Thursday 10/26/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

[Pesos]

Inside the Paint - Thursday

Since Monday, favorites have gone 14-10 straight up while underdogs have posted a 12-11-1 record against the spread. Bettors riding the home ‘dogs on Wednesday wound up going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS with big victories posted by the Nets (+8, +270 ML) over the Cavaliers and the Suns (+7.5, +260 ML) over the Jazz. Dallas wound up earning its first win by beating Memphis 103-94 at home and the L.A. Lakers handed the Washington their first loss of the season with a 102-99 overtime victory at the Staples Center.

Even though scoring is up through the first week of the season, the oddsmakers have already adjusted to the totals market correctly with some inflated numbers. The days of totals closing below 200 are going to be very rare this season. Through three days of action this week, the ‘under’ is 17-7 (71%) and that includes an 8-2 mark to the low side last night.

Welcome Mat?

DeMarcus Cousins will face his former team on Thursday as New Orleans (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) and Sacramento (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) meet from the Golden 1 Center.

The big man still isn’t happy with the Kings organization after he was dealt to New Orleans last February. In a recent in interview, Cousins shared his thoughts.

"My representatives, they told me I shouldn't stay," Cousins said of refusing "an opportunity to leave" when the team hired George Karl in 2015 to coach the team. "But, you know, I guess being stubborn or loyal, I wanted to make things work. How you going to be loyal to something that ain't loyal to any player that's ever played the game? I was a fool."

Sacramento opened as a short favorite (-2) and it would probably be an underdog if New Orleans All-Star Anthony Davis (knee) was healthy. He’s listed as ‘doubtful’ as of Thursday morning after knocking his knees in Tuesday’s 103-93 loss at Portland.

Even though the pair share the same record, New Orleans has played three playoff contenders while Sacramento’s last three opponents have at least three-plus losses.

The Kings were competitive in their home opener last Wednesday, but still came up short in a 105-100 loss to the Rockets.

The home team won and covered all three meetings last season and Cousins was on the winning team in each game, winning twice with Sacramento before getting revenge against the Kings in the “Big Easy” after the trade. In that win, Cousins torched his former team for a game-high 37 points and 13 rebounds as New Orleans cruised to a 117-89 blowout. The ‘under’ connected in all three games last season.

Tip-off is set for 10:35 p.m. ET and TNT will provide national coverage.

Looking for Respect

Milwaukee (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) will host Boston (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at the Bradley Center tonight and TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 8:05 p.m. ET.

This will be a quick rematch as the Bucks dropped the Celtics 108-100 last Tuesday as 1½-point road underdogs. Boston actually led this game going into the fourth quarter by four points but Milwaukee closed the game 32-20 as the Celtics ran out of gas after dealing with Cavaliers one night earlier and of course the emotional loss of Gordon Hayward to injury.

Even though a lot of pundits may believe Milwaukee is better than Boston, the oddsmakers still have the Celtics (4/1) as the second choice to win the East behind Cleveland while the Bucks are sitting at 16/1.

For this matchup, Milwaukee opened as a 3½-point favorite and that number quickly moved to four.

After starting 0-2, Boston has won back-to-back games albeit against the 76ers and Knicks. Milwaukee sits above that pair and another win in this spot would boost its resume even more.

Prior to the outcome last week, Boston was on a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS run against Milwaukee.

The total was bet down early from 207 to 205½. Boston has leaned ‘under’ (3-1) while the Bucks have been on the other side of the fence with a 3-1 ‘over’ mark.

Home-and-Home

The Mavericks and Grizzlies will play for the second straight night after meeting in the Lone Star State on Wednesday. As mentioned above, Dallas captured its first win of the season (103-94) and that was also the first setback this season for Memphis. Including that win, that Mavericks are now 6-2 both SU and ATS in their last eight games versus the Grizzlies.

Dallas has only played one road game this season and it was run 107-91 at Houston. Memphis has gone 2-0 both SU and ATS at home this season, with both wins coming by double digits.

The Grizzlies have seen all four of their games go ‘under’ this season and tonight’s total (196½) is expecting another low-scoring affair.

Western Test

Bettors could be scratching their heads on this game as the Clippers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) and Trail Blazers (3-1 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) square off from the Moda Center. I thought this line would be closer to pick ‘em or even have Los Angeles listed as a road favorite but will find out soon enough if my rating is better than oddsmakers.

The Clippers haven’t played any serious contenders thus far, but they have won and covered all of their games easily. What’s impressive is the defense, which is leading the league in scoring at 88 points per game and that’s helped the ‘under’ post a 3-0 mark.

Portland’s offense (112.8 PPG) will be a much stiffer test for Los Angeles but you could question those early numbers too considering the Trail Blazers started the season against the defenseless Suns and Pacers. Make a note that Portland is 3-1 to the ‘under’ so far.

The Clippers got the best of the Trail Blazers last season, winning all three of their encounters and they covered two of the victories. They only visited the Moda Center once and they captured a 114-106 victory.

If Necessary

With the NBA being so top-heavy, you’re going to have matchups on a nightly basis that are often unwatchable and sometimes not even worth wagering on. This matchup between Atlanta (1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) and Chicago (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) certainly meets that criteria. The Bulls opened as 2½-point home favorites after being listed as double-digit underdogs in their first three games.

