UFC 200 - Predictions / Betting Info

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Daniel Cormier (17-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’11” Age: 37 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 72.5″
•Last Fight: SD win / Alexander Gustafsson (10-3-15)
•Camp: American Kickboxing Academy (San Jose, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ UFC Light-heavyweight Champion
+ Strikeforce HW Grand Prix Winner
+ 2x US Olympian(Wrestling Captain)
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ 8 KO victories
+ 7 first round finishes
+ 3 Submission wins
+ KO Power
+ Pressure fighting approach
^ Forces high work rate
+ Dangerous overhands & uppercuts
+ Deceptive distance closer
^ Slips & rips his way inside
+ Strong clinch game
^ Effective dirty boxer
+ Diverse takedown game
^ Favors high-crotch single
+ Transitions intelligently on top
+/-Pace bares watching



Jon Jones (22-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’4″ Age: 28 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 84.5″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Ovince ST Preux (4-23-16)
•Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ UFC Interim LHW Champion
+ *Former UFC LHW Champion
+ JUCO National Wrestling Champ
+ Multiple Wrestling Accolades
+ 9 KO victories
+ 7 first round finishes
+ 6 Submission wins
+ Athletic & Agile
+ Creative & dynamic striker
^ Preternatural instincts & improv
+ Effectively dictates range
^ Teep kicks, oblique kicks, & hand posts
+ Deceptively effective inside clinch
^ Superb hand fighting/grip disruption
+ Multiple takedown tools
+ Devastating ground striker
+ Always looks to secure rounds
^ Consistently comes on late
+/-Will fight to opponents strength



Summary:

Headlining the legendary UFC 200 card is a grudge match between champions, as now-interim champ, Jon Jones attempts to take back his title against the defending champ Daniel Cormier. Due to Jon’s shortcomings outside of the cage, he was forced to surrender his title and sit on the sidelines as the division moved on. After two hard fought victories over Anthony Johnson and Alexander Gustafsson, Daniel Cormier became the man to take Jones’ spot at the top. Lacking no motivation of his own, Cormier will look to pay Jones back for the previous defeat and disrespect dealt.

Going back to their first fight in 2015, I feel that history has been re-written as our hunger for hyperbole often leads us to swim in the stream of common-narrative. Although the defeat DC suffered to Jones was crushing, it was also much closer than people seem to remember. Similar to our criticisms of MMA Judging, the most recent events and the manner in which they happen often resonate with us the most. That is why someone like Jones can almost inherently make you write-off his opposition, whether you are judging him as a fighter or the one judging his fights. Despite my official pick aligning with the projected favorite, I will attempt to explain why I feel this fight is closer than you might think.

In their first affair, you could have made legitimate arguments for Cormier in the opening two rounds. Although only outscoring Jones officially in one of those rounds(round 2), DC was able to pressure Jones with effect as being the one advancing. Cormier started to take it Jones early in the third, as he looked to be running away with the round until Jones accidentally poked DC in the eye. Despite Jon’s history and rather blatant disregard to the issue, I do not reference that to take anything away from Jones’ performance, as I feel this momentum shift was more than likely inevitable. What I mean by that is that DC began to tire significantly from that point on.

As soon as action resumed from the inadvertent foul, Jones jumped on Cormier and never let up for the rest of the round. From then on, Jon established himself firmly in the fight as he allowed DC to come into the clinch with him, a place where we thought Cormier could have an advantage. However, Jones again stifled the offensive momentum of DC as he put on a hand fighting clinic. Demonstrating the importance of grip fighting, Jones utilized creative forms of wrist control to disrupt DC’s game and open up his own. Using his long frame to multitask inside the clinch, Jones implemented over-hooks(in a similar fashion to the ones that injured Teixeira’s shoulder) as he used his free arm to feed DC’s wrists into the over-hooking hand.

This intricate tie up also allowed Jon the leverage to come over the top with elbows regardless of whether or not he is still holding onto wrists. For those who have not wrestled or grappled in some form, wrist control is the unsung gatekeeper of advancing position, as a solid hand-fighter can befuddle even the best of grapplers. For example, even you are in a disadvantageous position(e.g. on bottom), isolating or controlling a single wrist properly can immediately kill up to 90% of choke and pass completions. It is a hard thing to grasp a non-grappler, but establishing a position can be especially difficult when someone is compromising your grips. We saw not only Cormier struggle here but also Teixeira, as Jones was able to operate like a technically equipped octopus inside the clinch, simultaneously denying them space while taking them into deeper waters.

If Cormier does not have a new approach toward Jon’s clinch warfare, we may see him struggle to get his wrestling or dirty boxing game going in this rematch. With most of DC’s favored takedowns taking place inside the clinch, Jones command of this area will be crucial if he means to limit Cormier’s arsenal once again. Should Jones find success in shutting down DC’s wrestling, Cormier may be relegated to fighting within the mid and outside ranges. Although Cormier was overmatched on the outside(as most are against Jones), he did some things nicely in the mid-range that he may revisit. A deceptively good kicker, DC was able to land effectively to Jones legs and body. Going to the legs, in particular, may serve Cormier well considering the lack of build to Jon’s frame in that area.

I do not mean to judge a book by it’s cover when referring to the skinniness of Jon’s legs, but it is after all the reasoning behind his nickname. Not only that, I believe that the consistent kick-heavy arsenal that Jones relies upon to maintain range comes with a cost. In reviewing footage of Jon’s fight history, I noticed that no matter how hard the battle, Jones would consistently limp as the contest came to a close. I am not sure if this is a part of DC’s team’s approach or awareness, but I do feel that Jon is acutely aware of this. Often switching stances when leg kicked(or when he feels like disrupting your game), Jones will almost bait you to come forward and throw as he uses brutal oblique kicks(that often buckles the knee) to dissuade you from approaching in said space.

