2012 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 5-4, -$32
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
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2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Last day for months with a four-or-more-game schedule, which is just extremely bizarre to think about, so let’s try and make the most of it. That *could* be tough, as there’s nothing else in sports quite like a deciding Game 5 or Game 7, which means normal mindsets are all out of whack, and given the little or no precedent for it with all of the players involved, it makes for quite the interesting variable. In any case, let’s see what there is on this final action-packed Thursday…
Matt Cain vs Mat Latos UNDER 7 - $39 for $35
Well look at this. It’s a former NL West rivalry set to be showcased in this deciding Game 5. Let me tell you, when Mat Latos first popped onto the scene back in 2009, I was one of his biggest supporters, and with ease, he dominated throughout his years in San Diego, in evolving into the clear-cut top-rotation pitcher that he is today. However, I had my doubts when he came to Cincinnati, now having to pitch in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark compared to the coziness of Petco Park,and throughout the early portions of this season, those doubts were a legitimate concern, as he carried a 5+ ERA throughout most of June. Of course, Latos improved significantly, especially at home, and ended up with his usual terrific season that we’ve all grown accustomed to from him, after posting a really fabulous summer and beyond. HOWEVER, the writing is on the wall, so to speak, as do you realize the main reason WHY he struggled through his first few months in Cincy? Pressure. How do I know that with 100-percent certainty? Well, it’s why I regularly read player quotes, and in the beginning of his newfound Reds’ tenure, all Latos could do was place the blame on the pressure he was feeling, coming over to a more tradition-rich team with the expectations of being their ace and a “cornerstone” (His word usage) of the franchise. In addition, he also felt pressure from the fact that the Reds gave up multiple players, including a top prospect, just to acquire him... when a player actually openly talks about things like that to the media, it means it weighed heavily on his mind, but luckily he was able to recover - very strongly, of course - from it, while being very, very steady over the second half.
Why is all of that relevant to today’s start? It shows Latos, more than most, CAN be affected by pressure, which is why you can’t make this a huge bet. Yes, he is at home, where he has surprisingly been at his best this season, and yes, he is facing a team whom he’s always been really good against so that familiarity is there, which is important. But unfortunately, there is that spotlight variable, and as we know from Latos’ struggles in the beginning of the season, he can be vulnerable to pressure. On the contrary, he did come into Game 1 and pitch beautifully in relief of Johnny Cueto, although that was a different situation altogether because since he was pressed into it on such short notice, he didn’t even really have time to feel pressure. When he goes into a low-pressure situation, as he did all the time in San Diego, he’s phenomenal. I’m just concerned that pressure gets to him, with his home fans watching him and “expecting” him (Possible thought in his head) to be in dominant form. Hopefully that does not happen, but if he’s uncharacteristically off today, that is 100-percent the reason why. Trust me, I’ve been tracking this guy for years and he’s a very mentally-oriented pitcher - more than most in the game. As for Matt Cain, well, he had an unusually off outing in Game 1, but what do prideful, battle-tested aces do after they’ve been embarrassed like that? They usually buckle down and get back on track. Yes, it’s a little worrisome that Cain didn’t have his usual great start his first time out, but considering how consistently good he’s been throughout his entire career, with mostly terrific postseason pitching (Game 1of this series was his only average postseason start), I have confidence we’ll see more of his normal self, even on the road where he’s never been as great. Those split stats aren’t as crucial in these types of scenarios because Elimination Games such as this are all about mind-power. Cain will lock in and be effective, I just hope Latos thinks more about his great success this year, which should put him on track for a nice outing, rather than letting the pressure get to him. If he does, then we’re in trouble and have to lean on Cain. We’ll see what happens.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**
2011 MLB O/U Playoff Record: 14-11-3, +$5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 MLB O/U Season Record: 361-329-47, -$1,490 (Was making much bigger bets earlier in the year, with countless fluke bad breaks, obviously. I also undoubtedly lead the country in half-run/one-run losses)
