UFC 197: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
Yair Rodriguez vs. Andre Fili
Steven RondinaThe UFC sees money in Yair Rodriguez and is not going to risk that with a fair fight. Andre Fili is not actually a tomato can, but there's a reason the company picked him to face the UFC's Great Mexican Hope.
Rodriguez, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Rodriguez has looked terrific, but he's a little bit wild in his attacks. Fili is a live underdog here, and it's time for some risky living. I forecast the UFC 197 main card kicks off with an upset.
Fili, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Hold off on crowning Rodriguez just yet. He's a dynamic performer, with all his spinning stuff and what have you, but Fili is his toughest matchup in the UFC to date. Don't let Fili's 3-2 UFC record fool you; he's insanely aggressive, and he'll pressure Rodriguez, get inside and get him in the clinch, where Fili is fairly underrated. What I want you to do right now is sound the upset alarms. The Team Alpha Male product wins a Fight of the Night candidate.
Fili, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I was a lot higher on Fili two years ago than I am now, and that is affecting how I view this fight. This is a good test for Rodriguez but one he will pass. Fili is going to be good enough to survive, and that's all.
Rodriguez, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Is it still an upset if three of five of us pick Fili? He may be an underdog, but he also has more experience with UFC-caliber fighters. Rodriguez seems promising, but Fili's tenure and his time at Team Alpha Male should guide him to take a decision.
Fili, unanimous decision
Robert Whittaker vs. Rafael Natal
Steven Rondina
Rafael Natal is good enough to make this fight with Robert Whittaker a boring one. Good enough to win it? Not so much.
Whittaker, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Natal has quietly strung together four straight wins, but that run screeches to a halt Saturday night. Whittaker, who is riding a four-fight win streak of his own, is coming into his own as a 185-pounder. He'll earn the stoppage early.
Whittaker, KO, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
If Natal is smart (and all indications are he is, at least in a fighting context), he'll want to grind Whittaker down on the mat or against the fence. It's the smart strategy, but it won't work. Whittaker is too strong and too good. He'll tenderize and neutralize the Brazilian.
Whittaker, TKO, Rd. 2
Nathan McCarter
Natal is too slow for Whittaker. He is, however, not too weak. Natal's chance to win this fight is to turn it into a slog. He won't be able to do that. Whittaker touches him up early and gets a finish late with a barrage of punches.
Whittaker, TKO, Rd. 3
Sydnie Jones
Both have had good runs lately in the UFC, but Natal is unlikely to experience a resurgence in his career after 11 years at it. Whittaker is ascending, and Natal isn't the one to stop him.
Whittaker, TKO, Rd. 2
Anthony Pettis vs. Edson Barboza
Steven Rondina
Edson Barboza has the length and pop to take the upset here, but I'm expecting Anthony Pettis to come out on top. Barboza has a bad habit of going into a defensive shell when facing comparably skilled strikers, and Pettis' cage-cutting will keep the Brazilian's back to the wall for the majority of this fight.
Pettis, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
When people stand and trade with Pettis, they lose. That's why even strikers wrestle with him. Barboza doesn't have the tools to effectively change his game plan, which means he'll be striking with Pettis. And as I said, when people do that, they lose.
Pettis, TKO, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
No ground exchanges in this one. The real winner is you, the home viewer. Both men will have moments, but Pettis—who knows how badly he needs this win—will find Barboza's chin. The dynamic ex-champion will rear his head and re-establish what made him great.
Pettis, TKO, Rd. 1
Nathan McCarter
Expect a more thoughtful approach from Pettis, and a thinking man is a winning man. Barboza has to land his leg kicks to win this fight, but threats of a Pettis takedown will make him hesitant to throw them often enough to score. Pettis counters enough to open up takedowns.
Pettis, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Barboza has ended three fights via leg kicks, and I almost want to pick him out of admiration for that. But I can't. I like Barboza, but despite Pettis' two recent losses, he's still an elite fighter and should handle the Brazilian without much difficulty.
Pettis, unanimous decision
Demetrious Johnson vs. Henry Cejudo
Steven Rondina
We all know the answer to this.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Craig AmosThough Cejudo is highly decorated and recently impressive, Johnson has overcome tougher challenges with relative ease. He'll chain together his attacks with mastery, as he always does, and finish Cejudo inside the distance.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 3
Scott Harris
Mighty Mouse does everything well. He's a true pick-your-poison kind of guy. He'll use that tremendous footwork of his to stay clear of Cejudo's takedown shots and heavy hands. He'll snipe the Olympian from distance and, as the fight goes on, move in for the clinch. Another outstanding, if perhaps not electrifying, performance.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
Too much, too soon for Cejudo. He has the raw abilities both standing and in the grappling to win, but he doesn't have the fluidity to his game to make it effective enough to take the title off Johnson. Mighty Mouse is simply better. He won't be able to finish the Olympic gold medalist, but the score won't be close.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
I wonder if DJ ever gets bored always winning with so little threat to himself. Like DJ (h/t ESPN), I'm also not blown away by Cejudo thus far. He's racked up four decision wins since he's joined the UFC, and his last KO came in a fight for a regional promotion whose cards are full of fast first-round wins. He may be able to hold his own against most in the UFC, but Cejudo won't be able to hack it against DJ.
Johnson, submission, Rd. 4
Jon Jones vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Steven Rondina
The only victory Ovince Saint Preux has a chance of picking up here is the moral one of surviving to the second round.
Jones, submission, Rd. 1
Craig Amos
There are few light heavyweights who can make Jon Jones break a sweat, and Saint Preux isn't one of them. Jones may get off to a slow start after being absent so long, but the finish will come sooner rather than later.
Jones, submission, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
OSP is still so raw it's hard to break down his game. He relies on his great athleticism to power into and out of things and then just goes from there. That's not going to get it done against a newly hungry Jones.
Jones, TKO, Rd. 2
Nathan McCarter
OSP is a deer crossing onto a freeway, and Jones is a Mack truck with a grille guard doing 90 mph downhill.
Jones, submission, Rd. 1
Sydnie Jones
Props to OSP for stepping up on short notice, especially when he just fought in February, but he hasn't established himself as a fighter who could pose any real threat to Jones. So long as Jones can stay out of his own head, he should be fine. Even if he can't, he'll probably be fine.
Jones, TKO, Rd. 2
Yair Rodriguez vs. Andre Fili
Steven RondinaThe UFC sees money in Yair Rodriguez and is not going to risk that with a fair fight. Andre Fili is not actually a tomato can, but there's a reason the company picked him to face the UFC's Great Mexican Hope.
Rodriguez, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Rodriguez has looked terrific, but he's a little bit wild in his attacks. Fili is a live underdog here, and it's time for some risky living. I forecast the UFC 197 main card kicks off with an upset.
Fili, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Hold off on crowning Rodriguez just yet. He's a dynamic performer, with all his spinning stuff and what have you, but Fili is his toughest matchup in the UFC to date. Don't let Fili's 3-2 UFC record fool you; he's insanely aggressive, and he'll pressure Rodriguez, get inside and get him in the clinch, where Fili is fairly underrated. What I want you to do right now is sound the upset alarms. The Team Alpha Male product wins a Fight of the Night candidate.
Fili, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I was a lot higher on Fili two years ago than I am now, and that is affecting how I view this fight. This is a good test for Rodriguez but one he will pass. Fili is going to be good enough to survive, and that's all.
Rodriguez, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Is it still an upset if three of five of us pick Fili? He may be an underdog, but he also has more experience with UFC-caliber fighters. Rodriguez seems promising, but Fili's tenure and his time at Team Alpha Male should guide him to take a decision.
Fili, unanimous decision
Robert Whittaker vs. Rafael Natal
Steven Rondina
Rafael Natal is good enough to make this fight with Robert Whittaker a boring one. Good enough to win it? Not so much.
Whittaker, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Natal has quietly strung together four straight wins, but that run screeches to a halt Saturday night. Whittaker, who is riding a four-fight win streak of his own, is coming into his own as a 185-pounder. He'll earn the stoppage early.
Whittaker, KO, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
If Natal is smart (and all indications are he is, at least in a fighting context), he'll want to grind Whittaker down on the mat or against the fence. It's the smart strategy, but it won't work. Whittaker is too strong and too good. He'll tenderize and neutralize the Brazilian.
Whittaker, TKO, Rd. 2
Nathan McCarter
Natal is too slow for Whittaker. He is, however, not too weak. Natal's chance to win this fight is to turn it into a slog. He won't be able to do that. Whittaker touches him up early and gets a finish late with a barrage of punches.
Whittaker, TKO, Rd. 3
Sydnie Jones
Both have had good runs lately in the UFC, but Natal is unlikely to experience a resurgence in his career after 11 years at it. Whittaker is ascending, and Natal isn't the one to stop him.
Whittaker, TKO, Rd. 2
Anthony Pettis vs. Edson Barboza
Steven Rondina
Edson Barboza has the length and pop to take the upset here, but I'm expecting Anthony Pettis to come out on top. Barboza has a bad habit of going into a defensive shell when facing comparably skilled strikers, and Pettis' cage-cutting will keep the Brazilian's back to the wall for the majority of this fight.
Pettis, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
When people stand and trade with Pettis, they lose. That's why even strikers wrestle with him. Barboza doesn't have the tools to effectively change his game plan, which means he'll be striking with Pettis. And as I said, when people do that, they lose.
Pettis, TKO, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
No ground exchanges in this one. The real winner is you, the home viewer. Both men will have moments, but Pettis—who knows how badly he needs this win—will find Barboza's chin. The dynamic ex-champion will rear his head and re-establish what made him great.
Pettis, TKO, Rd. 1
Nathan McCarter
Expect a more thoughtful approach from Pettis, and a thinking man is a winning man. Barboza has to land his leg kicks to win this fight, but threats of a Pettis takedown will make him hesitant to throw them often enough to score. Pettis counters enough to open up takedowns.
Pettis, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Barboza has ended three fights via leg kicks, and I almost want to pick him out of admiration for that. But I can't. I like Barboza, but despite Pettis' two recent losses, he's still an elite fighter and should handle the Brazilian without much difficulty.
Pettis, unanimous decision
Demetrious Johnson vs. Henry Cejudo
Steven Rondina
We all know the answer to this.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Craig AmosThough Cejudo is highly decorated and recently impressive, Johnson has overcome tougher challenges with relative ease. He'll chain together his attacks with mastery, as he always does, and finish Cejudo inside the distance.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 3
Scott Harris
Mighty Mouse does everything well. He's a true pick-your-poison kind of guy. He'll use that tremendous footwork of his to stay clear of Cejudo's takedown shots and heavy hands. He'll snipe the Olympian from distance and, as the fight goes on, move in for the clinch. Another outstanding, if perhaps not electrifying, performance.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
Too much, too soon for Cejudo. He has the raw abilities both standing and in the grappling to win, but he doesn't have the fluidity to his game to make it effective enough to take the title off Johnson. Mighty Mouse is simply better. He won't be able to finish the Olympic gold medalist, but the score won't be close.
Johnson, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
I wonder if DJ ever gets bored always winning with so little threat to himself. Like DJ (h/t ESPN), I'm also not blown away by Cejudo thus far. He's racked up four decision wins since he's joined the UFC, and his last KO came in a fight for a regional promotion whose cards are full of fast first-round wins. He may be able to hold his own against most in the UFC, but Cejudo won't be able to hack it against DJ.
Johnson, submission, Rd. 4
Jon Jones vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Steven Rondina
The only victory Ovince Saint Preux has a chance of picking up here is the moral one of surviving to the second round.
Jones, submission, Rd. 1
Craig Amos
There are few light heavyweights who can make Jon Jones break a sweat, and Saint Preux isn't one of them. Jones may get off to a slow start after being absent so long, but the finish will come sooner rather than later.
Jones, submission, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
OSP is still so raw it's hard to break down his game. He relies on his great athleticism to power into and out of things and then just goes from there. That's not going to get it done against a newly hungry Jones.
Jones, TKO, Rd. 2
Nathan McCarter
OSP is a deer crossing onto a freeway, and Jones is a Mack truck with a grille guard doing 90 mph downhill.
Jones, submission, Rd. 1
Sydnie Jones
Props to OSP for stepping up on short notice, especially when he just fought in February, but he hasn't established himself as a fighter who could pose any real threat to Jones. So long as Jones can stay out of his own head, he should be fine. Even if he can't, he'll probably be fine.
Jones, TKO, Rd. 2
UFC 197 predictions, preview, and analysis
from Jesse Holland - MMA Mania
205 lbs.: Jon "Bones" Jones (21-1) vs. Ovince "OSP" Saint Preux (19-7)
Nostradumbass predicts: Jon Jones is, and has always been, invincible. Over the course of his remarkable UFC career, which dates back nearly eight years, "Bones" has made the competition look foolish. That includes power punchers, submission specialists, Olympic wrestlers, the works.
I know some of you are thinking, Yeah, but that Alexander Gustafsson fight...
Let's not pretend for a second that Jones was taking that fight seriously. And by his own admission, he was so high, even Cheech and Chong were like damn that guy is high. Jones skated by on talent. The idea that he's now clean and sober -- and training with a champion's intensity -- is terrifying.
The only way Ovince Saint Preux can win is if Jones drives himself to the arena (spoiler: he'll never make it).
"OSP" is not an undersized light heavyweight, packing considerable punch and demonstrating above-average athleticism. The few fighters who failed to take him seriously were either knocked out or choked out, something not lost on the masterminds at Jackson's MMA.
But you can't tell me a fighter who was subbed by Glover Teixeira and handled by Ryan Bader is the type of gladiator who can stop Jones. The evidence simply isn't there. In fact, the biggest win of Saint Preux's career was a first-round stoppage over Mauricio Rua in late 2014.
Beating "Shogun" was a big deal in 2006. In 2014, it was practically a coin toss.
Jones is likely to need a pair of rounds to get his groove back, as 15 months in between fights is long for any fighter and the only time the ex-champ will be vulnerable. Unfortunately for Saint Preux, Jones is 28 -- not 38 -- so he's still in his prime and still as dangerous as ever. Except now he's hungry.
Be afraid.
Final prediction: Jones def. Saint Preux by technical knockout
125 lbs.: Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson (23-2-1) vs. Henry "The Messenger" Cejudo (10-0)
Nostradumbass predicts: Demetrious Johnson will never get the respect he deserves as a martial artist because he competes in the flyweight division, and for some oddball reason, fight fans have trouble rooting for a fighter who looks like they just crawled out of that little suitcase in Puppet Master.
That's a shame, because from a technical standpoint, he's virtually flawless.
I have yet to see a fighter in any division move the way "Mighty Mouse" does and the tape of him transitioning from striking to grappling -- and back again -- is the kind of stuff they air on a loop at MMA gyms around the globe with a Post-It note that reads: Do This.
That's why he beats Henry Cejudo.
"The Messenger" secured gold in the 2008 Olympics at the tender age of 21 but didn't make his MMA debut until 2013. By then, Johnson had already captured the 125-pound crown and was beginning to pull away from the pack, fresh off a unanimous decision win over John Dodson.
For me, that's my big problem with picking the challenger.
After crushing a few cans on the regional circuit, Cejudo made his way to the big leagues and won all four of his fights. Regrettably, I don't remember any of them, because nothing really happened. Well, let me amend that. I do recall his last fight against Jussier Formiga being close.
Close will not cut it against the fastest fighter in MMA.
Compounding the problem is the fact that Cejudo was able to earn a title shot without having to first get past the two toughest guys in the division. I can't say "The Messenger" would have definitively won or lost in showdowns against Dodson or Joseph Benavidez, but it would have been a great way to determine his chances against "Mighty Mouse."
Without that body of work to draw from, I'm sticking with what I know, and what I know is Cejudo can wrestle.
And not much else.
Final prediction: Johnson def. Cejudo via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Anthony "Showtime" Pettis (18-4) vs. Edson Barboza (16-4)
Nostradumbass predicts: Watching Anthony Pettis slowly-but-surely tumble down the lightweight ladder has been a sobering reminder of what happens to a fighter when there is no Plan B. When your opponents yield to your physical attributes, it's Wheaties and super fights.
When they don't, it's fan-favorite match ups against Edson Barboza.
That's not a knock on the Brazilian, who is the reason we have highlight reels in combat sports, but let's not overlook the fact that Barboza will have been with UFC for six years this November, and not once have we ever been in a position to call for a title shot.
