DWAYNE BRYANT
Event: (901) New York Mets at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: September 18, 2018 7PM EDT
Play: Total Over 7.0 (-120)
List Matz & Nola
My baseball totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Projected Runs Scored = 8
Joe Public sees Aaron Nola is on the mound tonight and automatically wants to bet the Under. Betting the Under in every game started by an ace is not a good idea. In this case, the Mets are averaging 5.3 runs in road night games against righties, with the OVER going 22-13-2 (63%). The Phillies are averaging a hefty 6.8 runs in home night games against lefties, with the OVER going 10-3 (77%). Included in that 6.8 rpg are two games against Miami in which the Phillies plated 20 and 14 runs. Taking those two games out of the equation, we still have an Over rate of 73% (8-3). Over the last week, the Mets have averaged 6 runs per game, and it's 5 runs per game for the Phillies. Despite what the public thinks, I think the OVER has a good chance to cash in this one.
Event: (901) New York Mets at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: September 18, 2018 7PM EDT
Play: Total Over 7.0 (-120)
List Matz & Nola
My baseball totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Projected Runs Scored = 8
Joe Public sees Aaron Nola is on the mound tonight and automatically wants to bet the Under. Betting the Under in every game started by an ace is not a good idea. In this case, the Mets are averaging 5.3 runs in road night games against righties, with the OVER going 22-13-2 (63%). The Phillies are averaging a hefty 6.8 runs in home night games against lefties, with the OVER going 10-3 (77%). Included in that 6.8 rpg are two games against Miami in which the Phillies plated 20 and 14 runs. Taking those two games out of the equation, we still have an Over rate of 73% (8-3). Over the last week, the Mets have averaged 6 runs per game, and it's 5 runs per game for the Phillies. Despite what the public thinks, I think the OVER has a good chance to cash in this one.
DAVE COKIN
Event: (911) San Francisco Giants at (912) San Diego Padres
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: September 18, 2018 10PM EDT
Play: Total Under 7.0 (+106)
The Giants actually scored a few runs and even hit a homer in Monday's win against the Padres. Expect a return to the norm for the Giants tonight. This is a really feeble lineup at this point. There's very little power, and the Giants are not good at manufacturing runs. It's not like the Padres are especially potent with the sticks either, so neither of these attacks qualifies as daunting. The pitching has a good chance to be the dominant factor tonight. Derek Holland has had a terrific run since the All-Star break, and there's no reason I can see to expect anything different from him tonight. Padres rookie Joey Lucchesi has had a very solid season and appears to have stamped himself as fixture in the Friars rotation for years to come. Edge to the hurlers tonight a very pitcher-friendly umpire behind the dish tonight in Doug Eddings. He's got one of the more generous strikes zones in the game and that should be a plus for the two southpaw starters. I'd look at the Giants and Padres as a decent Under play tonight.
Event: (911) San Francisco Giants at (912) San Diego Padres
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: September 18, 2018 10PM EDT
Play: Total Under 7.0 (+106)
The Giants actually scored a few runs and even hit a homer in Monday's win against the Padres. Expect a return to the norm for the Giants tonight. This is a really feeble lineup at this point. There's very little power, and the Giants are not good at manufacturing runs. It's not like the Padres are especially potent with the sticks either, so neither of these attacks qualifies as daunting. The pitching has a good chance to be the dominant factor tonight. Derek Holland has had a terrific run since the All-Star break, and there's no reason I can see to expect anything different from him tonight. Padres rookie Joey Lucchesi has had a very solid season and appears to have stamped himself as fixture in the Friars rotation for years to come. Edge to the hurlers tonight a very pitcher-friendly umpire behind the dish tonight in Doug Eddings. He's got one of the more generous strikes zones in the game and that should be a plus for the two southpaw starters. I'd look at the Giants and Padres as a decent Under play tonight.
Jack Jones
Sep 18 '18, 7:35 PM in 5h
MLB | Cardinals vs Braves
Play on: Cardinals +128 at BMaker
Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: St. Louis Cardinals +128
I’m back on the Cardinals today as underdogs to the Atlanta Braves for many of the same reasons as yesterday. They are trying to hang on to a wild card spot, so they have a lot to play for right now. The Braves all but have the NL East locked up as they are 6.5 games ahead of the second-place Phillies with not much to play for at this point.
I’ll gladly back Austin Gomber in this spot over Animal Sanchez tonight. Gomber has been solid at 4-1 with a 3.91 ERA in nine starts this season for the Cardinals. Gomber has been at his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 3.34 ERA in six road starts.