Atlanta has been an underdog in every game so far, which isn’t surprising since the NBA somehow let the schedule makers have the club start the season with five straight on the road. Also, the Hawks will likely be without point guard Dennis Shroder (ankle) for the fourth consecutive game on Tuesday. In the lone game Atlanta won at Dallas (117-111) last Wednesday, the super-fast point guard finished with a game-high 28 points and added seven assists.

Chicago had its home opener last Saturday and it dropped an 87-77 decision to San Antonio at home. The Bulls rebounded offensively in Tuesday’s loss at Cleveland (119-112) by hitting 17-of-33 (52%) bombs from 3-point land. If Fred Hoiberg’s team continues that trend, the Bulls won’t be winless for long.

For what it’s worth, Atlanta has won and covered eight of the last 10 meetings between the pair.

 

[Pesos]

NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Thursday's Picks and Analysis


Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season: 8-10

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks (-4, 206.5)

The Celtics’ season draws parallel with a certain nursey rhyme about a great big fall. Boston is putting the pieces back to together by giving the minutes that would have gone to Gordon Hayward to rookie Jayson Tatum and second year wing Jaylen Brown. And these kids are alright.

Tatum is averaging 14.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per game on 47.6 percent shooting from the field while Brown is pouring in 18.8 points and 1.3 steals every night while shooting over 36 percent from beyond the arc.

The offense still isn’t as smooth as it could be because new point guard Kyrie Irving hasn’t hit his stride yet with his new teammates. The Celtics’ net rating (measuring a team’s point differential per 100 possessions) is 9.1 with Irving on the pine and 2.4 with him on the floor.

Irving has an ego and he’ll be looking to go shot for shot with MVP frontrunner Giannis Antetokounmpo. That won’t help Boston’s chances of winning this game.

Pick: Bucks -4

Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers (-3, 211)

Chris who? Blake Griffin is proving the Clippers aren’t missing their former All-Star point guard by averaging nearly 27 points and 10 rebounds through the first three games of the campaign. He also crowned elite shot blocker Rudy Gobert on Tuesday night, proving there's still some spring in his step.


The Clippers are 3-0 straight up and against the spread and own the league’s best net rating at 24.2. LA is 3-1 straight up and against the spread in its last four games against the Blazers.

Pick: Clippers +3

Total Streaks

*The under is 19-7 in Chicago’s last 26 home games.
*The over is 12-4-2 in the last 18 games between the Mavericks and Grizzlies.
*The under is 5-1 in the Clippers’ last six games overall.

Injury To Note

Atlanta Hawks leading scorer Dennis Schroder will miss Thursday’s game against the Chicago Bulls. Schroder, a shoot-first (and probably second too) point guard, has limited range but excels at creating his shot. He sat out Monday against the Miami Heat and the Hawks lost 93-104.

Referee Assignment to Watch

Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls

The Hawks are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games officiated by NBA ref Karl Lane.

Trends

*The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
*The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
*The Blazers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.

Consensus

Over 60 percent of players expect the Portland Trail Blazers to cover as 3-point home favorites against the Los Angeles Clippers.

 

[Pesos]

NHL Knowledge

San Jose is 3-5 in its last eight games with the Bruins, 1-3 in last four visits to Benton. Over is 4-2 in last six series games. Sharks won three of their last four games; they’re 2-1 on road. Under is 4-2 in their last six games. Boston lost four of their last six games; they’ve split four home games. Over is 4-1 in their last five games.

Rangers won their last seven games with Arizona (over 4-1-2); Coyotes lost their last five visits to Manhattan. Arizona is 0-9 to start the season; they were outscored 18-10 n losing their four road games. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. New York lost six of their last seven games; they’re 2-6 at home. Over is 3-1 in their last four games.

Penguins won nine of last ten games with Winnipeg; over is 6-2 in last eight series games. Jets lost their last five games in the Steel City. Winnipeg won four of its last five games; over is 6-1 in their games this month. Jets are 2-1 on the road. Pittsburgh won six of last eight games; over is 5-1 in their last six games. Penguins are 3-1 at home this season.

Toronto won three of last four games with Carolina; road team won five of last six series games. Hurricanes won three of last four games in this building. Last nine series games stayed under the total. Carolina lost four of last six games; over is 3-1 in their last four games. Hurricanes split their four road games. Leafs won seven of first nine games (over 7-2); they’re 4-1 at home.

Tampa Bay won its last eight games with Detroit; they won last four visits to the Motor City. Under is 2-1-1 in last four series games. Red Wings lost their last five games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Detroit is 2-3 on the road. Lightning won seven of last eight games; they’re 5-0 at home this season. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Flyers won four of last five games with Ottawa; they’re 2-3 in last five visits to Ottawa. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine series games. Philly are 3-2 in last five games; they split their four road games. Over is 4-2 in their last six games. Senators lost three of their last four games, all at home; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Ottawa is 1-5 at home, with four losses in OT/SO.

Kings won six of last nine games with Montreal; over is 4-1-2 in last seven series games. LA split its last four games in this building. Kings won five of their last six games; they’re 3-1 on road. Over is 4-3 in their last seven games. Montreal lost seven of last eight games, last five of which went over total. Canadiens are 1-2 at home this season.

