Jeff Benton
Complimentary Selection
For Tuesday’s Bonus Play, I’ll back the Rays as a rare home underdog against the Red Sox.
How do you not take this kind of plus price with a team that’s been as dominant at home as Tampa Bay has been since May of last year? The Rays have been playing better than .700 baseball at Tropicana Field since that time, and most recently, they’ve won 37 of their last 51 at home, going 11-4 in the last 15. They’re also 55-20 in their last 75 home games against teams with a winning overall record and 69-28 in their last 97 at home against squads that have a losing road record (and Boston is 31-33 away from Fenway Park).
The Red Sox have really not enjoyed the Trop recently, either, going 5-16 in their last 21 visits to Tampa. Additionally, the Rays have won eight of the last 11 overall this season against Boston.
So why is this price so high? Clearly, it’s because of the starting pitching matchup, with Boston sending Jon Lester (10-7, 3.60 ERA) against Andy Sonnanstine, who spent the last 2½ months in Triple-A after starting the season 6-7 with a 6.61 ERA. However, dig a little deeper and you’ll see some very interesting trends.
First off, Sonnanstine’s overall numbers in the bigs this year are awful, but at home, he’s 5-0 with a 4.54 ERA in six starts. Going back to last year, the Rays are 16-5 when Sonnanstine pitches at Tropicana Field, and they’ve won four straight games that the right-hander has started against the Red Sox, including a 6-2 home win on May 1. On the flip side, the Red Sox have come up empty in Lester’s last five starts against Tampa Bay. Two of the losses came last year in the ALCS, and the other three came this year by scores of 7-2, 14-5 and 4-2.
Also, as well as Lester has been pitching lately – and he’s been tremendous – Boston is just 5-3 in his last eight starts, including 2-3 on the road. Finally, there’s one startling negative stat that applies to the Red Sox: They’ve lost 12 of their last 13 road games to teams with a winning record!
Way too much value with Tampa Bay to pass up tonight, so take the plus money.
(based on a 1? to a 10? Rating)
3? TAMPA BAY