Thursday 09/20/2018 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

[bmd1803]

Preview: Jets at Browns


The Cleveland Browns find themselves in an unfamiliar place after continually discovering painful - and often creative - ways to escape without a victory dating to the 2016 season. The beleaguered Browns, who are winless in their last 19 games (0-18-1), find themselves as the favored team at home for the first time since 2015 heading into Thursday's game against the New York Jets.

"Our players are not going to quit. ... Our guys have the grit and toughness. What we have to do is find a way to win," Cleveland coach Hue Jackson said on the heels of Zane Gonzalez misfiring on his second field-goal attempt and fourth overall in the waning seconds of Sunday's 21-18 setback at New Orleans. Gonzalez was given the boot in favor of former Miami castoff Greg Joseph on Monday before the Browns traded troubled wide receiver Josh Gordon to New England for a fifth-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. While top overall selection Baker Mayfield remains on the bench in Cleveland, No. 3 pick Sam Darnold became the youngest NFL player to eclipse 300 yards in a game in Sunday's 20-12 loss to the Dolphins. Coach Todd Bowles believes his team is in for a stern test with the Browns, saying that: "They're definitely not an easy out. The two last games they lost went down to a nail-biter at the end."

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Browns -3. O/U: 39.5

ABOUT THE JETS (1-1): Quincy Enunwa has proven to be Darnold's most trusted target with 13 receptions for 155 yards and a touchdown. Former Browns wideout/quarterback Terrelle Pryor had four catches for 84 yards versus Lions, matching the total number of receptions of Robby Anderson over the first two games. As for the favorite/underdog status, Pryor downplayed any notion that the players are buying into it. "It means nothing to me," Pryor said. "It means nothing to Cleveland; it means nothing to the Jets. Paper is paper. There are so many teams that are underdogs and they're coming out and beating guys. It really doesn't matter."

ABOUT THE BROWNS (0-1-1): Tyrod Taylor nearly ended Cleveland's long and winding road of failure by connecting with rookie Antonio Callaway on a game-tying 47-yard touchdown with 1:16 remaining the fourth quarter before the Saints booted the go-ahead field goal under one minute later. "It's big-boy football, and that's what we expect out of (Callaway) to do. You're going to hear a lot more out of him this year," said fellow wideout Jarvis Landry, who has at least five receptions in 19 consecutive contests. The 25-year-old Landry has recorded 90-plus yards and a touchdown in three of his last five encounters with the Jets, including his last such meeting while playing for Miami on Oct. 22.

EXTRA POINTS

1. New York RB Isaiah Crowell, who spent four seasons in Cleveland, answered a 102-yard, two-touchdown performance in his team's 48-17 rout of Detroit on Sept. 10 by being held to just 35 yards on Sunday.

2. Browns RB Carlos Hyde, who has scored a touchdown in four straight games dating to last season, rushed for career-high 193 yards while reeling in a scoring strike in his only career meeting versus the Jets.

3. New York S Marcus Maye, who is not expected to play as he nurses a foot injury, recorded his first career interception in his team's 17-14 win over Cleveland last season.

PREDICTION: Jets 20, Browns 16

 

[bmd1803]

ATS Trends
N.Y. Jets

Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Jets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Jets are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
Jets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Cleveland

Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Browns are 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up loss.
Browns are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
Browns are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 vs. AFC.
Browns are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Browns are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Browns are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

OU Trends
N.Y. Jets

Under is 5-0 in Jets last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 vs. AFC.
Over is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-0 in Jets last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 7-2 in Jets last 9 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 16-5 in Jets last 21 games in Week 3.

Cleveland

Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games in Week 3.
Under is 6-1 in Browns last 7 Thursday games.
Under is 11-3 in Browns last 14 home games.
Under is 13-4 in Browns last 17 games on grass.
Over is 10-4 in Browns last 14 games in September.

Head to Head

Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Cleveland.

 

[bmd1803]

Opening Line Report - Week 3
Joe Williams

We're two weeks into the regular season, and we're starting to get a good idea about which teams are going to be contenders and which are going to be trash. We head into Week 3 with a few intriguing games on the NFL slate. The two combatants from Super Bowl LII, the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles, are looking to rebound after road losses in the Sunshine State. The Cleveland Browns also head into Thursday's game with the New York Jets as favorites despite the fact they're limping in on an 0-18-1 winless streak which extends 633 days and counting.

