UFC 197 - Saturday 4/23 - Info / Predictions / Odds / Chatter

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197 Predictions
from On The Mat





Jon Jones vs. Ovince St. Preux

OSP is extremely gifted athlete, but Jones is the most gifted athlete to ever grace the Octagon. Look for Jones to pick him apart standing up, take him down and beat him up and put OSP in for a long night. Jones by submission round two.



Demetrius Johnson vs. Henry Cejudo

DJ wins this fight plain and simple. Yes, Cejudo has Olympic level wrestling but it does not matter. This is a fighter who has had trouble making 125, but at the same time does not have use of the IV anymore which means he will be weaker. Even if DJ loses a round in the beginning the end will be Cejudo’s outdoing as he cannot take DJ in that later rounds. DJ by submission round 4.



Anthony Pettis vs. Edson Barboza

Pettis is known for flashing striking, but all that pales in comparison to Barboza as he is one of the more potent strikers that can attack from anywhere. That is not to say that Pettis does not have a chance, but if he comes out like he did against RDA or Eddie Alvarez he will be eaten alive. Barboza has been on fire as of late despite some losses. I think he come back with a vengeance in this fight. Barboza by decision.



Robert Whittaker vs. Rafael Natal

Whittaker should be fighting someone higher up in the division considering he was set to fight Michael Bisping who is not set to maybe fight for the title and he is coming off a big win over Uriah Hall and beat him striking. Still, you can never count out Natal who has come sort of stalwart of the division and will be going into his 15th UFC fight. Natal is at a career best four fight winning streak but has always faltered when facing better strikers he cannot take to the ground. They are about even physically but Whittaker is younger and stronger from what he has shown in his fights. Whittaker by TKO in the 3rd.



Carla Esparza vs. Juliana Lima

This fight goes down one of two ways, Lima uses her size and reach advantage to beat Esparza up or Esparza takes her down and uses her ground game to win. It also comes down to how Esparza fights after an extended layoff. If the injuries and time off make her rusty then she may have a hard time in this fight. If she comes back at championship level then she will have no issues realistically. Esparza by decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197 Predictions
from Cage Rank




Jones By Decision
Johnson By Decision
Pettis By Submission - Round 2
Natal By Decision
Fili By KO - Round 2
Pettis By Decision
Esparza By Decision
Roberts By KO - Round 3
Vick By Submission - Round 3
East By KO - Round 2
Hester By KO - Round 3
Escudero By Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197 predictions: FOX Sports 1 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 2
from Patrick L Stumberg - MMA Mania





125 lbs.: Sergio Pettis vs. Chris Kelades

Sergio Pettis (13-2) returned to Flyweight following a 3-1 start to his UFC career, only to suffer a knockout loss to Ryan Benoit. "The Phenom" righted the ship in Oct. 2015 with a decision over former title challenger Chris Cariaso.

He has stopped six opponents overall, although his last four wins have all come by decision.


Following his debut win over Patty Holohan, Chris Kelades (9-2) stepped right into the deep end for a clash with top prospect Ray Borg that saw "The Greek Assassin" tap to a third-round keylock. He returned to action in July 2015 with a split decision over The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 competitor Chris Beal, his third win in four fights.

He has stopped five opponents overall, three via submission.

Pettis’ ceiling might be determined by his chin -- he’s an excellent striker, terrific grappler and an underrated wrestler. He has also been dropped repeatedly throughout his time in UFC, including against middling punchers in Alex Caceres and Matt Hobar.

Luckily, Pettis has Kelades fairly well outclassed in every area. Barring another unfortunate chin-checking, he should be able to soundly dominate whether he wishes to strike or grapple.

Prediction: Pettis via unanimous decision





115 lbs.: Carla Esparza vs. Juliana Lima

Carla Esparza (10-3) -- who left Invicta as their Strawweight champion -- ran through the competition on TUF 20 before submitting Rose Namajunas on the Finale to earn the UFC title. Her first title defense pitted her against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who battered her from pillar to post en route to a second-round knockout.

"Cookie Monster" replaces Jessica Aguilar on less than one month’s notice.

Juliana Lima (8-2) opened her UFC career against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who handed the Brazilian her second loss in three fights. "Ju Thai" has won twice since and was booked to face Jessica Penne at UFC Fight Night 67 before the latter stepped up for a short-notice title fight.

She stands four inches taller than Esparza at 5’5".

This is one of those fights that’s interesting in theory, but will likely suck to watch. Both women are primarily wrestlers without significant striking skills. There’s a good chance we’ll wind up with protracted clinch exchanges interspersed with inconsequential stand up.

Esparza’s the more experienced of the two against high-level competition and likely has the overall grappling edge. "Cookie Monster" should win enough striking exchanges and spend enough time in favorable positions to edge the decision.

Prediction: Esparza via unanimous decision





170 lbs.: Danny Roberts vs. Dominique Steele

A five-fight win streak, capped off by a brutal knockout of veteran Jim Wallhead, brought Danny Roberts (12-1) to UFC, where he debuted against American Top Team’s Nathan Coy. Though a striker by trade, Roberts demonstrated his grappling chops with a first-round submission of "Soulforce."

He has knocked out and submitted five opponents apiece.

Dominique Steele (14-6) -- who has fought in Strikeforce and Bellator MMA in the past -- joined UFC as a late-notice replacement for Antonio Braga Neto and promptly got his block knocked off by Zak Cummings. Things went a little better for "Non-Stop Action Packed" in Nov. 2015, when he scored a knockout slam on Dong Hyun "No, Not That One" Kim.

He will give up two inches of height to the 5’10" Roberts.

This should be fun while it lasts, which isn’t going to be very long. Steele’s aggressive and entertaining, but nowhere near durable enough to withstand the kind of punishment that Roberts can dish out. "Non-Stop Action Packed" has already been knocked out four times as a professional.

You can be game all day, but it doesn’t matter if your body doesn’t hold up. Expect a fun few minutes of action before Roberts clips Steele with something nasty for the early finish.

Prediction: Roberts via first-round technical knockout





155 lbs.: James Vick vs. Glaico Franca

The run for James Vick (8-0) on TUF: 15 came to a halt at the hands of Michael Chiesa, who stopped the lanky Texan with ground-and-pound in the semifinals. He’s since won four straight in UFC, most recently submitting top Aussie prospect Jake Matthews in May 2015.

He stands three inches taller than the 6’0" Glaico Franca (13-3).

As Team Shogun’s second Lightweight pick, "Nego" submitted his way through TUF: "Brazil 4" to face Fernando Bruno at UFC 190. Though it wasn’t the most entertaining fight, Franco ultimately locked up his favored rear-naked choke in the last 30 seconds for his tenth win in 11 fights.

He’s stopped 10 opponents overall, five each by knockout and submission.

I’d still like to see Vick against a powerhouse striker before I tab him as a future contender, but he’s acquitted himself quite well against other grapplers. Franca, though young and strong, ostensibly doesn’t present any difficulties that Vick didn’t already overcome against Matthews.

On the feet, Vick’s sheer length ought to be enough to keep him out of trouble even considering his general lack of stopping power. Depending on how desperate Franca gets for the takedown, expect Vick to either sprawl-and-brawl his way to a decision or lock up that guillotine he’s fond of.

