Thursday 2/16/12 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
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Just a quick note of thanks totonyhouston and betowin33
PM me if I can be of any help to both of you
Thank You and keep on posting the winners
JR donnel and B leonard
 
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Marc Lawrence Comp

Iowa at Penn State
Prediction: Iowa

When the Hawkeyes travel to no-so Happy Valley tonight Iowa will take the floor knowing they are 11-4 SU and ATS the last 15 games in this series. Meanwhile the Lions check in off a 16-point revenge win over Nebraska knowing they are 1-6-1 ATS in games off a victory this season. With PSU looking dead ahead to another revenge affair up next against Wisconsin and just 5-14 SU in games against winning teams this season, look for Iowa to improve to 8-0 SU against sub .500 opposition this season here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Iowa.
 
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Matt Fargo Comp

Wisconsin vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -6

Michigan St. is coming off a huge upset at Ohio St. and while some may expect a letdown, there is little chance of that happening. The Spartans are now 9-3 in the Big Ten and sit just a half-game behind the Buckeyes for first place. They meet once again in the season finale which could decide the championship but in order for that to happen, Michigan St. needs to take care of business leading up to that. Their last two losses, both on the road, came by just one point so the record could be even better. Wisconsin in back on track following a three-game losing streak in December and January. The Badgers have won seven of their last eight games with the lone loss in that period coming against Ohio St. they have won four straight games on the road but all four came against teams that won't be making the NCAA Tournament or are right on the bubble, as is the case with Purdue and Illinois. Wisconsin has eight conference wins but only one against a legitimate tournament team, Indiana. Michigan St. is a perfect 15-0 at home this season which includes double-digit wins over the top two teams in the conference that came to East Lansing, Indiana and Michigan. Under head coach Tom Izzo, the Spartans are an incredible 235-29 at the Breslin Center. Wisconsin comes in looking for some revenge but this series won't allow it as the home team has won 12 of the last 13 games played, with the lone exception being the Spartans overtime win at Wisconsin in January. The Spartans are doing with their usual style of defense and rebounding and those two categories have seen the best numbers in years. Michigan St. currently ranks fifth in the nation in field goal percentage defense and third in rebounding margin and it is the only team in the nation to rank in the top five in both categories. Michigan St. is 6-0 ATS this season in home conference games and 113 ATS in its 14 games this season after a game where it allowed 60 points or fewer.
 
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David Chan Comp

Sabres @ Flyers
PICK: Under 5.5

The 24-26-6 Buffalo Sabres barge into Philadelphia to take on the 31-18-7 Flyers.

Ryan Miller gets the start in net for the visitors; he'll be opposed by Ilya Bryzgalov.

The Flyers are desperate for a victory, stuck in a 1-4-1 stretch after losing 4-3 at Detroit on Sunday:

“We have to win the next game,” coach Peter Laviolette said. “What the Rangers do or what somebody behind us does that’s out of our control. We need to focus on our next game and get on a little bit of a roll here down the stretch.”

Byrzgalov has gone 1-1-3 in his last six games with a 1.92 GAA.

Miller and the Sabres are mired in the basement, and offense has been the main issue.

Buffalo has scored three or more goals in regulation this year just five times in 20-games.

Expect a hard-hitting affair between these two "hungry" teams, and for this total to sneak below the posted number!
 
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Scott Rickenbach Comp

Oregon @ California
PICK: Oregon +11

The Pac-12 is one of the toughest conferences in college hoops to figure out. While the level of play may not be up to the standards of past years, the amount of betting value has never been better. Take the Oregon Ducks road trip to Cal Thursday, for example. Oddsmakers are offering a very deep and experienced Ducks squad at a discount price. Oregon is just one game out of first in the Pac-12 and will be out for revenge against the Golden Bears, who defeated the Ducks 77-60 in Eugene back in January. Allen Crabbe had a field day against the Ducks in their last meeting and will be the focus of the defense Thursday night. Oregon turned up the defensive intensity in their last two wins – over Washington State and Washington – giving up just 57 and 69 points, respectively. They held to conference-leading Huskies to only 24-of-66 shooting, including just 2 for 16 from beyond the arc. Oregon has complemented that tough defensive play with some solid offensive numbers, scoring just under 80 points in their last three wins. Oregon has been one of the best bets in the country in recent weeks, going 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine outings, including four straight paydays coming into Thursday.
 