I blame the panic button.
Whereas Pettis is befuddled when the fight fails to unfold according to plan, Barboza has a nervous breakdown, or at least seems to perform that way once the shit hits the fan. That's why he's been finished in three of his four losses and always tripped up just when he starts putting together a few wins.
Conversely, "Showtime" has not been knocked out or submitted in 22 professional bouts.
As far as who has the edge in striking for tomorrow night's bangfest, it's hard to say. It's not necessarily who the better striker is, but rather which combatant does a more effective job of controlling the pace and managing any available real estate.
For my money, that's going to be Barboza -- right up until he gets dropped with the jab of doom. Think of the "Cowboy" fight, with a very similar ending.
Final prediction: Pettis def. Barboza via submission
185 lbs.: Rafael "Sapo" Natal (21-6-1) vs. Robert "The Reaper" Whittaker (15-4)
Nostradumbass predicts: Rafael Natal is in a bit of a weird spot at 185 pounds, in that he's just kinda "there." The Brazilian managed to crack the top 15 with a four-fight winning streak, but none of those victories were particularly memorable.
Knocking out TUF import Kevin Casey is not cause for champagne or party hats.
In fact, you can make the argument that Natal's split-decision nod over the hot-and-cold Uriah Hall is his most notable win to date. Either that, or his knockout win over the fading Travis Lutter for Moosin MMA back in 2010. Not exactly the stuff of legend.
That said, "Sapo" is still a top-shelf grappler with knockout power and is not going to just roll over.
Like Natal, Robert Whittaker is still in search of a signature win and also holds a judges' nod over the aforementioned "Prime Time." The Australian blames his early woes on the cut to welterweight and while it garnered him the TUF: "Sm-Ashes" trophy, his middleweight results speak for themselves.
This should prove to be a competitive fight.
Natal doesn't have the kind of wrestling required to get a bull like Whittaker to the floor. In addition, I think "The Reaper" has already surpassed his Brazilian foe in terms of striking and footwork, so I would not expect to see him pressed into the cage or dragged to the ground.
Assuming "Sapo" can avoid the knockout punch, he's likely to lose all three rounds on points.
Final prediction: Whittaker def. Natal via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Andre "Touchy" Fili (15-3) vs. Yair "Pantera" Rodriguez (6-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: Andre Fili was one of the most promising prospects to enter the featherweight division back in 2013 after a torrid 12-1 winning streak. In addition, "Touchy" -- one of the ten best nicknames in MMA -- was backed by Team Alpha Male long before the Sacramento, Calif.-based fight camp suffered a mass exodus.
Unfortunately, he's struggled to find consistency in his short time under the ZUFFA banner, alternating wins and losses in five trips to the Octagon. Losing to the No. 4-ranked Max Holloway is nothing to be ashamed of, but I was disappointed by his loss to Godofredo Castro.
Fili comes into this contest as the more experienced fighter, but I don't think it's fair to have the work Yair Rodriguez did at TUF: "Latin America" stricken from the record simply because they were exhibition bouts. Fighting inside a cage against someone trying to smash you still counts in my book, regardless of how the commission records it.
And "Pantera" was fucking hostile, finishing all four of his victims en route to a glass trophy.
Rodriguez then transitioned to the main roster and racked up another three wins. His competition hasn't been on the same level as Fili's, but I think his consistency throughout the past few years in addition to training alongside Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, and two-time NCAA wrestling champ Jesse Delgado, among others, is what tips the scale tomorrow night in Vegas.
Final prediction: Rodriguez def. Fili via submission
from Jesse Holland - MMA Mania
205 lbs.: Jon "Bones" Jones (21-1) vs. Ovince "OSP" Saint Preux (19-7)
Nostradumbass predicts: Jon Jones is, and has always been, invincible. Over the course of his remarkable UFC career, which dates back nearly eight years, "Bones" has made the competition look foolish. That includes power punchers, submission specialists, Olympic wrestlers, the works.
I know some of you are thinking, Yeah, but that Alexander Gustafsson fight...
Let's not pretend for a second that Jones was taking that fight seriously. And by his own admission, he was so high, even Cheech and Chong were like damn that guy is high. Jones skated by on talent. The idea that he's now clean and sober -- and training with a champion's intensity -- is terrifying.
The only way Ovince Saint Preux can win is if Jones drives himself to the arena (spoiler: he'll never make it).
"OSP" is not an undersized light heavyweight, packing considerable punch and demonstrating above-average athleticism. The few fighters who failed to take him seriously were either knocked out or choked out, something not lost on the masterminds at Jackson's MMA.
But you can't tell me a fighter who was subbed by Glover Teixeira and handled by Ryan Bader is the type of gladiator who can stop Jones. The evidence simply isn't there. In fact, the biggest win of Saint Preux's career was a first-round stoppage over Mauricio Rua in late 2014.
Beating "Shogun" was a big deal in 2006. In 2014, it was practically a coin toss.
Jones is likely to need a pair of rounds to get his groove back, as 15 months in between fights is long for any fighter and the only time the ex-champ will be vulnerable. Unfortunately for Saint Preux, Jones is 28 -- not 38 -- so he's still in his prime and still as dangerous as ever. Except now he's hungry.
Be afraid.
Final prediction: Jones def. Saint Preux by technical knockout
125 lbs.: Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson (23-2-1) vs. Henry "The Messenger" Cejudo (10-0)
Nostradumbass predicts: Demetrious Johnson will never get the respect he deserves as a martial artist because he competes in the flyweight division, and for some oddball reason, fight fans have trouble rooting for a fighter who looks like they just crawled out of that little suitcase in Puppet Master.
That's a shame, because from a technical standpoint, he's virtually flawless.
I have yet to see a fighter in any division move the way "Mighty Mouse" does and the tape of him transitioning from striking to grappling -- and back again -- is the kind of stuff they air on a loop at MMA gyms around the globe with a Post-It note that reads: Do This.
That's why he beats Henry Cejudo.
"The Messenger" secured gold in the 2008 Olympics at the tender age of 21 but didn't make his MMA debut until 2013. By then, Johnson had already captured the 125-pound crown and was beginning to pull away from the pack, fresh off a unanimous decision win over John Dodson.
For me, that's my big problem with picking the challenger.
After crushing a few cans on the regional circuit, Cejudo made his way to the big leagues and won all four of his fights. Regrettably, I don't remember any of them, because nothing really happened. Well, let me amend that. I do recall his last fight against Jussier Formiga being close.
Close will not cut it against the fastest fighter in MMA.
Compounding the problem is the fact that Cejudo was able to earn a title shot without having to first get past the two toughest guys in the division. I can't say "The Messenger" would have definitively won or lost in showdowns against Dodson or Joseph Benavidez, but it would have been a great way to determine his chances against "Mighty Mouse."
Without that body of work to draw from, I'm sticking with what I know, and what I know is Cejudo can wrestle.
And not much else.
Final prediction: Johnson def. Cejudo via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Anthony "Showtime" Pettis (18-4) vs. Edson Barboza (16-4)
Nostradumbass predicts: Watching Anthony Pettis slowly-but-surely tumble down the lightweight ladder has been a sobering reminder of what happens to a fighter when there is no Plan B. When your opponents yield to your physical attributes, it's Wheaties and super fights.
When they don't, it's fan-favorite match ups against Edson Barboza.
That's not a knock on the Brazilian, who is the reason we have highlight reels in combat sports, but let's not overlook the fact that Barboza will have been with UFC for six years this November, and not once have we ever been in a position to call for a title shot.
I blame the panic button.
Whereas Pettis is befuddled when the fight fails to unfold according to plan, Barboza has a nervous breakdown, or at least seems to perform that way once the shit hits the fan. That's why he's been finished in three of his four losses and always tripped up just when he starts putting together a few wins.
Conversely, "Showtime" has not been knocked out or submitted in 22 professional bouts.
As far as who has the edge in striking for tomorrow night's bangfest, it's hard to say. It's not necessarily who the better striker is, but rather which combatant does a more effective job of controlling the pace and managing any available real estate.
For my money, that's going to be Barboza -- right up until he gets dropped with the jab of doom. Think of the "Cowboy" fight, with a very similar ending.
Final prediction: Pettis def. Barboza via submission
185 lbs.: Rafael "Sapo" Natal (21-6-1) vs. Robert "The Reaper" Whittaker (15-4)
Nostradumbass predicts: Rafael Natal is in a bit of a weird spot at 185 pounds, in that he's just kinda "there." The Brazilian managed to crack the top 15 with a four-fight winning streak, but none of those victories were particularly memorable.
Knocking out TUF import Kevin Casey is not cause for champagne or party hats.
In fact, you can make the argument that Natal's split-decision nod over the hot-and-cold Uriah Hall is his most notable win to date. Either that, or his knockout win over the fading Travis Lutter for Moosin MMA back in 2010. Not exactly the stuff of legend.
That said, "Sapo" is still a top-shelf grappler with knockout power and is not going to just roll over.
Like Natal, Robert Whittaker is still in search of a signature win and also holds a judges' nod over the aforementioned "Prime Time." The Australian blames his early woes on the cut to welterweight and while it garnered him the TUF: "Sm-Ashes" trophy, his middleweight results speak for themselves.
This should prove to be a competitive fight.
Natal doesn't have the kind of wrestling required to get a bull like Whittaker to the floor. In addition, I think "The Reaper" has already surpassed his Brazilian foe in terms of striking and footwork, so I would not expect to see him pressed into the cage or dragged to the ground.
Assuming "Sapo" can avoid the knockout punch, he's likely to lose all three rounds on points.
Final prediction: Whittaker def. Natal via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Andre "Touchy" Fili (15-3) vs. Yair "Pantera" Rodriguez (6-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: Andre Fili was one of the most promising prospects to enter the featherweight division back in 2013 after a torrid 12-1 winning streak. In addition, "Touchy" -- one of the ten best nicknames in MMA -- was backed by Team Alpha Male long before the Sacramento, Calif.-based fight camp suffered a mass exodus.
Unfortunately, he's struggled to find consistency in his short time under the ZUFFA banner, alternating wins and losses in five trips to the Octagon. Losing to the No. 4-ranked Max Holloway is nothing to be ashamed of, but I was disappointed by his loss to Godofredo Castro.
Fili comes into this contest as the more experienced fighter, but I don't think it's fair to have the work Yair Rodriguez did at TUF: "Latin America" stricken from the record simply because they were exhibition bouts. Fighting inside a cage against someone trying to smash you still counts in my book, regardless of how the commission records it.
And "Pantera" was fucking hostile, finishing all four of his victims en route to a glass trophy.
Rodriguez then transitioned to the main roster and racked up another three wins. His competition hasn't been on the same level as Fili's, but I think his consistency throughout the past few years in addition to training alongside Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, and two-time NCAA wrestling champ Jesse Delgado, among others, is what tips the scale tomorrow night in Vegas.
Final prediction: Rodriguez def. Fili via submission
UFC 197 Preliminary Predictions
from Kamikaze Overdrive
Pettis / Kelades
Capping off the undercard, Sergio ‘The Phenom’ Pettis looks to build momentum in the Flyweight division when he takes on Canadian Chris ‘The Greek Assassin’ Kelades. Pettis is coming off a UFC 192 victory over former title challenger Chris Cariaso and is 3-1 in last 4 fights. Kelades improved his Octagon mark to 2-1 with a victory over Chirs Beal- he upset Paddy Holohan in his debut.
Kelades is 1″ taller, but it will be Pettis with the 1″ reach advantage. Pettis is 12 years younger than the Canadian.
Kelades is a BJJ Purple belt and relies heavily on his grappling game. He has won 3-times by submission, with his last sub coming by the rarely seen Gogoplatta. He has a solid top game and had a lot of success grinding Holohan into the mat, but overall he has only landed 3 takedowns compared to 10 given up. He was badly outclassed by Borg on the floor and struggled early with Holohan before Paddy gassed. Even against Beal, he spent more time on his back then top position despite initiating a lot of the grappling engagements. His striking is a secondary aspect of his offense, but he did crack Holohan with a pretty solid left hand and had similar success with his left against Beal. He will also throw some decent low and body kicks. He keeps his striking simple, but is aggressive and willing to trade.
In both of Kelades’s wins, his opponent started strong but they were unable to maintain their pace and the Canadian outworked them in rounds 2 and 3 to garner the decision win.
Sergio is a Black belt in Taekwondo and BJJ Blue belt. He has a technically sound striking game, utilizing a variety of kicking techniques and slick combinations. At 4.16 SLpM, he averages almost twice as many connections per minutes as his Canadian counterpart. Through the first 5 fights of his UFC run, Pettis was on the wrong end of the takedown equation. Against Cariaso, he had much more success with his ground game; scoring 3 takedowns and holding prolonged top control. Where Pettis has struggled at times has been with his defense. After dominating Cariaso for 2 rounds, he got a little sloppy in the final frame and had to fend off a late submission attempt. In addition to the knockout loss against Ryan Benoit, Matt Hobar dropped him and Alex Caceres hurt him prior to locking in the submission. As a young fighter, he needs to focus on maintaining a strong defense front from start to finish.
Pettis finished 6 of his first 9 opponents as a pro, but since debuting in the UFC he has yet to finish a fight in 6 fights.
Sergio is the vastly superior technician, but Kelades in usually on the wrong end of the talent scale in most of his fights at this level. He makes up for his deficiencies with aggression and heart. ‘The Greek Assassin’ is difficult to put away and keeps moving forward. Sergio’s aforementioned defensive issues are certainly a concern, but his cardio appears capable of going a full 3-rounds (or at least 2) without relenting. He is 7-0 on the scorecards. Sergio will have a speed advantage to further augment his superior striking arsenal and pace. Kelades can win this fight, but unless he can routinely score takedowns and defend the active guard of Pettis or catch him with a left hand he is going to struggle to mount enough offense to take a decision. Pettis appears to be finding his stride, my prediction is Pettis By Decision
Roberts / Steele
In the Welterweight division, Danny ‘Hot Chocolate’ Roberts takes on Dominique ‘Non-Stop Action-Packed’ Steele. Roberts made a successful debut, submitting Nathan Coy in the first round- he has won 6 consecutive fights. Steele stumbled in his first promotional showing, getting knocked out by Zak Cummings in just 43 seconds, but he rebounded nicely with a definitive KO victory over non-‘Stun Gun’ Dong Hyun Kim.
Roberts is 3 inches taller than Steele, but they have an identical 74″ reach. Steele is the younger man by a year.
The Brit has finished his opponent in 10 of his 12 victories- splitting his wins evenly between knockouts and submissions. Despite his hefty finishing rate, Roberts has just 4 opening round stoppages compared to 5 in the middle frame. He comes from a boxing background, utilizing a strong jab and decent sequence of power punches behind it. In his final pre-UFC fight he stopped Jim Wallhead with a thudding right hook late in the opening round. Danny will add in some kicks, but his hands are the focal point of his attack. Despite his striking background, he showcased a strong grappling game against Coy. Once Coy took him down, Roberts went on the offensive and chained submissions together until he got the tap. He has a nice variety of subs on his record.
Roberts’s defensive wrestling is a bit of an issue. Both Wallhead and Coy took him down and while he was able to work out of the position- against higher level ground fighters it could become a major area of concern.
Steele brutalized his opponent in Korea and finished him with a violent slam. He found success landing 4 takedowns and pummeled his foe both along the cage and in the clinch. He has finished 7 opponents, 4 by knockout and 3 by submission. Dom has a 4-pack of 1st round finishes, all early in his career, and is 7-2 in decisions. He is brawler, with a linear striking style. Steele dropped Kim with an early left hand and hurt him during a couple of other exchanges. Employing minimal footwork, Steele plods forward behind his punches and walks his opponent down. Takedowns are an option, but the majority of his completions are the product of physical strength over technique. Kim is a natural Lightweight and Steele was able to overpower him and put him on the ground with relative eas. Defensively, he has had issue staying on his feet against grappling oriented fighters.
‘Non-Stop Action-Packed’ Steele has been knocked out 4-times, which brings into question his durability. He was stopped in his pro debut and his 3 most recent defeats have all been by some form of knockout in the opening round.