Prediction: Vick via unanimous decision






Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record 2016: 41-30-1

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197 Predictions: Part 1
from Paul O'Dea - Pundit Arena





Sergio Pettis vs Chris Kelades (Flyweight)

With both Sergio and Anthony Pettis on the card, they will be hoping for a better outcome than the last time when both fighters lost at UFC 185. Sergio (13-2) has come back since that defeat to Ryan Benoit to beat Chris Cariaso, and looks like he is improving all the time. With all of his wins in the UFC coming by decision, Sergio will be looking to buck that trend with a stoppage victory.

Kelades (9-2) has a record of 2-1 under the UFC banner, similar to Pettis, with both wins coming by decision over Chris Beal and Paddy Holohan. Kelades will look to get Pettis to the ground as the Canadian will feel he has the advantage on the mat.

Prediction: Pettis





Yair Rodriguez vs Andre Fili (Featherweight)

Two exciting prospects coming up in the featherweight division in both Rodriguez and “Touchy” Fili have provided us with exciting fights since they entered the UFC. Rodriguez (6-1) is a flashy fighter who has won all three of his UFC bouts thus far, but has yet to get a highlight reel KO he looks so capable of.

“Touchy” Fili (15-3), is a Team Alpha Male prospect with had a mixed bag of results since his introduction to the organization, but has certainly fought tougher competition than his opponent. With a first round TKO over Gabriel Benitez in his last bout, he will be flying high and hoping to keep his momentum going.

Prediction: Fili





Robert Whittaker vs Rafael Natal (Middleweight)

Robert Whittaker (15-4) has completely turned his career around in the last two years. Coming off the back of two losses, Whittaker headed in to his June 2014 bout with Mike Rhodes needing a win to keep his UFC dreams alive. He beat Rhodes, kicking off a four fight win streak culminating in a decision victory over Uriah Hall in November. He will be looking to continue his march up the rankings with a win over another top opponent.

Natal (21-6-1) has an identical record over the past six fights, winning four on the bounce after back to back losses. One of his wins even came over the aforementioned Uriah Hall. Natal is a 15 fight veteran of the UFC now, and he has fought some of the toughest guys in the middleweight division. Looking to usurp Whittaker in the top 10 of the rankings, Natal will likely be aiming to finish the brash Aussie.

Predictions: Whittaker

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197 “Prelim Spotlight”: Pettis vs Kelades Breakdown
from Dan Tom - MMA Latest News





Serving as the preliminary headliner on FOX Sports 1, Sergio Pettis meets Chris Kelades in an exciting flyweight affair. Carrying a last name that is synonymous with his older brother, Sergio Pettis is steadily carving a path of his own. Dealing with developmental trials that most young fighters experience, Sergio’s potential & growth remain a strong narrative in this budding fighters career. With another tough test ahead of Pettis, he will need to show a strong and complete game as he collides with Chris Kelades.

A tough Canadian with a solid grappling base, Chris Kelades has seemingly made a career resurgence when most lighter-weight fighters start to demonstrate declines. Possessing a non-stop pace and durability to boot, the scrappy Kelades has a style that seems to stifle superior fighters and a heart that earns him fans as well as laterounds. With an unwritten moniker of no easy fights in the UFC, Kelades will now be tasked with his fourth straight prospect that is 10-years his junior.

Starting off on the feet, I expect Pettis to have the speed & technique advantage. Although Kelades has shown to make strides in his striking since moving shop to American Top Team, his aggression and sometimes suspect strike retraction leaves the Canadian open for counters. Against an accurate counter striker like Pettis, Chris will have to be mindful whenever entering space.

I believe the key factor in this fight will be each fighters approach to distance management. As seen in Sergio’s previous fights, the young phenom does exceptionally well when allowed the space and comfort to operate. Demonstrating improved applications of stance-switching footwork, Pettis particularly shines in his precision on pulling & returning.

What was surprising upon reviewing Sergio’s UFC career, was that the majority of his opposition spent most of their rounds allowing the fight to take place where Pettis is most comfortable. Both grappling & striking based fighters showed success in ground exchanges with Sergio but failed to continue to push the fight into those terms. That said, Pettis will now face one of the most relentless grapplers in the division.

Although he is surprisingly unsuccessful in his on-paper takedown attempts, the never-say-die attitude of Kelades seemingly & consistently finds a way to get fights to the floor. Even when experiencing said failed shots, Chris does an intelligent job of parlaying these engagements into his favor by immediately working for reversals and sweeps (Nogueira most notably used this method during his run in Pride, where he would use failed double-legs to dive into half-guard and get going from there).

Although I give Kelades an edge in ground fighting, Sergio is no slouch on the floor. Utilizing fantastic leg dexterity, Pettis displays an active and attacking guard. As far as ground defense goes, Sergio does a great job at hand and grip fighting, which is a highly underrated aspect of grappling. That said, the young phenom shows a surprising lack of urgency in the scramble. Even when he is controlling positions against a striker like Chris Cariaso, we saw Sergio swept as he succeeded to the bottom with little attempt to stand for the rounds remainder.

A coach once told me that scrambles win fights, and in MMA, that is especially applicable to the lighter divisions. Diligently working with Izzy-Style Wrestling, and even spending a short stint at Jackson-Wink MMA, I am sure Sergio is making the necessary efforts & improvements to his game. That said, the takedown defense and transitional IQ of Pettis will certainly be put to the task here. Unlike his previous opponents, Kelades possesses consistent pressure fighting that could be the variable in potentially unwinding Sergio’s on-paper advantages.

With durability and a non-stop pace being a common thread for upset performances, I suspect we may see similar intangibles come to life in this matchup. Although I recommend caution in playing the deserved favorite, this crossroads fight should be all action and well worth your time.


Official Pick: Kelades – Decision




Preliminary Card Predictions


Kelades def. Pettis
Roberts def. Steele
Lima def. Esparza
Vick def. Franca
East def. Harris
Hester def. De Lima
Lee def. Escudero

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197: Betting Predictions
from Justin Hartling - Odds Shark





Jon Jones vs Ovince Saint Preux

Jon Jones makes his long awaited return to the Octagon and he seems hungrier than ever. Things came easy for Jones throughout his career, but everything derailing following his troubles with the law has seemingly refocused ‘Bones’ on being the best to ever fight.

Jones is excellent at every aspect of the fight game, but his best physical attribute comes thanks to his freakishly long reach. His long arms give him the ability to chip away at fighters throughout the bout while periodically moving in to hit devastating shots in close, usually with his elbows.

One of the most intriguing aspects for Jones has always been his versatility. Throughout his career we have seen him challenge his opponents to their strengths and still end up victorious. This, of course, was most notable when he outwrestled and outgrinded Daniel Cormier.

Ovince Saint Preux is not a simple tune up like most want to believe he is. Sure, the former Tennessee Volunteer is green, but his natural power and athleticism is not something to be taken lightly. OSP has one of the most powerful left hands in the world and will look to uncork that as his first option. When he does get his opponent in trouble, he will just load up on that powerful left hand and shell his opponent without mercy.

Aside from being green, Saint Preux has a questionable gas tank. He has only been in one five round fight in his career, against Ryan Bader, and we watched him slowly become tired as the bout went on. OSP will be looking to end this fight early, as he always is, especially considering Jones’ phenomenal cardio and proven track record in five round bouts.

Jones may be the best fighter to ever enter the world of MMA. His versatility and ability to excel in seemingly every aspect of the game has made him untouchable in his career. OSP has a chance, but in the same way any fighter has a chance to win any fight. Jones will need to watch out for Saint Preux’ big left hook early on, but if this fight makes it out of the second round then OSP’s chances are pretty much zero.

