No offense but im still going to disagree with all of you. Ive spent more hours on craps games then probably just about anyone on this site. I fully understand what you are saying about increasing bets just means you have more money risked into a -ev bet. But the whole game is -ev and in the millions and millions of shooters your going to have your point doinks or your 2-3 throws and your 7 out at a high rate. But every once in awhile your going to catch a magical roll, you cant predict, you dont see it coming, but sure as shit you recognize it when its happening and if you just sit there with the same dumb flat bet thats paid for itself 10 to 20x over, your an idiot in my book. Its an oppertunity to get aggressive with profits and the only way to profit from this -ev game. We use to have an old craps dealer who called these "monster rolls" and would tell the guests: the casino thanks you for not pressing your bets. If you find any box or dealer playing the game you will find that 90 % of them are super aggressive in their style of play bc they know the only way to win is to strike fast and get out
Therein lies your problem. And as long as you believe this, there's nothing anyone can say to you. You simply think there is a way to predict the outcome of a roll, when there is not. In this regard, you're no different than someone that thinks dice setting works, or for that matter, those who believe in things based on blind faith.
i notice if i'm playing aggressive and the hot roll comes, then I win 2-3x more than someone who bets about the same as me but not as aggressive. I assume that goes up exponentially the hotter the roll.
I also notice if i'm playing aggressive and the table is cold, i lose just as much as someone who bets about the same as me.
BUT, if the table is average (maybe 2-3 numbers than 7-out), then I get demolished while the other guy is pretty much staying afloat.
Basically, it's all luck. You don't know what the next roll holds. You get aggressive on hot rolls, you win more on hot rolls. But you get aggressive on a roll you think is going to be hot and isn't, then you are f'd.
From a dealer's standpoint, you want all bettors to be aggressive (hence the statement of thank you for not pressing).....you want your players to make a lot of money or lose it and move on. The big score is how you make your tips and the ones that barely survive do not tip as much (and make you work longer)
I also notice if i'm playing aggressive and the table is cold, i lose just as much as someone who bets about the same as me.
BUT, if the table is average (maybe 2-3 numbers than 7-out), then I get demolished while the other guy is pretty much staying afloat.
Basically, it's all luck. You don't know what the next roll holds. You get aggressive on hot rolls, you win more on hot rolls. But you get aggressive on a roll you think is going to be hot and isn't, then you are f'd.
From a dealer's standpoint, you want all bettors to be aggressive (hence the statement of thank you for not pressing).....you want your players to make a lot of money or lose it and move on. The big score is how you make your tips and the ones that barely survive do not tip as much (and make you work longer)
I don't play craps that often but I press my wagers on a "hot" table. Meaning someone that is hitting the point or numbers more often than not. I either win big or lose what I have in my mind is enough to lose then go home or go play something else. I've had large wins ($12,000 is by far the most I've won, a guy rolled for a long time) but I've also lost many times too. I'm honestly probably down overall in craps...
I will say anytime I personally roll bet the don't pass. You would think I know how to set the dice and roll a 7
I will say anytime I personally roll bet the don't pass. You would think I know how to set the dice and roll a 7
Sorry I don't time the table or only see a hot table and play. Nothing like that, when a roll comes out and let's say the point is a 4. I bet the 6 and 8, back up the 4 full odds and if a 6 or 8 hit I press. If it hits again I press a unit. I keep doing that until he craps out so my wagers get higher. I may sprinkle some on the 5 and 9, rinse repeat on pressing.
If he craps out, I start over and do it again. I hope the shooter gets hot and my presses work out, if I don't I lose
If he craps out, I start over and do it again. I hope the shooter gets hot and my presses work out, if I don't I lose
If a person is hitting numbers a lot, I might press even more or add numbers like 5 and 9. If everyone around the table is crapping out over and over then my wagers go down. So yes and no, if a table is doing well overall (and I have more chips) yes I will bet more because it seems the table is hot.
I'm not understanding the question, do I walk up to a table and the craps table is red because it's on fire? Nope, but if people are doing well I wager more and hope it continues. I'm not sure how else to explain it unless you want to argue to argue.
Your question is how do I know a table is hot. I already answered this, I don't. I fully understand each roll is independent of the previous one. If someone rolls a point 100 times his odd are no better to roll 101 or 7 out. Did I ever say I can predict the next roll?
Craps I play for fun and if I make money great, if I don't great. If someone is rolling a lot of numbers or points I'm going to win and win big because I press over and over and my wagers go up. If they don't hit a bunch of numbers or points I"m going to lose. If a shooter gets HOT and doesn't crap out I win. Good lord this is like talking to a 5 year old.
Do you ever play craps? And if so, do you flat bet? I don't have a problem with that, you could say you only play the hard ways and that's ok too. I forget what you are even arguing about.
Every craps bet is a -EV bet, so if you want to make more money (lose less) at any point in time, then bet less. The less you bet, the better you're going to do in the long run. The best thing to do is not make -EV bets at all.
Now like I said before, if you look at craps as cheap entertainment, then have at it... just don't think wrongly that somehow you are turning a -EV situation into a +EV one.
Bet sizing has 0 effect on your EV. None.
The Truth about Betting Systems
Not only do betting systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it. Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Every spin in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events. In the short run you can fool yourself into thinking a betting system works, by risking a lot to win a little. However, in the long run no betting system can withstand the test of time. The longer you play, the ratio of money lost to money bet will get closer to the expectation for that game.
In the many years that run this site I have received thousands of e-mails from believers in betting systems. Their faith surpasses religious levels. However, in all things, the more ridiculous a belief is the more tenaciously it tends to be held. Gamblers have been looking for a betting system that works for hundreds of years, and yet the casinos are still standing.
Gambler's Fallacy
The biggest gambling myth is that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely to occur. This is known as the “gambler’s fallacy.” Thousands of gamblers have devised betting systems that attempt to exploit the gambler’s fallacy by betting the opposite way of recent outcomes. For example, waiting for three reds in roulette and then betting on black. Hucksters sell “guaranteed” get-rich-quick betting systems that are ultimately based on the gambler’s fallacy. None of them work. If you don’t believe me here is what some other sources say on the topic:
A common gamblers’ fallacy called “the doctrine of the maturity of the chances” (or “Monte Carlo fallacy”) falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of “systems” have been invented by gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler’s neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays. — Encyclopedia Britannica (look under “gambling”)
No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise... — Probability and Measure (second edition, page 94) by Patrick Billingsley
The number of ‘guaranteed’ betting systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamics. — The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/
Of course you don't. And yet that's exactly what you said in your first post. Then when asked about it, you started talking about your strategy (which had nothing to do with what was asked). Maybe you should actually read what you wrote...good lord, this is like talking to a 5 year old (I figure I'll throw your nonsense right back at you).
As for if I've ever played craps? Yeah, for over 30 years. Thanks for asking.
If I'm playing and winning the table is hot, if I'm not winning the table is cold. I still have yet to have you "prove me wrong." I can't walk up to a table and know it's hot, never said that and you keep implying I did. Call it whatever you want to call it but when the table is going well I'm winning.
For the dense people like me what would you call a table that a player has rolled for an hour if you don't call it hot? Feel like you are arguing for no reason. But enjoy