Steele is a bruiser and in order to be successful he needs to impose his phsyical will on his opponent. His route to victory here will most likely come via takedowns and ground and pound. That being said, Roberts is the more capable grappler and unless Steele can do damage early, the Brit will be a handful to control on the floor. Vertically, Roberts has the superior striking technique and will be aided by a speed advantage. Steele’s knockout losses make it difficult to believe that he will be able to endure Robert’s power once the leather starts to fly. Don’t be surprised if Danny goes offensive with his grappling to showcase his well-roundedness, but my prediction is Roberts By TKO
Esparza / Lima
In the Women’s Strawweight division, former Champion Carla ‘Cookie Monster’ Esparza battles Brazilian Juliana Lima. Esparza is coming off of a loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk that cost her the title and ended her 5-fight winning streak. Lima also fought Jedrzejczyk, falling by decision in her UFC debut- she has since picked up back to back wins over Nina Ansaroff and Ericka Almeida.
At 5’5″, Lima is 4 inches taller than Esparza and will have a 2″ reach advantage. Carla is 5 years younger, but she will be returning to action off of a 13-month layoff. She is replacing the injured Jessica Aguilar one 1-month’s notice.
The former champion is a BJJ Blue belt and former All-American wrestler. She has a quartet of submission wins, all coming by rear-naked choke including her win over Rose Namajunas to win the TUF tournament and first UFC Strawweight strap. Not surprising, ‘Cookie Monster’ leans heavily on her wrestling. Against Rose, she landed 5 of her 7 attempts and connected on 107 total strikes. She broke Rose with her top position pressure and constant attack prior to getting the tap. Conversely, Jedrzejczyk stopped 16 of her 17 TDAs and limited Carla to just 6 strikes over 2 rounds of action. At her best, Esparza will rely on her power double and drive through her opponent, using good timing to catch them coming forward. On the feet, she has serviceable striking throwing straight punches in 2-3 strike combos or unloading with short flurries in close.
Despite her crushing loss to drop the title, Carla has compiled a significant list of wins. Including her run on the show, she holds wins over the #3, 4 and 6 ranked fighters in the division as well as a couple of girls that were recently ranked in the top 15.
Lima has a decision heavy win total, with 6 of her 8 victories coming on the scorecard. Her remaining 2 wins both came by first-round TKO. Despite not getting finished, she also struggled to mount much offense against JJ when they fought in 2014. Over the full 15 minutes, Julianna landed just 18 strikes and completed a single takedown on 14 tries. She found more success over her next two victories, with 4 takedowns and a favourable 63 to 36 striking total. Against both Ansaroff and Almeida, Lima took advantage of their aggressive submission offense- defending sub attempts and then maintaining the ensuing top position. While on top, her offense isn’t overwhelming- looking to sit in guard and hold the position between periodic strikes. She also comes from a Muay Thai background, but has only showcased her striking skills in small snippets of action. Against Almeida, she unloaded with a violent sequence of knees and punches to close out round 2- but focused mainly on her mat game.
Lima was originally scheduled to face Jessica Penne UFN 67, but after Penne was given a chance to fight for the title- Julianna fought Almeida instead.
Esparza is coming into this fight after a long layoff, brutal knockout loss, and dropping her title. There is legitimate concern that her performance could be compromised by these factors. For Lima, she needs to instill doubt in Carla and not allow her to settle in and rebuild her confidence. The Brazilian should rely on her striking and push the pace, but she isn’t a volume striker and the threat of getting taken down will further slow her down. Esparza is going to be the best wrestler that Lima has faced, by far. Her position over submission mentality is the polar opposite to what Lima has been capitalizing on in recent fights. Esparza should find success closing the gap and scoring takedowns. Carla will hold prolonged top position control and keep Lima on the defensive for the majority of the fight- my prediction is Esparza By Decesion
Franca / Vick
James ‘The Texecutioner’ Vick looks to remain undefeated when he takes on TUF: Brazil 4’s Glaico ‘Nego’ Franca. Vick is coming off of a submission win of Jake Matthews and is an impressive 4-0 in the UFC. Franca debuted at UFC 190 and defeated Fernando Bruno to win the Lightweight bracket of his TUF season- he has won 3 in a row overall.
Both men are very tall for the division, but Vick will be 3 inches taller at 6’3″. The Brazilian, who is the younger man by 4 years, will have a slight 1″ reach advantage. Vick has been out of action for almost a full year.
The Texas native is a BJJ Blue belt, with 4 of his 5 finishes coming via submission. He choked out both Matthews and Ramsey Nijem via first round guillotine. Vick’s long limbs make him a constant submission threat on the mat. Despite his ground skills, Vick has yet to complete a takedown over his 4 UFC fights, while giving up 6. On the feet, he likes to throw a variety of striking techniques- mixing in jumping knees and superman punches along with more conventional offense. He averages 3.54 SLpM, while landing 77 strikes in his win over Valimir Lazaro. Defensively, Vick is willing to stand and trade which makes him quite hittable. He has a tendency to let his chin rise up when attacking and despite his reach he will run/ step into his strikes which can leave him open to getting countered.
During his run on the Ultimate Fighter, he knocked out Daron Cruickshank with a knee and took a couple of decisions including a win over Joe Proctor. He lost to Michael Chiesa in the semi-finals.
‘Nego’ earned a pair of submission wins to move into the TUF tournament finals and then choked out Bruno for his sixth pro sub to win the tournament. Rear-naked chokes have accounted for 4 of those wins. Franca is a purple belt in Luta Livre and also comes from a Judo background. The majority of the tournament final was contested on the mat. Franca landed 4 takedowns, primarily working along the cage with body lock techniques. He also showed himself to be a capable scrambler, working his way to a superior position in most scenarios. He did find himself on the defensive on a couple of occasions as well, getting put on his back by Bruno. He has 6 knockout victories, but showcased little in his debut beyond some decent kicking techniques.
Franca was able to survive some tough spots and capitalize on his opponent’s exhaustion for the late sub. Prior to his debut only 2 of his last 10 fights had gone beyond the opening round.
Franca has a more than a 2-1 advantage in total experience not including his TUF run, but Vick’s time on the grueling Ultimate Fighter Live and 4 fights in the UFC gives him the advantage in overall quality of experience. Vick is the more-well rounded fighter. Despite the defensive lapse in his striking, he brings a lot of pressure which will be difficult for Franca to deal with. Look for Vick to continuously move forward, inflicting damage and exhausting his foe in the process. If Franca is going to emerge victorious, he will need to find a way to consistently ground his foe and either submit him or hold enough top time to earn the decision. Vick will both defend TDAs and attack off his back if taken down, wearing out Franca and making him more vulnerable as the fight progesses- my prediction is Vick By Submission
Harris / East
In the Heavyweight division, Walt ‘The Big Ticket’ Harris takes his fourth shot at winning his first UFC fight when he takes on the debuting Cody ‘The Freight Train’ East. Harris has lost a trio of UFC fights to Jared Rosholt, Nikita Krylov, and Soa Palelei- the last 2 by knockout. East is riding a 9-fight winning streak with wins over Kevin Asplund and Roy Boughton in his most recent outings.
Harris will have a 3″ reach advantage and at 6’5″ he will be 2 inches taller than East while their weight should be close. East is the younger man by 5 years and fought just 2-months ago while Harris hasn’t seen action in 17-months.
Harris is a physical specimen, training out of American Top Team he is a former Collegiate Basketball player and has an amateur boxing background. Despite his physical gifts and success on the regional scene, he has struggled significantly inside the Octagon. All 7 of his pro wins have come by knockout and he has stopped a couple of recognizable names including fellow UFC fighter Anthony Hamilton. All of his victories took place in the opening round, with 6 of 7 ending before the 2-minute mark. Conversely, 3 of his 4 losses came after the first 5-minutes. In his debut, he started strong against Rosholt- stuffing takedowns and landing some decent strikes, but he faded under the constant forward pressure that the wrestler brought.
Against Palelei, he did an excellent job of denying the early TDAs, but he failed to land anything significant on the feet and appeared to wear down despite the slow pace of the fight.
A former High School State wrestling champion, East has finished 11 of his 12 wins- 8 by knockout. He has stopped 8 fights in the opening round, with his only decision going a full 5 rounds. East’s level of competition is decent, with his only defeat coming against regional veteran Tony Lopez and his last 2 opponents combining for a 29-17 record. He currently trains out of Jackson-Winkeljohn and captured both the Legacy FC and King of the Cage Heavyweight championships. ‘The Freight Train’ has a pretty sound striking attack, pairing together short but impactful punches. Cody augments his boxing with a workable kicking game including an effective front kick to the midsection that has some power behind it. In his stoppage win over Veron Lewis, he showed great composure; hurting him and then unloading with a calculated sequence of strikes to get the finish without exhausting himself or leaving defensive openings.
East is another product of Dana White’s ‘Looking for a Fight’ reality show. His debut is controversial due to criminal history, but the UFC felt he had distanced himself enough from those previous issues to offer him a contract.
Harris is the bigger man and has 3 UFC fights already under his belt. Unfortunately, he has not looked good in those fights and the 17-month most likely won’t do him any favours. His lack of offensive output, even when able to keep the fight standing, is concerning on its own. More concerning, is the minimal resistance he gave in is 2 knockout losses. In both fights, once his opponents move to a superior position and started to land strikes he immediately relented. East moves pretty well for a Heavyweight and his style appears more suited for a longer fight if it gets there. East also does a good job of targeting the body, which will further sap Harris’s cardio. Cody’s activity level and ability to put damaging punches together won’t bode well for Harris- my prediction is East By TKO
De Lima / Hester
In the Light Heavyweight division, Brazil’s Marcos Rogerio De Lima goes to war with Clint ‘Headbussa’ Hester. De Lima is coming off of a submission loss to Nitkita Krylov which ended his 6-fight unbeaten streak. Hester has lost back to back fights for the second time in his career, falling to Vitor Miranda and Robert Whittaker both by TKO.
Hester competed as a Middleweight for the first 6 fights of his UFC run, compiling a 4-2 record. Conversely, De Lima debuted in the UFC and competed on TUF Brazil as a Heavyweight. Hester is 1″ taller and will have 2″ reach advantage.
The Brazilian is an absolute bruiser, finishing 10 of his 13 victories by knockout along with 1 of his 2 submission wins coming via strikes. De Lima has compiled 10 opening round finishes, including both of his UFC wins. He is a Muay Thai trained striker and likes to impose his physical strength in the clinch. In his debut, he closed the gap quickly, landed some hard knees to the body, and then dropped his opponent on the break with a thunderous right hand. He finished Igor Pokrajac with a series of brutal punches during an exchange after some clinch work. Rogerio tapped former Bellator Heavyweight and BJJ Black belt, Thiago Santos via Guillotine in the TUF elimination round and went for several subs against Krylov. Unfortunately, his submission over position mentality cost him, as he lost position and was choked out.
De Lima did earn a 2-round decision win on the show, but he has only gone the distance twice, with his last occurring in early 2011. His cardio appears to be an area of vulnerability.
Coming from a Boxing background, Hester has won the majority of his fights by knockout (7). He stopped Bristol Marunde with a vicious standing elbow strike in third round back in 2013. His only other stoppage victory since that fight came due to injury. Hester has put up some decent striking totals; after landing 66 against Marunde, he put up 72 in a decision win over Andy Enz. He has a pretty solid striking repertoire and mixes up his attack effectively. In a bit of surprising move, he opted for a takedown-based offense early in his fight with Miranda. He struggled to keep the Brazilian on the floor, and eventually lost the position and was finished. One fight prior, he got shut down by the speed of Robert Whittaker who was able to be both the more impactful and busier striker.
Hester was knocked out twice in his boxing career through just 7 fights and is now coming off of the first 2 knockout losses of his MMA run.
Despite Hester’s striking background, he might be best-suited to return to the approach he used against Miranda. If he can take Rogerio down, he both takes away his power and should be able to tire him out. The American should mind his neck when driving for a takedown, as De Lima isn’t afraid to look for a submission off his back and that might make if hard for Hester to hold top position. On the feet, Hester really hasn’t shown the ability to put away his opponent with one shot, instead needing to compile damage over a longer stretch. That will prove difficult against Rogerio who will push the pace. There are defensive gaps in Hester’s striking front and they will be magnified by the De Lima’s aggression. Back to back knockout losses and then moving up a division to faces an even heavier hitter is not a good combo for the former boxer- my prediction is De Lima BY KO
Lee / Escudero
Opening the card, Ultimate Fighter 8 winner Efrain Escudero takes on ‘The Motown Phenom’ Kevin Lee in the Lightweight division. Lee is coming off an upset loss to Leonardo Santos at UFC 194 which ended his 4-fight winning streak. Escudero’s brief 2-fight winning streak was snapped by Leandro Silva, he had taken wins over Drew Dober and Rodrigo de Lima.
Both men stand 5’9″, but Lee will have a sizeable 7″ reach advantage. He is also the younger man by 6 years.
Lee is a former NCAA D-2 wrestler, averaging 3.16 takedowns at a 38% completion rate. During the first 3 wins in his UFC career, he landed 4 takedowns per fight. He compliments his wrestling with a crisp boxing game setup behind a strong left jab and supported by a serviceable kicking repertoire. He averages 3.66 strikes per minute, connecting on his UFC best 74 strikes against John Tuck. Unfortunately, he doesn’t appear to have a tonne of power and has never knocked an opponent out. He is 6-1 on the scorecards and has 5 submission wins- 4 by some form of choke.
Lee is coming off a bit of a shocking upset, which was further magnified because he was knocked out by a fighter known almost exclusively for his grappling skills.
A BJJ Blue and collegiate wrestler, Escudero has compiled a lengthy list of submission victories. Of his 13 subs, 11 have come via choke including his 54-second submission of Drew Dober at UFC 188. The Dober sub was the first for Escudero inside the Octagon, but the ground game has still played a significant role in his UFC success. He is 3-2 in fights where he wins the takedown battle, but a dismal 1-5 when his opponent gets the better of the wrestling exchanges. He did manage to find success in his last fight, putting Leandro Silva on the floor twice. But, he struggled to keep him there and was unable to match his offensive output once back on the feet. Escudero doesn’t have an overwhelming striking repertoire which is most likely the reason for his live and die reliance on his grappling. He has just 2 knockouts and averages 2.73 strikes per minute.
Efrain is 9-8 in decisions and prior to the Dober win his last UFC finish was a knockout of Cole Miller at UFC 103.
Lee is coming off the first knockout loss of his career. He rebounded well from his first career loss, but a knockout can be much harder to overcome. He will be the superior wrestler, allowing him to both defend Escudero’s TDA’s and score some of his own. When he has been taken down, he is pretty quick at returning to his feet. At the very least, he should be able to keep the wrestling exchanges even which has not been a winning scenario for Efrain. Despite his lack of power, Lee has the superior striking repertoire based on his significant reach advantage, superior output, and more refined skills. Escudero will most likely need a finish in this fight as he won’t be able to keep up with the work rate of Lee- my prediction is Lee By Decision
from Kamikaze Overdrive
Pettis / Kelades
Capping off the undercard, Sergio ‘The Phenom’ Pettis looks to build momentum in the Flyweight division when he takes on Canadian Chris ‘The Greek Assassin’ Kelades. Pettis is coming off a UFC 192 victory over former title challenger Chris Cariaso and is 3-1 in last 4 fights. Kelades improved his Octagon mark to 2-1 with a victory over Chirs Beal- he upset Paddy Holohan in his debut.
Kelades is 1″ taller, but it will be Pettis with the 1″ reach advantage. Pettis is 12 years younger than the Canadian.
Kelades is a BJJ Purple belt and relies heavily on his grappling game. He has won 3-times by submission, with his last sub coming by the rarely seen Gogoplatta. He has a solid top game and had a lot of success grinding Holohan into the mat, but overall he has only landed 3 takedowns compared to 10 given up. He was badly outclassed by Borg on the floor and struggled early with Holohan before Paddy gassed. Even against Beal, he spent more time on his back then top position despite initiating a lot of the grappling engagements. His striking is a secondary aspect of his offense, but he did crack Holohan with a pretty solid left hand and had similar success with his left against Beal. He will also throw some decent low and body kicks. He keeps his striking simple, but is aggressive and willing to trade.
In both of Kelades’s wins, his opponent started strong but they were unable to maintain their pace and the Canadian outworked them in rounds 2 and 3 to garner the decision win.
