UFC 80/Roy Jones Jr. Vs. Felix Trinidad Picks and Analysis Thread 1/19/2008

[skinnylarry]

My score card continued

Round 2
10-9 Jones Jr

Total score: 20-20

espn has it 20-18 tito

 

[Degz]

My score card continued

Round 3
10-9 Trinidad

Total
29-28 Tito

Jones doing a lot of taunting, but not throwing any punches.

 

[Degz]

espn has it 20-18 tito

yes

 

[Voodoo7]

is this site safe ? virus threat ?

No problems for me, have used it a few times.

 

[Degz]

REPEAT THIS IS MY SCORECARD. NOT ESPN, NOT HBO

Round 4

Jones Jr. 10-9

Total: 38-38

 

[WrongSideWarrior]

**NOTE TO UFC BETTORS: SATURDAYS SHOW HAS A 10AM PST POST TIME FOR THE UNDERCARD DUE TO THE FIGHTS BEING IN ENGLAND. MAIN CARDS FIGHTS GO OFF THE BOARD AT 12PM PST. GOOD LUCK**

Heres my ticket for Saturday 1/19/08

Gouveia -130 **** I think he will dominate this fight everywhere. Lambert is a part time fighter who's only advantage in this fight is strength. At this level you better bring a little bit more to the table.

Hardonk -270 ** Number was off from what I have. Hardonk should dominate this fight standing and get the W. I really wouldn't play this fight at the current numbers unless you were looking to parlay it.

Davis -300 *** Davis has really started to come in to his own and Cris had him under priced at the opener. Number has moved a bit to far again. May be worth a look on a parlay.

Penn -260 **** Penn will dominate this fight standing before the fight eventually hits the floor and he gets a submission victory sometime in the early part of the fight.

Very chalky show and the only dog I really think is live would be Lee who is fight Sakara. Still don't feel comfortable playing the fight though.

Boxing 1/19/08 MSG

Roy Jones Jr. By Decision +235 *** I don't think RJJ has the pop anymore to KO Trinidad and this fight will hit the cards.

Which is why...

Trinidad By Decision +900 *** Also makes sense.

If you can find the Draw 30/1 like it has been some places then it may be a decent bet as both fighters are HBO guys who may be looking to get another fight.

Ended up 5-0 today. Up 17 units.

Actually lost the Trinidad bet by decision but hit Roy by decision so I am counting the whole thing as a win since I had 3 units on Roy @ +235...

Ended up being a very good night. Hope everyone else did well.

 

[HinesWard86]

Wrongsidewarrior......very nice job. You have certainly been impressive in UFC thus far. Congratulations to you sir.

 

[WrongSideWarrior]

Wrongsidewarrior......very nice job. You have certainly been impressive in UFC thus far. Congratulations to you sir.

Thanks buddy.

I appreciate the kind words.

 

[WrongSideWarrior]

<TABLE onmouseover="changeto(event, '#E6E6E6')" style="WIDTH: 100%" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#E6E6E6')" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_8><TD colSpan=3>UFC -Ultimate Fight Night-The Pearl, Nevada: Lightweights

</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_9><TD style="WIDTH: 25%">Wed 1/23</TD><TD colSpan=2>Alvin Robinson vs Nate Diaz</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD>06:00 PM</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 53%">261 Alvin Robinson</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 22%">+148</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD> </TD><TD>262 Nate Diaz</TD><TD>-158</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE onmouseover="changeto(event, '#E6E6E6')" style="WIDTH: 100%" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#E6E6E6')" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_10><TD colSpan=3>UFC -Ultimate Fight Night-The Pearl, Nevada: Middleweights

</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_11><TD style="WIDTH: 25%">Wed 1/23</TD><TD colSpan=2>Patrick Cote vs Drew McFedries</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD>06:00 PM</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 53%">251 Patrick Cote</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 22%">-133</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD> </TD><TD>252 Drew McFedries</TD><TD>+123</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE onmouseover="changeto(event, '#E6E6E6')" style="WIDTH: 100%" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#E6E6E6')" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_12><TD colSpan=3>UFC -Ultimate Fight Night-The Pearl, Nevada: Welterweights

</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_13><TD style="WIDTH: 25%">Wed 1/23</TD><TD colSpan=2>Mike Swick vs. Josh Burkman</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD>07:30 PM</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 53%">241 Mike Swick</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 22%">-171</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD> </TD><TD>242 Josh Burkman</TD><TD>+161</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[teazeman]

very nice work Wrongside, good to see you making a positive contribution to the members.

 

[JakeT.]

Burkman is the play for Fight Night IMO.

 

[WrongSideWarrior]

Burkman is the play for Fight Night IMO.

I liked Burkman initially but Swick is going to beat him. Burkman has had his head up his ass for the training camp and will lose to Mike Swick who has his back against the wall.

 

[JakeT.]

I liked Burkman initially but Swick is going to beat him. Burkman has had his head up his ass for the training camp and will lose to Mike Swick who has his back against the wall.

Swick has never had to deal with a cut to this weight before and I think that will have an effect. Burkman is one of the bigger weight cutters in the game and should be larger than Swick come fight time. Burkman is also the superior wrestler and should control the action IMO. This one should be closer to a pick em as far as I'm concerned.

 

[WrongSideWarrior]

Swick has never had to deal with a cut to this weight before and I think that will have an effect. Burkman is one of the bigger weight cutters in the game and should be larger than Swick come fight time. Burkman is also the superior wrestler and should control the action IMO. This one should be closer to a pick em as far as I'm concerned.

