The Complete Guide to UFC 206
from Patrick Wyman - The Bleacher Report
Zach Makovsky (19-7; 3-3 UFC) vs. Dustin Ortiz (15-6; 4-4 UFC)
Veteran flyweights Makovsky and Ortiz open the proceedings on Fight Pass. Both men have lost two in a row and are desperately in need of a win, as the loser stands a good chance of being cut despite dropping bouts to excellent fighters. Ortiz's two losses came to Jussier Formiga and Wilson Reis, while Makovsky lost to Joseph Benavidez and John Dodson.
Makovsky, a southpaw, relies on a crisp, technical wrestling game that he sets up with strikes. He's a sharp, stifling grappler who excels in transitions. Ortiz also loves to scramble and employs a nice mixture of wrestling and grappling to maintain tight control on the ground. He's a decent combination striker as well but prefers to be tied up.
Prediction: Makovsky and Ortiz are similar fighters, but Makovsky is a bit more skilled as a wrestler and grappler and isn't giving up much, if anything, at striking range. Makovsky will win a competitive but clear decision.
Jason Saggo (12-2; 3-1 UFC) vs. Rustam Khabilov (20-3; 6-2 UFC)
Canada's Saggo draws Russia's Khabilov in a solid lightweight scrap. Saggo has won two in a row since tearing his ACL, knocking out Justin Salas and then eking out a split decision over Leandro Silva. Khabilov was once a top prospect, but his momentum has stalled despite winning his last three fights.
Saggo can do a bit of everything, with a crisp striking arsenal, solid takedowns and an opportunistic, technically sound grappling game on the mat. He's not much of a defensive wrestler, though. Khabilov is a great athlete blessed with serious speed and power, but he works at a glacially slow pace and has a habit of giving away rounds. It's a pity, because he has outstanding takedowns and good technique on the feet.
Prediction: It wouldn't be surprising if Khabilov dropped a round or two due to inactivity, and Saggo is the kind of fighter who finds ways to win, but the Russian is a superior athlete and a much better wrestler. Khabilov will take a decision.
John Makdessi (14-5; 7-5 UFC) vs. Lando Vannata (8-1; 0-1 UFC)
Vannata made a strong impression in his UFC debut, giving top contender Tony Ferguson everything he could handle on short notice before falling short in the second round. He draws Canada's Makdessi, a veteran of 12 UFC bouts, in his return engagement. Makdessi won a tight decision over Mehdi Baghdad in his last outing to snap a two-fight losing streak.
Vannata is quick, powerful and technically sound, with a creative, diverse striking game built on excellent footwork, command of angles and movement. He sets a long range with heavy front, side, round and spinning kicks and then either counters as his opponent comes in or blitzes with heavy punching combinations. He wrestles well and uses his level changes to set up strikes.
Makdessi is a pure striker, and one with excellent fundamentals and technique. The jab is the foundation of his game, and he supports it with a crisp right hand. Round, front and spinning kicks provide a nice complement to his boxing arsenal, and he isn't afraid to go flashy from time to time.
Prediction: Makdessi is a tricky striker whose high volume and technical skill could trouble Vannata, but the New Jersey native has the look of a special prospect with his unorthodox striking game and athleticism. Vannata will find a knockout shot in the second round.
Mitch Gagnon (12-3; 4-2 UFC) vs. Matthew Lopez (8-1; 0-1 UFC)
Canada's Gagnon returns to action after a two-year layoff and draws Arizona's Lopez. Gagnon won four straight but fell short in a competitive fight with Renan Barao in December 2014. Lopez had a tough debut fight against Rani Yahya and tapped out in the third round.
Gagnon is short for the division at 5'5" but makes up for it with speed and explosiveness. He puts together nice head-body punching combinations on the feet and melds his striking repertoire with technical takedowns. On the mat, he has a gift for getting to the back and finishing.
Lopez is a powerful, athletic fighter with big power in his hands, but he mostly relies on potent takedowns, heavy ground strikes and opportunistic submissions.
