UFC 200: Full Card Preview and Predictions
By Steven Rondina - Bleacher Report
Brock Lesnar vs. Mark Hunt
Brock Lesnar is taking a little bit of a vacation from his pro wrestling career, but a vacation for the Beast Incarnate isn't a trip to Hawaii. It isn't even relaxing at his home in the forests of rural Saskatchewan. A vacation for Lesnar is beating somebody up and it will likely be announced who that somebody is in the coming days.
Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne
Injuries have defined Cain Velasquez's career to this point, and the former heavyweight champ needs to show the world that he's still as good as ever. Set to face the tricky (but manageable) Travis Browne, Velasquez needs to run through him here in order to keep his spot near the front of the title shot line.
Cat Zingano vs. Julianna Pena
Two of the most interesting fighters in the women's bantamweight division are set to face off at UFC 200. Cat Zingano sports one of the strongest resumes in the division, with wins over champion Miesha Tate, top contender Amanda Nunes, Invicta FC champ Barb Honchak and No. 9-ranked Raquel Pennington. Julianna Pena is the hottest young name in the division, with a ferocious edge that goes nicely alongside her ground-and-pound skills.
The winner will almost certainly get a title fight...depending on what happens with Ronda Rousey, of course.
Johny Hendricks vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Johny Hendricks and Kelvin Gastelum both desperately need wins after injury layoffs and unfortunate losses. Whoever wins instantly gets into the thick of the welterweight title picture. Whoever loses has a rough year or two in front of them.
TJ Dillashaw vs. Raphael Assuncao
TJ Dillashaw was on the bad end of Dominick Cruz's comeback story, and needs to start on his own path to redemption. That begins at UFC 200, when he looks to get his win back over Raphael Assuncao, who beat him back in 2013.
Sage Northcutt vs. Enrique Marin
The UFC is still all-in on their favorite young fighter, Sage Northcutt, and want to get him back in the win column. They've found their mark in The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 runner-up Enrique Marin who, quite honestly, has next to no chance of winning.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Derek Brunson
Gegard Mousasi is a skilled veteran looking to get his feet back under him. Derek Brunson is an up-and-comer looking to add a big name to his resume. It's a standard situation in combat sports and, unfortunately, it's a fight that will likely irreversibly set the career trajectory for both men.
Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Lauzon
Two longtime fan favorites that, somehow, haven't crossed paths until today. Sanchez is known for his frenetic pace and well-rounded skills. Lauzon is known for his finishing skills and propensity for putting on Fight of the Year candidates.
Neither man will creep closer to a title shot with a win here. This one is strictly for the fans.
Takanori Gomi vs. Jim Miller
This is pretty much the same as the last fight. Old fan favorites, known for putting on fun fights. What comes next for either man is unknown, but they'll have the chance to put on a good show in front of a massive crowd at UFC 200.
Records: Brock Lesnar (5-3), Mark Hunt (12-10-1)
The former UFC heavyweight champion, former WWE world heavyweight champion, former NCAA Division I heavyweight champion, the Beast Incarnate, Brock Lesnar is back in MMA!
Ariel Helwani at MMA Fighting broke the news Saturday that MMA's longtime pay-per-view kingpin was going to take a break from the ring in order to return to the cage at UFC 200, and the WWE later confirmed that he was granted a "one-off opportunity" ahead of WWE's SummerSlam event. Lesnar told ESPN's SportsCenter on Monday that his opponent would be fan-favorite power-puncher Mark Hunt (h/t MMAjunkie's Dann Stupp.)
That's a lot to digest, for certain, but once it all sinks in, it's an incredibly interesting matchup.
Hunt is probably the single hardest puncher in MMA today. A former K-1 Kickboxing World Grand Prix champion, he jumped from kickboxing to MMA in 2004. While it briefly seemed like he would retire after a harsh five-fight skid on the Japanese circuit, a clause in his contract with the defunct Pride FC promotion resulted in his joining the UFC in 2011.
After an ugly debut loss to Sean McCorkle, Hunt broke off four straight wins to assert himself as a title contender, and won over legions of fans with his jaw-dropping (and jaw-breaking) knockout power. Despite being 42 years old, his in-cage skills seem as sharp as ever and his striking is so formidable that it's hard to count him out against anyone, all the way up to heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic.
Lesnar is the perfect foil for Hunt.
While Hunt is a teapot of a man (5'10", 265 pounds), Lesnar is 265 pounds of angry, corn-fed beef. While Hunt is motivated by competition and pride, once turning down a $450,000 buyout of his Pride FC contract because he wanted the opportunity to fight in the Octagon, Lesnar is a mercenary, boasting about his bank accounts while shrugging when asked where all of his belts, trophies and medals were. While Hunt earns his wins with his toughness and striking, Lesnar does so with athleticism and wrestling.
How the fight pans out hinges on Lesnar's takedowns. If he still has the skills he showed back in 2009 when he destroyed Frank Mir at UFC 100, he should be able to control Hunt from bell to bell. If Hunt can keep things standing, though? Good night, Brock.
Lesnar is the pick here right now...but that will likely change a few times before fight night.
Prediction: Brock Lesnar def. Mark Hunt by Unanimous Decision
Records: Jose Aldo (25-2), Frankie Edgar (20-4-1)
On its own merits, Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar is an amazing fight. Aldo is an all-time great, known for his ferocious striking and impenetrable takedown defense. Edgar is known for his all-around skills and his immeasurable heart.
It should be a fight that whets the appetites of hardcore fans and catches the eyes of the casuals turning out for the main event. Unfortunately, very little attention is being paid, due to the conspicuously absent Conor McGregor.
Officially, McGregor remains the UFC featherweight champion, and the unified lineal champion, having won the title less than a year ago with a 13-second knockout of Aldo at UFC 194. Unofficially, however, his vengeance quest against Nate Diaz makes it unclear as to whether or not he will ever return to 145 pounds. Aldo and Edgar will face off for the "interim" featherweight title which, despite having some level of intrinsic value, feels like little more than a silver medal for the winner's waist.
Neither man has seriously transformed since their first showdown in 2013, which Aldo won via unanimous decision. While Edgar most certainly has the tools to take that win back, Aldo's stiff jab and amazing sprawl should allow him to out-point Edgar yet again.
Prediction: Jose Aldo def. Frankie Edgar by Unanimous Decision
Records: Miesha Tate (18-5), Amanda Nunes (12-4)
After years of fighting just for respect, Miesha Tate fought for a title at UFC 196 and, against all odds, took gold with an amazing last-round submission of Holly Holm. While there were questions about whether she would wait to face Ronda Rousey at some indiscriminate point in the future, she opted for a quick turnaround, and will make her first defense against Amanda Nunes at UFC 200.
Nunes has been a staple of the bantamweight top-10 for years now, and has taken wins off a number of names including Vanessa Porto, Julia Budd, Sara McMann and, most recently, Valentina Shevchenko. While she has struggled with top-notch competition in the past, she has long been regarded as a legitimate talent based on her athleticism, ferocity and formidable in-fighting.
Discerning how these two match up is difficult, given the incredible inconsistency of both women. While Tate, obviously, is a championship-caliber competitor, her greatest strengths are her intangibles rather than actual "Xs and Os" type skills. Nunes, meanwhile, is the exact opposite, with incredible technical prowess, but questionable cardio and fight IQ.
While it's very possible that Nunes could tag Tate to take the title, her propensity for fading late will likely prove to be the deciding factor. Look for Tate to weather the early storm before finishing the fight late.
Prediction: Miesha Tate def. Amanda Nunes by TKO in Round 4
Records: Daniel Cormier (17-1), Jon Jones (22-1)
I previewed Daniel Cormier vs. Jon Jones 2 just a few months ago when they were set to face off at UFC 197. While things haven't radically changed since then, the myths about Jones' return to action were given a bit of a reality check.
Entering UFC 197, the talk was about "The New Jon Jones." He was eating healthy, living on the straight edge and pumping iron like nobody's business. He was bigger, stronger and more motivated than ever...which says a lot, since he was already in GOAT contention. With that in mind, I predicted the following:
Bigger, meaner and more dedicated than before, Jones seems poised to dominate the competition with even less effort. The first person to be victimized by this new-look Jones will be Cormier.
Obviously, things didn't quite pan out that way.
After Cormier pulled out of their fight, Jones faced the unheralded Ovince Saint Preux. While OSP is a formidable athlete, he has little to offer top-end fighters (save a sneaky left hand) and has consistently come up short against big names like Gegard Mousasi, Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira. Despite the fact that he posed little threat to the former champ, Jones just didn't seem to have the creativity, confidence and swagger that defined him for years.
That spawned a lot of questions. Was he rusty? Did all that power lifting hurt his cardio? Do opponent changes make that much of a difference with Jones? Could we have a post-sex scandal Tiger Woods situation on our hands?
Despite those questions, Jones remains the clear favorite. Still, there is a level of doubt when it comes to the outcome of this match that wasn't there before UFC 197.
Prediction: Jon Jones def. Daniel Cormier by Unanimous Decision
By Steven Rondina - Bleacher Report
Brock Lesnar vs. Mark Hunt
Brock Lesnar is taking a little bit of a vacation from his pro wrestling career, but a vacation for the Beast Incarnate isn't a trip to Hawaii. It isn't even relaxing at his home in the forests of rural Saskatchewan. A vacation for Lesnar is beating somebody up and it will likely be announced who that somebody is in the coming days.
Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne
Injuries have defined Cain Velasquez's career to this point, and the former heavyweight champ needs to show the world that he's still as good as ever. Set to face the tricky (but manageable) Travis Browne, Velasquez needs to run through him here in order to keep his spot near the front of the title shot line.
Cat Zingano vs. Julianna Pena
Two of the most interesting fighters in the women's bantamweight division are set to face off at UFC 200. Cat Zingano sports one of the strongest resumes in the division, with wins over champion Miesha Tate, top contender Amanda Nunes, Invicta FC champ Barb Honchak and No. 9-ranked Raquel Pennington. Julianna Pena is the hottest young name in the division, with a ferocious edge that goes nicely alongside her ground-and-pound skills.
The winner will almost certainly get a title fight...depending on what happens with Ronda Rousey, of course.
Johny Hendricks vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Johny Hendricks and Kelvin Gastelum both desperately need wins after injury layoffs and unfortunate losses. Whoever wins instantly gets into the thick of the welterweight title picture. Whoever loses has a rough year or two in front of them.
TJ Dillashaw vs. Raphael Assuncao
TJ Dillashaw was on the bad end of Dominick Cruz's comeback story, and needs to start on his own path to redemption. That begins at UFC 200, when he looks to get his win back over Raphael Assuncao, who beat him back in 2013.
Sage Northcutt vs. Enrique Marin
The UFC is still all-in on their favorite young fighter, Sage Northcutt, and want to get him back in the win column. They've found their mark in The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 runner-up Enrique Marin who, quite honestly, has next to no chance of winning.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Derek Brunson
Gegard Mousasi is a skilled veteran looking to get his feet back under him. Derek Brunson is an up-and-comer looking to add a big name to his resume. It's a standard situation in combat sports and, unfortunately, it's a fight that will likely irreversibly set the career trajectory for both men.
Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Lauzon
Two longtime fan favorites that, somehow, haven't crossed paths until today. Sanchez is known for his frenetic pace and well-rounded skills. Lauzon is known for his finishing skills and propensity for putting on Fight of the Year candidates.
Neither man will creep closer to a title shot with a win here. This one is strictly for the fans.
Takanori Gomi vs. Jim Miller
This is pretty much the same as the last fight. Old fan favorites, known for putting on fun fights. What comes next for either man is unknown, but they'll have the chance to put on a good show in front of a massive crowd at UFC 200.
Records: Brock Lesnar (5-3), Mark Hunt (12-10-1)
The former UFC heavyweight champion, former WWE world heavyweight champion, former NCAA Division I heavyweight champion, the Beast Incarnate, Brock Lesnar is back in MMA!
Ariel Helwani at MMA Fighting broke the news Saturday that MMA's longtime pay-per-view kingpin was going to take a break from the ring in order to return to the cage at UFC 200, and the WWE later confirmed that he was granted a "one-off opportunity" ahead of WWE's SummerSlam event. Lesnar told ESPN's SportsCenter on Monday that his opponent would be fan-favorite power-puncher Mark Hunt (h/t MMAjunkie's Dann Stupp.)
That's a lot to digest, for certain, but once it all sinks in, it's an incredibly interesting matchup.
Hunt is probably the single hardest puncher in MMA today. A former K-1 Kickboxing World Grand Prix champion, he jumped from kickboxing to MMA in 2004. While it briefly seemed like he would retire after a harsh five-fight skid on the Japanese circuit, a clause in his contract with the defunct Pride FC promotion resulted in his joining the UFC in 2011.
After an ugly debut loss to Sean McCorkle, Hunt broke off four straight wins to assert himself as a title contender, and won over legions of fans with his jaw-dropping (and jaw-breaking) knockout power. Despite being 42 years old, his in-cage skills seem as sharp as ever and his striking is so formidable that it's hard to count him out against anyone, all the way up to heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic.
Lesnar is the perfect foil for Hunt.
While Hunt is a teapot of a man (5'10", 265 pounds), Lesnar is 265 pounds of angry, corn-fed beef. While Hunt is motivated by competition and pride, once turning down a $450,000 buyout of his Pride FC contract because he wanted the opportunity to fight in the Octagon, Lesnar is a mercenary, boasting about his bank accounts while shrugging when asked where all of his belts, trophies and medals were. While Hunt earns his wins with his toughness and striking, Lesnar does so with athleticism and wrestling.
How the fight pans out hinges on Lesnar's takedowns. If he still has the skills he showed back in 2009 when he destroyed Frank Mir at UFC 100, he should be able to control Hunt from bell to bell. If Hunt can keep things standing, though? Good night, Brock.
Lesnar is the pick here right now...but that will likely change a few times before fight night.
