I Agree With You Tomto I Sell A Big Rat With Big Al............just Like The Bungles He Was Touting Hard When The Obvious Play Was The Patriots......the Obvious Play Here Is The Yankees I Have A Feeling For Some Games He Sides Up With The Books To Even The Betting Fields..i Have My Eye Very Close On This Issue And If Thats The Case I 'm Going To Make A Fortune!!!!!
Dave Cokin
Take "(970) ARI D'backs"
Check out the stats, and you'll see that the Diamondbacks are superior to the Cubs statistically against lefties. Considering this Arizona team seldom outstats anyone, that's actually pretty signifcant. Ted Lilly has been solid for the Cubs, and grades out higher than 'Zona counterpart Doug Davis. But Davis has fared well against the Cubs and despite his pedestrian stuff, the tall southpaw finds a way to keep his team in it more often than not. I like the D-Backs to capture Game Two of this NLDS.
Take "(970) ARI D'backs"
Check out the stats, and you'll see that the Diamondbacks are superior to the Cubs statistically against lefties. Considering this Arizona team seldom outstats anyone, that's actually pretty signifcant. Ted Lilly has been solid for the Cubs, and grades out higher than 'Zona counterpart Doug Davis. But Davis has fared well against the Cubs and despite his pedestrian stuff, the tall southpaw finds a way to keep his team in it more often than not. I like the D-Backs to capture Game Two of this NLDS.
Dan Gordon early nfl
Bears +3 ½ or more over Packers: Small Play
Normally this would be a normal or even possibly a large play but since I have seen some bad things with the Bears, I am keeping this as a small play. For one thing, I really thought that the Bears would make a better showing last week off of a Sunday night nationally televised rout loss to the Cowboys. The Bears blew a ten point fourth quarter lead to the Lions and gave up a record 34 points in the fourth quarter of their 27-37 loss in that game. The Bears also have numerous key defensive players out.
However, what stands out this week and has gotten me to back the Bears is that they are a very legitimate must-win underdog this week. The Bears are defending NFC champs and for them to miss the playoffs this season would mark this season as a total disaster. Right now, the Bears are three games behind the Packers. A loss here not only would put them four games back but also would put them two games behind the Packers in the divisional records and make it almost impossible for them to win a tiebreaker and be pretty much out of the playoff running. Whatever effort the Bears have left in them will be given on Sunday night in Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Packers continue to win with an ancient Brett Favre not only playing way beyond himself, but doing so without any running game support. Evenutally, hopefully this week, this will catch up with the Packers.
In addition:
1) The Bears have covered five of their last six revenge games as underdogs (the Packers won the season finale in Chicago last year).
2) The Packers come from two straight emotional up games.
3) The Bears have won three straight in Green Bay.
4) The Bears are a fresh due up, while the Packers are a fresh due down. The Bears have revenge, number (power rating), coverage, and fatigue (Packers up last two) working in their favor in this clashing due combo.
Again, take +3 ½ as soon as you see it.
Bears +3 ½ or more over Packers: Small Play
Normally this would be a normal or even possibly a large play but since I have seen some bad things with the Bears, I am keeping this as a small play. For one thing, I really thought that the Bears would make a better showing last week off of a Sunday night nationally televised rout loss to the Cowboys. The Bears blew a ten point fourth quarter lead to the Lions and gave up a record 34 points in the fourth quarter of their 27-37 loss in that game. The Bears also have numerous key defensive players out.
However, what stands out this week and has gotten me to back the Bears is that they are a very legitimate must-win underdog this week. The Bears are defending NFC champs and for them to miss the playoffs this season would mark this season as a total disaster. Right now, the Bears are three games behind the Packers. A loss here not only would put them four games back but also would put them two games behind the Packers in the divisional records and make it almost impossible for them to win a tiebreaker and be pretty much out of the playoff running. Whatever effort the Bears have left in them will be given on Sunday night in Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Packers continue to win with an ancient Brett Favre not only playing way beyond himself, but doing so without any running game support. Evenutally, hopefully this week, this will catch up with the Packers.