2011 MLB O/U Season Record: 366-270-42, +$1,104
Last day for months with a four-or-more-game schedule, which is just extremely bizarre to think about, so let’s try and make the most of it. That *could* be tough, as there’s nothing else in sports quite like a deciding Game 5 or Game 7, which means normal mindsets are all out of whack, and given the little or no precedent for it with all of the players involved, it makes for quite the interesting variable. In any case, let’s see what there is on this final action-packed Thursday…
Matt Cain vs Mat Latos UNDER 7 - $39 for $35
Well look at this. It’s a former NL West rivalry set to be showcased in this deciding Game 5. Let me tell you, when Mat Latos first popped onto the scene back in 2009, I was one of his biggest supporters, and with ease, he dominated throughout his years in San Diego, in evolving into the clear-cut top-rotation pitcher that he is today. However, I had my doubts when he came to Cincinnati, now having to pitch in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark compared to the coziness of Petco Park,and throughout the early portions of this season, those doubts were a legitimate concern, as he carried a 5+ ERA throughout most of June. Of course, Latos improved significantly, especially at home, and ended up with his usual terrific season that we’ve all grown accustomed to from him, after posting a really fabulous summer and beyond. HOWEVER, the writing is on the wall, so to speak, as do you realize the main reason WHY he struggled through his first few months in Cincy? Pressure. How do I know that with 100-percent certainty? Well, it’s why I regularly read player quotes, and in the beginning of his newfound Reds’ tenure, all Latos could do was place the blame on the pressure he was feeling, coming over to a more tradition-rich team with the expectations of being their ace and a “cornerstone” (His word usage) of the franchise. In addition, he also felt pressure from the fact that the Reds gave up multiple players, including a top prospect, just to acquire him... when a player actually openly talks about things like that to the media, it means it weighed heavily on his mind, but luckily he was able to recover - very strongly, of course - from it, while being very, very steady over the second half.
Why is all of that relevant to today’s start? It shows Latos, more than most, CAN be affected by pressure, which is why you can’t make this a huge bet. Yes, he is at home, where he has surprisingly been at his best this season, and yes, he is facing a team whom he’s always been really good against so that familiarity is there, which is important. But unfortunately, there is that spotlight variable, and as we know from Latos’ struggles in the beginning of the season, he can be vulnerable to pressure. On the contrary, he did come into Game 1 and pitch beautifully in relief of Johnny Cueto, although that was a different situation altogether because since he was pressed into it on such short notice, he didn’t even really have time to feel pressure. When he goes into a low-pressure situation, as he did all the time in San Diego, he’s phenomenal. I’m just concerned that pressure gets to him, with his home fans watching him and “expecting” him (Possible thought in his head) to be in dominant form. Hopefully that does not happen, but if he’s uncharacteristically off today, that is 100-percent the reason why. Trust me, I’ve been tracking this guy for years and he’s a very mentally-oriented pitcher - more than most in the game. As for Matt Cain, well, he had an unusually off outing in Game 1, but what do prideful, battle-tested aces do after they’ve been embarrassed like that? They usually buckle down and get back on track. Yes, it’s a little worrisome that Cain didn’t have his usual great start his first time out, but considering how consistently good he’s been throughout his entire career, with mostly terrific postseason pitching (Game 1of this series was his only average postseason start), I have confidence we’ll see more of his normal self, even on the road where he’s never been as great. Those split stats aren’t as crucial in these types of scenarios because Elimination Games such as this are all about mind-power. Cain will lock in and be effective, I just hope Latos thinks more about his great success this year, which should put him on track for a nice outing, rather than letting the pressure get to him. If he does, then we’re in trouble and have to lean on Cain. We’ll see what happens.
**May Add More Over/Under(s) Throughout Day Leading Up To Gametime**
**Remember that if you have a question concerning an over/under, I will gladly assist you with it if I see it before the game starts, even the ones I don't bet on, as I have at least a small vibe on every single over/under from studying this stuff every single day and night**