The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
SportsInsights.com and Superbowl XLIII
Contrarian Sports Investing
SportsInsights.com (“SIs”) believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights' quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks. The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to “fade” the public or “bet against the Public.”
The Public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year's Superbowl shows the Public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Superbowl. This is an interesting departure for the Public and shows how much “value” there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of “fading” the Public points to the Steelers.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58%
Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement
SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call “Smart Money Analysis.” This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using “betting percentages” as a standalone indicator.
For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7.
This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public's action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)
Intangibles and Other Contrarian Angles
In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets.
For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events.
Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We'll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.”
During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points.
Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)
Quick Analysis of Recent Superbowl Scores
SportsInsights' analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores.
• 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less.
We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games:
• 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD.
Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)
Overview
SportsInsights looks for value in a variety of ways. For more information about SportsInsights.com's philosophy on sports investing, please visit our articles on Sports Investing and Value. For live odds and SIs' exclusive “betting percentages” on major U.S. sporting events.
Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the “sports marketplace” point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to “shop for the best line” because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win Championships? We'll see in a few days.
Games to Watch - Playoff Editions (1-2 = 33.3%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
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For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
SportsInsights.com and Superbowl XLIII
Contrarian Sports Investing
SportsInsights.com (“SIs”) believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights' quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks. The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to “fade” the public or “bet against the Public.”
The Public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year's Superbowl shows the Public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Superbowl. This is an interesting departure for the Public and shows how much “value” there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of “fading” the Public points to the Steelers.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58%
Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement
SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call “Smart Money Analysis.” This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using “betting percentages” as a standalone indicator.
For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7.
This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public's action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)
Intangibles and Other Contrarian Angles
In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets.
For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events.
Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We'll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.”
During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points.
Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)
Quick Analysis of Recent Superbowl Scores
SportsInsights' analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores.
• 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less.
We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games:
• 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD.
Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl.
Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)
Overview
SportsInsights looks for value in a variety of ways. For more information about SportsInsights.com's philosophy on sports investing, please visit our articles on Sports Investing and Value. For live odds and SIs' exclusive “betting percentages” on major U.S. sporting events.
Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the “sports marketplace” point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to “shop for the best line” because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win Championships? We'll see in a few days.
Games to Watch - Playoff Editions (1-2 = 33.3%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
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THE SPORTS MEMO
Tim Trushel
Will T. Hightower score a touchdown? (CRIS)
No-180
In his last eight games, Hightower has two TDs. He did not have a receiving TD during the entire season and had only one play of more than 30. Simply put, he is not a huge part of the offense. The only projection for a TD here would be on a short yardage situation but Arizona likes to pass in goal-to-go spots (Pittsburgh’s defense allowed
seven rushing TDs during the regular season). Grab the no now
Rob Veno
A. Boldin total receiving yards (CRIS)
Over 64.5 -115
Boldin compiled 62+ yards in 11 of his 14 games played this season. You have to believe the highly publicized sideline argument between Boldin and OC Todd Haley has the receiver extremely determined to produce and Haley looking to get him the ball. With Pittsburgh’s best and most physical cover man Ike Taylor assigned to Larry Fitzgerald,
look for Boldin to take advantage of CB Bryant McFadden.
Donnie Black
E. James rushing attempts (Greek)
Under 13.5 -130
In the last week of the season against Seattle, James got back into action
and ran 14 times for 100 yards. In three playoff games he carried the ball 52 times. Yet we think the amount of carries had much more to do with the situation of Arizona holding big leads, and we don’t expect that to happen here. Additionally, while Baltimore showed a willingness to run the ball, Arizona will eschew the run if it does not produce dividends.
Brent Crow
E. James’ first rush yardage (CRIS)
Under 3 -145
The main reason I bet this under is that I think the majority of James’ rushing attempts will be for 3 yards or less. Pittsburgh allowed
just 3.2 yards per rush on the year while James averaged 3.9 ypc. His first attempt could very well be on the first play of the game for Arizona, and I expect Pittsburgh to be ready for it. Minimal gains expect to be a common theme for James.
