The cnotes college football 2020-2021 season news,trends, picks !

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DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


12/23/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/19/2020 13-16-1 45.00% -2300 Detail
12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail


Totals...........70-64-3.....52.23%....-2.00
 

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Thursday’s 6-pack
Some interesting college football bowl spreads:

— Coastal Carolina (-7.5) vs Liberty
— Louisiana (-14) vs Texas-San Antonio
— Georgia State (-4) vs Western Kentucky
— Oklahoma State (-2) vs Miami
— Texas (-9.5) vs Colorado
— Wisconsin (-7) vs Wake Forest


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 324,905
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.



Quote of the Day
“Carson Wentz is being perhaps the worst teammate that you could possibly be ever.”
Former RB/current talk show host Tiki Barber


Thursday’s quiz
Coming into this season, who had the all-time career-best free-throw %age in the NBA?


Wednesday’s quiz
Last time a team won back-to-back NBA titles was 2016-2018, when Golden State won both years.


Tuesday’s quiz
In the baseball movie For Love of the Game, where Kevin Costner is a pitcher for the Tigers, John C. Reilly plays the Tigers’ catcher.


****************************


Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..


13) First things first today; happy 80th birthday to Dr Anthony Fauci, the scientist who has tried to educate all of us about COVID-19. Dr Fauci has been a bastion of knowledge during these hideous times; hope he has a very happy birthday.


12) Detroit Lions are hosting the Buccaneers Saturday, but interim coach Bevell and DC Cory Undlin are among Detroit coaches who are in isolation and unable to be at the Lions’ facility due to contact tracing after a player and coach tested positive for COVID-19 Tuesday.


No one has said who will call plays for Detroit if Bevell isn’t there; Lions also fired their special teams coach Monday, so the players might be coaching themselves Saturday.


11) College football coaching changes:
— Illinois hired former Wisconsin/Arkansas coach Bret Bielema.
— Auburn hired Boise State coach Bryan Harsin.
— UL-Monroe hired former Auburn/Akron coach Terry Bowden.
— Arizona hired Patriots’ QB coach Jedd Fisch.


10) Harsin probably left Boise in part because the Broncos aren’t happy in the Mountain West, and may want to move on to the AAC, at least on the football side. That would mean a lot of very long road trips, and they wouldn’t be a big fish in a small pond anymore (they’d lose more!!!)


9) For six years from 2004-10, Phoenix Suns averaged 55.3 wins/year, but they lost twice in the Western Conference final, once in NBA Finals; Phoenix hasn’t been in the NBA playoffs since then, averaging 30.6 wins/year.


Watching Phoenix play in their opener with Dallas, looks like the Suns have a chance to end their drought and make the playoffs this season.


8) Ohio State 80, Rutgers 68:
— Rutgers led this one 48-32 with 14:51 left in the game.
— Which means, over last 14:51, Buckeyes outscored Rutgers 48-20.
— Ohio State outscored Rutgers 22-10 on the foul line.


7) Illinois 98, Penn State 81:
— Penn State led 19-4 5:01 into this game.
— Illini has split its last six games; they were 23-28 on foul, PSU 4-7.
— Both teams shot 63%+ inside the arc; lot of easy baskets.


6) Northwestern 74, Indiana 67:
— Nothing is more 2020 than the Wildcats beating Michigan St/Indiana to start league play.
— Northwestern outscored Hoosiers 24-13 over last 8:57 of the game.
— Wildcats shot 67.7% inside the arc.


5) Celtics 122, Bucks 121:
— Antetokounmpo scored 35 points, but missed game-tying foul shot with 0:01 left.
— Milwaukee was +22 with Brook Lopez on floor (29:00), -23 with him on bench.
— Tatum/Brown combined for 63 points for Boston.


4) Cal-Bakersfield 79, Pepperdine 51:
— Waves are disappointing; they’ve already lost to three Big West teams.
— Bakersfield starts five seniors, is #2 experience team in country.
— Pepperdine star Ross scored only 10 points in 36:00.


3) Kings 124, Nuggets 122 OT
— Buddy Hield tipped in a missed layup at the buzzer for the win.
— Three Sacramento starters scored 20+ points.
— Jokic scored 29 points, had 15 rebounds, 14 assists for Denver.


2) Creighton 66, Xavier 61:
— Bluejays won 3rd straight game, last two by 2-5 points.
— Creighton was 14-20 on foul line, Musketeers 5-7.
— First loss for Xavier after an 8-0 start.


1) Was kind of sad to see that they’re taking Jack Murphy Stadium down in San Diego; Chargers/Padres played there for decades, there was a Super Bowl there. San Diego is the 8th biggest city in the country; hard to believe there isn’t an NFL team there.
 

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Thursday, December 24


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


HAWAII (4 - 4) vs. HOUSTON (3 - 4) - 12/24/2020, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAWAII is 93-124 ATS (-43.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
HAWAII is 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Thursday, December 24


Hawaii @ Houston
Hawaii
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games
Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games


Houston
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games




----------------------------------------------




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Bowl Games



Dec 24


New Mexico Bowl (Frisco, TX)

Hawai’i (4-4) vs Houston (3-4)
— Hawai’i allowed 31+ points in their losses; 23.5 ppg in wins.
— Rainbows allowed 208+ rushing yards in six of last seven games.
— Hawai’i has 6 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Rainbows have 125 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hawai’i’s soph QB has started 13 games.
— Rainbows are 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
— This is first time since 2008 Hawai’i is bowling on the mainland.
— Rainbows lost three of last five bowls, giving up 42.2 ppg.


