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Thursday 8/31/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8600 Class Rating: 102
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 17, 2017 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 31, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 THEY DON'T LIKE ME 1/1
# 1 VIDEO MOV 2/1
# 5 BOLD BANKER 3/1
THEY DON'T LIKE ME gets the edge as the wager in here. Santiago has an excellent return on investment over the past 30 days (+19) which ought to help bettors with this selection. Ought to go to the lead and could never look back. Put up a strong speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. VIDEO MOV - Seems to have a solid class edge based on the most recent company kept. He has been running solidly and the speed figs are among the top in this group. BOLD BANKER - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this colt. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this field of horses.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8600 Class Rating: 102
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 17, 2017 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 31, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 THEY DON'T LIKE ME 1/1
# 1 VIDEO MOV 2/1
# 5 BOLD BANKER 3/1
THEY DON'T LIKE ME gets the edge as the wager in here. Santiago has an excellent return on investment over the past 30 days (+19) which ought to help bettors with this selection. Ought to go to the lead and could never look back. Put up a strong speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. VIDEO MOV - Seems to have a solid class edge based on the most recent company kept. He has been running solidly and the speed figs are among the top in this group. BOLD BANKER - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this colt. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this field of horses.
The Walker Group at Charles Town
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Allowance - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $29000 Class Rating: 100
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 31 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 4 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 5 START LINE 5/2
# 8 HEAR THE CHATTER 10/1
# 2 HELP A BROTHER 3/1
START LINE is tough to overlook as the bet in here. Is tough not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been very good - 95 avg - of late. Put up a sound speed rating in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair. Is hard not to look at given the company run in lately. HEAR THE CHATTER - Have to consider solely on class, with some of the strongest class figures of this field. Has run strongly when travelling a dirt sprint race. HELP A BROTHER - Has to be given a shot based on the respectable speed figure posted in the last contest. Has quite good speed figs and has to be considered for a bet in this race.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 7 - Allowance - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $29000 Class Rating: 100
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 31 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 4 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 5 START LINE 5/2
# 8 HEAR THE CHATTER 10/1
# 2 HELP A BROTHER 3/1
START LINE is tough to overlook as the bet in here. Is tough not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been very good - 95 avg - of late. Put up a sound speed rating in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair. Is hard not to look at given the company run in lately. HEAR THE CHATTER - Have to consider solely on class, with some of the strongest class figures of this field. Has run strongly when travelling a dirt sprint race. HELP A BROTHER - Has to be given a shot based on the respectable speed figure posted in the last contest. Has quite good speed figs and has to be considered for a bet in this race.
Valuline at Evangeline Downs
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Evangeline Downs, Race 4 (Thursday August 31, 2017)
DYNASKRA
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
EVD-4 1mile DIRT Eight Horses
"A" CLM 4,000 3YUP $8,500
P# dd ex p3 t s ML WP TVL
6 DYNASKRA 9/5 45% 6/5 Strong Favorite icon
4 WAR THREAT 6/1 14% 6/1
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Evangeline Downs, Race 4 (Thursday August 31, 2017)
DYNASKRA
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
EVD-4 1mile DIRT Eight Horses
"A" CLM 4,000 3YUP $8,500
P# dd ex p3 t s ML WP TVL
6 DYNASKRA 9/5 45% 6/5 Strong Favorite icon
4 WAR THREAT 6/1 14% 6/1
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds
Fair Grounds - Race 9
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta Daily Double
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 57 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 4:06P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DYNASTYS FAST PRIZE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. TAYLOR MAID TO TOAST: Horse ranks in th e top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SENORITA PATRIOT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6
DYNASTYS FAST PRIZE
3/1
3/1
8
TAYLOR MAID TO TOAST
4/1
9/2
10
SENORITA PATRIOT
5/1
6/1
Fair Grounds - Race 9
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta Daily Double
