UFC 80/Roy Jones Jr. Vs. Felix Trinidad Picks and Analysis Thread 1/19/2008

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Honestly Jake I don't prefer playing dogs or favs but I play the guys at the right number. I don't have an opinion on everything and I think you do which is where we clash a bit because when I do have an opinion it is usually very strong and with a lot of evidence behind it. Not that it is bad that you have an opinion on every fight but I just don't say much unless I am betting it pretty heavy myself or have a reason for trying to keep people from throwing there money away on either side. MMA is a chalk fest and can be really tough to bet at times if you only bet dogs but choose your spots right and you will do OK in this sport.

See my approach on the card on Wed night is that there is a better dog to bet on the show than Burkman as Alvin Robinson versus Nate Diaz has some much less mystery involved. We all know that Nate Diaz brings good Jits to the board and has decent stand up while Robinson has a very strong ground game and pushes the fight with his power. Robinson @ +150 will look to overpower Diaz much like Gamburyan was doing in the final and I think he has a great shot at doing it. Just my 2 cents but that is the dog I would be playing if I had to play one on Wed.

More than likely though I will end up small on Cote and thats about it. Nothing I am really in love with on this show as the matchups were pretty well put together and I don't see a significant amount of value on anything. That being said only three fights have been released so maybe there will be a couple of surprises out there for me.

On paper, Robinson looks good and I thought about playing it. That being said, I don't think the UFC puts him against someone they don't expect him to be able to beat at this point in his career where they are still building him up. That alone made me think twice about Robinson and lay off.
 

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On paper, Robinson looks good and I thought about playing it. That being said, I don't think the UFC puts him against someone they don't expect him to be able to beat at this point in his career where they are still building him up. That alone made me think twice about Robinson and lay off.

Think twice about it because they are building him up? That doesn't make much sense since you played against Kendall Grove the other night who also won the Ultimate Fighter and has been beaten twice in a row. The bottom line is these Ultimate Fighter winners do lose in their first 2 or 3 fights after winning the show as Forrest Griffin was beaten by Tito, Joe Stevenson was stopped by Josh Neer, Kendall Grove was beaten by Patrick Cote and more recently Rivera, and then Michael Bisping was beaten by Rashad Evans. Ultimate Fighter winners are grossly overhyped and I don't think as protected as much as some think by the UFC.

If your only reason for not playing Robinson is because Diaz had a fluke win in the Ultimate Fighter final then I suggest you rethink it and jump on Robinson because Diaz is not as protected as some might like to think.
 

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For being somewhat of a supposed Contender Burkman's stamina is AWFULL. if he actually had good stamina maybe he could win. I think it's possible for burkman to win round 1 but get picked apart after that due to him gassing out. I don't think very highly of Robinson BTW. he was dominated in round 1 by Gurgel who I consider to be a pretty mediocre fighter.
 

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For being somewhat of a supposed Contender Burkman's stamina is AWFULL. if he actually had good stamina maybe he could win. I think it's possible for burkman to win round 1 but get picked apart after that due to him gassing out. I don't think very highly of Robinson BTW. he was dominated in round 1 by Gurgel who I consider to be a pretty mediocre fighter.

I agree with you on Burkmans stamina 100%. Guy is a tool IMO. He doesn't train hard and I heard him on the radio the other day stirring up a bunch of shit with Phil Baroni. I would think a guy who is Main Eventing a show the next week would be worried about his next opponent who happens to be very dangerous and not a guy who is not even under contract with the UFC.

Your one of the reasons that is keeping me off of Robinson as we messaged about this last month either on here or across the street.I made a very small wager on Robinson when the numbers originally opened which I am going to hold on to but I will hang out with that.

I used the odds on him in comparison to Burkman as I think Robinson still has a better shot of winning than Burkman does. Burkman is a no talent hack who I think the UFC should have cut a long time ago.
 

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