Prediction: Gagnon has been out for a long time, but he's more skilled on the feet and has a nasty submission game on the ground. He'll win a decision.
Valerie Letourneau (8-5; 3-2 UFC) vs. Viviane Pereira (11-0; 0-0 UFC)
Former title challenger Letourneau takes on debuting Brazilian Pereira in a good matchup at 115 pounds. Pereira's competition has been solid if not outstanding on the regional scene, and she enters the UFC undefeated. Letourneau won three in a row to begin her UFC career but has lost her last two—the title fight to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and her return bout against Joanne Calderwood.
Striking is Letourneau's wheelhouse. She has great timing on her counters and throws a vicious left kick, especially after her crisp right hand. The occasional takedown adds variety. Pereira is tiny for the division at 5'0", but makes up for it with aggression and pressure. She wings hard punching combinations in the pocket, hits powerful takedowns and drops bombs from top position.
Prediction: The 5'7" Letourneau has a huge size advantage and the skills to stick and move. She'll win a decision.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (8-2; 4-2 UFC) vs. Drew Dober (17-7, 1 NC; 3-3, 1 NC UFC)
Quebec's Aubin-Mercier draws Nebraska's Dober in a solid lightweight matchup. Aubin-Mercier was the runner-up on The Ultimate Fighter: Nations and has seen mixed results since then as he has defeated low-level fighters but come up short when he has faced better competition. Dober has won two in a row and most recently knocked out Jason Gonzalez in September.
Aubin-Mercier is big, strong and athletic. The southpaw can strike a bit and throws heavy kicks but prefers chains of trips and shot takedowns and working to the back on the mat. The rear-naked choke is his specialty. Dober, a southpaw, is a technically sound kickboxer. Crisp punch-kick combinations are his wheelhouse, and he can wrestle well enough to stay standing.
Prediction: If Aubin-Mercier can't work takedowns, Dober is a good enough striker to give him trouble on the feet. If it goes to the ground, though, it's Aubin-Mercier's fight to lose. The Canadian will find a submission in the second round.
Nikita Krylov (21-4; 6-2 UFC) vs. Misha Cirkunov (12-2; 3-0 UFC)
Cirkunov and Krylov face each other in a matchup that happens about as often as a unicorn sighting: a meeting of true light heavyweight prospects. The 24-year-old Ukrainian Krylov ran his winning streak to five with a knockout of Ed Herman in July, while the Latvian-Canadian Cirkunov submitted Ion Cutelaba in June.
Krylov is big for the division at 6'3" and has finishing skills on the feet and on the mat. Aggression is the hallmark of his game, and while he doesn't have one-punch knockout power, he drowns his opponent in a constant stream of punch-kick combinations. He's especially dangerous in transitions and has a knack for finding guillotines and getting to the back, but he's not a great defensive wrestler.
Cirkunov is also big at 6'3", and he puts his size to good use with slick trips and throws in the clinch, which he combines with a nasty array of inside strikes. He's a slick top-control artist who passes well, drops bombing ground strikes and is always on the lookout for the submission. Striking isn't his strongest suit, and he's a bit wooden, but the southpaw has legitimate power and is putting together better combinations.
Prediction: This is an even money fight and a great matchup of rising young fighters. Cirkunov is a much better wrestler, but he gets most of his takedowns from the clinch, and Krylov is no picnic on the inside. At range, Krylov is hittable but a far more fluid and natural striker with much better volume. It's a coin flip, but the pick is Krylov by knockout in the third round.
Jordan Mein (29-10; 3-2 UFC) vs. Emil Weber Meek (8-2-1, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC)
Norway's Meek, who is best known for knocking out former UFC and World Series of Fighting competitor Rousimar Palhares, makes his UFC debut against returning Canadian veteran Mein. Mein last fought in January 2015, when he fell to Thiago Alves by knockout. Prior to that, he finished Mike Pyle and took a decision from Hernani Perpetuo.
This should be a great action fight between a pair of violent competitors.
