Time to boast....list you middles/scalps for this evening here.

Hitman26 · Feb 1, 2005

Wanti:

You have NFL data don't you? I'm thinking about trying something new this year. I gonna try to tease all the favs that are -9.5 to -7.5 and buy back the other sides on the moneylines and go for the polish scalps (Obviously getting the line to 2.5 or under). I have to crunch the numbers but I'm thinking that if I can line shop for the best moneylines it would be a winning deal.

TheGeneral+ · Feb 1, 2005

Fishhead said:
5-7%??????????????????????

What figure does that represent?

Isn't it pretty common knowledge that ony 5-7% of all gamblers make money longterm?

Fishhead · Feb 1, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
General I would say they make up all but maybe 2 or 3 players in total, not just percentages points.

I don't think anyone wins long term betting one way. But I would concede that maybe two or three people in the world could.And then I think they would have to have info on some fixed games as well, and no enough to not get greedy and stick to the plan.

WHAT?

THATS MORE ABSURD THAN THE GENERAL SAYING 5-7% WIN LONGTERM.

Both of you must be hitting the bottle tonight to both make such statements.

TheGeneral+ · Feb 1, 2005

Then tell us what percentage of gamblers make money longterm? I was assuming based on alot of talk here.

Fisher, are you saying more or less than 6%?

wantitall4moi · Feb 1, 2005

Hitman... I looked into something like that once. the difficulty is finding those mid level faves. with the 6 it is actually profitaable (or has been the last couple years) because seemingly you get enough ML winners to make it so. Ironically the teaser prtion is the money burner.

I do not have the results off the top of my head. But I am pretty sure it was almost as profitable betting the ML dogs, and NOT betting the teaser. Something a guy at Covers and I fooled around with a couple years ago.

About the same time I started betting the runlines and the alt runllines in baseball. Looking to avoid a one run game and getting polish middled.

I have had a great deal of success doing that actually. But it s still not fool proof. So I am not surei f it is more luck than abilty to weedout match ups that have a high probability of of landing on one run.

But in certain situations it can be very profittable. But a lot more games in bases, and the pay outs are a lot better than teaser odds in football. So more chances, and better odds makes up the great deal of difference there.

Fishhead · Feb 1, 2005

The General said:
Then tell us what percentage of gamblers make money longterm? I was assuming based on alot of talk here.

Fisher, are you saying more or less than 6%?

Sportsbetting........an estimate of 2% would be closer than 6%.

Obviously nobody knows exactly.

I can tell you this.........of the 5,000+ sportsbettors we tracked at the Sands, less than 2.5% were in the BLACK.

I believe this is what many believe to be about the right figure...........2-3%.

jjgold · Feb 1, 2005

Wanti I agree

No one wins betting one way long term and I mean no one

Rainbow · Feb 1, 2005

Dont know the percentage, but I know alot of people that win long term betting, and I"m not talking about middles either. they been doing it forever. remember when you beat the line you beat the game. they do that consistenly.

Fishhead · Feb 1, 2005

Rainbow said:
Dont know the percentage, but I know alot of people that win long term betting, and I"m not talking about middles either. they been doing it forever. remember when you beat the line you beat the game. they do that consistenly.

Exactly!!

If there were only 2-3 like mentioned, I would be in some fairly good company. :suomi:

wantitall4moi · Feb 1, 2005

Fish I have known a lot of guys that bet. A lot of guys that are good cappers. But I have yet to have one prove to me that he has a won money in his life betting solely one way on every game.I can cap alittle bit. But I still know I cannot pick more winners than loser versus the vig to win money consistantly. Bad beats happen, fluke plays happen. Just those little things are generally enough to kill most people's advanatges.

I also bet 3000 or more bets a year. So for me my expectation at the minimal 53% would represent a modest profit assuming a static -107 vig rate. (at -107 52 is about break even) So I only need to do one percent better than that. So while it sounds easy, is it? I am not so sure.

That was the gyst of my other post. You gain a half a percent in win expectaion for 3 cents in vig. Over a few thousand bets, that can mean a lot. But I am still not sure that it is enough to make poeple winners long term.

TheGeneral+ · Feb 1, 2005

We are on same page Fishgold. My question was about the % of that small % of winners are soley scalpers and middlers.