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 57 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 4:06P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DYNASTYS FAST PRIZE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. TAYLOR MAID TO TOAST: Horse ranks in th e top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SENORITA PATRIOT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6
DYNASTYS FAST PRIZE
3/1
3/1
8
TAYLOR MAID TO TOAST
4/1
9/2
10
SENORITA PATRIOT
5/1
6/1
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:22pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,100 Class Rating: 66
Rating: 4
#4 MISSED HIM (ML=8/1)
#6 NICKY C (ML=6/1)
MISSED HIM - Whitney comes to get aboard after getting to know the gelding in the last affair. The jock/trainer duet of Whitney and Martin has a strong ROI together. He keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. NICKY C - This gelding usually does his best running late. Look for him last down the backstretch early in the race and closing strongly on the tiring speed horses.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SUNSHINE SPERRY (ML=3/1), #5 MIDNIGHT WITH LUTI (ML=7/2), #9 SHACKLETON (ML=4/1),
SUNSHINE SPERRY - Don't believe this racer is worth 3/1 in this race. MIDNIGHT WITH LUTI - The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underpriced contender. SHACKLETON - 4/1 odds isn't enough for this horse when looking at the most recent showings.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #4 MISSED HIM to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Bar
Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:22pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,100 Class Rating: 66
Rating: 4
#4 MISSED HIM (ML=8/1)
#6 NICKY C (ML=6/1)
MISSED HIM - Whitney comes to get aboard after getting to know the gelding in the last affair. The jock/trainer duet of Whitney and Martin has a strong ROI together. He keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. NICKY C - This gelding usually does his best running late. Look for him last down the backstretch early in the race and closing strongly on the tiring speed horses.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SUNSHINE SPERRY (ML=3/1), #5 MIDNIGHT WITH LUTI (ML=7/2), #9 SHACKLETON (ML=4/1),
SUNSHINE SPERRY - Don't believe this racer is worth 3/1 in this race. MIDNIGHT WITH LUTI - The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underpriced contender. SHACKLETON - 4/1 odds isn't enough for this horse when looking at the most recent showings.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #4 MISSED HIM to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Presque Isle Downs - Race #4 - Post: 6:40pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 79
Rating: 3
#3 SISTER STELLA (ML=3/1)
#1A OUR SWEET LEGACY (ML=5/2)
#1 JOJO'S GAL (ML=5/2)
SISTER STELLA - Was in a $7,500 Claiming race at Presque Isle Downs last out. That event had a class rating of 85 and she is moving down today. A certain win candidate. I really like sprinters that make a quick turnaround. A campaigner coming back this promptly after a strong effort is a good omen. Have to like the way Wismer has raced this mare back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. OUR SWEET LEGACY - Rojas brings this mare back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his mare is on top of her game. Was in a $7,500 Claiming race at Presque Isle Downs in the last race. That contest had a class figure of 85 and she is moving down right here. A certain strong challenger. Rojas will try adding blinks today in hopes of an improved performance. JOJO'S GAL - I think this mare is ready to run a good one. She's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SURFINA (ML=4/1), #6 WITHALITTLEHOPE (ML=6/1), #5 PINK FOR ME (ML=6/1),
SURFINA - Not probable that this horse will finish better than she did last time out of the box when finishing third. WITHALITTLEHOPE - This entrant gave a lackluster effort last time finishing fourth. No reason to expect improvement in today's race. The absence of early speed in the last one, a route race, is a bit disconcerting. When scrutinizing today's class rating, she will have to register a much better speed figure than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint. PINK FOR ME - Hard to support any horse with dropping speed ratings of 73/68/63. This vulnerable equine didn't go to the lead and didn't close in the stretch last time she ran. The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced contender.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 Entry is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Bar
Presque Isle Downs - Race #4 - Post: 6:40pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 79
Rating: 3
#3 SISTER STELLA (ML=3/1)
#1A OUR SWEET LEGACY (ML=5/2)
#1 JOJO'S GAL (ML=5/2)
SISTER STELLA - Was in a $7,500 Claiming race at Presque Isle Downs last out. That event had a class rating of 85 and she is moving down today. A certain win candidate. I really like sprinters that make a quick turnaround. A campaigner coming back this promptly after a strong effort is a good omen. Have to like the way Wismer has raced this mare back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. OUR SWEET LEGACY - Rojas brings this mare back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his mare is on top of her game. Was in a $7,500 Claiming race at Presque Isle Downs in the last race. That contest had a class figure of 85 and she is moving down right here. A certain strong challenger. Rojas will try adding blinks today in hopes of an improved performance. JOJO'S GAL - I think this mare is ready to run a good one. She's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SURFINA (ML=4/1), #6 WITHALITTLEHOPE (ML=6/1), #5 PINK FOR ME (ML=6/1),