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Jack Jones Comp

Wisconsin +6½

This line is a big overreaction from the huge win that Michigan State picked up at Ohio State over the weekend. That victory sets the Spartans up for a big letdown spot tonight as they return home to face the underrated Wisconsin Badgers.

Despite not getting much national attention, the Badgers have quietly gone about their business in impressive fashion. Wisconsin is 19-6 on the season, which includes a 7-1 stretch of their last eight games. Their lone loss was a 6-point setback to those same Buckeyes.

The Badgers have arguably been playing their best basketball on the road this season. Wisconsin is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS away from home, outscoring opponents by 7.1 points/game. Their defense has been incredible all year, limiting foes to 50.3 points on 36.8 percent shooting.

After losing in overtime to the Spartans at home in their first meeting, the Badgers will certainly be seeking revenge. Bo Ryan is 46-27 ATS revenge a loss as the coach of Wisconsin, including 12-3 ATS when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less. The Spartans are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Bet Wisconsin Thursday.
 
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Jim Feist Comp

Gonzaga vs Santa Clara
Pick: Santa Clara

Gonzaga just finished up an impressive two-game home stand, but the Bulldogs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. That happens often with good teams or public teams and the Zags have been a power for years. They are just 2-7 ATS the last nine games overall. Santa Clara is 6-6 at home and has covered two of the last three games despite being on a 3-game road trip. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these teams and the Zags are 0-4 ATS the last 4 meetings in Santa Clara. Play Santa Clara.
 
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Dave Cokin Comp

Arizona State vs Washington
Pick: Washington

Washington hasn't exactly been sensational this season, but aside from an outrageously bad game at Oregon last week, the Huskies have been pretty good of late. Arizona State is terrible and they also don't seem to have any intensity, a deadly combo. I'll look for the wipeout and will spot the points with Washington.
 
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JEFF BENTON COMP

Your Thursday freebie is the Florida State Seminoles as the home favorite over the disappointing Virginia Tech Hokies.

V-Tech is just 14-11 for the season, and unless they capture the ACC tournament (unlikely!), they will be relegated to a lesser tournament this March. The Hokies are currently on a 1-10 spread slide their last eleven contests, and Seth Greenberg's team is only 3-6-1 against the spread away from Blacksburg this year.

Florida State has dropped their last three point-spread decisions, but they have been able to win straight up in eight of their last nine games, and they are a strong 13-1 straight up at home this year, covering eight of their twelve lined home dates.

The Seminoles have won four of the last six series meetings both straight up and against the spread, and that does indeed include a 63-59 win as the road underdog in January at Virginia Tech.

With Virginia Tech not showing much signs of life, have to go against the Hokies as Florida State salts this one away against the spread in the closing minutes of play.

Take the Seminoles here.
2♦ FLORIDA STATE
 
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MATT RIVERS COMP

Late night Bonus Play winner tonight from the Pacific 12, as I roll with the host Golden Bears to continue their dominance of the Ducks from Oregon.

Earlier this year Cal toyed with Oregon in a 77-60 road win in Eugene. That win pushed the Golden Bears series winning streak to eight in a row straight up, with the Bears covering in six of their last seven series wins over the Ducks.

California is 15-1 at the Haas Pavilion, with a 10-4 home spread mark in their lined home dates this year.

Dana Altman's team has picked up the pace late in the season, winning seven of their last nine on the conference trail, but the guard matchups in this game just do not play in Oregon's favor, as the Ducks have no one that can slow Guttierez and Crabbe.

Sure the points look enticing, but I can easily see this one slipping away from the visitors the longer this game progresses.

