly.

Both national and state governments are doing everything they can to make that happen.

The US now has a commanding technology lead over the rest of the world (I can’t believe the Germans fell so far behind on this one).

In 2009, President Obama chipped in $2.4 billion for battery and electric car development as part of his $787 billion stimulus package. He got a lot of bang for the buck.

So far, I have been the beneficiary of not one, but four $7,500 federal tax credits for my purchase of my Nissan Leaf and two Tesla S-1’s and a Model X. The Feds also chipped in another $25,000 for my new solar roof panels.

A reader told me yesterday that Sweden will ban the sales of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles from 2030. China and the UK will do the same. Japan wants electric and hybrids to account for half of its new car sales by 2020.

California has been the most ambitious, investing to obtain 100% of its power from alternative sources by 2030. Some one million homes here already have solar panels, and these are not even counted in the alternatives equation.

Solar and wind are already taking over in much of Europe on a nonsubsidized, cost-competitive basis.

By 2030, a ten-pound battery in your glove compartment (glove box to you Brits in London) will be able to take your car 300 miles. The cost of energy will essentially be free.

And guess what?

In a year, I will be able to use my solar panels to charge my 100-kilowatt Tesla battery during the day and then use it to power my home at night.

That is enough juice to keep the lights on for three nights. Then, I will be totally off the grid, with utility bills of zero.

Tesla has denied it has such a program, but there is nothing to stop a third party from coming in and providing the service. All it would require is an app and 30 minutes’ worth of wiring.

To say this will change the geopolitical landscape would be a huge understatement.

The one-liner here is that oil consumers will benefit enormously, like you and me, while the producers will get destroyed. I’m talking Armageddon, mass starvation levels of destruction.

In the Middle East, some 1 billion people with the world’s highest birth rates will lose their entire source of income.

Russia, which sees half its revenues come from oil, will cease to be a factor on the international stage, and may even undergo a third revolution. Take oil away, and all they have left is hacking, bots, and borscht.

Norwegians will have to start paying for their social services instead of getting them for free.

Venezuela, which couldn’t make it at $100 a barrel, will implode, destabilizing Latin America. It’s already started.

It going to be an interesting decade for us geopolitical commentators.

Further improvements in battery power per dollar will change the US economy beyond all recognition.

This will be a big win for the 90% of the economy that consumes energy and an existential crisis for the 10% that produce it.

Public utilities will have to change their business models from power producers to distributors.

No less an authority that former Energy Secretary Dr. Steven Chu (another Berkeley grad) has warned the industry that they must change or get “FedExed”, much the same way that overnight delivery replaced the US Post Office.

US oil majors will suffer some very tough times but won’t disappear. My bet has always been that they will buy the entire alternatives industry the second it becomes profitable.

After all, they are not in the oil business but in the profit-making business and they certainly have the cash and the management and engineering expertise to pull this off. Exxon (XOM) will turn green out of necessity.

As is always the case, there are very few publicly listed stock plays in a brand-new emerging technology like the battery sector.

Many of the early stage entrants have already filed for bankruptcy and had their assets taken over for pennies on the dollar.

It’s a business you want to be in because Citibank expects that giant grid scale batteries alone will be a $400 billion a year market by 2030.

When I visited friends at the oil majors in Houston, I chided them to be kind to that Birkenstock-wearing longhaired visitor.

He may be their future boss.







 

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Thank you Bozzie, i have been saying this for decades. I have had small solar systems since 1992. I own a solar automation company.

I have been running my house on solar power since 2012, House of Saud sees the writing on the wall, Saudi Aramco is now the world's largest public company, but questions loom. On Thursday, Saudi Aramco priced the I.P.O at 32 riyals, or $8.53, a share, valuing the company at $1.7 trillion. The offering is expected to raise $25.6 billion — a fraction of the $100 billion that Prince Mohammed originally imagined.

The dispute has seen the US and China impose tariffs on hundreds ... So far, the U.S. government has exempted rare earths from tariffs on Chinese goods. Problem is, China has stockpiled all the nutrients, and the U.S., highly deficient, has the equivalent of scurvy.

