The Sports Cruncher's Week #10 NCAA Football Thread

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Chomping at the bits
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"BTW, don't mistake me for thinking that individual game analysis is your bag, or even interesting to you."

Correct, I only look deeper into individual game match-ups when the numbers are on the fence of whether to make a bet or not. And I'm definitely not as knowledgeable on team histories, conference histories, coaching histories, recruiting histories etc. as your average school+conference fan. Football is the only major sport I actually enjoy watching, but I'm first and foremost a gambler/handicapper.

BTW, my total for the game is 57, and it wouldn't surprise me if the posted total is lower, as usually seems to be the case with Navy games. :)

"
You said your totals plays are better than your sides,how about your 2 unit sides? They also seem good ? Or am I missing something ?"

2 Unit sides are doing well this year, going 7-2. I haven't had any 2 unit totals yet, but last week both of the 1.5 unit totals won. Because my totals lines are always closer to the actual lines than my lines on sides are to the actual lines, my bets on totals tend to be flatter. Sometimes my lines on sides are 20+ points off the actual lines -- that will never happen on totals, where I've only be averaging one total more than 10 points off the actual total per week, I'd say.

 

Chomping at the bits
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Nothing like sitting down with your West coast morning coffee and seeing how much line value you've picked up from the early market action. :) Navy back down to +14.5 sure wish I would have waited and snagged a +17 on that one, lol. CONN back down to +12, too, so those two games I mentioned are correcting back down in the direction I'd thought they'd go.

Only region where I didn't pick up any more value was, of course, my West coast, aka the region I'm having the hardest time with this year, lol. UCLA all the way back down to -3.5 -- I'll probably have to buy up some more on them, now. FRES lost the 1 point they'd gained, SDSU bumped back up to the original, but USU crept closer to -3, where I think that line wants to be, at a minimum.

Off the top of my head (and smarting over lost wagers), I think that UCLA and Virginia are the two worst schools when it comes to converting the statistical advantages they possess in games into wins and covers. Maybe they are just the statistical outliers, or maybe they suffer from bad play-calling?
 

Chomping at the bits
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UCLA with a couple of injuries on the offensive line, looks like that single wager I put on them on a now-bad number is going to ride it out alone.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Adding for 3/5th Unit: TENN +8 @ SCAR

The stats show a very even match up here, with SCAR's only read advantage being home field. TENN backup QB did fine against ALA last Saturday, and may start even if regular QB Worley is good to go.
 

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been a while Crunch, great to see you are still crushing lines. I'm on a few of these games already, my numbers generally agree with almost all of your plays. BOL
 

Chomping at the bits
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been a while Crunch, great to see you are still crushing lines. I'm on a few of these games already, my numbers generally agree with almost all of your plays. BOL

Hey Jimmy, good to hear from you. I keep an eye out for your stuff at TSE. Did they do a Bowl contest again this past season? I was the inaugural champ, if you recall. :)
 

Chomping at the bits
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Tuesday morning and still picking up more line value, especially on the 2 unit plays (APP St. from -5.5 to -10.5, MTU +9 to +3.5, KSU -12.5 to -14). I'd said that MIA at -11 still had 2 units worth of value on them, and sure enough, the line is up to -17. Wisconsin is off the board because of the injury to RUTG QB Nova, but I bought two units at -11.

The only line that's really surprising me right now is PITT up to -3.5. I favor Duke by 6 in that game. The line has bounced up and down since opening, and now it's crossed the strongest of all numbers up to 3.5. Are there some key injuries I'm not aware of (I just use Don Best)? Or is the sentiment that this a "must win" game for PITT after the fumble debacle loss of last week? Duke is nothing special, but somehow they've been finding ways to win, for the most part.
 

Even DONKS win sometimes... Right?
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Great value, Crunch. Nice work. Been waiting on these totals, didn't they come out on Monday last week? What gives?
 

Chomping at the bits
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Because there was a Tuesday game last week they posted the week day totals on Monday, including some pretty soft lines. They got destroyed on the ARST/ULL Over. Might have made them gun shy, they should be releasing all of the week's totals sometime within the next 2 hours (usually).
 

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