Thursday, Sept. 20

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 40)

The Browns opened as a field-goal favorite across the board at a majority of the books, while Treasure Island had slightly less faith in Cleveland, opening them as 2 1/2-point favorites, although that line was bet up to 3 1/2 by late afternoon on Monday. The Stratosphere was the lone Vegas book to open the Browns at 3 1/2, but that was quickly bet down to three points, getting in line with everyone else.

The Browns are 0-18-1 SU, including 0-1-1 so far this season, although they showed a lot of spunk in Week 1 by erasing a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to knot up the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-21, while losing by a whisker on the road against the New Orleans Saints 21-18 due to deficiencies in the kicking game. The last time the Browns tasted victory was back on Dec. 24, 2016. You have to go back to Dec. 13, 2015 when the Browns were actually favored at home, a streak of 19 straight. They topped the San Francisco 49ers that day by a 24-10 count as 2 1/2-point faves. So far this season Cleveland is 2-0 ATS, while the Jets are 1-1 ATS, including 1-0 SU/ATS on the road.

 

[bmd1803]

Hot & Not Report

Two weeks of the NFL campaign are in the books and it was good to see that last week's scenarios I pointed out in this piece proved to be good ones to follow again in Week 2.

Pro Football teams from the state of Florida are still perfect SU and ATS with the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Buccaneers all winning outright as underdogs in Week 2. Tampa and Jacksonville looked mighty impressive in knocking off the two Super Bowl participants from a year ago (Philly and New England), while the Dolphins managed to knock down the Sam Darnold/NY Jets hype train back a few stations. All three of these Florida teams are at home in Week 3 so it will be interesting to see if they can continue to cash tickets for bettors.

On the other side of things, the Cleveland Browns continued to be the Cleveland Browns as they keep finding new ways to lose in heartbreaking fashion. The 21-18 loss they suffered in New Orleans did snap that 0-9 ATS run that road teams were on coming off a tie the week prior, but NFL teams are still winless (0-10 SU) in that spot this century.

Oddly enough, we've got another team in that identical spot this week as the Green Bay Packers head on the road to face Washington after tying with the Vikings this week. The Packers have opened up as -3 road favorites for that game, but with a SU winless trend staring the Packers right in the face, it may be better to lean towards taking the points and possibly even Washington ML. Only time will tell.

I'm sticking with the NFL again this week as there are a few scenarios that could be used as supporting angles/evidence in breaking down the Week 3 board.

Let's get right to it:

Who's Hot

'Unders' in games featuring NFC East Teams – 1-7 combined O/U record in division

That 1-7 O/U record for NFC East teams is technically 1-6 with the Cowboys and Giants playing one another on SNF, but the sentiment remains the same; you just aren't seeing great offensive play from anyone in this division. The only 'over' in these games came in the Philly/Tampa game in Week 2 and the bulk of the work done there to cash the 'over' was done by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers.

And as small of a sample size as it is given that it's just two weeks, I'm not sure much will change as we go on either. Sure, Eagles fans were swear up and down to you that their team will be different when QB Carson Wentz returns, but I'll gladly take the wait and see approach there. See, because through two weeks of the season, the NFC East is the only division in football to not have at least one team score at least 40 points combined through two games.

Philadelphia is the closest with 39, but when every AFC Division has at least three teams who have scored 40 or more through two weeks, and the NFC South has all four teams fitting that description – the NFC North and West already have three of four and two of four respectively at 40 or more but Chicago and Seattle still have yet to play – offensive football definitely needs some work in the NFC East. However, on the same side of that coin and why the games featuring Washington, Dallas, NY Giants, and Philly have been great 'under' bets so far is because they've also been the division with some of the best defensive play overall.

Washington (27 total points allowed ) and Dallas (29 points allowed) are 2nd and 3rd in the league in that category through two full games (Rams lead the way with 13 total points allowed), and Philadelphia (39 total points allowed) and New York (40 points allowed) aren't too far behind. The average for AFC teams in that regard (AFC is only conference where all 16 teams have played twice) comes in 48.3 points total points allowed, so defense may be the story of the day this year in the NFC East.

