DR. CHUCK
Game: (955) Philadelphia Phillies at (956) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Arizona Diamondbacks -140
View Analysis
Arrieta v. Leake
Leake is certainly the tortoise to much of the league's starters hare: he isn't a 'big' name, he doesn't strike a ton of guys out...47 in 64 innings since June started, he doesn't walk many guys at all at just 5 walks in last 10 starts, and he is steady to the point of very few earned runs considering his velocity and inability to blow ANYONE away...just 27 ER in last 64.1 innings...almost always worth the money he costs and never more than a 3rd-ish spot in the rotation guy He nearly had a perfect game for the woeful Mariners before becoming a consolation prize for the Dbacks fans (in addition to Zac Gallen) who dumped Zack Greinke's $700 million dollar contract on the soon-to-be champs...haha.
Jake Arrieta is almost the opposite of Mike Leake: he is a big name with hardware to boot, signed a monster contract to walk away from Chitown after helping break the curse, and has underperformed almost completely since arriving. Arrieta is supposed to absolutely be any rotation's stud, Ks guys left and right, and help change a team from pretender to contender even before signing Bryce in this past offseason.
Aside from this breakdown, I'm not sure more evidence is needed than Vegas telling us what they think. They hung AZ as a short chalk (off a series opening loss BTW) both first 5 and full game and it moved nearly immediately almost 25 points away from Jakester.
Take the Dbacks to hit the RH well early (not fret over bullpen or late inning shenanigans) and take advantage of the 4.50 to 5.00 xFIP he has put up since June, including 20% HR/FB rate, striking out just 6 per 9 and walking nearly 4, which includes facing this Dbacks team at home and doing just that but surviving for the win that night.