In addition:
1) The Bears have covered five of their last six revenge games as underdogs (the Packers won the season finale in Chicago last year).
2) The Packers come from two straight emotional up games.
3) The Bears have won three straight in Green Bay.
4) The Bears are a fresh due up, while the Packers are a fresh due down. The Bears have revenge, number (power rating), coverage, and fatigue (Packers up last two) working in their favor in this clashing due combo.
Again, take +3 ½ as soon as you see it.
COMPS:
Valley Sports
FREE MLB BASEBALL
Thursday 10-04-2007
Colorado Over Philadelphia
Dave Cokin
Take "(970) ARI D'backs"
Check out the stats, and you'll see that the Diamondbacks are superior to the Cubs statistically against lefties. Considering this Arizona team seldom outstats anyone, that's actually pretty signifcant. Ted Lilly has been solid for the Cubs, and grades out higher than 'Zona counterpart Doug Davis. But Davis has fared well against the Cubs and despite his pedestrian stuff, the tall southpaw finds a way to keep his team in it more often than not. I like the D-Backs to capture Game Two of this NLDS.
Jim Feist
Take "(970) ARI D'backs"
Game two of the NLDS series between he Cubs and Diamondbacks. Cubs will go with lefty Ted Lilly who pitched just two innings in his last start versus the Reds. Lilly has been one of the star pitchers for the Cubs this season, with a 15-8 record and 3.83 era. Lilly has been just as effective away from home, posting a 6-3 mark with 3.77 era. In his one start at Arizona this season, Lilly absorbed the loss in as the D'backs beat the cubs, 3-1. In fact, that loss was to today's starter, Doug Davis. Davis, also a southpaw, was a very nice 8-3 at home this year with a 4.75 era. The D'backs did that one better, winning 14 of Davis's 17 home starts. Expect a tough pitched contest here and we won't be surprised to see this one come down to a late inning win with the edge to the D'backs
GAMBLERS DATA
COMP PLAY THURSDAY :
CFB > Kentucky/SC ov 28 1st half
MLB > Phils 1st half-148
Joe Wiz comp = Under 8.5 Cubs
Jimmy Boyd
FREE WINNER FOR 10/4
MLB
1 Unit on New York/Cleveland OVER 8.5 (Wang and Sabathia)
Wang is 10-1 OVER in road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Sabathia is 16-5 OVER when playing on Thursday his last 21 Thursday starts and the Indians are 25-12 OVER when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons. 4 of 6 games in this matchup have gone OVER the total this season. The oddsmakers have set the number low with strong aces on the mound, but it appears they have set it a little too low. Take the OVER.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators Oct 4 2007 8:05PM
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche
Reason: The Avalanche did play last night but they will be too much to handle for the Predators. Last season the Avalanche missed the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons and in the summer they added Ryan Smyth and Scott Hannan to make sure it didn't happen this season. The Avalanche closed out the season winning 5 straight games and will start a new season the same way. Nashville has been one of the league's better teams over the last couple of season but in the offseason they moved several of their key players. Nashville lowered their payroll and will suffer in the win column this season. Two team's headed in different directions meet up tonight and the Avalanche will win it easily.
Valley Sports
FREE MLB BASEBALL
Thursday 10-04-2007
Colorado Over Philadelphia
Dave Cokin
Take "(970) ARI D'backs"
Check out the stats, and you'll see that the Diamondbacks are superior to the Cubs statistically against lefties. Considering this Arizona team seldom outstats anyone, that's actually pretty signifcant. Ted Lilly has been solid for the Cubs, and grades out higher than 'Zona counterpart Doug Davis. But Davis has fared well against the Cubs and despite his pedestrian stuff, the tall southpaw finds a way to keep his team in it more often than not. I like the D-Backs to capture Game Two of this NLDS.
