Update of R/L system

[gak555]

bump

 

[gak555]

Here is another twist that may work. What if you only go against the worse teams when your team is -1.5 on the road against them ?

 

[fhmesq44]

Here is another twist that may work. What if you only go against the worse teams when your team is -1.5 on the road against them ?

That would drastically limit the number of plays. Plus, the better teams will be laying - juice instead of getting + juice.

 

[kobefan08]

fhmesq44..

don't you think there is something wrong with that simulation from last year though? since last year was roughly +220 units, and SSI already made 58 units in the first 2 weeks, there is either gonna be a major losing streak ahead of slow slow days

 

[fhmesq44]

I estimated the run lines based on what the ML was from covers.com, so I may have under estimated. It could be a good start to this season and there may be a dip. Last season could have actually been a bad season. Who knows, this is all unchartered territory for all of us. I went through last season to get an idea if it was worth trying and determined it was. I can send you the spreadsheet if you wish. Additionally, I hope by removing the crap teams, that removes a fair amount of the losers. Based on my review of last season, it does.

 

[mike0187]

I'm on board with this....

For starters, I decided not to play Atlanta, Florida, or Kansas City series that started tonight

 

[kobefan08]

if you could send me the spreadsheet it would be good... my email is dee2k4@gmail.com

 

[fhmesq44]

I'm on board with this....

For starters, I decided not to play Atlanta, Florida, or Kansas City series that started tonight

I am doing a variation of this system as well and posting my plays. As noted I am deviating but playing the home team -1.5 when the shitty teams are on the road. The bad teams were really bad in this system last year so identifying them is key IMO.

 

[fhmesq44]

if you could send me the spreadsheet it would be good... my email is dee2k4@gmail.com

Done

 

[kobefan08]

thanks a lot man... apreciate it

 

[fhmesq44]

thanks a lot man... apreciate it

Any time, as I said, let me know if you have any questions or thoughts.

 

[sinnedsoul]

I estimated the run lines based on what the ML was from covers.com, so I may have under estimated. It could be a good start to this season and there may be a dip. Last season could have actually been a bad season. Who knows, this is all unchartered territory for all of us. I went through last season to get an idea if it was worth trying and determined it was. I can send you the spreadsheet if you wish. Additionally, I hope by removing the crap teams, that removes a fair amount of the losers. Based on my review of last season, it does.

i grabbed 3 years of data and i should have accurate series statistics based on the queries i wrote but i don't have any odds..

right now i'm working on a model to estimate units won/loss each year. the weakness of the model is that i have to give one constant for the RL odds.

based on tonights games, the average -1.5 RL for the away team is +210. i'd like to get an average over a much larger sample space.. anyone have this kind of data?

 

[fhmesq44]

i grabbed 3 years of data and i should have accurate series statistics based on the queries i wrote but i don't have any odds..

right now i'm working on a model to estimate units won/loss each year. the weakness of the model is that i have to give one constant for the RL odds.

based on tonights games, the average -1.5 RL for the away team is +210. i'd like to get an average over a much larger sample space.. anyone have this kind of data?

I don't think you can do it with a constant and +210 is way too high, I think something closer to +160 is more accurate. It only took me an hour or so to do the spreadsheet I did. The biggest pain in the a$$ was printing the results from covers.com. Plus, I think it is very important to have it team by team so you can see how each team does and analyze based on certain criteria.

 

[sinnedsoul]

I don't think you can do it with a constant and +210 is way too high, I think something closer to +160 is more accurate. It only took me an hour or so to do the spreadsheet I did. The biggest pain in the a$$ was printing the results from covers.com. Plus, I think it is very important to have it team by team so you can see how each team does and analyze based on certain criteria.

i agree that +210 is too high. I've plugged in +160 and the numbers look ok. I have it picking games based on either win % or road win %..

the only problem with that is that once you start only taking teams which have a good win %, their odds go down.. i'm looking at crunching some %'s by team..

i'm still going through my model to make sure i didn't screw up for a formula (or two thousand)..

 

[sinnedsoul]

oh ya, can you fire your spreadsheet to sinnedsoul@gmail.com

thx.

 

[fhmesq44]

oh ya, can you fire your spreadsheet to sinnedsoul@gmail.com

thx.

Done

 

[MathProf]

My guess is that after both road fav's and road dogs are
averaged, the average line is +115 and the -1.5 runline
adds an average of about +70, resulting in an average
road team runline of about +185.

I applied these estimates to several recent days and it seems
reasonably accurate.

MP

 

[Realist]

Hey SSI, so if you had three losses in week 1 series set 1. Does it mean that you lost 1 whole series?

Thanks

 

[neomartic]

I'm jumping into this system today. Here's my card...I'm pretty sure this follows the system:

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) for Game +136
St Louis Cardinals (-1.5) vs Pittsburgh Pirates for Game +120
Florida Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) for Game +119
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets (-1.5) for Game +136
Cleveland Indians (-1.5) vs Baltimore Orioles for Game +139
Tampa Bay Devil Rays vs Boston Red Sox (-1.5) for Game -105
New York Yankees (-1.5) vs Toronto Blue Jays for Game -106
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox (-1.5) for Game -119

 

[neomartic]

played all road teams that were -1.5 on the RL except the "teams not worth a shitt" in which I took whoever they were playing on the -1.5 RL