China controls 80% to 90% of the rare earth market and for some elements, it has 99% control. Even when other countries mine their own deposits, the ore often must go through China for processing.

The big money is in solar farms, the mark for a KHW is over 10,000%. What we need is a smart grid. The possibilities for green energy are endless. I have been investing in green power and water and its has made me very very wealthy.
FYI how about the run Baxter.
 

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I very much hope green energy is going to unstable the world... "Venezuela, which couldn’t make it at $100 a barrel, will implode, destabilizing Latin America. It’s already started" I love this statement.


Nov 8, 2019, 11:29am
Venezuela Sinks Further Into Oblivion — Debt Level Doubles Over One Year

Venezuela’s human-made economic calamity just took a turn for the worse.

The country’s national debt is now almost double the level of the GDP. At the end of the second quarter, total borrowing hit 198.4% of GDP, up from 102.8% a year earlier, according to a recent report from the Washington D.C.-based think tank, the Institute of International Finance.

It gets worse. Those figures don’t even include what households and businesses owe. When those get added, then the total is 221% of GDP.

The data also means that Venezuela’s government is twice as indebted than is the debt-loving U.S.A. where government borrowing hit 106% of GDP at the end of last year.

At one level, Venezuela’s problem is multi-faceted.

Hyperinflation has taken root in the country in a big way. At the end of October, the annualized rate hit 9,072%, according to estimates by Steve Hanke, the world’s leading expert on hyperinflation, and professor of applied economics at The Johns Hopkins University. That ultra-high rate of inflation retards any form of an efficient economy. The higher the percentage, the more it hurts.
The economy is crashing fast. Every quarter, starting in 2016, the country has seen annualized double-digit declines in GDP, according to data from the Trading Economics website. The actual fall, reached a staggering drop of 22.5% in the third quarter of 2018, according to the latest data available from the site.
The country has made the questionable decision to take out massive loans from China. Venezuela has borrowed at least $63 billion from China since 2007, according to a separate IIF report. With the Venezuelan economy sagging, paying the interest on those debts will become increasingly difficult.
Energy production in the country has plummeted over the last half-decade even though Venezuela has the largest oil reserves anywhere on the planet. A mere 749,000 barrels of crude oil a day got pumped in September, down from almost 3 million barrels a day in early 2014. The problem is that the state-owned oil company, PDVSA, is poorly run.
In short, those four items are symptoms of Venezuela’s epic economic headache.

CARACAS — The United States banned all air transport with Venezuela on Wednesday over security concerns, further isolating the troubled South American nation by severing one of its last links to the world’s largest economy.

The Department of Homeland Security said it decided to immediately suspend all commercial and cargo flights between the United States and Venezuela because the country’s political crisis threatened the safety of passengers, aircraft and crew.

The decision will be a heavy blow for millions of Venezuelans who rely on donations or remittances from relatives abroad to survive, as the country’s crumbling economy has destroyed most of its industry and agriculture and slashed government imports. Many have relied on airline courier services from Miami to obtain scarce medication, spare parts and food.

“This will be a catastrophe for a lot of people,” said Feliciano Reyna, head of the health nonprofit Acción Solidaria, which receives medical donations from the United States through air courier services. “This will complicate enormously the transportation of humanitarian aid to the country.”
 

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i just saw the price of 100 masks NIOSH Approved • FDA Cleared Regular price$499.99, most people cant afford a mask that protects them. This is beautiful intersection for opportunity, the Coronaviruses & earnings season. I added Luckin Coffee Inc. (LK) to my day trading rotation about 6 months ago, its has more then doubled in price, well I'm hoping Coronaviruses will create more value, and drive the price down and ill be a buyer in the 20 range again. I'm very much an events driven trader, and this is perfect for many reason, they sell a product that you would consume after you get sick and want to help you get back on you feet.

Also looking at 3M to make a profit off this.