Lay it with Cal as the series winning streak balloons to nine in a row.
4? CALIFORNIA
 
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Free Selection from Sports Machine
Oregon / Cal Over 140

Platinum Plays
Free Pick: Duke Blue Devils -10 Over NC State

Free Selection from Nevada Sharpshooter
San Diego -6 over Portland

Golden Dragon Sports
Bonus Play: Florida State -9'

Hawkeye Sports
Your free selection for Thursday: San Francisco +5½ over BYU

Huddle Up Sports
Free Winner: Virginia Tech +9'

Teyas Sports
Free Pick 2/16/2012 ARIZONA ST UNDER 132

High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Thursday: Stanford Cardinal - 5
 
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Courtesy of Brisnet

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (1st) Lady of the Forest, 3-1
(5th) Magical Myth, 4-1

Charles Town (4th) One Hundred Laughs, 8-1
(7th) Ain't Jokin Around, 3-1

Delta Downs (1st) Kelamon, 8-1
(8th) Secret Heiress, 3-1

Fair Grounds (2nd) Jack's Spirit, 3-1
(4th) Flame Run, 3-1

Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Luke's Legacy, 7-2
(8th) Flight of a Dream, 6-1

Gulfstream Park (6th) Fantasy Unbridled, 4-1
(9th) Lily Lynn, 6-1

Laurel Park (4th) Majestic Samurai, 3-1
(7th) Madame Galaxy, 6-1

Oaklawn Park (5th) Tensaw, 4-1
(6th) Hot Speed, 3-1

Penn National (6th) Euro Ghost, 10-1
(9th) Wild and True, 3-1

Santa Anita (3rd) Jaws N' Paws, 7-2
(6th) Called to Serve, 6-1

Tampa Bay Downs (6th) Calesita Bay, 7-2
(8th) Ashtyn Too, 10-1

HIGHLIGHTS

For Thursday

AQUEDUCT (12:20): $54,000 ocl, 4&up, f&m, 6f (8TH).
CHARLES TOWN (7:15): $30,000 ocl, 4&up, 6 1/2f (8TH).
DELTA DOWNS (6:45): $40,000 alw, 4&up, f&m, 1m (4TH).
FAIR GROUNDS (1:40): $51,000 ocl, 4&up, 1m 70yds (8TH).
GULFSTREAM PARK (12:35): $53,500 ocl, 3yo, f, 5fT (3RD).
LAUREL PARK (12:35): $35,000 alw, 4&up, f&m, 6f (8TH).
OAKLAWN PARK (2:30): $42,500 ocl, 4&up, f&m, 6f (8TH).
SANTA ANITA (4:00): $58,000 alw, 3yo, f, 6 1/2f (7TH).
TAMPA BAY DOWNS (12:25): $21,400 ocl, 4&up, 1m 40yds (3RD); $21,400 ocl, 4&up, f&m, 7f (7TH).
 
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Courtesy of Michael Dempsey

AQU Race 1 Clm $25,000 (12:20 ET)

ML
FAIR

#5 Pretty Cozzy
2/1 9/5
#6 Major Molly
8/1 5/1
#4 Santorini Moon
5/2 3/1
#7 Lady of the Forest
3/1 7/2

Analysis: #5 Pretty Cozzy stalked the early pace and finished strongly to beat $16K claimers last out, her third win on the inner track in eight trips. She was claimed out of her last start by the Galluscio barn that is 22% winners first off the claim. The mare shares top last out speed fig honors and she looks capable of stepping up for a $25K tag and winning right back. She has run well on wet tracks and we might see some rain today.

#6 Major Molly returns off a 3 1/2 month break for the Englehart barn that is 27% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The filly reeled off three straight at Finger Lakes last year but came up short in her last two starts. Last out against $4K starter allowance foes she set thee early fractions and weakened to finish fourth behind repeat winner Awedacious Caren, who has won twice since then including a win on the inner here on Feb. 5 versus $7.5K claimers.

Race Rating: $$$

Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 9/5 or better.

EX: 5,6 / 4,5,6,7

TRI: 5,6 / 4,5,6,7 / 1,4,5,6,7
 
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Courtesy of The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:31pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: 4

#5 DANCE NEXT TO ME (ML=6/1)
#1 TUSCANY'S EXPRESS (ML=9/2)


DANCE NEXT TO ME - It looks like Pimentel had to know this colt on January 4th when riding him for the first time. Back on board again today. Trombetta drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to figure that this animal has a good chance at this level.