Fishhead · Feb 1, 2005

WANT---That is absurd, you are leaving me speechless.

---FISH---

wantitall4moi · Feb 1, 2005

Fish- I know you probably cannot check it, and maybe do not know for sure. but do you think that your opinionated bets are profitable? I would have to figure you have made a hundred thousand best or so in your life. Do you think you have won enoug of those t say you are ahead?

Again not sure if you even know. I know I don't. I have made a lot of bets in my day that were opinionated. But even with what I would call some talent. I am not sure if I am ahead or not.
If I had to bet my life on it, I would say no. And that would be counting a HUGE future cash on Fla Marlins a couple year ago at 70-1. Which in theory I guess is opinionated, even though at the time it was made to get hedge bets off, but due to ridiculous odds on Giants and Cubs turned into a let it ride sort of bet...

Hitman26 · Feb 1, 2005

I've gotta agree with the Coach:

I thought I had discovered the holy grail of beating the line 2 months ago, and now I'm trying to scalp/middle my way out of the monster figure I lost in December and January. I pissed away all of my profits from last year and went in the hole in mid January. My goal is to get back to even before June 1st.

JJ is always right, but I just don't listen

Rainbow · Feb 1, 2005

Wanti, I respect you alot but you are not even in the ball park. I am not going to name these people but I know them all. trust me on this one I know them all. dont go bet nobody on this, beause you defintely will lose.

TheGeneral+ · Feb 1, 2005

I guess 2% are scalpers/middlers and 2% are real game cappers. I can't be to far off. Then again, both categories prob do a little of both.

Fishhead · Feb 1, 2005

wantitall4moi said:
Fish I have known a lot of guys that bet. A lot of guys that are good cappers. But I have yet to have one prove to me that he has a won money in his life betting solely one way on every game.I can cap alittle bit. But I still know I cannot pick more winners than loser versus the vig to win money consistantly. Bad beats happen, fluke plays happen. Just those little things are generally enough to kill most people's advanatges.

I also bet 3000 or more bets a year. So for me my expectation at the minimal 53% would represent a modest profit assuming a static -107 vig rate. (at -107 52 is about break even) So I only need to do one percent better than that. So while it sounds easy, is it? I am not so sure.

That was the gyst of my other post. You gain a half a percent in win expectaion for 3 cents in vig. Over a few thousand bets, that can mean a lot. But I am still not sure that it is enough to make poeple winners long term.

Been doing this 25 years.

I can assure that for the last 15 years I am well ahead of the game.......taking JUST flat betting into consideration.

Yes

In all modesty, would really not like to discuss this any further.

---FISH---

HacheMan · Feb 1, 2005

General, can't you at least find an Egg McMuffin picture with Sausage instead of ham? :icon_conf

lol

jeffksu · Feb 1, 2005

hitman.....????for you....with all that going on just today...just give me a ballpark on how much one can make daily....man you've got it going on....after the day is done you sit back and say man was well worth it or are you trying just to make a little each day to get back to where you were...thanks for the info...very interesting stuff....thanks jeffksu

wantitall4moi · Feb 1, 2005

OK I will have to conced this one I guess. But reputations and stories aside. Until i see verifaible proof one way or the other I still have my thoughts.

The biggest name of them all (again remain namelss) bets both ways. be it to fool people or set up a buy back or whatever. IMO he is not betting on opinion. Sometime maybe. But back in the day enough of the games bet both ways due to line manipulation hit bth ways. So even if they bought back strong, they still reaped the benefits on the weak side play because it hit too.

It doesn't take many "lucky" breaks like that to set you up for along haul.

Just like with some of my "set up" bets. Sometimes I am forced to "eat" them, but if they win more than they lose I still consdier it luck and not skill. Even if I bet the team I "liked" better first, knowing that I might possibly have to hold that position.

Maybe it is semantics, maybe I am just too cynical.

But I think I know alittle bt about gambling, and I still have yet to find a secret formula or pattern whereby I can bet one way and know that I will win wthout fear.

But I will concede to the guys that say they know guys that do it.

So to answer the question orignialy posed. I will chane my answer to 1% :howdy: