It's just such a shame how all of this played out. This had all the ingredients for an under... the ONE reason we lost had everything to do with the questionable calls by Hallion on those two ABs to bottom-of-the-order hitters (Which obviously had a complete effect on Latos' mentality), and the error at short when the runner would have been out at home... without those two incidents, this game is still 2-0 right now. Such a shame
Every time you lose it's bad luck, or a bad beat. It's never because you made a poor wager, like this one.
You're a decent handicapper, but enough with the excuses. If you were that concerned with Latos' mental state, then pass. Every poor pitch or mistake was all because of his head, not just because he made a bad pitch. Incredible.
You're a decent handicapper, but enough with the excuses. If you were that concerned with Latos' mental state, then pass. Every poor pitch or mistake was all because of his head, not just because he made a bad pitch. Incredible.
this is the rumblings of a loser. Sorry.
Every time something bad happens to your bet, it's bad luck. Of course, those base runners that didn't score in the 1st inning wasn't bad luck for those that played the over, they weren't supposed to because you played under.
Take the good with the bad, the wins with the losses, and quit whining over every damn thing that goes against you.
All of this because I hated on your A's in one post? Lol I'm a Ranger fan, and your team cost my team one of the biggest collapses in sports in recent memory (I mean, we WERE in first place every single day since April 8. Obviously I'd be upset about that).
I make excuses for every loss? Really? What about the game yesterday that I 100-percent deserved to lose? I could not have been anymore wrong with that Gonzalez vs Kuroda matchup. Did I make an excuse there?
And if that whole scenario wasn't a bad break, explain to me how it wasn't. Obviously you and I think on different wavelengths. As I've preached since my very first day here, pitching is all MENTAL. Thus, when Latos and Cain jumped out of the gate strong to produce a beautiful 0-0 pitcher's duel through four innings, explain to me why it would just suddenly unravel - circumstances outside our control, or the pitchers' control. Simple. It certainly wasn't stuff, as both possessed their top stuff throughout the first half of this game. It wasn't decreased velocity, as each guy hit their usual mark on the radar gun.
Think of this way: The ONLY way the over could have gotten on track in the fifth inning was for:
A)Blown calls behind the plate. Calls that were clear strikes were called balls. (Which could NOT be predicted, by the way, because from experience, Hallion is more of an unders guy than an overs guy)
B)Defensive error directly leading to a run
Now, if you've been a regular reader of mine this year, you'd notice that every time I talked about Latos, who I had a very good record with by the way to further illustrate how much I've known him since he debuted in 2009, I emphasize the same thing, just as I did today: The Head Game. He's as much a mentally-oriented pitcher as anyone out there - it is his only reason for any potential failure.
Okay. So if I know him that well, why should I back away from the bet in the first place? In other words, I knew the only way it'd take for him to fail is if things outside of his control that were messed up around him (Errors; Blown Ball/Strike calls), and unfortunately, that's exactly what happened. Breaking it down further from the other side, and knowing all of that, the ONLY way an over backer could have won this game was if those lucky, lower-percentage instances took place, and unfortunately, that's exactly what happened. When that means you have to count on something lucky that doesn't normally happen (Ex. An error by a shortstop, Brandon Crawford, who is SPECIFICALLY in there for defensive purposes; much superior with the glove over Joaquan Arias), then, well, that means whoever had the over got lucky. WITHOUT the blown calls and bad fielding, the under is still well on pace right now. When you make a bet, you HAVE to assume those normally steady influences are indeed just that - steady. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case, and as a result, Mat Latos' one and only weakness came into play, as I've written about all year: His Mindset.
Anyone who knows Mat Latos, and anyone who watched this game knows the under was the right bet. You can't predict a few things completely outside of Latos' control were going to happen, which is directly what led to this over
Cat and I say this with respect to Biz's thread and also to you for all your hard work. I have to agree with him 100%, not necessarily about the excuse thing every time things don't go your or anyone's way but the way you address failure or in other words losing. All through your threads you address the point that Latos could implode at the whim of whether the ump either raised or kept his right hand at his side. Why in the hell would you touch such a person especially being the most significant person on the field. Go back and read your threads and the ask yourself again, do I want to put money on him or look elsewhere for a wager. I didn't play the game at all so have nothing to win or lose. I think sometimes we don't pay attention to our own minds. That's why I mainly just read what people have to say and then think about it awhile, there are message's within the thread that aren't written but implied and we should look real hard to find them. Lot of really smart people here with great picks and rationale to back them up but no one wins every time and we must accept failure better to be better winners.
Very well said.
I guess I'm just frustrated because I know Latos so well, and have since he debuted in 09, that it really sucks to lose like that when I'm all over him and I've written about it so much, and from watching him, it's just so, so, so obvious (His emotion getting the best of him; letting things outside of his control get to his head) that I hate to lose from something I see all the time and that I know so well. With him, I just like to assume that the other influences around him will be steady (Fielding, Ump Calls), but when it's not, that's when shit hits the fan.
I'm not, at all, referring to this as a bad beat. It is NOT a bad beat. It happens and it's normal. I do think, though, that it was a bit unlucky because without the error by a top-fielding shortstop, and without the blown calls by Hallion on pitches that were revealed as strikes (And you can see Latos' disgust by his body language and reaction), there is no doubt in my mind that Latos would still be in his groove (Which he obviously was in the first four innings), and thus, this is a completely different ballgame. With that logic, that's what I'm saying is a bit unlucky: That it required an error from a top-fielding shortstop and said questionable calls behind the plate.
But I don't want to dwell on it. It is what it is. It's not a bad beat but it's just a real shame how it played out because it's so goddamn predictable with Mat Latos. If only he could keep his head straight, there is no question he can be a top five or top ten pitcher in all of baseball. Period. Such a simple thing to fix that can be addressed and he still hasn't fixed it in four years of being a professional.
Frustration on my part
Cat, move on bro. I have to agree with BZ and Odee. Nothing is ever steady in sports gambling. Too many IF this and IF that from you. In every losing bet someone makes there is something that happened that they obviously did not expect to happen or else they would not have made that bet. Its gambling you cannot nit pick on the what ifs. You keep going back to the error or a blown strike call, unfortunately those are all aspects of the game and will NEVER change. A loss is a loss, dude move on.
Agreed to an extent, but when they do happen (Especially an error made by a slick-fielding shortstop who is only in there for that purpose: fielding. When a guy is only in there for fielding... come on, that never happens), it's unlucky. That's all I'm saying. And when someone wins based on a lucky occurrence, that means it wasn't completely the right bet because you shouldn't have to win on luck. You should win your bets based on skill and just knowing that specific game. If you go through all of my wins from the regular season, just about all of them came from skill and correctly anticipating the pitchers involved... not a lucky incident. Yes, it's part of gambling, but when it does indeed occur, it doesn't mean the other side was "wrong." Gambling should be about getting the game right, not depending on a lucky occurrence.
I'm ready to move on from this game. It's not a bad beat or anything because, as you said, it does happen. It's just frustrating because when I win my games, I earn them, and it's especially frustrating because I've been on the other end of lucky occurrences this season a lot more than not. A lot. If you followed me throughout the regular season, just about all of my wins were based on skill, correctly predicting how the pitchers would perform, and getting it right like that - NOT depending on a lucky incident. But, as we all know, it happens, and I'm moving on. That's all there is to say
Cat,
Nothing to do with fan allegiance, never crossed my mind.
I read a lot of your posts. They are articulate, well thought out, well researched. You state your case and make your play. I have immense respect for all of this.
However, when things go wrong you make excuses. Sorry bro, you just do. You are blaming a perceived missed call as the basis for an implosion. Cat, the strike zone has been huge the entire post season, and I'm sure you've benefitted on your under plays to an extent because of this. You can't now cherry pick a questionable non-strike as the foundation for a loss. Or for that matter, an error. If that play is made, nobody knows what happens after that. They may have still hit he over, maybe not. You don't know.
You yourself talked about Latos' shaky mental constitution, yet still backed him. If you think he was affected by anything, and it caused an implosion, then that was the inherent risk you took when making your play. The risk manifested itself, and caused a loss.
Not trying to bust balls here, but you have to take the good with the bad. Again, runners were all over the bases in the first, nobody scored. Couple hits and your total is done in the first. You can't come back and moan about the 5th.
Good luck going forward.
Nothing to do with fan allegiance, never crossed my mind.
I read a lot of your posts. They are articulate, well thought out, well researched. You state your case and make your play. I have immense respect for all of this.
However, when things go wrong you make excuses. Sorry bro, you just do. You are blaming a perceived missed call as the basis for an implosion. Cat, the strike zone has been huge the entire post season, and I'm sure you've benefitted on your under plays to an extent because of this. You can't now cherry pick a questionable non-strike as the foundation for a loss. Or for that matter, an error. If that play is made, nobody knows what happens after that. They may have still hit he over, maybe not. You don't know.
You yourself talked about Latos' shaky mental constitution, yet still backed him. If you think he was affected by anything, and it caused an implosion, then that was the inherent risk you took when making your play. The risk manifested itself, and caused a loss.
Not trying to bust balls here, but you have to take the good with the bad. Again, runners were all over the bases in the first, nobody scored. Couple hits and your total is done in the first. You can't come back and moan about the 5th.
Good luck going forward.
Ditto. Agree with all 3 of you.
Cat, if you lose....just MOVE ON....and get the next winner! EVERY SINGLE TIME you lose, it wasn't "your fault." We understand that. It's none of our faults as we are gambling and putting our well earned $$$ down on the line. The only person to blame for making any type of wager is, YOURSELF. We have control over everything we do. Just move on to the next one and get winners....
Good luck.
Ugh,...I respect just about everyone in this forum. I've said this before and will say it again. It's HIS THREAD!!!! If he wants to bitch and whine about losses,...who gives a shit. Seriously. If u don't like it, stay out his thread. Plain and simple. I find humorous when he complains cause he is basically saying what we would say and that's fact. Sorry but true. That's the fact with every gambler. Part of the lifestyle. It just is. Does it bother me sometimes? Maybe but I don't have the right to bitch about it on his thread because I read it constantly and tail his plays like MOST of u do. Let the man live on his own thread. Case closed. ANYWAYS,...haha on to the next one. Lets make some money tonight forum! I'm at Yankee stadium for the game tonight. Hoping to close this shit out!
