Thursday 10/26/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

Pesos · Oct 24, 2017

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

Soccer

Belgium - Division 1

2:30pm ET

Royal Antwerp v Standard Liege

Referee: Bram van Driessche

Last Head-To-Heads at Royal Antwerp:
0-4 (Standard Liege win)
1-1
0-0
1-2 (Standard Liege Win)

Recent Form:
Royal Antwerp: 2-2-2
Standard Liege: 3-1-2

KEY STAT: Antwerp have won only one of their last nine meetings with Standard

EXPERT VERDICT: It’s now one defeat in six for Standard Liege, who have found some form after a tepid start to the campaign. Sunday’s 3-1 success at Royal Excel Mouscron was a timely first away win of the season and they can be confident going to Antwerp, who have lost two of their last three.

RECOMMENDATION: Standard Liege (1)

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #7 - BELMONT PARK - 4:13 PM EASTERN POST
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $42,500.00 OPTIONAL CLAIMING $80,000.00 PURSE

#1 LEWYS VAPAORIZER / #1A VERY VERY STELLA
#4 ZOOT SUIT
#6 SUMMER REVOLUTION
#7 ALWAYS A SUSPECT

#1 LEWYS VAPORIZER qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," has won half of his 18 career starts to date, sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, drops in class (-4), and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of his last four outings, winning in both his 2nd and 4th races back, which is indicative of "Bounce Pattern" folks, and the BoUnCe will be UP/POSITIVE this afternoon if this pattern continues. The stablemate, #1A VERY VERY STELLA is the overall speed leader, and comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" in his last starts. The 8-1 shot, #4 ZOOT SUIT, has exceptional early speed for this sprint, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of his last four outings, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his 2nd and 3rd races back.

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 2

Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (2-3)

Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 63 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 7:29P
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BINN GOODE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BINN GOODE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3
BINN GOODE
2/1

3/2

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 7

DD (Races 7-8) / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) Pick 4 (.50 min.) (Races 7-8-9-10) / Superfecta (.10 min.)

Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 8:16P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * FONDA CARLOS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top th ree in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LITTLE MISS SPARKY: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. HEAVENLY QUEST: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FULL FLEET: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(spri nt or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
11
FONDA CARLOS
4/1

5/1
12
LITTLE MISS SPARKY
10/1

6/1
4
HEAVENLY QUEST
7/2

6/1
3
FULL FLEET
5/2

8/1

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $19200 Class Rating: 84

FOR FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A STATE BRED RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 26 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 INGRID 3/1

# 2 GRASSARLA 4/1

# 10 BELLEOFTHEPRAIRIE 6/1

I give the nod to INGRID here. Should best this group of animals here, showing competitive numbers of late. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of very good win percentage - 21 percent - at this distance & surface. Will almost certainly go to the lead and might never look back. GRASSARLA - Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. Will more than likely be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the midpoint of the affair. BELLEOFTHEPRAIRIE - Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (72 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. When this rider and handler team up, wagerers often make money.

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #1 - Post: 3:10pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating: 4

#1 DEVOUT TYPE (ML=5/1)
#3 GRITTY KITTY (ML=5/2)

DEVOUT TYPE - We have lots of early speed with this steed. She could wire this field. Ran on the wrong surface in her last contest. The speed rating of 68 on Aug 27th at Arlington two races back is good enough to win this race. GRITTY KITTY - The 66 last race fig looks strong on paper. This filly is number one in earnings per start (EPS). Check out this animal in the paddock.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 POLAR AIR (ML=7/2), #7 HARANSTOWN (ML=4/1), #2 GREELEYS DELIGHT (ML=9/2),

POLAR AIR - This filly finished out of the money on September 15th and wasn't close to victory in the last race either. HARANSTOWN - Can't wager on this racer in today's sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance race lately. 4/1 odds isn't enough for this one when scrutinizing the most recent showings. Don't believe this steed will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed figure was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class figure. GREELEYS DELIGHT - When checking today's class rating, she will have to notch a much better speed figure than last time out to battle in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 DEVOUT TYPE on the win end if we get at least 9/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $33000 Class Rating: 55

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 9 TIME TO TELL 5/2

# 4 UNNECESSARY DRAMA 6/1

# 3 SECRET BANK 12/1

I've got to go with TIME TO TELL. With a sound rider who has won at a solid 19 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices. Pedroza has recent ROI numbers which make this horse a good wager. Is a solid choice - given the 62 speed rating from her most recent race. UNNECESSARY DRAMA - Ought to be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last contest. Is difficult not to examine based on Equibase speed figs which have been very strong - 62 avg - of late. SECRET BANK - With Prescott uptop her, this filly will most likely be able to break out early for this race. Recorded a solid speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race.