Teddy Covers
Total Interceptions (Greek)
Over 2.5 +150
Research has proven that fumbles are largely random, but interceptions
are quite predictable. Both Arizona and Pittsburgh are strong at pressuring the QB and forcing turnovers. In two postseason
games, the Steelers have seven sacks while forcing four INTs. In three postseason games, the Cardinals have forced eight INTs and notched seven sacks. We’ll take the plus-price and play this one over.
Jared Klein
Who will have more receptions? (BoDog)
L. Sweed (PIT)
** J. Urban (ARI) -135
Sweed had only two catches for 20 yards against Baltimore even though Heinz Ward left the game with an injury. Urban should benefit from the hot routes that Arizona will have to run in order to avoid the Steelers’ blitz. Urban had 34 catches on the season compared to six for Sweed and I think this prop has solid value. Take Urban over Sweed this weekend.
Tim Trushel
Will T. Hightower score a touchdown? (CRIS)
No -180
In his last eight games, Hightower has two TDs. He did not have a receiving TD during the entire season and had only one play of more than 30. Simply put, he is not a huge part of the offense. The only projection for a TD here would be on a short yardage situation but Arizona likes to pass in goal-to-go spots (Pittsburgh’s defense allowed
seven rushing TDs during the regular season). Grab the no now.
Fairway Jay
B. Roethlisberger completions (Greek)
Over 17.5 -115
Ben Roethlisberger posted 17.5 completions per game despite the fact that the Steelers faced a far superior schedule that included many defenses superior to Arizona. The Cardinals’ pass defense allowed over 62% completions this season. Each of the three opposing playoff QBs completed at least 17 passes including Carolina’s Jake Delhomme, who had a miserable day. Play this one over.
Erin Rynning
E. James total rushing yards (Hilton)
Under 42.5 -110
While James had games of 73, 57 and 73 rushing yards in the playoffs, keep in mind the Cardinals played with a lead for the majority of the time. More importantly, none of those foes were as stout as the Steelers’ in terms of stopping the run. In the Cardinals’ game against the Eagles, James was able to break a few mid-yardage runs because of simple missed tackles. I don’t expect that type of success in this game.
Ed Cash
Total fumbles lost by both teams (CRIS)
Over 1.5 +115
I think there is good value with the over in this prop. Both quarterbacks have had a propensity to fumble during their careers when sacked (14 lost fumbles combined this season).
Arizona ranked fourth in the league with 20 forced fumbles during the regular season. With the blitz expected to be called with regularity, we’ll take the plus-price with the over.
Marty Otto
C. Davis rush+receiving yards (Greek)
Over 2.5 +120
Davis was an afterthought in the offensive scheme this season as the Steelers went to more one back sets and spread formations. But he has proven to be a nice piece of the puzzle over the past three games. With five catches and one carry for 52 total yards in his last three games, eclipsing this mark looks doable. We just need one touch in 60 minutes and with a nice plus price we’ll take that chance.
Helmut Sports
Will Kurt Warner throw at least one INT (Greek)
Yes -230
With Pittsburgh very good at stopping the run, Arizona could potentially
have even more pass attempts than normal. Quarterback Kurt Warner has thrown at least one interception in six of seven games that Cardinals have lost. Since I think it’s likely they will lose and Pittsburgh ranked second in the AFC in interceptions, the likelihood of this occurring outweighs the moderate sized price.
Sportsmemo’s Super Bowl Picks
Handicapper Side Total
Tim Trushel-----Pittsburgh -6.5------Under 46.5
Teddy Covers---Arizona +7----------Over 46.5
Fairway Jay-----Pittsburgh -6.5------Over 46.5
Erin Rynning-----Pittsburgh -6.5------Over 46.5
Brent Crow------Arizona +7----------Over 46.5
Rob Veno--------Pittsburgh -6.5-----Over 46.5
Ed Cash --------Arizona +7----------Under 46.5
Marty Otto------Arizona +7----------Under 46.5
Jared Klein-------Arizona +7---------Over 46.5
Donnie Black-----Pittsburgh -6.5-----Under 46.5
Helmut Sports ---Pittsburgh -6.5 ----Under 46.5
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Tim Trushel
Will T. Hightower score a touchdown? (CRIS)
No-180
In his last eight games, Hightower has two TDs. He did not have a receiving TD during the entire season and had only one play of more than 30. Simply put, he is not a huge part of the offense. The only projection for a TD here would be on a short yardage situation but Arizona likes to pass in goal-to-go spots (Pittsburgh’s defense allowed
seven rushing TDs during the regular season). Grab the no now
Rob Veno
A. Boldin total receiving yards (CRIS)
Over 64.5 -115
Boldin compiled 62+ yards in 11 of his 14 games played this season. You have to believe the highly publicized sideline argument between Boldin and OC Todd Haley has the receiver extremely determined to produce and Haley looking to get him the ball. With Pittsburgh’s best and most physical cover man Ike Taylor assigned to Larry Fitzgerald,
look for Boldin to take advantage of CB Bryant McFadden.