Panthers won four of last six games with Anaheim; under is 2-0-2 in last four series games. Ducks lost three of last four games in the building. Anaheim are 3-4 in its last seven games (under 5-2); they split their two road games. Florida lost four of its last five games; over is 7-1 in their last eight games. Panthers are 2-1 at home this season.

Islanders won three of last four games with Minnesota; over is 6-2 in last eight series games. Isles won three of last five visits to the Twin Cities. New York won its last three games, scoring 14 goals (over 3-0); they’re 2-3 on the road. Minnesota lost three of its last four games; they’re 0-2 at home, losing 5-4ot/1-0. Over is 5-1-1 in their games this season.

Dallas is 6-4 in last 10 games with Edmonton but lost last two; Stars lost three of last four games in Edmonton (under 3-1). Dallas Stars won four of last five games but they’re 1-3 on road- their last three games went over the total. Edmonton lost six of its last seven games; they’re 1-3 at home. Oilers’ last three games stayed under the total.

Washington won its last four games with Vancouver; over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. Capitals are 2-3 in last five visits here, but won last two. Washington lost five of last seven games; they’re 3-2 on road. Over is 6-3 in their games this season. Canucks are back from a 4-1 road trip; they’re 1-3 at home this season (over 2-2).

 

[Pesos]

NHL Long Sheet

SAN JOSE (4-4-0-0, 8 pts.) at BOSTON (3-3-0-1, 7 pts.) - 10/26/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 1-7 ATS (-7.2 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 400-319 ATS (-117.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 39-24 ATS (+12.8 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 89-65 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 119-91 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.
BOSTON is 23-26 ATS (-12.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 7-11 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 13-18 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 5-9 ATS (-9.7 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 2-2 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 2-2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.2 Units)

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ARIZONA (0-8-0-1, 1 pts.) at NY RANGERS (2-6-0-2, 6 pts.) - 10/26/2017, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 4-0 (+4.0 Units) against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 4-0-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

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WINNIPEG (4-3-0-0, 8 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (6-3-0-1, 13 pts.) - 10/26/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 10-6 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

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CAROLINA (3-3-0-1, 7 pts.) at TORONTO (7-2-0-0, 14 pts.) - 10/26/2017, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 4-19 ATS (+32.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 83-100 ATS (-58.3 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.
TORONTO is 359-385 ATS (-28.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-2 (+2.3 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.1 Units)

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DETROIT (4-5-0-1, 9 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (8-1-0-1, 17 pts.) - 10/26/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 9-25 ATS (+34.1 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 362-409 ATS (-163.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 162-201 ATS (-77.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 12-3 (+8.8 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 12-3-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.3 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (5-4-0-0, 10 pts.) at OTTAWA (4-1-0-4, 12 pts.) - 10/26/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-28 ATS (+43.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 59-51 ATS (+4.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 34-24 ATS (+59.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 0-5 ATS (-5.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-2 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-2-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.0 Units)

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LOS ANGELES (7-1-0-1, 15 pts.) at MONTREAL (2-6-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/26/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 189-228 ATS (-74.7 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
MONTREAL is 22-38 ATS (-23.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 3-2 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 3-2-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

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ANAHEIM (4-3-0-1, 9 pts.) at FLORIDA (3-5-0-0, 6 pts.) - 10/26/2017, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 232-183 ATS (+32.3 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
FLORIDA is 170-194 ATS (+385.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
FLORIDA is 152-228 ATS (-78.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 2-2 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 2-2-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.2 Units)

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NY ISLANDERS (5-3-0-1, 11 pts.) at MINNESOTA (2-3-0-2, 6 pts.) - 10/26/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 6-14 ATS (-11.2 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-17 ATS (-11.9 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 3-1 (+2.2 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
NY ISLANDERS is 3-1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+2.2 Units)

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DALLAS (5-4-0-0, 10 pts.) at EDMONTON (2-5-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/26/2017, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 50-33 ATS (+83.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more since 1996.
DALLAS is 192-163 ATS (+22.8 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
DALLAS is 36-16 ATS (+16.3 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-3-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.4 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

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WASHINGTON (4-4-0-1, 9 pts.) at VANCOUVER (5-3-0-1, 11 pts.) - 10/26/2017, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 1-7 ATS (-11.1 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 178-211 ATS (-74.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 371-344 ATS (-94.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 (+4.0 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-0-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.0 Units)

 

[Pesos]

StatFox Super Situations

DETROIT at TAMPA BAY
Play On - Home teams against the money line (TAMPA BAY) after a blowout win by 4 goals or more against opponent after a low scoring game where both teams scored 1 goal or less 26-4 since 1997. ( 86.7% | 21.6 units )

DETROIT at TAMPA BAY
Play On - Any team against the money line (TAMPA BAY) after a blowout win by 4 goals or more against opponent after a low scoring game where both teams scored 1 goal or less 56-24 since 1997. ( 70.0% | 32.8 units )

WINNIPEG at PITTSBURGH
Play Against - Road teams against the money line (WINNIPEG) off a close home win by 1 goal, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season 44-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.1% | 27.1 units )

 

[Pesos]

NHL Picks and Betting Tips

MORNING LINE REPORT

We ended up passing on yesterday’s two games but watching the line movement sure was interesting. Columbus dropped late morning to -211 which wasn’t enough for us to get involved but skyrocketed throughout the day and evening to nearly -300. It was a tremendous spot for the Jackets but that was just a silly line. I felt bad for all the numbers guys who were forced into taking a late position on Buffalo at the inflated price as they knew it was most likely a losing bet. In a case like last night where the line soared late before the game, I consider those to be false moves and not worth firing back on. The market is shaped by mid-afternoon and any late moves like that for no apparent reason (no late injuries or goaltending change) are not indicative of the true market number.