PICK: Jon Jones (-550)




Demetrious Johnson vs Henry Cejudo


This is pretty much it for Demetrious Johnson. With a win over Henry Cejudo he will have completely and utterly cleaned out the flyweight division.

Mighty Mouse is able to win a fight in nearly every aspect, but is at his best when utilizing his perfectly timed striking. Johnson can seamlessly switch between orthodox and southpaw stances and has the ability to strike with virtually zero warning. This is all because of his phenomenal footwork, which may be the best in the UFC.

Johnson has incredibly efficient wrestling and has one of the more underrated double leg takedowns in the sport. However, this part of his game could be effectively off limits with Cejudo’s wrestling credentials and strength. If the fight does make it to the ground, Johnson’s aggression and submission skills (nine career submission victories) could easily overwhelm Cejudo.

Cejudo, an Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling, excels when he is able to bully fights. ‘The Messenger’ is abnormally strong and performs some of his best work when he can physically hold his opponent against the cage and wear them down. That being said, his wrestling skills have not exactly translated to fantastic results in the Octagon, which was extremely prominent in his inability to land a takedown against Chico Camus.

The striking game is still fairly basic for Cejudo, which isn’t a bad thing, as he has used his boxing skills to slip and rip with tremendous success in the UFC. The child of Phoenix, Arizona is excellent at throwing combos and having an innate ability to know which strike to throw to close out exchanges.

I’ll be perfectly frank — I don’t think anybody can beat Mighty Mouse right now. That’s not to say it won’t happen (we all pretty much thought the same of Ronda Rousey), but a lot of things will need to go right for Cejudo. The former Olympian is still making a gargantuan weight cut to 125lbs and that physically draining task could take hold come the championship rounds. Cejudo has all the potential in the world, but I just think he is too green to get past one of the smartest fighters on the planet.

PICK: Demetrious Johnson (-400)




Anthony Pettis vs Edson Barboza

Anthony Pettis enters this fight in desperate need of a win, as he tries to avoid a third consecutive loss. Pettis struggles when he gets pressured, when he is unable to dictate the pace of the fight and when his amazing kickboxing skills are neutralized by a suffocating attack. Though it has become apparent in his most recent losses to Rafael dos Anjos and Eddie Alvarez, it was the same technique Clay Guida used when he handed Pettis a loss in his first UFC bout.

That being said, Pettis is a highlight finish waiting to happen. His diverse repertoire of strikes makes him a constant threat standing on his feet, especially with his fantastic footwork and movement. Showtime also has amazing BJJ skills with eight of his career wins coming via submission and is especially deadly working from his back.

Edson Barboza is a brilliant technical striker and has some of the deadliest leg kicks in the UFC. Barboza has ended two of his UFC bouts with leg kicks and uses them as a marvellous tool to slow down his opponent, which helps hide some of his own cardio issues. The Brazilian has the power to end almost any of his opponents, but can struggle when pressured as you can see in his bout with Michael Johnson.

All and all, this should be a fight for Pettis to get back on track. A fight against an opponent that doesn’t necessarily offer the same wrestling-based pressure threat that his previous opponents have. That’s not to say it will be easy for Pettis, as both him and Barboza work best while striking with space. Both fighters could end up at a bit of a stalemate when striking, but Pettis is much more varied and talented in all other aspects of the game.

PICK: Anthony Pettis (-175)





Rafael Natal vs Robert Whittaker

Despite the relative lack of fanfare, Robert Whittaker is one of the best young fighters in the middleweight division. The Aussie comes into this fight with Rafael Natal winning all three of his fights since moving up to middleweight.

Any concerns that his power would be offset after shifting up to 185lbs have been put to rest with two of his three fights at middleweight ending via T/KO. Whittaker is an extremely well-rounded fighter with black belts in Hapkido, Karate and a purple belt in BJJ. The Aussie’s ability to land powerful strikes with nearly no wind up is special and plays a big role into his capability to end fights in devastating fashion.

Natal is a veteran fighter who will look to get the fight to the ground so he can use his black belt BJJ skills and look for the submission. Nine of Natal’s 21 career victories have come via submission, but he has not picked up a submission victory in his past eight fights. The Brazilian is still a little raw on his feet, but has natural knockout power in his hands.

Natal is coming into the fight slower and overmatched on his feet. The Brazilian’s only real chance to win this fight is to get Whittaker on the ground where his experience and skill will shine. However, Whittaker’s wrestling defense has been getting better with every fight and it doesn’t seem likely that this fight will go where he doesn’t want it.

PICK: Robert Whittaker (-325)




Andre Fili vs Yair Rodriguez

A couple of exciting featherweight prospects open the main card when Andre Fili and Yair Rodriguez step into the Octagon.

Rodriguez comes in with the media machine pushing him hard following his victory in The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America. His unique style of striking relies heavily on his black belt in taekwondo, so expect to see bizarre kicks coming from every angle. Despite his exciting striking style, Rodriguez has still not picked up a stoppage win in the UFC and has yet to face any quality opponents.

Fili tends to enjoy the standup fight, but does so primarily with his punches. The Sacramento-native is flashy and aggressive — a trademark of fighters from Team Alpha Male, but unlike many of his counterparts from the TAM he is a striker rather than a grappler.

Distance is the key to this fight. Rodriguez would rather keep space and allow himself the room to use his kicks, while Fili will likely be looking to close the distance and strike with punches.

This has all the makings of a potential fight of the night, but the biggest factor will be the often ignore wrestling skills of Rodriguez. If Fili is able to close the distance, you should expect Rodriguez to shoot for the double-leg and suffocate FIli.

PICK: Yair Rodriguez (-160)

 

[NewYorkKnight]

197 Predictions: Jon Jones vs. Ovince Saint Preux
from UFC VIP Experience




When Cormier dropped out of UFC 197, we needed a replacement…and fast. Thankfully, Ovince Saint Preux came in last minute and stepped up to fight the former light heavyweight champ Jon Jones for the interim belt. This doesn’t give Saint Preux the best odds, but he still has some qualities that make him absolutely dangerous.

Jones opened as the 7-1 favorite (now a 5-1 favorite) against Saint Preux. Some think Saint Preux is biting off a little more than he can chew here. It’s impressive for him to take on Jon Jones on three weeks’ notice, but his advantages won’t really help against Jones.

Jones has the obvious advantages – reach, striking, MMA wrestling and ability to go the distance. He dominates in almost every category. Saint Preux is no joke, however. He has proven his ability to time big strikes well and to close the distance quickly while doing so. Plus, as a former NCAA Division 1 football player, he’s one of the best athletes in the UFC. But is that enough to take down Jon Jones? Needless to say, the odds are against him.

The question we are all wondering though is how Jon Jones will look upon his return. From what we’ve seen based on his training and conditioning, Jones is more dedicated and determined than ever. He’s bigger and stronger than before. Yes, he’s had his fair share of legal incidents since UFC 182. Will this affect his performance in the ring? Probably not. After all, it’s Jon Jones. Does anything ever phase him?

If Jones can take Saint Preux to the mat, he will have the clearest path to victory, no doubt. His ground striking is detrimental. It will be interesting though to see how – or if – his actual ground game has improved.