Meek is a thick 5'11" and boasts excellent physical tools. He's quick, athletic and has big power in his hands to go with excellent killer instinct. At range, Meek is a solid but uninspiring striker who flicks a consistent jab, sharp kicks and decent counters. Any shot can finish the fight.
Defensive wrestling is a strength for Meek, and he's not easy to keep on the mat. He does his best work in scrambles, where he constantly looks for opportunities to land punches and elbows. This is where he's most dangerous.
Mein is a crisp, skilled striker. Boxing is the foundation of his game, and he relies on a consistent jab and heavy head-body combinations, all of which are set up by gorgeous feints. He does an outstanding job of reading his opponent's hands and head movement to place his shots. The occasional cracking low kick and standing elbow adds variety.
Serviceable takedown defense mostly keeps Mein standing, and he can hit the occasional takedown of his own for good measure. He's not an especially dangerous grappler, though.
Prediction
Mein's long layoff and what he's been doing in the meantime are worth questioning, but he's a more experienced, deeper striker than Meek. The Canadian will find the knockout in the first round.
Tim Kennedy (18-5; 3-1 UFC) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (12-2; 7-2 UFC)
Fresh off yet another missed attempt at making 170 pounds—this one at UFC 205 in November—The Ultimate Fighter winner Gastelum once again moves up to 185 pounds. He draws Kennedy, who was also scheduled to fight at UFC 205 until Rashad Evans was forced to pull out shortly before the bout. Kennedy hasn't fought since a controversial knockout loss to Yoel Romero in September 2014.
It's hard to say what will happen to Gastelum if he wins, given his repeated history of missing weight at 170 pounds. If Kennedy takes the bout, though, he'll be right back in the mix at the top of the middleweight division.
Kennedy is short for the weight class at 5'11", but he makes up for it with great strength and by fighting long on the feet. At range, Kennedy consistently tosses out front and round kicks, and despite his lack of height, he manages to set his preferred distance rather than getting stuck on the end of his opponent's shots.
When he commits to a punch, he carries power in his hands but doesn't throw much volume and rarely works in combinations. Kennedy isn't helpless on the feet, but if the whole fight stays standing, it doesn't bode well for him.
The real heart of Kennedy's game lies in his wrestling and grappling repertoire. When he gets his hands on his opponent, either due to pressuring toward the fence or because of a reactive shot, Kennedy is stifling. He chains together singles, doubles and triples into a seamless, relentless chain that forces his opponent to defend for minutes at a time.
When Kennedy succeeds in dragging the fight to the mat, he's nearly impossible to shake off. He moves smoothly from guard to half-guard to mount, and when his opponent tries to scramble, he's happy to move with him into wrestling-style rides or to take the back in the transition. He's always a step ahead, and while he's not a punishing ground striker or an elite submission threat, he's one of the best control grapplers in MMA.
Gastelum will be tiny for the division at 5'9", but the southpaw is quick, athletic and carries real power in his hands. Aggression is the hallmark of his game, and while he operates at a fast pace and drowns his opponent in volume, it's a studied, measured kind of pressure.
The Arizona native tosses out a steady, consistent southpaw jab to gauge the distance, set a rhythm and force his opponent backward. The jab-cross sequence is the foundation of his game, and he fires it off early and often. He's also a sharp counterpuncher and excels at working into the pocket, drawing out a response and then firing off a sharp combination. Hard, low kicks add a nice complement.
An explosive double-leg takedown serves as a change of pace for Gastelum. He's not a great defensive wrestler, though, and while he excels in scrambles with moves to the back and his front headlock, he can get trapped by better grapplers.
Prediction
This is an interesting matchup. Kennedy has been on the shelf for more than two years and is now 37 years old, both of which need to be taken into account here, but in broad outlines, the fight favors him.
Gastelum has never been a great defensive wrestler and is not that difficult to control on the ground, which would seem to play right into Kennedy's specialties. If Gastelum can keep this standing, he should have a substantial edge, but that seems unlikely. Kennedy will take a decision.
Cub Swanson (23-7; 8-3 UFC) vs. Doo Ho Choi (14-1; 3-0 UFC)
South Korea's Choi gets a big opportunity against the talented veteran Swanson.