We’re back in action tonight with another 11-game slate and there’s a bit of value to be found. Let’s get into things.

SAN JOSE SHARKS @ BOSTON BRUINS

Projected Goaltenders
San Jose – Martin Jones (probable)
Boston – Tuukka Rask (likely)

Injury Report
San Jose – Martin (out)
Boston – Krejci (out), Spooner (out), McQuaid (out), Miller (probable)

The San Jose Sharks continue their East Coast road trip after evening their record at 4-4-0 with Monday’s 4-1 win over the Rangers. The Sharks went 6-for-6 on the penalty kill and Martin Jones was fantastic. Jones has really turned it on after a slow start and has now only allowed five goals over his last four starts.

Logan Couture continued his strong start to the season with another goal and assist, giving him 8 goals and ten points through the first eight games. Couture is one of the most underrated centers in the league and this could be a huge breakout year for him.

The Boston Bruins let two points slip through their hands after blowing a three goal lead in Saturday’s 5-4 overtime loss to Buffalo. Injuries continue to be the Bruins biggest issue as David Krejci was the latest to hit the list after missing last game with back spasms. Krejci will both games this weekend and is currently week-to-week. Boston played their first five games without their number one center before Bergeron finally returned and will now have to overcome the loss of their number two center. Riley Nash and Tim Schaller are expected to rotate to fill the hole and Cassidy may even try David Backes at times.

Tuukka Rask was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice after missing two games due to a concussion. He still needs to receive clearance to play but there’s a strong chance he’ll be ready to go for tonight. Khudobin gave up eight goals in the last two games so having Rask back will be a big boost. Defenseman Kevan Miller also practiced on Wednesday without any limitations and is officially a game-time decision but Cassidy said he expects him to play.

BetOnline is the only sportsbook I see who has a line on this game right now and I’m surprised they have it up with Rask’s status in question. It currently sits at -120 which is a little short if Rask plays. Due to this line not being widely available I won’t lock this is as a play and we’ll wait until it opens across the board to decide what to do here.

ARIZONA COYOTES @ NEW YORK RANGERS

Projected Goaltenders
Arizona – Antti Raanta/Louis Domingue/Adin Hill (unknown)
NY Rangers – Ondrej Pavelec (confirmed)

Injury Report
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Perlini (probable)
NY Rangers – no significant injuries

The Arizona Coyotes will try once again for their first win of the season against the team who currently holds the longest winless streak to ever begin a season after falling 5-3 to the Islanders on Tuesday. It will be Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta’s first return to New York after being traded to Arizona during the offseason and while Stepan will get a crack at his old mates there’s a chance Raanta may as well. Raanta made a surprise return to practice yesterday and although it’s unlikely he will be ready for game action tonight, it’s encouraging to see his return is near. Louis Domingue has been atrocious with Adin Hill not much better and the poor play in net has been the major reason the team is still searching for a win. The Coyotes underlying metrics are actually much better than their 0-8-1 record suggest so there’s hope this team can still turn things around. Getting a healthy Raanta back would be a big first step.

Brendan Perlini was taken off IR yesterday and could be in the lineup tonight. Perlini scored 14 goals last year in 57 games and will help their depth scoring.

The New York Rangers fell to 2-6-2 after Monday’s 4-1 loss to San Jose. It was another disappointing effort from many of New York’s top players and they simply need more from them. This will be Rick Nash’s 1000th career game and it would be nice if he showed up. Nash has just a single goal and no assists through the first ten games and is just one of several key players off to ice cold starts.

Pavelec will start tonight as the Rangers wrap up a six game homestand.

This line isn’t available yet due to the possibility of Raanta making a return. He is a significant upgrade over Domingue or Hill so we’ll have to wait on his status before doing anything here.

WINNIPEG JETS @ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

Projected Goaltenders
Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck (confirmed)
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray (probable)

Injury Report
Winnipeg – Perreault (out), Lowry (out)
Pittsburgh – Schultz (doubtful), Hunwick (doubtful)

The Winnipeg Jets have won four of five after a 0-2 start and now hit the road for a tough back-to-back in Pittsburgh and Columbus after having the last five days off.

The Jets still don’t have an even-strength goal from their bottom six and as a result Nic Petan was the latest scapegoat this week being sent down to the AHL. Matt Hendricks was activated off the IR and will make his season debut tonight on a fourth line with Brendan Lemieux and Joel Armia.

Defenseman Dmitri Kulikov is now healthy after missing two games and will return tonight. Jacob Trouba is also expected to play after missing Wednesday’s practice. Hellebuyck has started all four of the Jets victories and he’ll get the start tonight with Mason expected to go tomorrow.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have won three in a row on home ice after Tuesday’s hard fought 2-1 win over Edmonton. The win came at a price though as defenseman Justin Schultz suffered a concussion after taking an elbow to the head. He joins Matt Hunwick who has also been out with a concussion. Neither are expected to play tonight but Sullivan called them “doubtful” after yesterday’s practice so I won’t completely confirm them as out.