In our opinion, Jones is the smart pick. The odds favor Jones – and for good reason. He has the advantage in almost every category, even though he’s been out of the ring for over a year. Right now, fans are betting that Jones will absolutely stomp Saint Preux, as demonstrated by the current odds. Even so, there’s a lot to look forward to about this fight, and we are excited to see Jon Jones return.

Jones even stated that Saint Preux is to be respected a serious challenge:

"I'm definitely not looking at Ovince as a tune up fight," Jones said. "I'm looking at him as a different challenge. One that should be respected. He's a young fighter in the sport and he has the opportunity of a lifetime ahead of him. I'm sure he's going to give it all he's got to capitalize on that and do something with it."



Prediction: Jon Jones wins via TKO in the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] Round

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197 Preview and Predictions
from Mike Schultz - Sports Interaction




Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jon Jones

Jon Jones has been inactive in the Octagon for a while, but he’s still considered one of the best fighters to have ever graced the cage, so even if he’s not firing all cylinders, he should be able to finish Ovince Saint Preux. Saint Preux is extremely strong, however, and if he can take advantage of Jones’ rustiness, he might have a shot to surprise everyone with a KO win. The current odds have Jon Jones as a heavy favorite, but as we’ve seen in the very recent past, the UFC is famous for huge underdog upsets.

Prediction: Jones by KO




Henry Cejudo vs. Demetrious Johnson

Demetrious Johnson has defeated every flyweight fighter that he’s faced and he has set his sights on Anderson Silva’s all-time title defense record. As the -385 favorite, most are assuming that he’ll get one step closer to that goal with this battle against Henry Cejudo. Cejudo could be one of the more challenging opponents Johnson has faced, and his wrestling skills will come in handy if he can get Demetrious on the ground.

Prediction: Johnson by Decision




Edson Barboza vs. Anthony Pettis

This fight between two fast, explosive strikers should be a lot of fun to watch. Former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (18-4) and Edson Barboza (16-4) are both coming off losing streaks, so the chance to redeem themselves, as well as the chance for the winner to get a shot at the title will be what makes this particular battle Fight of the Night material. Pettis is favored to win at -185.

Prediction: Pettis by Decision




Rafael Natal vs. Robert Whittaker

The UFC 197 middleweight division fight will pit Robert Whittaker against Rafael Natal. Whittaker is ranked eighth and is on a four-fight winning streak and Natal is ranked twelfth is also on a four consecutive win run. Whittaker will probably make quick work of Natal, using his formidable strength and speed on his feet.

Prediction: Whittaker by KO

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux - Idiot's Guide Preview to the Fox Sports/Fight Pass Prelims
from David Castillo - Bloody Elbow





Flyweight Sergio Pettis vs. Chris Kelades

Younger brother of Anthony Pettis, Sergio, has had an up and down run in the UFC. At 22 years of age, this is completely allowed, and normal. At 4-2 in the UFC, there's nothing to be ashamed of. While losses to Ryan Benoit and Alex Cacares look kind of awkward at first, they were tough stylistic clashes that Pettis has kind of outrun in some respects. He's improved enough to avoid judgment for them in the same way I can't be held accountable to listening to Jon Secada's Just Another Day over and over in grade school. There goes my desert rock cred.

Taking on Kalades is a slight step down for different reasons. Kelades is a strange amalgam of raw traits. His striking needs proper coaching, and his grappling needs more finesse. instead everything he does looks improvised, like playing jazz with the bones of half eaten chicken dinners.

Sergio is nothing like his brother. Just because he likes to punch doesn't make him similar to Anthony otherwise both would be on Andy Anderson's family tree. Where Anthony is about velocity in intervals, Sergio is about selective volume. He can't end the fight with one quick strike, so he opts for multitudes when he's comfortable with his distance. Part of the issue with Pettis early is that he was dealing with high octane fighters pressuring his low key, clockwork striking. Sergio has upped the tempo of his striking gradually. As a result, he looked much improved against Cariaso. However, if Kaledes fights the first round the way Cariaso fought his last, Pettis could still struggle with his style, where you really have to be ultra dynamic at some facet of the game (Sergio isn't there yet, but he's got the tools to be in the upper echelon).





Welterweight Danny Roberts vs. Dominique Steele

Kind of a strange fight to have so high up on the card in terms of welterweight hierarchy, but then you look at their styles and say "oh right". Steele and Roberts are only similar in archetype. Steele, despite his nickname, isn't the kind of brawler Roberts would welcome otherwise. Steele relies on a patient-ish approach to boxing, looking for that quick left hook of his while sort of lumbering forward with the rest of his strikes. The slam KO over Dong Hyun Kim is not the kind of thing you should expect often because Steele's wrestling isn't up to snuff. Roberts, meanwhile, has a much cleaner game on the feet. From his southpaw stance, he likes to gauge distance with his feet, moving around a lot, pouncing with a jab into a dangerous overhand left. His somewhat rote approach hurts him in the clinch, and in the scrambles, but I don't see Steele as capable of closing the distance with the necessary vigor.





Women's Strawweight Carla Esparza vs. Juliana Lima

Esparza finally returns back into the octagon after getting the royal beatdown against Joanna Jedrzejczyk for an opponent who herself lost to Joanna. Looking at the MMAth, Lima went the distance in a mostly one sided affair while Esparza just got plain dummied. Esparza really displayed limitations that have always been there. In truth, her style would give most women in the division a ton of trouble. However, Lima is one of the few who is not one of those women. She has an aggressive grappling style that is not only equal to Esparza, but far better in positioning for submissions. She actually had Joanna in a little bit of duress in their last round, which tells you a lot about Lima's durability. Despite being 34, she only has 10 pro bouts, and has a kind of youthful exuberance to her game. If Carla would at least pretend to be well rounded (she has better boxing than her quickness to avoid would indicate), I think this fight would be a bit more competitive. As is, I like Lima's jab, and crisp punches. She's not a striker by any means, but she's defensively sound, and aggressive in her wheelhouse. Should be a tough fight for both women, but Lima should have more tools to work with.





Lightweight Glaico França vs. James Vick

Vick is undefeated thus far in his UFC career. To be honest, I'm kind of shocked. He's a good fighter who happens to be a threat in most facets of the game, but he's the kind of fighter that can be exploited given his aggressiveness. His quality of competition is at least part of the explanation. His frame masks some of his deficiencies, so it'll be interesting to see how he deals with an equally big framed Franca. Franca has been cutting the proverbial teeth in Brazil with an arsenal of skills. Franca isn't a dynamic striker, but he's strong with his punches, and does good work using them for clinch entries and takedowns. From top control, he's effective at not only neutralizing potential offense, but at generating his own. Because this is a rare fight where Vick won't look dramatically bigger than his opponent, Vick's limitations will be further on display.





Heavyweight Walt Harris vs. Cody East

Cody East has a colorful history, which is another way of saying he has a criminal history that involves rape, battery, and child abuse. Perhaps now's not the time to revisit philosophical discussions about rehabilitation versus punishment, and how exactly we should define American's correctional system, but at worst, the UFC shouldn't be surprised when a city says "No MMA" and points to people like East, who have the potential to represent the company. I can only guess that the UFC vets their fighters with 12 year old myspace pages. Other stuff aside, East is the better fighter here, with a strong wrestling pedigree and the kind of quick strikes to effectively deal with pressure fighters. Harris is kind of that pressure fighter, opting for big left hands and a left kick to dominate the action on the feet but without the polish to do so against craftier fighters.