SURFINA - Not probable that this horse will finish better than she did last time out of the box when finishing third. WITHALITTLEHOPE - This entrant gave a lackluster effort last time finishing fourth. No reason to expect improvement in today's race. The absence of early speed in the last one, a route race, is a bit disconcerting. When scrutinizing today's class rating, she will have to register a much better speed figure than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint. PINK FOR ME - Hard to support any horse with dropping speed ratings of 73/68/63. This vulnerable equine didn't go to the lead and didn't close in the stretch last time she ran. The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced contender.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 Entry is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
Remington Park - Race 9
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)
Claiming $10,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $15,950 • Post: 10:44
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 30, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT NECESSARY TO TAKE THIS RACE OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 5 FURLONG ON THE MAIN TRACK.).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * PREVIOUS HONOR: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equ ibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5
PREVIOUS HONOR
2/1
5/2
Remington Park - Race 9
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)
Claiming $10,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $15,950 • Post: 10:44
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 30, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT NECESSARY TO TAKE THIS RACE OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 5 FURLONG ON THE MAIN TRACK.).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * PREVIOUS HONOR: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equ ibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5
PREVIOUS HONOR
2/1
5/2
Rick Needham at Saratoga
RACE #9 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 5:18 PM EASTERN POST
The P. G. Johnson Stakes
8½ FURLONGS INNER TURF TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#1 MENTALITY
#3 ORBOLUTION
#5 RMANTIC BABE
#4 LIFE TIME CITIZEN
Well folks ... this turf race for juvenile fillies was first run in 2005 and was named after Hall of Fame trainer Philip George Johnson, who had died the previous year. Johnson, a native of Chicago, bought his first horse in 1942 for $75 and won his first race with him two years later, the first victory in a career than spanned six decades. He was the leading trainer at Saratoga in 1983 and according to the National Museum of Racing, won at least one race each year at the Spa from 1962 to 2003. His biggest career victory came in 2002 with a horse he co-owned named Volponi, who pulled off a 43-1 upset of the Breeders' Cup Classic. Here in the 13th renewal of this stakes test, #1 MENTALITY comes off a maiden-breaking, "POWER RUN WIN" in his "first asking," 75 days ago at Belmont Park. Jockey Ricardo Santana was in his irons for that win, which produced a +680% return on investment in the process, and is back this afternoon here at "The Spa" for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." #3 ORBOLUTION", the morning line favorite, is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in each of her 3 career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her last start.
RACE #9 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 5:18 PM EASTERN POST
The P. G. Johnson Stakes
8½ FURLONGS INNER TURF TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#1 MENTALITY
#3 ORBOLUTION
#5 RMANTIC BABE
#4 LIFE TIME CITIZEN
Well folks ... this turf race for juvenile fillies was first run in 2005 and was named after Hall of Fame trainer Philip George Johnson, who had died the previous year. Johnson, a native of Chicago, bought his first horse in 1942 for $75 and won his first race with him two years later, the first victory in a career than spanned six decades. He was the leading trainer at Saratoga in 1983 and according to the National Museum of Racing, won at least one race each year at the Spa from 1962 to 2003. His biggest career victory came in 2002 with a horse he co-owned named Volponi, who pulled off a 43-1 upset of the Breeders' Cup Classic. Here in the 13th renewal of this stakes test, #1 MENTALITY comes off a maiden-breaking, "POWER RUN WIN" in his "first asking," 75 days ago at Belmont Park. Jockey Ricardo Santana was in his irons for that win, which produced a +680% return on investment in the process, and is back this afternoon here at "The Spa" for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." #3 ORBOLUTION", the morning line favorite, is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in each of her 3 career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her last start.