This line seems criminally low at just -170 and even if my numbers are lower on Winnipeg than most, I just can’t get to that low of a number so the Penguins will be locked in as our first play tonight.

CAROLINA HURRICANES @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Projected Goaltenders
Carolina – Scott Darling (probable)
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (probable)

Injury Report
Carolina – Stempniak (out)
Toronto – van Riemsdyk (probable)

The Carolina Hurricanes have dropped two straight in tough games against Dallas and Tampa Bay and now travel to Toronto for another stiff test.

The Canes are expected to go with the same lineup as Tuesday’s 5-1 loss to Tampa Bay which means Scott Darling will get the start. Carolina will travel home to play St. Louis tomorrow night where Cam Ward will likely start.

The Toronto Maple Leafs put a strong performance together for Monday’s 3-2 win over Los Angeles despite Auston Matthews being held without a point for just the second time this season.

James van Riemsdyk missed Wednesday’s practice but Babcock said they expect him to play tonight.

This line is about where I have it so we’ll move on from here and look for better spots.

DETROIT RED WINGS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Projected Goaltenders
Detroit – Jimmy Howard (likely)
Tampa Bay – Andrei Vasilevskiy (probable)

Injury Report
Detroit – Athanasiou (questionable), DeKeyser (questionable)
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries

The Detroit Red Wings have now lost five straight games after being shutout 1-0 in Buffalo on Tuesday and are quickly sliding down the standings after their hot start. Help may be on the way though as Andreas Athanasiou’s visa came through quicker than expected and after passing his physical he practiced with the team on Wednesday, skating on a line with Frans Nielsen while also on the second powerplay unit. Blashill said there’s a good chance he suits up tonight but wouldn’t confirm it yet.

Defenseman Danny DeKeyser is also close to a return after missing the last seven games. He’s been practicing regularly with the team and Blashill said he should return either tonight or Saturday in Florida.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are a perfect 5-0-0 at home and 8-1-1 overall as everything is clicking early. Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos continue terrorizing opposing defenses and Vasilevskiy has won a career high seven straight starts.

I’m not going to spend much time on this game as I have no interest in stepping in front of the Bolts right now. This line seems heavily inflated to me and there’s value on Detroit if you want to play them but I’m going to pass.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS @ OTTAWA SENATORS

Projected Goaltenders
Philadelphia – Michal Neuvirth (confirmed)
Ottawa – Craig Anderson (confirmed)

Injury Report
Philadelphia – MacDonald (out), Simmonds (questionable)
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Turris (out), Ryan (out), Z. Smith (out)

The Philadelphia Flyers dropped a 6-2 decision to Anaheim on Tuesday as they wrapped up an otherwise successful homestand and now hit the road for the first time in 16 days.

The Flyers received a scare when Nolan Patrick had to leave the game after having his head slammed into the glass during the second period and did not return. He passed concussion tests and fully practiced Wednesday and has been ruled good to go for tonight.

Hakstol is changing up his defensive pairs tonight with a move I really like. The new top pair will be Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere which could become one of the most underrated pairs in the league if they stick together. Andy MacDonald is expected to be out at least a month so hopefully we’ll get to see this pair develop some chemistry. Rookies Travis Sanheim and Robert Hagg have performed well thus far and Hakstol is placing confidence in them by pairing them together as the second pair. Brandon Manning and Radko Gudas will form the third pair.

Wayne Simmonds is questionable for tonight after missing Wednesday’s practice. He was being evaluated for a lower-body injury but no further update has been provided.

Michal Neuvirth will get the start tonight and he’s been a hard-luck loser in two of his three starts. Don’t let the 1-2-0 record fool you though as Neuvirth has only allowed four goals in those three games and currently leads the entire NHL with a 1.36 goals-against average and a .957 save percentage.

The Ottawa Senators wrap up a five game homestand tonight and the Canadian Tire Center has been anything but friendly as the team has lost five of six games on home ice. The Senators were supposed to be in good shape after surviving Erik Karlsson’s absence but now the forwards group has taken a hit with multiple key injuries in their top-six. After losing Bobby Ryan and Zack Smith, Kyle Turris is the latest to go down after missing Wednesday’s practice with a bad case of the flu and is not expected to play tonight. Boucher says the flu bug is running rampant throughout the locker room.

Ottawa’s new makeshift top-six looks unfamiliar with a top line of Burrows-Brassard-Stone and Hoffman-Pageau-Pyatt on the second line but the bottom-six looks downright ugly with Dzingel-Thompson-DiDomenico and McCormick-Chlapik-Rodewald. If some of those names look strange to you don’t worry, I had to look a couple of them up myself.

This line has taken a lot of Flyers money overnight falling from the -130 open down to the current -113 and based on those Senators line combos it’s pretty clear to see why. This number has moved too much in my opinion and if it goes any further we’ll have value on Ottawa tonight which is pretty scary. They have a likely tougher game in New Jersey tomorrow night where the depth concerns should crop up so look for them to step up tonight and give everything they have. It’s no play right now but it may be added later this morning.