Light Heavyweight Marcos Rogério de Lima vs. Clint Hester

Of his 13 wins, Lima has knocked out 10 of his opponents in that span, and he's done in and out of his weight class, including Heavyweight. His hands are dangerous in ways hard to count, and fighting a career middleweight may either be slaughter fodder, or something else. The good thing for Lima is that Hester often has trouble really cycling his offense. Hester has the tools for a better fighter than the current incarnation, but he struggles dealing with transition offense and defense. If Hester isn't forced to react, he'll sit on his punches, and wrestling, which work well in combination with one another.





Lightweight Efrain Escudero vs. Kevin Lee

I always like to imagine a universe where Phillipe Nover's hype wasn't derailed so soon. Where once upon a time Nover continued to be hyped as the next Anderson Silva/Georges St. Pierre after winning TUF. At least then we might have gotten actual memes. Instead Escudero is the universe we got; a fighter who struggled mentally early in his career, and has never really blossomed into anything more. He's functionally the same fighter who won TUF. He's not consistent enough with his improvements to have them make a tangible difference, which is why I'm not even thinking twice about picking the 23 year old All American wrestler with a growing arsenal of fight weapons.





Predictions

Pettis by Decision
Roberts by TKO, round 2
Lima by Decision
Franca by Decision
East by TKO, round2
de Lima by TKO, round 3
Lee by RNC, round 3

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197 predictions: Ovince Saint Preux worth a play against Jon Jones
from Hugh Citron - Sporting News





Jones (21-1) is basically undefeated; his only loss came on a disqualification when, in a dominating top position, he was called for an illegal 12-6 elbow against Matt Hamill. He has never been beaten for the belt. Jones still has to be regarded as one of, if not the best, pound-for-pound fighter in all of MMA and should be able to control the fight against Saint Preux with his wrestling if he chooses to use that tactic.

Saint Preux (19-7) had a nice four-fight winning streak going until being totally controlled by Ryan Bader in August 2014. He had no answer for Bader’s wrestling and takedowns. Consecutive first-round KO wins after that against solid light heavyweights Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Patrick Cummins got Saint Preux back in contention for a big fight, but he came up short in a third-round submission loss to top contender Glover Teixeira. An easy decision win over Rafael Cavalcante in February should have Saint Preux confident going into Saturday's bout. He got this great opportunity after current champion Daniel Cormier pulled out of his highly anticipated fight with Jones on April 1.

As always, laying big favorites in MMA fights is a risky proposition and big upsets are sometimes hard to see coming. Can Jones be the same fighter he was before his year-plus layoff and with having so many distractions? At 6-1 I’m not willing to risk my money to find out. Saint Preux has always shown serious potential and his loss to Teixeira doesn’t look that bad considering the roll Teixeira is on right now. If Saint Preux can keep this fight standing and turn it into a striking match, his chances improve dramatically. Saint Preux has KO power in both hands and getting 4-1 seems like a reasonable price for a good fighter to maybe pin a loss on Jones, who could be looking ahead.


Take Saint Preux to shock the MMA world and upset Jones.




A 5-1 favorite I won’t play against is also on the card Saturday night. Flyweight champion Demetrious "Mighty Mouse” Johnson will face second-ranked and undefeated Henry Cejudo. Johnson has defended his title seven times since winning it in September 2012 and has been as dominant a champion as the UFC has ever had. Cejudo is 10-0 but hasn’t faced the best competition or anywhere near the fighters Johnson has on his resume.

Look for Johnson to grind out another title defense, but at -500 or higher by fight time I’ll just be an observer for this one.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Fun fact ...


Mighty Mouse already won a UFC title before Cejudo's first pro MMA fight in 2013.

Granted, Cejudo won Olympic Gold in 2008

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197 Predictions: Part 2
from Paul O'Dea - Pundit Arena






Anthony Pettis vs Edson Barboza (Lightweight)

Former lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis (18-4) is coming off two losses in a row for the first time in his career, and will be looking to get his career back on track. ‘Showtime’ is one of the most exciting strikers in the UFC, and holds exceptional victories over Donald Cerrone, Ben Henderson, Joe Lauzon and Gilbert Melendez.
He will be happy to be fighting someone who will stand and trade with him so he can showcase his arsenal of strikes.

Barboza (16-4) will be making his 15th walk to the octagon on Saturday night and after losing two of his last three finds himself badly in need of a win, similar to Pettis. Most noted for his sensational spinning wheel kick knockout of Terry Etim at UFC 142, Barboza’s kicks are feared throughout the Lightweight division, and he will be looking to stand and bang with the former Champion.

Prediction: Pettis




Demetrious Johnson vs Henry Cejudo (Flyweight Title)

Johnson (23-2-1) will defend his Flyweight Title for the eight time on Saturday night, and is now just three defences away from Anderson Silva’s all time record of 10. Undefeated in his last 10 fights, Johnson has looked unstoppable at Flyweight, beating every challenger put in front of him on his way to making history.

Cejudo (10-0) will provide one of ‘Mighty Mouse’s sterner tests to date though as a former Olympic gold medallist wrestler and undefeated fighter. His wrestling is just a base from which Cejudo built a set of skills for MMA that under normal circumstances would see him undoubtedly hold a gold strap. He just so happens to be fighting in Johnson’s division.

Prediction: Cejudo





Jon Jones vs Ovince St Preux (Interim Light Heavyweight Title)


The return of Jon Jones (21-1) has been one full of controversy and anticipation. With run-ins with the law and Cormier having to withdraw through injury, nothing ever seems to go as planned when Jones is atop the card. Jones will look to make a statement in his comeback fight, having not fought since he defeated DC in January ’15.

OSP (19-7) was a surprise announcement as Jones’ next opponent, but he will look to make the most of it, with an interim title on the line. Perhaps a step up too quick in competition for Knoxville MMA prospect, OSP is facing a determined Jones. OSP however, recently knocked out Shogun Rua in just 34 seconds after taking the fight on short notice, and therefore does pose a very real threat to ‘Bones’.

Prediction: Jones

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197: Preview and Predictions
from Trent Reinsmith - Sports Cheat Sheet






Andre Fili vs. Yair Rodriguez

This featherweight fight between two talented young prospects could be a sleeper pick for “Fight of the Night.” Yair Rodriguez is a highly skilled fighter who the UFC is clearly pushing as a potential star. His style is exciting, fast-paced, and risky. If we had to pick one fighter who he reminds us of, that fighter would be Pettis.
Andre Fili, a product of Team Alpha Male, has struggled with consistency during his run in the UFC. If his last fight (a first-round TKO win) is any indication, he has found the right mix to make a move in the division. These two fighters will look for the finish in a fight that could steal the show. At the very least it will be an excellent opening bout for the pay-per-view card. We pick Rodriguez by decision here.




Edson Barboza vs. Anthony Pettis

If you like seeing dudes get kicked in the head and body, then we have a fight for you. The lightweight bout between former UFC champion Pettis and Edson Barboza promises to feature some spectacular kicks. Pettis has delivered some of the best kicks in MMA history. His “Showtime” knockdown of Benson Henderson in 2010 still appears on highlight reels, as do the first-round knockout kicks he delivered to Joe Lauzon (head) and Donald Cerrone (body).

The problem for Pettis is that those stoppages all happened more than three years ago. He enters his fight against Barboza on a two-fight losing streak, and that’s a bad thing in the talent-rich lightweight division. Barboza’s most memorable kick was his 2012 head-kick knockout of Terry Etim, which left Etim unconscious before he even hit the mat.