Swick has better stand up and is more versed on the ground. He also will be VERY big at this weight and has shown that he comes prepared to fight unlike Burkman who takes a lackadaisical approach to his preperation. Swick is -200 here and the only reason he should not be higher is due to this being his first time at this weight class.

 

[JakeT.]

I don't really get the Swick hype. I know he had a good streak of ending fights early but lost a decision (unanimous) last time out to Okami, a guy who fights pretty similar to Burkman as far as being on top and controlling position. He has wins over journeymen UFC fighters but nothing that makes me think he should be favored in a match where he is dropping a weight class against a bigger wrestler. Burkman's only losses were to Karo (incredible judo), Jon Fitch (incredible wrestler), and Jeremy Horn (incredible jui jitsu). Swick is not going to be incredible at anything IMO. People can say Swick has the jui jitsu to give Burkman problems but he really doesn't have a single impressive submission win. Swick's best bet is a guillotine on a Burkman takedown attempt but Burkman will be too strong to hold IMO.

 

[WrongSideWarrior]

I don't really get the Swick hype. I know he had a good streak of ending fights early but lost a decision (unanimous) last time out to Okami, a guy who fights pretty similar to Burkman as far as being on top and controlling position. He has wins over journeymen UFC fighters but nothing that makes me think he should be favored in a match where he is dropping a weight class against a bigger wrestler. Burkman's only losses were to Karo (incredible judo), Jon Fitch (incredible wrestler), and Jeremy Horn (incredible jui jitsu). Swick is not going to be incredible at anything IMO. People can say Swick has the jui jitsu to give Burkman problems but he really doesn't have a single impressive submission win. Swick's best bet is a guillotine on a Burkman takedown attempt but Burkman will be too strong to hold IMO.

Okami and Burkman should never be mentioned in the same breath as Okami's skill set is much better than Burkmans. Okami beat Swick due to the size advantage which Burkman WILL NOT have in this fight. Swick did not embarass himself against Okami either as he put up a great effort that made the fight wide open going in to the final stanza.

Your best argument is that Burkman was beaten by great fighters but come on who has he ever beaten? Chad Reiner, Forrest Petz (Who he won a very close decision against), Josh Neer, Sam Morgan, and Drew Fickett are not a list of Hall of Fame MMA Fighters.

Although Swicks resume isn't much better he has dominated and defeated both David Loiseau and Joe Riggs who have competed in the Main Event of past UFC's fighting for titles.

Look for Swick to push the pace here and get in to Burkmans face with a jab which will frustrate Burkman in to taking crazy shots and eventually either getting KO'ed on the way in or landing in a guillotine choke.

I personally can't play this fight to heavy due to all of the question marks surrounding both fighters but there is clearly only one side to play if your going to play it.

 

[JakeT.]

Okami and Burkman should never be mentioned in the same breath as Okami's skill set is much better than Burkmans. Okami beat Swick due to the size advantage which Burkman WILL NOT have in this fight. Swick did not embarass himself against Okami either as he put up a great effort that made the fight wide open going in to the final stanza.

Your best argument is that Burkman was beaten by great fighters but come on who has he ever beaten? Chad Reiner, Forrest Petz (Who he won a very close decision against), Josh Neer, Sam Morgan, and Drew Fickett are not a list of Hall of Fame MMA Fighters.

Although Swicks resume isn't much better he has dominated and defeated both David Loiseau and Joe Riggs who have competed in the Main Event of past UFC's fighting for titles.

Look for Swick to push the pace here and get in to Burkmans face with a jab which will frustrate Burkman in to taking crazy shots and eventually either getting KO'ed on the way in or landing in a guillotine choke.

I personally can't play this fight to heavy due to all of the question marks surrounding both fighters but there is clearly only one side to play if your going to play it.

With all the uncertainty, I like the doggie.

GL to ya once again. :toast:

 

[WrongSideWarrior]

With all the uncertainty, I like the doggie.

GL to ya once again. :toast:

Same to you...

I am starting to think you just like fading my opinions. :nono5:

 

[JakeT.]

Same to you...

I am starting to think you just like fading my opinions. :nono5:

Haha we sure seem to disagree on everything. I play a ton of dogs in MMA and have done well and you play a ton of favs (or so it appears) and have done well so we were bound to clash on some of these.

 

[WrongSideWarrior]

Haha we sure seem to disagree on everything. I play a ton of dogs in MMA and have done well and you play a ton of favs (or so it appears) and have done well so we were bound to clash on some of these.

Honestly Jake I don't prefer playing dogs or favs but I play the guys at the right number. I don't have an opinion on everything and I think you do which is where we clash a bit because when I do have an opinion it is usually very strong and with a lot of evidence behind it. Not that it is bad that you have an opinion on every fight but I just don't say much unless I am betting it pretty heavy myself or have a reason for trying to keep people from throwing there money away on either side. MMA is a chalk fest and can be really tough to bet at times if you only bet dogs but choose your spots right and you will do OK in this sport.

See my approach on the card on Wed night is that there is a better dog to bet on the show than Burkman as Alvin Robinson versus Nate Diaz has some much less mystery involved. We all know that Nate Diaz brings good Jits to the board and has decent stand up while Robinson has a very strong ground game and pushes the fight with his power. Robinson @ +150 will look to overpower Diaz much like Gamburyan was doing in the final and I think he has a great shot at doing it. Just my 2 cents but that is the dog I would be playing if I had to play one on Wed.

More than likely though I will end up small on Cote and thats about it. Nothing I am really in love with on this show as the matchups were pretty well put together and I don't see a significant amount of value on anything. That being said only three fights have been released so maybe there will be a couple of surprises out there for me.