LOS ANGELES KINGS @ MONTREAL CANADIENS

Projected Goaltenders
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (probable)
Montreal – Carey Price (probable)

Injury Report
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Carter (out), Clifford (out)
Montreal – Schlemko (out), Hemsky (out)

Los Angeles and Montreal will meet for the second time this season after the Kings drubbed the Habs 5-1 back in LA. That game was tied 1-1 heading into the third and Montreal generally played much better than the final score indicated.

The Kings bounced back from their first loss in regulation in Toronto with a 3-2 win in Ottawa Tuesday night as they continue a difficult six game road trip. Tonight will be Los Angeles’ fourth game in six nights.

Montreal snapped a seven game winless streak with an offensive breakout in Tuesday’s 5-1 win versus Florida which cashed a nice ticket for us. I mentioned that day about how Montreal’s advanced metrics showed they weren’t as bad as their record has shown so it was nice to finally see some good bounces go their way. Everything clicked well with Carey Price looking sharp, the powerplay striking twice and they dominated play while 5-on-5.

We’re going with Montreal again tonight as this line has opened short which isn’t a surprise. We should see some value on Montreal over the next few games while the Kings will continue to be overvalued for the short-term. This is a good spot for Montreal so I would bend a little bit on the line here. Anything up to my listed range (-122) I would play.

ANAHEIM DUCKS @ FLORIDA PANTHERS

Projected Goaltenders
Anaheim – John Gibson (probable)
Florida – James Reimer (confirmed)

Injury Report
Anaheim – Kesler (out), Eaves (out), Vatanen (out), Fowler (out)
Florida – no significant injuries

The Anaheim Ducks have won back-to-back games with a 6-2 score as they continue to work their way back to a healthy lineup. The importance of having Ryan Getzlaf and Hampus Lindholm back in the mix cannot be undersold and both were major contributors last game.

The Florida Panthers are still awaiting word on the severity of Roberto Luongo’s hand injury but made another strange roster move with the claiming of backup goaltender Antti Niemi who Pittsburgh had placed on waivers. Florida was one of the most promising young franchises not too long ago but ownership has made several head-scratching moves over the past year and picking up Niemi certainly qualifies near the top of that list.

After Tuesday’s 5-1 loss at Montreal the team didn’t get back to South Florida and to bed until about 5 a.m. after the long travel so they took Wednesday off.

This line opened just below where I have it but has seen a slight move to Anaheim early this morning. The Ducks are getting healthier but they still have some significant injuries and Florida should be favored a little more than the current number. We’ll lock the Panthers in as another value play.

NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ MINNESOTA WILD

Projected Goaltenders
NY Islanders – Thomas Greiss (confirmed)
Minnesota – Devan Dubnyk (probable)

Injury Report
NY Islanders – Ho-Sang (out)
Minnesota – Niederreiter (out), Parise (out), Coyle (out)

The New York Islanders are on a bit of a roll now after Tuesday’s 5-3 victory over Arizona giving them a three game win streak.

The interesting news for the Isles here is they sent Josh Ho-Sang down to Bridgeport in the AHL which I can’t imagine is going over well with the fan base. It’s also a bit odd since Weight just said on Tuesday that Ho-Sang could return to the lineup this game. Listening to Weight talk about him it doesn’t seem like Ho-Sang is one of his favorite players which is too bad because he’s one of the most exciting players the Islanders have to showcase.

The Minnesota Wild kicked off a six game homestand with a disappointing 1-0 loss to Vancouver on Tuesday night. The Wild were the slightly better team overall but couldn’t solve Anders Nilsson. Despite the Wild’s injuries to their top-six forwards it was the first game this season they’ve been held under two goals.

This line opened about ten cents too short but has moved up to where it should be overnight so we’ll likely sit this one out.

DALLAS STARS @ EDMONTON OILERS

Projected Goaltenders
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Edmonton – Cam Talbot (probable)

Injury Report
Dallas – Johns (out)
Edmonton – Sekera (out)

The Dallas Stars stumbled on their first game of their road trip with a 5-3 loss at Colorado on Tuesday and now they’ll spend the next week in Western Canada.

Ben Bishop was pulled after allowing three goals on 17 shots and he let it be known after the game he wasn’t very happy with Hitchcock and his decision to remove him. The Stars were only down 3-2 at the time and Bishop felt the team could come back. Hitchcock defended his decision by saying the team looked “dozy” and he was looking to wake them up. Both sides said yesterday it wouldn’t be an issue moving forward.

The Edmonton Oilers schedule isn’t about to get any easier now that they’ve returned home to begin a five game homestand. After road tilts in Chicago, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh the Oilers will welcome Dallas, Washington and Pittsburgh for the next three.

Edmonton has looked better the last couple of games (both 2-1 losses) but there’s still an obvious lack of speed throughout the lineup which was such a key to last year’s success.

This line is currently where I think it should be so we’ll likely sit this one out and move on.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Projected Goaltenders
Washington – Braden Holtby (probable)
Vancouver – Anders Nilsson/Jacob Markstrom (unknown)

Injury Report
Washington – Niskanen (out), Burakovsky (out)
Vancouver – Edler (out), Stecher (out), Eriksson (out)

The Washington Capitals dropped their third in four games after Tuesday’s 4-1 loss to Florida and just don’t look like the same team as last year’s President Trophy winners which has worked out well for us. We’re faded the Capitals four times so far this season and are 3-1 in those games (we did play on Washington once which they won so we’re 4-1 in Caps games which has made them a very good team to us).