Since then, Barboza has experienced an up-and-down run, going 3-3 in his last six fights. Pettis has shown that he struggles in fights against opponents who pressure him and leave him no space to get his kicks and punches off, don’t expect Barboza to follow that blueprint in this fight. Look for Pettis to take the decision in this contest.




Rafael Natal vs. Robert Whittaker

This is a battle between two top-15 middleweights. Robert Whittaker, a former welterweight, moved up to middleweight three fights ago and since then he has gone unbeaten. Rafael Natal has competed in the UFC’s 185-pound division for almost six years, and he’s currently riding a four-fight winning streak.

Whittaker is the younger fighter at 25 and someone who is on the rise in the promotion. Natal, at 33, is more of a gatekeeper in the division. Whittaker is a dangerous striker with quick and heavy hands; he can also use kicks to set up his punches, which he can deliver with little windup. Natal is a distance striker who possesses a smothering ground game.

If Whittaker can control the Octagon in this fight, then it should be an exciting striking battle. If Natal can close the distance and take the fight to the ground, then this one may be long and tedious. Whittaker is the favorite here, and it’s hard to bet against him; he just too explosive for a fighter like Natal. The expectation is that Whittaker will take a unanimous decision in this one.




Demetrious Johnson vs. Henry Cejudo

Johnson is the second-best pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC. The only fighter who is more well-rounded and dominating than Johnson is the man fighting in the main event, Jones. Johnson is unbeaten as a flyweight — his only losses have come as a bantamweight. He’s also the only fighter ever to hold the UFC flyweight title, winning the belt in September 2012 and defending it seven times since then.

Johnson is the fastest fighter in the UFC; his footwork and cardio are second to none. He never quits, he never cruises, and he’s always looking to show his dominance. If you need evidence of that fact, look to his UFC 186 submission win over Kyoji Horiguchi. Johnson finished that fight at the 4:59 mark of the fifth and final round.

Cejudo does not have Johnson’s experience, speed, or talent, but he does have confidence and a history of winning. Cejudo is an accomplished wrestler with a 2008 Olympic gold medal and a perfect MMA record of 10-0 to his name. That confidence is what will keep him in this fight. He won’t win it, but he won’t quit either, and that should make for an exciting scrap. Look for Johnson to defend his title for an eighth time in this fight, earning a unanimous decision.




Jon Jones vs. Ovince Saint Preux

Jon Jones, the former UFC heavyweight has one loss on his official record, but if you ask, most people will say of that loss, “Eh, not so much.” You see, Jones’ loss was a disqualification defeat for landing illegal elbows on Matt Hamill back in 2009. Without that loss, Jones’ record would be a perfect 22-0. As it stands, he is 21-1.

Jones is the former UFC champion because he was stripped of the title in April 2015 after his involvement in a hit-and-run accident. While he was suspended, Daniel Cormier captured the vacant title. UFC 197 will mark the first time Jones has fought since he defeated Cormier in January 2015. Jones has been through a lot outside the cage in the past year, so he has a lot to prove in this fight.

Expect him to come into this fight with a lot of motivation, focus, and a desire to prove that he is the true light heavyweight champion. Jones is better than Saint Preux in every possible way except one; Saint Preux has one-punch knockout power, and honestly that’s the only way he is going to beat Jones, catching him with that one big punch.

The odds of this happening are slim, as Jones has never been knocked down. Jones, recognized by many as the best fighter ever, will win this fight, and he will do so in an impressive fashion. We’re going with a second-round stoppage in this one, probably a submission, but a knockout isn’t out of the question.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Preliminary Card Parlay for UFC 197
from MMA Odds Breaker





Welterweight bout: Danny Roberts (-365) vs Dominique Steele (+255)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Roberts is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this 170-pound contest and expect him to have a big striking advantag against Steele. I think he will find success in keeping this fight on the feet, where I expect him to outclass Steele and likely find a T/KO stoppage, if not cruise to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I see this as Roberts’ fight to lose and I would be surprised to see him come out short. I think the only way Steele can win this fight is if he manages to outwrestle Roberts for at least two out of three rounds and I think the odds of that happening are very slim.

Gabe’s Call: Roberts by T/KO (strikes, 1:43 round 1)




Women’s Strawweight bout: Carla Esparza (-210) vs Juliana Lima (+160)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Esparza is going to employ her superior grappling in this contest and dominate Lima on the mat. I think it is 50/50 whether Esparza manages to submit Lima or if she takes a unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. I think the extended layoff has been good for Esparza and I expect her to make a statement against Lima on Saturday night.

Gabe’s Call: Esparza by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)



Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Roberts (-365) and Esparza (-210) at -114 for 4.55u to win 4u

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197 Prelim Spotlight: Roberts vs Steele Breakdown
from Dan Tom - MMA Latest News





Las Vegas’s undercard action runs deep on FOX Sports 1, as welterweights Danny “Hot Chocolate” Roberts and Dominique “Non-stop Action Packed” Steele collide in a potential barn-burner.

As one of England’s top mixed martial arts products, Danny Roberts turned heads fighting in Cage Warriors before debuting with the UFC. Moving shop to the United States to train with renown Blackzilians, the well-rounded Roberts will look to continue to show his improvements & growth as a fighter.

Standing in Roberts way is the always dangerous Dominique Steele. Primarily making his name in the mid-west circuits, Dom Steele has had stints in Strikeforce & Bellator before scoring himself a regional title with CES. Dropping his short notice debut to Zak Cummings last year, Steele has since picked up a victory overseas against “Maestro” Dong Hyun Kim. Tasked with testing Hot Chocolate, Steele will look to parlay this opportunity into momentum of his own.

Starting off on the feet, Danny Roberts should have an advantage in this fight. The amateur boxer displays fluid footwork & fundamental striking technique, and despite what his background would suggest, Roberts is not shy about quickly releasing hard kicks from both sides and multiple ranges. Accentuating his strikes is an accurate right hook that Danny throws well coming forward or off the counter.

With Roberts usually initiating exchanges, it will be interesting to see his approach as I see distance management being a key for Hot Chocolate on the feet. A stalking power puncher, Steele will plot forward varying his entries from overhands to shots. Demonstrating a strong motive to enter clinch situations, Dominique displays consistent pressure as he steadily transitions from dirty boxing to grappling.


Although Steele may have his best chances in close, he will have to be careful on his entries and in exchanges, as he will often leave his head habitually on center. Against an accurate and dangerous striker like Roberts, Steele could be dealt a short night should he not mind his defenses. However, if Dominique can work his game from the clinch or ground Danny, the positional grinding of Steele could test the Englishmen and earn him close rounds.

That said, Roberts is no slouch on the ground nor has he ever shied from this part of his game. An underrated wrestler, Danny has consistently shot for takedowns and looked to work over his opposition from the floor. Putting his long frame to good use, Hot Chocolate has developed a taste for chokes that vary from top to bottom. Working with ground specialist Neil Melanson, the Liverpool native displayed solid technique off his back as he made the proper adjustments to finish his last fight.

Although Dominique Steele is a strong young fighter himself, Roberts shows more fight-to-fight improvements and has more ways to win this fight. Even if Steele does manage to get going from top-side, Danny is dangerous from his back, and his relentless scrambling game makes him hard to hold down. Regardless of who you favor here, this will be a fight in the FS1 fold you do not want to miss.