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Keeneland - Race #2 - Post: 1:39pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: 4

#1 FLATTER THE QUEEN (ML=3/1)

FLATTER THE QUEEN - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This colt's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. Graham and Colebrook perform well when they join forces. It's hard to beat a +21 return on investment for a rider and handler. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 OSO READY (ML=5/2), #1A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE (ML=3/1), #5 ROCK SHANDY (ML=9/2),

OSO READY - Not the right 'spot' in this race. PREEMPTIVE STRIKE - This horse ran a quite unimpressive fig last out. He shouldn't improve and will likely suffer defeat in today's race running that figure. ROCK SHANDY - This gelding hasn't had any in the money efforts in short distance races in the last 60 days. Hard to keep stabbing at this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #1 Entry on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
None

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

NFL

Dolphins (4-2) @ Ravens (3-4)— Miami is 4-2 despite trailing five of six games at the half. QB Cutler has multiple cracked ribs; Moore is expected to start, with untested Doughty (WKU) the backup if Cutler doesn’t dress. Moore is 15-13 as an NFL starter, but has started only 3 games since 2011. Dolphins won last three games, by 6-3-3 points; their four wins are by total of 14 points. Baltimore lost four of last five games overall; they won six of last seven series games; they whacked the Dolphins 38-6 here LY; Miami lost its last three visits to Baltimore, by 7-16-32 points. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-5. Under is 5-1 in Dolphin games; over is 4-1 in last five Raven games.

MIAMI (4 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 4) - 10/26/2017, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

MIAMI @ BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

Red-hot Dolphins face Ravens

The Dolphins will be hoping to improve to a surprising 5-2 with a win over the Ravens on Thursday.

The Dolphins looked like one of the worst teams in football after losing 20-0 against the Saints in their third game of the season. Miami was 1-2 after that game and had recently lost 20-6 against the Jets as well. The Dolphins have, however, turned their season around in a big way. Miami has won three straight games heading into this one, and the team is 2-0-1 ATS in those three contests. One of those victories was on the road against the Falcons, so it’s not like they’re facing only lousy teams. The Ravens, meanwhile, have now lost four of their past five games after losing 24-16 as a five-point underdog against the Vikings last week. Baltimore badly needs to win this game on Thursday, so expect this team to play with some intensity. The last time the Ravens hosted the Dolphins was on Dec. 4, 2015, when Baltimore won 38-6 as a three-point home favorite. The Ravens are now 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS when hosting the Dolphins since 1992, and Baltimore has also covered in two straight against Miami coming into this one. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that the Ravens are 15-4 ATS after failing to cover in four or five of their previous six games under head coach John Harbaugh. Harbaugh is, however, also a lousy 12-22 ATS in October games with Baltimore.

The Dolphins lost starting quarterback Jay Cutler to a rib injury last game, but luckily backup Matt Moore is every bit as good as him. Moore was the reason the Dolphins were able to pull off a ridiculous comeback victory over the Jets last week, as he threw for 188 yards with two touchdowns and only one pick after Cutler went down. Miami had no problems moving the ball with him out there and should be able to find some success against Baltimore on Thursday. It helps Moore that WR Jarvis Landry is playing at an extremely high level this season. Landry had seven catches for 93 yards and a touchdown against the Jets last week and now has three scores on the year. He has never had more than five in a season, so you can expect him to top that number this year. Look for him to potentially find the endzone in this game as well, as the Ravens do not have that great of a defense this year. Miami must, however, run the football a bit better than usual in this one. The Ravens have struggled to stop the run this year, so RB Jay Ajayi should be able to break out in this one. He has not yet rushed for a touchdown, but that could change shortly.