Choi is one of the most exciting prospects in the division and has blown the doors off his three UFC opponents, knocking out Thiago Tavares, Sam Sicilia and Juan Manuel Puig in a combined four minutes, 33 seconds. Swanson put together a six-fight winning streak a few years ago but then dropped consecutive fights to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway. He has since rebounded by winning decisions over Hacran Dias and Tatsuya Kawajiri.
If Choi wins, he'll be the next big thing in a division that is undergoing serious turnover at the top. Swanson is clinging to a spot among the featherweight elite, and at 33 with 12 years of professional experience, he needs this win to remain relevant.
Choi is an aggressive counterpuncher. He likes to press forward, flicking a sharp jab and heavy kicks, until he gets into the pocket. Once he's in range, he waits for the opponent to throw before responding with vicious, fight-ending counter combinations. Both hands carry knockout power, and he has the timing, speed and craft necessary to clip just about anyone in the division. He's even willing to try flying knees as a counter.
The flip side to Choi's aggression and craft is a willingness to brawl. He usually comes out on top in these wild exchanges because of his raw power, but he gives up his defense and some of the craft that makes him so good.
That's the extent of Choi's game. He's a competent defensive wrestler and isn't easy to hold down, and he can occasionally hit trips of his own. On top, he hits hard and can work some control, but that's it.
Despite his advancing years, Swanson remains exceptionally athletic and quick of both hand and foot. Striking is his wheelhouse, and while he's unorthodox, his game builds on a solid fundamental foundation. Footwork, angles, feints and excellent shot selection combined with serious power make Swanson a dangerous fighter.
Swanson prefers to keep his hands low as he circles, cuts angles and moves his head on his way in. Crisp jabs and the occasional cracking kick will score and keep his opponent busy, but it's sharp punching combinations, especially on the counter, that form the heart of his game.
Volume has never been Swanson's strong suit, and he has slowed enough to where he occasionally has trouble pulling the trigger. More seriously, his chin appears to be worn, and flush shots have wobbled him in the recent past.
The rest of Swanson's game is a mixed bag. He's not a great defensive wrestler, though it's not easy to get a clean shot at him; on the other hand, he has a nice arsenal of trips and throws he could stand to use more often. He's too content to play defense from his back rather than scramble, while on top he mostly controls.
Prediction
This feels like a changing-of-the-guard kind of fight. Swanson has the depth of craft and speed to give Choi serious problems, especially if he can mix in some takedowns, but Choi's aggression and power should be the difference here. Choi will find the knockout shot in the second round.
Donald Cerrone (31-7, 1 NC; 18-4 UFC) vs. Matt Brown (20-15; 13-9 UFC)
Veterans Cerrone and Brown meet in a dream matchup of accomplished action fighters. Cerrone lost to Rafael Dos Anjos for a second time last December, but since then, he has reinvented himself as a welterweight. Alex Oliveira, Patrick Cote and Rick Story have all fallen to the improving Cerrone.
Brown is moving the opposite direction; the 35-year-old has lost four of his last five, including a knockout to Jake Ellenberger and a submission to Demian Maia.
If Cerrone wins, he'll be on the cusp of a title shot in a wide-open division. A victory for Brown would stave off his ongoing career decline and buy him a few more fights to prove he's still among the elite.
Cerrone has made legitimate improvements since coming to 170 pounds. Pressure was always his downfall when fighting at lightweight, whether the opponent was Nate Diaz or Dos Anjos. At welterweight, however, he has shown improved footwork, better counters and reactive takedowns.
The combination of those three keeps his back off the fence and makes his opponent less able to walk him down without consequence. At heart, Cerrone is an outside striker who wants to maintain the distance to land crisp, technical punch-kick sequences. When he finds his timing and range, Cerrone drops a steady diet of cracking kicks at all three levels and sharp punching combinations.
To do that, however, Cerrone needs space. In the past, he had a bad habit of moving backward in straight lines and eating punches with his back to the fence, but he now does a much better job of pivoting out or moving his head and countering in the pocket before getting back to a safe distance. Alternatively, he's happy to grab ahold of a clinch, land a few sharp shots and then break off.