Official Pick: Roberts – Inside the distance

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197: Idiot's Guide Preview to Yair Rodriguez vs Andre Fili
from David Castillo - Bloody Elbow





3 Things You Should Know

1. Yair is a blue chip prospect that's been hermetically sealed too long and so over-appreciates the oxygen of pugilism.

Rodriguez reminds me of Tony Ferguson, as directed by James Franco. He began his career a wild brawler, and he's fought since then as a brawler. Just a brawler with something to say, however unfiltered. After winning TUF, he's since beaten Dan Hooker and Charles Rosa: two very solid wins for a fighter of Yair's caliber at the time. He's facing a stern test this weekend that will either be too much too soon, or so much, so swoon.


2. Fili's mixed record betrays his real talents.

Fili waned before he waxed entering the UFC. He's a young fighter with a lot of experience training at a strong camp at Team Alpha Male. In other words, that much more dangerous for someone like Rodriguez. However, Rodriguez profiles to fighters similar to those Fili lost to. Needless to say, this is matchmaking so good it's almost too good.



3. Yair needs to take lessons from Carlos Condit about how to conceal wrestling weakness.

So far Rodriguez has gotten by with a style that looks more like Poongko piloting Seth from SF4 than an actual human piloting their own consciousness. I'm not sure you can call moves he executes as 'access to cartwheel ground and pound' so much as they are glitches in his matrix.

However, beneath the jumping switch kicks and Only the Strong offense is a fighter who understands enough mechanics to know when it's safe to execute such moves. He uses his tall frame for offense, which conceals his limited defense. His broken rhythm allows him to land good long strikes that makes output unpredictable. He's also excellent on the ground, chaining opportunities together a more straight forward but equally effective way on the ground. His mount is a special brand of savage.

Fili takes a more traditional approach with his boxing. His combinations are tightly packed into a whirling dervish of violence, and when he's using his legs, he's surgical. The other thing about Fili's game is that he's borrowed some of the best aspects of Alpha Male's trademark, able to phase shift from striking to wrestling with authoritative clinchwork and dynamic wrestling.




Prediction

I remember watching Carlos Condit fight Jake Shields and thinking, despite the loss, "that's how you're supposed to fight on the ground against a grappler". If Yair can remain active with elbows and movement the way Condit does, this is a winnable fight. It may be purely aesthetic, but aesthetics sell judges. Judges are no different than fans in that respect; seduced by offense, however illusory. I like Yair's game a lot but this feels a little like Benoit vs. Pettis: a prospect facing a slightly rawer prospect that has the benefit of the development gap right now. Fili will be able to land enough takedowns, and hit Rodriguez often enough to keep him passive at times. Nonetheless, great fight.


Andre Fili by Split Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197 Newcomer Breakdown: Cody East
from MMA Odds Breaker



Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters. In the latest installment, we look at heavyweight Cody East who was noticed by Dana White in a recent episode of the Fight Pass series, “Looking for a Fight.” East makes his debut against journeyman Walt Harris at UFC 197 in Las Vegas, Nevada.


Cody “The Freight Train” East
Hometown: Albuquerque, New Mexico
Age: 27
Height: 6’3”
Reach: 77”
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Camp: Jackson-Winklejohn MMA
Career Record: 12-1
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: None



Background
The two time New Mexico high school state wrestling champion is one of the top heavyweight prospects in North America. At 27 years of age, East already has a wealth of experience. He was the Legacy Heavyweight Champion prior to making the jump to the UFC.


Strengths

• Very good footwork for a heavyweight
• Aggressive striker that is willing to engage from the onset
• Sharp over hand
• Creative kicker when he has space to use them
• Can certainly take a punch

Weaknesses

• Conditioning is a real question mark
• Troubled past that he will have to continue to answer questions about
• Can strike off his back, but hasn’t shown ability to get back to feet
• Too reliant on right sided attacks

Match-up against Walt Harris
Two of the more athletic heavyweights in the UFC square off at UFC 197 as promotion newcomer Cody East takes on returning UFC heavyweight Walt Harris. Harris has the size advantage in this bout with a couple inch difference in both height and reach. Both prefer to strike and do their best work when they can control the stand up. Both have shown improving striking skills in recent fights which should make this an entertaining bout. The biggest difference in this bout is toughness. Harris certainly isn’t able to take the caliber of strike that his opponent can. East is the more resilient fighter and is capable of eating a punch to take one. In the heavyweight division, that is the difference between a lengthy career and one that cannot get off the ground. I expect this bout to be a fairly even contest until Harris’ chin gives out and East is able to get a finish in his first fight in the world’s biggest MMA promotion.


UFC Ceiling
Cody East is a fighter with a lot of promise inside the octagon. He has better movement than most light heavyweights and a constantly improving striking game. His overhand right is crisp and he’s able to land it with accuracy. He combines that with a decent wrestling game. Out of the cage, he has a troubled past with some incidents with the law. If East can stay out of trouble and stick with a consistent fight schedule, he has the tools and ability to make a name for himself in the heavyweight division. He will need to work on his defensive game on the ground, but overall his offensive awareness in the standup will give a lot of fighters problems. Look for East to start well in the UFC, but will need to further polish his game if he’s to challenge the more physically imposing fighters in the division.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

The Downes Side - UFC 197 predictions
from UFC.com





GLAICO FRANCA VS. JAMES VICK

The first fight we’ll look at takes place in the lightweight division between Glaico Franca and James Vick. Winner of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil Season 4, Franca has 13 career finishes almost evenly split between KOs and submissions. The “Texecutioner” Vick is 4-0 inside the Octagon and coming off an upset win over Jake Matthews. Rangy for the weight class (he stands at 6’3”), Vick’s most dangerous weapons are his submission skills.

Franca is another large lightweight, but much stockier. He has a lot of power and scrambles extremely well. Vick has never completed a takedown in the UFC, but Franca’s explosiveness will help him avoid choke attempts. Vick’s striking isn’t revolutionary, but he does do well in close distance. He counters effectively and mixes in short uppercuts and knees to stun opponents. His counter defense, however, is another story. He tries to avoid punches by utilizing the Terror Squad method (aka lean back) instead of moving his feet. Franca could exploit this with his power, but he telegraphs his strikes. Much of the reason he won TUF Brazil had to do with his opponent tiring. Vick’s cardio is strong enough for the long haul. He takes it with a second round submission.




ANTHONY PETTIS VS. EDSON BARBOZA

We stay at lightweight for Anthony Pettis and Edson Barboza. After back-to-back losses to Rafael Dos Anjos and Eddie Alvarez, Pettis really needs a win. Yes, there’s no shame in losing to such excellent fighters, but MMA fans are a lot like cats. You can entertain and provide for them for years, but all they care about is, “What have you done for me lately?” On the bright side, both can’t get enough of the Showtime Kick. Barboza also looks to rebound from his most recent loss to Tony Ferguson.

This should be a striking showcase of epic proportions. We know that Pettis has had difficulties with grappling pressure, but the same can be said for his striking defense. He needs a lot of space to throw his kicks, but fighters like Alvarez and Dos Anjos have smothered him and forced him to box. Pettis has fast hands, but his punches work in conjunction with his kicks. Take those away, and they aren’t as effective. Barboza suffers from similar problems. He likes to stay loose so he can fire off his powerful leg strikes, but he needs time to load them up. Neither one of them are much on volume (although Barboza is better in that regard), but they can both end a fight in an instant. If you look at the Ferguson fight, Barboza got anxious after he had been hit with a few big strikes. He dove for a takedown, exposed his neck and was submitted. The same thing will play out here. He’ll make an ill-timed takedown attempt and Pettis cinches up the guillotine for a first-round submission victory.