TUSCANY'S EXPRESS - On board this animal on January 19th and Monterrey is right back in the irons in today's contest. Trainer Barr moves this thoroughbred down in the class scale to face a weaker level today. Look for a solid race given this drop.

Vulnerable Contenders:
#7 REGAL RETURN (ML=3/1),
#2 NAVY SEAL (ML=7/2),
#4 COLOR CAM (ML=4/1),

REGAL RETURN - You should normally wager against probable favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last three weeks.

NAVY SEAL - All sorts of crazy zip signed up for this event. No chance for this speedy one.

COLOR CAM - This colt registered a speed fig in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's event.
 
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Race for Dubai Racing

Dubai Racing - Race 2 WIN / PLACE EXACTA / TRIFECTA ($.50 MIN) / SUPERFECTA ($.10 MIN) PICK 3 (RACES 2, 3, 4)

Stakes • 1 3/16 Miles • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 104 • Purse: $110,000 • Post: 10:05
JAGUAR XF TROPHY S. - FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BRED, FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARDS AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BRED, THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARDS. FOR HORSES RATED 95-105.
Contenders Race Analysis
P# Horse Morn
Line Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. JARDIM (BRZ) is the Dominant Front-runner of the race.
* KEY ANGLES * JARDIM (BRZ): Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.

4 JARDIM (BRZ) 10/1 5/2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
Line Running Style Good
Class Good
Speed Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
Figure

4 JARDIM (BRZ) 14 10/1 Front-runner 105 106 93.8 96.6 92.1
16 MANTOBA (GB) 16 20/1 Alternator/Stalker 97 104 81.5 87.2 62.7

Unknown Running Style:
PRINCE D'ALIENOR (IRE) (20/1) [Jockey: Benoist Gregory - Trainer: Nakkachdji Xavier], ATLANTIC BRAVE (GB) (10/1) [Jockey: Smith Wayne - Trainer: Al Muhairi Musabah],
ROYAL DESTINATION (IRE) (20/1) [Jockey: Peslier Olivier - Tra
 
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Courtesy of The Walker Group at Oaklawn

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 84

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 16, 2011. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 16, 2011 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 16, 2011 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

# 8 PROUD PLAYER 2/1

# 5 THIS TIME 5/2

# 2 HONEYMOON HOTEL 15/1


I back PROUD PLAYER here. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of very strong win percentage - 22 percent - at this distance & surface. With a strong 73 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. Has to be carefully examined versus this group of horses in this race displaying very good figures recently and an average speed fig of 74 under similar conditions.

THIS TIME - This filly must be given consideration just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone. Is hard not to examine given the company run in recently.

HONEYMOON HOTEL - The average Equibase class figure alone makes this one a definite contender. Has been racing well and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance.
 
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Courtesy of The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate - Race #3 - Post: 1:46pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: 3

#2 MORELAND (ML=10/1)
#6 TOTALLY TRUE (ML=3/1)
#4 SWISS G'S (ML=8/1)


MORELAND - I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least 5 class pts like this one did last time out. I believe he'll be competitive at this level.

TOTALLY TRUE - Gelding is a few starts into a return here. Should give a top effort today. Cedillo and 'King Jerry' partnered up are a railbird's friend. Hollendorfer seems to have this gelding primed for a big effort. His workout pattern is wonderful.

SWISS G'S - Always beware the longer priced equine when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. That 87 fig this gelding recorded in his last event tells me he's a major player today.

Vulnerable Contenders:
#1 SACRED OATH (ML=8/5),
#3 NEW CENTURION (ML=5/2),
#5 OVER THE BUDGET (ML=8/1),

SACRED OATH - Awfully tough to invest in any mount that just won a Maiden Claimer, then steps up to face winners. The victory on January 12th probably isn't good enough to beat these today.

NEW CENTURION - A 'bounce' is likely to happen for this horse this time around. May rebound next time.

OVER THE BUDGET - The sixth place result in the last race was not the best. 8/1 is not offering enough value for any animal in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance race lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 MORELAND to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
 

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