Wrestling has always been a strong secondary skill set for Cerrone, and he's using it more effectively than ever. He has outstanding timing on his reactive shots and excels at changing levels to catch a pressuring opponent with a double or a knee tap. Defensively, Cerrone isn't perfect, but especially in open space, he shows off a quick sprawl and excellent technique.
On the mat, Cerrone is venomous. He has an active, dangerous guard that combines triangles, omoplatas and sweeps. On top, he passes quickly and isn't afraid to give up position for a submission attempt. He's especially dangerous in scrambles and has a great move to the back.
Brown is a pressure fighter by nature. His whole game revolves around aggressive forward movement, cutting off his opponent's escape angles and forcing him to the fence, where Brown can either unload strikes or grab ahold of the clinch.
While he doesn't have the pressure game of a Dos Anjos or Conor McGregor, Brown is still technically proficient with his combination of forward movement and strikes. In broad outlines, he pushes his opponent backward while using small steps and arcing strikes, namely round kicks, to attack the space into which the opponent would like to escape. Brown is surprisingly quick as he does this and doesn't mind lunging a bit.
All of Brown's strikes carry power, and he's durable enough to eat a shot to give one back. He has something of a glass liver, though, and has issues with strikes to the body. He doesn't like to exchange, either, which means his pressure can be shut down by an opponent willing to stand his ground and throw back at him.
The clinch is Brown's wheelhouse. He's a whirlwind of motion on the inside, switching between collar ties, underhooks, overhooks and frames, all the while pulling his opponent off balance and dropping in knees, elbows and short punches. Slick trips and dumps add another dimension for opponents to worry about.
Defensive wrestling has been a problem for Brown, and while he's improved as a grappler, he's not much of a threat from his back. He has a bad habit of giving up his neck or his back as he scrambles to his feet. From top position, though, Brown is nasty. He has great posture and packs power in his ground strikes; scrambles are another strength.
Prediction
Brown might be past his peak, but it's still a tricky matchup for the former lightweight. Brown's pressure could be a serious problem if Cerrone's footwork and stick-and-move games aren't on point, and in the clinch, Brown's sheer size and technical acumen are a tall order for the smaller fighter.
With that said, the matchup still favors Cerrone by a large margin. Reactive takedowns should be key, and once the fight hits the mat, it's all Cerrone. He'll submit Brown in the second round.
Max Holloway (16-3; 12-3 UFC) vs. Anthony Pettis (19-5; 6-4 UFC)
Hawaii's Holloway looks to add one more win to his streak as he tries for a 10th consecutive victory and an interim title against former lightweight champion Pettis.
Holloway has run through most of the featherweight division during his current run, taking out Ricardo Lamas, Jeremy Stephens, Charles Oliveira and Cub Swanson in his four most recent outings. Pettis, by contrast, has struggled of late. A win over Oliveira in his debut at 145 pounds got Pettis back on track, but prior to that he had lost three straight to Rafael Dos Anjos, Eddie Alvarez and Edson Barboza.
The winner will walk away with a belt, albeit a somewhat absurd one, and more importantly, a shot at newly recrowned featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo.
Holloway is a smooth, technical and intelligent striker with great size at 5'11". Everything he does in the cage is built on rock-solid fundamentals, especially crisp, tight footwork that he can put to a variety of purposes depending on his foe. His command of pivots, sidesteps and angles is some of the best in the sport and consistently puts him in position to land strikes while avoiding his opponent's.
If Holloway's matchup wants to pressure, that footwork allows Holloway to keep his back off the fence and maintain his preferred long distance while still creating opportunities to land strikes. If Holloway's opponent wants to stick and move, that footwork allows Holloway to cut off the cage, force his foe to the fence and stick him on the end of his long reach.
For the most part, Holloway's arsenal is meat and potatoes. He can fight from both stances but mostly prefers southpaw these days; in orthodox, he relies more on his jab, but in southpaw, he probes and measures distance with his lead hand before committing to a straight left-right hook combination or flicking a sharp front kick. The occasional spinning kick adds flash.
