MORNING LINE REPORT – Thursday, November 30th
You ever have that feeling you just can’t lose? When everything seems lined up in your favor and everything you do just seems to go your way. Well, that’s about the kind of feeling we’ve been having around here lately as I think it’s safe to say we are officially on a heater. Another sweep last night with winners on Montreal, Boston and Colorado and the post-Thanksgiving run is now 17-3. Ridiculous.
November started off with a tough stretch for a couple of weeks but things have turned around in a big way. I mentioned a few days ago that our win rates this season were staying at a level rate with a 58.7% success rate in October and about a 56% win rate in November. Our November win rate is now up to 57.9% after this nice run which is still a very sustainable number. What isn’t sustainable, however, is the current 85% rate over this past week so we need to be careful moving forward. It’s just not possible to win every game on every night and you have to guard against letting things get out of control.
That’s where the emotion of this business comes into play. That feeling of invincibility can get you in a lot of trouble if you start increasing your bet sizes or let your daily routine get a little slack. Everything can turn on a dime when it comes to sports so enjoy the good times but try to maintain a level head and keep working hard. Success is earned, not given.
We have an interesting little seven game card tonight where all these opponents are playing each other for the first time this season. As has been the theme this week, I’ll get the chart posted up early to make sure you guys can get the best lines possible before the market takes off. That paid off yesterday as that Montreal line moved into the -140s late morning which made our -126 look very nice. I was hoping to get at least a few write-ups done early but that hasn’t worked out so check in a little later for some notes below.
LOS ANGELES KINGS @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Projected Goaltenders
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick/Darcy Kuemper (unknown)
Washington – Braden Holtby (expected)
Injury Report
Los Angeles – Carter (out), Clifford (out), Andreoff (out)
Washington – Burakovsky (out), Eller (probable), Smith-Pelly (probable), Djoos (likely)
The Los Angeles Kings kicked off their four game daunting road trip with a needed 4-1 win in Detroit. With stops in Washington, St. Louis and Chicago to come, Tuesday’s game was maybe the best chance for a Kings win and they capitalized with a big effort.
Stevens mixed up his defensive pairs against the Wings by reuniting Drew Doughty with Jake Muzzin on the top pair for the first time since 2014’s Cup run. Alec Martinez and Oscar Fantenberg formed the second pair and Fantenberg logged a season-high ice-time of almost 20 minutes. Fantenberg has been a pleasant surprise on the blueline this year contributing seven points in 19 games. Christian Folin and Derek Forbort rounded out an underrated third pairing. You won’t see Folin and Forbort’s name on the scoresheet very often but they have both been excellent stay at home defensemen this year with positive possession numbers and they haven’t been getting caught out of position.
Los Angeles starts a back-to-back tonight and I haven’t seen confirmation of who will start in net. You could almost always pencil in the starter in the first game and the backup for the second with the Kings but they threw a curveball on their last back-to-back and started Kuemper first, so we’ll have to see what Stevens decides.
The Washington Capitals have looked more like the President’s Trophy winners lately and that has coincided with the reuniting of Alex Ovechkin with Nicklas Backstrom on the top line. Ovechkin has five goals in the three goals since being back together and the Capitals are playing their best hockey of the season.
Saturday’s 4-2 win at Toronto was a flat out dominating effort through 40 minutes before the Leafs made things interesting late. Washington now returns home to kick off a five game homestand where they have won seven of their last eight games.
Rookie defenseman Christian Djoos is expected to be activated today and possibly be in the lineup tonight. Trotz hasn’t officially confirmed this yet but it looks like a safe bet. Taylor Chorney is expected to sit out and this is an excellent upgrade for the Caps.
Lars Eller and Devante Smith-Pelly both returned to practice yesterday and are expected to play. Eller was dealing with a visa immigration issue and Smith-Pelly was sick.
This line looked short to me before I even ran the numbers so I wasn’t surprised to see this come up as a play on Washington. It was closer than I expected though and only qualifies as a full play thanks to an overnight move which has seen the opener drop a few pennies. My line is with Quick in goal so it doesn’t matter who starts for them as this would still qualify as a play. If Kuemper goes it will be playable to a higher number which I’ll update on Twitter if need be. The Capitals are playing the best they have all season and asserting their home ice dominance again, so this is a play I really like tonight.