Donnie Black
E. James rushing attempts (Greek)
Under 13.5 -130
In the last week of the season against Seattle, James got back into action
and ran 14 times for 100 yards. In three playoff games he carried the ball 52 times. Yet we think the amount of carries had much more to do with the situation of Arizona holding big leads, and we don’t expect that to happen here. Additionally, while Baltimore showed a willingness to run the ball, Arizona will eschew the run if it does not produce dividends.
Brent Crow
E. James’ first rush yardage (CRIS)
Under 3 -145
The main reason I bet this under is that I think the majority of James’ rushing attempts will be for 3 yards or less. Pittsburgh allowed
just 3.2 yards per rush on the year while James averaged 3.9 ypc. His first attempt could very well be on the first play of the game for Arizona, and I expect Pittsburgh to be ready for it. Minimal gains expect to be a common theme for James.
Teddy Covers
Total Interceptions (Greek)
Over 2.5 +150
Research has proven that fumbles are largely random, but interceptions
are quite predictable. Both Arizona and Pittsburgh are strong at pressuring the QB and forcing turnovers. In two postseason
games, the Steelers have seven sacks while forcing four INTs. In three postseason games, the Cardinals have forced eight INTs and notched seven sacks. We’ll take the plus-price and play this one over.
Jared Klein
Who will have more receptions? (BoDog)
L. Sweed (PIT)
** J. Urban (ARI) -135
Sweed had only two catches for 20 yards against Baltimore even though Heinz Ward left the game with an injury. Urban should benefit from the hot routes that Arizona will have to run in order to avoid the Steelers’ blitz. Urban had 34 catches on the season compared to six for Sweed and I think this prop has solid value. Take Urban over Sweed this weekend.
Tim Trushel
Will T. Hightower score a touchdown? (CRIS)
No -180
In his last eight games, Hightower has two TDs. He did not have a receiving TD during the entire season and had only one play of more than 30. Simply put, he is not a huge part of the offense. The only projection for a TD here would be on a short yardage situation but Arizona likes to pass in goal-to-go spots (Pittsburgh’s defense allowed
seven rushing TDs during the regular season). Grab the no now.
Fairway Jay
B. Roethlisberger completions (Greek)
Over 17.5 -115
Ben Roethlisberger posted 17.5 completions per game despite the fact that the Steelers faced a far superior schedule that included many defenses superior to Arizona. The Cardinals’ pass defense allowed over 62% completions this season. Each of the three opposing playoff QBs completed at least 17 passes including Carolina’s Jake Delhomme, who had a miserable day. Play this one over.
Erin Rynning
E. James total rushing yards (Hilton)
Under 42.5 -110
While James had games of 73, 57 and 73 rushing yards in the playoffs, keep in mind the Cardinals played with a lead for the majority of the time. More importantly, none of those foes were as stout as the Steelers’ in terms of stopping the run. In the Cardinals’ game against the Eagles, James was able to break a few mid-yardage runs because of simple missed tackles. I don’t expect that type of success in this game.
Ed Cash
Total fumbles lost by both teams (CRIS)
Over 1.5 +115
I think there is good value with the over in this prop. Both quarterbacks have had a propensity to fumble during their careers when sacked (14 lost fumbles combined this season).
Arizona ranked fourth in the league with 20 forced fumbles during the regular season. With the blitz expected to be called with regularity, we’ll take the plus-price with the over.