Cormier’s best shot in this fight ultimately lies within the boxing range. Although he struggled to find Jones here the first time, DC showed solid improvements to his punching pursuits in his fight with Gustafsson. Whether Alexander is committed to countering or evading, the Swede can be difficult to deal with in exchanges. That said, DC was able to continually close-in on Gustafsson despite the disparity in height and reach. Even though Cormier showed signs(and possible trends) to how he is holding up in these wars, it is hard to criticize a fighter for being exhausted after such a grueling battle. However, considering that DC is facing arguably the best round-winner in MMA, Cormier will have little room for error or inconsistency.

Coming on late in rounds with his patent taste for takedowns and flashy techniques, we have even seen an ill-prepared Jones dig deep to fend off defeat. Although I see Cormier’s overhands & uppercuts being his best chance at auditing Jon’s head-movement tendencies, Bones has become increasingly aware inside the pocket as I feel this has been his biggest improvement as of late. If Cormier cannot score the knockout, then he will be forced to compete with Jones for scorecard supremacy, something that remains a daunting task. Unless Jones suffers from a performance related intangible, I have a hard time seeing Jon’s adjustments and creativity not come through. Although my heart will be rooting for Cormier, the official pick here is Jonny Bones.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Jones – Decision
 

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Brock Lesnar (5-3)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’3″ Age: 38 Weight: 264 lbs Reach: 81″
•Last Fight: TKO loss / Alistair Overeem (12-30-11)
•Camp: Team Death Clutch (Canada)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC Heavyweight Champion
+ NCAA Heavyweight Champion(2000)
+ 4x All-American Wrestler
+ 3 KO victories
+ 1 Submission win
+ KO power
+ Freakish athleticism & agility
^ Deceptively fast
+ Explosive power double takedown
^ Changes level well
+ Relentless positional rider
^ Floats, transitions, & strikes
– 1 fight in 6 years
^ Coming off 5 year layoff
? Questionable overall state



Mark Hunt (12-10-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 42 Weight: 262 lbs Reach: 72″
•Last Fight: KO win / Frank Mir (3-19-16)
•Camp: Team Mark Hunt (Australia)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ K-1 Grand Prix Champion
+ Multiple Kickboxing Accolades
+ 30-13 as a Pro Kickboxer
+ 9 KO’s MMA/13 KO’s kickboxing
+ 73% finish rate
+ KO power
+ Deceptive speed & agility
^ Closes distance quickly
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Changes timing/tempo well
+ Deadly uppercuts & hooks
+ Underrated takedown defense
^ Demonstrates fundamental awareness
– Struggles with top pressure
^ Propensity to take damage



Summary:

Serving as a special co-main event for an extra-special card, Brock Lesnar will make his UFC return as he draws the always dangerous Mark Hunt. A fight that took most by surprise, Lesnar has decided to come out of retirement and away from the WWE to give MMA one more shot. With his motives mysterious as per usual, you can count that Brock’s intentions will ultimately depend on the outcome of his date with Mark Hunt. A fan favorite amongst hardcore and casual MMA fans, the Super Samoan will look to spoil Lesnar’s homecoming in style.

The obvious red flag heading into this fight is the overall health & mindset of Lesnar, as he will be competing for the first time in five years. No stranger to the big stage, Brock has not been inactive during his sabbatical from the sport, as he has since resigned and worked with the WWE. Although I self-admittedly stopped watching pro wrestling by the time Brock came into it, I felt that going back and improving my referential knowledge may help shed more insight into his athletic capabilities.

In looking at Lesnar’s most recent performances in the WWE, it was apparent that Brock’s athletic abilities are still intact. Obviously, that has no bearing on the status of his fight sensibilities as fight-related technique study was not my intention here. I wanted to see how well Lesnar was moving at 38-years of age, and from his core rotations to his walking-gate, the former world champion appears to be in full working order. As for the fight game part of the pie, Brock’s mental status and approach will be the key intangible going in.

On point or not, Brock will certainly be outgunned standing on the feet with Hunt. Not just on paper or from a pure striking viewpoint, but in an overall sense considering the quickness, stoutness, and approach employed by Hunt. Favoring a more basic arsenal, Mark’s ability to deceptively change speeds is what sets him apart from the pack. Striking at blatant lackadaisical speeds, Hunt will bait opposition his way by lulling them into a false sense of security. After adjusting and achieving reads, Mark will then explode into fight-ending counter shots. Whether he is rolling with his left hook or slipping into his right uppercut, Hunt works with an impressive economy of trunk movement as his style relies heavily upon it.

Although Lesnar has shown capable of throwing long jabs and crosses with authority, the obvious question here is whether or not he will be able to assist his shot intentions by striking with the Samoan. Carrying and underrated ability to defend takedowns, Mark Hunt’s stout stature and deceptively active agility often limit the entry options for his opponents. With some of Hunt’s biggest grappling improvements being the way in which he uses the fence, the ideal approach is to get Mark Hunt grounded in the open. Displaying an understanding of fundamental wrestling defense, Hunt traditionally defends double-legs well as he wields deceptively quick hips.

However, single-legs have proven effective against the Samoan as these more aptly disrupt the balance of his stout base. Possessing an excellent single-leg, we saw Stipe systematically take down Mark again and again. That said, Stipe is also one of the best heavyweights when it comes to using his strikes to set up takedowns. I do not think Lesnar is anywhere near Miocic in the sense of transitioning, nor does the former NCAA heavyweight champion favor single-legs as we have seldom seen him attempt them. Regardless, Lesnar is an absolute outlier athletically as his level-changing power double often gets things done for him.

I do not doubt that Brock can get Hunt down, as I feel that he may also have a good shot at keeping him there. Say what you will with your opinions of Lesnar, but in such a short time and sample size he displayed some amazing things. Embracing the art of catch wrestling, we saw Brock transition seamlessly from positional rides to strikes. Lesnar even shows technical intricacies, like the Billy Robinson style quarter-nelson variation that he used to pin Frank Mir in their rematch. Although Hunt has the propensity to take damage when he’s on the bottom, he possesses a relentless will to search for under-hooks and stand.

