SPORTS WAGERS
SAN DIEGO -108 over N.Y. Mets
Seth Lugo has made just seven starts for the Mets and comes in with a respectable 4.05 ERA along with a BB/K split of 14/33 in 47 frames. Last year, Lugo went 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 64 innings for the Mets. Lugo is 27-years old and has been riding the shuttle between the minors and majors for a few years so this is not a breakout. Instead, it’s just a lucky MLB hit%/strand% combo (24%/81%), which is the flip side of his fortunes at AAA. Lugo has fared better as a reliever (8.5 K’s/9 - 4.11 xERA) than a starter (5.6 K’s/9 - 4.66 xERA) at this level and his 50% groundball rate could present a path forward, but the reality is that he's a late bloomer who didn't arrive 'til age 26 and he may disappear as fast as he came.
Jhoulys Chacin did not have the best start to the 2017 season. In his first start of the year, he gave up nine earned runs against the Dodgers. Chacin gave up another seven runs four starts later at the hands of the Diamondbacks. By the time the baseball season reached the end of April, Chacin was 3-3 with a 5.82 ERA. The threat of him imploding on any given night made him a fade target for many. However, since the beginning of June, the 29-year-old Chacin has produced very different results. If we simply look at Chacin’s season stats, there isn’t a lot that will jump out. However, his monthly splits begin to paint a positive picture. After the first month of the season, Chacin’s ERA was 5.82. That number dropped to 3.00 in June, and it sits at 2.08 in July. Also, his K-rate % has slowly increased each month of the season. Chacin has never been known as a strikeout pitcher, but the production has gradually gotten better over the course of the season.
There are other encouraging trends as well. His soft contact rate is trending upward, and his groundball rate is as high as it’s been since 2011. Add to these factors increased velocity and you have the makings of a more successful pitcher. These are all positive signs but there’s more. It appears that much of Chacin’s success stems from the fact that he’s throwing his slider more than at any point in his career. In April, he was throwing the pitch only 21% of the time. In June and July, that rate has been north of 35%. Chacin’s slider has the highest whiff/swing rate in his arsenal (33.89%), and it’s been his most successful pitch against opposing batters. His curve has produced slightly better results, but he’s thrown it far less often. Jhoulys Chacin has a 1.94/3.01 ERA/xERA at home. The Padres have won his last four starts and they’ve also won six of his last eight starts. Chacin has defeated the Dodgers over that span and did not allow a single run to them and now he’s evenly priced against Seth Lugo and the Mets? We buy bargains and this is one of them.
Oakland +102 over TORONTO
Francisco Liriano did his part last night but had it not been for a lucky throw by Ricky Martin to catch Rajai Davis for the first out of the first inning, the A’s may have scored a bunch in the first. That’s speculation but from that point forward, Liriano and the Jays pen threw a great game. However, the Jays offense remained stagnant and now Cesar Valdez is favored over Sonny Gray? That’s incorrect.
Valdez was claimed off waivers from Oakland (of all teams) by the Blue Jays on Friday, May 5. He made one start with the A’s back in April and has made four relief appearances for the Jays, all in a mop-up role. In 19 frames, this season, Valdez has been tagged for 23 hits with five of those leaving the yard. Valdez is no rookie. The 32-year-old Valdez was called up by the Athletics to make a spot start on that aforementioned date back in April and it was his first major league action since a couple of dozen innings all the way back in 2010 for Arizona. In the seven years since then, Valdez has bounced around teams (both MLB and foreign leagues), never reaching higher than Triple-A. Valdez doesn't have dominant stuff, of course, but he throws lots of pitches, including a fastball that barely reaches 90 mph and a change-up, a sinker and a slider. Still, there’s a reason he’s been riding buses and not airplanes since 2006. That this Aaron Sanchez desperate replacement is favored over Sonny Gray is a bit nuts.
Neck, shoulder and forearm injuries affected Sonny Gray’s playing time (10 weeks over 2 DL trips) last season. His control and hr/f ballooned sending his ERA, WHIP and opponent OPS soaring. Somehow, someway, Sonny Gray’s outstanding skills and rock solid season is not being recognized by this fickle market. Sonny Gray is the straight goods. His 3.51 xERA is elite. After a terrible 2016 (5.69 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) his improvement has been backed by significant growth across the board. Gray is striking out 8.4 batters per nine innings. His 55% groundball rate is a top six mark in the league. A huge increase in Gray's swinging strike rate (8.0% in 2016 to 12.8% this year) has helped to fuel his turnaround. Gray was outstanding prior to his injury and now he’s back to the form that instilled fear into the opposition but the market hasn’t responded. We’ve been touting Gray all year and will continue to get benind him as long as he remains underpriced like he is here.
Miami +120 over TEXAS
Cole Hamels is 4-1 with a 3.78 ERA. Over his last three starts, Hamels is 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA. After five April starts, Hamels’ 4.93 xERA and poor command indicated that something wasn't right. Sure enough, Hamels was dealing with an injury and spent two months on the DL with a strained oblique. On paper, he’s looked better since returning in late June but this is not the same pitcher who went 15-5 in 2016 and was dominating for years before that. This year, Hamels’ ERA looks great, but his 4.82 xERA indicate there are some issues. First, there’s a big drop in his swing and miss rate, which accounts for his low strikeout rate of 36 K’s in 64 innings. Hamels’ groundball rate is in decline and his line-drive rate is gradually increasing too and is now up from 19% in April to 24% since returning from the DL. Cole Hamels is a household name with credentials and pedigree but even the best deteriorate over time. Hamels is a fraction of the starter he once was and now you’ll pay for both his misleading ERA and his name.
Meanwhile, Dan Straily is the better pitcher here and his significant gains versus LHB are propelling him. Straily was a pleasant surprise in 2016, as he put together a solid 3.76 ERA in 191 IP with the Reds. However, there were reasons for concern heading into his first season with the Marlins, most notably his extreme gopheritis. His substantial progress vs. lefties has curbed the HR output. His 2016 line vs. LHB was largely driven by a fortuitous 21% hit rate, as he allowed 10 HR in 191 plate appearances and displayed dreadful command vs. LHB in the process. He has turned things around in a major way in 2017 with excellent command and two jacks allowed in 176 PA. Only five pitchers in MLB allowed more jacks (31) than Straily in 2016 (18 HR came away from hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; 7 of 11 HR allowed in 2017 have come on the road), but he has gotten the problem under control so far in 2017. A sizable shift to the good in groundball%/fly-ball% has played a part in that progress.
Straily’s current strikeout rate (105 K’s in 113 innings) is supported by his well above average 12% swing and miss rate. An improved slider has been instrumental in that growth (slider swing and miss rate 2016/2017: 14%/18%; Usage +3% to 29%). A focus on getting ahead in the count and pounding the strike zone has aided in producing what would be his best control and his solid Ball% even hints at a little more upside. Straily’s 2016 results caused many to be weary of him heading into 2017. He has been able to stave off that looming regression by upgrading multiple facets of his game and the underlying metrics absolutely confirm that it’s legit. Big time overlay here and we’re on it.