MONTREAL CANADIENS @ DETROIT RED WINGS
Projected Goaltenders
Montreal – Carey Price/Antti Niemi (unknown)
Detroit – Jimmy Howard (likely)
Injury Report
Montreal – Hemsky (out), Lehkonen (out), Weber (doubtful), Drouin (out)
Detroit – Frk (questionable), Daley (questionable)
The Montreal Canadiens have now won three in a row since the return of Carey Price and they can thank him for all three of those victories. Price has stopped 100 of 102 shots in three dominant performances and he looks to be back in top-form. Montreal now opens an important home-and-home with a quick trip to Detroit before returning home for another five games at the Bell Centre.
Tonight will be Montreal’s third game in four nights and fourth in six but Julien hasn’t ruled out the possibility of going right back to Price as his starter. Antti Niemi played well in his lone appearance with the Habs but Julien realizes how critical this current stretch is and may be willing to ride his horse. Price did have a lot of time off so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in net tonight and I’ve made my line with that expectation.
You may have heard Jonathan Drouin didn’t travel with the team to Detroit after last night’s game. No worries Habs fans as Drouin isn’t injured. He was just a dummy and forgot his passport so couldn’t cross the border. Drouin is expected to meet up with the team today and play tonight.
[UPDATE: Apparently this isn’t the case at all (thanks a lot Montreal beat writer). Drouin was just announced day-to-day with a lower-body injury and didn’t travel with the team and isn’t expected to play tonight after all]
Shea Weber did travel with the team and there’s a chance he could return to the lineup tonight but we’ll have to wait for an official update. I did include him as in when I made my line.
[UPDATE: Eric Engels, one of Montreal’s most reliable reporters, just said he thinks Weber has been placed on IR and therefore may not play tonight. It’s a bit of a confusing situation since if Weber was placed on IR last night, he could technically be activated for tonight but it would require someone else to be sent down. My new line is updated below now with Weber expected out of the lineup]
Montreal made a late transaction last night when they called up Daniel Carr from Laval. Carr currently leads the Rockets with 12 goals and is going to be a big boost to Montreal’s fourth line. The current line of Jacob De La Rose, Nicolas Deslauriers and Byron Froese is hot garbage and really weighing down the team since Ales Hemsky and Arturri Lehkonen were sidelined with injury. Carr is a gritty player with a scoring touch who should have been on the roster from opening day so it’s nice to see him finally get a chance. Carr’s linemate in Laval, Peter Holland, could be next as he’s also been playing great hockey and would be another nice boost at fourth line center for Montreal.
David Schlemko returned last night and looked very good. He instantly makes the Habs blueline better, even at the expense of promising rookie Victor Mete who was having a solid debut.
The Detroit Red Wings are one of several teams who came out of the gate hot but are quickly falling back to where they were expected to be. The Wings lost for the fifth straight time in a pretty lackluster 4-1 defeat to visiting Los Angeles and Henrik Zetterberg’s career-long scoring drought reached 18 games. Detroit has actually only lost twice in regulation over the last eight games so it’s not like they are playing terrible by any means but they are having trouble finishing games.
Trevor Daley is questionable for tonight. He practiced yesterday and says he feels good and ready to go but Blashill said they need to make sure he’s completely symptom-free. It sounds like he’ll likely play so my line includes him in the lineup. Martin Frk also practiced and is getting close. Blashill said his best guess would be a return this Saturday. Frans Nielsen was given a “maintenance day” but is expected to play tonight.
We’ll wait for a line to open here this morning but we’ll also need some confirmations on Price/Niemi and Weber before making a decision. I’m not overly interested in getting involved here so we’ll most likely sit this one out unless there’s a terrible opening number.