The Ravens need a victory on Thursday or the team runs the risk of falling far too behind in the playoff race. Baltimore does not want to be 3-5, as the team has a number of tough games coming up. That means that the Ravens will need to be a lot better on both sides of the football in this one. QB Joe Flacco is the guy that must really step his game up on Thursday, as the veteran has thrown for just 1,189 yards with five touchdowns and a pathetic eight picks. He is not taking care of the football this year and he has also struggled to manufacture any sort of momentum on offense. It doesn’t help Flacco that Baltimore really doesn’t have any consistency in the running game, but there is no reason that the 32-year-old should be playing this poorly. He has won a Super Bowl and has played at a very high level before, so it’s a little surprising to see him performing like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. As for this defense, stopping the run would be a start. Baltimore has not yet done that this season, but that would really help against a mediocre Miami offense.

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Dolphins at Ravens

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 37)

Journeyman Matt Moore is fresh off a brilliant comeback performance and now will serve as the starting quarterback when the Miami Dolphins visit the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday. Moore came off the bench after Jay Cutler suffered multiple cracked ribs on Sunday to rally Miami from a 14-point deficit and record a 31-28 victory over the New York Jets.

Moore threw two touchdown passes during a 17-point fourth quarter and brings a more boisterous approach than the introverted Cutler, who could miss multiple contests. "It's an emotional game and I'm an emotional player," Moore told reporters on Tuesday, two days prior to making his 29th career regular-season start. "It's always better when you're having fun. When you're kicking the dirt, that's not the way to do your job. So I try to have a good time." Miami has won three straight games, so it is experiencing better times than the Ravens, who have allowed an average of 27.6 points while losing four of their last five contests. "I wouldn't say it's a must-win," Baltimore safety Eric Weddle told reporters, "but it's definitely a big-time game that we need to try and do everything in our power to win."

LINE HISTORY: Despite all the troubles of the Ravens offense, oddsmakers are still giving them the edge at home, setting the line at Baltimore -3. The line has yet to move off the opening number. The total hit the board at a very low 37.5 and has actually moved down further to the current number of 37.

POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (1.5) - Ravens (3.5) + home field (-3) = Ravens -1

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Its going to be hard for the Dolphins and Ravens to match the excitement of last Thursday's Chiefs-Raiders thriller. That doesn't mean its not going to be an interesting game though. The Dolphins come in as the hotter team but the Ravens may well be the hungrier one. I had projected this line to be exactly where it is, so don't find a whole lot of value with the side. If the line moves off three, I'll be taking a closer look. Getting the Ravens at less than -3 (doubtful) would provide some value, while the Dolphins would start looking more interesting if the line climbed above four." - Ben Burns

INJURY REPORT:

Dolphins - QB Jay Cutler (Out Thursday, ribs), DT Jordan Phillips (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Anthony Steen (Questionable Thursday, foot), DE Andre Branch (Questionable Thursday, groin), WR DeVante Parker (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Mike Pouncey (Probable Thursday, knee), T Ja'Wuan James (Probable Thursday, hand), TE Julius Thomas (Probable Thursday, knee), RB Jay Ajayi (Probable Thursday, knee), T Laremy Tunsil (Probable Thursday, knee).

Ravens - S Eric Weddle (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Patrick Onwuasor (Questionable Thursday, knee), S Tony Jefferson (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Terrell Suggs (Questionable Thursday, knee), CB Jimmy Smith (Questionable Thursday, achilles), DB Anthony Levine (Questionable Thursday, back), WR Michael Campanaro (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), WR Chris Matthews (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Mike Wallace (Questionable Thursday, concussion), WR Breshad Perriman (Questionable Thursday, concussion), TE Maxx Williams (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Tim Williams (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Jeremy Maclin (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), RB Terrance West (Questionable Thursday, calf), TE Benjamin Watson (Probable Thursday, knee).