Week 3 sees the Eagles hosting the Colts – and keep an eye on a possible Carson Wentz return (total of 47.5), the Giants in Houston (total of 41), Washington hosting Green Bay (total of 46), and Dallas in Seattle (no line yet). The two games with lines have already seen a bit of 'under' action so far with some bettors looking to get ahead of the curve, so if riding this hot trend is something you are looking to do, then it's probably better to invest sooner rather than later for those 'unders' in the Giants and Redskins games.

Who's Not

NFL Teams ATS after scoring 40+ points – 1-3 ATS this year; 28-36 ATS since start of 2015 season

With about a handful of teams scoring 40+ in Week 1 this year it got me thinking about a trend I prefer to use in the NFL playoffs and tracking how it does in the regular season. That would be known as the “Fade 40” club as you want to be betting against teams the following week after scoring 40-plus (not including bye weeks). Week 1 saw Baltimore (47 points), Tampa Bay (48 points), New Orleans (40 points), and the New York Jets (48 points) all gain admission to this club, with only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaving with a smile on their face after beating Philadelphia. Neither of the other three teams never even really came close to covering their respective numbers as sustaining that high level of offense – especially this early in the season – is extremely difficult.

Speaking of early on in seasons, this trend through Weeks 2 through 5 the past three years has produced a 15-10 ATS record fading those 40+ point scoring teams. Often times these 40-point performances are nothing more than the outlier and simply a day where everything went right which is why fading said teams tends to make sense, that and these teams also get a point spread boost given their offensive explosion the week prior. Add in the hugely positive perception boost from the majority of the betting public as many tend to handicap on what they've seen last, and it's easy to see why fading these teams has been profitable; You have an inflated line on a team that's in store for a steep regression after a spectacular week of play.

Well, Week 3 only brings us one candidate (pending Seattle/Chicago) as the Kansas City Chiefs were the only NFL team to hit the 40-point mark in Week 2. Given the offensive show the Chiefs have put on through two weeks now (they scored 38 in Week 1), the Chiefs stock is near an all-time high at the moment with QB Patrick Mahomes being the talk of the league right now.

San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo must remember how it feels to be that guy after the way he closed the 2017 regular season down, and it's he and his teammates who roll into Kansas City this week to face the Chiefs in Kansas City's home opener. The point spread there currently sits at KC -6, having already been bumped from a -5 open, and I'm sure as the week goes on, and more and more flattering stories about Mahomes and the Chiefs pop up in the mainstream media, this number will only climb. But history's on the 49ers side here, Chiefs home opener be damned, so you'll see me patiently waiting to grab as many points with San Francisco this week.

 

[bmd1803]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 20

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NY JETS (1 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1 - 1) - 9/20/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[bmd1803]

NFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 20

New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
NY Jets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 6-18-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 14 games at home
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

 

[bmd1803]

NFL


Week 3


Thursday
Jets (1-1) @ Browns (0-1-1)— Hue Jackson is 1-32-1 as coach of the Browns; they’re 0-2 as a favorite under his watch, losing to Colts/Jets as favorites LY- Browns are 0-5 vs spread under Jackson in games with spread of 3 or less points. Over last decade, Cleveland is 8-18-2 when a home favorite. Under Bowles, Jets are 5-7-3 as road underdogs, 9-11-2 in games with spread of 3 or less. Jets won last five series games, last two 31-28/17-14; they’re 3-1 vs Browns here, with only loss in 2006. Browns signed new kicker after last guy missed 2 FG’s, 2 PAT’s in Superdome LW; Cleveland is 0-1-1 despite a +6 turnover ratio. Jets outgained their first two opponents, but have turned ball over five times, scored only 13 points in six red zone drives.

 

[bmd1803]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Thursday, September 20

NY Jets @ Cleveland

Game 301-302
September 20, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
126.046
Cleveland
130.903
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 5
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 3
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-3); Under

 

[bmd1803]

Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 20

N.Y. JETS at CLEVELAND (NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Browns SU winless streak at 19 one. Jets have won 3-point decisions in Cleveland the past two seasons. Cleve was “under’ 7-1 last 8 at home prior to opener, which depending upon when bet could have been “under” as well.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jets and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

 

[bmd1803]

Preview: Tulsa at Temple


Temple showed signs of life its last time out and can keep the momentum going Thursday night, when it hosts Tulsa in the American Athletic Conference opener for both teams. The Owls opened their season with a pair of disappointing losses before upsetting Maryland last weekend.