The Cardinals are 7-2 in Gomber’s nine starts this season, including 5-1 in his six road starts. St. Louis is 12-2 in its last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Braves are 1-7 in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 1-5 in Sanchez’s last six home starts. St. Louis is 7-0 in its last seven meetings in Atlanta. Bet the Cardinals Tuesday.
Sep 18 '18, 7:35 PM in 5h
MLB | Cardinals vs Braves
Play on: Cardinals +128 at BMaker
Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: St. Louis Cardinals +128
I’m back on the Cardinals today as underdogs to the Atlanta Braves for many of the same reasons as yesterday. They are trying to hang on to a wild card spot, so they have a lot to play for right now. The Braves all but have the NL East locked up as they are 6.5 games ahead of the second-place Phillies with not much to play for at this point.
I’ll gladly back Austin Gomber in this spot over Animal Sanchez tonight. Gomber has been solid at 4-1 with a 3.91 ERA in nine starts this season for the Cardinals. Gomber has been at his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 3.34 ERA in six road starts.
The Cardinals are 7-2 in Gomber’s nine starts this season, including 5-1 in his six road starts. St. Louis is 12-2 in its last 14 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Braves are 1-7 in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 1-5 in Sanchez’s last six home starts. St. Louis is 7-0 in its last seven meetings in Atlanta. Bet the Cardinals Tuesday.
Dave Price
Sep 18 '18, 7:40 PM in 5h
MLB | Reds vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -1½ +110 at 5dimes
Dave’s Tuesday Bonus Play:
1* on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110)
The Key: The Milwaukee Brewers are in the midst of a pennant race with the Chicago Cubs while also trying to secure a wild card spot. They are playing for more than the pride that the Reds are playing for right now. And Chase Anderson has been solid this year are 9-7 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts, including 0-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Anderson is also 5-1 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts against the Reds. Michael Lorenzen will be making his first start of the season for the Reds today. He’ll surely be on a pitch count. Lorenzen is 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against the Brewers. Take Milwaukee on the Run Line.
Sep 18 '18, 7:40 PM in 5h
MLB | Reds vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -1½ +110 at 5dimes
Dave’s Tuesday Bonus Play:
1* on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110)
The Key: The Milwaukee Brewers are in the midst of a pennant race with the Chicago Cubs while also trying to secure a wild card spot. They are playing for more than the pride that the Reds are playing for right now. And Chase Anderson has been solid this year are 9-7 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts, including 0-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Anderson is also 5-1 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts against the Reds. Michael Lorenzen will be making his first start of the season for the Reds today. He’ll surely be on a pitch count. Lorenzen is 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against the Brewers. Take Milwaukee on the Run Line.
John Martin
Sep 18 '18, 7:05 PM in 4h
MLB | Blue Jays vs Orioles
Play on: Blue Jays -109
1 Unit Bonus Play on Toronto Blue Jays -109
I’ll back the Toronto Blue Jays tonight over the worst team in baseball in the Baltimore Orioles, who are 43-106 on the season. Aaron Sanchez is the better starter in this matchup. He is 6-3 with a 4.11 ERA in 12 previous starts against the Orioles. Dylan Bundy is 8-14 with a 5.48 ERA in 28 starts for the Orioles this year. Bundy is 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Blue Jays this season, surrendering 12 earned runs and 6 home runs in 9 innings. The Blue Jays are 8-2 in Sanchez’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Orioles are 1-7 in Bundy’s last eight starts. Toronto is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings. Give me the Blue Jays.
Sep 18 '18, 7:05 PM in 4h
MLB | Blue Jays vs Orioles
Play on: Blue Jays -109
1 Unit Bonus Play on Toronto Blue Jays -109
I’ll back the Toronto Blue Jays tonight over the worst team in baseball in the Baltimore Orioles, who are 43-106 on the season. Aaron Sanchez is the better starter in this matchup. He is 6-3 with a 4.11 ERA in 12 previous starts against the Orioles. Dylan Bundy is 8-14 with a 5.48 ERA in 28 starts for the Orioles this year. Bundy is 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Blue Jays this season, surrendering 12 earned runs and 6 home runs in 9 innings. The Blue Jays are 8-2 in Sanchez’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Orioles are 1-7 in Bundy’s last eight starts. Toronto is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings. Give me the Blue Jays.
