Honestly Jake I don't prefer playing dogs or favs but I play the guys at the right number. I don't have an opinion on everything and I think you do which is where we clash a bit because when I do have an opinion it is usually very strong and with a lot of evidence behind it. Not that it is bad that you have an opinion on every fight but I just don't say much unless I am betting it pretty heavy myself or have a reason for trying to keep people from throwing there money away on either side. MMA is a chalk fest and can be really tough to bet at times if you only bet dogs but choose your spots right and you will do OK in this sport.
See my approach on the card on Wed night is that there is a better dog to bet on the show than Burkman as Alvin Robinson versus Nate Diaz has some much less mystery involved. We all know that Nate Diaz brings good Jits to the board and has decent stand up while Robinson has a very strong ground game and pushes the fight with his power. Robinson @ +150 will look to overpower Diaz much like Gamburyan was doing in the final and I think he has a great shot at doing it. Just my 2 cents but that is the dog I would be playing if I had to play one on Wed.
More than likely though I will end up small on Cote and thats about it. Nothing I am really in love with on this show as the matchups were pretty well put together and I don't see a significant amount of value on anything. That being said only three fights have been released so maybe there will be a couple of surprises out there for me.
On paper, Robinson looks good and I thought about playing it. That being said, I don't think the UFC puts him against someone they don't expect him to be able to beat at this point in his career where they are still building him up. That alone made me think twice about Robinson and lay off.