NCAA Basketball Trends & Angles
February 15 TO 22, 2012
We have now reached BracketBuster weekend, so this week our NCAA Basketball Trends & Angles contain more non-conference angles than usual. The first two angles look specifically at non-conference games during the month of February since 2000, as the BracketBuster games account for a huge chunk of those games.
Notice that both of these angles have to do with teams coming off of double-digit wins, although the end results have been polar opposites depending on whether those winning teams are now home or on the road.
Play against any non-conference home team during the month of February after winning its last game by 10 points or more (82-53-2, 60.7% ATS since 2000): Remember that in virtually all of these cases, the preceding double-digit win came in a conference game, so the home teams are oftentimes disinterested when going out of conference, as these clubs really do not have much to prove and would rather save their best for their return to conference play. Conversely, the home teams almost always get the best shot from the road teams, who have more to gain in these games by winning on the road vs. tough non-conference opponents, which is something that the NCAA Selection Committee looks favorably upon. One definite qualifier this Saturday will be Drake over New Mexico State, as the latter won by 11 points last Saturday and has this whole week off. There will undoubtedly be more qualifiers though, so make sure to check how the home participants in the BracketBusters do this week.
Play on any non-conference road team during the month of February after winning its last game by 10 points or more (66-44-1, 60.0% ATS since 2000): It actually makes perfect sense that teams coming off of double-digit wins have performed well if going on the road out of conference for the very reason mentioned in the first angle, that being that unlike their home counterparts, the road teams have more to gain by winning in the eyes of the committee. Add in the big win its previous game and you now have a motivated road team that is also in good form. One definite qualifier will be Long Beach State when it visits Creighton on Saturday, but again, make sure to check on the results of the road participants in the BracketBusters this week for more potential qualifiers.
Play on the 'over' in non-conference games during the month of February if a team went 'over' by 10 or more points in its last game (81-56-2, 59.1% since 2000): Generally speaking, teams play more loosely in non-conference games, and if a team's game exceeded the posted total by at least 10 points in its previous game, it means that either the team's offense is in gear, the team's defense is lax or some combination of the two. With this now being a non-conference game, there is really no need to tighten things up on either side of the court, and as you can see, the end result has been a better than 59 percent success rate for the 'over' over nearly 140 games. Again, it is too early at the preset time to find the qualifying 'overs' for the BracketBuster games, so pay close attention to the games leading up to this weekend.
Play against any non-conference home underdog that was on the road in its last three games (93-65-2, 58.9% ATS since 2005): While teams in this situation may be undervalued vs. conference opponents, that is not the case for non-conference games as the teams returning home from a road trip feel the effects of all that travel more in games that are not that important in the whole scheme of things, which is what non-conference games are played at this time in the middle of conference schedules. This one looks to have some possibilities in the BracketBuster games this week, so be on the look-out for home underdogs to fade this weekend.
Play against any non-conference home underdog that was favored in its last two games (43-27, 61.4% ATS since 2010): This is a fresh angle that only goes back to the beginning of last season, but its important to note that this one is a raging 25-8, 75.8 percent YTD this season! This goes back to non-conference games not being as important as conference games, and if a team is a home underdog after being favored in recent games, it is facing a superior non-conference opponent. Since there are many occasions where this situation results in both teams playing lethargically, the team with the better raw talent has usually prevailed in recent years.
Play against any non-conference favorite coming off of two or more losses (81-56, 59.1% ATS this season only): This is a situation where a team may have more talent as it is favored, but is not in good current form. When this angle has turned up this season at least, the favorite has been unable for the most part to snap out of its doldrums in a relatively meaningless game, giving the non-conference underdog value in this instance.
Play the 'under' in division games if a team went 'over' in its last three games (99-66-1, 60.0% since 2008): And now back to our conference and/or division angles. Nothing brings familiarity with your opponents more than division games do, so those are the games with the greatest likelihood of seeing streaks like this stopped. In these specific games, teams know how to slow downs teams that they have seen often, even if the opponents have been running more unfamiliar teams off the floor. Some qualifying 'unders' in upcoming games include Georgia at South Carolina (Wednesday), Richmond at Saint Louis (Wednesday) and Dayton at Xavier (Saturday).
Play on any conference road underdog that has lost its last six games straight up (319-237-12, 57.4% ATS since 2005): Bettors almost never like to bet on bad teams on long losing streaks, and thus the oddsmakers could give these teams a few extra points virtually without fear as the general public would still avoid them, especially in the road underdog role. The sharps know better though and jump on these value plays, and while this 57.4 percent win rate is not as high as some of our other angles, the very large sampling since 2005 more than makes up for it as this has turned a large profit. This angle went 5-3, 62.5 percent ATS in the last seven days, and some teams on losing streaks of at least six games with road contests coming up include Air Force at Wyoming (Wednesday), Canisius at Niagara (Wednesday), Citadel at Western Carolina (Thursday), and UL Monroe at North Texas (Thursday). Remember to play on those road teams as underdogs.
Play on any road team that has lost its last 10 games straight up (108-62-5, 63.5% ATS since 2005): This is another contrarian losing streak angle that takes the previous one to new heights, and the sample size is starting to become more meaningful. Please note that this angle applies to all road trams and is not restricted to only conference games. There is one definite qualifier for this angle on Thursday in The Citadel.