Marty Otto
C. Davis rush+receiving yards (Greek)
Over 2.5 +120
Davis was an afterthought in the offensive scheme this season as the Steelers went to more one back sets and spread formations. But he has proven to be a nice piece of the puzzle over the past three games. With five catches and one carry for 52 total yards in his last three games, eclipsing this mark looks doable. We just need one touch in 60 minutes and with a nice plus price we’ll take that chance.
Helmut Sports
Will Kurt Warner throw at least one INT (Greek)
Yes -230
With Pittsburgh very good at stopping the run, Arizona could potentially
have even more pass attempts than normal. Quarterback Kurt Warner has thrown at least one interception in six of seven games that Cardinals have lost. Since I think it’s likely they will lose and Pittsburgh ranked second in the AFC in interceptions, the likelihood of this occurring outweighs the moderate sized price.
Sportsmemo’s Super Bowl Picks
Handicapper Side Total
Tim Trushel-----Pittsburgh -6.5------Under 46.5
Teddy Covers---Arizona +7----------Over 46.5
Fairway Jay-----Pittsburgh -6.5------Over 46.5
Erin Rynning-----Pittsburgh -6.5------Over 46.5
Brent Crow------Arizona +7----------Over 46.5
Rob Veno--------Pittsburgh -6.5-----Over 46.5
Ed Cash --------Arizona +7----------Under 46.5
Marty Otto------Arizona +7----------Under 46.5
Jared Klein-------Arizona +7---------Over 46.5
Donnie Black-----Pittsburgh -6.5-----Under 46.5
Helmut Sports ---Pittsburgh -6.5 ----Under 46.5
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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">GOLDSHEET
PITTSBURGH (14-4) vs. ARIZONA (12-7)
Sunday, February 1, 2009 Night at Tampa, FL (Grass Field)
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Pittsburgh14-411-7 23 15 106 206 45-19-21 76 162 26-9-15 +9 2.5 4.1
Arizona 12-7 11-7 27 26 80 286 62-16-39 105 225 60-15-42 +9 -.4 5.3
(07-ARIZ. 21-Pitt 14...A.19-17 A.25/86 P.26/77 A.21/35/0/215 P.17/32/2/205 A.2 P.0)
(07-ARIZONA +5' 21-14...SR: Pittsburgh 31-23-3)
SUPER BOWL XLIII
LOOKING AT ARIZONA
Bill Bidwill’s Cardinals…in the Super Bowl? What next, the Tampa Bay Rays
in the World Series? (Oh, right, that just happened, too).
Indeed, we at TGS have been around long enough to remember when it was
considered a plus for the Big Red that Bill Bidwill bought out brother Stormy to
assume full control of the franchise in 1972. True, the Cardinals haven’t won a
championship since being based in Chicago 61 years ago, and they haven’t
been involved in a title game of any sort in 60 years. But the franchise did
feature several contending teams in the ‘60s and ‘70s, with the likes of QB
Charley Johnson, TE Jackie Smith, OT Ernie McMillan, and DB Larry Wilson
perennial Pro Bowlers, while a later generation of Big Red stars such as QB Jim
Hart, WR Mel Gray, RB Terry Metcalf, and OT Dan Dierdorf spearheaded one
of the NFL’s most exciting offenses in the mid ‘70s when the Cards were again
a serious contender under HC Don Coryell. But until this season, the
postseason drought since the Coryell era was interrupted only by a wild card
appearance (and upset of Dallas in a first-round playoff game) ten years ago.
Many attributed the ongoing failures to Bill Bidwill’s increasing incompetence as
an owner, although it should be noted that son Michael has since taken over much
of the administrative responsibilities, and that it was Michael who recommended
Steeler o.c. Ken Whisenhunt be hired as coach prior to the 2007 campaign.
But nobody then really foresaw a Cardinal Super Bowl appearance coming
anytime soon.
Still, we think Arizona is better than its 2008 regular-season record of 9-7, as
its three straight playoff wins indicate. Remember, the Cards had the watereddown
NFC West in their pocket by mid-November, and they understandably lost
some focus afterward. Arizona, which developed a substantial home-field edge
this season at Glendale, was admittedly not as menacing on the road,
especially in trips to the eastern time zone where the Big Red lost all five of its
regular-season games (some convincingly so). But that time zone bugaboo
was put to rest with the Cards’ 33-13 whipping of host Carolina in the
division playoff round. And that performance, along with Arizona’s other
two impressive postseason successes, suggests that we ought not
downgrade the Cards too much for some of their regular-season flaws
that have not proven costly in their playoff run.