Ultimately, I feel that if Lesnar cannot cement his presence by grounding Hunt in the first couple of minutes, his mentality will be amongst the top things tested as Mark’s momentum will likely grow. Although I feel Lesnar has a much better chin than given credit for, he does show the tendencies of someone who is not comfortable with being hit. More specifically, Brock will often revert to shell defense that traditionally opens him up to uppercuts, as I feel that will be the punch to look for here. Although I am siding with the Samoan, you would have to be insane to dismiss the chances of Brock Lesnar. The former champion has a clear path here, but I feel that Mark Hunt will be the one who walks off on it.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Hunt – Inside the distance
 

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Miesha Tate (18-5)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’6″ Age: 29 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 66.5″
•Last Fight: Submission win / Holly Holm (3-5-16)
•Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas, NV)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: N/A


Supplemental info:
+ UFC Bantamweight Champion
+ Former Strikeforce Bantamweight Champ
+ Multiple Grappling Accolades
+ 3 KO victories
+ 7 Submission wins
+ 4 first round finishes



Amanda Nunes (12-4)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’8″ Age: 28 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 69″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Valentina Shevchenko (3-5-16)
•Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: N/A


Supplemental info:
+ BJJ Black Belt
+ Judo Brown Belt
+ Multiple Grappling Accolades
+ 9 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 9 first round finishes



Summary:

*STATED BIAS*: Due to my affiliation with Xtreme Couture MMA and Miesha Tate, I have opted to not analyze this match due to the interests of efficacy. I apologize for shorting you a breakdown on the main card as I hope you understand my efforts for professionalism here.




Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: *Tate – Inside the distance
 

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Jose Aldo (25-2)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’7″ Age: 29 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 70″
•Last Fight: KO loss / Conor McGregor (12-12-15)
•Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC Featherweight Champion
+ WEC Featherweight Title
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 4x BJJ World Champion
+ 14 KO victories
+ 11 first round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic & Agile
^ Superb reactive instincts
+ Accurate jab & counter cross
+ Devastating leg kicks
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Strong hips & base
^ 91% takedown defense
+/-1 fight in 2 years



Frankie Edgar (20-4-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’6″ Age: 34 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 72″
•Last Fight: KO win / Chad Mendes (12-11-15)
•Camp: Ricardo Almeida BJJ (New Jersey)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC Lightweight Champion
+ 4X Div. 1 Collegiate Wrestler
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 6 KO victories
+ 6 first round finishes
+ Consistent pace & pressure
^ High volume striker
+ Excellent footwork
^ Enters & exits off angles
+ Superb timing & transitions
+ Effective chain wrestler
+ Relentless top pressure
^ Busy ground striker
+/-Hit early/recovers well



Summary:

In the second match on the UFC 200 main card, we are treated to a rematch between two of the greatest fighters to hold UFC titles. With an interim belt on the line, Jose Aldo & Frankie Edgar will look to state their case for featherweight supremacy.

Coming off a crushing 13-second defeat last December to Conor McGregor, the big question for Aldo coming into this matchup is the current state of his fight psyche. With said loss being Jose’s lone performance in the past two years, I am sure Aldo is eager to shake the cobwebs loose and see where he stands. None the less, Aldo is still a world class athlete with little technical flaws as a fighter. Although offensive aggression was the name of the game early on in Aldo’s career, the Brazilian has steadily developed into a pressure fighter who prefers to counter.

Commanding the cage with a disciplined approach of technical footwork, Aldo will march forward pressuring his opponents into exchanges. Consistently keeping his feet beneath him, Jose is seldom out of position as this allows him to counter with conviction. Displaying a solid sense of head movement, Aldo often slips and returns authoritatively with right hands or leg kicks. When pressing forward, Aldo still shows his classic Dutchie combination as he throws a left hook to the liver that feeds into a right leg kick. That said, I suspect Aldo will once again keep conservative in his approach, especially considering his matchup ahead.

Next to Dominick Cruz, Frankie Edgar is likely the name that pops into your head when someone refers to footwork based fighters. Consistently circling and forcing his opposition to follow, Edgar will work his way in behind punches once finding an angle of approach to his liking. Exiting exchanges at angles that are different in which he came, Edgar has proven increasingly difficult to hit. Subsequently, the more effort Edgar’s opposition exerts in trying to counter, the more available they make themselves to be taken down. Owning one of the best transition games in the business, Edgar seamlessly mixes in takedowns with his approach. Implementing these weapons of constant volume, variety, and angles, Frankie often breaks his opposition down the longer the fight goes.

On paper, one would think this approach would trouble Aldo, who traditionally measures his rounds to combat fatigue. However, Jose was able to take a close decision in their first meeting by using fundamentals to edge out the early rounds. Although Aldo’s accurate jab stifled Edgar’s attacks early, it was the footwork of the Brazilian that gave him the edge in exchanges. Even though Aldo’s athleticism seemingly allows him to react and reset with ease, he does a good job at pivoting off of his rear foot. With most pivots occurring off of the front foot(whether inadvertent or intended), pivoting off of the back foot is an often overlooked aspect of footwork. If you go back and watch these two fighters first meeting, you will see that Aldo consistently uses a rear-foot pivot to adjust his stance.

The rear-foot pivot allowed Aldo to face Edgar in exchanges without compromising his position, which in turn allowed him to counter with effect and edge out the early rounds. Even though Edgar was able to find more success with this transition game as the fight wore on, it ultimately was not enough as he lost a close decision. With this contest being just an adjustment or two away from a different outcome, predicting the winner in a rematch of two of the most consistent fighters is a daunting task. That said, I feel there have been slight trends with both fighters that lead in different directions.

Despite being the older fighter who has experienced wars a division north, Frankie Edgar has seemingly sharpened in skill as he has yet to lose his step at 34-years of age. Still yet to see his thirties, I am not certain I can say the same thing for Jose Aldo. As great as Aldo became in all areas, we have seldom seen him venture outside of his comfort zone since winning the title. Fatigue criticisms aside, the stereotype of Aldo riding out early momentum to the scorecards is confirmed when listening to his corner. In doing so, you will consistently hear the Brazilian’s coaches stress their concerns about Aldo’s output (advising to avoid takedowns and save his strength).