Prediction: Brock Lesnar def. Mark Hunt by Unanimous Decision
Records: Jose Aldo (25-2), Frankie Edgar (20-4-1)
On its own merits, Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar is an amazing fight. Aldo is an all-time great, known for his ferocious striking and impenetrable takedown defense. Edgar is known for his all-around skills and his immeasurable heart.
It should be a fight that whets the appetites of hardcore fans and catches the eyes of the casuals turning out for the main event. Unfortunately, very little attention is being paid, due to the conspicuously absent Conor McGregor.
Officially, McGregor remains the UFC featherweight champion, and the unified lineal champion, having won the title less than a year ago with a 13-second knockout of Aldo at UFC 194. Unofficially, however, his vengeance quest against Nate Diaz makes it unclear as to whether or not he will ever return to 145 pounds. Aldo and Edgar will face off for the "interim" featherweight title which, despite having some level of intrinsic value, feels like little more than a silver medal for the winner's waist.
Neither man has seriously transformed since their first showdown in 2013, which Aldo won via unanimous decision. While Edgar most certainly has the tools to take that win back, Aldo's stiff jab and amazing sprawl should allow him to out-point Edgar yet again.
Prediction: Jose Aldo def. Frankie Edgar by Unanimous Decision
Records: Miesha Tate (18-5), Amanda Nunes (12-4)
After years of fighting just for respect, Miesha Tate fought for a title at UFC 196 and, against all odds, took gold with an amazing last-round submission of Holly Holm. While there were questions about whether she would wait to face Ronda Rousey at some indiscriminate point in the future, she opted for a quick turnaround, and will make her first defense against Amanda Nunes at UFC 200.
Nunes has been a staple of the bantamweight top-10 for years now, and has taken wins off a number of names including Vanessa Porto, Julia Budd, Sara McMann and, most recently, Valentina Shevchenko. While she has struggled with top-notch competition in the past, she has long been regarded as a legitimate talent based on her athleticism, ferocity and formidable in-fighting.
Discerning how these two match up is difficult, given the incredible inconsistency of both women. While Tate, obviously, is a championship-caliber competitor, her greatest strengths are her intangibles rather than actual "Xs and Os" type skills. Nunes, meanwhile, is the exact opposite, with incredible technical prowess, but questionable cardio and fight IQ.
While it's very possible that Nunes could tag Tate to take the title, her propensity for fading late will likely prove to be the deciding factor. Look for Tate to weather the early storm before finishing the fight late.
Prediction: Miesha Tate def. Amanda Nunes by TKO in Round 4
Records: Daniel Cormier (17-1), Jon Jones (22-1)
I previewed Daniel Cormier vs. Jon Jones 2 just a few months ago when they were set to face off at UFC 197. While things haven't radically changed since then, the myths about Jones' return to action were given a bit of a reality check.
Entering UFC 197, the talk was about "The New Jon Jones." He was eating healthy, living on the straight edge and pumping iron like nobody's business. He was bigger, stronger and more motivated than ever...which says a lot, since he was already in GOAT contention. With that in mind, I predicted the following:
Bigger, meaner and more dedicated than before, Jones seems poised to dominate the competition with even less effort. The first person to be victimized by this new-look Jones will be Cormier.
Obviously, things didn't quite pan out that way.
After Cormier pulled out of their fight, Jones faced the unheralded Ovince Saint Preux. While OSP is a formidable athlete, he has little to offer top-end fighters (save a sneaky left hand) and has consistently come up short against big names like Gegard Mousasi, Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira. Despite the fact that he posed little threat to the former champ, Jones just didn't seem to have the creativity, confidence and swagger that defined him for years.
That spawned a lot of questions. Was he rusty? Did all that power lifting hurt his cardio? Do opponent changes make that much of a difference with Jones? Could we have a post-sex scandal Tiger Woods situation on our hands?
Despite those questions, Jones remains the clear favorite. Still, there is a level of doubt when it comes to the outcome of this match that wasn't there before UFC 197.
Prediction: Jon Jones def. Daniel Cormier by Unanimous Decision
The Nevada State Athletic Commission today named referees and judges for some of the biggest fights at UFC 200.
Marc Goddard will referee the vacant featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo (25-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC) and Frankie Edgar (20-4-1 MMA, 14-4-1 UFC). Tony Weeks, Marcos Rosales and Junichiro Kamjo will handle judging duties.
Herb Dean will be the third person in the ring when Miesha Tate (18-5 MMA, 5-2 UFC) defends her women’s bantamweight title against Amanda Nunes (12-4 MMA, 5-1 UFC)
John McCarthy will referee the main event between light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier (17-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) and interim champion Jon Jones (22-1 MMA, 16-1 UFC) while Derek Cleary, Sal D’Amato and Glenn Trowbridge handle the scorecards.
Marc Goddard will referee the vacant featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo (25-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC) and Frankie Edgar (20-4-1 MMA, 14-4-1 UFC). Tony Weeks, Marcos Rosales and Junichiro Kamjo will handle judging duties.
Herb Dean will be the third person in the ring when Miesha Tate (18-5 MMA, 5-2 UFC) defends her women’s bantamweight title against Amanda Nunes (12-4 MMA, 5-1 UFC)
John McCarthy will referee the main event between light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier (17-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) and interim champion Jon Jones (22-1 MMA, 16-1 UFC) while Derek Cleary, Sal D’Amato and Glenn Trowbridge handle the scorecards.
UFC 200 Predictions
from Attack The Back
Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier 2
There’s a good chance that this rematch will steal the show. Even before both men met at UFC 182 (a deceivingly close encounter which Jon Jones won via unanimous decision), it’s been clear that they despise each other, for quite a few different reasons, and it looks as though they’ll finally be able to settle their differences once and for all at UFC 200.
Many forget how close the first encounter was, wherein Jon Jones clearly won, but on many scorecards, by a count of three rounds to two. DC stayed competitive until he ran into some cardio issues in the championship stanzas, but even then, Jones wasn’t able to dominate him. Although Bones has the reach and height advantages, DC is probably stronger, and certainly possesses a more technical wrestling game.
While certainly not guaranteed, given Jones’s skills, there’s a good chance that Daniel Cormier will shock most everyone and walk away with the undisputed title here (Jones is the interim champion), as a result of his tenacity, his consistent preparation, and the still-present out-of-cage performance detractors affecting Jones.
Official Prediction: Daniel Cormier via Unanimous Decision
Frankie Edgar vs Jose Aldo 2
What many are overlooking in this awesome rematch and co-main event is that Aldo will certainly compete with less confidence than he has in the past. Forget that he already beat Edgar once (a competitive decision); you’re only as good as your last fight, and the fact of the matter is that that Aldo stepped onto a massive stage in his last outing against Conor McGregor, where there was an abundance of bad blood between both men, and was KO’d in just thirteen seconds. While this would be a debilitating loss for any fighter, the reality is that is reminded many of a fact that was widely overlooked, given Aldo’s long-running reign of terror the featherweight division: he is only human.
This point will be abundantly clear to Aldo against the streaking and confident Edgar, and as a result of it and the core skills of “The Answer”, “Scarface” may be outpointed. Frankie’s cardio doesn’t quit, and as was apparent in the Mendes fight, his striking—and more specifically, his ability to land power punches—has never been better.
Official Prediction: Frankie Edgar via TKO (Punches), Round 2
from Attack The Back
Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier 2
There’s a good chance that this rematch will steal the show. Even before both men met at UFC 182 (a deceivingly close encounter which Jon Jones won via unanimous decision), it’s been clear that they despise each other, for quite a few different reasons, and it looks as though they’ll finally be able to settle their differences once and for all at UFC 200.
Many forget how close the first encounter was, wherein Jon Jones clearly won, but on many scorecards, by a count of three rounds to two. DC stayed competitive until he ran into some cardio issues in the championship stanzas, but even then, Jones wasn’t able to dominate him. Although Bones has the reach and height advantages, DC is probably stronger, and certainly possesses a more technical wrestling game.
While certainly not guaranteed, given Jones’s skills, there’s a good chance that Daniel Cormier will shock most everyone and walk away with the undisputed title here (Jones is the interim champion), as a result of his tenacity, his consistent preparation, and the still-present out-of-cage performance detractors affecting Jones.
Official Prediction: Daniel Cormier via Unanimous Decision
Frankie Edgar vs Jose Aldo 2
What many are overlooking in this awesome rematch and co-main event is that Aldo will certainly compete with less confidence than he has in the past. Forget that he already beat Edgar once (a competitive decision); you’re only as good as your last fight, and the fact of the matter is that that Aldo stepped onto a massive stage in his last outing against Conor McGregor, where there was an abundance of bad blood between both men, and was KO’d in just thirteen seconds. While this would be a debilitating loss for any fighter, the reality is that is reminded many of a fact that was widely overlooked, given Aldo’s long-running reign of terror the featherweight division: he is only human.
This point will be abundantly clear to Aldo against the streaking and confident Edgar, and as a result of it and the core skills of “The Answer”, “Scarface” may be outpointed. Frankie’s cardio doesn’t quit, and as was apparent in the Mendes fight, his striking—and more specifically, his ability to land power punches—has never been better.
Official Prediction: Frankie Edgar via TKO (Punches), Round 2
UFC 200 Breakdown: Brock Lesnar vs Mark Hunt
from MMA Odds Breaker
Mark Hunt (Record: 12-10, -160 Favorite, Fighter Grade: B+)
The Auckland, New Zealand born and Australian trained fighter has been a fixture in the top ten of the UFC’s heavyweight rankings. Hunt is on a two fight winning streak knocking out Frank Mir and Antonio Silva back to back in the first round. Hunt has competed for the UFC title, but it’s safe to say his UFC 200 bout will be his highest profile fight to date.
The eighth ranked heavyweight in the UFC, Super Samoan Mark Hunt is one of the most feared fighters in the division. In a division filled with tall fighters with superior reach, Hunt gets by on powerful and skillful striking. Of his twelve career MMA wins, nine of them have come by knockout. He’s the only fighter to knockout Roy Nelson inside a UFC octagon. He did so with superior timing and powerful hands. That’s what you get with Mark Hunt; a talented striker in a rather unusual body for high level MMA. Hunt is as resilient as they come. His first fight with Antonio Silva was one of the all-time great fights as he was able to battle from nearly being finished multiple times to find his way to the scorecards. While he was outclassed by Stipe Miocic, he was able to survive nearly five rounds with the now heavyweight champion. He’s made some effort to work on his ground game; it’s still very much a liability. If a fighter is able to gain top control, he very much has an opportunity to finish the fight with a submission. Of his ten career losses, six of them have been by submission. In a traditional stand up exchange, Hunt can compete with anybody in the UFC. When it evolves beyond that, Hunt is in for a much more difficult contest.
Brock Lesnar (Record: 5-3, +140 Underdog, Fighter Grade: B+)
The Beast Incarnate returns to the UFC for the first time since a December 2011 loss to Alistair Overeem. Lesnar has been granted permission by WWE for a one off fight in the UFC. The former UFC champion has been keeping in great physical shape as a fixture at the WWE’s biggest events.
A two time Division I All American and one time national champion in collegiate wrestling, Brock Lesnar’s game starts and ends in with his wrestling. He’s a freakish athlete that is arguably the best athlete to ever compete in the UFC’s heavyweight division. In his eight career fights, Lesnar landed an incredible 57% of his takedown attempts. He was able to score takedowns in all but one of his fights. In top control, Lesnar has very good ground and pound and will wallop opponents from that position. He also has an underrated submission game and can finish from top position. While Lesnar is a great athlete with decent movement, his stand up is a bit too tight and his strikes are not very free flowing. In a prolonged stand up exchange, Lesnar could be caught by a quality striker.
Match-up
The UFC booked a great stylistic clash for its UFC 200 co-main event. Mark Hunt is one of the best kickboxers in MMA and is a threat to knockout his opponent in every single fight he is put in. Meanwhile, Brock Lesnar is perhaps the best heavyweight wrestler currently signed to a UFC contract. He’s a former NCAA Champion in wrestling and his athletic, physical style makes him a difficult opponent to prepare for. This is a difficult fight to call as both fighters have a clear path to victory. Hunt is more than capable of knocking out Lesnar; his kicks are devastating and his punches are accurate and powerful. With that said, he has to stay on the feet to be a factor. That’s going to be difficult to do against Lesnar who is a very good offensive wrestler. At the beginning of each round, Hunt will be looking for the knockout, but I expect Lesnar to avoid the early strikes and score a takedown quickly in this bout. He knows he cannot compete with Hunt on the feet. On the ground, Lesnar has a big advantage and will use his length and positioning to look for a submission. Given Hunt’s rather novice approach to the grappling, I like Lesnar’s chances of scoring a submission win. If you’re looking for a long shot prop to play at UFC 200, Lesnar by submission at +700 is a solid option.
from MMA Odds Breaker
Mark Hunt (Record: 12-10, -160 Favorite, Fighter Grade: B+)
The Auckland, New Zealand born and Australian trained fighter has been a fixture in the top ten of the UFC’s heavyweight rankings. Hunt is on a two fight winning streak knocking out Frank Mir and Antonio Silva back to back in the first round. Hunt has competed for the UFC title, but it’s safe to say his UFC 200 bout will be his highest profile fight to date.
The eighth ranked heavyweight in the UFC, Super Samoan Mark Hunt is one of the most feared fighters in the division. In a division filled with tall fighters with superior reach, Hunt gets by on powerful and skillful striking. Of his twelve career MMA wins, nine of them have come by knockout. He’s the only fighter to knockout Roy Nelson inside a UFC octagon. He did so with superior timing and powerful hands. That’s what you get with Mark Hunt; a talented striker in a rather unusual body for high level MMA. Hunt is as resilient as they come. His first fight with Antonio Silva was one of the all-time great fights as he was able to battle from nearly being finished multiple times to find his way to the scorecards. While he was outclassed by Stipe Miocic, he was able to survive nearly five rounds with the now heavyweight champion. He’s made some effort to work on his ground game; it’s still very much a liability. If a fighter is able to gain top control, he very much has an opportunity to finish the fight with a submission. Of his ten career losses, six of them have been by submission. In a traditional stand up exchange, Hunt can compete with anybody in the UFC. When it evolves beyond that, Hunt is in for a much more difficult contest.