Sergio is a Black belt in Taekwondo and BJJ Blue belt. He has a technically sound striking game, utilizing a variety of kicking techniques and slick combinations. At 4.16 SLpM, he averages almost twice as many connections per minutes as his Canadian counterpart. Through the first 5 fights of his UFC run, Pettis was on the wrong end of the takedown equation. Against Cariaso, he had much more success with his ground game; scoring 3 takedowns and holding prolonged top control. Where Pettis has struggled at times has been with his defense. After dominating Cariaso for 2 rounds, he got a little sloppy in the final frame and had to fend off a late submission attempt. In addition to the knockout loss against Ryan Benoit, Matt Hobar dropped him and Alex Caceres hurt him prior to locking in the submission. As a young fighter, he needs to focus on maintaining a strong defense front from start to finish.
Pettis finished 6 of his first 9 opponents as a pro, but since debuting in the UFC he has yet to finish a fight in 6 fights.
Sergio is the vastly superior technician, but Kelades in usually on the wrong end of the talent scale in most of his fights at this level. He makes up for his deficiencies with aggression and heart. ‘The Greek Assassin’ is difficult to put away and keeps moving forward. Sergio’s aforementioned defensive issues are certainly a concern, but his cardio appears capable of going a full 3-rounds (or at least 2) without relenting. He is 7-0 on the scorecards. Sergio will have a speed advantage to further augment his superior striking arsenal and pace. Kelades can win this fight, but unless he can routinely score takedowns and defend the active guard of Pettis or catch him with a left hand he is going to struggle to mount enough offense to take a decision. Pettis appears to be finding his stride, my prediction is Pettis By Decision
Roberts / Steele
In the Welterweight division, Danny ‘Hot Chocolate’ Roberts takes on Dominique ‘Non-Stop Action-Packed’ Steele. Roberts made a successful debut, submitting Nathan Coy in the first round- he has won 6 consecutive fights. Steele stumbled in his first promotional showing, getting knocked out by Zak Cummings in just 43 seconds, but he rebounded nicely with a definitive KO victory over non-‘Stun Gun’ Dong Hyun Kim.
Roberts is 3 inches taller than Steele, but they have an identical 74″ reach. Steele is the younger man by a year.
The Brit has finished his opponent in 10 of his 12 victories- splitting his wins evenly between knockouts and submissions. Despite his hefty finishing rate, Roberts has just 4 opening round stoppages compared to 5 in the middle frame. He comes from a boxing background, utilizing a strong jab and decent sequence of power punches behind it. In his final pre-UFC fight he stopped Jim Wallhead with a thudding right hook late in the opening round. Danny will add in some kicks, but his hands are the focal point of his attack. Despite his striking background, he showcased a strong grappling game against Coy. Once Coy took him down, Roberts went on the offensive and chained submissions together until he got the tap. He has a nice variety of subs on his record.
Roberts’s defensive wrestling is a bit of an issue. Both Wallhead and Coy took him down and while he was able to work out of the position- against higher level ground fighters it could become a major area of concern.
Steele brutalized his opponent in Korea and finished him with a violent slam. He found success landing 4 takedowns and pummeled his foe both along the cage and in the clinch. He has finished 7 opponents, 4 by knockout and 3 by submission. Dom has a 4-pack of 1st round finishes, all early in his career, and is 7-2 in decisions. He is brawler, with a linear striking style. Steele dropped Kim with an early left hand and hurt him during a couple of other exchanges. Employing minimal footwork, Steele plods forward behind his punches and walks his opponent down. Takedowns are an option, but the majority of his completions are the product of physical strength over technique. Kim is a natural Lightweight and Steele was able to overpower him and put him on the ground with relative eas. Defensively, he has had issue staying on his feet against grappling oriented fighters.
‘Non-Stop Action-Packed’ Steele has been knocked out 4-times, which brings into question his durability. He was stopped in his pro debut and his 3 most recent defeats have all been by some form of knockout in the opening round.
Steele is a bruiser and in order to be successful he needs to impose his phsyical will on his opponent. His route to victory here will most likely come via takedowns and ground and pound. That being said, Roberts is the more capable grappler and unless Steele can do damage early, the Brit will be a handful to control on the floor. Vertically, Roberts has the superior striking technique and will be aided by a speed advantage. Steele’s knockout losses make it difficult to believe that he will be able to endure Robert’s power once the leather starts to fly. Don’t be surprised if Danny goes offensive with his grappling to showcase his well-roundedness, but my prediction is Roberts By TKO
Esparza / Lima
In the Women’s Strawweight division, former Champion Carla ‘Cookie Monster’ Esparza battles Brazilian Juliana Lima. Esparza is coming off of a loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk that cost her the title and ended her 5-fight winning streak. Lima also fought Jedrzejczyk, falling by decision in her UFC debut- she has since picked up back to back wins over Nina Ansaroff and Ericka Almeida.
At 5’5″, Lima is 4 inches taller than Esparza and will have a 2″ reach advantage. Carla is 5 years younger, but she will be returning to action off of a 13-month layoff. She is replacing the injured Jessica Aguilar one 1-month’s notice.
The former champion is a BJJ Blue belt and former All-American wrestler. She has a quartet of submission wins, all coming by rear-naked choke including her win over Rose Namajunas to win the TUF tournament and first UFC Strawweight strap. Not surprising, ‘Cookie Monster’ leans heavily on her wrestling. Against Rose, she landed 5 of her 7 attempts and connected on 107 total strikes. She broke Rose with her top position pressure and constant attack prior to getting the tap. Conversely, Jedrzejczyk stopped 16 of her 17 TDAs and limited Carla to just 6 strikes over 2 rounds of action. At her best, Esparza will rely on her power double and drive through her opponent, using good timing to catch them coming forward. On the feet, she has serviceable striking throwing straight punches in 2-3 strike combos or unloading with short flurries in close.
Despite her crushing loss to drop the title, Carla has compiled a significant list of wins. Including her run on the show, she holds wins over the #3, 4 and 6 ranked fighters in the division as well as a couple of girls that were recently ranked in the top 15.
Lima has a decision heavy win total, with 6 of her 8 victories coming on the scorecard. Her remaining 2 wins both came by first-round TKO. Despite not getting finished, she also struggled to mount much offense against JJ when they fought in 2014. Over the full 15 minutes, Julianna landed just 18 strikes and completed a single takedown on 14 tries. She found more success over her next two victories, with 4 takedowns and a favourable 63 to 36 striking total. Against both Ansaroff and Almeida, Lima took advantage of their aggressive submission offense- defending sub attempts and then maintaining the ensuing top position. While on top, her offense isn’t overwhelming- looking to sit in guard and hold the position between periodic strikes. She also comes from a Muay Thai background, but has only showcased her striking skills in small snippets of action. Against Almeida, she unloaded with a violent sequence of knees and punches to close out round 2- but focused mainly on her mat game.
Lima was originally scheduled to face Jessica Penne UFN 67, but after Penne was given a chance to fight for the title- Julianna fought Almeida instead.
Esparza is coming into this fight after a long layoff, brutal knockout loss, and dropping her title. There is legitimate concern that her performance could be compromised by these factors. For Lima, she needs to instill doubt in Carla and not allow her to settle in and rebuild her confidence. The Brazilian should rely on her striking and push the pace, but she isn’t a volume striker and the threat of getting taken down will further slow her down. Esparza is going to be the best wrestler that Lima has faced, by far. Her position over submission mentality is the polar opposite to what Lima has been capitalizing on in recent fights. Esparza should find success closing the gap and scoring takedowns. Carla will hold prolonged top position control and keep Lima on the defensive for the majority of the fight- my prediction is Esparza By Decesion
Franca / Vick
James ‘The Texecutioner’ Vick looks to remain undefeated when he takes on TUF: Brazil 4’s Glaico ‘Nego’ Franca. Vick is coming off of a submission win of Jake Matthews and is an impressive 4-0 in the UFC. Franca debuted at UFC 190 and defeated Fernando Bruno to win the Lightweight bracket of his TUF season- he has won 3 in a row overall.
Both men are very tall for the division, but Vick will be 3 inches taller at 6’3″. The Brazilian, who is the younger man by 4 years, will have a slight 1″ reach advantage. Vick has been out of action for almost a full year.
The Texas native is a BJJ Blue belt, with 4 of his 5 finishes coming via submission. He choked out both Matthews and Ramsey Nijem via first round guillotine. Vick’s long limbs make him a constant submission threat on the mat. Despite his ground skills, Vick has yet to complete a takedown over his 4 UFC fights, while giving up 6. On the feet, he likes to throw a variety of striking techniques- mixing in jumping knees and superman punches along with more conventional offense. He averages 3.54 SLpM, while landing 77 strikes in his win over Valimir Lazaro. Defensively, Vick is willing to stand and trade which makes him quite hittable. He has a tendency to let his chin rise up when attacking and despite his reach he will run/ step into his strikes which can leave him open to getting countered.
During his run on the Ultimate Fighter, he knocked out Daron Cruickshank with a knee and took a couple of decisions including a win over Joe Proctor. He lost to Michael Chiesa in the semi-finals.
‘Nego’ earned a pair of submission wins to move into the TUF tournament finals and then choked out Bruno for his sixth pro sub to win the tournament. Rear-naked chokes have accounted for 4 of those wins. Franca is a purple belt in Luta Livre and also comes from a Judo background. The majority of the tournament final was contested on the mat. Franca landed 4 takedowns, primarily working along the cage with body lock techniques. He also showed himself to be a capable scrambler, working his way to a superior position in most scenarios. He did find himself on the defensive on a couple of occasions as well, getting put on his back by Bruno. He has 6 knockout victories, but showcased little in his debut beyond some decent kicking techniques.
Franca was able to survive some tough spots and capitalize on his opponent’s exhaustion for the late sub. Prior to his debut only 2 of his last 10 fights had gone beyond the opening round.
Franca has a more than a 2-1 advantage in total experience not including his TUF run, but Vick’s time on the grueling Ultimate Fighter Live and 4 fights in the UFC gives him the advantage in overall quality of experience. Vick is the more-well rounded fighter. Despite the defensive lapse in his striking, he brings a lot of pressure which will be difficult for Franca to deal with. Look for Vick to continuously move forward, inflicting damage and exhausting his foe in the process. If Franca is going to emerge victorious, he will need to find a way to consistently ground his foe and either submit him or hold enough top time to earn the decision. Vick will both defend TDAs and attack off his back if taken down, wearing out Franca and making him more vulnerable as the fight progesses- my prediction is Vick By Submission
Harris / East
In the Heavyweight division, Walt ‘The Big Ticket’ Harris takes his fourth shot at winning his first UFC fight when he takes on the debuting Cody ‘The Freight Train’ East. Harris has lost a trio of UFC fights to Jared Rosholt, Nikita Krylov, and Soa Palelei- the last 2 by knockout. East is riding a 9-fight winning streak with wins over Kevin Asplund and Roy Boughton in his most recent outings.
Harris will have a 3″ reach advantage and at 6’5″ he will be 2 inches taller than East while their weight should be close. East is the younger man by 5 years and fought just 2-months ago while Harris hasn’t seen action in 17-months.
Harris is a physical specimen, training out of American Top Team he is a former Collegiate Basketball player and has an amateur boxing background. Despite his physical gifts and success on the regional scene, he has struggled significantly inside the Octagon. All 7 of his pro wins have come by knockout and he has stopped a couple of recognizable names including fellow UFC fighter Anthony Hamilton. All of his victories took place in the opening round, with 6 of 7 ending before the 2-minute mark. Conversely, 3 of his 4 losses came after the first 5-minutes. In his debut, he started strong against Rosholt- stuffing takedowns and landing some decent strikes, but he faded under the constant forward pressure that the wrestler brought.
Against Palelei, he did an excellent job of denying the early TDAs, but he failed to land anything significant on the feet and appeared to wear down despite the slow pace of the fight.
A former High School State wrestling champion, East has finished 11 of his 12 wins- 8 by knockout. He has stopped 8 fights in the opening round, with his only decision going a full 5 rounds. East’s level of competition is decent, with his only defeat coming against regional veteran Tony Lopez and his last 2 opponents combining for a 29-17 record. He currently trains out of Jackson-Winkeljohn and captured both the Legacy FC and King of the Cage Heavyweight championships. ‘The Freight Train’ has a pretty sound striking attack, pairing together short but impactful punches. Cody augments his boxing with a workable kicking game including an effective front kick to the midsection that has some power behind it. In his stoppage win over Veron Lewis, he showed great composure; hurting him and then unloading with a calculated sequence of strikes to get the finish without exhausting himself or leaving defensive openings.
East is another product of Dana White’s ‘Looking for a Fight’ reality show. His debut is controversial due to criminal history, but the UFC felt he had distanced himself enough from those previous issues to offer him a contract.
Harris is the bigger man and has 3 UFC fights already under his belt. Unfortunately, he has not looked good in those fights and the 17-month most likely won’t do him any favours. His lack of offensive output, even when able to keep the fight standing, is concerning on its own. More concerning, is the minimal resistance he gave in is 2 knockout losses. In both fights, once his opponents move to a superior position and started to land strikes he immediately relented. East moves pretty well for a Heavyweight and his style appears more suited for a longer fight if it gets there. East also does a good job of targeting the body, which will further sap Harris’s cardio. Cody’s activity level and ability to put damaging punches together won’t bode well for Harris- my prediction is East By TKO
De Lima / Hester
In the Light Heavyweight division, Brazil’s Marcos Rogerio De Lima goes to war with Clint ‘Headbussa’ Hester. De Lima is coming off of a submission loss to Nitkita Krylov which ended his 6-fight unbeaten streak. Hester has lost back to back fights for the second time in his career, falling to Vitor Miranda and Robert Whittaker both by TKO.
Hester competed as a Middleweight for the first 6 fights of his UFC run, compiling a 4-2 record. Conversely, De Lima debuted in the UFC and competed on TUF Brazil as a Heavyweight. Hester is 1″ taller and will have 2″ reach advantage.
The Brazilian is an absolute bruiser, finishing 10 of his 13 victories by knockout along with 1 of his 2 submission wins coming via strikes. De Lima has compiled 10 opening round finishes, including both of his UFC wins. He is a Muay Thai trained striker and likes to impose his physical strength in the clinch. In his debut, he closed the gap quickly, landed some hard knees to the body, and then dropped his opponent on the break with a thunderous right hand. He finished Igor Pokrajac with a series of brutal punches during an exchange after some clinch work. Rogerio tapped former Bellator Heavyweight and BJJ Black belt, Thiago Santos via Guillotine in the TUF elimination round and went for several subs against Krylov. Unfortunately, his submission over position mentality cost him, as he lost position and was choked out.
De Lima did earn a 2-round decision win on the show, but he has only gone the distance twice, with his last occurring in early 2011. His cardio appears to be an area of vulnerability.
Coming from a Boxing background, Hester has won the majority of his fights by knockout (7). He stopped Bristol Marunde with a vicious standing elbow strike in third round back in 2013. His only other stoppage victory since that fight came due to injury. Hester has put up some decent striking totals; after landing 66 against Marunde, he put up 72 in a decision win over Andy Enz. He has a pretty solid striking repertoire and mixes up his attack effectively. In a bit of surprising move, he opted for a takedown-based offense early in his fight with Miranda. He struggled to keep the Brazilian on the floor, and eventually lost the position and was finished. One fight prior, he got shut down by the speed of Robert Whittaker who was able to be both the more impactful and busier striker.
Hester was knocked out twice in his boxing career through just 7 fights and is now coming off of the first 2 knockout losses of his MMA run.
Despite Hester’s striking background, he might be best-suited to return to the approach he used against Miranda. If he can take Rogerio down, he both takes away his power and should be able to tire him out. The American should mind his neck when driving for a takedown, as De Lima isn’t afraid to look for a submission off his back and that might make if hard for Hester to hold top position. On the feet, Hester really hasn’t shown the ability to put away his opponent with one shot, instead needing to compile damage over a longer stretch. That will prove difficult against Rogerio who will push the pace. There are defensive gaps in Hester’s striking front and they will be magnified by the De Lima’s aggression. Back to back knockout losses and then moving up a division to faces an even heavier hitter is not a good combo for the former boxer- my prediction is De Lima BY KO
Lee / Escudero
Opening the card, Ultimate Fighter 8 winner Efrain Escudero takes on ‘The Motown Phenom’ Kevin Lee in the Lightweight division. Lee is coming off an upset loss to Leonardo Santos at UFC 194 which ended his 4-fight winning streak. Escudero’s brief 2-fight winning streak was snapped by Leandro Silva, he had taken wins over Drew Dober and Rodrigo de Lima.