When facing wrestlers like Mendes or Lamas, Aldo’s coach(Andre Pederneiras) will smartly advise him to save his kicks for the end of rounds as well. Not only does this fall into line with the method of conserving energy while solidifying rounds, but it also limits the availability to have Aldo’s kicks countered. I expect this same strategy will be employed against Edgar, considering how good Frankie is at catching his opponent’s kicks and taking them down. Although Aldo’s ability to solidify rounds will undoubtedly be a factor in this fight, you have to imagine that Mark Henry & company have studied all of this and adjusted accordingly.

Whether or not Frankie can make those proper adjustments to secure this fight remains to be seen, but there will be trends aside from fatigue that could play into Edgar’s hands. An athletic specimen, Aldo has relied upon his movement & agility to avoid shots throughout his career. The problem with your game being heavily reliant on speed is that that’s often the first thing to go. Now I am not saying that this is apparent with Aldo as he has only fought once in the past two years, but he has been more prone to damage in his last few outings. Especially in his second fight with Mendes, where we saw how hittable Jose could become when not allowed to fight as his preferred pace.

More specifically, Mendes was able to land left hooks on Aldo multiple times in their rematch. In looking deeper, I found that this was no coincidence for Jose Aldo. Concerned with the right hand, Jose will diligently shell with his left hand to protect himself from that strike. However, Aldo will often retract his right-hand low off of strikes, or even preemptively parry defensively. In turn, this tendency has made left hooks the shot that is most commonly landed on Aldo(as seen in his last fight). Considering that Edgar has an excellent left hook(also seen in his last fight), I suspect that will be the punch to look for in this contest.

From the on paper trends to the off paper intangibles, I recommend caution in the playing this one heavily. Ultimately, I project another closely fought affair that will likely see the scorecards, especially when you consider how some fighters approach important matches. Whether it’s long and competitive or short and decisive, I believe that the trends for this rematch lean toward New Jersey coming away with the victory.




Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Edgar – Decision
 

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Cain Velasquez (13-2)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’1″ Age: 33 Weight: 241 lbs Reach: 77″
•Last Fight: Sub loss / Fabricio Werdum (6-13-15)
•Camp: American Kickboxing Academy (San Jose, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC Heavyweight Champion
+ Div.1 All-American Wrestler
+ 11 KO victories
+ 8 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ High-volume striker
^ Relentless pace & pressure
+ Excellent head positioning
^ Striking , grappling, & in transit
+ Diverse takedown game
^ Level-changing & chains
+ Efficient transitional grappler
^ Floats, Rides, & strikes seamlessly
+/-1 fight in 3 years



Travis Browne (18-3-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’7″ Age: 33 Weight: 236 lbs Reach: 79″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Matt Mitrione (1-17-16)
•Camp: Glendale Fight Club (California)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Purple Belt BJJ
+ 14 KO victories
+ 13 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Improved boxing
^ Actively measuring with jab
+ Deadly elbows in close
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ 83% takedown defense
+ Strong from top position
^ Solid mount & ground strikes
– Head slightly upright
^ Especially upon retreat



Summary:

Kicking off UFC 200‘s legendary main card is a pair of heavyweight headliners as the former champion Cain Velasquez faces off against the always dangerous Travis Browne. Widely considered the greatest modern day heavyweight, Cain Velasquez has struggled to stay healthy with only one fight in the last three years. Coming off a tough loss to Fabricio Werdum in Mexico City last summer, Cain will attempt to get back on the title path with a win here. Standing in his way is a hungry Hawaiian, as Travis Browne looks to build momentum off of his last victory earlier this year.

Browne initially burst onto the scene with sporadic movements and explosive abilities but has refined his striking since moving shop to the Glendale Fight Club. Employing an improved standing guard and strike fundamentals, the Hawaiian will now plot in a wider stance as he works behind a measuring jab. Although his kicks & knees still command respect, I doubt he will rely on them heavily in this matchup considering the wrestling threat. That in mind, Travis throws an accurate uppercut that I feel will serve him well in this fight. As we saw in his fight with Brendan Schaub, Browne was able to catch Brendan level-changing on his way in which eventually earned him a dominant finish. Although Cain can be difficult to catch on the way in, it has shown to be more than possible given his consistent forward pressure.

However, the reason why Cain is so difficult to catch is due to his head movement, as I feel head positioning will be a key factor in this fight. Moving his head from left-to-right, Velasquez utilizes an efficient economy of movement to throw his strikes. Continually slipping off the centerline, Cain will come right back on balance with variating levels of punches & kicks depending on the side. Despite Browne’s newly adopted boxing stance being ripe for leg kicks, I feel Velasquez’s overhand right will congeal the best with this fight’s agenda. Even though Travis has improved his hand positioning & defense, he still naturally keeps his head slightly high in transit or on the retreat. Slipping off said centerline, Cain can unload solid right hands that also lead him into his clinch entries.

Not only do I feel that Velasquez’s head positioning will give him the edge standing, but also within the clinch, as I suspect key parts of this fight to take place here. It’s not just Cain’s fundamental head position, but the fact that he is so versatile in his styles of fighting, and the way in which he transitions through these skillsets. Whether he is keeping his head driven under his opponent’s chin with a strong under-hook(Randy Couture style) or operating out of a traditional Thai clinch, Cain can do it all. Although Travis has discouraged shots with his patent elbows(as seen against Gonzaga & Barnett), I do not think those angles will be available to him with the way Cain conducts his head.

Similar to his stablemates Daniel Cormier & Khabib Nurmagomedov, Cain also chains his takedown attempts against the cage with impeccable technique. Even though I feel a head on the outside single will be Cain’s go-to takedown given Browne’s stance/frame, I doubt you will find Velasquez with his head hanging out for prolonged periods as Browne’s previous victims have. Again, Cain maintains an excellent head positioning as he keeps his head high and tight to his opponent’s body(making offensive striking leverage difficult). Considering Cain’s operating options from the clinch, it is hard not to side with him in dictating the fight should it get there.