Specifically, after ranking last in NFL rush stats during the regular season,
the playoff version has committed itself to establishing an infantry diversion for
gunslinging vet QB Kurt Warner (8-2 SU in NFL Playoffs; 3-0 as a dog). If not
dominating, the new-look ground attack has at least proven effective, forcing
opponents to pay attention, adding a bit more bite to Warner’s play-action
repertoire, and helping provide an extra tick or two for Warner to locate his
receivers downfield. The rejuvenated Edgerrin James, fresh after being
relegated to backup duty at midseason, has re-emerged as a threat at RB
with a string of impressive rushing efforts and is complemented effectively
by hard-running rookie Tim Hightower, who had earlier supplanted James in
the lineup and who scored the winning TD in the NFC title game vs. the
Eagles on a middle screen pass.
Make no mistake, however, the nucleus of the offense is the 37-year-old
Warner, who embraced the starting role in preseason after HC Whisenhunt
decided 3rd-year Matt Leinart hadn’t demonstrated the necessary leadership.
Warner (67%, 30 TDs) played out of memory for most of the season, enjoying
his best year since his Super Bowl days with the Rams nearly a decade ago. His
quick release mostly allowed him to avoid sacks (the Cards ranked 7th best in
that category) and set the table for rapport with his dynamic trio of wideouts
(Larry Fitzgerald, the recently-controversial Anquan Boldin, and Steve
Breaston), each of whom gained more than 1000 receiving yards. And
Whisenhunt’s creative bent has been embraced by o.c. Todd Haley, who
has picked the right time to dip into the Cards’ bag of tricks (notably the fleaflicker
that resulted in a 62-yard Warner-to-Fitzgerald TD pass in the NFC
title win over the Eagles).
Meanwhile, the Big Red “D” has also stepped things up a notch in the
postseason, stunting and blitzing for underrated d.c. Clancy Pendergast and
forcing a whopping 12 TOs in playoff action. Plenty of playmakers have been
unleashed, including veteran SS Adrian Wilson, FS Antrel Rolle & rookie CB
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the 2ndary, and DT Darnell Dockett & LB
Karlos Dansby in an active front seven that has proven disruptive in the
postseason and which muted Carolina’s punishing ground attack in that
noteworthy playoff win at Charlotte.
There has been nothing fluky about the Cardinals’ playoff march, with the
wins vs. the favored Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles. To paraphrase the late
actor John Houseman from the old Smith Barney commercials, “The Cardinals
have gotten to the Super Bowl the old-fashioned way…they e-a-r-n-e-d it.”
LOOKING AT PITTSBURGH
The Steelers fought through a somewhat disjointed first two months, starting
the season 6-3 while combating injuries to QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Willie
Parker, starting RG Kendall Simmons, LT Marvel Smith, and promising rookie
RB Rashard Mendenhall. Moreover, Pittsburgh went into the season needing
to replace stalwart LG Alan Faneca (young veteran Chris Kemoeatu took over).
Because of the OL injuries and while the current starting five—LT Max Starks (a
converted RT who had lost his starting job), LG Kemoeatu, solid C Justin
Hartwig, new starting RG Darnell Stapleton, and emerging third-year RT Willie
Colon—was melding, Roethlisberger often took a beating (nine sacks in third
game at Philly), struggling through shoulder & back injuries and concussions.
Thus, the battered Roethlisberger garnered only 17 TD passes vs. 15 ints.,
while Parker (out 5 games; less than 100% in several others) totaled only 791
YR and 3.8 ypc. With the big QB instinctively prone to hold onto the ball extra
long in order to make plays, the Steelers gave up 49 sacks, 29th in the league.
However, the re-made OL reportedly began holding its own weekly film
sessions to cut down on its mistakes, and Roethlisberger began meeting the
“big uglies” for dinners to further improve chemistry. Backup RB Mewelde
Moore (588 YR) boosted his output. Parker gradually fought past his knee
injury. But while the offense was overcoming the injuries and changes, the
Steelers’ were able to rely on their intimidating, hard-hitting, and oftendeceptive
defense, orchestrated by d.c. and zone blitz guru Dick LeBeau (who
THE GOLD SHEET believes belongs in the Hall of Fame). That stubborn stop
unit finished first in yards, points & pass defense and was No. 2 in rush defense
and sacks. Tall CB Ike Taylor (6-2) became one of the best cover men in the
league, playmaking SS Troy Polamalu collected 7 ints., second-year OLB
LaMarr Woodley (11½ sacks) emerged as a major force, and OLB James
Harrison (16 sacks) was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year. Only
one team (Tennessee, with 323 yards) gained more than 300 yards vs. the 2008
Men of Steel all season.
With its offense carrying more of the load (28.5 ppg its last 8, despite frequent
marginal weather) later in the season, Pittsburgh closed with a rush, going 8-1
straight up (including the playoffs), 7-2 vs. the spread, with 6 of the 8 wins by 7
points or more. The Robert Frost-quoting Mike Tomlin, at 36, thus became the
youngest HC to reach the Super Bowl, carrying the torch for a once long-suffering
franchise that is now seeking to become the first in NFL history to win six Super Bowls.
One major concern is the sprained MCL suffered by go-to WR Hines Ward
(MVP of Super Bowl XL in Detroit), the team’s leader with 81 recs. and arguably
the league’s best blocker among wideouts.
SUPER BOWL XLIII
If we’ve learned anything from football playoff games over the years, it’s that
results of previous regular-season meetings are hardly foolproof indicators of
what might transpire in a postseason rematch. That’s especially true if the last
meeting between the teams occurred in a prior campaign. Nonetheless,
because of the unique dynamics involved between Pittsburgh and Arizona, a
brief revisit of 2007’s 21-14 Cardinal win Sept. 30 at Glendale is in order.
The Steelers entered that game hot, having scored 97 points in winning their
first 3 games in impressive fashion, but they were mostly held in check by the
Arizona defense that afternoon. Indeed, Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes
thought Whisenhunt’s familiarity with his old team proved a bonus for the Big
Red. “I think coach Whiz knew some of our weak points of our offense,” said
Holmes. “He was sending guys left and right, bringing pressure as much as he
could to try and disrupt our offense.” The Steelers’ usually robust infantry was
slowed to a crawl, Willie Parker gaining only 37 YR on 19 carries, while QB Ben
Roethlisberger tossed a pair of picks and was sacked 4 times. Meanwhile, Kurt
Warner came off the bench to relieve the ineffective Matt Leinart for Arizona,
with the vet QB leading a second-half comeback that was augmented by a 73-
yard punt return TD, courtesy of Steve Breaston. Arizona, with Edgerrin James
gaining 77 YR, outrushed Pittsburgh, while Card WR Larry Fitzgerald caught 10
passes despite being the focus of Steeler pass coverage while teammate
Anquan Boldin was out with an injury.
Thus, it’s apparent that Whisenhunt’s familiarity with his old Steeler troops
made the difference in the last meeting. That doesn’t mean a repeat
performance is in order; certainly, Pittsburgh is a different bunch than it was in
September of ‘07, now having two full seasons under HC Mike Tomlin. But the
Cards, deeper themselves into their coach’s new regime, are hardly the same
team they were last year, either.
They’re a lot better!
We acknowledged some of Arizona’s flaws in the foregoing column, but it’s
worth noting that Whisenhunt & Co. have had nearly a full season to make
adjustments, which is exactly what they’ve done in the postseason. Granted,
the robust Steel Curtain defense could prove an effective blockade. But the Big
Red have successfully balanced their offense in the playoffs, thanks to the reemergence of Edgerrin James. And Warner has dealt successfully with some
of the NFC’s best defenses in the postseason, with the Cards cracking the 30-
point barrier in each of their three playoff games. Indeed, it would be hard to
argue that the Steeler defense is playing any better than Philadelphia’s was
entering the NFC title game, but Warner & Co. jumped on the Eagles early and
had enough poise and presence to weather the desperate Philly rally, resolutely
driving 72 yards in 14 plays for the winning TD in the waning moments at Glendale.