— Houston allowed 30+ points in five of their seven games.
— Cougars have a minus-7 turnover ratio this season.
— Houston scored 37+ points in their wins; they’re 0-4 scoring less than 37.
— Cougars have 10 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Houston has 71 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Houston’s junior QB has started 16 games.
— Cougars are 3-1 ATS as a favorite this year.
— Houston is 3-2 in last five bowls, but lost 70-14 in last bowl, in ’18 vs Army.




-------------------------------------
 

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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


HAW at HOU 03:30 PM


HOU -8.0


U 59.0
 

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DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


12/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/23/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/19/2020 13-16-1 45.00% -2300 Detail
12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail


Totals...........71-65-3.....52.20%....-2.50
 

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Friday’s 6-pack
Some interesting college football bowl spreads:

— Iowa (-14.5) vs Missouri
— Florida (-3) vs Oklahoma
— West Virginia (-7) vs Army
— Tulsa (-2.5) vs Mississippi State
— San Jose State (-8.5) vs Ball State
— TCU (-5.5) vs Arkansas


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 328,481
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.



Quote of the Day
“I basically said the interest I would have is to do it right and everybody has their own version of what right is, for me, is complete control of my staff and all those things that go with it. I think maybe that was a hinderance. Once again, how far did we get down the path I won’t really say because I’m happy at UAB and this is where I’m at.”
UAB coach Bill Clark, on why Auburn didn’t hire him as their coach


Friday’s quiz
In the movie Draft Day, where Kevin Costner is GM of the Cleveland Browns, what actor plays the coach of the Browns?


Thursday’s quiz
Coming into this season, Stephen Curry had the all-time career-best free-throw %age in the NBA (90.6%)


Wednesday’s quiz
Last time a team won back-to-back NBA titles was 2016-2018, when Golden State won both years.


**************************


Friday’s Den: Merry Christmas, everyone…….


13) NFL playoffs were expanded to 14 teams this year, so only the #1 seed in each conference gets a bye; over the last seven years, of the 14 teams to make the Super Bowl, 10 were one-seeds and four were 2-seeds. Having the bye has obviously been an advantage.


12) Last five years, teams that had the first round by e were 12-7-1 ATS on the second weekend, which was their first playoff game that year.


11) Over last three years, underdogs are 8-2-1 ATS on first weekend of the playoffs; one game was pick ‘em.


10) 2012 Ravens are last Super Bowl champ that didn’t have a first round bye.


9) Underdogs are 12-7 ATS in last 19 Super Bowls, though favorites covered the last two.


8) Baseball doings:
— Pirates traded 1B Josh Bell to Washington, for two young pitchers.
— Detroit signed free agent pitcher Jose Urena.


7) Atlanta Hawks led Chicago 83-59 at halftime Wednesday; are the Hawks that good, or are the Bulls terrible? (With Billy Donovan coaching, they won’t be bad for very long).


6) Charlotte Hornets C Cody Zeller broke his left hand Thursday, is out 4-6 weeks.


5) Pitt Panthers’ best player, Justin Champagnie, is out 6-8 weeks hurting his knee in practice this week. Pitt is off to 5-2 start, 1-1 in ACC games.


4) Hawai’i 28, Houston 14:
— Rainbows picked off three passes, jumped out to a 21-0 lead.
— After Houston but the lead to 21-14, Rainbows ran a kick back for a TD, sealing the deal.
— This was Hawai’i’s first bowl on the mainland since the Sugar Bowl after the ’08 season.


3) Wednesday’s UCLA-Oregon basketball game was postponed, not because any players or coaches had COVID, but because of COVID-19 testing protocols for the refs.


2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t scored a first quarter point in their last four games; they signed QB Drew Stanton to their practice squad, replacing the departed Josh Rosen. Stanton was with Bruce Arians in Arizona; he knows the offense.


1) Way back when, when Steve Alford was a great college player at Indiana, I was convinced that someday, he would be coach of the Hoosiers. His dad was a high school coach in Indiana, it just made sense that someday, Steve Alford would run the Hoosiers, but it hasn’t happened.


This is a goofy idea, but Indiana/Nevada should trade coaches; Indiana is 26-33 under Archie Miller in conference games, not very good. Alford has gone from Missouri State to Iowa to New Mexico to UCLA to Nevada- he’s made four Sweet 16’s, but no Elite 8’s.


Alford is 25-15 at Nevada, while totally remaking the roster after Eric Musselman left; it would be good theater if got to come home and coach Indiana.
 

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MARSHALL vs. BUFFALO
Both had unbeaten runs ended late in 2020, UB against Ball State in MAC title game.
Bulls were 4-1 vs. line prior, and even with loss to Cards.
Lance Leipold 30-14-2 vs. spread since late 2016.
UB also 8-3-1 as dog since 2017, and Leipold 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls.
Bulls also on 18-7 “over” run since mid 2018.
Herd dropped 3 of last 4 vs. line TY, but had won seven bowls in a row SU (the last six of those for Doc Holliday) before getting blown out by UCF in Gasparilla Bowl LY.
Marshall also on 16-8 “over” run.


Tech Edge: “Over” and Buffalo, based on “totals” and team trends.




***************************


279MARSHALL -280 BUFFALO
MARSHALL is 14-3 ATS (10.7 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1992.




*********************************




Dec 25


Camellia Bowl (Montgomery, AL)
Marshall (7-2) vs Buffalo (5-1)

— Marshall lost last two games 20-0/22-13 after a 7-0 start.
— Thundering Herd hasn’t played away from home since October 17.
— Marshall has 9 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Thundering Herd have 126 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Marshall has a redshirt freshman QB with nine career starts.
— Thundering Herd is 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as an under dog (1-0 TY).
— Marshall is 12-3 in bowls; they lost 48-25 to UCF last year.


— Buffalo lost MAC title game 38-28 after a 5-0 regular season.
— Star RB Patterson (1,072 YR) got hurt last game, is expected to play here.
— Buffalo has 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Bulls have 82 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Buffalo has a soph QB with 11 career starts.
— Bulls are 19-9-1 ATS in last 29 games as a favorite.
— Buffalo is 1-3 in bowls; they beat Charlotte 31-9 LY.
 

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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 25
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



MRSH at BUFF 02:30 PM

MRSH +6.5


O 53.5
 

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DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/23/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/19/2020 13-16-1 45.00% -2300 Detail
12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail


Totals...........71-67-3.....51.44%....-13.50
 

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Saturday’s 6-pack
Six most experienced teams in college basketball this year:

6) Georgia Tech
5) Nicholls State
4) North Carolina Central
3) Detroit Mercy
2) Cal-Bakersfield
1) Eastern Illinois


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 329,792
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.



Quote of the Day
“This is a bad defense. The worst one I’ve ever had.”
Vikings’ coach Mike Zimmer


Saturday’s quiz
Stan Kroenke owns the Los Angeles Rams; which NBA team does he own?


Friday’s quiz
In the movie Draft Day, where Kevin Costner is GM of the Cleveland Browns, Denis Leary plays the coach of the Browns.


Thursday’s quiz
Coming into this season, Stephen Curry had the all-time career-best free-throw %age in the NBA (90.6%)


****************************


Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….


13) New Orleans 52, Minnesota 33
— Vikings lost four of last six games; they’ve been eliminated.
— Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in their last six games.
— Minnesota allowed 32.2 ppg in its last six games.
— Minnesota is 9-14-1 ATS in last 24 games as a road dog.


— New Orleans had 36 first downs, ran ball for 264 yards.
— Kamara is first player since 1929 to rush for six TD’s in a game.
— Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.
— New Orleans clinched NFC South title for 4th year in a row.


12) Troy Aikman was saying on TV how tackling in the NFL has gotten a lot worse, because teams don’t practice much in pads anymore, because of the collective bargaining agreement. Like any other skill, tackling takes practice.


11) Friday was the 50th anniversary of the Miami-Kansas City playoff game that went to double OT, the longest game in NFL history. Dolphins won 27-24; there were 16 future Hall of Famers in that game.


There were a total of 149 plays in that game; 61 passes, 87 runs, one sack. The game has changed a lot over the last fifty years.


10) Favorites covered five of the first seven college bowl games this fall; five of the seven games stayed under the total.


9) There are four unbeaten hoop teams in the SEC:
— Arkansas is 8-0, all home games, vs schedule #296.
— Missouri is 6-0, with 4 home games, vs schedule #54
— Tennessee is 6-0, all home games, vs schedule #244.
— Georgia is is 7-0, all home games, vs schedule #282.


Tough to project which of these teams will wind up the best, but Tennessee/Missouri would appear to be the favorites there- they’ve been tested more so far.


8) Wisconsin 85, Michigan State 76:
— Badgers start five seniors, only play eight guys. Their future is now.
— Wisconsin was 23-30 on line in this game, Spartans 14-16.


7) Western Carolina is off to a 7-2 start in basketball; coached my Mark Prosser, son of the late Wake Forest coach Skip Prosser, the Catamounts have already won four overtime games- their last three wins have all come in OT.


6) Purdue 73, Maryland 70:
— Terps never led in a game that was tied in last minute.
— Purdue was 10-22 on the arc; Maryland had only five turnovers.


5) it is a pleasure to listen to NBA games with Mark Jackson/Jeff Van Gundy as analysts; it is like eavesdropping on two friends talking ball. To me, that is the ultimate compliment when you’re talking about game analysts.


4) Nets 123, Celtics 95:
— Brooklyn won its first two games by 26-28 points.
— Steve Nash is going to think this coaching stuff is easy.


3) Golden State Warriors lost their first two games this season by 26-39 points, not a good sign that they’re any better than last year’s 15-50 disaster.


From 2013-19, Golden State averaged 62.2 wins a year. Now? Not so much.


2) Warriors have a player named Marquese Chriss; at age 23, he’s done a lot of moving:
2014-15: Pleasant Grove HS, Elk Grove, CA
2015-16: U of Washington, scored 13.7 ppg in 24.9 mpg.
2016-17: scored 9.2 ppg in all 82 games for the Phoenix Suns.
2017-18: scored 7.7 ppg in 77 games for the Suns.
2018-19: split season between Houston/Cleveland, scored 4.3 ppg in 11.6 mpg
2019-20: scored 9.3 ppg in 59 games for Golden State


At 6-foot-9, Chriss has a chance to eventually make himself a lot of money, but he needs to lock himself inside a gym and become a shooting threat. He has the ability; will he do the work?


1) Miami 111, New Orleans 98:
— Miami G Duncan Robinson scored 23 points in this game, made 7-13 3-pointers.


— Robinson started his college career a D-III Williams, before transferring to Michigan. The odds of a D-III player making it to the NBA are very, very long. He has an interesting story.


If Duncan Robinson can make a living in the NBA, Marquese Chriss should also be able to.
 

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LIBERTY vs. COASTAL CAROLINA
Teams were scheduled to meet on Dec. 5.
Coastal 8-2-1 vs. line this season, though Liberty enters with seven covers in a row.
Flames also 3-0 as dog in 2020, and 6-1 last seven getting points.


Tech Edge: Slight to Liberty, based on team trends.


UL-LAFAYETTE vs. UTSA
Cajuns covered last three in 2020 but that only got them to 5-5 vs. number this season.
ULL just 1-2 laying points away from Cajun Field TY, and 1-4 last five in role.
Also no covers last two years in bowls for Napier.
Roadrunners 4-2 as dog this season for Traylor, now 9-3 last 12 in role.
Cajuns “under” 7-3 in 2020, UTSA “under” 8-3 this season.


Tech Edge: UTSA and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY vs. GEORGIA STATE
Tops covered last two in 2020 but were 1-8-2 vs. line in preceding 11 games.
WKU 2-3-1 as dog TY and Helton was 6-2 in role LY.
GSU covered last three TY and was 3-1 vs. spread outside Atlanta.
Rematch of 2017 Cure Bowl won by GSU 27-17!




****************************




283LIBERTY -284 COASTAL CAROLINA
COASTAL CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) off a conference game in the current season.


285LA LAFAYETTE -286 UTSA
LA LAFAYETTE is 43-23 ATS (17.7 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.




****************************




Bowl Games


Dec 26


First Responder Bowl, Dallas

Louisiana (9-1) vs Texas-San Antonio (7-4)
— Louisiana won its last six games, scoring 38.2 ppg.
— ULL’s only loss was 30-27 at home to Coastal October 14.
— Cajuns won all six road games, also scoring 38.2 ppg.
— Cajuns have 7 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Louisiana has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cajuns have a senior QB with 28 career starts.
— Louisiana is 3-5 ATS as a favorite TY, 2-4 when laying double digits.
— In its history, ULL has won five of seven bowl games.


— UTSA coach Traylor tested positive for COVID, will likely miss this game.
— Roadrunners won their last three games, scoring 41.3 ppg.
— UTSA ran ball for 229+ yards in five of its seven wins.
— Roadrunners have 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— UTSA has 67 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Roadrunners have a junior QB with 15 career starts.
— UTSA ia 4-2 ATS when getting points this season.
— UTSA’s only previous bowl game was a 23-20 (+9) loss at New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl four years ago.


LendingTree Bowl, Mobile, AL
Western Kentucky (5-6) vs Georgia State (5-4)
— WKU won its last three games; they allowed 11.8 ppg last four games.
— Hilltoppers held five of last five opponents under 310 TY.
— Hilltoppers have 7 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— WKU has 102 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hilltoppers’ senior QB has started 18 games, 7 of them at Maryland.
— WKU is 2-3 ATS this year, in games with a single digit spread.
— Hilltoppers scored 38-37 points in last two games, only times this year they scored more than 24 points.
— WKU won four of its last five bowl games.


— Georgia State scored 31+ points in seven of nine games.
— Georgia State its 0-2 this season scoring fewer than 31.
— Panthers won three of their last four games.
— GSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Panthers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Georgia State’s redshirt freshman QB has started nine games.
— Panthers are 4-2 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— Georgia State lost two of its three bowls; they were underdog in all three.


— Georgia State (+6.5) upset WKU 27-17 in the Cure Bowl, three years ago.


Mortgage Cure Bowl, Orlando
Liberty (9-1) vs Coastal Carolina (11-0)
— Liberty’s only loss was 15-14 at NC State; they had a FG blocked at the end.
— Flames scored 30+ points in eight of ten games.
— Liberty beat two ACC teams (Syracuse/Virginia Tech).
— Flames have 5 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Liberty has 96 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Liberty’s junior QB is an Auburn transfer; he has started 10 games.
— Flames are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Liberty (+5) beat Georgia Southern 23-16 in this bowl LY, their first-ever bowl.


— Coastal won its last two games by total of nine points.
— Chanticleers ran ball for 236+ yards in four of last six games.
— Coastal has 8 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Chanticleers have 109 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Coastal’s freshman QB has 23 TD passes, two INTs.
— Chanticleers are 7-0 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— This is Coastal Carolina’s first-ever bowl game.


— These teams were supposed to play last month, but Liberty had COVID issues and the game cancelled.




*******************************




Bowl Week[/B]

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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Saturday, December 26


Western Kentucky @ Georgia State
Western Kentucky
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Western Kentucky's last 5 games
Western Kentucky is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Georgia State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Georgia State's last 10 games
Georgia State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games


Louisiana-Lafayette @ Texas-San Antonio
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 8 games
Texas-San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas-San Antonio's last 8 games
Texas-San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Liberty @ Coastal Carolina
Liberty
Liberty is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Liberty is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Coastal Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games
 

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



ULL at UTSA 03:30 PM
ULL -14.0
U 54.5



WKU at GSU 03:30 PM
GSU -3.5
U 49.5



LIB at CCU 07:30 PM
LIB +7.0
U 59.5
 

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DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


12/26/2020 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
12/25/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
12/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
12/23/2020 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
12/22/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/19/2020 13-16-1 45.00% -2300 Detail
12/18/2020 2-5-1 31.25% -1750
12/12/2020 11-11-1 50.00% -550 Detail
12/11/2020 6-0-0 100.00% +3000 Detail
12/10/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
12/06/2020 2-2-0 100.00% -1.00 Detail
12/05/2020 29-21-0 58.00% +29.50 Detail
12/03/2020 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50 Detail


Totals...........73-71-3.....50.69%....-25.50
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack
Six of the least-experienced teams in college basketball this year:

329) Auburn
327) Kentucky
326) Duke
324) Louisville
323) UMass
322) Cal-Irvine


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 331,732
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.



Quote of the Day
“Winning helps, and losing doesn’t.”
Bill Parcells


Sunday’s quiz
What veteran actor played the pitching coach in the baseball movie, Bull Durham?


Saturday’s quiz
Stan Kroenke owns the Los Angeles Rams; he also owns the NBA’s Denver Nuggets and the NHL’s Colorado Avalanche.


Friday’s quiz
In the movie Draft Day, where Kevin Costner is GM of the Cleveland Browns, Denis Leary plays the coach of the Browns.


*****************************


Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday


13) 49ers 20, @ Arizona 12:
— Chicago now holds its own playoff fate in its hands.
— Wilson ran for 183 yards for the 49ers, who averaged 7.6 yards/rush.
— Kittle caught four passes for 92 yards in his return from injury.
— Just third win in last dozen series games for San Francisco.


— Cardinals were 5-2 before their bye, are 3-5 since the bye.
— Arizona converted 4-16 third down plays, 4-6 fourth down plays.
— Redbirds are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as home favorites, 2-4 TY.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in 10 of its 15 games.


12) Buccaneers 47, Lions 7
— Detroit didn’t have most of its coaches; this was an embarrassment to the NFL, a totally non-competitive game.
— Plus, Detroit QB Stafford (ankle) went out in first quarter.
— Tampa Bay is in playoffs for first time since 2007.
— Detroit is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games.


11) Dolphins 26, Las Vegas 25:
— Fitzpatrick came off bench, was 9-13/182 passing to save their butts.
— There were five scores (22 points) in last 4:13 of this game.
— Dolphins won nine of their last 11 games.
— Dolphins covered nine of their last ten games.


— Raiders kicked FG with 0:19 left to take 25-23 lead.
— Las Vegas lost five of their last six games overall.
— Raiders lost six of their last eight home games this year.
— Over is 12-3 in Raider games this season.


10) All three of the Cleveland Browns’ top WR’s — Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones — are out of Sunday’s game with the Jets, due to contact tracing.


9) Louisville 62, Kentucky 59:
— Kentucky lost its last six games for first time since 1911.
— Wildcats were held to 64 or fewer points in six consecutive games, for first time since 1946.


8) Last week, John Calipari asked freshman Cam’Ron Fletcher to “take some time away from the team” after Fletcher pouted about his lack of playing time during a loss to North Carolina.


This is what is called a euphemism, which is defined as: “amild or indirect word or expression substituted for one considered to be too harsh or blunt when referring to something unpleasant or embarrassing.”


Truth is, they suspended the kid, but didn’t want to announce that.


7) Northwestern 71, Ohio State 70:
— Wildcats are 3-0 in the Big 14 for first time since 1968.
— Northwestern already has three top 40 wins.


6) Was looking thru some old stuff the other day: after the 1981 college football season, there were only 15 bowl games- the last ones were on January 1st. Times have changed.


5) Liberty 37, Coastal Carolina 34 OT:
— Coastal Carolina, Liberty have only been I-A programs for a combined seven years; they met here as ranked teams with a combined 20-1 record. Things change fast these days.
— Liberty led 31-19 in 4th quarter; Coastal tied it with 3:01 left.


4) Sunday is December 27, and the favorite in the MAAC, the Siena Saints, haven’t played a game yet. They’re supposed to play Monmouth January 3-4; we’ll see how that goes.


Lets look at how some teams are doing as far as team over/unders; these stats are prior to the games played Friday/Saturday:
3) Buffalo/Arizona went over their team total in 10 of their first 14 games this season; Cardinals weren’t so lucky Saturday, so now they’re 10-5 to the over.


2) Texans, Patriots, Giants, Eagles have been held under their total in nine of 14 games.


1) Steelers were 7-1-1 to the over in their first nine games, but stayed under their total in their last five, losing the last three.


Likewise, Seattle went over in seven of first eight games, but was held under their total in five of their last six games.
 

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Monday’s 6-pack
Interesting Week 17 NFL spreads:

— Washington @ Philadelphia (-1.5)
— Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-14)
— Green Bay (-4.5) @ Chicago
— Dallas (-2.5) @ NJ Giants
— Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (-7)
— Tennessee (-7) @ Houston


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 331,732
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.



Quote of the Day
“When I threw it, I didn’t see it. As you saw, my facemask got basically ripped off. I didn’t know he caught it. And everybody on the sideline was all excited. … It was pretty incredible.”
Ryan Fitzpatrick, on his pass Saturday that set up Miami’s game-winning FG


Late baseball trade: Tampa Bay is trading P Blake Snell to San Diego for prospects.


Monday’s quiz
Before moving to Tennessee, where did the Titans call home?


Sunday’s quiz
Robert Wuhl played the pitching coach in the baseball movie, Bull Durham.


Saturday’s quiz
Stan Kroenke owns the Los Angeles Rams; he also owns the NBA’s Denver Nuggets and the NHL’s Colorado Avalanche.


********************


Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday


Jets 23, Browns 16
— Browns were missing their three best WR’s (contact tracing)
— Cleveland in first half: 38 plays, 113 yards, 3 points.
— Cleveland was outrushed 131-45; they threw 53 passes, ran ball only 18 times.
— Browns are in a massive tie for AFC Wild Card; one of six teams will miss out.


— Jets won their second straight game after an 0-13 start.
— Jets are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
— Jets are 14-9-2 ATS in last 25 games as a home dog
— Jets have a +2 turnover ratio this season.


Cincinnati 37, Texans 31
— Second straight win for Cincinnati, scoring 27-37 points.
— QB Allen threw for 371 yards; he is now 2-5 as an NFL starter.
— Bengals in 2nd half: 35 plays, 305 yards, three TD’s, two FG’s.
— Bengals trailed at halftime only twice in last ten games.


— Texans lost last four games, giving up 31.5 ppg.
— Houston has zero takeaways in last three games (-7).
— Texans allowed 11 TD’s on opponents’ last 29 drives.
— Total yardage in game: 540-488, Cincinnati.


Steelers 28, Indianapolis 24
— Colts led 24-7 with 4:00 left in third quarter.
— Indy’s last five drives: 25 plays, 97 yards, zero points.
— Colts are 8-0 when they score 27+ points. 2-5 when they do not.
— Eight of their last 11 games went over the total.


— Pittsburgh snaps a 3-game losing streak, clinches AFC North title.
— Steelers’ last four drives: 24 plays, 232 yards, 21 points.
— Pittsburgh still ran for only 20 yards on 14 carries.
— Steelers won last seven series games, last three by total of 9 points.


Bears 41, Jacksonville 17
— Jaguars had ball in 10-10 game with 0:24 left in first half; they threw INT, Bears kicked FG, and the was the end of that.
— Chicago’s first four 2nd half drives: 30 plays, 204 yards, four TD’s.
— Bears are in playoffs if they beat Green Bay next week.
— Last five games, Chicago scored 33.0 ppg.


— Jaguars lost their last 14 games; they clinched 1st pick in 2021 draft.
— Jacksonville gave up 27+ points in 12 of their last 13 games.
— Jaguars in 2nd half: 24 plays, 84 yards, four first downs. No bueno.
— Jaguars are 8-11-2 ATS in last 21 games as a home dog.


Baltimore 27, NY Giants 13
— Giants lost last three games, outscored 73-26.
— Giants are 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS outside their division.
— Last four games, Giants were outscored 51-6 in first half.
— Despite all that, Giants win NFC East if they win and Eagles win next week.


— Baltimore won last four games, scoring 37 ppg.
— Baltimore scored 18 TD’s on their last 37 drives.
— Ravens won field position by 18 yards in this game.
— Right now, Baltimore is odd-man out in playoff logjam.


Kansas City 17, Falcons 14
— Atlanta missed 39-yard FG with 0:09 left.
— Falcons lost five of their last six games.
— Atlanta trailed in only two of last 10 games at halftime.
— Nine of their last 12 games stayed under the total.


— Chiefs won their last ten games, are 0-6-1 ATS in last seven.
— KC won its last seven games by 6 or fewer points, longest-such streak in NFL history.
— Chiefs scored game-winning TD with 1:55 left.
— Kansas City clinched #1-seed in AFC with win here.


Panthers 20, Washington 13
— Carolina won for only second time in last ten games.
— Panthers in second half: 29 plays, 79 yards, zero points.
— Carolina is 5-0 when they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-10 when they allow 23+.
— Panthers won field position in this game by 10 yards.


— QB Haskins was relieved by Heinicke, playing in NFL for first time in two years.
— Somehow, Washington still leads the NFC East.
— Washington outscored last seven opponents 130-37 in second half.
— Last six weeks, Washington allowed 16.2 ppg.


Seahawks 20, Rams 9
— Seattle wins AFC West fir fifth time under Pete Carroll.
— Seattle won five of its last six games overall.
— Last five games, Seahawks allowed 12.2 ppg.
— Last seven Seattle games stayed under the total.


— Down 13-6 in 3rd quarter, Rams had 1st-and-goal on 1-yard line, did not score.
— In their six losses, Rams were outscored 96-31 in first half.
— QB Goff dislocated his right thumb in 3rd quarter, finished the game.
— Ten of LA’s last 12 games stayed under the total.


Dallas 37, Eagles 17
— Eagles lost six of last seven games; they were 1-7 SU on road.
— Philly gained 413-422-477 yards in Hurts’ first three starts at QB.
— Last four games, Philly allowed 458.5 yards/game.
— Eagles are 4-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-10-1 if they allow more than 21.


— Dallas won its last three games, scoring 30-41-37 points.
— Dalton threw for 377 yards and three TD’s.
— Cowboys have ten takeaways in those three games (+9)
— Dallas was leading at halftime in six of last eight games.


LA Chargers 19, Denver 16
— Broncos had ball in red zone four times, scored only 10 points.
— Denver lost seven of their last nine games.
— Broncos turned ball over 21 times (-13) in their last ten games.
— Denver outgained the Chargers 396-316, but the red zone killed them.


— Badgley kicked 37-yard FG with 0:37 left for the win.
— Chargers won their last three games, all in last minute.
— Bolts won five of eight games in their new home.
— Four of last five Charger games stayed under the total.


Green Bay 40, Tennessee 14
— Tennessee was outgained 448-260 on a snowy night at Lambeau.
— Titans are still tied for first with Indy in AFC South.
— Tennessee gave up 234 rushing yards.
— Over is 10-3-1 in Titans’ last fourteen games.


— Green Bay won five in row, seven of last eight games.
— Packers scored 32.8 ppg in their last six games,
— Green Bay has converted 85-173 third down plays (49.1%)
— Davante Adams caught 11 passes for 142 yards, three TD’s.


2) Halftime score of the day: Mavericks 77, Clippers 27. Really. 77-27. Dallas wound up winning by 51.


1) College hoop scores of note:
— Providence 95, DePaul 90 (2OT)
— Cal-Irvine 75, UCSB 56
— Drake 81, Indiana State 63 (Drake is 10-0)
— Southern Illinois 63, Evansville 57


 

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Tuesday’s 6-pack
Interesting Week 17 NFL spreads:

— New Orleans (-6.5) @ Carolina
— NJ Jets @ New England (-3.5)
— Minnesota (-6.5) @ Detroit
— Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (-6.5)
— Baltimore (-11.5) @ Cincinnati
— Seattle (-4.5) @ San Francisco


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 334,116
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.



Quote of the Day
“He is going to stand on his beliefs and he’s certainly not going to be politically correct. To be honest, I’m certainly paying attention, but it doesn’t affect us at all. Whether or not he upset (people), Ohio State is going to be excited to play because it’s the Playoff, it’s a great opportunity. I mean, that’s what it’s all about. Just making the most of your opportunity. Certainly this year, everybody has worked hard, struggled, made a lot of sacrifice”
Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables, talking about Dabo Swinney voting Ohio State 11th in the last coaches’ poll


Tuesday’s quiz
When was the last time an NFL team went 0-16 for a season?


Monday’s quiz
Before moving to Tennessee, the Titans were the Houston Oilers.


Sunday’s quiz
Robert Wuhl played the pitching coach in the baseball movie, Bull Durham.


****************************


Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……


13) An ethical question to start off today: if you owned an NFL team (an average NFL team is worth $3B), and your team had the worst record in the league in December, would you to tell the coach to make sure the squad kept losing, to make sure you get the #1 pick in the draft?


Drafting Trevor Lawrence will sell a lot of tickets, when fans can go to games again; trading the first pick would bring a back a big haul of draft picks, which would fill a lot of holes that a bad team obviously has.


Lot of money at stake; these conversations would have been interesting to hear.


12) CBS analyst/former NFL QB Rich Gannon had the Bears-Jaguars game Sunday; he was very critical of the Jacksonville coaches as Chicago pulled ahead and routed the Jaguars, but it has to be a possibility that Doug Marrone was doing his job, making sure Jacksonville lost and clinched the #1 pick in the draft, which they did Sunday.


For the long-term success of the Jaguars, having that #1 pick is probably the best way for them to become good again.


11) An unnamed someone bet $500,000 on the Carolina Panthers’ money line Sunday; that person mustn’t think much of Dwayne Haskins as a quarterback. Panthers won 20-13, and the gambler had a big day, just in time, too. Washington released Haskins Monday.


It takes a lot of onions to wager $500,000 on the Panthers to win straight up- they had lost eight of their previous nine games.


10) Haskins was Washington first round draft pick LAST YEAR, the 15th pick in the draft, and they freakin’ cut him before his second year was over, making him the only QB in the last 20 years who was drafted in the first round, then cut before his second year was over.