Working with Ricky Lundell & Neil Melanson for the past few years, we have seen hints of Browne’s underrated ground game. From his rock solid mount to his improvements on his overall balance & base, I do not feel we have even come close to seeing the full extent of Browne’s capabilities. That said, he has a tall order in front of him considering the stylistic nightmare of Cain’s wrestling acumen. Unless the Hawaiian can catch Cain coming in, it is hard to see where he wins this fight. Even when missing or eating the occasional counter shot, Cain has shown that he will consistently come forward as long as he’s conscious. Although Velasquez’s health will undoubtedly be the key intangible in this fight, I do not suspect his last performance is a fair representation of his current state. Ultimately, I see the former champion returning with the intent of making a statement.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Velasquez – Inside the distance
 

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Mixed Martial Analyst




Preliminary Card Predictions:

•Zingano def. Pena
•Gastelum def. Hendricks
•Dillashaw def. Assuncao
•Northcutt def. Marin
•Lauzon def. Sanchez
•Mousasi def. Santos
•Miller def. Gomi



Recommended Plays:

Draft Kings recommended rosters:


Team #1: $50,000.00

-Cain Velasquez ($11,200.00)
-Miesha Tate ($10,700.00)
-Mark Hunt ($10,400.00)
-Kelvin Gastelum ($9,300.00)
-Thiago Santos ($8,400.00)

Team Summary:

My first recommended roster features a finish-heavy fighter stable as I stuck with main card favorites for reasons listed above. As far as my low tier picks go, this lineup contains Kelvin Gastelum and Thiago Santos. Although my official pick is Mousasi, Santos serves as a legitimate threat with hail marry intangibles that could score big. In comparison to skill-sets and matchups possessed by the other low-tier fighter options, I feel Thiago Santos presents more promise as a point scoring pick. As far Gastelum goes, you will see him make multiple appearances in my recommendations. Although I’m a big fan of Johny Hendricks, his recent career trend of performances, progressions, and camp changes have been troubling to say the least. On the other side, you have Kelvin Gastelum, whom I believe is on the up-trend. With his losses being close and his shortcomings due to a lack of prep, I feel Kelvin is now in the best case scenario. Working with a coach who is renown for turning southpaw grapplers into feared strikers(Dos Anjos & Dariush), I expect Gastelum’s game to grow under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA. Kelvin makes a solid choice for your lower-to-mid tier picks.



Team #2: $49,900.00

-Cain Velasquez ($11,200.00)
-Jon Jones ($10,900.00)
-Jose Aldo ($9,500.00)
-Kelvin Gastelum ($9,300.00)
-Brock Lesnar ($9,000.00)


Team Summary:

For my second recommended roster I again went with heavy hitters. Serving as my high-tier picks is Cain Velasquez and Jon Jones for reasons listed in the breakdown above. I also went with Jose Aldo here despite him not being my official pick. Although I am siding with Edgar to win, I have no disillusions that this is a close match with high-scoring opportunities on both sides. For my low-tier picks, I once again went with Kelvin Gastelum as well as Brock Lesnar. Although I favor Hunt to come out on top, this is obviously a high-intangible heavyweight fight that could go either way in explosive fashion. For nine-thousand flat, Brock Lesnar makes for a solid low-tier pick to fit into your lineup.



Team #3: $49,300.00

-Cain Velasquez ($11,200.00)
-Mark Hunt ($10,400.00)
-Frankie Edgar ($9,900.00)
-Kelvin Gastelum ($9,300.00)
-Daniel Cormier ($8,500.00)


Team Summary:

For my third and final recommendation, I elected to go with two heavyweights and a five-round fighter who are all slightly favored to win. Although Frankie does not have the same finishing rate as the heavyweight fighters do, he consistently scores points as he is hard to put away. Aside from once again going with Gastelum as my low-tier pick, I also went with Daniel Cormier. Despite officially picking Jones, I state in the breakdown above that I feel this match is closer than people think. Not only that, but the durable & competitive DC will also have five rounds to rack you points, even if it is in a losing effort. For that reason, Cormier could serve as an appropriate darkhorse pick for the low-tier section of your lineup.




Props worth looking at (5dimes):

-Jon Jones by Decision: +145 (1 Unit)
-Frankie Edgar by Decision: +245 (.05 Unit)
-Kelvin Gastelum by TKO/KO: +725 (.25 Unit)


Playable favorites for your parlays:

-Cain Velasquez
-Jon Jones
-Jim Miller


Fights to avoid:

-Cat Zingano vs Juliana Pena
-TJ Dillashaw vs Raphael Assuncao
-Diego Sanchez vs Joe Lauzon
 

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Toe-to-Toe: UFC 200 Preview and Predictions
from Combat Press



Combat Press writers Vince Carey and Kyle Symes preview the event in this edition of Toe-to-Toe.



Jon Jones is back, probably to the great dismay of Daniel Cormier. Cormier finally claimed UFC gold while Jones was away, but can he hold on to the crown with “Bones” back in the Octagon?

Carey: I don’t know that I’d say that Jones coming back is to the “dismay” of Cormier. In fact, I think it’s probably quite the opposite. Are we forgetting Cormier calling out Jones to “get his shit together” as soon as he won the belt that “Bones” vacated? Cormier doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who would try to duck an opponent, especially when the guy in question is the one that handed him the only loss of his career thus far. As much as this fight is about the redemption of Jones’ career, a Cormier win would finally erase all of the doubters that have called him a paper champion. That’s about as good as things could get for “DC.”