The Capitals depth took another hit with the loss of Andre Burakovsky who will miss six to eight weeks after having thumb surgery this week.

Alex Ovechkin has considerably cooled off after his torrid start and hasn’t scored an even-strength goal in five games now. He’ll have a new linemate tonight as Alex Chiasson has been moved to the top line. I can’t imagine that helping to get Ovechkin back in the goal column but the Caps are limited in options right now and need to try and create some balanced lines.

The Vancouver Canucks open a five game homestand tonight after a very successful road trip which saw them win four of five, including an Anders Nilsson 1-0 shutout Tuesday in Minnesota to wrap up the trip.

Travis Green has the Canucks playing a smart brand of hockey and I’ve been impressed with how he’s handled his line combos and ice-time. I also mentioned how I thought this team would be better with Nilsson in net instead of Markstrom. Nilsson has two shutouts in his three starts which is two more shutouts than Markstrom has in 115 career starts. Hopefully Green does the right thing and give Nilsson his first home start of the season tonight.

My numbers gave a bit of a strange output for this game and the range is much wider than usual. The current line is within this number so we’ll just sit this one out tonight.

 

[Pesos]

NHL Situational Betting:

Boston Bruins – The Bruins have all sorts of problems. Four days off probably helped the team hit the reset button and get back to basics, but the team also has to do it without Tuukka Rask, who suffered a concussion after getting run over in practice last week. This isn’t the best spot for the Sharks, who will be playing their fourth straight game in Eastern Time, though they do have two days off for this one. The Sharks certainly have the chance to get right for this game with the extra downtime and extra time to adjust after playing three games in four days in their first three roadies of the season. They might be worth a look here if the price is right.

Los Angeles Kings at Montreal Canadiens – The Rapid Revenge Theory is in play for this game on Thursday night. The Kings knocked off the Canadiens in emphatic fashion at home eight days ago in a 5-1 romp. The shots on goal were 42-37, though, so it was closer than the score would indicate. Montreal will enter this game with either one or two wins and owns, by far, the worst goal differential in the NHL. It has been a complete disaster of a start for the Habs, who were expected to start stronger with Claude Julien, who injected some life into the team after his hiring late in the season. The Kings are in a pretty bad spot here with their third game in four nights. The Habs will be playing just their fourth home game of the season. They might be worth a look, especially if they open on the plus money side.

Washington Capitals at Vancouver Canucks – The first home game back after a long trip is generally a good fade spot. The Canucks have three days off after hosting the Washington Capitals in this one. Vancouver wrapped up a stretch of five games in eight nights with a ton of travel against Minnesota on Tuesday. Normally, a team like Washington would get the competitive juices flowing, but the Canucks have a lot to look forward to with the downtime. On the Washington side, they have four days off prior to this game and prior to playing three games in four nights on the Western Canada swing. Vancouver is an easy team to overlook, but the sluggish start for Barry Trotz’s team should keep the Caps focused. Lay it and play it.

Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs – I’m not sure what we get from the Hurricanes on Thursday night, but I can tell you what I’m hoping to get. The Hurricanes play a standalone road game up at Air Canada Centre against a very good Toronto team. The spot is pretty bad for the Hurricanes, as this is a pretty long trip for a standalone game. The Maple Leafs have two days off prior to this one and play a vastly different style than the Hurricanes. Entering this week, Carolina games have 33 combined goals in six contests. The Maple Leafs have 65 in eight games. Carolina can’t really keep pace in an arms race and I hope they don’t. Because….

 

[Pesos]

In the Crease - Week 4

Vegas, Baby

The Vegas Golden Knights certainly do not look like an expansion side. Even with their first adversity, the club continues to excel. They have been playing without Marc-Andre Fleury, who is on the Injured Reserve list and in the concussion protocol. That's OK, as Malcolm Subban stepped in and cut the mustard. However, he has since joined MAF on the Injured Reserve list due to a lower-body injury. In steps Oscar Dansk and Maxime LaGace, not exactly household names. But the train keeps rolling, as Vegas has won seven of their first eight games. Instead of looking like an expansion team, Vegas is looking like a postseason contender.

Lightning...and the Thunder

The Tampa Bay Lightning have had more hits than the Imagine Dragons this season, opening 8-1-0-1 over their first 10 games, including a perfect 5-0-0 at home. They also lead the NHL with a plus-16 goal differential, three better than any other team in the league. Los Angeles has scored at least two goals in each of their 10 outings, and they have fallen in regulation just once this season, at Toronto back on Oct. 23. The fun continues in Montreal on Thursday night. They already toasted the Canadiens by a 5-1 score back on Oct. 18 at Staples Center. The Kings are now 6-1 over their past seven against Eastern Conference clubs, and 6-2 over their past eight against losing teams.

