gak555 said:Here is another twist that may work. What if you only go against the worse teams when your team is -1.5 on the road against them ?
mike0187 said:I'm on board with this....
For starters, I decided not to play Atlanta, Florida, or Kansas City series that started tonight
kobefan08 said:if you could send me the spreadsheet it would be good... my email is dee2k4@gmail.com
fhmesq44 said:I estimated the run lines based on what the ML was from covers.com, so I may have under estimated. It could be a good start to this season and there may be a dip. Last season could have actually been a bad season. Who knows, this is all unchartered territory for all of us. I went through last season to get an idea if it was worth trying and determined it was. I can send you the spreadsheet if you wish. Additionally, I hope by removing the crap teams, that removes a fair amount of the losers. Based on my review of last season, it does.
sinnedsoul said:i grabbed 3 years of data and i should have accurate series statistics based on the queries i wrote but i don't have any odds..
right now i'm working on a model to estimate units won/loss each year. the weakness of the model is that i have to give one constant for the RL odds.
based on tonights games, the average -1.5 RL for the away team is +210. i'd like to get an average over a much larger sample space.. anyone have this kind of data?
fhmesq44 said:I don't think you can do it with a constant and +210 is way too high, I think something closer to +160 is more accurate. It only took me an hour or so to do the spreadsheet I did. The biggest pain in the a$$ was printing the results from covers.com. Plus, I think it is very important to have it team by team so you can see how each team does and analyze based on certain criteria.