Thank you. You're correct with most of this (The only incorrect thing was the last paragraph... even if they scored a few runs in the first, the under is never done in the first. Trust me
Actually seen a lot of instances this year alone where 3-5 runs were scored in the first inning, only for an Under 7 to hold up). Your glaring correct point was the balls and strikes point, which is always petty for someone to complain over when it could go either way. It was just frustration on my part because I know Latos inside and out, so watching him meltdown after that right before I knew it would happen (Hell, I even envision that as the only way he would fail today)... it's just painful watching a bet lose when it could have been SOOO avoidable, and then knowing it would happen right then and there. So yeah, just a lot of frustration. I take a lot of pride in this - I'm a perfectionist actually in the way of a Ricky Romero-type person - so having a win taken from me like that can be frustrating. But it certainly wasn't a bad beat (Game 1 of this Reds/Giants was ABSOLUTELY bad beat for those of us who the under, though lol)But in any case, I'm ready to move on from this game. Thanks for the defense, Reborn, and good luck to your Yankees tonight - I'm sure it will be a very live crowd as always so enjoy the atmosphere and the game. I have a bet on that game, actually, which I'll be posting in a few minutes...
Joe Saunders vs Phil Hughes OVER 8.5 - $30 for $25
Not a big bet or anything, just trying to establish some momentum heading into tomorrow. Phil Hughes is an interesting specimen, having come off a really solid season in perhaps finally putting everything together after having boatloads of potential for so long. His problem? Throwing way too many pitches and constantly nibbling around the plate, which would lead to said high-pitch counts. His solution? Just pound the strike zone and trust your stuff more, which has work, hence his 16-13, 4.23 ERA, 1.26 statline. However, while he was interestingly better at home this season, he didn't really enjoy much success against Baltimore this season (2-2, 4.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .284 BAA), and this being his first postseason start since 2010 (When he had mostly bad results in the playoffs), I think we'll see more of a struggling Hughes trying to battle. As for Joe Saunders, talk about proving everyone wrong and throwing a gem in the "Play-In" game in a spot where everyone thought he would struggle (Given his extensive awful history against the Rangers and in Arlington). He's in a similar situation tonight, going up against a team he's never really had success against (5.82 ERA, 1.53 WHIP career against the Yankees), and while he did pump out a quality start against these same Yankees somewhat recently, I don't think he can follow up his first postseason start with the same amount of success. This Yankee team right now cannot have any more momentum after last night's comeback, and since good hitting is contagious, I think it can continue. There's more of a laid-back atmosphere, as they weren't really supposed to make that historic comeback last night, so this is like playing with house money for them, and when a dangerous team that only struggles when they're pressing is playing on house money, that can only lead to an explosive effort. All we need is a 5-4 outcome, which is surprising, as a matchup of these two caliber pitchers always gets the "9 treatment" for an over/under, so that is something to capitalize on. The only thing I'm afraid of is that one of these pitchers has a stand-out game, leading to a possible 7-1 affair, but as long as we get a crooked number on the scoreboard, we'll be in fine shape.
Not a big bet or anything, just trying to establish some momentum heading into tomorrow. Phil Hughes is an interesting specimen, having come off a really solid season in perhaps finally putting everything together after having boatloads of potential for so long. His problem? Throwing way too many pitches and constantly nibbling around the plate, which would lead to said high-pitch counts. His solution? Just pound the strike zone and trust your stuff more, which has work, hence his 16-13, 4.23 ERA, 1.26 statline. However, while he was interestingly better at home this season, he didn't really enjoy much success against Baltimore this season (2-2, 4.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .284 BAA), and this being his first postseason start since 2010 (When he had mostly bad results in the playoffs), I think we'll see more of a struggling Hughes trying to battle. As for Joe Saunders, talk about proving everyone wrong and throwing a gem in the "Play-In" game in a spot where everyone thought he would struggle (Given his extensive awful history against the Rangers and in Arlington). He's in a similar situation tonight, going up against a team he's never really had success against (5.82 ERA, 1.53 WHIP career against the Yankees), and while he did pump out a quality start against these same Yankees somewhat recently, I don't think he can follow up his first postseason start with the same amount of success. This Yankee team right now cannot have any more momentum after last night's comeback, and since good hitting is contagious, I think it can continue. There's more of a laid-back atmosphere, as they weren't really supposed to make that historic comeback last night, so this is like playing with house money for them, and when a dangerous team that only struggles when they're pressing is playing on house money, that can only lead to an explosive effort. All we need is a 5-4 outcome, which is surprising, as a matchup of these two caliber pitchers always gets the "9 treatment" for an over/under, so that is something to capitalize on. The only thing I'm afraid of is that one of these pitchers has a stand-out game, leading to a possible 7-1 affair, but as long as we get a crooked number on the scoreboard, we'll be in fine shape.