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS, 1-5 O/U):Running back Jay Ajayi (442 yards) is saddled with a 3.5-yard average that is well below the 4.9 mark of last season's breakthrough campaign, but he will have a shot at posting his third 100-yard performance of the year against a Baltimore squad that ranks last in the NFL in rushing defense (145.3 yards per game). Moore will try to pump life into a sagging offense that ranks 31st in scoring (15.3 points) and dead last in total offense (261.8 yards) as well as try to make a downfield threat out of receiver Jarvis Landry, who is averaging just 8.1 yards on 45 receptions. Defensive end Cameron Wake has recorded six sacks after posting 2.5 against the Jets, but the defense has made only two interceptions.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (3-4, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U):Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring offense (18.8 points) and 28th in total offense (277.6 yards) while quarterback Joe Flacco has been an underwhelming performer with five touchdown tosses and eight interceptions. "I have to be more consistent," Flacco told reporters. "That is the name of this game. In order to win the majority of your games, you have to play consistent, and you still probably are going to lose a couple." Outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (team-best 4.5 sacks) is expected to play through a knee injury, while cornerback Brandon Carr has recorded a club-leading three interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 8-0-1 in Dolphins last nine Thursday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens last five games overall.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are fairly split on this matchup, with 53 percent of bettors giving the Ravens a slight edge. The total is even closer with 51 percent of wagers on the Under.

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

TNF - Dolphins at Ravens

It's been nearly an entire decade since the Dolphins covered the spread of a game against the Ravens, last doing so in a 22-16 overtime win back in '07. You've got to go back 20 years and a week for the last time the Dolphins picked up a win in Baltimore, way back in their first visit back in 1997.

Karim Abdul-Jabbar, the running back unrelated to the Hall of Fame center, scored three touchdowns to fuel the victory. That's a blast from the past. While history may not be on Miami's side as they visit Baltimore, the form the current Ravens have put on display of late could ease their burden.

In danger of missing the playoffs for the third straight season, something they've never done under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are hoping to even their record at 4-4 with a win over the Dolphins. Although Baltimore didn't qualify for the postseason in its first four years after relocating from Cleveland, it has been part of the AFC playoff picture more than it hasn't since winning Super Bowl XXXV in 2000. Harbaugh qualified in each of his first five seasons, but will need a strong finish to avoid missing out for the fourth time over his last five.

From that standpoint, there's tremendous pressure to get off to a good start and pick up this win in a short week to move forward within striking distance of a playoff spot entering the season's second half. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti gave his GM Ozzie Newsome, Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco a vote of confidence by stating his belief in their competence and his preference for patience, but since he felt the need to do that, there's definitely cause for concern that the foundation is crashing.

Harbaugh is a perfect 5-0 at home on Thursday nights, and actually told his team's fans this week that "there are going to be good times ahead for Joe Flacco. Stick with him."

Flacco has yet to throw for even 250 yards this season, topping out at 235 in a 26-9 loss to Pittsburgh. He hasn't trusted the offensive line since it lost its most valuable member, Marshal Yanda, in the opening month. The former Super Bowl MVP has thrown eight interceptions and just five touchdowns through the first seven games, so maybe facing the team he's lit up most over the past three seasons will help him snap out of a season-long funk. Flacco threw four touchdown passes in last December's 38-6 rout of the Dolphins, utilizing advantages the Ravens had against the linebackers and DBs to post a season-best 36 completions. Dennis Pitta, who was lost to a dislocated hip in training camp, scored two touchdowns among his nine receptions for 90 yards.

Injuries have continued to play a role in the demise of the Ravens offense, which comes off being held to just 16 points in Minnesota, which is misleading since they scored with no time left after driving down the field against a defense more interested in watching the seconds tick away. Had rookie Chris Moore not tapped his toe to get both feet in on the final play of regulation on Sunday, not only would the 'under' for that game have come in, but Flacco would carry a touchdown-less streak of 13 quarters into Thursday night's game. As it is, he's thrown two TD passes in his last 22 quarters.

The defense Miami will bring into town is much improved from the version Flacco dominated 10 months ago. Linebackers Rey Maualuga and Lawrence Timmons were elsewhere last season, while Kiko Alonso continues to make plays. Up front, Cameron Wake had 2.5 sacks to help put away the Jets last week as the Dolphins rallied from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 31-28 despite losing starting QB Jay Cutler to broken ribs that will keep him out here. Backup Matt Moore, who threw for a pair of scores and 188 yards to help execute the comeback, will start for the first time since last season's AFC Wild Card playoff loss to Pittsburgh.

The Dolphins are in position to join the Steelers, Chiefs and Patriots at 5-2 with a victory here, which would be impressive since they're now on their third quarterback after losing Ryan Tannehill and now Cutler. This injury isn't likely to keep him out long, but since the offense was inconsistent with him at the helm, it's entirely possible that Moore can keep the job if he continues to excel.