DEMETRIOUS JOHNSON VS. HENRY CEJUDO

That brings us to flyweight for Demetrious Johnson and Henry Cejudo. Mighty Mouse hasn’t lost a fight since 2011, at the hands of Dominick Cruz, and his last defense against John Dodson made it seem like the streak isn’t ending anytime soon. One of the most gifted fighters in MMA, he can beat you anywhere and everywhere. An Olympic gold medal winner in freestyle wrestling, the 29-year-old Cejudo is ready to add some UFC gold to his trophy case. He’s 4-0 inside the Octagon and is coming off a split decision win over Jussier Formiga in November.

For all his wrestling accolades, Cejudo has spent the majority of his UFC career attacking with his boxing. Technically sound, he throws a crisp jab and uses that to set up his power punches (especially his overhand right). Surprisingly, his takedown conversion rate is only 33.33%. Some of that is due to the fact he hasn’t attempted as many as we would have thought, but it’s also because he doesn’t blend the attempts with his hands as well as someone like Johnson. Cejudo has never given up a takedown, but that streak will end here. Mighty Mouse simply has too many weapons. Yes, he has been prone to letting power shots slip though, but Cejudo hasn’t shown the KO power to let us think he could put Johnson away. Cejudo gets overwhelmed with volume and Mighty Mouse retains his belt by unanimous decision.




JON JONES VS. OVINCE SAINT PREUX

Time for the main event! Jon Jones returns to action for the first time in over a year. He has made a lot of mistakes in his personal conduct and has been stripped of the title, but this could be the beginning of his road to redemption. Stepping in for an injured Daniel Cormier, Ovince Saint Preux plans on shocking the world.
Is Jon Jones the best MMA fighter ever? You could certainly make that argument. Is he invincible? Not at all. Outside of his ego (i.e. proving he can beat his opponents with their best skill instead of the path of least resistance), Jones does have some gaps. Especially inside the clinch, Jones shows a lack of urgency and lets a lot of strikes slip through. OSP has an awkward, irregular rhythm to his attacks and could use that to sneak some power shots through. The difference maker here is wrestling. OSP has decent takedown defense, but it’s not where it needs to be to fight off Jones. OSP can have success in the early rounds, but he tends to fade (look at his fight against Glover Teixeira) while Jones only gets stronger. Jon Jones moved one step closer to regaining the undisputed crown with a third-round TKO.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Predictions – UFC 197
from Sean Sheehan - Severe MMA




Jones by complete destruction
Johnson retains his title but gives up a round or two
Someone is getting finished, I’ll take Barboza
Whittaker should win this easily
Yair could get the KO but I’m going for a Fili decision winPettis
Roberts
Esparza
Vick
East
Hester
Lee


BET OF THE WEEK

This week I’m taking Edson Barboza by KO at 4/1

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 197 predictions
from Alexander K. Lee - The Score





Jon Jones (15-1 UFC, 21-1)
vs.
Ovince Saint Preux (7-2 UFC, 19-7)

When "OSP" stepped in for the injured Daniel Cormier, Jon Jones went from facing an opponent who he'd already beaten to a relatively unknown property. Jones even admitted he'd never watched footage of Saint Preux before the match was made.

That's a frightening thought when you realize Saint Preux is exactly the kind of opponent Jones needs to study carefully. As athletically gifted as anyone in the light heavyweight division, Saint Preux has a way of goading his opponents into chasing him and then unloading on them with a sharp counter punch.

It's on "Bones" to use his superior length to dictate the range, which has always been one of his strengths. For most opponents, their goal is to get inside on Jones, but he'll have an even more pronounced advantage there.

Jones' clinch work is second to none, so expect him to tie up Saint Preux early and often. He'll wear Saint Preux down with short strikes and then drag him to the mat where he can really go to work.

Saint Preux will do his best to survive, but if Jones' sharp elbows don't do him in, it will be an unavoidable submission that does the trick.

THE PICK: Jones





Demetrious Johnson (11-1-1 UFC, 23-2-1)
vs.
Henry Cejudo (4-0 UFC, 10-0)

It's fair to say Henry Cejudo failed to have a signature moment in the Octagon despite winning all four of his UFC appearances.

However, he has one elite skill that even Demetrious Johnson might not be able to match. Cejudo won Olympic gold in freestyle wrestling in 2008 and while his striking grows in leaps and bounds with every fight, it's his specialty that could be the key to upsetting Johnson.

That said, a wrestling-focused attack is dependent on Cejudo getting his hands on "Mighty Mouse" and that is not a foregone conclusion by any means. Simply put, Johnson is nigh untouchable when he is at the top of his game, which he has been in seven straight title defenses.

Johnson is a superior striker, he'll have a considerable speed advantage, and he's a monster in the clinch. Even when he's taken down, Johnson has a supernatural ability to scramble to safety and it's hard to picture a scenario where Cejudo is able to stay on the grind for 25 minutes.

The UFC has been hyping this as the biggest challenge yet for Johnson and it just might be. He's still going to win.

THE PICK: Johnson





Anthony Pettis (5-3 UFC, 18-4)
vs.
Edson Barboza (10-4 UFC, 16-4)

On paper, Anthony Pettis has all the tools to dominate Edson Barboza; then again, he had all the tools to beat Eddie Alvarez and Rafael dos Anjos, too, and those outings went poorly for him.

That said, unless you believe there's a tangible reason Pettis is trending downward, he should be able to handle Barboza. Both fighters are versatile and intelligent strikers, so a fight that takes place primarily on the feet could be a toss-up.

But Pettis has always had great offensive grappling and should Barboza manage to hurt him, he has the option of taking the fight to the mat. That's the last place Barboza wants to be.

Even if it doesn't end up on the ground, the threat of a takedown will provide the edge that Pettis needs to get back on the winning track.

THE PICK: Pettis





Robert Whittaker (6-2 UFC, 15-4)
vs.
Rafael Natal (9-4-1 UFC, 21-6-1)

Robert Whittaker's affinity for slugfests is understandable given that he's one of the hardest hitters at 185 pounds; however, Rafael Natal is a heavy puncher in his own right. Don't let the lack of knockouts on his resume fool you. If Natal finds the chin of an overeager Whittaker, it will be lights out for the Australian.

Fortunately for Whittaker, he showed great maturity in his last fight with Uriah Hall where he picked his spots and outworked Hall for three rounds. A similar approach on Saturday will lead to Whittaker continuing his steady march up the middleweight rankings.

THE PICK: Whittaker





Yair Rodriguez (3-0 UFC, 6-1)
vs.
Andre Fili (3-2 UFC, 15-3)

With every fight, Yair Rodriguez shows more confidence and greater precision with his strikes. His ground game is a work in progress, but that won't matter much when he throws down with fellow prospect Andre "Touchy" Fili.

Rodriguez projects as the more technical striker, though that might not be enough to overcome Fili, a featherweight with natural finishing instincts. Both fighters like to throw a lot of kicks, so look for their lead legs to be some shade of purple by the time the fight is over.

Fili has the slight experience edge and his willingness to go for broke is going to be difficult for "El Pantera" to deal with. A first-round knockout and a first career loss are in store for the 23-year-old Rodriguez.

THE PICK: Fili