In any case the season long Brad Penny rate of home runs allowed being almost the same as those posted by Papelbon and Ramirez is one of those meaningless stats that would not come into play when an intelligent handicapper works a Red Sox game. Completely irrevelent.
I won't even bother to get into the lucky or good discussion with you.
I won't even bother to get into the lucky or good discussion with you.
They won't gain any ground on the chasers but..
Wednesday night The Red Sox have defeated the Nationals 6-4 before 41,530, a Nationals Park record. Jonathan Papelbon retired the Nats in order in the 9th to earn the save. The game time was 2:58. Jon Lester improved to 6-6 after a very shaky start to the year.
Five of Boston's runs were scored on a three-run homer by suddenly dangerous again David Ortiz (#7) and a two-run homer by Captain Jason Varitek (#11).
John Smoltz makes his debut in a Red Sox uniform Thursday night starting for Boston on the road against the Nats' Jordan Zimmerman (2-3 .503 ERA). The game starts at 7:05PM EDT. Expect another huge crowd at Nationals Park..
wil.
Wednesday night The Red Sox have defeated the Nationals 6-4 before 41,530, a Nationals Park record. Jonathan Papelbon retired the Nats in order in the 9th to earn the save. The game time was 2:58. Jon Lester improved to 6-6 after a very shaky start to the year.
Five of Boston's runs were scored on a three-run homer by suddenly dangerous again David Ortiz (#7) and a two-run homer by Captain Jason Varitek (#11).
John Smoltz makes his debut in a Red Sox uniform Thursday night starting for Boston on the road against the Nats' Jordan Zimmerman (2-3 .503 ERA). The game starts at 7:05PM EDT. Expect another huge crowd at Nationals Park..
wil.
Getting Big Papi on track was much more important than Dice-K. Sox have plenty of pitchers to make up for Dice struggling, but a career hitter with the numbers Ortiz has is much harder to replace. If Papi really has turned a corner and stays on the pace he has set the last couple weeks, Yanks and Rays are in trouble
An intelligent handicapper would never see that Penny's ERA is much higher than the components would indicate? The intelligent handicapper must have missed out on his past few starts
Give me a pitcher who has an ERA of five with an BB/K rate and HR rate similar to a handful of pitchers with ERAs around two and I'll look to bet on the guy with the high ERA and against those with the low ERA every time. How is that unintelligent?
Because you are talking apples and oranges aka starters and relievers. Comparing starters in the BB/K and HR category is IMO more telling as to a starters potential effectiveness.
First thing you do is evaluate your starters using up to date information, to decide how much better the starter who is going for the favored team is than the one pitching for the dog (if at all better). That work has absolutely nothing to do with how they compare to relief pitchers that have pitched in around a third of the number of innings as full time starters have this time of year. Capping bullpens is another part of the process altogether, and for me comes later.
Key numbers necessary to evaluate a starting pitcher:
W L ERA G GS CG SHO INN H R ER HR HBP BB IBB SO BK WP Batting AVG VS. VS. LEFTHANDERS / VS. RIGHTHANDERS. Evaluate all the information you can using the following categories.
As Starter vs. opposing lineups. You can eliminate categories that are not in play such as games on turf or day games etc.
BA vs. Lefthanded Batter *
BA vs. Righthanded Batter *
SLG*
OBP*
Home
Away
Day
Night
Grass
Turf
RISP
RISP w 2 outs
Runners on Base
Bases Empty
Bases Loaded under all conditions
Late Inning Pressure
Key information that should be carefully compared to the opposing team's batting order.
The above research is just a start. For example the last three starts by each starter and the last three games by each teams bullpen need to be closely scrutinized.
Creating your own line is also an important factor.
Bottom line to properly handicap a baseball game involves a lot of work. Usually I eliminate prohibative favorites unless I want to consider betting the dog to save time. I know some bettors will lay huge juice but I refrain from that practice.
I am leaving a lot out in order to make my point. With prudent and time consuming evaluation a solid capper can pin down which hitters on the opposing team will most likely be the toughest outs.
FWIW -- I look for Reds righty Johnny Cueto to pitch well tonight as a pick-em in Toronto.
wil.
First thing you do is evaluate your starters using up to date information, to decide how much better the starter who is going for the favored team is than the one pitching for the dog (if at all better). That work has absolutely nothing to do with how they compare to relief pitchers that have pitched in around a third of the number of innings as full time starters have this time of year. Capping bullpens is another part of the process altogether, and for me comes later.
Key numbers necessary to evaluate a starting pitcher:
W L ERA G GS CG SHO INN H R ER HR HBP BB IBB SO BK WP Batting AVG VS. VS. LEFTHANDERS / VS. RIGHTHANDERS. Evaluate all the information you can using the following categories.
As Starter vs. opposing lineups. You can eliminate categories that are not in play such as games on turf or day games etc.
BA vs. Lefthanded Batter *
BA vs. Righthanded Batter *
SLG*
OBP*
Home
Away
Day
Night
Grass
Turf
RISP
RISP w 2 outs
Runners on Base
Bases Empty
Bases Loaded under all conditions
Late Inning Pressure
Key information that should be carefully compared to the opposing team's batting order.
The above research is just a start. For example the last three starts by each starter and the last three games by each teams bullpen need to be closely scrutinized.
Creating your own line is also an important factor.
Bottom line to properly handicap a baseball game involves a lot of work. Usually I eliminate prohibative favorites unless I want to consider betting the dog to save time. I know some bettors will lay huge juice but I refrain from that practice.
I am leaving a lot out in order to make my point. With prudent and time consuming evaluation a solid capper can pin down which hitters on the opposing team will most likely be the toughest outs.
FWIW -- I look for Reds righty Johnny Cueto to pitch well tonight as a pick-em in Toronto.
wil.
True. Just an example that two pitchers can be close, but if their ERAs (or some other stats) are far different the market might not see it that way
Exactly. And if the pitchers are close, yet the lines are set so heavily favoring one, look to bet the other side. Penny is a perfect example. With the exception of a couple starts in April, he has been pretty much the same pitcher every single time he has stepped on the mound, whether he has given up four runs or zero runs. If someone fails to see that, it is not the fault of the stats
I really don't see how there is a disagreement other than the insistence that if we take the wrong path the stats could somehow be at fault rather than us
What a game that was.