Jim Feist
Take "(970) ARI D'backs"
Game two of the NLDS series between he Cubs and Diamondbacks. Cubs will go with lefty Ted Lilly who pitched just two innings in his last start versus the Reds. Lilly has been one of the star pitchers for the Cubs this season, with a 15-8 record and 3.83 era. Lilly has been just as effective away from home, posting a 6-3 mark with 3.77 era. In his one start at Arizona this season, Lilly absorbed the loss in as the D'backs beat the cubs, 3-1. In fact, that loss was to today's starter, Doug Davis. Davis, also a southpaw, was a very nice 8-3 at home this year with a 4.75 era. The D'backs did that one better, winning 14 of Davis's 17 home starts. Expect a tough pitched contest here and we won't be surprised to see this one come down to a late inning win with the edge to the D'backs
GAMBLERS DATA
COMP PLAY THURSDAY :
CFB > Kentucky/SC ov 28 1st half
MLB > Phils 1st half-148
Joe Wiz comp = Under 8.5 Cubs
Jimmy Boyd
FREE WINNER FOR 10/4
MLB
1 Unit on New York/Cleveland OVER 8.5 (Wang and Sabathia)
Wang is 10-1 OVER in road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Sabathia is 16-5 OVER when playing on Thursday his last 21 Thursday starts and the Indians are 25-12 OVER when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons. 4 of 6 games in this matchup have gone OVER the total this season. The oddsmakers have set the number low with strong aces on the mound, but it appears they have set it a little too low. Take the OVER.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators Oct 4 2007 8:05PM
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche
Reason: The Avalanche did play last night but they will be too much to handle for the Predators. Last season the Avalanche missed the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons and in the summer they added Ryan Smyth and Scott Hannan to make sure it didn't happen this season. The Avalanche closed out the season winning 5 straight games and will start a new season the same way. Nashville has been one of the league's better teams over the last couple of season but in the offseason they moved several of their key players. Nashville lowered their payroll and will suffer in the win column this season. Two team's headed in different directions meet up tonight and the Avalanche will win it easily.
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at CLEVELAND (+110)
As good as Chien-Ming Wang and CC Sabathia are, we just don't see this being a low-scoring game.
Wang's road ERA is near 5 for the season, so you can expect the Indians to get a few off the Cy Young candidate tonight.
4 of the 6 meetings between the teams this season went OVER the posted total, and 6 of the last 10 mettings between the teams played in Cleveland have also sailed OVER the posted price.
With both teams featuring some potent sticks in the lineup, and the Yankees on a 7-2-1 OVER clip their last 10 games of the regular season - including their final 3 - we will look for the bats to have their way against the pitching tonight, and for Game One of this series to be a high-scoring one.
Play the OVER in Cleveland tonight.
2♦ OVER
NY Yankees at CLEVELAND (+110)
As good as Chien-Ming Wang and CC Sabathia are, we just don't see this being a low-scoring game.
Wang's road ERA is near 5 for the season, so you can expect the Indians to get a few off the Cy Young candidate tonight.
4 of the 6 meetings between the teams this season went OVER the posted total, and 6 of the last 10 mettings between the teams played in Cleveland have also sailed OVER the posted price.
With both teams featuring some potent sticks in the lineup, and the Yankees on a 7-2-1 OVER clip their last 10 games of the regular season - including their final 3 - we will look for the bats to have their way against the pitching tonight, and for Game One of this series to be a high-scoring one.
Play the OVER in Cleveland tonight.
2♦ OVER
SOLID SERVICE:
LVTR
3-0 SWEEP LAST NIGHT
6-0-1 FOR THE WEEK
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) POWER PLAY: SOUTH CAROLINA -3 (ALWAYS BUY THE HOOK). Don't be fooled by all the hype surrounding Kentucky. How have we won for you the last two nights going against the public? It was simply a matter of looking at the level of competition each side has faced and as we look closer, all these SEC leading statistics have been against teams that shouldn't be in their class or teams that have been struggling. The Kentucky Wildcats lead the SEC in scoring this season and are second in passing yards yet they accumulated those great numbers against FAU, which is a notch above a community college in S. Florida. They faced a struggling Louisville team who was cruising on last year's success on the perception they were any good this year. Lets add powerhouses like Kent state, and Eastern Kentucky that UK has gained this reputation as an offensive powerhouse against. If Kentucky gets one stamp of approval you could give it to them for the Arkansas win. Now on the other side of the coin we have South Carolina who has faced #1 LSU, Mississippi state and Georgia. With that on their plate, South Carolina Gamecocks leads the nation in pass defense which means trouble for Kentucky as the pass is Kentucky's primary weapon, South Carolina are second in the conference in yards allowed. Spurrier is 14-0 vs. Kentucky. QB Andre Woodson has never beaten South Carolina.