Miami Dolphins
Season win total: 7 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win AFC East: 18/1 to 15/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1

Baltimore Ravens
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC North: 6/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 200/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Despite the comeback win over the Jets and the possibility of joining the AFC's elite, record-wise, the Dolphins numbers remained the same as they were the previous week. The books clearly aren't big believers in Cutler or Moore. Since they're in the same division as New England, they're not going to get much love. Still, merely from the standpoint that they've gotten off to a successful start and that injuries can pop up at any time to derail seasons, it might be worthwhile to get in on some Dolphins futures if you think they're going to pick up a win here.

The Ravens are also potentially lucrative. Considering the coaching staff knows what it takes to be successful against the AFC's elite teams, you can be confident in the leadership if nothing else. Flacco has been shaky and injuries have compromised any and all depth, so if I had to choose between these two longshots to back long-term, Miami gets my vote.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Ravens were installed as a 4.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opening the week at 3.5 at a few shops but quickly moving to 3, which is where at resides pretty much everywhere as of gameday morning. The total opened at 37-37.5, but is now most widely available at 37.

Baltimore is in the -160 range on the money line if you don't want to lay the possession just to flirt with a push, while backing the Dolphins outright will get you +140.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu conveyed what his shop is seeing as of Wednesday afternoon.

"Currently, the action for TNF is fairly split. We took a little bit of sharp money on the Ravens early, but then received just about the sames sharp money on Miami at +3.5," Cooley said. "The public likes the Dolphins with a 60-40 split. Smart money on the under as well. Despite the win streak, I don’t know if you can call the Dolphins 'hot' due to the nature of those victories, and this feels like a game Baltimore has to have."

INJURY CONCERNS

Beyond missing Cutler, the Dolphins have injury issues along the offensive line and at receiver. Left guard Anthony Steen has been ruled out, necessitating a reshuffling up front. Jesse Davis will start. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil (knee) is questionable but should play, which is fortuntate since Miami would really have to get creative if he can't go. WR DeVante Parker has been absent for the better part of two games but is hoping to return from an ankle injury to push Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills for targets. DE Andre Branch and DT Jordan Phillips are also questionable.

The Ravens ruled out RB Terrance West and TE Maxx Williams and list WRs Michael Campanaro and Chris Matthews as doubtful. WR Breshad Perriman, who scored against the Dolphins last season, cleared concussion protocol and will play, but Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace are each serious question marks. Guard Matt Skura and TE Ben Watson are questionable but expected to return to action. On the defensive end, LB Tim Williams is out, but Terrell Suggs and top corner Jimmy Smith are expected to go.

RECENT MEETINGS (Baltimore 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS last seven; UNDER 4-3)

12/4/16 Baltimore 38-6 vs. Miami (BALT -3.5, 41.5)
12/6/15 Miami 15-13 vs. Baltimore (MIA -3, 43.5)
12/7/14 Baltimore 28-13 at Miami (MIA -3, 45)
10/6/13 Baltimore 26-23 at Miami (MIA -2.5, 42.5)
11/7/10 Baltimore 26-10 vs.Miami (BALT -5, 41)
1/4/09 Baltimore 27-9 at Miami (BALT -3.5, 38)
10/19/08 Baltimore 27-13 at Miami (MIA -3, 35)

PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the OVER on field goal length and combined sacks.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Ravens -140, Dolphins +120)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Ravens -155, Dolphins +135)
Team to score first: (Ravens -125, Dolphins +105)
Team to score last: (Ravens -115, Dolphins -105)
First score: (Touchdown -130, FG/Safety +110)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over +140, Under -160)
Longest FG made: (47, Over -110/Under -110)
Total sacks by both teams combined: (4.5 Over -110, Under -110)
Will there be a score in final 2 minutes of 1st half: (Yes -210, No +175)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +220, No -260)
Will there be a TD of 38 yards or more?: (Yes +120, No -140)
Will there be a 1-yard TD?: (Yes +102, No -140)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +700, No -1000)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -155, No +135)

RAVENS AS A HOME FAVORITE

Baltimore is 1-1 SU/ATS in this role, defeating Cleveland and losing outright in OT against Chicago. The Ravens were 5-2 as a home favorite last season, covering the number on four occasions, which included the 38-6 romp over the Dolphins that provided their largest margin of victory last season.