Tulsa, meanwhile, won its first game of the year before dropping the last two, including a home loss to Arkansas State last weekend. The Golden Hurricane fell to the Owls, 43-22, in last season's meeting. Frank Nutile, who threw three touchdowns in that contest, missed Temple's last outing with an undisclosed injury and will be a game-time decision Thursday. If he cannot go, the Owls will once again turn to Anthony Russo, who passed for 228 yards and a score in the 35-14 triumph at Maryland.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Temple -7.5

ABOUT TULSA (1-2, 0-0 AAC): The Golden Hurricane continue to get strong production out of Shamari Brooks, who ran for 5.8 yards per carry with 10 touchdowns a season ago. This season, the sophomore ran for two TDs in his first two games and rushed for 5.5 yards per carry in the third contest, leaving him three yards shy of 1,000 for his career. Luke Skipper has failed to throw for 200 yards in any of the first three games this season and has as many touchdowns as interceptions (seven) through the first 10 games of his collegiate career.

ABOUT TEMPLE (1-2, 0-0): Russo got plenty of help last weekend from Ryquell Armstead, who rushed for 118 yards but still has yet to find the end zone this season. The Owls' defense was outstanding against the Terps, holding Maryland to 195 yards and allowing only two scores - one on an interception return and another on a blocked punt. "I'm really proud of how they started fast, how they didn't let go of the rope and finished strong," said coach Geoff Collins, whose team limited the Terps to 1-of-12 third-down conversions.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Brooks had scored a touchdown in six straight games before last week.

2. Tulsa had 55 passing yards in last year's matchup.

3. Temple has scored a special teams touchdown in each of its three games.

PREDICTION: Temple 37, Tulsa 17

 

[bmd1803]

ATS Trends
Tulsa

Golden Hurricane are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Golden Hurricane are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.
Golden Hurricane are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss.
Golden Hurricane are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Golden Hurricane are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Golden Hurricane are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Temple

Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Owls are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Owls are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 conference games.
Owls are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Owls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
Owls are 39-14 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Owls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Owls are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Owls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Owls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

OU Trends
Tulsa

Under is 4-0 in Golden Hurricane last 4 road games.
Under is 4-0 in Golden Hurricane last 4 games on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Golden Hurricane last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-1 in Golden Hurricane last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-1 in Golden Hurricane last 6 conference games.
Over is 4-1 in Golden Hurricane last 5 Thursday games.
Under is 4-1 in Golden Hurricane last 5 games in September.
Under is 7-2 in Golden Hurricane last 9 games overall.
Under is 8-3 in Golden Hurricane last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 5-2 in Golden Hurricane last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Temple

Over is 4-0 in Owls last 4 conference games.
Under is 7-1 in Owls last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Under is 6-1 in Owls last 7 games in September.
Under is 4-1 in Owls last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 11-3 in Owls last 14 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 10-3 in Owls last 13 games on grass.
Under is 16-5 in Owls last 21 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Owls last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 9-3 in Owls last 12 games following a straight up win.
Under is 11-4 in Owls last 15 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Owls last 10 home games.

Head to Head
No trends available.

 

[bmd1803]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 3 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 50-14
Against the Spread 26-36-2

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 45-19
Against the Spread 29-33-2

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 35-28-1

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up (neutral site) 1-0

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under (neutral site) 1-0

The largest underdogs to win straight up
BYU (+23.5, ML +1075) at Wisconsin, 24-21
Akron (+21, ML +900) at Northwestern, 39-34
Temple (+15.5, ML +550) at Maryland, 35-14
LSU (+10, ML +320) at Auburn, 22-21
Troy (+10, ML +300) at Nebraska, 24-19

The largest favorites to cover
Utah State (-47.5) vs. Tennessee Tech, 73-12
Western Michigan (-46.5) vs. Delaware State, 68-0
Cincinnati (-43) vs. Alabama A&M, 63-7
Penn State (-35) vs. Kent State, 63-10
Georgia (-34.5) vs. Middle Tennessee, 49-7