Of course, while I have no doubts about Cormier wanting to fight Jones, I’m a little more than skeptical about his ability to get the job done when it comes time to beat the former champion. If the same Jones that put on a five-round clinic against Cormier the last time they went toe-to-toe shows up, it’s hard to envision the fight going any differently for Cormier. Jones controlled their first bout from the onset in the same way he’s controlled basically every single fight he’s been in while competing inside the Octagon. If the elbow-slinging, teep-kicking version of Jones ends up in the cage, then it’s more than likely going to end the same way — with the UFC light heavyweight title wrapped around Jones’ waist.

That being said, when Jones came back this past April and went five rounds against Ovince Saint Preux, he didn’t quite look like the champion that had been dominating the 205-pound division since the moment he stepped foot in it. Most people attributed his lackluster performance to ring rust after spending well over a year outside of the cage prior to the fight, but it’s hard to ignore that “Bones” went through a good handful of seriously life-altering events during his time off.

I’m not saying we’re never going to see the old Jon Jones again, but I’m not sure he’s going to be able to walk into the cage in just his second fight back and return to form. Jones will win a decision, but I’m not convinced he’s going to be at his best. And if he’s not at his best, it won’t be as easy as the last time.


Symes: Although Cormier received a lot of “ducking” comments following his knee injury, he strikes me as the type of person who wants nothing more than to compete against the best. If there’s any dismay on the part of Cormier, it’s probably due to the fact that he gets the daunting task of defeating the consensus top pound-for-pound fighter.

I, too, am not entirely sold on Cormier’s chances. He attempted to break Jones in their first meeting, setting an incredible pace through the first half of the fight. However, Jones never wilted, never wavered and, most important of all, never stopped firing back. Cormier might be able to employ a smarter strategy of how he negates Jones’ reach with better entry angles, but Jones has proven to be the better fighter in every area of MMA. For as good as Jones is at keeping the fight at distance, he’s probably even better at clinch fighting. His fights against Glover Teixeira and Cormier are two of the greatest examples of how to be an effective clinch fighter.

So, for Jones, it’s more of the same in the rematch. It’s likely that he’ll add some new wrinkles, but for the most part we’ll see a similar game plan employed by the interim champion. He’ll look to keep Cormier at bay with his lanky legs and seek to tie up Cormier’s arms once the two come close. We saw in their first encounter that Jones liked to hold onto Cormier’s wrist while working knees and elbows inside. The only thing that might change is that perhaps Jones will look for a finish rather than taking a decision. He seems very determined to build his legacy and create special moments in his career. What better way to add to that legacy than to not only defeat his biggest rival, but to take that rival out in dramatic fashion?

There are two avenues to victory for Cormier. The first is his wrestling. In their first meeting, Jones did an excellent job of negating Cormier’s Olympic-level wrestling skills. Even when Cormier was able to get Jones off his feet, he wasn’t able to do very much. If Cormier can get Jones to the ground, then he won’t have to contend with Jones’ insane reach and deadly striking arsenal. The other way “DC” can pull this out is if he manages to clip Jones early in the fight. We’ve seen Jones start off slow as he looks to analyze his opponent like a supercomputer. “DC” could take advantage of the slow start and catch Jones while he’s off guard or circling away from Cormier’s forward pressure.



Brock Lesnar’s return is upon us. He’ll face Mark Hunt in the co-headliner. Two questions: 1) Does Lesnar’s return spell record-breaking numbers for this pay-per-view, or was that a guarantee even without his presence on the card?; and 2) Is Lesnar doomed to be Hunt’s latest walk-off knockout victim?

Symes: UFC 200 would’ve done great numbers, but I’m not sure it would’ve broken the UFC 100 record mark without a superstar on the card. Jones and DC II is a huge fight, but neither man has the kind of drawing power that Conor McGregor, Brock Lesnar or Ronda Rousey have. Without any of these big three on the card, UFC 200 would’ve done great, but to say it would’ve beaten UFC 100’s buyrate was out of the question. After all, there had been legitimate discussion — this was before Lesnar’s addition to the lineup — that McGregor’s comeback fight against Nate Diaz would out-sell UFC 200 just by itself.

This fight is your classic grappler-vs.-striker match-up. It really comes down to whether or not Lesnar can get Hunt to the floor. I think we can all agree that Lesnar doesn’t stand much of a chance on the feet, and the same can be said of Hunt’s chances should Lesnar get on top of him.

On the feet, the fight is Hunt’s to lose. He’s proven to be one of the most durable fighters in MMA history and has made a career of walk-off knockouts. Lesnar’s durability is often overlooked because so many people want to say he can’t take a punch. Lesnar has proven he can take a punch, it’s just that he’d rather avoid it at all costs. And who could blame him? No sane person wants a 240- to 280-pound man punching them in the head, let alone one with the knockout power of Hunt.

Hunt’s takedown defense is serviceable, but perhaps his best defense in this fight is his lack of height. Lesnar’s trademark blast double leg is his go-to takedown and he’s going to have to get very low to land it on the “Super Samoan.” Hunt also has some damn good uppercuts that, even if they don’t knock Lesnar senseless on a takedown attempt, allow him to easily get an underhook.

The fight has the makings to be a disaster for whichever fighter loses. It’s safe to assume either Lesnar is getting KTFO or he’s going to maul Hunt on the ground. Lesnar will have some early success when he’s fresh, which is going to lead to a world of problems for Hunt on the ground. Hunt will survive the initial onslaught. However, having a guy with the top game of Lesnar on him will be no walk in the park.


Carey: It’s almost a little depressing that this card needed to bring in someone who’s basically an outsider in order to try to top UFC 100. This is, after all, one of the best UFC cards of all time on paper, if not the very best. However, my colleague is absolutely right. This card wasn’t going to break any records without one of the UFC’s big-three draws. It would have been nice for the UFC to be able to smash UFC 100 by using strictly homemade stars, especially after Lesnar was the major selling point for that previous event as well, but once McGregor refused to play ball and was taken off the card, it became pretty apparent that this just wasn’t an option.