DOLPHINS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG

Miami is a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS catching points on the road this season. The Dolphins survived the Chargers in L.A. in their season debut when Younghoe Koo missed a potential game-winning field goal and rallied from a 17-0 halftime deficit in Atlanta to beat the Falcons as a 14-point 'dog. The 'Phins went 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) in this role last season, including the Wild Card loss in Pittsburgh.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 9 currently has the Ravens as a 4.5-point road underdog at Tennessee. The Dolphins will be back on a national stage, hosting the Raiders in a huge AFC clash on Sunday night football. Oakland is listed as a 1-point road favorite.

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

Thursday's NFL Best Bet

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

Odds: Baltimore (-3); Total 37

After three straight weeks of having some highly anticipated TNF games to begin the new week – New England/Tampa Week 5, Philadelphia/Carolina Week 6, and Kansas City/Oakland in Week 7 – it looks like Week 8 is back classified under one of those TNF games that could end up being extremely painful to watch.

Miami and Baltimore have been among the league's worst offenses all year long, and Baltimore is coming off a game where they didn't score a TD until the final seconds of garbage time. Will these two teams be able to put some points up on the board on a short week?

Baltimore and Miami both rank in the bottom five of the league in adjusted net yards per play and both average fewer then 18 points per game on average. However, both teams have put up 20 or more points in two of their last three games, with Miami's offense being the most impressive last week in their fourth quarter comeback against the New York Jets.

Miami's 17-point outburst in the final frame was led by backup QB Matt Moore as he came in for a injured Jay Cutler who will once again be in street clothes this week. Moore was a guy this Dolphins organization didn't fully believe could handle the load of being a 16-game starter this year – hence the decision to pull Cutler out of retirement – but he actually may be the one more suited to run this Dolphins offense given his time spent in the system. We saw that in relief last Sunday, and Dolphins fans are hoping to see more of the same on a short week on Thursday night.

Baltimore's offensive woes are more because the status quo really isn't working anymore, as QB Joe Flacco and his huge contract are becoming more and more of a burden to the organization. Flacco's 5 TD passes to his 8 INT's have really put this Ravens team behind the 8-ball at various times this year, and his 5.31 yards per attempt is good for last in the entire league of qualifying QB's.

If Baltimore has any ideas of seriously competing in the AFC North this year, Flacco's going to have to step up his play in a big way. Whether that's taking more shots downfield or reading defensive coverages better, Baltimore better find some answers in a hurry.

Things aren't likely to drastically change on a short week for the Ravens, but Miami's new-look attack with Matt Moore at the controls may force the Ravens to try. Moore's basically playing for his job at the moment, and should he be the guy that gets the Dolphins own offense out of the misery it's been all year, Cutler may end up being on the sideline even when he returns.

Last week's fourth quarter deficit did dictate Moore throw the ball more, but it was clear he had a good connection with his receivers and I expect that to continue this week. With Baltimore's defense being last against the run (145.3 yards allowed per game) a guy like RB Jay Ajayi could be in store for a huge day in this one and his success will open up things for Moore and Miami's aerial attack.

With this game having the common belief that it will be a boring, ugly TNF game with two bad offenses on a short week, I believe bucking that prevailing notion could prove to be how you cash a ticket here. This total of 37 is the lowest on the board for Week 8 and just like the previous two TNF games, I do believe we see this game sail 'over' the number. Both sides are aware of how putrid they've been on offense this year, and this national spotlight game is a chance for both to dispel those ideas to an extent.

Miami's first 'over' of the year came in last week's comeback win, but they are 9-4 O/U dating back to last year when coming off an outright victory, and 5-2 O/U after scoring 30+ points. Meanwhile, Baltimore is on a 4-1 O/U run after failing to cover the spread, and despite all their offensive woes, are still on a 4-1 O/U run this year entering Week 8. Turnovers, whether for or against, have been a big part of Baltimore games all year, and getting or giving up short fields is always something an 'over' bettor prefers.

So while the majority of bettors will see this matchup, look at the YTD stats for both offenses and conclude that these two teams will struggle to even reach 30 points on TNF, I'm taking the contrarian stance here and looking for this low total to actually be surpassed relatively easily. I've always liked to take the approach of playing 'overs' in games involving two bad offenses and 'unders' in games involving two high-powered offenses because their is inherent value built into those plays based on the lines and the common perception.