Top 25 Notes

-- There were plenty of takers on Mississippi catching 23 points at home aginst top-ranked Alabama. It wasn't nearly enough, as the Crimson Tide steamrolled the Rebels by a 62-7 score for their third cover in as many outings. 'Bama has been favored by 23 or more points in every outing so far, but they haven't won by less than 37 so far. Alabama is averaging 56.7 points per game (PPG) through three outings with the 'over' going 3-0. ... It was the final game before Urban Meyer is allowed to come back, and Ohio State made sure he returned to a team that is 3-0 SU. The Buckeyes and TCU were locked in a defensive battle at Jerry World, but suddenly Ohio State erupted for 20 points in a four-minute span to pick up the victory. However, the Horned Frogs were able to hang on for the cover at most shops. ... Washington opened the conference slate with a hard-fought and hard-hitting 21-7 victory at Utah. The 'under' is a perfect 3-0 so far this season for the Huskies, as they have allowed an average of just 10.3 PPG.

-- Arizona State arrived in the Top 25 this week and they were subsequently shown the door by San Diego State, 28-21. The Sun Devils struggled on offense until the very end of the game, and their rushing defense struggled mightily. That's not a good sign with Washington looming next time out.

-- Boise State-Oklahoma State was one of the most underrated games on the Week 3 card. After a scoreless first quarter, things started to get away from the Broncos in a hurry, and the Cowboys were able to pick up their second consecutive cover, moving to 2-0 ATS against FBS foes this season. Boise slipped to 2-1 ATS after routing their first two foes.

-- Wisconsin last tasted defeat during the regular season on Oct. 15, 2016 against Ohio State. Not many thought the Badgers would be in danger of that streak coming to an end against Brigham Young, but the Cougars had other plans. The Badgers not only slipped to 0-3 ATS on the season, but they misfired on a field goal in the final minute to lost 24-21 at Camp Randall, making no one want to jump around.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Duke continues to play well, and they notched another road victory at Baylor, 40-27 to move to 3-0 SU/ATS. ... Georgia Tech headed to Pittsburgh and it was a rough road trip. The Panthers were routed last week, while the Yellow Jackets also suffered defeat. Someone had to bounce back, and it was the Panthers picking up a 24-19 win to drop the Ramblin' Wreck to 0-3 ATS. ... Clemson held on for a 38-7 win against Georgia Southern, ambling through a home outing against a non-Power 5 team. They had a bit of a hangover after their impressive 28-26 nailbiter at Texas A&M. The games wasn't particularly close, but it was the Eagles coming away with another cover to go 3-0 ATS with the 'under' also 3-0. ... Syracuse-Florida State was expected to be a close game, as the Orange were installed as three-point underdogs at home. It didn't turn out that way, as 'Cuse routed FSU 30-7 to give Willie Taggart another lose. Things aren't exactly going to plan under the new regime, as Florida State is 0-3 ATS so far.

-- Indiana is flying a bit under the radar, but they moved to a perfect 3-0 SU with a 38-10 win over in-state rival Ball State. The Hoosiers picked up their first cover of the season in three tries, while the 'under' connected for the second straight outing, both at home. ... Minnesota earned a third straight win and cover by whitewashing Miami (Ohio) by a 26-3 score. The Golden Gophers have allowed just 9.0 PPG through three games, but things will get a lot more difficult once conference play begins. ... Nebraska joined Wisconsin in the loser's lounge with a disappointing 24-19 setback against Troy. The Cornhuskers are 0-2 with both losses at home for the first time since 1947.

-- Kansas won against Rutgers 55-14, as they have earned back-to-back wins against FBS opponents for the first time since the 2009 season. It makes their opening game setback against FCS Nicholls State even that much more surprising. ... Texas Tech racked up a 63-49 shootout over Houston, as the Red Raiders moved to 3-0 on the 'over' this season. Defense is going to be an issue for this team, as they have allowed 48.0 PPG in two games against FBS foes. ... Texas bounced back with an impressive 37-14 win over USC, a team suddenly in freefall and unable to score on offense. The Longhorns earned their first cover in emphatic fashion and the defense allowed a season-low 14 points. Texas won for the 900th time in school history, joining Ohio State and Michigan as the only FBS schools in the club.