I’m not going to sit here and act like I’m upset that Lesnar is stepping back into the Octagon, though. As a lifelong pro-wrestling fan, I still have a bit of the 12-year-old kid in me that watched Lesnar destroy people in the ring. I get goosebumps when I see the “Beast Incarnate” start to make that walk. The fact that he’s fighting someone as likable and as dangerous as Hunt makes this even more fun. This is indeed a straight up striker-vs.-grappler showdown, and with as much as MMA has evolved over the last decade or so, it may end up being one of the last big fights of that nature that we end up getting the pleasure of watching.

When it comes down to the actual fight, the first thing I want to do is thank my colleague for pointing out that Lesnar can in fact take a punch. No, he doesn’t like to get hit, but that shouldn’t be a surprising characteristic for a lifelong wrestler who had practically no striking training when he first entered the Octagon. But to say the man can’t take a punch is ridiculous, especially if you look back and remember that Shane Carwin basically threw cinder blocks at Lesnar’s head for damn near five minutes when they fought and Lesnar somehow survived and went on to win the fight in the second. Up to that point, no one had even survived a round in the cage with Carwin, let alone a round where they were eating the punches of the 265-pound monster. You can say what you want about Lesnar’s striking skills, but you can’t deny that he’s a tough dude and can take more punishment than he usually gets credit for.

When it comes down to actually picking a winner in this one, I’ve gone back and forth a hundred times and still don’t feel confident either way. Hunt has knockout power that even other heavyweights can only dream of, and when you see him do crazy things like hit the granite-chinned Roy Nelson and walk away before “Big Country” even hits the mat, it shows you that “The Super Samoan” is, in his own way, just as scary as Lesnar. However, staying off of your back is incredibly difficult with a behemoth like Lesnar shooting at your legs. Getting back up is even more frustrating. This one feels like a coin flip, and I honestly don’t have clue what’s going to happen.



Cat Zingano is coming back after a long layoff and has seemingly been forgotten in the women’s 135-pound title picture. Johny Hendricks is out to rebound from an awful performance against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Which fighter has the most to lose?

Carey: Man, this is a really tough question. On one hand, with Miesha Tate, Holly Holm, Ronda Rousey and Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino all dominating the headlines in the women’s 135-pound division, this almost feels like as much of a must-win scenario as any fight Zingano has had in her career. On the other hand, Hendricks has had an awful 12 months. First, there was the weight-cutting issue that forced him off of the UFC 192 card and then there was his lopsided loss to Thompson. Another setback might push Hendricks into Anthony Pettis territory and force him to revamp his entire career.

If I have to choose one, though, I’m going to go with Hendricks for the sole reason that the top of the welterweight division is so crowded at the moment that another loss might push him out of the title scene for a very long time. Robbie Lawler has been an amazing champion and his two fights with Hendricks were extremely close affairs, but it’s going to take more than just this win for fans to even consider throwing “Bigg Rigg” into the title picture again. Tyron Woodley is next in line, the aforementioned Thompson is waiting in the wings and there’s a crucial match-up between Carlos Condit and Demian Maia coming up in a few months that will put the winner at the front of the line as well.

A second straight loss for Hendricks is likely going to cause him to tumble down the welterweight ladder to the point where his spot in the top 10 may even be in jeopardy. This is a huge fight for Hendricks if he wants to get back on track and make another push for gold. While Zingano also has a pretty solid group of women in front of her in the rankings, she’d be able to rebound from a loss and end up back in the mix much easier than Hendricks would. There’s just less of a logjam at the top of the women’s bantamweight division. While a loss would hurt “Alpha” Cat, it wouldn’t completely cripple her title aspirations in the same way as a loss would hurt the former welterweight champ.


Symes: I’m inclined to agree. That’s a pretty good argument for why Hendricks has more to lose, but I’ll bring up an additional reason: fan support. Zingano has plenty to go around, whereas Hendricks has mostly squandered any support he’s built up throughout the years.

The former welterweight champion’s weight issues, combined with some lackluster performances, have left a sour taste in the mouth for many fans. And although the reasoning behind why he lost to Lawler at UFC 181 was likely valid, it came off as complaining and excuse-making to a lot of people. Woodley really put Hendricks on blast for being a complainer prior to their planned UFC 192 encounter and it seemed to gain traction among the MMA community.

Zingano could go out and get knocked out in under a minute and still have the fan support to push her back into a high-profile bout. The women’s 135-pound division is getting crowded at the top and Zingano certainly needs a good showing at UFC 200, but she can at least fall back on the fans to support her. Hendricks, meanwhile, has very little room for error. As much as fighters would like to think they control their own destiny, it’s often times the voice of the masses that makes the final decision.



José Aldo and Frankie Edgar last fought at UFC 156 over three years ago. Aldo won a decision that was actually much closer than the scorecards suggested. Does the former featherweight champion make it two for two against “The Answer,” or can Edgar become just the third man in UFC history to win titles in two different weight classes? And does any of it even matter since Conor McGregor is holding the division hostage anyway?

Symes: Given what we’ve seen from McGregor, I think we can close the door on him moving back down to featherweight. There’s simply nothing more he can do in that division. He took out one of the best pound-for-pound fighters of all time in just 13 seconds. How do you top that? Factor in the weight cut, and I just don’t see “The Notorious One” giving up the kind of money bouts that he has waiting for him at other weights. This means that despite the UFC’s “interim title” tagline, this fight should be for the real featherweight strap.

Aldo has said we’ll be seeing the WEC version of the Brazilian, but I’m not buying it. I don’t believe Aldo is going to come out in aggressive fashion and throw double flying knees after getting starched in 13 seconds. Aldo is one of the best technical fighters around. Despite the dent in reputation the McGregor fight might’ve caused, he remains one of the best fighters in the history of the sport.

Standing opposite Aldo will be Edgar, but not the same Edgar that Aldo fought at UFC 156. Since the loss to Aldo, Edgar has rattled off five victories, two of which earned him “Performance of the Night” honors. As good as Edgar looked during his run at 155 pounds, he’s arguably looked even more dominant at featherweight. His recent knockout of Chad Mendes and submission of a game Cub Swanson are particularly telling of Edgar’s progress in not only winning scorecards, but in finishing his opponents.