The real genius in Holloway's combination game is in how he throws, not what he throws. He excels at finding dominant or blind angles from which to land, mixes up his rhythm, feints regularly and moves between the body and head, depending on his opponent's defensive responses. Volume is a strong suit, and Holloway routinely throws 20 or 25 strikes per minute without ever coming close to tiring himself out.
If Holloway has a weakness, it's defense in the pocket. As he has grown more comfortable with his excellent counters, Holloway finds himself in distance to be hit more often, and his defense at that range is basic. That's a minor concern, though, in the context of one of the best striking arsenals in the division.
The rest of Holloway's game is designed to allow him to strike at range for as much time as possible. He's difficult to hold in the clinch and uses his height to generate tremendous leverage in close, which allows him to land sharp knees. He has great instincts for throwing on the breaks as well.
Holloway's takedown defense is bulletproof. His technique is the best in the division outside of Aldo, and his height and command of distance make it difficult to get a clean shot at his hips in the first place. His strong front headlock and counter-wrestling make it more dangerous to shoot on him, as he's liable to turn a bad shot into a guillotine choke or a sweep to top position.
Pettis is essentially the same fighter he was during his run to the UFC title: a remarkably quick, athletic and dangerous striker with a venomous submission game on the ground. His weaknesses, however, remain as obvious as his strengths.
When given space to operate, Pettis is lethal. He operates in both stances, though lately he seems to prefer southpaw, and flicks the occasional jab or punching combination as he circles through the cage. He's a solid counterpuncher and showcases excellent hand speed and timing, though he doesn't pack big power.
The meat of his game lies in his tremendous arsenal of kicks, which are some of the fastest, most devastating in the sport. A single body or head kick can finish the fight, and he excels at disguising the location and arc. Flashy jumping and spinning kicks add another dimension to Pettis' game, especially when he uses them judiciously.
The problem is how rarely Pettis gets to utilize this devastating striking game. During his recent run, and even in his last several victories, he's spent long periods getting shoved against the fence, eating shots and defending nonstop takedown attempts.
While he could stand to become a better defensive wrestler and clinch fighter, those are symptoms of the real problem: Pettis' inability to keep his back off the fence. He doesn't have the precise footwork necessary to shut down his opponent's pressure. Alvarez and Dos Anjos simply walked him down, held him in place and let the rest of the fight take care of itself.
Another issue is Pettis' lack of offensive output. He's better about this than he used to be, but he still doesn't throw enough volume to capitalize when he does have the space he needs. Barboza outworked him with combinations and scoring strikes.
Pettis doesn't have the tools to impose the kind of fight he prefers: a slow-paced, long-distance striking match that plays to his quickness and kicking game; instead, he relies on his opponent to consent to that kind of bout, and if he doesn't, Pettis is vulnerable.
Grappling is a strong secondary skill set for Pettis. He's active and dangerous from his guard and is devastating with passes and strikes when he gets on top. Scrambles are his specialty, and he excels at getting to the back and working from the front headlock. He rarely shoots for takedowns, though, and is reactive.
Prediction
This is Holloway's fight to lose. He has the pressure footwork to take away the space Pettis needs to operate and work at a much faster pace, which means he should be able to drown Pettis in volume. Pettis might be the superior pure grappler, though that isn't a given, and far better wrestlers than the former lightweight champion have tried and failed to get Holloway to the mat.
Striking with Pettis for five rounds carries serious risks, though. Holloway is tough, but Pettis is still quick and powerful enough to finish him with a single shot at any time. Despite his injury history outside the cage, inside it Pettis is exceptionally durable, which means he should be able to weather the volume and hang around into the late rounds.
All of this is a recipe for a fantastic bout. Holloway will force Pettis to fight faster than he prefers, which should lead to fireworks, and Pettis' incredible killer instinct and finishing ability should keep Holloway on his toes. Holloway will survive the scary moments to take a close but clear decision.