Brock Lesnar (Record: 5-3, +140 Underdog, Fighter Grade: B+)
The Beast Incarnate returns to the UFC for the first time since a December 2011 loss to Alistair Overeem. Lesnar has been granted permission by WWE for a one off fight in the UFC. The former UFC champion has been keeping in great physical shape as a fixture at the WWE’s biggest events.
A two time Division I All American and one time national champion in collegiate wrestling, Brock Lesnar’s game starts and ends in with his wrestling. He’s a freakish athlete that is arguably the best athlete to ever compete in the UFC’s heavyweight division. In his eight career fights, Lesnar landed an incredible 57% of his takedown attempts. He was able to score takedowns in all but one of his fights. In top control, Lesnar has very good ground and pound and will wallop opponents from that position. He also has an underrated submission game and can finish from top position. While Lesnar is a great athlete with decent movement, his stand up is a bit too tight and his strikes are not very free flowing. In a prolonged stand up exchange, Lesnar could be caught by a quality striker.
Match-up
The UFC booked a great stylistic clash for its UFC 200 co-main event. Mark Hunt is one of the best kickboxers in MMA and is a threat to knockout his opponent in every single fight he is put in. Meanwhile, Brock Lesnar is perhaps the best heavyweight wrestler currently signed to a UFC contract. He’s a former NCAA Champion in wrestling and his athletic, physical style makes him a difficult opponent to prepare for. This is a difficult fight to call as both fighters have a clear path to victory. Hunt is more than capable of knocking out Lesnar; his kicks are devastating and his punches are accurate and powerful. With that said, he has to stay on the feet to be a factor. That’s going to be difficult to do against Lesnar who is a very good offensive wrestler. At the beginning of each round, Hunt will be looking for the knockout, but I expect Lesnar to avoid the early strikes and score a takedown quickly in this bout. He knows he cannot compete with Hunt on the feet. On the ground, Lesnar has a big advantage and will use his length and positioning to look for a submission. Given Hunt’s rather novice approach to the grappling, I like Lesnar’s chances of scoring a submission win. If you’re looking for a long shot prop to play at UFC 200, Lesnar by submission at +700 is a solid option.
Early Look at the Fight Pass Prelims for UFC 200
from MMA Odds Breaker
Getting the action started for UFC 200 for the Fight Pass prelims will be a lightweight contest between PRIDE/UFC veteran Takanori “The Fireball Kid” Gomi and New Jersey’s Jim Miller. These fan favorite fighters are certainly expected to get the show rolling on a high note.
This is “do or die” time for both Gomi and Miller, as both 155-pounders are currently on two-fight losing skids and will be looking to avoid falling to three losses in a row. Miller has a number of advantages heading into this contest and is a favorite to win at the sportsbooks, but hardcore fight fans still hope “The Fireball Kid” can find a way to pull it off.
The injury bug has so far struck the UFC 200 fight card just once, and it resulted in Strikeforce veteran Derek Brunson being removed from his scheduled match-up against “The Armenian Assassin” Gegard Mousasi. Stepping in to replace Brunson is Thiago “Marreta” Santos, a Brazilian striker who has been red-hot, riding a four-fight winning streak with four of those victories coming by way of T/KO.
Mousasi vs Santos is an excellent match-up in the UFC’s middleweight division and could prove to be a contender for the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus, if the fight plays out on the feet. The fact that this fight is middling the Fight Pass prelims speaks volumes on how stacked this UFC 200 fight card is.
“The Dreamcatcher” will be looking to make it two in a row for himself following a unanimous decision win over former UFC Middleweight title challenger Thales Leites back in February. On the other end, Santos will be hoping to score the biggest victory of his professional mixed martial arts career.
The featured bout on the UFC Fight Pass prelims for UFC 200 will be a barn-burner between two of the biggest fan favorites in the UFC’s lightweight division in Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez and Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon. A match-up long in the making, these two are finally set to throw down and potentially take home the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ honors, as they are both often prone to do.
This would also be a rare “winner vs loser” match-up in the UFC’s 155-pound division, with Sanchez coming off a unanimous decision win over Jim Miller and Lauzon coming short on the judges’ scorecards against Evan Dunham in his latest outing inside the Octagon. Both men are nearing the end of their respected careers, so a victory here would be huge for either of them, and I expect they will go all out in an effort to earn it.
Sanchez vs Louzon is certainly a match-up that has “fireworks” written all over it. If there is one fight on this UFC 200 card that should guarantee to entertain, I think it is safe to say that it will be this one.
from MMA Odds Breaker
Getting the action started for UFC 200 for the Fight Pass prelims will be a lightweight contest between PRIDE/UFC veteran Takanori “The Fireball Kid” Gomi and New Jersey’s Jim Miller. These fan favorite fighters are certainly expected to get the show rolling on a high note.
This is “do or die” time for both Gomi and Miller, as both 155-pounders are currently on two-fight losing skids and will be looking to avoid falling to three losses in a row. Miller has a number of advantages heading into this contest and is a favorite to win at the sportsbooks, but hardcore fight fans still hope “The Fireball Kid” can find a way to pull it off.
The injury bug has so far struck the UFC 200 fight card just once, and it resulted in Strikeforce veteran Derek Brunson being removed from his scheduled match-up against “The Armenian Assassin” Gegard Mousasi. Stepping in to replace Brunson is Thiago “Marreta” Santos, a Brazilian striker who has been red-hot, riding a four-fight winning streak with four of those victories coming by way of T/KO.
Mousasi vs Santos is an excellent match-up in the UFC’s middleweight division and could prove to be a contender for the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus, if the fight plays out on the feet. The fact that this fight is middling the Fight Pass prelims speaks volumes on how stacked this UFC 200 fight card is.
“The Dreamcatcher” will be looking to make it two in a row for himself following a unanimous decision win over former UFC Middleweight title challenger Thales Leites back in February. On the other end, Santos will be hoping to score the biggest victory of his professional mixed martial arts career.
The featured bout on the UFC Fight Pass prelims for UFC 200 will be a barn-burner between two of the biggest fan favorites in the UFC’s lightweight division in Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez and Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon. A match-up long in the making, these two are finally set to throw down and potentially take home the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ honors, as they are both often prone to do.
This would also be a rare “winner vs loser” match-up in the UFC’s 155-pound division, with Sanchez coming off a unanimous decision win over Jim Miller and Lauzon coming short on the judges’ scorecards against Evan Dunham in his latest outing inside the Octagon. Both men are nearing the end of their respected careers, so a victory here would be huge for either of them, and I expect they will go all out in an effort to earn it.
Sanchez vs Louzon is certainly a match-up that has “fireworks” written all over it. If there is one fight on this UFC 200 card that should guarantee to entertain, I think it is safe to say that it will be this one.
T.J. Dillashaw vs. Raphael Assuncao Head-to-Toe Breakdown
By Nathan McCarter - Bleacher Report
Striking
If this was the 2013 version of Dillashaw vs. Assuncao it would be more difficult to break down, but the change in Dillashaw's style makes this an easy choice.
The former champion is a better striker than Assuncao. Point blank.
Assuncao edged Dillashaw in their first encounter by three significant strikes. Dillashaw only got off 29 total. So, how much did his style and output change in the wake of that defeat? Since the loss, Dillashaw has posted no less than 109 significant strikes in a fight, per FightMetric.
With the increase in his output, it is difficult to deny Dillashaw will have the edge on the feet. His movement also makes him a more difficult target to hit, and that will be a problem for the more straightforward striker that is Assuncao.
There is always the possibility Dillashaw could get clipped, but outside of that remote chance, the stand-up battle should be firmly in favor of the former champion.
Edge: Dillashaw
Grappling
As noted, Dillashaw has improved greatly since their first fight. The improvement does not stop with his striking. He is also a better grappler.
Even so, this would still be Dillashaw's category to take. In their prior meeting, Assuncao failed on all six of his takedown attempts while Dillashaw completed two of his four. There is tangible evidence to support the fact that Dillashaw is simply better.
It's not conjecture.
Regardless, do not take Assuncao's grappling ability lightly. He can still get this fight to the mat, but more importantly, it will be his ability to stifle Dillashaw against the fence. It won't be the most beautiful strategy, but Assuncao will need to stop Dillashaw's movement to find success.
Edge: Dillashaw
Submissions
Dillashaw went for more submissions than Assuncao in their 2013 fight, but that doesn't mean he's the better submission artist. It merely means he was more aggressive.
Ironically enough, both men's last submission victory came over Vaughn Lee. What does that mean for this fight? Nothing, but it's an interesting note.
The American may be more aggressive in seeking finishes, but from a technical standpoint, it is hard to deny Assuncao's acumen on the mat. And that is why he will get the nod in this section. Assuncao is more selective, but also more apt to get the tap. His patience will also protect him should he find himself defending attacks from Dillashaw.
Technique over aggression wins out here.
Edge: Assuncao
X-Factors
Assuncao's X-Factor: Inactivity
Assuncao is a fine fighter, but he's only fought twice since beating Dillashaw, and both fights were in 2014.
The division has had three champions in that time (Barao, Dillashaw, Cruz), and a new crop of bantamweights have emerged. We don't know what improvements, if any, he has made to his game in his time away from competition.
There is also the matter of cage rust. A slow start will almost guarantee a loss as Dillashaw runs circles around him.
Dillashaw's X-Factor: Tempo
Dillashaw's activity early in the fight will be crucial to how this fight plays out. His style favors high output, and low output opens the door for another contentious decision.
Assuncao is not going to match him throwing 100-plus significant strikes. It's not what he does. Dillashaw has a chance to influence the judges by simply being the more active fighter as he sets a high pace to the fight, and that pace will also work against Assuncao's cardio.
As this fight is only three rounds, Dillashaw should have no problem keeping his motor high throughout its duration.
Prediction
Dillashaw vs. Assuncao II will be a runaway.
There is no doubt Assuncao is a solid fighter, but Dillashaw is better—a lot better.
The fight will almost look as if Dillashaw is toying with Assuncao as the Brazilian struggles with the speed and movement of his opponent. The speed differential will allow Dillashaw to rack up points on the judges' scorecards. He will win each round, and could possibly net a 10-8 round if he is able to hurt Assuncao.
Getting the finish will be difficult. While Dillashaw will dominate the action, Assuncao is one of the toughest outs in the division. Dillashaw will play it smart and not put himself in harm's way. He'll work Assuncao over on the feet and complete several well-timed takedowns to secure the rounds.
The fight will be scored 30-27 or 30-26 across the board. This will never be in doubt.
Prediction: Dillashaw defeats Assuncao by unanimous decision
By Nathan McCarter - Bleacher Report
Striking
If this was the 2013 version of Dillashaw vs. Assuncao it would be more difficult to break down, but the change in Dillashaw's style makes this an easy choice.
The former champion is a better striker than Assuncao. Point blank.
Assuncao edged Dillashaw in their first encounter by three significant strikes. Dillashaw only got off 29 total. So, how much did his style and output change in the wake of that defeat? Since the loss, Dillashaw has posted no less than 109 significant strikes in a fight, per FightMetric.
With the increase in his output, it is difficult to deny Dillashaw will have the edge on the feet. His movement also makes him a more difficult target to hit, and that will be a problem for the more straightforward striker that is Assuncao.
There is always the possibility Dillashaw could get clipped, but outside of that remote chance, the stand-up battle should be firmly in favor of the former champion.
Edge: Dillashaw
Grappling
As noted, Dillashaw has improved greatly since their first fight. The improvement does not stop with his striking. He is also a better grappler.
Even so, this would still be Dillashaw's category to take. In their prior meeting, Assuncao failed on all six of his takedown attempts while Dillashaw completed two of his four. There is tangible evidence to support the fact that Dillashaw is simply better.
It's not conjecture.
Regardless, do not take Assuncao's grappling ability lightly. He can still get this fight to the mat, but more importantly, it will be his ability to stifle Dillashaw against the fence. It won't be the most beautiful strategy, but Assuncao will need to stop Dillashaw's movement to find success.
Edge: Dillashaw
Submissions
Dillashaw went for more submissions than Assuncao in their 2013 fight, but that doesn't mean he's the better submission artist. It merely means he was more aggressive.
Ironically enough, both men's last submission victory came over Vaughn Lee. What does that mean for this fight? Nothing, but it's an interesting note.
The American may be more aggressive in seeking finishes, but from a technical standpoint, it is hard to deny Assuncao's acumen on the mat. And that is why he will get the nod in this section. Assuncao is more selective, but also more apt to get the tap. His patience will also protect him should he find himself defending attacks from Dillashaw.
Technique over aggression wins out here.
Edge: Assuncao
X-Factors
Assuncao's X-Factor: Inactivity
Assuncao is a fine fighter, but he's only fought twice since beating Dillashaw, and both fights were in 2014.
The division has had three champions in that time (Barao, Dillashaw, Cruz), and a new crop of bantamweights have emerged. We don't know what improvements, if any, he has made to his game in his time away from competition.
There is also the matter of cage rust. A slow start will almost guarantee a loss as Dillashaw runs circles around him.
Dillashaw's X-Factor: Tempo
Dillashaw's activity early in the fight will be crucial to how this fight plays out. His style favors high output, and low output opens the door for another contentious decision.
Assuncao is not going to match him throwing 100-plus significant strikes. It's not what he does. Dillashaw has a chance to influence the judges by simply being the more active fighter as he sets a high pace to the fight, and that pace will also work against Assuncao's cardio.
As this fight is only three rounds, Dillashaw should have no problem keeping his motor high throughout its duration.
Prediction
Dillashaw vs. Assuncao II will be a runaway.
There is no doubt Assuncao is a solid fighter, but Dillashaw is better—a lot better.