-- It's been a long time since UCLA struggled this badly, and an 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS start isn't exactly what the Bruins faithful had in mind when Chip Kelly was hired. But Fresno State came into the Rose Bowl and dropped the Bruins by a 38-14 score. Not only is it hard to figure a path to bowl eligibility, it's hard to see where UCLA is going to get a win anytime soon. ... Arizona doubled up FCS Southern Utah with a 62-31, and for the first time QB Khalil Tate looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate. That ship might have already sailed, but the Wildcats served notice that they're still a dangerous offense. They earned their first cover in three tries.

-- Tennessee did a good job on defense, shutting out UTEP by a 24-0 count. However, the offense still has a long way to go if they're going to be successful during the SEC gauntlet. ... Vanderbilt left a ton of points on the field in their 22-17 loss at Notre Dame, but they easily covered the 14-point number. The Commodores moved to a perfect 3-0 ATS while the 'under' is also 3-0 for Vandy. ... LSU tossed their hat into the championship contender ring by upending Auburn by a 22-21 score on the Plains. The Tigers are 2-0 ATS in two games away from Death Valley this season. ... Arkansas was dumped at home by North Texas of Conference USA, 44-17. The Razorbacks are 0-2 SU/ATS in two battles against FBS teams this season with the 'under' 2-0 in those games. ... Texas A&M improved to 3-0 ATS with a 48-10 win against Louisiana-Monroe.

Mid-Major Report

-- Temple went into Maryland and picked up an unexpected win after dropping their first two games of the season at home to FCS Villanova and Buffalo. ... Tulsa suffered a home loss against Arkansas State, as the Sun Belt picked up a big win. The 'under' has connected in each of the past two games for the Golden Hurricane. ... Memphis took apart Georgia State, 59-22, picking up their second win, cover and 'over' result in as many outings at the Liberty Bowl. ... Houston is averaging 47.7 PPG through three games, but they needed much more in their 63-49 loss in Lubbock against the Red Raiders. The Cougars slipped to 1-2 ATS.

-- Alabama-Birmingham picked up a nice win as 3 1/2-point underdogs at home against Tulane, 31-24. The Blazers need to tighten up on defense if they're to have further success, as they're allowing 35.5 PPG through two games against FBS foes. ... Middle Tennessee won't be applying for SEC admission anytime soon. They were blasted by Georgia by a 49-7 count, slipping to 0-2 SU/ATS in two games against SEC opponents. ... Western Kentucky suffered a loss to FCS Maine last week, 31-28. They bounced back with a 20-17 cover at Louisville, earning their second cover in two tries against Power 5 teams this season.

-- Northern Illinois picked up a 24-16 win against Central Michigan, failing to cover for the second time in three tries while the 'under' connected for the third time in as many outings. ... Akron made history with their win at Northwestern, earning their first win against a Big Ten opponent since 1894 when the institution was called Buchtel College. The Zips have fired out to a 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS start. ... Bowling Green topped FCS Eastern Kentucky in a surprising 42-35 shootout, failing to cover for a second straight game. ... Ohio failed to cover at Virginia, as the Bobcats slipped to 0-2 ATS on the season.

-- Hawaii made the cross-country trek to Army and the travel apparently caught up to them, as the Black Knights beat them 28-21 for a push at most shops. The Warriors also failed to hit the 'over' for the first time in four tries. ... New Mexico-New Mexico State was a high-scoring battle, with the Lobos posting a 42-25 win. The Lobos dropped the Aggies to 0-4 ATS, while the 'over' has connected in each of their past three outings.

Bad Beats

-- It wasn't a textbook bad beat, but 'over' (59.5) bettors had to feel good with 49 points on the board at halftime of Middle Tennessee-Georgia. The Bulldogs posted seven in the third, and there were 56 points with a full quarter to go. Under bettors lucked out with a scoreless fourth quarter.

-- 'Over' bettors in BYU-Wisconsin (52) were pleased near the end of regulation, as the Badgers were about to boot a game-tying field goal to force overtime. Oops. Wisconsin lost, and so did 'over' bettors.

-- Illinois appeared to be on the way to a win against South Florida, but the Illini folded in the fourth quarter. The Illini led 19-7 heading into the fourth as 14-point underdogs, but the Bulls outscored them 18-0 to come away with a 25-19 victory.

