2021 College Football National Championship Odds
Patrick Everson
Alabama opened -7.5 Friday night, and sharp money immediately showed up on Ohio State +7.5, with line moves in both directions since.
College football odds for the CFP national championship are up and drawing dollars. In Friday's CFP semifinals, top-seeded Alabama coasted against No. 4 Notre Dame, while No. 3 Ohio State hammered No. 2 Clemson, setting up an SEC-Big Ten championship game showdown.
Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on the College Football Playoff championship game opening line, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this Ohio State vs. Alabama showdown. Covers will update this action report with college football sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.
CFP National Championship Game Odds
CFP National Championship: Ohio State vs Alabama Odds
Opening line
Alabama -7.5, Over/Under 76.5
Why the line moved
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET MONDAY: Alabama was installed as a 7-point favorite at William Hill US, ticked to -8 by Saturday afternoon, then crept down to -7.5 Monday. The Crimson Tide are attracting 58 percent of spread tickets and 68 percent of spread money. "I’m not surprised by the movement. 'Bama seems to be on a different level than everyone," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "Ohio State mauled Clemson, so that should slow down the 'Bama train a little. We’re going to need the same exact thing as Alabama-Notre Dame, for Alabama to win and not cover, and for the game to go under the total." That total ticked from 76 to 75.5 Sunday morning and is still there tonight, with early action strongly favoring the Under, at 71 percent of tickets and 86 percent of money. "With the total this high in a game of this magnitude, the professionals are going to be betting the Under for sure," Bogdanovich said. “The masses will play it Over just because it’s Alabama's offense and Ohio State has the firepower to keep up. When push comes to shove, we’ll need the Under when this kicks off."
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: DraftKings opened Alabama a 7-point favorite late Friday night and at lunch hour Saturday went straight to -8, then backed up a tick to -7.5 Saturday night. The Crimson Tide are taking 71 percent of point-spread bets and 76 percent of point-spread money. The total opened at 76 and this morning dropped to 75 for literally five minutes, before returning to 76. Ticket count and money are both running about 2/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: About 24 hours after this game went up at The SuperBook, and with more than a week until kickoff, there's been a fair amount of line movement. Alabama opened -7.5 Friday night, and SuperBook executive director John Murray said sharp money immediately showed up on Ohio State +7.5, moving the line to -7.
Late Friday night, the line moved back to the opener of 'Bama -7.5, then slid back to -7 again this morning. However, by this afternoon, Alabama was up to -8.
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields got drilled in the ribs in the first half of the semifinal upset over Clemson, yet returned to lead the victory. Fields admitted postgame that he was hurting, but Murray said the move up on Alabama wasn't related to Fields' status for the Jan. 11 showdown.
"Just moving up with bets and the market," Murray said. "We definitely expect Fields to be out there."
The total opened at a hefty 76.5 and was down to 75.5 this morning.
"We took a sharp bet and a few public bets on Under 76.5 Friday night," SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said in explaining the early dip in the total. "But I can't see the total going down from now until the day of the game. The wiseguys would maybe fight over it at the start, but now that there is a market in place, in most situations like this, none of them will be rushing to bet it Under. They'll let the public drive it up from here."
No. 1 Alabama had little trouble dispatching No. 4 Notre Dame 31-14 in Friday's first College Football Playoff semifinal. Then, No. 3 Ohio State stunningly steamrolled No. 4 Clemson 49-28 in the second semifinal.
Well before the Ohio State-Clemson game ended, The SuperBook opened Alabama -7.5, with a total of 76.5, for the Jan. 11 CFP championship game.
"A respected guy took the Buckeyes +7.5 immediately, and we went to 7," SuperBook executive director John Murray said. "There wasn't much discussion really. We had already discussed the potential lines for the different matchups, and (Ohio State QB Justin) Fields looks like he is fine. No concerns there."
Fields took a huge hit in the second quarter and apparently suffered a rib injury, but he only missed one play before firing a TD pass to make it 28-14. Fields then threw another TD pass in the waning seconds of the half to make it 35-14, and he continued playing well in the second half.
The total didn't budge Friday night, but Murray is quite sure of what's coming over the next 10 days.
"Sharps will bet the Under, and the public will hammer the Over," Murray said.