[UPDATE: With the recent Drouin news and Weber update, my new line for this game is now Detroit -111/-120 so we’ll see where this one opens. If Price starts I think the under is probably the best play here]
VANCOUVER CANUCKS @ NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Projected Goaltenders
Vancouver – Jacob Markstrom/Anders Nilsson (unknown)
Nashville – Pekka Rinne (expected)
Injury Report
Vancouver – Sutter (out), Dorsett (out), Gudbranson (out)
Nashville – Ellis (out), Hartnell (doubtful), Weber (doubtful)
The Vancouver Canucks will wrap up a six game road trip tonight and they probably can’t wait to get home after dropping their third straight in Brooklyn on Tuesday night by a 5-2 score. The Canucks were flat from the start and Travis Green said he thought his team was getting worn out on this trip and were tired. That was pretty evident by Brock Boeser’s yawn on the bench when the third period was beginning.
The Canucks are really missing Sutter and Dorsett as that top shutdown line. Other players are being forced out of position now and the smooth chemistry displayed by Vancouver’s other three lines just isn’t there right now.
There was some sad news shared by the Canucks Twitter account this morning with the announcement that Derek Dorsett would not be returning to hockey. The complications with his neck are just too severe and doctors have advised him not to return to the game. Dorsett was having a solid season and as important as anyone not named Bo Horvat or Brock Boeser in that forward group.
No confirmation on tonight’s starter but I went with Jacob Markstrom for my line. Nilsson is coming off a tough game so would expect the rotation to continue.
The Nashville Predators continued their home ice domination on Tuesday night with a 3-2 win over Chicago and are now 9-1-1 at Bridgestone Arena. The Hawks played a really strong game and this one was tight the whole way. Nashville owns the NHL’s best record in November at 10-2-1 and with a win tonight would tie a franchise record for most wins ever in the month.
Scott Hartnell and Yannick Weber are both practicing with the team again but I don’t believe either are ready to return yet. They’re getting close though and that’s why I listed as doubtful and not completely out, as I’m just not fully sure. No other expected changes for the Predators tonight other than their backup goaltender. Juuse Saros was sent down this morning in favor of AHL wins leader, Anders Lindback. Pekka Rinne is expected to get the start. Rinne has been sensational of late winning his last five starts with a 1.77 goals-against average and .946 save percentage.
This line opened exactly where it should but a small move towards Vancouver this morning has it just a couple of cents below my cut-off. There isn’t the regular amount of value here tonight but based on the situation this is a huge buy spot for Nashville. The Canucks were exhausted last game and traveling from Brooklyn to Nashville with just one day off isn’t likely to help matters. I’m still debating exactly how to play this as I think this one might be okay to play in regulation, but let me mull it over a bit more and I’ll post the play on Twitter shortly.
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS @ MINNESOTA WILD
Projected Goaltenders
Vegas – Malcolm Subban/Maxime Lagace (unknown)
Minnesota – Devan Dubnyk (expected)
Injury Report
Vegas – Perron (out), Carrier (out), Sbisa (probable)
Minnesota – Parise (out), Spurgeon (out)
The Vegas Golden Knights five game win streak ended on Tuesday night with another franchise first. The Knights were shutout for the first time in their short history, blanked 3-0 by Dallas. A tough travel schedule continues for Vegas here as they have alternated single home and road games for the last two weeks.
David Perron did not make the trip with the team and will miss his third straight game. Defenseman Luca Sbisa did travel with the club and is questionable.
The Knights open a tough back-to-back tonight with a trip further north to Winnipeg tomorrow. Subban and Lagace will likely split the duties and I would expect Subban tonight but there’s been no confirmation.
The Minnesota Wild are coming off a pair of ugly road losses at the hands of the Blues and Jets. After jumping out to an early 2-0 lead on Monday night, Winnipeg turned on the jets and pumped seven goals past backup Alex Stalock who took the full brunt for 60 minutes.
That wrapped up a long stretch of eight games in 14 days. The Wild had their first back-to-back days off since November 12-13[SUP]th[/SUP] and were finally able to practice on some things. When teams only have one day off between games, they don’t get the chance to hold full practices so if there’s things they need to work on it’s basically on-the-fly in-game. And the Wild had a lot of things to work on which is why they held a lengthy practice yesterday.
