MLB Betting Picks & Tips
New York (-125) at Cincinnati; Total: 9
Mets ace Jacob deGrom takes the hill for this getaway day tilt in the Queen City against Robert Stephenson and the Reds. You may be surprised about this line, but we have to consider all of the trades and injuries that have ravaged the Mets lineup. Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, and Curtis Granderson were all pieces of this team not that long ago and now they are gone from this group. As a result, the rating for the Mets has gone down dramatically.
That’s how you get such a huge pitching matchup advantage with such a relatively small line. Truthfully, when you consider the 15 to 25 cent advantage for home field advantage, this line does, in fact, look pretty reasonable. deGrom has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this season with his 3.39/3.49/3.26 slash line. Most importantly, he’s stayed pretty healthy. This will be his 27th start and he is on pace to set a career high in innings pitched. deGrom has missed more bats this season as well. deGrom struck out 10 and allowed just one earned run last time out to bounce back from a couple of subpar outings. From June 12 to August 10, deGrom allowed more than three runs in a start just once. He’s done it twice in his last three outings. It happens. It’s just variance. I don’t think it means much for a guy like him.
Injuries or not, the Mets should be able to hit Robert Stephenson. A lot of people have this season. Stephenson has a 5.81 ERA with a 5.86 FIP and a 5.16 xFIP on the season. This will be his third straight start and his sixth start in his last seven appearances. He struck out 11 and walked four in 5.2 innings against the Pirates last time out. He’s actually made two pretty good starts of late, but he’s a wild card. You never know what he’s going to do with subpar command and poor control. The swing and miss element is still there, so he also has the ability to go out and rack up some punchouts.
There probably aren’t any edges to be exploited in this game. The line is coming down a little bit, as people are looking to fade the Mets. You can’t blame them for that. But, it’s hard to back Stephenson as well. I also don’t know about the Mets’ motivation in this one, as bad teams tend to give weak efforts in getaway day games. Anybody but deGrom and I’d fade the Mets here, but since it’s him, I’ll pass.
Los Angeles (-105) at Arizona; Total: 8.5
Kenta Maeda and Zack Greinke are the listed starters as the Diamondbacks look for a sweep of the best team in baseball. They’ll have their ace in the mound in hopes of doing it and get back to facing a right-hander after scratching out a pretty good offensive showing against southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu. The Diamondbacks are in the bottom third of the league against lefties, but rank fourth in wOBA against righties. Of course, adjusted for park factor, their wRC+ is just 97, which ranks 18th. This team may be a little bit of smoke and mirrors, but they’re playing well right now and the Dodgers are not.
The waves of arms in the Dodgers rotation are just ridiculous. Maeda has made 21 starts and two relief appearances with a 3.76 ERA, a 3.84 FIP, and a 3.89 xFIP. Maeda has struck out over a batter per inning and has pretty solid peripherals overall. Maeda hasn’t been able to go more than six innings in any of his last four starts, so the Dodgers would like to see a little more length. He’s allowed 10 runs over those 22.1 innings with five home runs allowed, so he’s keeping his team in ballgames.
To me, this is one of those spots that means more to Arizona. To sweep the Dodgers sounds impressive. It’s a confidence booster. For the Dodgers, who are blowing everybody away, it’s not a big deal to run into a bit of a slump. They know how good of a team they are. Clayton Kershaw returns tomorrow. I think motivation is a bit of a factor. Teams that play at a high level for so long have a hard time sustaining it. The foot just naturally comes off the gas. My guess is that’s what we’re seeing from the Dodgers right now. It happened to the Astros, too, but they’ve been unable to find the gas pedal since.
Zack Greinke has been terrific for the Diamondbacks this season. He has a 3.14 ERA with a 3.17 FIP and a 3.20 xFIP. He’s struck out well over a batter per inning for the first time since 2014 and has his best strikeout rate since 2011. He has had a few rocky outings in August, though. In five starts this month, Greinke has a 4.50 ERA, but his peripherals are still strong with a 3.23 FIP and a 3.13 xFIP. He’s simply had batted ball luck and sequencing issues with a .372 BABIP against and a 66.1 percent LOB%. It’s a small sample size, but I’d look for a guy like Greinke to bounce back in short order. This is a lineup that requires a lot of focus and Greinke has had an extra day to prepare, just like he had last time out. That extra day of rest is important this time of year.
I like the Diamondbacks here. I like Greinke over Maeda and I think there are some situational elements in play for the Diamondbacks as well. The Dodgers get their ace back tomorrow and visit a bad San Diego team, so they can get back on track quickly and they know it.
Boston at New York (-120); Total: 9
I’m a bit surprised by this line, to be honest. The Yankees were just swept by the Indians, have some problems with Aroldis Chapman at the back end of the bullpen, and have a slumping Aaron Judge trying to figure it all out. Add in the fact that I’m high on Eduardo Rodriguez and I think we have a situation where this line could drop a little bit by game time. I’m a bit higher on CC Sabathia than the market and Sabathia has been a fade candidate for a while now, so for me to say that this line will go down should tell you something.