Both men stand 5’9″, but Lee will have a sizeable 7″ reach advantage. He is also the younger man by 6 years.
Lee is a former NCAA D-2 wrestler, averaging 3.16 takedowns at a 38% completion rate. During the first 3 wins in his UFC career, he landed 4 takedowns per fight. He compliments his wrestling with a crisp boxing game setup behind a strong left jab and supported by a serviceable kicking repertoire. He averages 3.66 strikes per minute, connecting on his UFC best 74 strikes against John Tuck. Unfortunately, he doesn’t appear to have a tonne of power and has never knocked an opponent out. He is 6-1 on the scorecards and has 5 submission wins- 4 by some form of choke.
Lee is coming off a bit of a shocking upset, which was further magnified because he was knocked out by a fighter known almost exclusively for his grappling skills.
A BJJ Blue and collegiate wrestler, Escudero has compiled a lengthy list of submission victories. Of his 13 subs, 11 have come via choke including his 54-second submission of Drew Dober at UFC 188. The Dober sub was the first for Escudero inside the Octagon, but the ground game has still played a significant role in his UFC success. He is 3-2 in fights where he wins the takedown battle, but a dismal 1-5 when his opponent gets the better of the wrestling exchanges. He did manage to find success in his last fight, putting Leandro Silva on the floor twice. But, he struggled to keep him there and was unable to match his offensive output once back on the feet. Escudero doesn’t have an overwhelming striking repertoire which is most likely the reason for his live and die reliance on his grappling. He has just 2 knockouts and averages 2.73 strikes per minute.
Efrain is 9-8 in decisions and prior to the Dober win his last UFC finish was a knockout of Cole Miller at UFC 103.
Lee is coming off the first knockout loss of his career. He rebounded well from his first career loss, but a knockout can be much harder to overcome. He will be the superior wrestler, allowing him to both defend Escudero’s TDA’s and score some of his own. When he has been taken down, he is pretty quick at returning to his feet. At the very least, he should be able to keep the wrestling exchanges even which has not been a winning scenario for Efrain. Despite his lack of power, Lee has the superior striking repertoire based on his significant reach advantage, superior output, and more refined skills. Escudero will most likely need a finish in this fight as he won’t be able to keep up with the work rate of Lee- my prediction is Lee By Decision
Everybody made weight ... Showtime Saturday
Jon Jones (205) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (205)
Demetrious Johnson (125) vs. Henry Cejudo (125)
Edson Barboza (155) vs. Anthony Pettis (156)
Rafael Natal (186) vs. Robert Whittaker (185.5)
Andre Fili (146) vs. Yair Rodriguez (145.5)
Preliminary Card (8 PM ET, FS1)
Chris Kelades (126) vs. Sergio Pettis (126)
Danny Roberts (170.5) vs. Dominique Steele (171)
Carla Esparza (116) vs. Juliana Lima (115)
Glaico Franca (156) vs. James Vick (155)
Preliminary Card (6:30 PM ET, Fight Pass)
Cody East (245.5) vs. Walt Harris (255.5)
Clint Hester (205) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (205)
Efrain Escudero (155.5) vs. Kevin Lee (156)
Jon Jones (205) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (205)
Demetrious Johnson (125) vs. Henry Cejudo (125)
Edson Barboza (155) vs. Anthony Pettis (156)
Rafael Natal (186) vs. Robert Whittaker (185.5)
Andre Fili (146) vs. Yair Rodriguez (145.5)
Preliminary Card (8 PM ET, FS1)
Chris Kelades (126) vs. Sergio Pettis (126)
Danny Roberts (170.5) vs. Dominique Steele (171)
Carla Esparza (116) vs. Juliana Lima (115)
Glaico Franca (156) vs. James Vick (155)
Preliminary Card (6:30 PM ET, Fight Pass)
Cody East (245.5) vs. Walt Harris (255.5)
Clint Hester (205) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (205)
Efrain Escudero (155.5) vs. Kevin Lee (156)
Bloody Elbow Staff Predictions
Staff picking Jones: Artem, Tim Bis, Victor, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser
Staff picking OSP: Jed
Staff picking Johnson: Artem, Tim Bis, Victor, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Cejudo:
Staff picking Barboza: Nick
Staff picking Pettis: Artem, Tim Bis, Victor, Stephie, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Natal: Artem, Fraser
Staff picking Whittaker: Tim Bis, Victor, Nick, Stephie, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Jed
Staff picking Fili: Nick, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Rodriguez: Artem, Tim Bis, Stephie, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Kelades: Tim Bis, Stephie, Victor, Mookie
Staff picking Pettis: Artem, Nick, Phil, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Roberts: Artem, Tim Bis, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Steele:
Staff picking Esparza: Artem, Nick, Victor, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Lima: Tim Bis, Stephie
Staff picking Franca: Tim
Staff picking Vick: Artem, Tim Bis, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking East: Artem, Tim Bis, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Harris:
Staff picking Hester: Artem, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser
Staff picking Lima: Nick, Stephie, Zane, Tim. Jed
Staff picking Escudero: Zane
Staff picking Lee: Artem, Tim Bis, Nick, Stephie, Victor, Phil, Mookie, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Jones: Artem, Tim Bis, Victor, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser
Staff picking OSP: Jed
Staff picking Johnson: Artem, Tim Bis, Victor, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Cejudo:
Staff picking Barboza: Nick
Staff picking Pettis: Artem, Tim Bis, Victor, Stephie, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Natal: Artem, Fraser
Staff picking Whittaker: Tim Bis, Victor, Nick, Stephie, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Jed
Staff picking Fili: Nick, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Rodriguez: Artem, Tim Bis, Stephie, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Kelades: Tim Bis, Stephie, Victor, Mookie
Staff picking Pettis: Artem, Nick, Phil, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Roberts: Artem, Tim Bis, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Steele:
Staff picking Esparza: Artem, Nick, Victor, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Lima: Tim Bis, Stephie
Staff picking Franca: Tim
Staff picking Vick: Artem, Tim Bis, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking East: Artem, Tim Bis, Nick, Stephie, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Tim, Fraser, Jed
Staff picking Harris:
Staff picking Hester: Artem, Tim Bis, Mookie, Phil, Fraser
Staff picking Lima: Nick, Stephie, Zane, Tim. Jed
Staff picking Escudero: Zane
Staff picking Lee: Artem, Tim Bis, Nick, Stephie, Victor, Phil, Mookie, Tim, Fraser, Jed
MMA Junkie Staff Picks
Jones (21-1 MMA, 15-1 UFC) Only one of our nine MMAjunkie editors, writers and radio hosts had the courage to pick against Jones, who is considered one of the greatest fighters of all time.
Demetrious Johnson (23-2-1 MMA, 11-1-1 UFC) Only one of our nine is picking the challenger.
Anthony Pettis (18-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC) In a tight race, five of our staffers like the favored Pettis to four for underdog
Robert Whittaker (15-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC) is the lone unanimous pick on the card. All nine of our staff members believe he’ll beat Rafael Natal.
And to open the main card, only two of our nine pickers believe Andre Fili (15-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) will top Yair Rodriguez (6-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC).
In the MMAjunkie reader consensus picks ... Jones (88%), Johnson (72%), Pettis (71%), Whittaker (77%) and Rodriguez (62%) have the edge.
Jones (21-1 MMA, 15-1 UFC) Only one of our nine MMAjunkie editors, writers and radio hosts had the courage to pick against Jones, who is considered one of the greatest fighters of all time.
Demetrious Johnson (23-2-1 MMA, 11-1-1 UFC) Only one of our nine is picking the challenger.
Anthony Pettis (18-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC) In a tight race, five of our staffers like the favored Pettis to four for underdog
Robert Whittaker (15-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC) is the lone unanimous pick on the card. All nine of our staff members believe he’ll beat Rafael Natal.
And to open the main card, only two of our nine pickers believe Andre Fili (15-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) will top Yair Rodriguez (6-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC).
In the MMAjunkie reader consensus picks ... Jones (88%), Johnson (72%), Pettis (71%), Whittaker (77%) and Rodriguez (62%) have the edge.
Your Best Bets for UFC 197’s ‘Fight of the Night’
from MMA Odds Breaker
The ‘Fight of the Night’ plays that hold the most value are:
Pettis/Barboza +400 || 1u to win 4u
Anthony Pettis and Edson Barboza will throwdown in the featured bout on the evening’s Pay Per View card and this lightweight scrap is certainly expected to be a barn-burner. Pettis and Barboza are arguably the two best strikers in the UFC’s 155-pound division and fireworks will be expected when they square off inside the Octagon this evening. This is the kind of matchmaking fight fans dream of and I think it is one that stands a great chance of taking home the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ honors. Should they manage to take home the bonus, it would mean the very first time for the former UFC lightweight champion Pettis, while being the seventh for Barboza.
Rodriguez/Fili +400 || 1u to win 4u
Rodriguez vs Fili is an exciting showdown in the UFC’s featherweight division and these warriors are expected to deliver when they square off inside the Octagon this evening. They are both very exciting fighters who fight for the finish and I think that their stylistic match-up is a great recipe for fireworks, so I believe they stand a good shot taking home the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus. Should Rodriguez and Fili steal the show and earn the evening’s honors, it would mean the second time for Rodriguez, while being the first for Fili.
from MMA Odds Breaker
The ‘Fight of the Night’ plays that hold the most value are:
Pettis/Barboza +400 || 1u to win 4u
Anthony Pettis and Edson Barboza will throwdown in the featured bout on the evening’s Pay Per View card and this lightweight scrap is certainly expected to be a barn-burner. Pettis and Barboza are arguably the two best strikers in the UFC’s 155-pound division and fireworks will be expected when they square off inside the Octagon this evening. This is the kind of matchmaking fight fans dream of and I think it is one that stands a great chance of taking home the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ honors. Should they manage to take home the bonus, it would mean the very first time for the former UFC lightweight champion Pettis, while being the seventh for Barboza.
Rodriguez/Fili +400 || 1u to win 4u
Rodriguez vs Fili is an exciting showdown in the UFC’s featherweight division and these warriors are expected to deliver when they square off inside the Octagon this evening. They are both very exciting fighters who fight for the finish and I think that their stylistic match-up is a great recipe for fireworks, so I believe they stand a good shot taking home the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus. Should Rodriguez and Fili steal the show and earn the evening’s honors, it would mean the second time for Rodriguez, while being the first for Fili.
[h=2]Breakdowns form The Mixed Martial Analyst
Jon Jones (21-1)[/h]Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ *Former UFC LHW Champion
+ JUCO National Wrestling Champ
+ 9 KO victories
+ 7 first round finishes
+ 6 Submission wins
+ Creative & dynamic striker
+ Switches stances effectively
+ Superb dictation of range
^ Wide variety of techniques
+ Excellent takedown defense (95%)
^ Good hip awareness
+ Multiple takedown tools
+ Devastating ground striker
– Head dips low inside
– Head upright upon retreats
+/-Will play into opponents game
[h=2]Ovince St Preux (19-7)[/h]Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 10 KO victories
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 12 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Incredible athlete
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Left hand in particular
+ Hard left body kick
+ Improved & active footwork
^ Shows intelligent shifts
+ Underrated submission game
+ Shows get-up urgency off takedowns
^ Uses athleticism to explode up
– Struggles w/wrestling pressure
– Gas Tank bares watching
Summary:
The main event will feature the return of what is potentially the greatest fighter to ever step into the Octagon, as Jon “Bones” Jones will take on Ovince “OSP” St. Preux. Originally slated for a rematch with now-champion Daniel Cormier, a shakeup ensued soon after Cormier was reported to be injured. Stepping in on “Rocky”-esque terms, OSP will now look to turn the intangibles in his favor as he attempts to shock the world.
Whether it is unique talents like Jon Jones or matchups with on-paper deficits, it is very easy to get sucked into the stream of general narrative and be overly dismissive. After all, MMA has reminded us time-and-time again that is it truly a game of inches. Especially at heavier weights, power becomes the elephant in the room when it comes to intangibles. Despite being technically outgunned almost everywhere, St. Preux’s lone on-paper advantage is an important one, as he does have the knockout power and athleticism to close the show.
Although my official pick is clearly Jones, I will attempt to highlight the intricacies of OSP’s game that could see the light in this fight. Despite his supernatural ability dictate the terms of a cage fight, Jon Jones has the propensity to play into his opposition’s power and strengths. With his almost unparalleled athleticism and ability, Jon has yet to pay for playing with fire, although he has come close at times. For example, Jones often keeps his head upright upon exits and dips particularly low when reacting inside the pocket. Given these tendencies to traditionally open up uppercuts and winging punches, Jon will have to be especially careful as those are OSP’s most effective attacks.
The former champion should also have the advantages at range, but will need to respect Ovince’s offerings, even if they appear limited. Although Jon has a tremendous chin, St. Preux’s hard left body kick could sway momentum his way should it land to the liver. Even though OSP wields powerful left kicks & crosses, I feel his shifting hooks will serve him best. Displaying a shift variation referred to in traditional martial arts as “opening the gate“, the Southpaw will swing his lead foot backward into an orthodox stance. This deceptively changes the attack range and perceptions of OSP’s opposition. It also allows St. Preux to keep his accurate left hand in play, as we saw this in perfect depiction against Shogun Rua(I also refer to this technique in my Cruz-Dillashaw Breakdown as Cruz has been masterfully doing this for years).
If Jon Jones respects or takes away these weapons, he should be able to continue his trend of commanding action. Given St. Preux’s noted struggles with solid top position players, I would not be surprised to see Jon take this party to the floor. As one the most dangerous ground strikers in the sport, an early night would not surprise me should OSP’s explosive get-ups fail him. Although I wouldn’t mind being wrong on this one, I feel that no matter what the ring rust or intangibles are, Jon Jones will likely just need to “add water” for a victory here.
[h=3]Official Pick: Jones – Inside the distance[/h]
Jon Jones (21-1)[/h]Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 28 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 84.5″
- Last Fight: Decision win / Daniel Cormier (1-3-15)
- Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
- Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ *Former UFC LHW Champion
+ JUCO National Wrestling Champ
+ 9 KO victories
+ 7 first round finishes
+ 6 Submission wins
+ Creative & dynamic striker
+ Switches stances effectively
+ Superb dictation of range
^ Wide variety of techniques
+ Excellent takedown defense (95%)
^ Good hip awareness
+ Multiple takedown tools
+ Devastating ground striker
– Head dips low inside
– Head upright upon retreats
+/-Will play into opponents game
[h=2]Ovince St Preux (19-7)[/h]Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 33 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 79″
- Last Fight: Decision win / Rafael Cavalcante (2-6-15)
- Camp: Knoxville MMA (Tennessee)
- Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 10 KO victories
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 12 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Incredible athlete
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Left hand in particular
+ Hard left body kick
+ Improved & active footwork
^ Shows intelligent shifts
+ Underrated submission game
+ Shows get-up urgency off takedowns
^ Uses athleticism to explode up
– Struggles w/wrestling pressure
– Gas Tank bares watching
Summary:
The main event will feature the return of what is potentially the greatest fighter to ever step into the Octagon, as Jon “Bones” Jones will take on Ovince “OSP” St. Preux. Originally slated for a rematch with now-champion Daniel Cormier, a shakeup ensued soon after Cormier was reported to be injured. Stepping in on “Rocky”-esque terms, OSP will now look to turn the intangibles in his favor as he attempts to shock the world.
Whether it is unique talents like Jon Jones or matchups with on-paper deficits, it is very easy to get sucked into the stream of general narrative and be overly dismissive. After all, MMA has reminded us time-and-time again that is it truly a game of inches. Especially at heavier weights, power becomes the elephant in the room when it comes to intangibles. Despite being technically outgunned almost everywhere, St. Preux’s lone on-paper advantage is an important one, as he does have the knockout power and athleticism to close the show.
Although my official pick is clearly Jones, I will attempt to highlight the intricacies of OSP’s game that could see the light in this fight. Despite his supernatural ability dictate the terms of a cage fight, Jon Jones has the propensity to play into his opposition’s power and strengths. With his almost unparalleled athleticism and ability, Jon has yet to pay for playing with fire, although he has come close at times. For example, Jones often keeps his head upright upon exits and dips particularly low when reacting inside the pocket. Given these tendencies to traditionally open up uppercuts and winging punches, Jon will have to be especially careful as those are OSP’s most effective attacks.