The fight will almost look as if Dillashaw is toying with Assuncao as the Brazilian struggles with the speed and movement of his opponent. The speed differential will allow Dillashaw to rack up points on the judges' scorecards. He will win each round, and could possibly net a 10-8 round if he is able to hurt Assuncao.
Getting the finish will be difficult. While Dillashaw will dominate the action, Assuncao is one of the toughest outs in the division. Dillashaw will play it smart and not put himself in harm's way. He'll work Assuncao over on the feet and complete several well-timed takedowns to secure the rounds.
The fight will be scored 30-27 or 30-26 across the board. This will never be in doubt.
Prediction: Dillashaw defeats Assuncao by unanimous decision
Johny Hendricks vs. Kelvin Gastelum Head-to-Toe Breakdown
By Nathan McCarter - Bleacher Report
Striking
Hendricks and Gastelum are primarily known for their grappling inside the cage, but both men have decent striking output. According to FightMetric, the official stat provider of the UFC, they are very close, with over three significant strikes landed per minute (Hendricks lands 3.59 to Gastelum's 3.25).
Hendricks' dynamite of a left hand is typically the strike to watch for, but much like Dan Henderson's H-Bomb, it is only a singular technique—effective, but predictable. That is precisely why Gastelum gets the nod standing.
The former The Ultimate Fighter winner has more variety to his strikes. He will attack the body and head with the complete arsenal. Gastelum also will enjoy a two-inch reach advantage over Hendricks.
If Gastelum gets sucked into a brawl, it could lead to him being splayed out on the canvas. Hendricks is well-versed in winging leather with top-tier welterweights. But if he fights smart and uses his entire skill set, then he should have a clear advantage while the fight stays upright.
Edge: Gastelum
Grappling
Gastelum is a talented grappler in his own right, but it would be foolish to pick him over Hendricks when it comes to this category.
Hendricks is a two-time NCAA champion, and he has translated his wrestling well inside the cage. It helped him reach the ultimate level in the UFC as a world champion. While it is easy to pick Hendricks as the better grappler, it is important to talk about Gastelum's skills as well.
Gastelum's wrestling is credible, and he has solid defensive skills, too. He won't be easily lifted off his feet. Moreover, in the clinch he will have the ability to score with strikes or nullify Hendricks' game. He can stifle the Oklahoma State alum and force the fight to be separated on the feet.
Hendricks won't find it easy to put him on his back, but he is quite clearly the better grappler in this contest.
Edge: Hendricks
Submissions
Hendricks is not known for his submissions, but he does have them in his toolkit. He spent years training with one of the best jiu-jitsu coaches around—Marc Laimon. Do not sleep on his abilities to put the fight away on the canvas.
Even still, Gastelum is the more diverse submission stylist in this matchup.
The difficulty for Gastelum will be getting in position to utilize his skills. As mentioned on the previous slide, Hendricks is the better grappler of the two. Gastelum will more than likely find himself trying to keep guard with Hendricks on top. Actively searching for submissions may be a great way to keep Hendricks defending instead of throwing punches and elbows.
Gastelum has more options available to him in this department, and that's enough to get him the edge.
Edge: Gastelum
X-Factor
The Weight Cut
Typically there is an X-factor chosen for each fighter, but in this match we will be watching the weight cut very closely. History tells us we have to keep an eye on their weigh-ins.
As Ariel Helwani of MMAFighting noted, Hendricks had to be taken to the emergency room due to a bad weight cut prior to UFC 192. The medical issue forced him off the card where he was to fight Tyron Woodley. Gastelum also missed weight in 2015 against Woodley, but he was still able to fight in a losing effort.
Cutting all the weight to get to 170 takes a toll on both men, and it can swing the pendulum drastically if done improperly.
Will Hendricks or Gastelum stand on the scale looking like Skeletor, or will they have done everything correctly? The effect of their cuts will play a large role in how this fight plays out. Keep an eye on how they look standing on the scale 24 hours before they are slated to go to work.
Prediction
Perhaps I'm a fool, but I'm not ready to write Hendricks off as a title contender just yet.
Life in the welterweight division hasn't been kind to him since Robbie Lawler took his belt by split decision, but his skills are undeniable. And this is a stylistic matchup that suits him well.
Gastelum is capable of winning this fight, but he isn't a dynamic, quick striker like Stephen Thompson. And he isn't Georges St-Pierre or Lawler. Gastelum is a fighter Hendricks can look stellar against by sticking to a simplistic game plan of wrestle, wrestle, wrestle.
That's what will happen at UFC 200.
Gastelum will be taken down no fewer than five occasions in their 15-minute fight. Hendricks will work tirelessly to keep putting him on the canvas. The judges will reward him with a decision nod. It won't be a barnburner, but it will be exactly what the Oklahoman needs to move back into contention at 170 pounds.
Prediction: Hendricks defeats Gastelum by unanimous decision
By Nathan McCarter - Bleacher Report
Striking
Hendricks and Gastelum are primarily known for their grappling inside the cage, but both men have decent striking output. According to FightMetric, the official stat provider of the UFC, they are very close, with over three significant strikes landed per minute (Hendricks lands 3.59 to Gastelum's 3.25).
Hendricks' dynamite of a left hand is typically the strike to watch for, but much like Dan Henderson's H-Bomb, it is only a singular technique—effective, but predictable. That is precisely why Gastelum gets the nod standing.
The former The Ultimate Fighter winner has more variety to his strikes. He will attack the body and head with the complete arsenal. Gastelum also will enjoy a two-inch reach advantage over Hendricks.
If Gastelum gets sucked into a brawl, it could lead to him being splayed out on the canvas. Hendricks is well-versed in winging leather with top-tier welterweights. But if he fights smart and uses his entire skill set, then he should have a clear advantage while the fight stays upright.
Edge: Gastelum
Grappling
Gastelum is a talented grappler in his own right, but it would be foolish to pick him over Hendricks when it comes to this category.
Hendricks is a two-time NCAA champion, and he has translated his wrestling well inside the cage. It helped him reach the ultimate level in the UFC as a world champion. While it is easy to pick Hendricks as the better grappler, it is important to talk about Gastelum's skills as well.
Gastelum's wrestling is credible, and he has solid defensive skills, too. He won't be easily lifted off his feet. Moreover, in the clinch he will have the ability to score with strikes or nullify Hendricks' game. He can stifle the Oklahoma State alum and force the fight to be separated on the feet.
Hendricks won't find it easy to put him on his back, but he is quite clearly the better grappler in this contest.
Edge: Hendricks
Submissions
Hendricks is not known for his submissions, but he does have them in his toolkit. He spent years training with one of the best jiu-jitsu coaches around—Marc Laimon. Do not sleep on his abilities to put the fight away on the canvas.
Even still, Gastelum is the more diverse submission stylist in this matchup.
The difficulty for Gastelum will be getting in position to utilize his skills. As mentioned on the previous slide, Hendricks is the better grappler of the two. Gastelum will more than likely find himself trying to keep guard with Hendricks on top. Actively searching for submissions may be a great way to keep Hendricks defending instead of throwing punches and elbows.
Gastelum has more options available to him in this department, and that's enough to get him the edge.
Edge: Gastelum
X-Factor
The Weight Cut
Typically there is an X-factor chosen for each fighter, but in this match we will be watching the weight cut very closely. History tells us we have to keep an eye on their weigh-ins.
As Ariel Helwani of MMAFighting noted, Hendricks had to be taken to the emergency room due to a bad weight cut prior to UFC 192. The medical issue forced him off the card where he was to fight Tyron Woodley. Gastelum also missed weight in 2015 against Woodley, but he was still able to fight in a losing effort.
Cutting all the weight to get to 170 takes a toll on both men, and it can swing the pendulum drastically if done improperly.
Will Hendricks or Gastelum stand on the scale looking like Skeletor, or will they have done everything correctly? The effect of their cuts will play a large role in how this fight plays out. Keep an eye on how they look standing on the scale 24 hours before they are slated to go to work.
Prediction
Perhaps I'm a fool, but I'm not ready to write Hendricks off as a title contender just yet.
Life in the welterweight division hasn't been kind to him since Robbie Lawler took his belt by split decision, but his skills are undeniable. And this is a stylistic matchup that suits him well.
Gastelum is capable of winning this fight, but he isn't a dynamic, quick striker like Stephen Thompson. And he isn't Georges St-Pierre or Lawler. Gastelum is a fighter Hendricks can look stellar against by sticking to a simplistic game plan of wrestle, wrestle, wrestle.
That's what will happen at UFC 200.
Gastelum will be taken down no fewer than five occasions in their 15-minute fight. Hendricks will work tirelessly to keep putting him on the canvas. The judges will reward him with a decision nod. It won't be a barnburner, but it will be exactly what the Oklahoman needs to move back into contention at 170 pounds.
Prediction: Hendricks defeats Gastelum by unanimous decision
Live Dogs for UFC 200
from MMA Odds Breaker
Heavyweight bout: Brock Lesnar (+140) vs Mark Hunt (-160)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Obviously, this is a classic “striker vs grappler” match-up, with Hunt being the striker and Lesnar being the grappler. What this comes down to is if Lesnar will be able to take Hunt down, and I think he will. I see Lesnar taking him down early and likely putting him away within the first stanza, either via T/KO or a strong-man kimura. I don’t think Hunt can stop the takedown, so the question is if he will be able to catch Lesnar with a strike while he’s coming in, and while it’s possible, I am betting against.
Gabe’s Call: Lesnar by Submission (Kimura, 1:01 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Lesnar (+140) 2.25u to win 3.15u
Welterweight bout: Johny Hendricks (-160) vs Kelvin Gastelum (+140)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Hendricks is coming off a first round TKO loss to Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Gastelum has dropped back to back decisions to Tyron Woodley and Neil Magney, so both fighters need a win here to remain relevant in the UFC’s 170-pound division. The former champ is currently without a gym and is just hiring coaches and training partners. That proved to be a fatal mistake against Thompson and I think it could be costly in this match-up against Gastelum, as well. While Gastelum is much less likely to finish the fight than Thompson was, he is a young fighter who is constantly improving, so that outcome would not be totally shocking, especially considering that Hendricks may already be on somewhat of a decline. To conclude, I think this is a close fight but personally think Gastelum should be slightly favored, as at his current underdog price of +140, I do favor him for a wager. I predict he defeats Hendricks on the scorecards and my guess is that after falling 0-2 at 170-pounds, Hendricks makes his next appearance in the UFC’s middleweight division.
Gabe’s Call: Gastelum by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Gastelum (+140) 1.75u to win 2.45u
from MMA Odds Breaker
Heavyweight bout: Brock Lesnar (+140) vs Mark Hunt (-160)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Obviously, this is a classic “striker vs grappler” match-up, with Hunt being the striker and Lesnar being the grappler. What this comes down to is if Lesnar will be able to take Hunt down, and I think he will. I see Lesnar taking him down early and likely putting him away within the first stanza, either via T/KO or a strong-man kimura. I don’t think Hunt can stop the takedown, so the question is if he will be able to catch Lesnar with a strike while he’s coming in, and while it’s possible, I am betting against.
Gabe’s Call: Lesnar by Submission (Kimura, 1:01 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Lesnar (+140) 2.25u to win 3.15u
Welterweight bout: Johny Hendricks (-160) vs Kelvin Gastelum (+140)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Hendricks is coming off a first round TKO loss to Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and Gastelum has dropped back to back decisions to Tyron Woodley and Neil Magney, so both fighters need a win here to remain relevant in the UFC’s 170-pound division. The former champ is currently without a gym and is just hiring coaches and training partners. That proved to be a fatal mistake against Thompson and I think it could be costly in this match-up against Gastelum, as well. While Gastelum is much less likely to finish the fight than Thompson was, he is a young fighter who is constantly improving, so that outcome would not be totally shocking, especially considering that Hendricks may already be on somewhat of a decline. To conclude, I think this is a close fight but personally think Gastelum should be slightly favored, as at his current underdog price of +140, I do favor him for a wager. I predict he defeats Hendricks on the scorecards and my guess is that after falling 0-2 at 170-pounds, Hendricks makes his next appearance in the UFC’s middleweight division.
Gabe’s Call: Gastelum by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Gastelum (+140) 1.75u to win 2.45u
UFC 200 Play: Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier
from MMA Odds Breaker
Jon Jones (22-1MMA, 16-1 UFC) is arguably the best pound for pound fighter in all of mixed martial arts today; he is a phenomenal athlete who excels in every facet of the sport. Coming from a wrestling background, Jones has excellent Greco-Roman and freestyle wrestling skills. He feints well and works great takedowns, including a solid double leg and a nice inside trip. He scores a lot of his takedowns from inside the clinch, from where he is also very effective with his limbs.
“Bones” is brutal with his ground and pound whenever finding himself in top position on the mat. He delivers vicious elbows, possessing some of the best elbow strikes in the sport, both on the mat and on the feet. Complementing his offensive grappling are his equally excellent defensive grappling skills, as he has fantastic takedown defense, having only ever been taken down by Alexander Gustafsson in their five round ‘Fight of the Year’ war back in 2013. However, he displayed that when taken down, he does a very good job of working his way back to his feet. Despite only being a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Jones has a very good submission game, both offensively and defensively.
The soon to be 29-year-old has evolved into an elite striker. He possesses good footwork and head movement, and he is great at using his reach to his advantage. Jones has solid Muay Thai skills and puts together some very effective combinations on the feet, implementing all of his limbs in his offensive striking attack. He is capable of getting the job done in both southpaw and orthodox stances. The Cortland, NY native has a nice left hook, a great jab and likes to go for the superman punch from time to time. He likes the uppercut, as well, and sometimes throws it with his elbow. “Bones” loves to put his knees and elbows to work, and is especially active with his elbows, including a beautiful spinning elbow he has perfected.
