KEVIN ONEIL THE MAX
THE OVER
Bowl @Tampa, FL
Steelers vs. Cardinals
Line: Steelers –7, 46½
Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
When you average up seven key stat rankings for the Cardinals defense, the average is 18th in the NFL. The average for the Steeler D is better than 2nd. As good as the Eagles, Ravens, and Titans defenses were this year, it is Pittsburgh #1 in important categories like points allowed, yards per rush, yards per pass, yards per play, and a number of scoring stats (fewest TD’s, for instance.) The Cardinals offensive numbers are better than Pittsburgh’s, but remember that the Steelers played a lot of weather games, and played a far superior slate of defenses. The Steelers allowed the fewest points in the league. The next best 7 defensive scoring teams were the Titans, Ravens, Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Colts, and Patriots. The Steelers played every one of those teams, playing the Ravens 3 times. All told, those 7 stout defensive teams made up half of the Steelers schedule, giving them 9 of their 18 games (including playoffs) against these top D’s. From 2004 through 2006, current Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt was the Steelers offensive coordinator, and Dick Lebeau was the Steelers defensive coordinator, a job that he continues to excel in to this day. In those roles, the two men selfscouted each other pretty frequently. Whisenhunt and his offensive staff spent a lot of time analyzing the Steelers defense saying “here’s the way I’d attack us…” with Lebeau and his defensive coaches mock game planning to defend the Steelers offense and then sharing the results with the offensive coaches.
The many hours these men and their staffs spent together probing the weaknesses of their respective units leaves them very familiar with one another’s philosophies and tactics. The element of surprise is a key Super Bowl weapon. With two weeks to prepare for this game, don’t be surprised if there both the Cardinals offense and the Steelers defense have some wrinkles up their sleeves that don’t appear on film. The familiarity doesn’t exist only when the Cardinals have the ball. Whisenhunt’s assistant head coach is Russ Grimm, the Steelers’ offensive line coach during those
years. Grimm and Whisenhunt coached many of the current Steelers offensive personnel. And they doubtlessly have some well-formed opinions on where on the offensive line they want to attack and how to contain Pittsburgh’s offensive weapons. We’ll be seeing quite a chess match in
Tampa on Super Bowl Sunday. To us, that’s a lot more interesting than the personal enmity between Ben Roethlisberger and Whisenhunt.
The Cardinals have lost four games by 21 or more. Can we forgive the Cards for this? Early in the season they put on a festival of turnovers in the Meadowlands and got mauled by the Jets. A 7-1 turnover disadvantage will do that to you. Then in weeks 12, 14, and 15 they lost by 28, 21, and 40. A Thanksgiving night loss to the Eagles could be excused by a horrid travel scenario. The consecutive blowout losses in December came after they had already clinched their division. While it doesn’t exactly show great character, if you can excuse away the four losses, than the Cards resume is tons stronger. And really, their resume
from the playoffs, especially the past two weeks, is outstanding. They’re doing a lot of very good things. Do the Cardinals really attack Roethlisberger or do they just try to keep him in the pocket. The only offensive TD the Steelers produced last week came on a broken play.
When the QB breaks containment is when he is most dangerous. That’s something to watch. You know that the Steelers allowed over 290 yards only once, giving up 323 yards in their loss to the Titans right before Christmas. Amazingly, the Steelers allowed 243 yards or less in 11 of their 18 games. Believe it or not, that defensive brilliance keys our Max play on the over. Whisenhunt is well aware of the Pittsburgh’s defensive
prowess. He’s a very smart guy, and the last thing he’s going to do is play conservatively and try to get lucky late. He knows that the Steelers defense becomes a holy terror when they have the lead. Whisenhunt is a coach who likes to get the ball down the field, who likes to optimize Larry
Fitzgerald, who understands that the Cardinals will need to play their game to win. Look for Arizona to throw caution to the wind and come out winging the ball. As good as the Steelers defense is, nobody runs the kind of intricate deep patterns that the Cardinals can with their receivers.
Fitzgerald is dominating and with two weeks for his hamstring to heal further, Boldin may put his diva act to rest and make himself some money by having a big game. With all due respect to Troy Polamalu, don’t be surprised if the Cardinals have some success with their deep and
crossing patterns, as their pass attack is clicking right now. Note that our expectation of a wide-open game plan from the Cardinals from the get-go runs counter to one of our usual Super Bowl staples, the suggestion that the first quarter and first half will be low scoring. So we’re not
necessarily on board with our usual first quarter under, first half under, and more points to be scored in the second half/ OT than in the first half. Both teams have opportunistic defenses that can create short fields and
points. In their two playoff games, the Steelers have a 6-1 turnover edge. The Cards have enjoyed an 11-3 turnover advantage in their three playoff encounters. The Steelers are the better team. Their defense is prodigious, and their offense is better than statistics suggest due to their tough schedule. But I’m hesitant to lay a TD, as the Cards are hot, and hot teams are dangerous in the NFL playoffs these days. But I do expect
the Cardinals to attack aggressively from the get go, so over the total is our call.