,
 

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Chinese stocks crashed 9% on Monday as markets reopened from an extended Lunar New Year holiday.
The Shanghai Composite Index is on track for its worst decline since August 2015.
The number of confirmed coronavirus infections now exceeds 17,300, with the vast majority of cases in mainland China.

I have to lower my entry point of LK sub 20$ now.
 

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I am an engineer.....if I was 20 again I would choose to be some sort of financial analyst. I think I would have loved trying to pick stocks for a living. Basically legalized gambling everyday. I would have been very good and looking at the data and trying to find theories on how to make money.

My son is a financial planner for affluent clients. We just got back from going out for dinner and discussed the market and what is going to happen. The information that he is seeing and reading is that the market will be strong again this year. Thinks the banking industry could have a strong year. The worldwide market is currently strong in the USA and Europe. Another industry that could benefit is the construction industry because of the potential infrastructure bill.

I am still concerned the market is due for a serious correction. I think it will happen fairly fast too once it starts to happen. I am currently reading The Road To Ruin by James Rickards. It is pretty dry (goes into too many minute details to make his point but he makes some good points that there is going to be some major change and what will happen).

I can give you a couple stocks to look at. Local Minnesota companies. I made a significant amount of money on Toro. I sold it early in the year but the 3 or 4 years before that it probably outperformed the S&P by about 2 to1. I have some friends in management at 3M. Pretty solid company. They seem to be performing well.

I work in the solar industry. SEDG is a company out of Israel. Your two main components are solar panels and inverters. They make the inverters so potentially they could be on every solar installation where as there are probably 300 + different solar panel manufacturers. There product is very good. They went from start up to over 60% of the market in the USA for residential installations. They dont have much of a presence in large scale solar yet. There stock has soared. The 30% tariff on solar panels just announced by Trump administration will potentially result in a slight pull back in price. Solar is not going away. Once you have something people want there is no turning back. If it comes to a free market decision solar will beat the other sources of power. The other thing about their product is ELon Musk has hooked his wagon to their inverter. He throws a certain amount of weight,

On that same line my son said that they have quite a few people taking position in lithium because it is a limited supply and is used in batteries that are in cellphones and also in other batteries.

The old saying of buy when there is blood on the street. A very wealthy friend of mine still laughs about this, After 911 the market got waxed. Boeing got waxed even more. I said the market was wrong. People were not going to quit flying. My opinion was there were 6 planes that needed to be replaced and their stock should be going up. So I purchased more Boeing stock. They have basically no competition (other than Airbus) and the entry point for competition is way too high. Of course it came back with vigor.

I think an industry with a huge upside potential right now is driverless cars. Finding a winner in the technology/sensors market that could be used in a Google car or Volvo or Apple car could be a long term winner.

I have been asked to speak at schools and Universities on renewable energy. I have said for some time the ability to store energy in a cost effective way will be the next be game changer in the energy business. I spoke at an event on Tuesday this week. Another one of the speaker's was asked about the future. He has been asked to be a guest on national news shows like MSNBC and others. Someone asked him where investment opportunities were. He said the other area that I think will be the other industry with huge investment opportunities: WATER. The day is coming where places are not going to have water and then what happens? Any company that has a cost effective solution to that problem is going to make huge amounts. Not sure who that is going to be or what the solution is going to be.

You have been around here long enough to know that there are significant amount of people that are not open to any new ideas. You can maybe use that to to your advantage. The more they dont like something .... the more you know it will be a winner.

You will have to post a stock or 2 you might like.

Solar Edge was abut $30 a share when I posted this. They continue to kick ass and take names. My guess is they will have a strong earnings report based on someone that is watching how much of their product we are buying and taking to our rep and how robust sales are. I have been buy more of this one. Popped up another $15 bucks today. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to $150.

On the residential side Enphase stock has been really good too. The residential market is about 100 times the size of the commercial and utility grade solar. So the pie is pretty big for inverters in residential market. I am not as big on their product but there are a significant amount of contractors that just sell Enphase. I might have to watch their stock and look to buy on a dip. It was $6 in June of 2018 and is at $55 today.
 

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