Jones is a complete striker, so it goes without saying that he has a phenomenal kicking game, as well, owning a variety of them in his arsenal, and having the ability to throw them from many angles. He has nice leg kicks, as well as solid head and body kicks. He is very good with his sidekicks, especially his front leg sidekick. “Bones” has a tremendous spinning back kick, as well, and while he has a variety in his arsenal, the kick he throws most is the oblique kick, he has become a signature of Jackson-Wink MMA trained fighters. Training out of the aforementioned Albuqurque, NM gym in high altitude, Jones is a very well-conditioned athlete who will be able to go all five rounds against the Olympian, if necessary. He is a very durable fighter with a ton of heart and tonight he will be out to cement his status as the number one pound for pound fighter in the world.
Daniel Cormier (17-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) is a former Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix winner who is very aggressive from start to finish in his fights. He likes to dictate cage control from the opening bell and keeps constant pressure on his opponents. He is an NCAA Division I All American wrestler who competed for the United States in the Olympics and is arguably the best wrestler in all of mixed martial arts.
Cormier is great at closing the distance on his opponents and scoring takedowns. He is powerful with them, especially at 205-pounds, and he is powerful from top position on the mat, as well, displaying heavy ground and pound. On the canvas, he does a phenomenal job of advancing positions and has a solid submission game, owning a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The 37-year old moves well on his feet, does a good job of feinting and setting up his takedowns. He has an excellent single leg, a solid double leg and a great body-lock takedown, which he does a good job of securing following a combination. To compliment his offensive wrestling, he has tremendous defensive grappling skills, as well, having strong hips and incredible takedown defense.
“DC” continues to improve as a striker from fight to fight. He has very fast, heavy hands and packs a lot of power in his punches, not to mention he has the technique and precise accuracy to go with it, which makes him a very dangerous threat, especially at 205-pounds. He is very strong in the clinch, whether it be in the center of the Octagon or up against the cage, where he prefers to keep his opponents and do damage with his fists, knees and elbows. The Louisiana native puts together some great combinations on the feet, including some quick 1-2’s, such as a jab-overhand right, which is a combination of two punches he is often quite effective with. He also has a nice left hook and a solid uppercut, which he sometimes leads with.
There’s no doubting that Cormier is a threat with his hands, but he has developed a solid kicking game, as well. He has some good leg kicks and nice high kicks, too, going both to the head and body with them. While he is effective with his kicks, it is worth noting that Cormier sometimes makes the error of telegraphing them. He is not afraid to let loose inside the cage and attempt “spinning shit” maneuvers on his opponent; even at 205-pounds and with his body-frame, he is one of the fastest competitors in the division. The 37-year-old has outstanding cardio and I believe he will be able to go hard all five rounds of action, should this fight hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision.
Gabe’s Call: Cormier by Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, I think Cormier puts Jones on his back and keeps him there for 25-minutes.
Gabe’s Recommended Plays: 1) Jones/Cormier Over 4.5 rounds (-150) 6u to win 4u and 2) Cormier (+260) 2.5u to win 6.5u
from MMA Odds Breaker
Jon Jones (22-1MMA, 16-1 UFC) is arguably the best pound for pound fighter in all of mixed martial arts today; he is a phenomenal athlete who excels in every facet of the sport. Coming from a wrestling background, Jones has excellent Greco-Roman and freestyle wrestling skills. He feints well and works great takedowns, including a solid double leg and a nice inside trip. He scores a lot of his takedowns from inside the clinch, from where he is also very effective with his limbs.
“Bones” is brutal with his ground and pound whenever finding himself in top position on the mat. He delivers vicious elbows, possessing some of the best elbow strikes in the sport, both on the mat and on the feet. Complementing his offensive grappling are his equally excellent defensive grappling skills, as he has fantastic takedown defense, having only ever been taken down by Alexander Gustafsson in their five round ‘Fight of the Year’ war back in 2013. However, he displayed that when taken down, he does a very good job of working his way back to his feet. Despite only being a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Jones has a very good submission game, both offensively and defensively.
The soon to be 29-year-old has evolved into an elite striker. He possesses good footwork and head movement, and he is great at using his reach to his advantage. Jones has solid Muay Thai skills and puts together some very effective combinations on the feet, implementing all of his limbs in his offensive striking attack. He is capable of getting the job done in both southpaw and orthodox stances. The Cortland, NY native has a nice left hook, a great jab and likes to go for the superman punch from time to time. He likes the uppercut, as well, and sometimes throws it with his elbow. “Bones” loves to put his knees and elbows to work, and is especially active with his elbows, including a beautiful spinning elbow he has perfected.
Jones is a complete striker, so it goes without saying that he has a phenomenal kicking game, as well, owning a variety of them in his arsenal, and having the ability to throw them from many angles. He has nice leg kicks, as well as solid head and body kicks. He is very good with his sidekicks, especially his front leg sidekick. “Bones” has a tremendous spinning back kick, as well, and while he has a variety in his arsenal, the kick he throws most is the oblique kick, he has become a signature of Jackson-Wink MMA trained fighters. Training out of the aforementioned Albuqurque, NM gym in high altitude, Jones is a very well-conditioned athlete who will be able to go all five rounds against the Olympian, if necessary. He is a very durable fighter with a ton of heart and tonight he will be out to cement his status as the number one pound for pound fighter in the world.
Daniel Cormier (17-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) is a former Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix winner who is very aggressive from start to finish in his fights. He likes to dictate cage control from the opening bell and keeps constant pressure on his opponents. He is an NCAA Division I All American wrestler who competed for the United States in the Olympics and is arguably the best wrestler in all of mixed martial arts.
Cormier is great at closing the distance on his opponents and scoring takedowns. He is powerful with them, especially at 205-pounds, and he is powerful from top position on the mat, as well, displaying heavy ground and pound. On the canvas, he does a phenomenal job of advancing positions and has a solid submission game, owning a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The 37-year old moves well on his feet, does a good job of feinting and setting up his takedowns. He has an excellent single leg, a solid double leg and a great body-lock takedown, which he does a good job of securing following a combination. To compliment his offensive wrestling, he has tremendous defensive grappling skills, as well, having strong hips and incredible takedown defense.
“DC” continues to improve as a striker from fight to fight. He has very fast, heavy hands and packs a lot of power in his punches, not to mention he has the technique and precise accuracy to go with it, which makes him a very dangerous threat, especially at 205-pounds. He is very strong in the clinch, whether it be in the center of the Octagon or up against the cage, where he prefers to keep his opponents and do damage with his fists, knees and elbows. The Louisiana native puts together some great combinations on the feet, including some quick 1-2’s, such as a jab-overhand right, which is a combination of two punches he is often quite effective with. He also has a nice left hook and a solid uppercut, which he sometimes leads with.
There’s no doubting that Cormier is a threat with his hands, but he has developed a solid kicking game, as well. He has some good leg kicks and nice high kicks, too, going both to the head and body with them. While he is effective with his kicks, it is worth noting that Cormier sometimes makes the error of telegraphing them. He is not afraid to let loose inside the cage and attempt “spinning shit” maneuvers on his opponent; even at 205-pounds and with his body-frame, he is one of the fastest competitors in the division. The 37-year-old has outstanding cardio and I believe he will be able to go hard all five rounds of action, should this fight hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision.
Gabe’s Call: Cormier by Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, I think Cormier puts Jones on his back and keeps him there for 25-minutes.
Gabe’s Recommended Plays: 1) Jones/Cormier Over 4.5 rounds (-150) 6u to win 4u and 2) Cormier (+260) 2.5u to win 6.5u
Over/Under Totals for UFC 200
from MMA Odds Breaker
Bantamweight bout: TJ Dillashaw (-425) vs Raphael Assuncao (+340)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this is a closer fight than the betting odds indicate and personally see this as a “dog or pass” situation. I can in no way, shape or form fault anyone for taking Assuncao at +340, but personally, I am going to have to pass. If not for the extended layoff and possible ring rust, I would have likely taken a shot on him. That said, I am not keeping my wallet away from this 135-pound contest altogether, as I do see value in the Total of Under 2.5 rounds at +175. Their initial meeting reached the judges’ scorecards for a split decision that went Assuncao’s way, and this time around, I think both bantamweights will be fighting for the finish in an effort to make a statement and leave the judges out of it. Both fighters have previously been knocked out, so if they engage and indeed do fight for the finish, I think there’s a very good chance one of them succeeds and ends the fight with strikes; or possibly a submission, as both 135-pounders have excellent submissions in their arsenal.
Gabe’s Call: Dillashaw by T/KO (head-kick and punches, 3:15 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+175) 1u to win 1.75u
Lightweight bout: Sage Northcutt (-340) vs Enrique Marin (+280)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Northcutt heads back down to 155-pounds after suffering his first professional mixed martial arts career loss in his first appearance in the UFC’s welterweight division. The loss came against Bryan Barbarena, who had competed at lightweight himself prior to their contest. Northcutt lost that bout via controversial submission in the second round, and the reason it was controversial was because many believed that it was not possible for him to really be in much trouble in the position Barbarena had him in. Here “Super” Sage has a chance to get back in the win column and climb the ranks of the UFC’s 155-pound division. Marin is a game opponent and trains out of Kings MMA in Huntington Beach, CA under the tutelage of Master Rafael Cordeiro, but I think he is out-gunned in this contest. I think Northcutt should be a 3-to-1 betting favorite here, so I see no value in him at his current asking price of -340, and don’t recommend taking Marin at +280, either. I don’t think either lightweight is worth a wager at these odds, however I do like the Total of Under 1.5 rounds, as I do think the most likely outcome is Northcutt defeating Marin in the opening stanza, by either T/KO or submission. I think his speed and athleticism will ultimately be the difference, just as it was in his promotional debut against fellow Legacy FC veteran Francisco Trevino.
Gabe’s Call: Northcutt by T/KO (strikes, 0:41 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (+105) 2u to win 2.1u
from MMA Odds Breaker
Bantamweight bout: TJ Dillashaw (-425) vs Raphael Assuncao (+340)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this is a closer fight than the betting odds indicate and personally see this as a “dog or pass” situation. I can in no way, shape or form fault anyone for taking Assuncao at +340, but personally, I am going to have to pass. If not for the extended layoff and possible ring rust, I would have likely taken a shot on him. That said, I am not keeping my wallet away from this 135-pound contest altogether, as I do see value in the Total of Under 2.5 rounds at +175. Their initial meeting reached the judges’ scorecards for a split decision that went Assuncao’s way, and this time around, I think both bantamweights will be fighting for the finish in an effort to make a statement and leave the judges out of it. Both fighters have previously been knocked out, so if they engage and indeed do fight for the finish, I think there’s a very good chance one of them succeeds and ends the fight with strikes; or possibly a submission, as both 135-pounders have excellent submissions in their arsenal.
Gabe’s Call: Dillashaw by T/KO (head-kick and punches, 3:15 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+175) 1u to win 1.75u
Lightweight bout: Sage Northcutt (-340) vs Enrique Marin (+280)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Northcutt heads back down to 155-pounds after suffering his first professional mixed martial arts career loss in his first appearance in the UFC’s welterweight division. The loss came against Bryan Barbarena, who had competed at lightweight himself prior to their contest. Northcutt lost that bout via controversial submission in the second round, and the reason it was controversial was because many believed that it was not possible for him to really be in much trouble in the position Barbarena had him in. Here “Super” Sage has a chance to get back in the win column and climb the ranks of the UFC’s 155-pound division. Marin is a game opponent and trains out of Kings MMA in Huntington Beach, CA under the tutelage of Master Rafael Cordeiro, but I think he is out-gunned in this contest. I think Northcutt should be a 3-to-1 betting favorite here, so I see no value in him at his current asking price of -340, and don’t recommend taking Marin at +280, either. I don’t think either lightweight is worth a wager at these odds, however I do like the Total of Under 1.5 rounds, as I do think the most likely outcome is Northcutt defeating Marin in the opening stanza, by either T/KO or submission. I think his speed and athleticism will ultimately be the difference, just as it was in his promotional debut against fellow Legacy FC veteran Francisco Trevino.
Gabe’s Call: Northcutt by T/KO (strikes, 0:41 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (+105) 2u to win 2.1u
UFC 200 Predictions
from Lootmeister
Daniel Cormier, (+260), 17-1 (6 KOs, 5 Submissions) vs. Jon Jones, (-320), 22-1 (9 KOs, 6 Submissions)
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier defends the belt against the champion who was never beaten—Jon "Bones" Jones. With the suspension of Jones due to some issues away from the octagon, Cormier ascended to the throne with a title-winning triumph over Anthony "Rumble" Johnson. He has subsequently defended the belt against Alexander Gustafsson and has created some nice momentum while Jones has been dealing with personal issues. Can he get over the hump in his second crack at Jones?
With the unfortunate falling out of Conor McGregor, the UFC needed a marquee match to headline the massive UFC 200 card in Las Vegas. In April, Jones made his first octagon appearance in over a year with a 5-round unanimous decision over Ovince Saint Preux—a victory that earned Jones the interim light heavyweight belt. The win got Jones back into action, with his first positive development in quite some time.
In January 2015, Jones, 28, defeated Cormier, 36, with a unanimous 5-round decision that was scored 4-1 in rounds by all three judges. That doesn't really tell the whole story, as Cormier managed to push Jones pretty hard, before Jones was able to pull away a bit at the end. How close the fight was is open for debate, but there's no questioning that Jones had to dig deep and will need to be at his best to dissuade a version of Cormier who could be better than the first time around. Jones-Cormier II figures to a be a real humdinger.
It's fair to ask some pretty tough questions about Jones. On one hand, it's easy to understand how a kid who has the personality to become perhaps the best fighter in the history of the planet would be adventurous in his outside life. These are not saints, they're fighters. In his last fight, he tested positive for cocaine before the bout. Then came the car accident and some details that suggested he was "riding dirty." But how much do we really know? There are endless shades of gray in the scenario.
There have been some run-ins with the law since his accident. Jones clearly likes to push the envelope in his personal life. We hope he gets it together rather than go the Mike Tyson route, He at least hired a driver, which could help keep him out of trouble But we're in the business of picking winners, so the narrative takes on a less-nurturing light. He managed to defeat Cormier while not living a Spartan lifestyle. One would think redemption is foremost in his mind and that he could be conceivably better in this fight.