This game definitely falls into the former, and with Baltimore is 2-0 O/U in non-division AFC games already this year, and I believe they make it three in a row this week with both teams scoring in the 20's.

Best Bet: Over 37

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

CFB Knowledge

Toledo won its last three games, by 5-10-27 points; they’re 2-1 on road, winning by 13 at Nevada, 20 at Central Michigan. Rockets are 2-0 as road favorites this year, since ’15, they’re 6-1 as road faves. Ball State lost its last four games; they were outscored 142-15 in their last three losses. Since 2007, Cardinals are 4-11 as a home underdog. Toledo won its last three games with Ball State, by 18-14-11 points; Rockets won three of last four visits to Muncie, winning by 14-17-7. Three of last four Cardinal games went over total.

South Alabama won its last two games, by 10-11 points; in their 5th year as a I-A program, Jaguars are 4-2 vs spread as road favorites. Georgia State won three of its last four games; they’re 0-2 SU at home, with a loss to a I-AA team. Since ’14, State is 3-7-1 vs spread as a home underdog. South Alabama is 3-1 against Georgia State, winning by 3-3-21 points; Jaguars split their two visits here, winning 38-17, losing 24-10. Four of last five USA games stayed under the total. Sun Belt home underdogs are 3-5 vs spread this season.

Eastern Michigan lost its last five games, last four by total of 13 points (3-0-1 vs spread)- they lost in OT to rival WMU last week. Eagles are 4-0 vs spread on road this year; they gave up 633 rushing yards in last two games. Northern Illinois won its last three games after a 2-2 start; they are 6-4 in last 10 games as a home favorite, 0-1 this season. NIU won its last nine games with Eastern Michigan (7-2 vs spread); Eagles lost their last four visits to DeKalb by an average score of 44-15. Under is 6-1 in EMU games this season, 4-2 in NIU games.

Stanford won its last four games after road losses at USC/San Diego St; their last three games stayed under total. Cardinal is 17-10-1 as road favorite under Shaw, 0-1-1 this year. Oregon State already fired its coach; they’ve lost five games in row, but lost tough 36-33 game in their last game to Colorado, their first game with the interim coach. Stanford won its last seven games with Oregon State (5-1-1 vs spread); Cardinal won/covered their last three visits to Corvallis, winning by 18-8-25 points. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-4 vs spread this season.

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

TOLEDO (6 - 1) at BALL ST (2 - 5) - 10/26/2017, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 79-55 ATS (+18.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 1-1 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO is 2-0 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

S ALABAMA (3 - 4) at GEORGIA ST (3 - 3) - 10/26/2017, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
S ALABAMA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA ST is 2-0 against the spread versus S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA ST is 1-1 straight up against S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

E MICHIGAN (2 - 5) at N ILLINOIS (5 - 2) - 10/26/2017, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
E MICHIGAN is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 2-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

STANFORD (5 - 2) at OREGON ST (1 - 6) - 10/26/2017, 9:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON ST is 60-37 ATS (+19.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
OREGON ST is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
STANFORD is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
STANFORD is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON ST is 1-1 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 2-0 straight up against OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

TOLEDO @ BALL STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toledo's last 5 games when playing Ball State
Toledo is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ball State's last 5 games when playing Toledo
Ball State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toledo

EASTERN MICHIGAN @ NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Eastern Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Eastern Michigan's last 10 games
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Eastern Michigan

SOUTH ALABAMA @ GEORGIA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Alabama's last 6 games on the road
South Alabama is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Georgia State's last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Georgia State's last 24 games

STANFORD @ OREGON STATE
Stanford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oregon State
Stanford is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oregon State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oregon State's last 8 games when playing at home against Stanford
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon State's last 7 games

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

Tech Trends:

TOLEDO at BALL STATE...Toledo 11-4-1 last 16 vs. spread away from the Glass Bowl. Ball no covers last five TY and just 5-14 vs. spread last 19 at Muncie.
Toledo, based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA at GEORGIA STATE...GSU has covered last three vs. USA. Jags just 6-12 vs. spread since mid 2014 away from Mobile, though 2-1 vs. line away TY.
Slight to Georgia State, based on team and series trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...EMU continues to cover, 5-2 vs. line TY, now 15-4 last 19 on board! Ten straight covers away from Ypsilanti! Though no covers last two or four of last five vs. NIU. Huskies on 11-3-1 spread run since mid 2016.
Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.