General Manager Cliff Fletcher called out his team yesterday, particularly the forwards, calling the Wild’s season “incredibly disappointing” and hoping Monday’s defeat would be “an eye-opener”. When your GM finally gets fed up to the point of making a public statement on how embarrassing your play is, you better take notice. With two days off and a full practice under their belts, I’m expecting a max effort from the Wild tonight.
I was hoping to find a lower opener here so we could jump on Minnesota but oddsmakers opened this one exactly where I had it. I think this is going to be a pretty tough game for Vegas to win but I’m not crazy about buying this big of a number on an inconsistent Wild team. They would probably make a good parlay with Nashville so now I just have to convince myself to pull the trigger. Stay tuned for a Twitter update to see if I can muster the courage to play this.
DALLAS STARS @ CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Projected Goaltenders
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Chicago – Corey Crawford (confirmed)
Injury Report
Dallas – Methot (out), Hanzal (out)
Chicago – Hossa (out)
I was looking forward to just watching this one as it should be a really good game. The opener at -135 was too high though and then it rose overnight to -146. That line implies the Hawks would be a fair bit better than the Stars if these teams played on neutral ice and that just shouldn’t be the case. The Hawks are on a better run recently but so are the Stars and there’s no way I could pass up the price for what should be a coin flip game. We’ll see what side the coin lands on tonight but either way I like the Stars chances and we got a great price this morning to boot.
ARIZONA COYOTES @ CALGARY FLAMES
Projected Goaltenders
Arizona – Scott Wedgewood (confirmed)
Calgary – Mike Smith (confirmed)
Injury Report
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Hjalmarsson (out)
Calgary – Versteeg (out), Jagr (probable), Bennett (in)
Arizona is coming off a 3-2 overtime loss at Edmonton and have dropped three of four overall. Times are tough again for the Coyotes without their starting goaltender, Antti Raanta. Scott Wedgewood will start again tonight as Raanta is likely out through the weekend. Tocchet said they’ll get another update on him Friday.
Tocchet said the team really struggles when they can’t get the extra practice time. The Coyotes have had a tighter schedule than most to the point having already gone through a stretch of 11 games in 19 days and another of seven in 12. Arizona will finally get a three day break after their December 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] game so their next game after that in Boston on December 7[SUP]th[/SUP] might be one to circle as a good spot.
Niklas Hjalmarsson is out again and has been ruled out for Saturday’s game, as well. Hjalmarsson missed ten games earlier this year and was sorely missed on the blueline and Arizona will have to try and plug the hole again. Fortunately, Jacob Chychrun is about ready to make his season debut. He was sent to Tucson for a conditioning stint earlier this week and Tocchet said he’s just days away from returning to the big club, possibly as early as this weekend.
The Calgary Flames continue a four game homestand tonight after dropping the opener on Tuesday, 4-1 to Toronto.
It was announced today that Kris Versteeg might be lost for the year which would be a tough loss for Calgary. He’s been a key member of the top powerplay unit and a veteran leader in the locker room. With the extra roster spot the Flames called up Garnet Hathaway, the AHL’s second leading goal scorer. He’s a physical player who should help the struggling fourth line.
Jaromir Jagr missed last game but skated with the team in regular rushes today and is expected back in the lineup. Sam Bennett has a few new stitches on his face after a nasty cut but is good to go for tonight.
The Coyotes really struggled when Raanta and Hjalmarsson were both out earlier this year and after getting them back and playing well for a short stretch, they have to adapt again. This is a pretty good spot for Calgary but the line was priced in the range it should be. Actually, as I finished that sentence I notice it just dropped to -177 which is now slightly too low. We’ll keep an eye on it and if it drops further we may add as a play.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS @ EDMONTON OILERS
Projected Goaltenders
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (likely)
Edmonton – Laurent Brossoit (confirmed)
Injury Report
Toronto – no significant injuries
Edmonton – Sekera (out), Khaira (out)
If you have any specific questions about this game feel free to hit me up on Twitter. The biggest news here is that Cam Talbot will be out at least two weeks so Laurent Brossoit will get the start tonight. Big, big test for the Oilers now who were maybe starting to play a bit better.