Jones reminds one of Tyson, an ultra-dominant champion who seemed destined to be the best ever. But self-destructiveness and a loss of the single-minded focus they used to get to the top narrows the gap between them and their contemporaries. That's how you have a guy like Buster Douglas beating the mighty Mike Tyson. In Jones' case, the slippery slope is worse, with any number of talented 205-pounders prepared to pounce in the event that Jones lets up. And one of those fighters is most assuredly Cormier. If the same Jones who beat Saint Preux turns up in the octagon for UFC 200, Cormier has a very good chance to win. Was the Saint Preux win a time for Jones to shake off rust or has he lost a bit of his edge?
There may be a tone of emptiness to Cormier's title reign. He knows Jones is the real champion and the fact that he lost to Jones makes his title claim ring that much hollower. But that doesn't take away from what he's been able to accomplish in Jones' absence. Anthony Johnson is a scary guy and Cormier's submission win over him stands out as a very meaningful triumph. And while he only beat Alexander Gustafsson by a split decision, Gustafsson was also very tough against Jones. Either way you cut it, he's beaten two top-flight light heavyweights while Jones has been on the sidelines.
The stakes were obviously high in their first fight. But this time, the antes have been raised. Cormier is looking to prove he's the real champion and not just some fill-in titleholder. Jones, meanwhile, is looking to right the ship. He likes being a superstar. And nothing that we've heard in the press for the past year-plus has been positive. Jones will be gunning hard to create a positive development in his life story after a rough patch of late.
It seems like those making a case for Cormier are pointing to things that have little to do with actual fighting. Cormier's hopes are more or less tied up in the fact that he may have improved slightly, while Jones' lifestyle and commitment provide the real ammo for potential Cormier backers. Not that none of those factors won't play a role, but in the octagon, it often comes down to skills and skills alone.
Even if Jones has not committed himself wholly to a righteous path, it's doubtful that he's so far gone that he has lost his edge as a fighter. At the end of the day, he's not just the number-one light heavyweight in the world, but the greatest of all-time. And Cormier, quite simply, is not. He's a fantastic fighter who deserves to have the tag "Champion" attached to his name. But the real champion is Jon Jones and he will prove that in the octagon on July 9.
Loot's Pick to Win the Match: I'm betting on Jon Jones at -320.
Jose Aldo, (-115), 25-2 (14 KOs, 2 Submissions) vs. Frankie Edgar, (-105), 20-4-1 (6 KOs, 4 Submissions)
Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar will battle it out for the Interim UFC Featherweight Title. With true champion Conor McGregor locked in a titanic struggle with Nate Diaz at 170 pounds, the two clear top challengers to his title will be meeting for the interim belt. Aldo, 29, lost the belt to McGregor in a shocking 13-second KO loss in December of last year, but before that, had registered 7 UFC title wins. To regain a semblance of his old title and to position himself for a rematch with McGregor, he must defeat one of the UFC's best in former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar.
These two met at UFC 156, with Aldo winning a unanimous decision in an entertaining bout that won Fight of the Night honors. It was a pretty close fight, with Aldo holding the upper hand at the end. It was Edgar's featherweight debut and he's likely more-acclimated to fighting at 145 pounds than he was in their first early-2013 bout.
It's not going to be easy to get behind Aldo after he got splattered by McGregor in 13 seconds. At 29, his best days appear to be behind him and fighters can often be dimished immediately after getting their lights turned out. And it's not just the McGregor loss, either. He's been through a tough and taxing career. Injuries led to what seemed like countless postponements and cancellations, with the McGregor loss being his only fight since 2014. At the same time, he only lost one fight and that was a 13-second KO—a decisive result, while also a potentially misleading one, as well. It's not like McGregor dominated him for an extended period. A fighter can get caught cold early in a fight and we've seen others bounce back from those types of losses before. Aldo just might not be the spent force some are assuming he is. The McGregor loss was his first loss since 2005.
Edgar, 34, really deserves a shot after five straight wins where he beat top guys like Charles Oliveira, BJ Penn, Cub Swanson, Urijah Faber, and Chad Mendes. And he looked really good in recent outings—rag-dolling Swanson and finishing the esteemed Mendes on punches viciously in his last bout in December. While we can't take results simply at face-value, Edgar looks close to as good as he's ever been, while Aldo does not.
Edgar is really a special fighter and will not go away. If anything, he seems to be getting better—more diverse and with greater variety to his attack and overall game. Aldo has beaten Edgar before. And his career can ill-afford another setback or the calls for retirement might start trumpeting. He is really in an urgent spot and is still a fighter who is one possibly fluky KO loss away from being one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. But I see this as being Edgar's time, as the indefatigable New Jersey warrior will grind his way to another victory. Loot's Prediction to Win the Fight:
I'm betting on Frankie Edgar at -105.
Cain Velasquez, (-300), 13-2 (11 KOs) vs. Travis Browne, (+220), 18-3-1 (14 KOs, 2 Submissions)
In what looks to be a high-impact heavyweight bout, former UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez will take on hard-hitting contender Travis Browne in a 3-round bout. Velasquez lost his belt to Fabricio Werdum in June of 2015 and has seen injuries threaten to derail his career. For him, it will be a victory if he can merely find a way to climb into the octagon for this bout. And when he does, he will facing one of the more dangerous contenders in the heavyweight division in the 6'7" Browne.
It's unfortunate that the career of one of the most talented and explosive big men in the history of the sport is on the respirator due to injuries. The very thing that makes Velasquez, 33, great threatens to end his career. He was scheduled to fight for the title in a rematch before the wheels came off again and now, he really needs to get through a training camp in one piece. He's just such an explosive athlete that his body can barely hold up. And it's a shame because he is really an athletic marvel for a man his size. Without injuries, there's no telling how far he would go in his career.
Now Velasquez is buried on a card forced to re-establish his dependability before he gets a well-deserved rematch for his title. He draws a tough out in Travis Browne—a prodigious striker who can use a big win to get back on the short list of the world's most-compelling heavyweights. He was a bit fortunate in his last bout when an eye poke led to a TKO stoppage of tough Matt Mitrione. Before that, he lost 2 of 3—with a decision loss to current champ Werdum and a KO loss to ex-champ Alexei Arlovski. A win here would return him to the status he held a few years ago.
Browne can strike suddenly and when he connects, he threatens to short-circuit the brain of any heavyweight on the planet. His kicks, elbows, and punches can do a lot of damage. I just have a hard time envisioning him repelling the Velasquez onslaught for an entire evening without ill affect. He has shown good takedown-defense, but will not be able to resist the sheer physicality of the former champ. I like Velasquez.
Loot's Bet to Win the Match: I'm betting on Cain Velasquez at -300
from Lootmeister
Daniel Cormier, (+260), 17-1 (6 KOs, 5 Submissions) vs. Jon Jones, (-320), 22-1 (9 KOs, 6 Submissions)
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier defends the belt against the champion who was never beaten—Jon "Bones" Jones. With the suspension of Jones due to some issues away from the octagon, Cormier ascended to the throne with a title-winning triumph over Anthony "Rumble" Johnson. He has subsequently defended the belt against Alexander Gustafsson and has created some nice momentum while Jones has been dealing with personal issues. Can he get over the hump in his second crack at Jones?
With the unfortunate falling out of Conor McGregor, the UFC needed a marquee match to headline the massive UFC 200 card in Las Vegas. In April, Jones made his first octagon appearance in over a year with a 5-round unanimous decision over Ovince Saint Preux—a victory that earned Jones the interim light heavyweight belt. The win got Jones back into action, with his first positive development in quite some time.
In January 2015, Jones, 28, defeated Cormier, 36, with a unanimous 5-round decision that was scored 4-1 in rounds by all three judges. That doesn't really tell the whole story, as Cormier managed to push Jones pretty hard, before Jones was able to pull away a bit at the end. How close the fight was is open for debate, but there's no questioning that Jones had to dig deep and will need to be at his best to dissuade a version of Cormier who could be better than the first time around. Jones-Cormier II figures to a be a real humdinger.
It's fair to ask some pretty tough questions about Jones. On one hand, it's easy to understand how a kid who has the personality to become perhaps the best fighter in the history of the planet would be adventurous in his outside life. These are not saints, they're fighters. In his last fight, he tested positive for cocaine before the bout. Then came the car accident and some details that suggested he was "riding dirty." But how much do we really know? There are endless shades of gray in the scenario.
There have been some run-ins with the law since his accident. Jones clearly likes to push the envelope in his personal life. We hope he gets it together rather than go the Mike Tyson route, He at least hired a driver, which could help keep him out of trouble But we're in the business of picking winners, so the narrative takes on a less-nurturing light. He managed to defeat Cormier while not living a Spartan lifestyle. One would think redemption is foremost in his mind and that he could be conceivably better in this fight.
Jones reminds one of Tyson, an ultra-dominant champion who seemed destined to be the best ever. But self-destructiveness and a loss of the single-minded focus they used to get to the top narrows the gap between them and their contemporaries. That's how you have a guy like Buster Douglas beating the mighty Mike Tyson. In Jones' case, the slippery slope is worse, with any number of talented 205-pounders prepared to pounce in the event that Jones lets up. And one of those fighters is most assuredly Cormier. If the same Jones who beat Saint Preux turns up in the octagon for UFC 200, Cormier has a very good chance to win. Was the Saint Preux win a time for Jones to shake off rust or has he lost a bit of his edge?
There may be a tone of emptiness to Cormier's title reign. He knows Jones is the real champion and the fact that he lost to Jones makes his title claim ring that much hollower. But that doesn't take away from what he's been able to accomplish in Jones' absence. Anthony Johnson is a scary guy and Cormier's submission win over him stands out as a very meaningful triumph. And while he only beat Alexander Gustafsson by a split decision, Gustafsson was also very tough against Jones. Either way you cut it, he's beaten two top-flight light heavyweights while Jones has been on the sidelines.
The stakes were obviously high in their first fight. But this time, the antes have been raised. Cormier is looking to prove he's the real champion and not just some fill-in titleholder. Jones, meanwhile, is looking to right the ship. He likes being a superstar. And nothing that we've heard in the press for the past year-plus has been positive. Jones will be gunning hard to create a positive development in his life story after a rough patch of late.
It seems like those making a case for Cormier are pointing to things that have little to do with actual fighting. Cormier's hopes are more or less tied up in the fact that he may have improved slightly, while Jones' lifestyle and commitment provide the real ammo for potential Cormier backers. Not that none of those factors won't play a role, but in the octagon, it often comes down to skills and skills alone.
Even if Jones has not committed himself wholly to a righteous path, it's doubtful that he's so far gone that he has lost his edge as a fighter. At the end of the day, he's not just the number-one light heavyweight in the world, but the greatest of all-time. And Cormier, quite simply, is not. He's a fantastic fighter who deserves to have the tag "Champion" attached to his name. But the real champion is Jon Jones and he will prove that in the octagon on July 9.
Loot's Pick to Win the Match: I'm betting on Jon Jones at -320.
Jose Aldo, (-115), 25-2 (14 KOs, 2 Submissions) vs. Frankie Edgar, (-105), 20-4-1 (6 KOs, 4 Submissions)
Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar will battle it out for the Interim UFC Featherweight Title. With true champion Conor McGregor locked in a titanic struggle with Nate Diaz at 170 pounds, the two clear top challengers to his title will be meeting for the interim belt. Aldo, 29, lost the belt to McGregor in a shocking 13-second KO loss in December of last year, but before that, had registered 7 UFC title wins. To regain a semblance of his old title and to position himself for a rematch with McGregor, he must defeat one of the UFC's best in former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar.
These two met at UFC 156, with Aldo winning a unanimous decision in an entertaining bout that won Fight of the Night honors. It was a pretty close fight, with Aldo holding the upper hand at the end. It was Edgar's featherweight debut and he's likely more-acclimated to fighting at 145 pounds than he was in their first early-2013 bout.
It's not going to be easy to get behind Aldo after he got splattered by McGregor in 13 seconds. At 29, his best days appear to be behind him and fighters can often be dimished immediately after getting their lights turned out. And it's not just the McGregor loss, either. He's been through a tough and taxing career. Injuries led to what seemed like countless postponements and cancellations, with the McGregor loss being his only fight since 2014. At the same time, he only lost one fight and that was a 13-second KO—a decisive result, while also a potentially misleading one, as well. It's not like McGregor dominated him for an extended period. A fighter can get caught cold early in a fight and we've seen others bounce back from those types of losses before. Aldo just might not be the spent force some are assuming he is. The McGregor loss was his first loss since 2005.
Edgar, 34, really deserves a shot after five straight wins where he beat top guys like Charles Oliveira, BJ Penn, Cub Swanson, Urijah Faber, and Chad Mendes. And he looked really good in recent outings—rag-dolling Swanson and finishing the esteemed Mendes on punches viciously in his last bout in December. While we can't take results simply at face-value, Edgar looks close to as good as he's ever been, while Aldo does not.
Edgar is really a special fighter and will not go away. If anything, he seems to be getting better—more diverse and with greater variety to his attack and overall game. Aldo has beaten Edgar before. And his career can ill-afford another setback or the calls for retirement might start trumpeting. He is really in an urgent spot and is still a fighter who is one possibly fluky KO loss away from being one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. But I see this as being Edgar's time, as the indefatigable New Jersey warrior will grind his way to another victory. Loot's Prediction to Win the Fight:
I'm betting on Frankie Edgar at -105.
Cain Velasquez, (-300), 13-2 (11 KOs) vs. Travis Browne, (+220), 18-3-1 (14 KOs, 2 Submissions)
In what looks to be a high-impact heavyweight bout, former UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez will take on hard-hitting contender Travis Browne in a 3-round bout. Velasquez lost his belt to Fabricio Werdum in June of 2015 and has seen injuries threaten to derail his career. For him, it will be a victory if he can merely find a way to climb into the octagon for this bout. And when he does, he will facing one of the more dangerous contenders in the heavyweight division in the 6'7" Browne.
It's unfortunate that the career of one of the most talented and explosive big men in the history of the sport is on the respirator due to injuries. The very thing that makes Velasquez, 33, great threatens to end his career. He was scheduled to fight for the title in a rematch before the wheels came off again and now, he really needs to get through a training camp in one piece. He's just such an explosive athlete that his body can barely hold up. And it's a shame because he is really an athletic marvel for a man his size. Without injuries, there's no telling how far he would go in his career.
Now Velasquez is buried on a card forced to re-establish his dependability before he gets a well-deserved rematch for his title. He draws a tough out in Travis Browne—a prodigious striker who can use a big win to get back on the short list of the world's most-compelling heavyweights. He was a bit fortunate in his last bout when an eye poke led to a TKO stoppage of tough Matt Mitrione. Before that, he lost 2 of 3—with a decision loss to current champ Werdum and a KO loss to ex-champ Alexei Arlovski. A win here would return him to the status he held a few years ago.
Browne can strike suddenly and when he connects, he threatens to short-circuit the brain of any heavyweight on the planet. His kicks, elbows, and punches can do a lot of damage. I just have a hard time envisioning him repelling the Velasquez onslaught for an entire evening without ill affect. He has shown good takedown-defense, but will not be able to resist the sheer physicality of the former champ. I like Velasquez.
Loot's Bet to Win the Match: I'm betting on Cain Velasquez at -300
UFC 200 preliminary card pre-fight facts:
Zingano returns to competition for the first time since her 14-second submission loss to Ronda Rousey at UFC 184 in February 2015.
Zingano has fought just once per year from 2011-2015.
Zingano has earned eight of her nine career victories by stoppage.
Zingano’s two knockout victories in UFC women’s bantamweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Rousey (three) and Amanda Nunes (three).
Zingano is one of three fighters in UFC history to earn back-to-back knockout victories in the third round. Yoel Romero and Yushin Okami also accomplished the feat.
Zingano vs. Rousey at UFC 184 in the only championship fight in UFC history to feature zero strikes landed by either competitor.
Pena’s three-fight UFC winning streak in women’s bantamweight competition is tied with Nunes for the second longest active streak in the division behind champion Miesha Tate (five).
Pena has earned six of her seven career victories by stoppage.
Pena’s two knockout victories in UFC women’s bantamweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Rousey (three) and Nunes (three).
Pena is one of 11 fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout victory at the 4:59 mark of Round 1. She accomplished the feat against Jessica Rakoczy at The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale.
Johny Hendricks (17-4 MMA, 12-4 UFC) enters the event following the first knockout loss of his career against Stephen Thompson at UFC Fight Night 82 in February.
Hendricks has alternated wins and losses over his past six UFC appearances.
Hendricks is one of five fighters in UFC history to record three or more knockout victories in less than one minute each.
Hendricks and Robbie Lawler combined for 308 significant strikes landed at UFC 171, the second most ever for a UFC title fight behind Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Valerie Letourneau at UFC 193 (323 combined significant strikes).
Hendricks and Lawler attempted 728 significant strikes at UFC 171, the third most ever in single UFC bout. Cole Miller and Nam Phan hold the record for 788 significant strikes attempted at UFC on FOX 4.
Hendricks’ 54 takedowns landed in UFC welterweight competition are second most in divisional history behind Georges St-Pierre (87).
Hendricks has been awarded six fight-night bonuses for UFC welterweight bouts, tied for third most in divisional history behind Chris Lytle (10) and Carlos Condit (seven).
Kelvin Gastelum (11-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC) has completed at least one takedown against every opponent he has attempted to take to the ground in UFC competition.
Gastelum defends 69.4 percent of opponent significant strike attempts in UFC welterweight competition, the highest rate among active fighters in the weight class and third highest in divisional history.
Gastelum has suffered both of his career losses by split decision.
T.J. Dillashaw (12-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC) competes in his 12th UFC bantamweight bout, tied for the second most appearances in divisional history behind Urijah Faber (13).
Dillashaw’s eight victories in UFC bantamweight competition are tied for the second most in divisional history behind Faber (nine).
Dillashaw’s six stoppage victories in UFC bantamweight competition are tied with Faber for most in divisional history.
Dillashaw’s five knockout victories in UFC bantamweight competition are the most in divisional history.
Dillashaw’s five knockdowns landed in UFC bantamweight competition are tied with Michael McDonald and Francisco Rivera for most in divisional history.
Dillashaw is the only fighter in UFC history to land 100 or more significant strikes in five consecutive fights. He’s landed 634 significant strikes over his past five contests.
Dillashaw scored the latest head-kick knockout finish in UFC history when he stopped Joe Soto at the 2:20 mark of Round 5 at UFC 177.
Dillashaw is one of two fighters in UFC history to earn two fifth-round stoppage victories. He accomplished the feat against Soto at UFC 177 and Renan Barao at UFC 173. Flyweight champ Demetrious Johnson also accomplished the feat.
Dillashaw lands 5.56 strikes landed per minute in UFC bantamweight competition, the second highest rate in divisional history behind Thomas Almeida (6.52).
Dillashaw’s 11 submission attempts in UFC bantamweight competition are second most in divisional history behind Alex Caceres (12).
Dillashaw is one of six contestants from “The Ultimate Fighter” to win a UFC championship.
Dillashaw is the only UFC champion to come from “TUF” to successfully defend his belt.
Dillashaw’s six fight-night bonuses for UFC bantamweight bouts are the most in divisional history.
Raphael Assuncao (23-4 MMA, 7-1 UFC) returns to competition for the first time since Oct. 4, 2014 – the 644-day layoff the longest of his more than 12-year career.
Assuncao is 7-0 since he dropped to the UFC bantamweight division in August. 2011.
Assuncao seven-fight UFC winning streak in bantamweight competition is the longest active streak in the division.
Assuncao’s seven-fight UFC winning streak is tied for the fourth longest active streak in the company behind Jon Jones (13), Demetrious Johnson (10) and Max Holloway (nine).
Assuncao defends 70.8 of opponent significant strike attempts in UFC bantamweight competition, the third highest rate in divisional history behind Dominick Cruz (72.1 percent) and Vaughan Lee (71.5 percent).
Assuncao has earned five of his seven UFC victories by decision.
Sage Northcutt (7-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC), 20, is the youngest of the 24 fighters scheduled to compete at the event.
Northcutt, at 19, became the youngest fighter in UFC history to earn a victory when he defeated Francisco Trevino at UFC 192.
Northcutt has earned all seven of his career victories by stoppage.
Diego Sanchez (26-8 MMA, 15-8 UFC) is the only active UFC fighter who was a cast member on “The Ultimate Fighter 1.”
Sanchez’s total fight time of 5:07:57 over his 23-fight UFC career is second most of any non-champion in company.
Sanchez is one of two fighters in UFC history to compete in four different weight classes. Kenny Florian also accomplished the feat.
Sanchez has earned his past seven UFC victories by decision. He hasn’t finished an opponent since Luigi Fioravanti at The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale in June 2008.
Sanchez has fought to a decision 17 times in his UFC career, the most in company history.
Sanchez has absorbed 1,055 total head strikes in his UFC career, the most among active fighters on the roster.
Sanchez has earned six “Fight of the Night” bonuses in UFC competition, tied for second most in company history behind Frankie Edgar (seven).
Joe Lauzon (24-10 MMA, 11-7 UFC) competes in his 21st UFC lightweight bout, the third most appearances in divisional history.
Lauzon earned 24 of his 25 career victories by stoppage. He’s recorded 18 of those finishes by submission.
Lauzon’s 11 stoppage victories in UFC lightweight competition are the most in divisional history.
Lauzon’s seven submission victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied with Nate Diaz for the most in divisional history.
Lauzon’s 26 submission attempts in UFC competition are third most in company history behind Jim Miller (35) and Chris Lytle (31).
Lauzon has been awarded 13 fight-night bonuses during his UFC career, tied for second most in company history behind Nate Diaz (14). UFC/WEC vet Cerrone holds the all-time record for Zuffa-owned promotions with 17 total bonuses.
Gegard Mousasi (38-6-2 MMA, 5-3 UFC) competes outside of the main or co-main event for the first time in his nine UFC appearances.
Mousasi has earned 31 of his 38 victories by stoppage. Of those finishes, 29 occurred in Round 1.
Mousasi absorbs just 1.39 significant strikes per minute in UFC middleweight competition, the best rate among active fighters in the weight class.
Mousasi has landed 19 of his 29 takedown attempts (66 percent) over his past 20 bouts.
Thiago “Marreta” Santos’ (13-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC) four-fight UFC winning streak in middleweight competition is tied for the second longest active streak in the division behind Yoel Romero (seven).
Santos has earned four of his five UFC victories by first-round knockout.
Santos is one of four fighters in history to earn two sub-minute knockout victories in UFC middleweight competition.
Santos lands 1.99 knockouts per 15 minutes in UFC competition, the fourth highest rate in company history.
Jim Miller (25-8 MMA, 14-7 UFC) competes in his 23rd UFC lightweight bout, the second most appearances in divisional history behind Gleison Tibau (26).
Miller is 1-4 in his past five UFC appearances.
Miller’s 14 victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Tibau (16) and Cerrone (15).
Miller’s eight stoppage victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for fourth most in divisional history behind Lauzon (11), B.J. Penn (nine) and Cerrone (nine).
Miller’s six submission victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Lauzon (seven) and Diaz (seven).
Miller’s 35 submission attempts in UFC competition are the most in company history.
Takanori Gomi (35-11 MMA, 4-6 UFC) is 1-3 in his past four UFC appearances.
Gomi enters the event with back-to-back knockout losses after going his entire career without a stoppage defeat due to strikes.
Gomi is one of 11 fighters in UFC/WEC/PRIDE/Strikeforce combined history to earn a winning streak of 10-plus fights.
Gomi recorded the fastest knockout in the history of the now-defunct PRIDE organization when he stopped Ralph Gracie in just six seconds at PRIDE Bushido 3.
Zingano returns to competition for the first time since her 14-second submission loss to Ronda Rousey at UFC 184 in February 2015.
Zingano has fought just once per year from 2011-2015.
Zingano has earned eight of her nine career victories by stoppage.
Zingano’s two knockout victories in UFC women’s bantamweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Rousey (three) and Amanda Nunes (three).
Zingano is one of three fighters in UFC history to earn back-to-back knockout victories in the third round. Yoel Romero and Yushin Okami also accomplished the feat.
Zingano vs. Rousey at UFC 184 in the only championship fight in UFC history to feature zero strikes landed by either competitor.
Pena’s three-fight UFC winning streak in women’s bantamweight competition is tied with Nunes for the second longest active streak in the division behind champion Miesha Tate (five).
Pena has earned six of her seven career victories by stoppage.
Pena’s two knockout victories in UFC women’s bantamweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Rousey (three) and Nunes (three).
Pena is one of 11 fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout victory at the 4:59 mark of Round 1. She accomplished the feat against Jessica Rakoczy at The Ultimate Fighter 18 Finale.
Johny Hendricks (17-4 MMA, 12-4 UFC) enters the event following the first knockout loss of his career against Stephen Thompson at UFC Fight Night 82 in February.
Hendricks has alternated wins and losses over his past six UFC appearances.
Hendricks is one of five fighters in UFC history to record three or more knockout victories in less than one minute each.
Hendricks and Robbie Lawler combined for 308 significant strikes landed at UFC 171, the second most ever for a UFC title fight behind Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Valerie Letourneau at UFC 193 (323 combined significant strikes).
Hendricks and Lawler attempted 728 significant strikes at UFC 171, the third most ever in single UFC bout. Cole Miller and Nam Phan hold the record for 788 significant strikes attempted at UFC on FOX 4.
Hendricks’ 54 takedowns landed in UFC welterweight competition are second most in divisional history behind Georges St-Pierre (87).
Hendricks has been awarded six fight-night bonuses for UFC welterweight bouts, tied for third most in divisional history behind Chris Lytle (10) and Carlos Condit (seven).
Kelvin Gastelum (11-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC) has completed at least one takedown against every opponent he has attempted to take to the ground in UFC competition.
Gastelum defends 69.4 percent of opponent significant strike attempts in UFC welterweight competition, the highest rate among active fighters in the weight class and third highest in divisional history.
Gastelum has suffered both of his career losses by split decision.
T.J. Dillashaw (12-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC) competes in his 12th UFC bantamweight bout, tied for the second most appearances in divisional history behind Urijah Faber (13).
Dillashaw’s eight victories in UFC bantamweight competition are tied for the second most in divisional history behind Faber (nine).
Dillashaw’s six stoppage victories in UFC bantamweight competition are tied with Faber for most in divisional history.
Dillashaw’s five knockout victories in UFC bantamweight competition are the most in divisional history.
Dillashaw’s five knockdowns landed in UFC bantamweight competition are tied with Michael McDonald and Francisco Rivera for most in divisional history.
Dillashaw is the only fighter in UFC history to land 100 or more significant strikes in five consecutive fights. He’s landed 634 significant strikes over his past five contests.
Dillashaw scored the latest head-kick knockout finish in UFC history when he stopped Joe Soto at the 2:20 mark of Round 5 at UFC 177.
Dillashaw is one of two fighters in UFC history to earn two fifth-round stoppage victories. He accomplished the feat against Soto at UFC 177 and Renan Barao at UFC 173. Flyweight champ Demetrious Johnson also accomplished the feat.
Dillashaw lands 5.56 strikes landed per minute in UFC bantamweight competition, the second highest rate in divisional history behind Thomas Almeida (6.52).
Dillashaw’s 11 submission attempts in UFC bantamweight competition are second most in divisional history behind Alex Caceres (12).
Dillashaw is one of six contestants from “The Ultimate Fighter” to win a UFC championship.