STANFORD at OREGON STATE...Beavs have covered last two after dropping previous five vs. line to begin season, maybe rallying late vs. number like a year ago, though no Andersen anymore. Tree has covered last three trips to Corvallis and 5 of last 7 in series. Tree 0-3 vs. line as visitor TY but was 10-3 previous 13 in role.
Slight to Stanford, based on team and series trends.

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

NBA Knowledge

Not a lot to go on for the first 7-10 days, until these teams get some games under their belts. I’ll give you what relevant information I have:

Mavericks beat Grizzlies by 9 at home last night; they won six of last eight games with Memphis; over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Dallas is 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Tennessee. Mavs are 1-4 to start season (1-4 vs spread, over 3-2), losing by 16 at Houston in only road game. Memphis is 3-1 to start season (under 3-1), with home wins over Golden State/New Orleans.

Celtics won six of last nine games with Milwaukee; they lost by 8 at home to Bucks last week. Boston is 3-1 vs spread in last four visits here. Over is 7-2-1 in last ten series games. Celtics won their last two games after an 0-2 start (under 3-1)- they split pair of road games. Bucks won three of first four games (over 3-1); they’re 1-1-1 vs spread at home this month.

Hawks won seven of last eight games with Chicago (7-1 vs spread); over is 3-1 in last four series games. Atlanta is 4-2 vs spread in last six visits to Windy City. Hawks lost their last three games by 18-12-11 points (under 2-0-1); they still haven’t played at home. Chicago lost its first three games, 17-10-7 points (over 2-1). Bulls lost by 10 the Spurs in their only home game.

Clippers won last three games with Portland, covered three of last four; they’re 1-3 in last four visits here (2-2 vs spread). Over is 4-1 in last five series games. Clippers are 3-0 SU/ATS to start season (under 3-0); this is their first true road game (played Lakers in “road” game). Portland won three of first four games (under 3-1); they beat Pelicans by 10 in their home opener.

Pelicans won seven of last nine games with Sacramento; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Last three series games stayed under. New Orleans lost three of first four games (over 2-2); favorites covered all three of their road games (1-2). Kings lost three of first four games (under 3-1); they lost by 5 to Houston in their only home game.

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

NBA Long Sheet

DALLAS (1 - 4) at MEMPHIS (3 - 1) - 10/26/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 380-313 ATS (+35.7 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 482-406 ATS (+35.4 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 157-122 ATS (+22.8 Units) in road games in the first half of the season since 1996.
DALLAS is 128-95 ATS (+23.5 Units) in road games vs. division opponents since 1996.
DALLAS is 265-217 ATS (+26.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-3 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 6-3 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

____________________________________________________________

BOSTON (2 - 2) at MILWAUKEE (3 - 1) - 10/26/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 253-207 ATS (+25.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 426-512 ATS (-137.2 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=98 points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 4-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-3 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

____________________________________________________________

ATLANTA (1 - 3) at CHICAGO (0 - 3) - 10/26/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 152-117 ATS (+23.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
CHICAGO is 258-314 ATS (-87.4 Units) in the first half of the season since 1996.
CHICAGO is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 7-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

____________________________________________________________

LA CLIPPERS (3 - 0) at PORTLAND (3 - 1) - 10/26/2017, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 88-119 ATS (-42.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 67-43 ATS (+19.7 Units) in road games after allowing 85 points or less since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 7-6 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 8-5 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

____________________________________________________________

NEW ORLEANS (1 - 3) at SACRAMENTO (1 - 3) - 10/26/2017, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=98 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-2 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 5-2 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Pesos · Oct 26, 2017

StatFox Super Situations

ATLANTA at CHICAGO
Play Under - Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 after playing 3 consecutive road games, playing with 2 days rest 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

ATLANTA at CHICAGO
Play On - Any team vs the money line (CHICAGO) after 1 or more consecutive losses, first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight ATS losses 57-32 since 1997 ( 64.0% | 30.8 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.2 units )

LA CLIPPERS at PORTLAND
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 105 after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )