larry ness
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Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers Sep 26 2007 10:10PM
Prediction: over
Reason: The Rockies are chasing franchise history tonight in LA, as they look to for their 10th consecutive victory in their game with the Dodgers. Colorado won its ninth straight game last night (9-7), matching a franchise record. The Rockies are now tied with Philadelphia and both are one game behind NL wild card leader San Diego with five games remaining. The Rockies have averaged 7.1 RPG during their streak (six of nine games have gone over) and have beaten the Dodgers five straight times, with the last four games sailing over. Let's look at tonight's starters. Derek Lowe of LA has allowed 30 hits and 20 ERs over his last five starts, posting a 6.84 ERA. In 12 career games vs Colorado, he's got a 5.35 ERA. That includes two starts in '07 in which he's allowed 16 hits and 10 ERs in 7.2 innings (11.74 ERA). Josh Fogg of the Rockies had a super three-game stretch from 8.27-9/9 in which he posted a 2.12 ERA but he's lasted just five innings in each of his last two starts (both no-decisions), allowing 13 hits, four walks and seven ERs (6.30 ERA). He's allowed 179 hits in 153 innings on the season, with a 5.06 ERA. In two starts vs LA this year, he's allowed 16 hits and nine ERs for a 6.94 ERA. Why won't this game go over this modest total? NL Total of the Week 15* Col/LA Over.
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Sep 26 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: I went over in Santana's last start and cashed and will come right back and go over again. The man who won two of the last three AL Cy Young awards, has struggled through a tough '07. The Twins went 27-7 (plus-$1,669) in his starts LY (best mark in MLB!) but are just 17-15 (minus-$931) in his starts in '07. He's allowed four ERs or more in FIVE of his last six starts, posting an ERA of 5.05 in that six-game stretch. This will be Santana's final start of the year, as he closes out his worst season as a full-time starter. He gave up three homers against Chicago in his last outing, which raised his AL-leading total to 33 HRs this year. The Tigers have been great all year vs lefties, going 27-15 (plus-$1,260) on the season and that includes a 12-5 mark at home, where they've averaged 6.3 RPG. Jair Jurrjens (3-1, 3.90 ERA) goes for Detroit as he tries for his fourth straight winning decision. He allowed four runs and six hits in just 2.1 innings in his last outing, a 5-4 win over Kansas City on Friday. The Tigers need to win-out and also need the Yanks to lose-out, to force a one-game playoff. That's not realistic, so I see the Tigers playing fairly "pressure-free." The low total reflects a Santana in "top-notch form," which he CLEARLY is not! AL Total of the Week 15* Min/Det Over.
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