Tuesday Service Play Thread 8/06/2019

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Greg shaker

3* Baltimore / New York yankees over 11

1* Cincinnati -138
 

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+EV: MLB 4u: 967 Kansas City Royals +185 (J Junis | A Cashner) (Tuesday, August 6th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 971 Texas Rangers +182 (A Jurado | Z Plesac) (Tuesday, August 6th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 956 Arizona Diamondbacks -113 (J Arrieta | M Leake) (Tuesday, August 6th)


+EV: MLB 4u: 967 KC/BOS ov10.5 -110 (J Junis | A Cashner) (Tuesday, August 6th)
 

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Desert sports:

Az -130
min-150
bos -170
pit/mil o9
nyy/balt o10.5
bos/kc o10
 

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DR. CHUCK

Game: (963) New York Yankees at (964) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Yankees -1.5 (-138)

View Analysis

Action v. Wojciechowski
Yanks mashed 5 home runs in the series opener last night and most likely putting together a bullpen game tonight with Jonathan Holder starting it off after a stint back in AAA. Carlos Torres is behind the plate tonight, and while already being a boon for the road team in any game he umpires, he also is the best Over bet going in today's crews. He has also umpired the Yankees on the road 3 times already this season and in all 3 the Yanks won on the road and covering the run line each time winning by 4 and 4 and 2 all over division rivals as well in Boston, Toronto, and Baltimore.
Asher had shut down teams twice in a row in 2 starts and faltered a good bit in his last outing...and now is rewarded with the Yankees mash unit! Good chance LeMahieu is back at 1st and basically the lineup from 1 through 9 can take this man deep each and every time to the plate...looking to extend the Camden Yards barrage to 14 straight games in this rivalry when the O's are in their friendly confines.


Game: (977) Atlanta Braves at (978) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Minnesota Twins -0.5 (-115)

View Analysis

Foltynewicz v. Berrios
So Folty couldn't stop giving up bombs...they sent him down and he was miraculously cured by the International League and he gets to make his first start in 6 weeks...on the road...against the team with the MLB HR lead...by a LARGE margin...and even more HR at home facing LHP than the Rockies at Coors!
Snitker had seen enough of Gauman after 3 starts back from the AAA stint and sure makes ya wonder if this is a coincidence that unfortunate for Folty or if he is being massively set up for failure!
Berrios is solid and has even gotten a smidge better the last month than he was even prior...and should be able to skate by the Braves lineup on the road tonight as he has struck out more hitters, allowed less HR, and improved his LOB% all since the start of July compared to the previous 3 months. The Twinkies lineup will feature 3 left handed hitters facing the Braves hopefully resurgent starter, but only Max Kepler as the leadoff hitter presents even the slightest bit of a liability in this instance...as both Eddie Rosario and Luis Arraez will not be platooned for a reason, the former even with a better wOBA than facing RHP...especially at home.
For the hot hitting Twins to lay such a miniscule amount on the first 5 to be ahead by a run or more is the VALUE of the day. This bet is in large amounts due to not buying this is AT ALL the spot to let Folty make his return...and if he isn't being set up to fail by Brian Snitker then he is outsmarting the room and that includes us on the play tonight!
 

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Miller locks

7:05 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. Pittsburgh pirates

pick: Milwaukee brewers (-145)

risk: 11 units

7:10 pm est mlb
texas rangers vs. Cleveland indians

pick: Cleveland indians -1.5 (-113)

risk: 11 units

8:10 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. Houston astros

pick: Houston astros -1.5 (-109)

risk: 11 units

8:10 pm est mlb
atlanta braves vs. Minnesota twins

pick: Over 10 (-109)

risk: 11 units

10:10 pm est mlb
st. Louis cardinals vs. Los angeles dodgers

pick: St. Louis cardinals +1.5 (-109)

risk: 11 units
 

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DR. CHUCK

Game: (955) Philadelphia Phillies at (956) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Arizona Diamondbacks -140

View Analysis

Arrieta v. Leake
Leake is certainly the tortoise to much of the league's starters hare: he isn't a 'big' name, he doesn't strike a ton of guys out...47 in 64 innings since June started, he doesn't walk many guys at all at just 5 walks in last 10 starts, and he is steady to the point of very few earned runs considering his velocity and inability to blow ANYONE away...just 27 ER in last 64.1 innings...almost always worth the money he costs and never more than a 3rd-ish spot in the rotation guy He nearly had a perfect game for the woeful Mariners before becoming a consolation prize for the Dbacks fans (in addition to Zac Gallen) who dumped Zack Greinke's $700 million dollar contract on the soon-to-be champs...haha.
Jake Arrieta is almost the opposite of Mike Leake: he is a big name with hardware to boot, signed a monster contract to walk away from Chitown after helping break the curse, and has underperformed almost completely since arriving. Arrieta is supposed to absolutely be any rotation's stud, Ks guys left and right, and help change a team from pretender to contender even before signing Bryce in this past offseason.
Aside from this breakdown, I'm not sure more evidence is needed than Vegas telling us what they think. They hung AZ as a short chalk (off a series opening loss BTW) both first 5 and full game and it moved nearly immediately almost 25 points away from Jakester.
Take the Dbacks to hit the RH well early (not fret over bullpen or late inning shenanigans) and take advantage of the 4.50 to 5.00 xFIP he has put up since June, including 20% HR/FB rate, striking out just 6 per 9 and walking nearly 4, which includes facing this Dbacks team at home and doing just that but surviving for the win that night.
 

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GOODFELLA

3* Arizona -130

1* MINNESOTA TWINS

1* CINCINNATI REDS

1* YANKEES/ORIOLES OVER 10.5
 

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ANDRE GOMES

2* Baltimore

2* Tampa bay / Toronto over 8.5

2* Cincinnati

2* Atlanta
 

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OSKEIM SPORTS

Game: (969) Toronto Blue Jays at (970) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -193


Game: (969) Toronto Blue Jays at (970) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-108)


Game: (953) Miami Marlins at (954) New York Mets
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Mets -1.5 (-118)


Game: (953) Miami Marlins at (954) New York Mets
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 2%
Play: New York Mets -215
 

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DR. CHUCK


Game: (979) Colorado Rockies at (980) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros Team Total Over 4.5 (-120)

View Analysis

Marquez v. Greinke
Greinke debut with his new offense facing a regular foe of his and they only need 5 runs?!?! Hmmm and against my fade pal German?

I'm so confused I'm keeping it down at 4...but feels like a 5% hammer!
 

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Stats Analytics Sports

MLB

4* Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates ~ OVER 10 (+101)

4* Miami Marlins vs New York Mets ~ UNDER 8 (+101)

4* Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians ~ UNDER 10.5 (-108)

1* Chicago Cubs (-133) vs Oakland Athletics

1* Minnesota Twins (-149) vs Atlanta Braves

4* Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks ~ UNDER 9.5 (-117)

1* Los Angeles Dodgers (-180) vs St. Louis Cardinals
 

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