So far I've made quite a few plays today based on opening line discrepancies, filtered through 2 or 3 other metrics as well. More plays than I thought I'd be making, that's for sure. Last week was the first week in the 3 I've posted where side plays were an overall loser. I'd said a couple of times last week how it was a very odd market week where big chalk road teams were being pounded. Overall they didn't do very well, though I didn't come out too bad on the strength of getting good opening numbers with ORE -16 and MSST -13. ALA and UCLA were both covering after the 1st quarter, only to piss it away down the stretch. AUB was never covering as their pass defense had a slightly below average game where SCAR cashed for touchdowns almost every trip deep in AUB territory. AUB had an incredible offensive game (my #1 rated offense), but it ended up not being enough as the big favorite.
I murdered the market last week, picking up 76.5 points on all plays made versus the closing #s, but it unfortunately didn't result in mass profits, up just 3.17 units for the week. Every now and then you're going to suffer more bad beats than give them, and yesterday was definitely that. I got a bit loose with 1/2 unit 2nd half plays later in the day, after an almost 2 hour power outage, lol, but it didn't cost me too much, as both 1 unit 2nd half plays hit. Still, I definitely got a bit spewy for 3 or 4 plays, I'd say, and stubborn on some others by betting the 2nd half the same as an original game bet that wasn't faring well, though honestly the stats were in favor of making those plays.
It was a classic cruncher week, as it turned out (3 unit losses on sides, 6 unit winner on totals), as totals have by far and away been my bread and butter over the years. If I'd blindly bet all of last week's totals that qualified with one particular metric I use, totals would have hit for 75% on 29 total plays, which is sick. I was on a lot of those, but I'll be looking more closely now at some borderline value plays that qualify with the metric.
I murdered the market last week, picking up 76.5 points on all plays made versus the closing #s, but it unfortunately didn't result in mass profits, up just 3.17 units for the week. Every now and then you're going to suffer more bad beats than give them, and yesterday was definitely that. I got a bit loose with 1/2 unit 2nd half plays later in the day, after an almost 2 hour power outage, lol, but it didn't cost me too much, as both 1 unit 2nd half plays hit. Still, I definitely got a bit spewy for 3 or 4 plays, I'd say, and stubborn on some others by betting the 2nd half the same as an original game bet that wasn't faring well, though honestly the stats were in favor of making those plays.
It was a classic cruncher week, as it turned out (3 unit losses on sides, 6 unit winner on totals), as totals have by far and away been my bread and butter over the years. If I'd blindly bet all of last week's totals that qualified with one particular metric I use, totals would have hit for 75% on 29 total plays, which is sick. I was on a lot of those, but I'll be looking more closely now at some borderline value plays that qualify with the metric.
2nd half plays not listed on the graphic, though they are counted for in the wins/losses and totals, etc. They were -2.85 for the day, not very good. I'd started off playing them pretty tight during the day, but like I mentioned, got too loose later on. I'm going to try and stick to the best ones from now on.
I have to say, I almost don't even care if your plays win or lose anymore because your ability to predict line movement is so fricking uncanny that it's been very fun to watch. It's great that it's football gambling blah blah blah but the fact that you can so routinely and near perfectly predict market movement is what's impressive here.
I did miss the ship on Navy this week, though, lol. Last week I liked Navy to cover against the market move, which they did. Hopefully they do it two weeks in a row. Maybe the fact that the Irish have an extra week to prepare for Navy's offense is a factor I'm not weighting enough. By the numbers these teams should put up fairly even numbers, in spite of ND's very good run defense.
UCONN is another game where I'm showing near identical statistical match-ups. When it first opened the number got bet down, but then it went back up when all the other books posted.
I dig your modesty! I live in Northern California and I've seen many San Jose State games this year because they're often televised locally due to proximity (SJSU is definitely not any of my alma maters, lol) and watching them last Saturday against Navy made me suddenly pay attention to the Midshipmen, especially their "QB" (forgive the sarcastic quotation marks) Keenan Reynolds whom I think holds the single season TD rushing mark for quarterbacks. Dude can scoot and the entire offense is built around making sure he gets the opportunity. Obviously ND rush D is great. It's also entirely unclear to me how Navy stops Golson. Yet, these seem to be the games that end up close in the end (cf., last year's matchup between these schools). Also, I think I'd take the over at anything less than 90! BTW, don't mistake me for thinking that individual game analysis is your bag, or even interesting to you. But I happen to look at this game after seeing Navy play and shit, my wife sure wasn't going to listen so I thought maybe the Internet might.
