Tied 1-1 In The Series Anyone Want Miami At +240?

[crudebar]

Very true. Good observation. I wonder if the futures liability was the opposite if we'd still be seeing +240 for Miami in this spot. I think prob not

Lines are moved by money.

But Denver bringing in more money is what is expected. The favorite normally draws more of the betting action.

If I was forced to always bet blind I would always bet the underdog. Obviously this would still lose you money over the long haul but would lose you less than ALWAYS betting favorites as their price tends to be inflated.

 

[crudebar]

Vegas sets a good line. If you see some +300 dog move to even money something is very very wrong.(before event has started)

You will very rarely but once and awhile see this in the lower rung ranks in tennis(basically ITF and to much lesser extent challenegers) basically means the fix is in and its known about..

This is when books will remove the event and investigations start.

 

[five-head]

Lines are moved by money.

But Denver bringing in more money is what is expected. The favorite normally draws more of the betting action.

If I was forced to always bet blind I would always bet the underdog. Obviously this would still lose you money over the long haul but would lose you less than ALWAYS betting favorites as their price tends to be inflated.

Correct but don't you think the futures money liability on Denver influences the current series price?

 

[crudebar]

Correct but don't you think the futures money liability on Denver influences the current series price?

Remember its not the amounts bet but the amounts won.

Heavy money on Denver series win is divided by close to 4. So 8k on Denver only produces a 2k liability. Even 1k on Miami produces a larger liability than 8k on Denver.

The series line moved slightly for Denver before game 1. I believe it started at Denver-375 and landed at around 4. So basically the liabilities on either side were as predicted.

 

[five-head]

Right i was speaking of 'futures' money liability on Denver, not money wagered on this particular series.

 

[crudebar]

Right i was speaking of 'futures' money liability on Denver, not money wagered on this particular series.

If you had some gulf like disparity on future wagers that you had to adjust ur Finals lines that would also have to effect point spreads of each game---than you really have to fire ur odds maker. Haha

The opening series line and the current line all look in accordance to how both teams are perceived. At least to myself.

 

[five-head]

If you had some gulf like disparity on future wagers that you had to adjust ur Finals lines that would also have to effect point spreads of each game---than you really have to fire ur odds maker. Haha

The opening series line and the current line all look in accordance to how both teams are perceived. At least to myself.

All the top 5 or 6 high liability Stanley cup future teams are eliminated. With the nba Denver is clearly at the top of the money liability. That's worrisome for my Denver futures bet ?

 

[crudebar]

All the top 5 or 6 high liability Stanley cup future teams are eliminated. With the nba Denver is clearly at the top of the money liability. That's worrisome for my Denver futures bet ?

Off the top of my head---i think probably the worst outcome for books would have been a Celtics, Bucks or probably the worst Lakers championship.

 

[five-head]

Off the top of my head---i think probably the worst outcome for books would have been a Celtics, Bucks or probably the worst Lakers championship.

Denver 33.4%
Boston 12.9% X
Warriors 9.5% X
Miami 8.9%
Phoenix 8.3% X
Lakers 6.9% X

All other teams below the Lakers

 

[crudebar]

Denver 33.4%
Boston 12.9% X
Warriors 9.5% X
Miami 8.9%
Phoenix 8.3% X
Lakers 6.9% X

Yeah. But thinking the odds people got.

Its not the money bet put the pay-outs(liability)

 

[five-head]

You may be right though. That above is just the most bet money

 

[crudebar]

Denver 33.4%
Boston 12.9% X
Warriors 9.5% X
Miami 8.9%
Phoenix 8.3% X
Lakers 6.9% X

All other teams below the Lakers

Where are these numbers coming from and at what point?

Have a hard time wrapping my head around Denver getting 33.4 percent of all futures action.

 

[five-head]

Where are these numbers coming from and at what point?

Have a hard time wrapping my head around Denver getting 33.4 percent of all futures action.

BetMGM and it includes all futures wagers to this point. I can show the tweet if you want from a employee at the site

 

[five-head]

Where are these numbers coming from and at what point?

Have a hard time wrapping my head around Denver getting 33.4 percent of all futures action.

 

[crudebar]

BetMGM and it includes all futures wagers to this point. I can show the tweet if you want from a employee at the site

Ah. That makes more sense. I am sure a lot of that action on Denver was taken after the sweep of Lakers and before game 1 of Finals.

So not exactly an appealing price on Denver.

 

[crudebar]

Golden state being that high also makes sense even with them losing 2nd round(so no money coming in on them after)

Glamor team defending champion, etc.

 

[five-head]

Ah. That makes more sense. I am sure a lot of that action on Denver was taken after the sweep of Lakers and before game 1 of Finals.

So not exactly an appealing price on Denver.

Could very well be true. I'd have to go back and look at the numbers before the playoffs started

 

[crudebar]

Could very well be true. I'd have to go back and look at the numbers before the playoffs started

Yeah. A team like Milwaukee will be low because no new money after losing 1st round.

What would be interesting is the money being bet before play-offs started.

 

[Avocado33]

Spo is a very good coach but hard to say he is head and shoulders above everyone else.

I mean he did lose 4 in a row to Spurs when he had an equally talented team with The Heatales.

Also did get swept by Milwaukee a few years back in first round. Even though Bucks won championship they proved they were still highly beatable.

That said this would be the most impressive run to a championship i can ever think of....

Head and shoulders is a stretch but I think he has proven to be a great coach

 

[Avocado33]

To play the devil's card.

One could ask if this Miami team is this good. WTF was it doing flirty with missing the play-offs all together? Where was this coaching over 82 games? You were 3 minutes away from a hugely disappointing year. Losing b2b home games to the likes of ATL and Chicago.

This is why i hate winning on small margins. There is something wrong. I said same with Bucks---you stomp to that 2021 title and its ridiculous to fire Bud. But the fact is even then you played on small margins and caught breaks.

They underperformed in the regular season. Some of that is coaching obviously, but they weren’t always healthy either and shot almost flukeishly bad IMO Spo can’t put the ball in the hoop