You certainly have to respect the Yankees bullpen, but the Yankees also need to play from in front to take advantage of that bullpen.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a 4.19 ERA with a 3.86 FIP and a 4.25 xFIP. I’m not sure if he’ll make the ALDS roster over Rick Porcello, but he’s a very intriguing guy to me. I like the strikeout rate and I like the plan to induce weak aerial contact. E-Rod actually has gotten a little bit unlucky that more of his fly balls haven’t turned into pop ups. Last season, Rodriguez had an 11.8 percent pop up rate. A similar rate this season would be really helpful for him with an increased strikeout rate, but only 5.6 percent of his fly balls have been the infield variety. Those are effectively strikeouts, so they are a big deal.
Rodriguez has struggled a bit over his last three outings with 12 runs allowed on 19 hits in 17.2 innings of work. He has 18 strikeouts against five walks, though, which I really like. He’s seen a bit of LOB% regression in those three starts, which was bound to happen. He’s also had some unfortunate batted ball luck in those games. He’s induced a lot of ground balls over his last two starts, which does make me wonder if his arm slot has dropped a little bit due to fatigue. It may simply be a mechanical thing, but I will be monitoring that as we move forward. I still like him in this matchup.
CC Sabathia has a 3.82 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP. It isn’t a sexy profile by any means, but Sabathia has been pretty effective in his 21 starts. He’ll be going on extra rest here because of yesterday’s doubleheader. The once hefty lefty had not allowed more than four runs in a start since May 9. He’s done that four times. Aside from that, he has allowed two runs or less. Dating back to May 16, Sabathia has a 2.83 ERA with a 3.95 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP, so he has been a savior for this Yankees rotation. I’d certainly be on the lookout for some regression, though, with a .254 BABIP against and an 82 percent LOB%.
I’ve got more trust in the Boston lineup to hit Sabathia than I have in the New York lineup to hit Rodriguez with the way things are going. I think you can start with a position on Boston, see how the game is going, and consider plus money either way to bet on the Yankees bullpen or just hold your Boston ticket. I think this is a decent spot for them, especially with a chance to widen their AL East lead.
Washington at Milwaukee (-110); Total: 8.5
I completely agree with the line move in this one, as the Brewers are taking on steam against the Nationals. It will be Zach Davies for the Brewers and Gio Gonzalez for the Nationals. At some point, this Gonzalez fade is going to work out. It has to. This is one of those seasons that has been really frustrating for somebody that uses sabermetrics to bet.
All of the sudden, Gonzalez’s ERA is down to 2.40 with a 3.86 FIP and a 4.28 xFIP. He has a .242 BABIP against, which is 50 points above his career average, and an 85.8 percent LOB%, which is among the best in the league. It’s nearly 12 percent above his career rate. Gonzalez has not had a BABIP against over .333 in a start since May 30. He’s had two starts with a LOB% below 70 percent this season. This shouldn’t be sustainable for anybody, let alone a guy that largely pitches to contact and has average control. Yet, here we are. I’ve faded Gonzalez every start since his near no-hitter and he has allowed one, zero, one, and two runs with LOB% of 87.5, 100, 83.3, and 90.9. I don’t know what more I can do. The numbers need to play out. Hopefully Milwaukee can be the team to deliver that blow. I stand by my handicapping methods and I believe in them. I will fade Gio Gonzalez today.
It doesn’t hurt that Zach Davies has found his command once again. Davies has a 3.91 ERA with a 4.25 FIP and a 4.52 xFIP. He’s pitched pretty well for a while now with a 1.67 ERA, a 2.76 FIP, and a 4.15 xFIP in his last eight starts. It’s a tough profile to evaluate because Davies doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but he stopped walking guys and has only allowed one home run in his last 54 innings. I understand the hesitation to back a guy like Davies, but I have to stay true to what has worked for me.
It’ll be the Brewers for me today.
St. Louis at San Francisco (-105); Total: 7.5
Michael Wacha and Madison Bumgarner meet in tonight’s nightcap. We’ve seen a significant move against the Giants already tonight. It seems that the level of suck that the Giants have shown this season outweighs the fact that Bumgarner is one of the league’s best pitchers. Bookmaker opened this one -140 and it dropped like a rock. Even when Pinnacle opened -128, it fell from the sky.
Wacha does show some modest signs of positive regression with a 4.33 ERA, a 3.76 FIP, and a 3.84 xFIP. He’s got a solid strikeout rate, the best of his career in fact, but has lost his command in recent starts. His BABIP is up near where it was last season and his home run rate has been growing for a while. Wacha has allowed 17 runs over his last four starts and has stopped striking out batters. He only has 24 over his last six starts in 28.1 innings. He was up around a strikeout per inning for a while. He’s given up five home runs and 38 total hits in those 28.1 innings of work. It’s a hard profile for me to back right now, even against a putrid offense like the Giants.
Madison Bumgarner has a 2.85 ERA with a 3.50 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP in his 85.1 innings of work. Bumgarner returned on July 15 and has pitched pretty well overall with a 2.78 ERA, a 3.93 FIP, and a 4.09 xFIP. The market may be looking to fade Bumgarner’s 88.8 percent LOB% and some of the home run issues that he has shown of late. I certainly can’t fault them for that. While I understand the move, I did give the Giants a thought at this price point, but they’re absolutely terrible offensively and defensively. There’s only so much that Bumgarner can do, so I’ll pass on the nightcap.