-- 'Over' (71) bettors were liking the way Bama-Ole Miss was shaping up, as there were 56 points on the board at halftime, and 66 points through three quarters. The Tide could only muster up a field goal in the final stanza, as the 'under' held out.

-- The 'under' (68) was looking good in Oregon State-Nevada left, with just 51 points on the board through three quarters after a scoreless third. Oregon State dashed their hopes with a touchdown with 4:40 to go, pushing the total over the finish line late.

 

[bmd1803]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TULSA (1 - 2) at TEMPLE (1 - 2) - 9/20/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEMPLE is 1-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 1-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[bmd1803]

NCAAF

Week 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 20

Tulsa @ Temple
Tulsa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulsa's last 5 games on the road
Tulsa is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games on the road

Temple
Temple is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
Temple is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games

 

[bmd1803]

Tech Trends - Week 4
September 18, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, SEPT. 20

Matchup Skinny Edge

TULSA at TEMPLE...Tulsa 10-3 as visiting dog since 2015. Collins 0-5 as home chalk for Owls.
Tulsa, based on team trends.

 

[bmd1803]

THE BROWNS ARE FAVORED!

For the first time since 2015, the Cleveland Browns are favored at home as the line is at -3 against the Jets for Thursday Night Football. It’s fun news for Browns fans but let’s look elsewhere for a safer bet instead of backing a team that hasn't won in 634 days.

The total has been set at 39.5 and it’s easy to see why it’s one of the lowest totals of the season. The Browns have been great defensively so far with five forced fumbles, seven sacks, and three interceptions against the high-flying offenses of the Steelers and Saints. Offensively, they grind it out with the run game and are averaging 270 rushing yards per game, fifth in the NFL. The Jets’ offensive line really struggled to protect Sam Darnold in Week 2 as Miami sacked him three times and hit him five times. Bettors should expect a defensive battle on Thursday Night and we’re recommending the Under 39.5.

 

[bmd1803]

BROWNS THINK THEY KNOW DARNOLD

One more for the Thursday nighter. The Browns did their due diligence on Darnold before electing to take Baker Mayfield with the top pick and they hope to use what they learned in the scouting process to their advantage. “We have an idea of who we’re playing — there’s no doubt,” Browns coach Hue Jackson said on Tuesday.

Darnold’s production has been completely related to game flow so far this season as he threw for just 198 yards after the Jets had a big lead in Week 1 and then exploded for 334 yards as he played from behind for all of Week 2. On Thursday, Darnold faces a Brown defense that held Drew Brees to 243 yards last week and forced Ben Roethlisberger into five turnovers in Week 1. Add in the fact that his O-line is a big concern and that he’s playing on a short week for the first time in his young career and we’re taking the Under on his total passing yards.

 

[bmd1803]

There are eight NFL teams with perfect 2-0 ATS records to start the season. Here they are:

Bears 2-0
Bengals 2-0
Browns 2-0
Jaguars 2-0
Chiefs 2-0
Rams 2-0
Dolphins 2-0
Buccaneers 2-0


There are seven NFL teams with less-than-perfect 0-2 ATS records to start the season. Here they are:

Cardinals 0-2
Bills 0-2
Texans 0-2
Saints 0-2
Giants 0-2
Steelers 0-2
49ers 0-2

 

[bmd1803]

NCAAF

Week 4

Thursday
Temple (-3) won 43-22 at Tulsa LY, thanks to a +3 turnover ratio. Owls gave up 314 rushing yards in the win- they also beat Tulsa 35-24 (-14) in previous meeting in ’14. Tulsa is 0-2 vs I-A teams, giving up 455 rushing yards in the two games; they’re 10-3 as a road underdog under Montgomery, and 12-3 in last 15 games as conference road underdogs. Since beginning of last year, Temple is 0-4 as a home favorite. Owls upset Maryland LW, after losing first two games, to a I-AA team and to Buffalo at home.

 

[bmd1803]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 4

Thursday, September 20

Tulsa @ Temple

Game 303-304
September 20, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulsa
80.112
Temple
80.920
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Temple
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Temple
by 7 1/2
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tulsa
(+7 1/2); Under