SC will be starting freshmen quarterback Chris Smelley in place of fifth-year senior Blake Mitchell. Smelley did a good job stepping up with 279 yards and two touchdown passes against the Bulldogs’ 48th-ranked pass defense with a 38-21 win. Look for Kentucky to finally see a defense that will be up to the level of competition and we expect a comfortable ATS win. The line is in that gray area between the 3 and 4 so put up the extra 10% and buy the hook as an insurance policy and secure your wager for tonight.
LVTR
3-0 SWEEP LAST NIGHT
6-0-1 FOR THE WEEK
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) POWER PLAY: SOUTH CAROLINA -3 (ALWAYS BUY THE HOOK). Don't be fooled by all the hype surrounding Kentucky. How have we won for you the last two nights going against the public? It was simply a matter of looking at the level of competition each side has faced and as we look closer, all these SEC leading statistics have been against teams that shouldn't be in their class or teams that have been struggling. The Kentucky Wildcats lead the SEC in scoring this season and are second in passing yards yet they accumulated those great numbers against FAU, which is a notch above a community college in S. Florida. They faced a struggling Louisville team who was cruising on last year's success on the perception they were any good this year. Lets add powerhouses like Kent state, and Eastern Kentucky that UK has gained this reputation as an offensive powerhouse against. If Kentucky gets one stamp of approval you could give it to them for the Arkansas win. Now on the other side of the coin we have South Carolina who has faced #1 LSU, Mississippi state and Georgia. With that on their plate, South Carolina Gamecocks leads the nation in pass defense which means trouble for Kentucky as the pass is Kentucky's primary weapon, South Carolina are second in the conference in yards allowed. Spurrier is 14-0 vs. Kentucky. QB Andre Woodson has never beaten South Carolina.
SC will be starting freshmen quarterback Chris Smelley in place of fifth-year senior Blake Mitchell. Smelley did a good job stepping up with 279 yards and two touchdown passes against the Bulldogs’ 48th-ranked pass defense with a 38-21 win. Look for Kentucky to finally see a defense that will be up to the level of competition and we expect a comfortable ATS win. The line is in that gray area between the 3 and 4 so put up the extra 10% and buy the hook as an insurance policy and secure your wager for tonight.
LARRY IS VERY VERY GOOD IN BASES-- SUX IN FOOTBALL:
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (1st of the '07 postseason)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 3:05 ET. It's playoff time and handicapping games is a little different. There's a case to be made for both rookie starters on Thursday, as Colorado has gone 6-2 when Morales starts (including 3-0 on the road) while the Phillies are 13-7 in Kendrick's 20 starts, including 9-2 here at home. With a 4-2 win in Game 1, the Rockies have now won 15 of their last 16 games and look like a "team of destiny." However, it's impossible to ignore Philadelphia's great run down the stretch in which the Phillies overtook the Mets. Kendrick was terrible in two starts vs Colorado this year (9 IP / 17 hits / 7 ERs / 7.00 ERA) but how much does that really mean? After all, Jeff Francis owned a 15.12 ERA against the Phillies this season, but outpitched Phillies ace Cole Hamels on Wednesday, allowing four hits with eight strikeouts over six innings! Jimmy Rollins, Case Utley and Ryan Howard combined to go 0-for-11 with eight strikeouts in Game. I'm betting that WON'T happen again and that the Phillies bounce back. I've backed Kendrick a number of times this year with great success and I'll ride him again in this one. Las Vegas Insider on the Phi Phillies.
Good Luck...larry
Larry Ness' 20* ALDS Game of the Year (won 18 of 26 weeks / 261-150 in the regular season!)
My 20* play is on the Cle Indians at 6:35 ET. The Yankees won all six meetings with the Indians during the regular season. New York batted .348 and outscored Cleveland 49-17 to sweep the Indians at home in April and in Cleveland in August. Cleveland hit just .228 while posting an 8.19 ERA in this season's six losses to New York. Cleveland's starter in Game 1 of this series is CC Sabathia, who is 1-7 with a 7.13 ERA in eight career starts against the Yankees. I guess that means it's the Yankees in Game 1? Not so fast. The Indians are 31-13 since the most recent sweep at the hands of the Yankees and Sabathia hasn't met the Yankees since '04 (a lifetime ago!). He was 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA in '07 (team was 23-11) and set career highs for wins, strikeouts (209) and innings (241.0). He's 5-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last six starts (team was 6-0) and 11-4 at Jacobs Field (team was 14-5). Better yet, the Yankees were just terrible vs left-handers away from the Bronx this year, going 5-14 (minus-$1,515)! Wang goes for the Yanks and he also went 19-7 this year (3.70 ERA), while matching his win total from last season. It's hard to argue against Wang, as New York is 44-20 in his starts the last two years but getting Sabathia at home (at this price) is to good to pass up! ALDS Game of the Year 20* Cle Indians.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (1st of the '07 postseason)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 3:05 ET. It's playoff time and handicapping games is a little different. There's a case to be made for both rookie starters on Thursday, as Colorado has gone 6-2 when Morales starts (including 3-0 on the road) while the Phillies are 13-7 in Kendrick's 20 starts, including 9-2 here at home. With a 4-2 win in Game 1, the Rockies have now won 15 of their last 16 games and look like a "team of destiny." However, it's impossible to ignore Philadelphia's great run down the stretch in which the Phillies overtook the Mets. Kendrick was terrible in two starts vs Colorado this year (9 IP / 17 hits / 7 ERs / 7.00 ERA) but how much does that really mean? After all, Jeff Francis owned a 15.12 ERA against the Phillies this season, but outpitched Phillies ace Cole Hamels on Wednesday, allowing four hits with eight strikeouts over six innings! Jimmy Rollins, Case Utley and Ryan Howard combined to go 0-for-11 with eight strikeouts in Game. I'm betting that WON'T happen again and that the Phillies bounce back. I've backed Kendrick a number of times this year with great success and I'll ride him again in this one. Las Vegas Insider on the Phi Phillies.
Good Luck...larry
Larry Ness' 20* ALDS Game of the Year (won 18 of 26 weeks / 261-150 in the regular season!)
My 20* play is on the Cle Indians at 6:35 ET. The Yankees won all six meetings with the Indians during the regular season. New York batted .348 and outscored Cleveland 49-17 to sweep the Indians at home in April and in Cleveland in August. Cleveland hit just .228 while posting an 8.19 ERA in this season's six losses to New York. Cleveland's starter in Game 1 of this series is CC Sabathia, who is 1-7 with a 7.13 ERA in eight career starts against the Yankees. I guess that means it's the Yankees in Game 1? Not so fast. The Indians are 31-13 since the most recent sweep at the hands of the Yankees and Sabathia hasn't met the Yankees since '04 (a lifetime ago!). He was 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA in '07 (team was 23-11) and set career highs for wins, strikeouts (209) and innings (241.0). He's 5-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last six starts (team was 6-0) and 11-4 at Jacobs Field (team was 14-5). Better yet, the Yankees were just terrible vs left-handers away from the Bronx this year, going 5-14 (minus-$1,515)! Wang goes for the Yanks and he also went 19-7 this year (3.70 ERA), while matching his win total from last season. It's hard to argue against Wang, as New York is 44-20 in his starts the last two years but getting Sabathia at home (at this price) is to good to pass up! ALDS Game of the Year 20* Cle Indians.