Versus the Julius Peppers-led Carolina pass rush in the division round, and against
the variety of blitzes of Eagle d.c Jim Johnson in the NFC title game, Warner’s
savvy reads and quick release helped diffuse the best of pass rushes, even as it can
against Dick LeBeau’s patented zone blitzers. And no opposing secondary has
figured out a way to slow the rampant Fitzgerald in the postseason.
Forgive us for not being convinced that the 2008 Steeler offense is an
unstoppable machine like some of the old Pittsburgh Super Bowl teams, when
Terry Bradshaw was blessed with future Hall-of-Famers such as Franco Harris,
John Stallworth, and Lynn Swann as his primary weapons. The current Steeler
attack is far less lethal. Granted, Big Ben’s wherewithal is noteworthy, but his
pass protection remains suspect, and the various stunts and blitzes routinely
employed by Clancy Pendergast’s Cardinal defense are acknowledged as the
best way to disrupt Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh attack (which Whisenhunt
knows a thing or two about). Further, key wideout Hines Ward enters the week
at less than 100% due to his knee injury, and RB Parker has had to fight through
an injury-plagued campaign, rarely flashing his old form (the division round win
over San Diego, when Parker gained 146 YR, being one of the exceptions). And
no stop unit has been as opportunistic as Arizona’s in the postseason, forcing
12 big turnovers in three games.
As for the Big Red’s acknowledged shortcomings on the road (especially in
the eastern time zone) during the regular season, it can be argued the Cards
might have temporarily exorcized those demons with their runaway win at
Carolina, which boasted the only 8-0 home record during the regular season.
The dynamics of the Super Bowl, where the teams spend almost a week at the
game’s locale, are far different than a normal, hurried-up, regular-season road
trip, anyway. Besides, it should also be noted that Pittsburgh was not infallible
away from home this season, falling embarrassingly short in two of its toughest
tests away from Heinz Field—smothered by the Eagle defense in a 15-6 earlyseason
loss at the Linc, and outclassed decisively at Tennessee in a late-
December AFC showdown resulting in a 31-14 Titans win. Even the Steelers’
most notable road win was a controversial one, with Santonio Holmes’ disputed
TD catch the difference in a last-minute 13-9 escape at Baltimore. Hardly the
stuff that suggests a dominating Super Bowl performance, away from Heinz
Field, is in the offing.
We acknowledge the Steelers’ enviable qualities, especially their rock-ribbed
defense and ability to create momentum-changing plays, either with their stop
unit or special teams. Another “Troy Polamalu special” could indeed change
the course of this contest. And Big Ben (7-2 SU and vs. the spread in the
playoffs) has emerged as one of the better clutch QBs in the game. But we
suspect Pittsburgh is going to need some unorthodox scores to extend the
margin beyond the oddsmakers’ not-so-insignificant impost. If the Steelers
don’t get those special plays from their defense or on kick return units, we
believe they’re going to be in for a real fight.
One they might even lose.
TGS SCORE FORECAST: ARIZONA 27 - Pittsburgh 24
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
PITTSBURGH (14-4) vs. ARIZONA (12-7)
Sunday, February 1, 2009 Night at Tampa, FL (Grass Field)
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Pittsburgh14-411-7 23 15 106 206 45-19-21 76 162 26-9-15 +9 2.5 4.1
Arizona 12-7 11-7 27 26 80 286 62-16-39 105 225 60-15-42 +9 -.4 5.3
(07-ARIZ. 21-Pitt 14...A.19-17 A.25/86 P.26/77 A.21/35/0/215 P.17/32/2/205 A.2 P.0)
(07-ARIZONA +5' 21-14...SR: Pittsburgh 31-23-3)
SUPER BOWL XLIII
LOOKING AT ARIZONA
Bill Bidwill’s Cardinals…in the Super Bowl? What next, the Tampa Bay Rays
in the World Series? (Oh, right, that just happened, too).