The former champion should also have the advantages at range, but will need to respect Ovince’s offerings, even if they appear limited. Although Jon has a tremendous chin, St. Preux’s hard left body kick could sway momentum his way should it land to the liver. Even though OSP wields powerful left kicks & crosses, I feel his shifting hooks will serve him best. Displaying a shift variation referred to in traditional martial arts as “opening the gate“, the Southpaw will swing his lead foot backward into an orthodox stance. This deceptively changes the attack range and perceptions of OSP’s opposition. It also allows St. Preux to keep his accurate left hand in play, as we saw this in perfect depiction against Shogun Rua(I also refer to this technique in my Cruz-Dillashaw Breakdown as Cruz has been masterfully doing this for years).
If Jon Jones respects or takes away these weapons, he should be able to continue his trend of commanding action. Given St. Preux’s noted struggles with solid top position players, I would not be surprised to see Jon take this party to the floor. As one the most dangerous ground strikers in the sport, an early night would not surprise me should OSP’s explosive get-ups fail him. Although I wouldn’t mind being wrong on this one, I feel that no matter what the ring rust or intangibles are, Jon Jones will likely just need to “add water” for a victory here.
[h=3]Official Pick: Jones – Inside the distance[/h]
[h=2]Demetrious Johnson (23-2-1)[/h]Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ UFC Bantamweight Champion
+ Amateur MMA Titles
+ 4 KO victories
+ 9 Submission wins
+ 8 first round finishes
+ Incredible speed
+ Superb footwork
^ Angles & switches stances effectively
+ Intelligent coaches & corner
^ Adjusts well during & in between rounds
+ Unrivaled pace & pressure
^ High output / does not slow
+ Creative clinch game
^ Stifles, strikes, sets up takedowns
+ Excellent transition game
^ Seamlessly switches attacks
+ Never stops / recovers well
[h=2]Henry Cejudo (10-0)[/h]Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ Olympic Wrestling Gold Medalist
+ Bronze Gloves Boxing Champ
+ 3 KO victories
+ 1 Submission win
+ 4 first round finishes
+ Natural athleticism
+ Improved boxing
^ Favors L. hook-R. cross
+ Hard kicks & knees
+ Strong clinch game
^ Solid grips / hand fighting
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ 100% takedown defense
– Head high upon retreat
^ Counter availabilities
– Difficulty making flyweight
^ Gas tank bares watching
Summary:
The evening’s co-main event features a flyweight title affair, as Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson defends his belt against Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo. Widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters today, Demetrious Johnson will further cement his legacy with a successful defense against this highly credentialed opponent.
Winning Olympic Gold back in 2008, Henry Cejudo is no stranger to championship level competition. With the help of his boxing background, Cejudo has shown he is much more than a wrestler thus far in his short MMA career. Despite his accrued Octagon-time, we have seen a very limited view of Henry’s potential game, as I suspect he will need to lay all his cards on the table to win this particular title.
Consistently showing a stick & move curriculum, the former freestyle wrestler displays surprising fluidity as he rarely throws himself out of position. Favoring left hook-right cross setups, he often finishes his combinations with hard kicks to the body. Although Henry shows confidence in his striking, it is inside the clinch where he is truly most comfortable. Utilizing fundamental hand-fighting, Cejudo will subtly stifle his opposition’s offense inside as he delivers a healthy dose of hard knees.
Thwarting all takedown attempts from the clinch thus far in his career, Cejudo shows to strike particularly well off the break. That said, Henry will need to be careful himself when exiting that specific range. Often off of the break, Cejudo will retreat with his head upright. This habit, coupled with slightly lowered guard has made right-hands a consistent culprit in his Octagon appearances.
Despite said accumulation of Octagon time for Cejudo, we have yet to see him in any ground stanzas last for more than 45 seconds in the past 3-years. Unless Henry has been hiding a world class submission game, I suspect Mighty Mouse should have the on-paper edge on the ground. Stating as much in multiple interviews, Cejudo vows to keep Johnson’s wrestling out of this, as he has the credentials to back up such a proclamation.
That said, stopping what is the best transition game to grace our sport may be easier said than done. Technically sound & well timed, Johnson has taken down every opponent in the last three years. Even if Henry can stop his shots, he will still be subject to Mighty Mouse’s stellar(and often overlooked) clinch game. After being dropped in his first fight with John Dodson, Demetrious intelligently adjusted by taking the fight into the clinch. Using a myriad of grips to trips, or strikes into high-crotch hikes, Johnson has developed quite the taste for breaking his opposition in close.
As much as I could spend time pontificating on Mighty Mouse’s skillset, I ultimately see his consistent speed & pressure being the deciding factor. A fighter who is known for his struggle to make the flyweight limit, Cejudo tends to fade as the fight goes on, as this also reflects in his conservative outputs. Despite changing his diet and looking in phenomenal shape, I see another level of speed and movement in Might Mouse’s favor. Even if Cejudo gets off to a strong start, I can only imagine the energy output that he will need to sustain it. Although Henry has surfed big waves before, I am not so sure he stays above water against the endless sets that are coming his way.
[h=3]Official Pick: Johnson – Decision[/h]
- Height: 5’3″ Age: 29 Weight: 125 lbs Reach: 66″
- Last Fight: Decision win / John Dodson (9-5-15)
- Camp: AMC Pankration (Kirkland, WA)
- Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC Bantamweight Champion
+ Amateur MMA Titles
+ 4 KO victories
+ 9 Submission wins
+ 8 first round finishes
+ Incredible speed
+ Superb footwork
^ Angles & switches stances effectively
+ Intelligent coaches & corner
^ Adjusts well during & in between rounds
+ Unrivaled pace & pressure
^ High output / does not slow
+ Creative clinch game
^ Stifles, strikes, sets up takedowns
+ Excellent transition game
^ Seamlessly switches attacks
+ Never stops / recovers well
[h=2]Henry Cejudo (10-0)[/h]Staple info:
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 29 Weight: 125 lbs Reach: 64″
- Last Fight: Decision win / Jussier Formiga (11-21-15)
- Camp: Fight Ready (Phoenix, AZ)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ Olympic Wrestling Gold Medalist
+ Bronze Gloves Boxing Champ
+ 3 KO victories
+ 1 Submission win
+ 4 first round finishes
+ Natural athleticism
+ Improved boxing
^ Favors L. hook-R. cross
+ Hard kicks & knees
+ Strong clinch game
^ Solid grips / hand fighting
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ 100% takedown defense
– Head high upon retreat
^ Counter availabilities
– Difficulty making flyweight
^ Gas tank bares watching
Summary:
The evening’s co-main event features a flyweight title affair, as Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson defends his belt against Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo. Widely considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters today, Demetrious Johnson will further cement his legacy with a successful defense against this highly credentialed opponent.
Winning Olympic Gold back in 2008, Henry Cejudo is no stranger to championship level competition. With the help of his boxing background, Cejudo has shown he is much more than a wrestler thus far in his short MMA career. Despite his accrued Octagon-time, we have seen a very limited view of Henry’s potential game, as I suspect he will need to lay all his cards on the table to win this particular title.
Consistently showing a stick & move curriculum, the former freestyle wrestler displays surprising fluidity as he rarely throws himself out of position. Favoring left hook-right cross setups, he often finishes his combinations with hard kicks to the body. Although Henry shows confidence in his striking, it is inside the clinch where he is truly most comfortable. Utilizing fundamental hand-fighting, Cejudo will subtly stifle his opposition’s offense inside as he delivers a healthy dose of hard knees.
Thwarting all takedown attempts from the clinch thus far in his career, Cejudo shows to strike particularly well off the break. That said, Henry will need to be careful himself when exiting that specific range. Often off of the break, Cejudo will retreat with his head upright. This habit, coupled with slightly lowered guard has made right-hands a consistent culprit in his Octagon appearances.
Despite said accumulation of Octagon time for Cejudo, we have yet to see him in any ground stanzas last for more than 45 seconds in the past 3-years. Unless Henry has been hiding a world class submission game, I suspect Mighty Mouse should have the on-paper edge on the ground. Stating as much in multiple interviews, Cejudo vows to keep Johnson’s wrestling out of this, as he has the credentials to back up such a proclamation.
That said, stopping what is the best transition game to grace our sport may be easier said than done. Technically sound & well timed, Johnson has taken down every opponent in the last three years. Even if Henry can stop his shots, he will still be subject to Mighty Mouse’s stellar(and often overlooked) clinch game. After being dropped in his first fight with John Dodson, Demetrious intelligently adjusted by taking the fight into the clinch. Using a myriad of grips to trips, or strikes into high-crotch hikes, Johnson has developed quite the taste for breaking his opposition in close.
As much as I could spend time pontificating on Mighty Mouse’s skillset, I ultimately see his consistent speed & pressure being the deciding factor. A fighter who is known for his struggle to make the flyweight limit, Cejudo tends to fade as the fight goes on, as this also reflects in his conservative outputs. Despite changing his diet and looking in phenomenal shape, I see another level of speed and movement in Might Mouse’s favor. Even if Cejudo gets off to a strong start, I can only imagine the energy output that he will need to sustain it. Although Henry has surfed big waves before, I am not so sure he stays above water against the endless sets that are coming his way.
[h=3]Official Pick: Johnson – Decision[/h]
[h=2]Anthony Pettis (18-3)[/h]Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC LW Champion
+ Black Belt Tae Kwon Do
+ WEC Lightweight Title
+ 9 KO victories
+ 12 first round finishes
+ 6 Submission wins
+ KO Power
+ Athletic & Agile
+ Accurate shot selection
+/-Plays along the outside
+ Dangerous kick variety
^ Hard body kicks
+ Active guard/bottom game
+ Effective in scrambles
+ Excellent feint utilization
^ Intelligently reads & reacts
– Struggles with wrestling pressure
[h=2]Edson Barboza (16-4)[/h]Staple info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Multiple Muay Thai Titles
^ Record of 25-3 (22 by KO)
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 first round finishes
+ 1 Submission win
+ KO Power
+ Explosive fast-twitch striker
+ Devastating leg kicks
+ Accurate spin kicks
+ Lightning left switch-kick
+ Dangerous right hand
+/-Requires space to operate
^ Consistently circles out
+ Good takedown defense (84%)
+ Solid butterfly guard/get-ups
– Struggles when pressure fought
Summary:
Amongst the firefights that form the main card is an exciting matchup of the sports most touted strikers, as Anthony Pettis and Edson Barboza battle for style supremacy.
As many would suspect, I feel this affair will likely stay and be decided standing. Coming off a pair of losses to the division’s top-ranked pressure fighters, I am sure that Anthony will happily oblige a similarly natured striker. Also looking to rebound from a loss is Edson Barboza, who has shared similar struggles against pressure-style fighters.
Starting off on the feet, Pettis tends to circle the outside so he can create opportunities to read and react on his opposition. With this complimenting the Muay Thai stalkings of Barboza, I expect Edson to dictate the initial pace and space of this fight. Although aggressive when appropriate, Barboza is a primarily a measured striker who rarely throws himself out of position.
Edson, in my opinion, will have the firepower advantage on the feet, but his usual speed superiority may be more leveled considering his opposition. More importantly, Barboza will have to be especially careful not to be predictable. As efficient as the Brazilian is with his offense, his ethics also translate defensively into his standing guard. However, despite being effective with feints of his own, he does tend to bite regularly on his oppositions, as Edson will often show his hand with defensive parries.
Although there is nothing wrong with these traditional defenses, Anthony Pettis is one of the last fighters you want to give tells to in regards to reactions. Renown for his dynamic kicking attacks, it is Anthony’s ability to read his opponents reactions and setup precision shots that make him so dangerous. If Barboza is not mindful in mixing up his approach, he may fall into an inadvertent trap.
With Pettis possessing good lateral movement to dictate attacks, Barboza will have to be on his game to dissuade the former champions movement. Usually achieving his immobilization objectives via devastating right leg kicks, that option may not be as clear for Edson in this matchup. As many traditional martial artists or switch-stance fighters do, Pettis primarily operates out of a southpaw stance. I suspect he will follow his recent trend of fighting lefty, as it will especially limit Barboza’s favorite kicking technique.
The other patent kick the Brazilian is known for is his lightning fast left switch-kick. However, the southpaw stance also presents limitations with that kick as well. It falls under a similar rule-of-thumb of punches in regards to outside foot awareness. Not only will this be the key factor for this kick, but it will also determine the success of a large part of Edson’s offense. Despite struggling with the southpaw Michael Johnson, Barboza did show much-improved stance awareness and foot placement in his last fight. It will be interesting to see his approach to this matchup, as I feel his underrated right hands and accurate spinning sidekicks will serve him best against Anthony’s style.
If either fighter has more motive and shown tools to take this fight to the floor, it will likely be Pettis. Showing glimpses of takedown ability earlier in his career, it will be interesting to see if his recent stint at Jackson-Wink MMA and past few camps with Izzy Martinez will finally come to fruition. That said, I do not expect any ground stanzas to last long, as both men show solid butterfly guards and get-up urgency. Although my early pick for this matchup was Barboza, I ultimately feel that Pettis has more shown tools to accompany what I feel is a stylistic advantage.
[h=3]Official Pick: Pettis – Inside the distance[/h]
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 29 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 72″
- Last Fight: Decision loss / Eddie Alvarez (3-14-15)
- Camp: Roufusport (Milwaukee, WI)
- Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC LW Champion
+ Black Belt Tae Kwon Do
+ WEC Lightweight Title
+ 9 KO victories
+ 12 first round finishes
+ 6 Submission wins
+ KO Power
+ Athletic & Agile
+ Accurate shot selection
+/-Plays along the outside
+ Dangerous kick variety
^ Hard body kicks
+ Active guard/bottom game
+ Effective in scrambles
+ Excellent feint utilization
^ Intelligently reads & reacts
– Struggles with wrestling pressure
[h=2]Edson Barboza (16-4)[/h]Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 75″
- Last Fight: Submission loss / Tony Ferguson (12-11-15)
- Camp: Ricardo Almeida BJJ (New Jersey)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
- Risk Management: Good
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Multiple Muay Thai Titles
^ Record of 25-3 (22 by KO)
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 first round finishes
+ 1 Submission win
+ KO Power
+ Explosive fast-twitch striker
+ Devastating leg kicks
+ Accurate spin kicks
+ Lightning left switch-kick
+ Dangerous right hand
+/-Requires space to operate
^ Consistently circles out
+ Good takedown defense (84%)
+ Solid butterfly guard/get-ups
– Struggles when pressure fought
Summary:
Amongst the firefights that form the main card is an exciting matchup of the sports most touted strikers, as Anthony Pettis and Edson Barboza battle for style supremacy.
As many would suspect, I feel this affair will likely stay and be decided standing. Coming off a pair of losses to the division’s top-ranked pressure fighters, I am sure that Anthony will happily oblige a similarly natured striker. Also looking to rebound from a loss is Edson Barboza, who has shared similar struggles against pressure-style fighters.
Starting off on the feet, Pettis tends to circle the outside so he can create opportunities to read and react on his opposition. With this complimenting the Muay Thai stalkings of Barboza, I expect Edson to dictate the initial pace and space of this fight. Although aggressive when appropriate, Barboza is a primarily a measured striker who rarely throws himself out of position.
Edson, in my opinion, will have the firepower advantage on the feet, but his usual speed superiority may be more leveled considering his opposition. More importantly, Barboza will have to be especially careful not to be predictable. As efficient as the Brazilian is with his offense, his ethics also translate defensively into his standing guard. However, despite being effective with feints of his own, he does tend to bite regularly on his oppositions, as Edson will often show his hand with defensive parries.
Although there is nothing wrong with these traditional defenses, Anthony Pettis is one of the last fighters you want to give tells to in regards to reactions. Renown for his dynamic kicking attacks, it is Anthony’s ability to read his opponents reactions and setup precision shots that make him so dangerous. If Barboza is not mindful in mixing up his approach, he may fall into an inadvertent trap.
With Pettis possessing good lateral movement to dictate attacks, Barboza will have to be on his game to dissuade the former champions movement. Usually achieving his immobilization objectives via devastating right leg kicks, that option may not be as clear for Edson in this matchup. As many traditional martial artists or switch-stance fighters do, Pettis primarily operates out of a southpaw stance. I suspect he will follow his recent trend of fighting lefty, as it will especially limit Barboza’s favorite kicking technique.