Good Luck...Larry
THE WUNDERDOG
Game: Colorado at Philadelphia (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Colorado +135
This game is hard to figure out. There is tremendous value on the Rockies here. The Rockies will come into this game with a 15-1 record over their last 16 games, and have dominated RHP the entire season. The Rockies are now 21-4 in their last 25 against RHP and it doesn't end there. The Rockies, playing at hitter friendly Coors Field, have the lowest ERA of any National League team since the All-Star break. They start Franklin Morales today, who didn't allow a run in his only start against the Phillies, and is pitching to a 1.23 ERA in his last four outings, and the Rockies have won his last five starts. The Phillies have done the bulk of their good work against RHP, and have struggled to a sub-.500 record against LHP. Kyle Kendrick has had a good season, but has been torched by the Rockies to the tune of 17 hits in nine innings over two starts, where the Rockies combined to score 19 runs. That is the other problem the Phillies face here. The Phillies bullpen has carried gasoline to the mound of late. Kendrick has pitched less than seven innings in five of his 20 starts. The Philly pen has served up 25 runs in his last five starts. Compare that to the Rockies’ pen that has allowed four in Morales last five starts. This line is completely out of whack, so we will ride the value and play the Rockies.
Game: Colorado at Philadelphia (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Colorado +135
This game is hard to figure out. There is tremendous value on the Rockies here. The Rockies will come into this game with a 15-1 record over their last 16 games, and have dominated RHP the entire season. The Rockies are now 21-4 in their last 25 against RHP and it doesn't end there. The Rockies, playing at hitter friendly Coors Field, have the lowest ERA of any National League team since the All-Star break. They start Franklin Morales today, who didn't allow a run in his only start against the Phillies, and is pitching to a 1.23 ERA in his last four outings, and the Rockies have won his last five starts. The Phillies have done the bulk of their good work against RHP, and have struggled to a sub-.500 record against LHP. Kyle Kendrick has had a good season, but has been torched by the Rockies to the tune of 17 hits in nine innings over two starts, where the Rockies combined to score 19 runs. That is the other problem the Phillies face here. The Phillies bullpen has carried gasoline to the mound of late. Kendrick has pitched less than seven innings in five of his 20 starts. The Philly pen has served up 25 runs in his last five starts. Compare that to the Rockies’ pen that has allowed four in Morales last five starts. This line is completely out of whack, so we will ride the value and play the Rockies.
MALINSKY:
PICK: South Carolina
Your pick will be graded at: -3.5
EXPERT: David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 4* SOUTH CAROLINA over KENTUCKY
We certainly tip our caps to what Rich Brooks has been able to do at Kentucky, turning around what had truly been a moribund program. But now the marketplace is giving them too much credit, and that gives us the ability to take advantage of the excellent matchups to the Gamecocks in this one.
First let’s address the market, and the best way to do so is to establish a historical perspective. This will be the third meeting between these programs since Steve Spurrier came to Columbia, with South Carolina winning 44-16 as -12.5 on this field two years ago, and then 24-17 as -4.5 at Lexington last October. We remember both games because we had the Gamecocks as 4* plays each time, and note that LY’s win was easier than the final score would suggest – Carolina led 10-0 at halftime, and 24-10 before a late back-door score was allowed, with the line of scrimmage being dominated to the tune of 190-62 in rushing yards. And of extreme importance was how the Gamecock defense shut down Andre Woodson & Co. on their own field.
Kentucky scored two TD’s in that loss, the first coming when the Wildcats were down 17-0 in the third quarter, and Brooks rolled the dice successfully on a fake punt after another drive had stalled. The other came when they were down 24-7 with less than three minutes remaining, getting set up by a 63-yard pass. It does not get any easier this time, especially in front of a rabid crowd at night, and facing a veteran South Carolina secondary that will have several players eventually playing on Sunday’s. The Gamecocks rate #2 in the nation in pass efficiency defense so far this season, second only to LSU, and through three SEC games they are allowing only 42.4 percent completions and an outstanding 4.5 yards per pass attempt, with more interceptions than TD passes allowed. There is so much quality depth that seven different players have started at least one game so far, and there is perhaps no better compliment than the one given to them by Carolina WR Kenny McKinley - ”I go versus them (in practice) and I’m like, ‘Man, no other team can be this strong.’”