Looking Ahead

Thursday, October 26

Two clubs ranking among the worst goal differentials in the NHL hook up at Madison Square Garden when the Coyotes and Rangers hook up. Arizona is dead-last in the NHL with a minus-18 differential, while the Rangers surprisingly rank 28th out of 31 teams with a minus-11. Something's gotta give at MSG. The Blueshirts have dominated this series in the past, winning 12 of their past 14 home games against the Coyotes, while going 15-3 in the past 18 meetings overall. The home team has skated away with two points in 10 of the past 14 in this series, too. 'Over' bettors might look for a lot of goals in this one, as the over is 8-2-6 in the past 16 in this series, including 5-2-2 in the past nine at MSG.

The Flyer look to keep the Senators down, although Philly will have to do something they haven't had a lot of success doing lately - win on the road. Philadelphia is just 8-23 over their past 31 trips away from the City of Brotherly Love, while going 1-5 in their past six against teams with a losing overall record. Fortunately for Philly, the Sens are just 1-5 in their past six games at home, while going 1-5 in their past six against Metropolitan Division clubs. While the Fly Guys are 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series, they have a dismal 9-23-5 record across the past 37 trips to Ottawa. The home team is 23-11 in the past 34 in this series, too.

 

[Pesos]

Projected Starting Goalies:

1 San Jose Sharks +100 Over 5½ -105 Jones: 4-2-0, 2.35, 0.926 (1-0-1, 3.79, .870)
2 Boston Bruins -120 Under 5½ -115 Khudobin: 2-0-1, 2.98, 0.910 (2-1-0, 0.98, .965)

3 Arizona Coyotes +150 Over 6 -110 Hill: 0-2-0, 3.60, 0.889 (1st start vs. NYR)
4 New York Rangers -170 Under 6 -110 Pavelec: 0-2-0, 3.76, 0.860 (7-2-1, 2.19, .927)

5 Winnipeg Jets +150 Over 6½ -105 Hellebuyck: 4-0-0, 2.32, 0.928 (1-1-1, 3.50, .893)
6 Pittsburgh Penguins -170 Under 6½ -115 Murray: 6-0-1, 3.05, .905 (1-0-0, 4.00, .886)

7 Carolina Hurricanes +145 Over 6 -110 Darling: 2-3-1, 2.64, 0.896 (3-0-0, 2.29, .930)
8 Toronto Maple Leafs -165 Under 6 -110 Andersen: 6-2-0, 3.24, 0.900 (3-1-0, 2.76, .924)

9 Detroit Red Wings +180 Over 5½ -115 Howard: 3-3-0, 2.54, 0.924 (5-4-2, 2.21, .926)
10 Tampa Bay Lightning -220 Under 5½ -105 Vasilevskiy: 8-1-0, 2.22, 0.936 (4-0-0, 1.82, .941)

11 Philadelphia Flyers -105 Over 5½ -115 Neuvirth: 1-2-0, 1.36, 0.957 (4-1-1, 1.85, .939)
12 Ottawa Senators -115 Under 5½ -105 Anderson: 3-1-3, 2.48, 0.915 (10-5-3, 2.56, .923)

13 Los Angeles Kings +105 Over 5½ +115 *Quick: 5-1-1, 2.15, 0.934 (5-2-0, 1.98, .923)
14 Montreal Canadiens -125 Under 5½ -135 Price: 2-5-1, 3.54, 0.890 (6-1-0, 2.46, .920)

15 Anaheim Ducks +110 Over 5½ -115 *Gibson: 4-2-1, 2.48, 0.933 (0-2-0, 3.16, .906)
16 Florida Panthers -130 Under 5½ -105 Reimer: 2-3-0, 3.58, 0.903 (2-0-0, 1.00, .966)

17 New York Islanders +115 Over 5½ -110 Greiss: 2-1-1, 3.05, 0.917 (3-2-0, 2.22, .925)
18 Minnesota Wild -135 Under 5½ -110 Dubnyk: 1-3-1, 3.25, 0.899 (3-4-0, 3.09, .907)

19 Dallas Stars +110 Over 6 +100 Bishop: 5-1-0, 2.38, 0.920 (5-1-1, 1.82, .939)
20 Edmonton Oilers -130 Under 6 -120 *Talbot: 2-4-1, 2.79, 0.915 (2-2-1, 2.43, .918)

21 Washington Capitals -140 Over 5½ +105 *Holtby: 4-2-0, 2.32, 0.929 (3-1-0, 1.76, .935)
22 Vancouver Canucks +120 Under 5½ -125 Nilsson: 2-1-0, 1.84, 0.949 (0-3-1, 3.64, .882)

 

[Pesos]

Cappers Club ; CFB

South Alabama -2

 

[Pesos]

Vernon Croy ; CFB

Oregon St +23

 

[Pesos]

Indian Cowboy ; CFB

Eastern Michigan +7

 

[Pesos]

Dave Cokin ; CFB

Georgia State pk

 

[Pesos]

Tommy Brunson ; CFB

Eastern Michigan

 

[Pesos]

Joey Juice ; NFL

baltimore Under

 

[Pesos]

Jeff Benton ; NBA

Boston

 

[Pesos]

Chris Jordan ; NBA

Milwaukee

 

[Pesos]

John Martin ; NBA

Dallas +8

 

[Pesos]

Scott Spreitzer ; NBA

Chicago -2.5

 

[Pesos]

Jack Jones ; CFB

Toledo -24