The other patent kick the Brazilian is known for is his lightning fast left switch-kick. However, the southpaw stance also presents limitations with that kick as well. It falls under a similar rule-of-thumb of punches in regards to outside foot awareness. Not only will this be the key factor for this kick, but it will also determine the success of a large part of Edson’s offense. Despite struggling with the southpaw Michael Johnson, Barboza did show much-improved stance awareness and foot placement in his last fight. It will be interesting to see his approach to this matchup, as I feel his underrated right hands and accurate spinning sidekicks will serve him best against Anthony’s style.
If either fighter has more motive and shown tools to take this fight to the floor, it will likely be Pettis. Showing glimpses of takedown ability earlier in his career, it will be interesting to see if his recent stint at Jackson-Wink MMA and past few camps with Izzy Martinez will finally come to fruition. That said, I do not expect any ground stanzas to last long, as both men show solid butterfly guards and get-up urgency. Although my early pick for this matchup was Barboza, I ultimately feel that Pettis has more shown tools to accompany what I feel is a stylistic advantage.
[h=3]Official Pick: Pettis – Inside the distance[/h]
[h=2]Rafael Natal (21-6-1)[/h]Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ BJJ Black Belt
+ Multiple Grappling Accolades
+ 8 Submission wins
+ 8 first round finishes
+ 3 KO victories
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Will switch stances
^ Hard kicks from each side
+ Underrated wrestling
^ Improved shots & takedowns
+ Excellent top game
^ Actively strikes & passes
+/-Aggressive entries
– Strikes retract low
^ Counter availabilities
[h=2]Robert Whitaker (15-4)[/h]Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ TUF Smashes Winner
+ Black Belt Karate/Hapkido
+ Purple Belt BJJ
+ 5 first round finishes
+ 8 KO victories
+ 5 Submission wins
+ KO Power/heavy hands
+ Quickly & deceptively blitzes
+ Unique angles & off-beat attacks
^ Disrupts opponents rhythm
+ Good head movement / footwork
+ Underrated wrestling
^ 92% takedown defense
+ Improved grappling
+/-Aggressive entries
Summary:
In the midst of the main card madness, middleweights Rafael “Sapo” Natal and Robert “The Reaper” Whitaker will compete for that next crucial step in their careers.
Coming off a three-round thriller with Uriah Hall last November, the #7-ranked Whitaker has come into his own since moving to middleweight. Riding on solid momentum amongst an impressive winning streak, “The Reaper” will likely find himself in the division’s top fights should he emerge victorious here.
Another quietly rising contender, Rafael Natal has steadily strung together some scalps of his own in his latest run. Now lurking just outside the top-ten in the division, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion will seek to make a statement and earn his spot amongst the mainstays at middleweight.
With both fighters consistently pushing a high pace, expect an action filled affair as neither man is easily discouraged. Although Natal is aggressive in nature, he has shown a tendency to run his offense with an outside circling curriculum. Coupled with the occasional switch-of-stance, Rafael has made himself harder to hit while encouraging exchanges to take place more toward his terms.
With improved straight punches and hard kicks from both sides serving as the bulk of Sapo’s attacks, it is his ability to read and play with range that keeps him afloat in the striking realm. Despite the Brazilian’s improvements, Natal will need to mind his entries as he still shows to retract his hands low off strikes. Although his senses inside have often kept him safe, these habits could be costly against someone like Whitaker, who counters with conviction.
Coming from a traditional martial arts base, Robert Whitaker has developed into one of the most dangerous strikers in the division. Using a combination of speed, accuracy, and a fluid economy of movement, The Reaper will deceptively blitz off different angles. Like many Karate based strikers, Whitaker will show a certain speed to draw his opponent into a false sense of security, only to disrupt the perceived timing with off-beat strikes.
Given how each fighters styles align, I feel this striking matchup favors Whitaker. That said, Natal’s ability to change levels and shoot will be a looming threat standing. If the Brazilian can time the young Kiwi coming in, he could take this fight to the ground where he should have the on-paper advantage. However, Whitaker has some underrated wrestling chops of his own, as he boasts one of the best takedown defense rates in the division at 92%.
If Natal manages to get this fight on the mat, I do not feel that Whitaker will be completely out of his element. Robert also has demonstrated improvements on the floor from his defense, get-up ability, and overall ground IQ. Never the less, Sapo still possesses a pressure game that could steal this fight from Whitaker by making it an ugly affair. But if Robert’s renown defenses can keep him upright, I feel his stylistic advantages will come to light and give Rafael a reason to fear The Reaper.
[h=3]Official Pick: Whitaker – Inside the distance[/h]
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 76″
- Last Fight: TKO win / Kevin Casey (1-30-16)
- Camp: Renzo Gracie BJJ (NY/Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Moderate
Supplemental info:
+ BJJ Black Belt
+ Multiple Grappling Accolades
+ 8 Submission wins
+ 8 first round finishes
+ 3 KO victories
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Will switch stances
^ Hard kicks from each side
+ Underrated wrestling
^ Improved shots & takedowns
+ Excellent top game
^ Actively strikes & passes
+/-Aggressive entries
– Strikes retract low
^ Counter availabilities
[h=2]Robert Whitaker (15-4)[/h]Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 25 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 73.5″
- Last Fight: Decision win / Uriah Hall (11-14-15)
- Camp: PMA Martial Arts (Australia)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ TUF Smashes Winner
+ Black Belt Karate/Hapkido
+ Purple Belt BJJ
+ 5 first round finishes
+ 8 KO victories
+ 5 Submission wins
+ KO Power/heavy hands
+ Quickly & deceptively blitzes
+ Unique angles & off-beat attacks
^ Disrupts opponents rhythm
+ Good head movement / footwork
+ Underrated wrestling
^ 92% takedown defense
+ Improved grappling
+/-Aggressive entries
Summary:
In the midst of the main card madness, middleweights Rafael “Sapo” Natal and Robert “The Reaper” Whitaker will compete for that next crucial step in their careers.
Coming off a three-round thriller with Uriah Hall last November, the #7-ranked Whitaker has come into his own since moving to middleweight. Riding on solid momentum amongst an impressive winning streak, “The Reaper” will likely find himself in the division’s top fights should he emerge victorious here.
Another quietly rising contender, Rafael Natal has steadily strung together some scalps of his own in his latest run. Now lurking just outside the top-ten in the division, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion will seek to make a statement and earn his spot amongst the mainstays at middleweight.
With both fighters consistently pushing a high pace, expect an action filled affair as neither man is easily discouraged. Although Natal is aggressive in nature, he has shown a tendency to run his offense with an outside circling curriculum. Coupled with the occasional switch-of-stance, Rafael has made himself harder to hit while encouraging exchanges to take place more toward his terms.
With improved straight punches and hard kicks from both sides serving as the bulk of Sapo’s attacks, it is his ability to read and play with range that keeps him afloat in the striking realm. Despite the Brazilian’s improvements, Natal will need to mind his entries as he still shows to retract his hands low off strikes. Although his senses inside have often kept him safe, these habits could be costly against someone like Whitaker, who counters with conviction.
Coming from a traditional martial arts base, Robert Whitaker has developed into one of the most dangerous strikers in the division. Using a combination of speed, accuracy, and a fluid economy of movement, The Reaper will deceptively blitz off different angles. Like many Karate based strikers, Whitaker will show a certain speed to draw his opponent into a false sense of security, only to disrupt the perceived timing with off-beat strikes.
Given how each fighters styles align, I feel this striking matchup favors Whitaker. That said, Natal’s ability to change levels and shoot will be a looming threat standing. If the Brazilian can time the young Kiwi coming in, he could take this fight to the ground where he should have the on-paper advantage. However, Whitaker has some underrated wrestling chops of his own, as he boasts one of the best takedown defense rates in the division at 92%.
If Natal manages to get this fight on the mat, I do not feel that Whitaker will be completely out of his element. Robert also has demonstrated improvements on the floor from his defense, get-up ability, and overall ground IQ. Never the less, Sapo still possesses a pressure game that could steal this fight from Whitaker by making it an ugly affair. But if Robert’s renown defenses can keep him upright, I feel his stylistic advantages will come to light and give Rafael a reason to fear The Reaper.
[h=3]Official Pick: Whitaker – Inside the distance[/h]
[h=2]Yair Rodriguez (6-1)[/h]Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ TUF LATAM 1 Winner
+ Black Belt Tae Kwon Do
+ 2 KO victories
+ 1 Submission win
+ 3 first round finishes
+ Athletic & explosive movement
^ Covers distance quickly
+ Dynamic kicking attack
^ Variates stances & styles
+ Improved wrestling
^ Shows solid hip awareness
+ Creative ground game
+ Active & attacking guard
+ Excellent leg dexterity
^ Retains guard well
+/-Rarely strikes from left side
– Hands slightly low/head often upright
[h=2]Andre Fili (15-3)[/h]Staple info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Piano Key Belt in Joe-Jitsu
+ 8 KO victories
+ 3 Submission wins
+ 6 first round finishes
+ Aggressive pressure & pace
+ Improved footwork
^ Angles well off attacks
+ Accurate L. Hook-R. Cross
+ Dangerous head kicks
+ Underrated wrestling
^ Solid defense & hip awareness
+ Active & attacking guard
^ Looks to sweep or stand
+ Excellent takedown instincts
^ Changes level & times well
– Hands slightly low/head often upright
Summary:
Kicking off the main card in Las Vegas is a fantastic featherweight fight between Yair “Pantera” Rodriguez and Andre “Touchy” Fili. Since winning the first season of TUF Latin America, Yair has managed to stay undefeated thus far in his UFC run. Often compared to Anthony Pettis or Jon Jones, there is no shortage of hype on the Mexican prospect as he attempts to continue his growth as a fighter. Standing in his way is another developing talent, as Andre Fili will look to take some shine from Rodriguez and parlay it into his own.
No matter where this fight takes place, expect fast action as each fighter consistently pushes the pace throughout contests. Despite Yair being the more dynamic & explosive striker, Andre is the more aggressive man who arguably pulls from a deeper arsenal. Displaying improved footwork and movement, Fili will angle off his attacks instead of his previous tendency of crowding punches. However, Andre tends to keep a slightly-low standing guard, that coupled with his natural aggression, has traditionally shown to leave counters available.
Counter striking, in particular, is where I see the road of this matchup beginning to split in two. With the more visually impressive style, Yair Rodriguez translates his creativity, and Tae Kwon Do based striking seamlessly into the cage. Showing no fear in variating his high-risk kicks, it can be very easy to “not see the trees through the forest” if you will, as values can get tricky when trying to decipher between flashiness & effectiveness. That said, footwork will be a key factor for Yair standing as his athleticism shines through in his ability to control and cover distance. These attributes coupled with a possible speed advantage could set him up nicely to counter Andre’s advances, except countering is something that the Mexican’s game lacks, as he primarily looks to set and kick.
As a Tae Kwon Black Belt myself, I can truly appreciate Yair’s technique applications, but I also immediately noticed his lack of hands and habitual one-sided ways. Despite the constant stance switches and dazzling displays, Rodriguez seldom throws any strikes off of his left side. With forms of his left-sided offense including lackadaisical paws for punches and the occasional left-kick accentuation, the Mexican barely clears 10-attempts off his left side per round(not including ground strikes). This single-sided approach makes Rodriguez’s stance switching crucial, as it opens up options/gives the illusion of a dual-sided repertoire.
For example, instead of utilizing a left switch kick to encourage opposition to his right side, Yair will instead elect to throw spin kicks(a la Conor McGregor) to corral his opponent to the power side. Like most young prospects, I expect Rodriguez to continue and demonstrate fight-to-fight improvements, especially training between Jackson-Wink MMA & Izzy-Style Wrestling. However, if Yair fails to counter or capitalize on Andre’s aggression, it could cost him on his exits as he tends to keep his head high upon retreating. With Fili’s natural acumen in forward striking, we could see his accurate left hook or right head kick come into play here.Despite Yair’s noted efforts of improving his wrestling under Izzy Martinez, I feel that Fili may surprise most in being a more effective wrestler. Although Rodriguez shows superb hip awareness & defensive wrestling(especially off the fence), his lack of strike setups has really hurt his shot percentage. Who does have an underrated shot, is Fili, as the Team Alpha Male-trained fighter fluidly changes levels and intelligently times his opposition. Although Andre’s takedown ability & fight IQ may be a key factor for his success, he will need to mind the active ground game of Yair.
Yair’s creativity comes through especially strong on the floor, as he strikes me as an improvisational fighter. Leaning heavily on his leg dexterity and hip awareness, Yair likes to utilize his length to lock up his opposition in corner/closed guards, or by other unorthodox means. Even though Rodriguez’s experimentations have made for interesting entanglements, they have also revealed his level of positional awareness, and possible lack of fundamental understanding. Fearlessly flowing in and out of trouble spots, Yair’s athleticism & resiliency have primarily kept him out of danger thus far. Once Rodriguez gains a better grasp of himself and his fundamentals, he will be a scary, scary fighter to behold. But just as Max Holloway checked Andre’s ascension, I believe Fili will pay that lesson forward here.
[h=3]Official Pick: Fili – Decision[/h]
- Height: 5’11” Age: 22 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 71″
- Last Fight: Decision win / Dan Hooker (10-3-15)
- Camp: Izzy-Style Wrestling (Illinois)
- Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ TUF LATAM 1 Winner
+ Black Belt Tae Kwon Do
+ 2 KO victories
+ 1 Submission win
+ 3 first round finishes
+ Athletic & explosive movement
^ Covers distance quickly
+ Dynamic kicking attack
^ Variates stances & styles
+ Improved wrestling
^ Shows solid hip awareness
+ Creative ground game
+ Active & attacking guard
+ Excellent leg dexterity
^ Retains guard well
+/-Rarely strikes from left side
– Hands slightly low/head often upright
[h=2]Andre Fili (15-3)[/h]Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 25 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 74″
- Last Fight: KO win / Gabriel Benitez (11-21-15)
- Camp: Team Alpha Male (Sacramento, CA)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Moderate
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Piano Key Belt in Joe-Jitsu
+ 8 KO victories
+ 3 Submission wins
+ 6 first round finishes
+ Aggressive pressure & pace
+ Improved footwork
^ Angles well off attacks
+ Accurate L. Hook-R. Cross
+ Dangerous head kicks
+ Underrated wrestling
^ Solid defense & hip awareness
+ Active & attacking guard
^ Looks to sweep or stand
+ Excellent takedown instincts
^ Changes level & times well
– Hands slightly low/head often upright
Summary:
Kicking off the main card in Las Vegas is a fantastic featherweight fight between Yair “Pantera” Rodriguez and Andre “Touchy” Fili. Since winning the first season of TUF Latin America, Yair has managed to stay undefeated thus far in his UFC run. Often compared to Anthony Pettis or Jon Jones, there is no shortage of hype on the Mexican prospect as he attempts to continue his growth as a fighter. Standing in his way is another developing talent, as Andre Fili will look to take some shine from Rodriguez and parlay it into his own.
No matter where this fight takes place, expect fast action as each fighter consistently pushes the pace throughout contests. Despite Yair being the more dynamic & explosive striker, Andre is the more aggressive man who arguably pulls from a deeper arsenal. Displaying improved footwork and movement, Fili will angle off his attacks instead of his previous tendency of crowding punches. However, Andre tends to keep a slightly-low standing guard, that coupled with his natural aggression, has traditionally shown to leave counters available.
Counter striking, in particular, is where I see the road of this matchup beginning to split in two. With the more visually impressive style, Yair Rodriguez translates his creativity, and Tae Kwon Do based striking seamlessly into the cage. Showing no fear in variating his high-risk kicks, it can be very easy to “not see the trees through the forest” if you will, as values can get tricky when trying to decipher between flashiness & effectiveness. That said, footwork will be a key factor for Yair standing as his athleticism shines through in his ability to control and cover distance. These attributes coupled with a possible speed advantage could set him up nicely to counter Andre’s advances, except countering is something that the Mexican’s game lacks, as he primarily looks to set and kick.