Dillashaw is the only UFC champion to come from “TUF” to successfully defend his belt.
Dillashaw’s six fight-night bonuses for UFC bantamweight bouts are the most in divisional history.
Raphael Assuncao (23-4 MMA, 7-1 UFC) returns to competition for the first time since Oct. 4, 2014 – the 644-day layoff the longest of his more than 12-year career.
Assuncao is 7-0 since he dropped to the UFC bantamweight division in August. 2011.
Assuncao seven-fight UFC winning streak in bantamweight competition is the longest active streak in the division.
Assuncao’s seven-fight UFC winning streak is tied for the fourth longest active streak in the company behind Jon Jones (13), Demetrious Johnson (10) and Max Holloway (nine).
Assuncao defends 70.8 of opponent significant strike attempts in UFC bantamweight competition, the third highest rate in divisional history behind Dominick Cruz (72.1 percent) and Vaughan Lee (71.5 percent).
Assuncao has earned five of his seven UFC victories by decision.
Sage Northcutt (7-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC), 20, is the youngest of the 24 fighters scheduled to compete at the event.
Northcutt, at 19, became the youngest fighter in UFC history to earn a victory when he defeated Francisco Trevino at UFC 192.
Northcutt has earned all seven of his career victories by stoppage.
Diego Sanchez (26-8 MMA, 15-8 UFC) is the only active UFC fighter who was a cast member on “The Ultimate Fighter 1.”
Sanchez’s total fight time of 5:07:57 over his 23-fight UFC career is second most of any non-champion in company.
Sanchez is one of two fighters in UFC history to compete in four different weight classes. Kenny Florian also accomplished the feat.
Sanchez has earned his past seven UFC victories by decision. He hasn’t finished an opponent since Luigi Fioravanti at The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale in June 2008.
Sanchez has fought to a decision 17 times in his UFC career, the most in company history.
Sanchez has absorbed 1,055 total head strikes in his UFC career, the most among active fighters on the roster.
Sanchez has earned six “Fight of the Night” bonuses in UFC competition, tied for second most in company history behind Frankie Edgar (seven).
Joe Lauzon (24-10 MMA, 11-7 UFC) competes in his 21st UFC lightweight bout, the third most appearances in divisional history.
Lauzon earned 24 of his 25 career victories by stoppage. He’s recorded 18 of those finishes by submission.
Lauzon’s 11 stoppage victories in UFC lightweight competition are the most in divisional history.
Lauzon’s seven submission victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied with Nate Diaz for the most in divisional history.
Lauzon’s 26 submission attempts in UFC competition are third most in company history behind Jim Miller (35) and Chris Lytle (31).
Lauzon has been awarded 13 fight-night bonuses during his UFC career, tied for second most in company history behind Nate Diaz (14). UFC/WEC vet Cerrone holds the all-time record for Zuffa-owned promotions with 17 total bonuses.
Gegard Mousasi (38-6-2 MMA, 5-3 UFC) competes outside of the main or co-main event for the first time in his nine UFC appearances.
Mousasi has earned 31 of his 38 victories by stoppage. Of those finishes, 29 occurred in Round 1.
Mousasi absorbs just 1.39 significant strikes per minute in UFC middleweight competition, the best rate among active fighters in the weight class.
Mousasi has landed 19 of his 29 takedown attempts (66 percent) over his past 20 bouts.
Thiago “Marreta” Santos’ (13-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC) four-fight UFC winning streak in middleweight competition is tied for the second longest active streak in the division behind Yoel Romero (seven).
Santos has earned four of his five UFC victories by first-round knockout.
Santos is one of four fighters in history to earn two sub-minute knockout victories in UFC middleweight competition.
Santos lands 1.99 knockouts per 15 minutes in UFC competition, the fourth highest rate in company history.
Jim Miller (25-8 MMA, 14-7 UFC) competes in his 23rd UFC lightweight bout, the second most appearances in divisional history behind Gleison Tibau (26).
Miller is 1-4 in his past five UFC appearances.
Miller’s 14 victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Tibau (16) and Cerrone (15).
Miller’s eight stoppage victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for fourth most in divisional history behind Lauzon (11), B.J. Penn (nine) and Cerrone (nine).
Miller’s six submission victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Lauzon (seven) and Diaz (seven).
Miller’s 35 submission attempts in UFC competition are the most in company history.
Takanori Gomi (35-11 MMA, 4-6 UFC) is 1-3 in his past four UFC appearances.
Gomi enters the event with back-to-back knockout losses after going his entire career without a stoppage defeat due to strikes.
Gomi is one of 11 fighters in UFC/WEC/PRIDE/Strikeforce combined history to earn a winning streak of 10-plus fights.
Gomi recorded the fastest knockout in the history of the now-defunct PRIDE organization when he stopped Ralph Gracie in just six seconds at PRIDE Bushido 3.
UFC 200 Predictions
from Tim Keeney - Sports Contributor at Heavy.com
Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier
There was plenty of talk about how Jones didn't look like himself against Ovince Saint Preux in his return from a 16-month layoff, but here's the thing. He still won all five rounds, he still landed nearly double the amount of significant strikes and he still tallied three takedowns to zero. Talk of "Bones" not being the same fighter is overstated, and when he's on top of his game, he simply has more tools than Cormier. We saw that in the first fight, when Jones took down DC three times and defended a bunch of the former Olympian's take-down attempts, and we'll see it again Saturday night.
Prediction: Jones via unanimous decision
Brock Lesnar vs. Mark Hunt
The odds favor Mark Hunt, and it's not really difficult to see why. Lesnar hasn't fought inside the Octagon since 2011, while Hunt (6 knockouts in seven UFC victories) has the power to take down anyone with one touch. But it's no fun picking all favorites. Hunt was taken down a whopping six times in his last loss against Stipe Miocic, and Lesnar, who averages 3.87 takedowns per fight, should be able to get the fight to the ground where he'll go to work.
Prediction: Lesnar via 2nd-round TKO
Miesha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes
Nunes has looked impressive during her current three-fight winning streak, earning a TKO, a submission (Performance of the Night) and a unanimous-decision victory. However, in that last victory, which came against Valentina Shevchenko in March, she showed signs of running out of gas in the third round, as she landed just three significant strikes to Shevchenko's 17. At the same event, Tate proved the opposite, as she dug deep and scored a late fifth-round submission of Holly Holm to win the title. Ultimately, the longer this fight goes, the more it favors Tate.
Prediction: Tate via 4th-round submission
Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar
This is the toughest fight on the main card to call. Everyone is quick to write off Aldo after his embarrassing 13-second defeat at the hands of Conor McGregor, and while it's fair to wonder how he'll bounce back from that, this is the same guy who successfully defended the WEC and UFC featherweight title nine times, a run that includes a unanimous decision victory over Edgar in 2013. That side, Aldo has declined since that fight, while "The Answer" has looked tremendous ever since, reeling off five straight wins with two Performance of the Night bonuses. This could go either way, but I'll go with the guy who has looked much more impressive as of late.
Prediction: Edgar via unanimous decision
Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne
Velasquez didn't look great in his loss to Fabricio Werdum last June, but he's had over a year to recover from that and get back in shape. He has multiple ways he can beat Browne, who is just 2-2 in his last four fights, but he shouldn't have much trouble getting this fight to the ground where can dominate.
Prediction: Velasquez via 2nd-round TKO
from Tim Keeney - Sports Contributor at Heavy.com
Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier
There was plenty of talk about how Jones didn't look like himself against Ovince Saint Preux in his return from a 16-month layoff, but here's the thing. He still won all five rounds, he still landed nearly double the amount of significant strikes and he still tallied three takedowns to zero. Talk of "Bones" not being the same fighter is overstated, and when he's on top of his game, he simply has more tools than Cormier. We saw that in the first fight, when Jones took down DC three times and defended a bunch of the former Olympian's take-down attempts, and we'll see it again Saturday night.
Prediction: Jones via unanimous decision
Brock Lesnar vs. Mark Hunt
The odds favor Mark Hunt, and it's not really difficult to see why. Lesnar hasn't fought inside the Octagon since 2011, while Hunt (6 knockouts in seven UFC victories) has the power to take down anyone with one touch. But it's no fun picking all favorites. Hunt was taken down a whopping six times in his last loss against Stipe Miocic, and Lesnar, who averages 3.87 takedowns per fight, should be able to get the fight to the ground where he'll go to work.
Prediction: Lesnar via 2nd-round TKO
Miesha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes
Nunes has looked impressive during her current three-fight winning streak, earning a TKO, a submission (Performance of the Night) and a unanimous-decision victory. However, in that last victory, which came against Valentina Shevchenko in March, she showed signs of running out of gas in the third round, as she landed just three significant strikes to Shevchenko's 17. At the same event, Tate proved the opposite, as she dug deep and scored a late fifth-round submission of Holly Holm to win the title. Ultimately, the longer this fight goes, the more it favors Tate.
Prediction: Tate via 4th-round submission
Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar
This is the toughest fight on the main card to call. Everyone is quick to write off Aldo after his embarrassing 13-second defeat at the hands of Conor McGregor, and while it's fair to wonder how he'll bounce back from that, this is the same guy who successfully defended the WEC and UFC featherweight title nine times, a run that includes a unanimous decision victory over Edgar in 2013. That side, Aldo has declined since that fight, while "The Answer" has looked tremendous ever since, reeling off five straight wins with two Performance of the Night bonuses. This could go either way, but I'll go with the guy who has looked much more impressive as of late.
Prediction: Edgar via unanimous decision
Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne
Velasquez didn't look great in his loss to Fabricio Werdum last June, but he's had over a year to recover from that and get back in shape. He has multiple ways he can beat Browne, who is just 2-2 in his last four fights, but he shouldn't have much trouble getting this fight to the ground where can dominate.
Prediction: Velasquez via 2nd-round TKO
UFC 200 Predictions
from IBTimes
Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Daniel Cormier (+235) vs. Jon Jones (-305)
Maybe if this fight occurred in April like it was originally scheduled to, Cormier would’ve retained the belt. But Jones likely shook off any ring rust he had in his fight against Ovince Saint Preux, and he has the edge going into the main event. Jones is the best fighter in the world, and he should take care of Cormier, just like he did a year and a half ago.
Prediction: Jones by unanimous decision
Heavyweight Fight: Brock Lesnar (+140) vs. Mark Hunt (-170)
No matter how this fight ends, it should be over within the first few minutes. If Hunt gets a clean shot on Lesnar, the former champion’s return from WWE could be a short one. But Lesnar can end this one early by getting his opponent on the ground, where Lesnar has a major advantage.
Prediction: Lesnar by knockout
Women's Bantamweight Title Fight: Miesha Tate (-250) vs. Amanda Nunes (+195)
There’s likely to be at least one upset on the main card of UFC 200, and this fight might be it. The women’s bantamweight division has been unpredictable, with Rousey losing to Holly Holm, who promptly dropped the title to Tate in March. Tate has said she doesn’t think Nunes has what it takes to defeat her, and it’s that kind of thinking that could put the champ on the wrong side of the night’s biggest upset.
Prediction: Nunes by knockout
Interim Featherweight Title Fight: José Aldo (-105) vs. Frankie Edgar (-125)
Aldo was given the decision over Edgar when they fought back in 2013, and rightfully so, but it was a close fight that could have a different outcome on Saturday. Despite Aldo’s assertions, Edgar has gotten even better over the past three years, defeating some of the best competition the 145-pound division has to offer. Aldo has what it takes to outlast Edgar in another five-round fight, but Edgar might not give his opponent the opportunity to make it past the first few rounds.
Prediction: Edgar by knockout
Heavyweight Fight: Cain Velasquez (-305) vs. Travis Browne (+235)
Velasquez hasn’t fought since he lost his title over a year ago, but UFC 200 could be his first step towards regaining his championship. He will pressure Browne, and his superior wrestling should put him over the top.
Prediction: Velasquez by knockout
from IBTimes
Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Daniel Cormier (+235) vs. Jon Jones (-305)
Maybe if this fight occurred in April like it was originally scheduled to, Cormier would’ve retained the belt. But Jones likely shook off any ring rust he had in his fight against Ovince Saint Preux, and he has the edge going into the main event. Jones is the best fighter in the world, and he should take care of Cormier, just like he did a year and a half ago.
Prediction: Jones by unanimous decision
Heavyweight Fight: Brock Lesnar (+140) vs. Mark Hunt (-170)
No matter how this fight ends, it should be over within the first few minutes. If Hunt gets a clean shot on Lesnar, the former champion’s return from WWE could be a short one. But Lesnar can end this one early by getting his opponent on the ground, where Lesnar has a major advantage.
Prediction: Lesnar by knockout
Women's Bantamweight Title Fight: Miesha Tate (-250) vs. Amanda Nunes (+195)
There’s likely to be at least one upset on the main card of UFC 200, and this fight might be it. The women’s bantamweight division has been unpredictable, with Rousey losing to Holly Holm, who promptly dropped the title to Tate in March. Tate has said she doesn’t think Nunes has what it takes to defeat her, and it’s that kind of thinking that could put the champ on the wrong side of the night’s biggest upset.
Prediction: Nunes by knockout
Interim Featherweight Title Fight: José Aldo (-105) vs. Frankie Edgar (-125)
Aldo was given the decision over Edgar when they fought back in 2013, and rightfully so, but it was a close fight that could have a different outcome on Saturday. Despite Aldo’s assertions, Edgar has gotten even better over the past three years, defeating some of the best competition the 145-pound division has to offer. Aldo has what it takes to outlast Edgar in another five-round fight, but Edgar might not give his opponent the opportunity to make it past the first few rounds.
Prediction: Edgar by knockout
Heavyweight Fight: Cain Velasquez (-305) vs. Travis Browne (+235)
Velasquez hasn’t fought since he lost his title over a year ago, but UFC 200 could be his first step towards regaining his championship. He will pressure Browne, and his superior wrestling should put him over the top.
Prediction: Velasquez by knockout