If you take away the strength of Kentucky, which is Woodson and the passing game, this is still a team that is nothing special. The Wildcats had exciting rallies to beat Louisville and Arkansas, but in those games they were out-gained each time, with the defense allowing 467 yards to the Razorbacks and 495 to the Razorbacks. Even Kent State was able to pile up 463, with four turnovers keeping the Golden Flashes from getting more points on the board. This is an average team that has a couple of great skill players, and has gone +7 in turnover ratio so far. They are not good enough to beat this class of SEC opponent on the road.
PICK: South Carolina
Your pick will be graded at: -3.5
EXPERT: David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 4* SOUTH CAROLINA over KENTUCKY
We certainly tip our caps to what Rich Brooks has been able to do at Kentucky, turning around what had truly been a moribund program. But now the marketplace is giving them too much credit, and that gives us the ability to take advantage of the excellent matchups to the Gamecocks in this one.
First let’s address the market, and the best way to do so is to establish a historical perspective. This will be the third meeting between these programs since Steve Spurrier came to Columbia, with South Carolina winning 44-16 as -12.5 on this field two years ago, and then 24-17 as -4.5 at Lexington last October. We remember both games because we had the Gamecocks as 4* plays each time, and note that LY’s win was easier than the final score would suggest – Carolina led 10-0 at halftime, and 24-10 before a late back-door score was allowed, with the line of scrimmage being dominated to the tune of 190-62 in rushing yards. And of extreme importance was how the Gamecock defense shut down Andre Woodson & Co. on their own field.
Kentucky scored two TD’s in that loss, the first coming when the Wildcats were down 17-0 in the third quarter, and Brooks rolled the dice successfully on a fake punt after another drive had stalled. The other came when they were down 24-7 with less than three minutes remaining, getting set up by a 63-yard pass. It does not get any easier this time, especially in front of a rabid crowd at night, and facing a veteran South Carolina secondary that will have several players eventually playing on Sunday’s. The Gamecocks rate #2 in the nation in pass efficiency defense so far this season, second only to LSU, and through three SEC games they are allowing only 42.4 percent completions and an outstanding 4.5 yards per pass attempt, with more interceptions than TD passes allowed. There is so much quality depth that seven different players have started at least one game so far, and there is perhaps no better compliment than the one given to them by Carolina WR Kenny McKinley - ”I go versus them (in practice) and I’m like, ‘Man, no other team can be this strong.’”
If you take away the strength of Kentucky, which is Woodson and the passing game, this is still a team that is nothing special. The Wildcats had exciting rallies to beat Louisville and Arkansas, but in those games they were out-gained each time, with the defense allowing 467 yards to the Razorbacks and 495 to the Razorbacks. Even Kent State was able to pile up 463, with four turnovers keeping the Golden Flashes from getting more points on the board. This is an average team that has a couple of great skill players, and has gone +7 in turnover ratio so far. They are not good enough to beat this class of SEC opponent on the road.
Marc Lawrence
Game: Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Oct 4 2007 3:05PM
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Reason: Play On: Colorado w/Morales vs Kendrick
Note: Okay, we were wrong in assuming the white-hot Rockies would let down in the series opener yesterday. Today they send Franklin Morales to the hill knowing he is 4-1 away with a 2.05 ERA in his team starts. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's Kyle Kendrick is winless, 0-2, with a 7.00 ERA in his career team starts against Colorado. Look for the Rockies win train to stay on track here this afternoon
Game: Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Oct 4 2007 3:05PM
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Reason: Play On: Colorado w/Morales vs Kendrick
Note: Okay, we were wrong in assuming the white-hot Rockies would let down in the series opener yesterday. Today they send Franklin Morales to the hill knowing he is 4-1 away with a 2.05 ERA in his team starts. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's Kyle Kendrick is winless, 0-2, with a 7.00 ERA in his career team starts against Colorado. Look for the Rockies win train to stay on track here this afternoon