This fight comes down to two things: Edgar’s movement and Aldo’s leg kicks. Edgar is going to dart in and out, looking to land combinations while avoiding prolonged striking exchanges with the former featherweight champ. To stop this, Aldo is going to have to utilize his vaunted kicking game. By using the sweeping leg and body kicks, Aldo can corral Edgar to stand in front of him, where Aldo has the best chance of landing strikes.

Their first fight was very close on the scorecards. Since that fight, we’ve seen Edgar become better and better, while Aldo has remained around the same level of fighter (which is still 10 levels above most fighters). If Aldo is truly reenergized following the loss to McGregor, then we could be in for a special performance from the Brazilian. However, I think Edgar will be too much for him to handle.


Carey: As much as I agree with my colleague’s assessment that “Notorious” has done everything he can at featherweight and should keep taking the big-money fights he’s found for himself north of 145 pounds, I feel like this would already be a fight for the actual featherweight crown if McGregor wasn’t planning on making the trip back down to defend his title. The Irishman just doesn’t feel like the type of competitor that’s going to just give away his belt for free, and something in my gut tells me the UFC likely tried to convince him to do just that before the organization officially made this an interim title bout. I may be wrong — maybe McGregor’s just trying to get a win at a higher weight class before vacating his title — but I think the winner of this will end up fighting McGregor by the end of the year.

Who ends up opposite McGregor in a fight for the undisputed title is a tough thing to predict, but I, too, am leaning toward Edgar being that man. The loss he suffered against Aldo was during the worst stretch of his career, which admittedly isn’t saying much. Edgar was coming off of back-to-back extremely close decision losses to Benson Henderson, and outside of a TKO victory to retain his lightweight title over Gray Maynard prior to those fights, he had been fighting and winning on points in close bouts for the last few years. Dropping three straight close decisions seemed to change that mindset, and since then Edgar’s been more aggressive and shown a hell of a killer instinct to make him one of the more terrifying fighters in the division.

I’m not necessarily saying “The Answer” is going to go out and finish one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, but that newfound aggressiveness is going to help him earn a huge victory. Edgar’s main problem in the first bout against Aldo was that, while he worked a solid game plan and wore Aldo down early in order to win the last few rounds, he didn’t do enough in the opening stanzas other than kill Aldo’s cardio. This lack of early offense on Edgar’s part allowed the Brazilian to skate to a decision after winning the first three rounds. While it’s definitely dangerous to go right after a fresh Aldo, no one can take a shot quite like Edgar and his footwork is some of the best in the business. I’m pretty confident he can survive an early onslaught and do some damage of his own.

If the WEC Aldo does show up, then Edgar might be in for a long night. However, it’s been years since we’ve seen Aldo look his absolute best. Meanwhile, Edgar seems to get better every time out. I’m taking “The Answer” for the win.



Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Carey: I don’t know if I can really call any fight a sleeper bout on this card. The lineup is so stacked from top to bottom that I feel like I’m overlooking all of it and none of it at the same time. If I had to choose one fight on this card that’s been forgotten pretty much since the moment it was announced and really shouldn’t have been, then it’s the bantamweight scrap between former champ T.J. Dillashaw and Raphael Assunção.

We haven’t seen Dillashaw since he lost his belt to Dominick Cruz in January. In his first fight back, he gets a chance at redemption against the last man to beat him before he won the title. Meanwhile, Assunção is on a seven-fight winning streak with victories over top-five bantamweight Bryan Caraway and the aforementioned Dillashaw. This is a bout with major title implications. The first fight between the two came down to an extremely close split decision, and there’s a good chance it will come down to a solid back-and-forth contest again.


Symes: That’s a great option. Assunção gave Dillashaw everything he could handle in their first meeting and edged him via split decision.

I’ll echo the sentiment that it’s tough to call any fight on this card a sleeper, given the importance and name value each fight holds. I’ll stick to the prelims for my sleeper pick.

The fight between Diego Sanchez and Joe Lauzon has “Fight of the Night” written all over it. The fight isn’t getting much attention because of how low both men sit in the rankings and the fact that it’s airing on UFC Fight Pass. However, the promise of pure violence is too intriguing.



Pair this card with…

Symes: An energy drink. With three title fights on the card, there’s the possibility that this card could go well beyond the scheduled end time. I’ll point back to the Strikeforce: Nashville event on CBS, which featured three title bouts. It sounded like a good idea in theory, showcasing the best of the organization, but the event seemed to drag along. It’s pretty telling that the post-fight scuffle between the Diaz brothers and Jason “Mayhem” Miller took all of the headlines. All three title fights at UFC 200 could conceivably go the distance. Given the amount of fanfare and fluff the UFC is going to put in for this mega-event, fight fans are in for a long evening in front of the TV.

Carey: Anything you want. Usually I tend to recommend grabbing some friends and some drinks and making a night out of things when a major card like this pops up, but this one is so stacked that I honestly don’t care if you end up having to watch it alone in your bedroom with some Top Ramen or at a bar with a hundred other fight fans. No matter what happens, just make sure you get in front of a TV set before the first prelim and don’t move for the rest of the night. This is going to be a fantastic night of fights, and every single one of them has something to make sure you get invested. My colleague is right that this is more than likely going to be a long night of fights, but the quality of the card is so high that it’s one you should be looking forward to.




Carey’s Picks

Jones
Lesnar
Tate
Edgar
Velasquez
Zingano
Hendricks
Dillashaw
Northcutt
Sanchez
Mousasi
Miller


Symes’ Picks

Jones
Lesnar
Tate
Edgar
Velasquez
Zingano
Hendricks
Dillashaw
Northcutt
Lauzon
Mousasi
Miller
 

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Florian -- Daniel Cormier
Bisping -- Daniel Cormier


Florian -- Brock Lesnar
Bisping -- Mark Hunt
 

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