Four 1st round QBs in the last twenty years were traded/cut after their second year in the NFL: Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, Josh Rosen and Brandon Weeden.


9) Mike Glennon played QB for Jacksonville Sunday; he’s had a nomadic career:
2009-12: NC State, started last two years, replacing Russell Wilson
2013-16: Tampa Bay- Was 5-13 as a starter, with 30 TD’s, 15 INTs
2017: Chicago- Went 1-3 as a starter, with 4 TD’s, 5 INT’s
2018: Arizona- Threw 21 passes in two relief stints.
2019: Oakland: Threw 10 passes in two relief stints.
2020: Jacksonville: 0-4 as a starter, with 5 TD’s, 5 INT’s


6-20 as a starter, still making seven figures a year ($1.19M this year)


8) Was a little odd Sunday, watching NFL games on the dish, and CBS get doing promos for the Ball State-San Jose State bowl game, but both teams have really good years. San Jose is actually undefeated; good for them!!!


7) Baseball stuff:
— Texas Rangers signed Japanese P Kohei Arihara.
— San Diego signed Korean IF Ha-seong Kim


6) RIP to Phil Niekro, the knuckleballer pitcher who won 318 games in a 24-year career, mostly for the Braves. Niekro pitched until he was 48 years old; he passed away this weekend. RIP, sir.


5) College hoop scores of note:
— Maryland 70, Wisconsin 64
— Drake 66, Indiana State 63 (Drake is 11-0)
— Evansville 84, Southern Illinois 72


4) In their 52-33 win over Minnesota Christmas Day, the Saints had 11 first downs on their first 14 plays, which is incredibly bad defense by the Vikings (and good offense by the Saints).


52 points the Saints scored are the most points the Vikings gave up since 1963, when the Cardinals drilled them 56-14.


3) Rams’ QB Jared Goff had his broken right thumb surgically repaired Monday, is out for this week’s game with Arizona. Backup QB John Wolford will get his first NFL start; he started for four years at Wake Forest, then played for the Arizona Hotshots in the AAF in 2018- they were 5-3 when the league stopped playing, and Wolford was leading the league in TD passes.


2) Minnesota Timberwolves’ star Karl-Anthony Towns dislocated his left wrist, will be evaluated every week. Timberwolves are obviously hoping for a short absence for their star.


Nets’ Spencer Dinwiddie partially tore his ACL, is out for the season.


1) Bills 38, New England 9
— Bills sweep New England for first time since 1999.
— Buffalo won eight of last eight games, covered last seven.
— Bills outscored last six opponents 128-61 in first half.
— Over is 11-4 in their games this season.


— New England lost last three games, are out of playoffs for first time since ‘08.
— Last three games, Patriots scored only one touchdown.
— Patriots converted only 9 of last 34 third down plays.
— This was Buffalo’s 7th win in last 42 series games.
 

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Tech Trends - Bowls
Bruce Marshall


The College Football Bowl Season kicks off on Monday, Dec. 21 and concludes on Saturday, Jan. 2 before the College Football Playoff championship on Monday, Jan. 11.


We've identified betting trends and angles for the final 27 bowl games and we also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.


OKLAHOMA STATE vs. MIAMI-Fl.
Canes slowed down late in season, just 2-5 last seven vs. line in 2020.
Though OSU only 1-5 last six vs. spread.
Cowboys also on 3-11 “under” run since late last season.
Gundy has also covered four straight bowls.
Meanwhile, Miami has lost and failed to cover 8 of last 9 bowls.


Tech Edge: Oklahoma State and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


COLORADO vs. TEXAS
Tom Herman 4-0 SU and vs. line in bowls (3-0 with Texas).
Buffs were 4-1 vs. line for Karl Dorrell this season.
CU 0-5 SU (1-4 vs. line) last five bowls, only one since 2007, and no SU wins since ‘99 Insight.com Bowl vs. BC.


Tech Edge: Texas, based on bowl trends. slight to UCF, based on bowl trends.




*******************************


NCAAF
Dunkel


Bowl Week



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211W VIRGINIA -212 ARMY
W VIRGINIA is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) vs. poor passing teams with a completion pct. of 48% or worse. since 1992.


295OKLAHOMA ST -296 MIAMI
MIAMI is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) off upset loss vs conference foe since 1992.


297COLORADO -298 TEXAS
COLORADO is 14-30 ATS (-19 Units) in road games after allowing >=37 pts. since 1992.


311WISCONSIN -312 WAKE FOREST
WAKE FOREST is 22-9 ATS (12.1 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.


313MISSOURI -314 IOWA
MISSOURI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.


313MISSOURI -314 IOWA
MISSOURI is 8-1 Under (6.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.


315FLORIDA -316 OKLAHOMA
FLORIDA is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival since 1992.


317MISSISSIPPI ST -318 TULSA
MISSISSIPPI ST is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992.


321BALL ST -322 SAN JOSE ST
BALL ST is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.


323ARKANSAS -324 TCU
ARKANSAS are 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) in road games against the Big 12 since 1992.
 

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NCAAF

Bowl Week


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