As a Tae Kwon Black Belt myself, I can truly appreciate Yair’s technique applications, but I also immediately noticed his lack of hands and habitual one-sided ways. Despite the constant stance switches and dazzling displays, Rodriguez seldom throws any strikes off of his left side. With forms of his left-sided offense including lackadaisical paws for punches and the occasional left-kick accentuation, the Mexican barely clears 10-attempts off his left side per round(not including ground strikes). This single-sided approach makes Rodriguez’s stance switching crucial, as it opens up options/gives the illusion of a dual-sided repertoire.
For example, instead of utilizing a left switch kick to encourage opposition to his right side, Yair will instead elect to throw spin kicks(a la Conor McGregor) to corral his opponent to the power side. Like most young prospects, I expect Rodriguez to continue and demonstrate fight-to-fight improvements, especially training between Jackson-Wink MMA & Izzy-Style Wrestling. However, if Yair fails to counter or capitalize on Andre’s aggression, it could cost him on his exits as he tends to keep his head high upon retreating. With Fili’s natural acumen in forward striking, we could see his accurate left hook or right head kick come into play here.Despite Yair’s noted efforts of improving his wrestling under Izzy Martinez, I feel that Fili may surprise most in being a more effective wrestler. Although Rodriguez shows superb hip awareness & defensive wrestling(especially off the fence), his lack of strike setups has really hurt his shot percentage. Who does have an underrated shot, is Fili, as the Team Alpha Male-trained fighter fluidly changes levels and intelligently times his opposition. Although Andre’s takedown ability & fight IQ may be a key factor for his success, he will need to mind the active ground game of Yair.
Yair’s creativity comes through especially strong on the floor, as he strikes me as an improvisational fighter. Leaning heavily on his leg dexterity and hip awareness, Yair likes to utilize his length to lock up his opposition in corner/closed guards, or by other unorthodox means. Even though Rodriguez’s experimentations have made for interesting entanglements, they have also revealed his level of positional awareness, and possible lack of fundamental understanding. Fearlessly flowing in and out of trouble spots, Yair’s athleticism & resiliency have primarily kept him out of danger thus far. Once Rodriguez gains a better grasp of himself and his fundamentals, he will be a scary, scary fighter to behold. But just as Max Holloway checked Andre’s ascension, I believe Fili will pay that lesson forward here.
[h=3]Official Pick: Fili – Decision[/h]
Preliminary Card Predictions
Recommended Plays
Fantasy MMA Picks
High Tier Picks:
-Jon Jones
-Demetrious Johnson
-Anthony Pettis
Low Tier Picks:
-Andre Fili
-Chris Kelades
-Clint Hester
Pieces for your parlay:
-Danny Roberts
-Jon Jones
-Demetrious Johnson
Props worth looking at (5Dimes)
-Johnson/Cejudo – Over: -190 (2 Units)
-Jones/St. Preux – Under: -225 (2 Units)
-Robert Whitaker – by Decision: +266 (1 Unit)
-Andre Fili – Inside the distance +383 (1 Unit)
Fights to avoid:
-Esparza vs Lima
-Pettis vs Barboza
-Vick vs Franca
- Kelades def. Pettis
- Roberts def. Steele
- Lima def. Esparza
- Vick def. Franca
- East def. Harris
- Hester def. De Lima
- Lee def. Escudero
Recommended Plays
Fantasy MMA Picks
High Tier Picks:
-Jon Jones
-Demetrious Johnson
-Anthony Pettis
Low Tier Picks:
-Andre Fili
-Chris Kelades
-Clint Hester
Pieces for your parlay:
-Danny Roberts
-Jon Jones
-Demetrious Johnson
Props worth looking at (5Dimes)
-Johnson/Cejudo – Over: -190 (2 Units)
-Jones/St. Preux – Under: -225 (2 Units)
-Robert Whitaker – by Decision: +266 (1 Unit)
-Andre Fili – Inside the distance +383 (1 Unit)
Fights to avoid:
-Esparza vs Lima
-Pettis vs Barboza
-Vick vs Franca
UFC 197 pre-fight facts:
Jones owns or is on the verge of owning several light-heavyweight and overall UFC records
Jones returns to competition for the first time since Jan. 2, 2015. The 477-day layoff is the longest of his more than eight-year career.
Saint Preux has earned 14 of his 19 career victories by stoppage. That includes five of his seven wins under the UFC banner.
Saint Preux’s five stoppage victories in UFC light-heavyweight competition since 2013 are the most in the division.
Saint Preux registered just the second Von Flue choke submission in UFC history when he tapped out Nikita Krylov at UFC 171. No other UFC fighter has successfully finished a fight with the technique since namesake Jason Von Flue submitted Alex Karalexis at UFC Fight Night 3.
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Johnson competes in his 11th UFC flyweight bout, the most appearances in divisional history.
Johnson’s seven consecutive UFC title defenses are most among current titleholders.
Johnson’s seven consecutive title defenses are tied with Jose Aldo for the fourth longest defense streak in UFC history behind Anderson Silva (10), Georges St-Pierre (nine) and Jones (eight).
Johnson’s nine-fight UFC winning streak in flyweight competition is the longest active streak in the division. It’s also the second longest winning streak among active UFC fighters behind Jones (12).
Johnson’s nine victories in UFC flyweight competition are the most in divisional history.
Johnson’s average fight time of 18:43 in UFC competition is the longest in company history.
Johnson’s four stoppage victories in UFC flyweight competition are tied for most in divisional history.
Johnson’s three submission victories in UFC flyweight competition are tied with John Moraga for most in divisional history.
Johnson is the only fighter in UFC history to earn a kimura victory in a title fight. He accomplished the feat against Chris Cariaso at UFC 178.
Johnson’s submission of Kyoji Horiguchi at the 4:59 mark of Round 5 at UFC 186 stands as the latest stoppage in a UFC fight.
Johnson is the only fighter in UFC history to record 10 or more takedowns in three separate bouts.
Johnson has been awarded five fight-night bonuses for UFC flyweight bouts, the most in divisional history.
Cejudo is one of three Olympic gold medalists to fight in the UFC, along with Kevin Jackson and Mark Schultz. He accomplished the feat in freestyle wrestling at the 2008 Summer Olympics.
Cejudo is the only Olympic gold medalist to fight in the UFC since the organization was purchased by parent company Zuffa.
Cejudo is the first Olympic gold medalist to fight for a UFC championship.
Cejudo’s three-fight UFC winning streak in flyweight competition is tied for the third longest active streak in the division behind Johnson (nine) and Joseph Benavidez (five).
Cejudo has earned all four of his UFC victories by decision.
Cejudo has earned his past six victories by decision after he stopped his opponent inside the distance in his first four pro bouts.
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Anthony Pettis (18-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC) enters the event on the first two-fight losing skid of his career. He hasn’t earned a victory since December 2014.
Pettis’ three knockout victories in UFC/WEC competition stemming from a kick to the head or body are tied for fourth most in combined promotional history behind Vitor Belfort (four), Donald Cerrone (four) and Edson Barboza (four).
Pettis is the only fighter in UFC history to win consecutive UFC lightweight title fights by submission.
Edson Barboza’s (16-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC) five knockout victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for the third most in divisional history behind Melvin Guillard (seven) and B.J. Penn (six).
Barboza’s eight knockdowns landed in UFC lightweight competition are tied for second most in divisional history behind Guillard (13).
Barboza’s four knockout victories stemming from kicks are tied with Cerrone and Belfort for most in UFC history.
Barboza is the only fighter in UFC history to earn knockout finishes stemming from head, body and leg kicks.
Barboza is the only fighter in UFC history to earn two knockout victories stemming from leg kicks. He used the technique to stop Rafaello Oliveira at UFC 162 and Mike Lullo at UFC 123.
Robert Whittaker (15-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC) is 3-0 since he moved up to the UFC middleweight division in November 2014.
Whittaker has earned 12 of his 15 career victories by stoppage.
Whittaker’s takedown defense rate of 92 percent in UFC competition is the sixth highest in UFC history.
Rafael Natal’s (22-5-1 MMA, 9-4-1 UFC) four-fight UFC winning streak in middleweight competition is the third longest active streak in the division behind Yoel Romero (seven) and Luke Rockhold (five).
Natal has earned seven of his nine UFC victories by decision.
Natal’s 36 takedowns landed in UFC middleweight competition are most in divisional history.
Yair Rodriguez (6-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC) has earned all three of his UFC victories by decision.
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Sergio Pettis (13-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC), 22, is the youngest active fighter in the UFC flyweight division.
Pettis is 1-1 since he dropped to the UFC flyweight division in March 2015.
Pettis has earned all four of his UFC victories by decision.
Dominique Steele (14-6 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is one of eight fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout stemming from a slam takedown. He accomplished the feat against Dong Hyun Kim at UFC Fight Night 79.
Carla Esparza (10-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) returns to competition for the first time since losing the UFC strawweight title to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in March 2015.
James Vick (8-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC), who stands 6-3, is the tallest lightweight on the UFC roster.
Vick‘s 58-second submission win over Ramsey Nijem is the third fastest in history for a debuting UFC lightweight. Diego Ferreira‘s 38-second tap-out of Colton Smith at UFC Fight Night 44 leads the category.
Glaico Franca (13-3 MMA, 1-0 UFC) has earned 12 of his 13 career victories by stoppage.
Walt Harris (7-4 MMA, 0-3 UFC) returns to competition for the first time since Nov. 4, 2014. The 536-day layoff is the longest of his more than five-year career.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (13-3-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) has earned 10 of his 13 career victories by knockout. Nine of those stoppages have come in the first round.
De Lima has earned both of his UFC victories by first-round knockout in a total fight time of 2:19.
De Lima recorded the second fastest knockout by a debuting UFC heavyweight with his 20-second finish of Richardson Moreira at the TUF Brazil 3 Finale. Todd Duffee holds the record with his seven-second knockout of Tim Hague at UFC 102.
Clint Hester (11-5 MMA, 4-2 UFC) moves up to the UFC light heavyweight division after spending his first six octagon appearances at middleweight.
Hester is one of 14 fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout stemming from a standing elbow strike. He accomplished the feat against Bristol Marunde at The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale.
Efrain Escudero (24-10 MMA, 5-6 UFC) is 2-2 since he returned to the UFC for a second stint in September 2014.
Jones owns or is on the verge of owning several light-heavyweight and overall UFC records
Jones returns to competition for the first time since Jan. 2, 2015. The 477-day layoff is the longest of his more than eight-year career.
Saint Preux has earned 14 of his 19 career victories by stoppage. That includes five of his seven wins under the UFC banner.
Saint Preux’s five stoppage victories in UFC light-heavyweight competition since 2013 are the most in the division.
Saint Preux registered just the second Von Flue choke submission in UFC history when he tapped out Nikita Krylov at UFC 171. No other UFC fighter has successfully finished a fight with the technique since namesake Jason Von Flue submitted Alex Karalexis at UFC Fight Night 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
Johnson competes in his 11th UFC flyweight bout, the most appearances in divisional history.
Johnson’s seven consecutive UFC title defenses are most among current titleholders.
Johnson’s seven consecutive title defenses are tied with Jose Aldo for the fourth longest defense streak in UFC history behind Anderson Silva (10), Georges St-Pierre (nine) and Jones (eight).
Johnson’s nine-fight UFC winning streak in flyweight competition is the longest active streak in the division. It’s also the second longest winning streak among active UFC fighters behind Jones (12).
Johnson’s nine victories in UFC flyweight competition are the most in divisional history.
Johnson’s average fight time of 18:43 in UFC competition is the longest in company history.
Johnson’s four stoppage victories in UFC flyweight competition are tied for most in divisional history.
Johnson’s three submission victories in UFC flyweight competition are tied with John Moraga for most in divisional history.
Johnson is the only fighter in UFC history to earn a kimura victory in a title fight. He accomplished the feat against Chris Cariaso at UFC 178.
Johnson’s submission of Kyoji Horiguchi at the 4:59 mark of Round 5 at UFC 186 stands as the latest stoppage in a UFC fight.
Johnson is the only fighter in UFC history to record 10 or more takedowns in three separate bouts.
Johnson has been awarded five fight-night bonuses for UFC flyweight bouts, the most in divisional history.
Cejudo is one of three Olympic gold medalists to fight in the UFC, along with Kevin Jackson and Mark Schultz. He accomplished the feat in freestyle wrestling at the 2008 Summer Olympics.
Cejudo is the only Olympic gold medalist to fight in the UFC since the organization was purchased by parent company Zuffa.
Cejudo is the first Olympic gold medalist to fight for a UFC championship.
Cejudo’s three-fight UFC winning streak in flyweight competition is tied for the third longest active streak in the division behind Johnson (nine) and Joseph Benavidez (five).
Cejudo has earned all four of his UFC victories by decision.
Cejudo has earned his past six victories by decision after he stopped his opponent inside the distance in his first four pro bouts.
---------------------------------------------------------
Anthony Pettis (18-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC) enters the event on the first two-fight losing skid of his career. He hasn’t earned a victory since December 2014.
Pettis’ three knockout victories in UFC/WEC competition stemming from a kick to the head or body are tied for fourth most in combined promotional history behind Vitor Belfort (four), Donald Cerrone (four) and Edson Barboza (four).
Pettis is the only fighter in UFC history to win consecutive UFC lightweight title fights by submission.
Edson Barboza’s (16-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC) five knockout victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for the third most in divisional history behind Melvin Guillard (seven) and B.J. Penn (six).
Barboza’s eight knockdowns landed in UFC lightweight competition are tied for second most in divisional history behind Guillard (13).
Barboza’s four knockout victories stemming from kicks are tied with Cerrone and Belfort for most in UFC history.
Barboza is the only fighter in UFC history to earn knockout finishes stemming from head, body and leg kicks.
Barboza is the only fighter in UFC history to earn two knockout victories stemming from leg kicks. He used the technique to stop Rafaello Oliveira at UFC 162 and Mike Lullo at UFC 123.
Robert Whittaker (15-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC) is 3-0 since he moved up to the UFC middleweight division in November 2014.
Whittaker has earned 12 of his 15 career victories by stoppage.
Whittaker’s takedown defense rate of 92 percent in UFC competition is the sixth highest in UFC history.
Rafael Natal’s (22-5-1 MMA, 9-4-1 UFC) four-fight UFC winning streak in middleweight competition is the third longest active streak in the division behind Yoel Romero (seven) and Luke Rockhold (five).
Natal has earned seven of his nine UFC victories by decision.
Natal’s 36 takedowns landed in UFC middleweight competition are most in divisional history.
Yair Rodriguez (6-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC) has earned all three of his UFC victories by decision.
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Sergio Pettis (13-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC), 22, is the youngest active fighter in the UFC flyweight division.
Pettis is 1-1 since he dropped to the UFC flyweight division in March 2015.
Pettis has earned all four of his UFC victories by decision.
Dominique Steele (14-6 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is one of eight fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout stemming from a slam takedown. He accomplished the feat against Dong Hyun Kim at UFC Fight Night 79.
Carla Esparza (10-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) returns to competition for the first time since losing the UFC strawweight title to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in March 2015.
James Vick (8-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC), who stands 6-3, is the tallest lightweight on the UFC roster.
Vick‘s 58-second submission win over Ramsey Nijem is the third fastest in history for a debuting UFC lightweight. Diego Ferreira‘s 38-second tap-out of Colton Smith at UFC Fight Night 44 leads the category.
Glaico Franca (13-3 MMA, 1-0 UFC) has earned 12 of his 13 career victories by stoppage.
Walt Harris (7-4 MMA, 0-3 UFC) returns to competition for the first time since Nov. 4, 2014. The 536-day layoff is the longest of his more than five-year career.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (13-3-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) has earned 10 of his 13 career victories by knockout. Nine of those stoppages have come in the first round.
De Lima has earned both of his UFC victories by first-round knockout in a total fight time of 2:19.
De Lima recorded the second fastest knockout by a debuting UFC heavyweight with his 20-second finish of Richardson Moreira at the TUF Brazil 3 Finale. Todd Duffee holds the record with his seven-second knockout of Tim Hague at UFC 102.
Clint Hester (11-5 MMA, 4-2 UFC) moves up to the UFC light heavyweight division after spending his first six octagon appearances at middleweight.
Hester is one of 14 fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout stemming from a standing elbow strike. He accomplished the feat against Bristol Marunde at The Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale.
Efrain Escudero (24-10 MMA, 5-6 UFC) is 2-2 since he returned to the UFC for a second stint in September 2014.