Indeed, we at TGS have been around long enough to remember when it was
considered a plus for the Big Red that Bill Bidwill bought out brother Stormy to
assume full control of the franchise in 1972. True, the Cardinals haven’t won a
championship since being based in Chicago 61 years ago, and they haven’t
been involved in a title game of any sort in 60 years. But the franchise did
feature several contending teams in the ‘60s and ‘70s, with the likes of QB
Charley Johnson, TE Jackie Smith, OT Ernie McMillan, and DB Larry Wilson
perennial Pro Bowlers, while a later generation of Big Red stars such as QB Jim
Hart, WR Mel Gray, RB Terry Metcalf, and OT Dan Dierdorf spearheaded one
of the NFL’s most exciting offenses in the mid ‘70s when the Cards were again
a serious contender under HC Don Coryell. But until this season, the
postseason drought since the Coryell era was interrupted only by a wild card
appearance (and upset of Dallas in a first-round playoff game) ten years ago.
Many attributed the ongoing failures to Bill Bidwill’s increasing incompetence as
an owner, although it should be noted that son Michael has since taken over much
of the administrative responsibilities, and that it was Michael who recommended
Steeler o.c. Ken Whisenhunt be hired as coach prior to the 2007 campaign.
But nobody then really foresaw a Cardinal Super Bowl appearance coming
anytime soon.
Still, we think Arizona is better than its 2008 regular-season record of 9-7, as
its three straight playoff wins indicate. Remember, the Cards had the watereddown
NFC West in their pocket by mid-November, and they understandably lost
some focus afterward. Arizona, which developed a substantial home-field edge
this season at Glendale, was admittedly not as menacing on the road,
especially in trips to the eastern time zone where the Big Red lost all five of its
regular-season games (some convincingly so). But that time zone bugaboo
was put to rest with the Cards’ 33-13 whipping of host Carolina in the
division playoff round. And that performance, along with Arizona’s other
two impressive postseason successes, suggests that we ought not
downgrade the Cards too much for some of their regular-season flaws
that have not proven costly in their playoff run.
Specifically, after ranking last in NFL rush stats during the regular season,
the playoff version has committed itself to establishing an infantry diversion for
gunslinging vet QB Kurt Warner (8-2 SU in NFL Playoffs; 3-0 as a dog). If not
dominating, the new-look ground attack has at least proven effective, forcing
opponents to pay attention, adding a bit more bite to Warner’s play-action
repertoire, and helping provide an extra tick or two for Warner to locate his
receivers downfield. The rejuvenated Edgerrin James, fresh after being
relegated to backup duty at midseason, has re-emerged as a threat at RB
with a string of impressive rushing efforts and is complemented effectively
by hard-running rookie Tim Hightower, who had earlier supplanted James in
the lineup and who scored the winning TD in the NFC title game vs. the
Eagles on a middle screen pass.
Make no mistake, however, the nucleus of the offense is the 37-year-old
Warner, who embraced the starting role in preseason after HC Whisenhunt
decided 3rd-year Matt Leinart hadn’t demonstrated the necessary leadership.
Warner (67%, 30 TDs) played out of memory for most of the season, enjoying
his best year since his Super Bowl days with the Rams nearly a decade ago. His
quick release mostly allowed him to avoid sacks (the Cards ranked 7th best in
that category) and set the table for rapport with his dynamic trio of wideouts
(Larry Fitzgerald, the recently-controversial Anquan Boldin, and Steve
Breaston), each of whom gained more than 1000 receiving yards. And
Whisenhunt’s creative bent has been embraced by o.c. Todd Haley, who
has picked the right time to dip into the Cards’ bag of tricks (notably the fleaflicker
that resulted in a 62-yard Warner-to-Fitzgerald TD pass in the NFC
title win over the Eagles).
Meanwhile, the Big Red “D” has also stepped things up a notch in the
postseason, stunting and blitzing for underrated d.c. Clancy Pendergast and
forcing a whopping 12 TOs in playoff action. Plenty of playmakers have been
unleashed, including veteran SS Adrian Wilson, FS Antrel Rolle & rookie CB
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the 2ndary, and DT Darnell Dockett & LB
Karlos Dansby in an active front seven that has proven disruptive in the
postseason and which muted Carolina’s punishing ground attack in that
noteworthy playoff win at Charlotte.
There has been nothing fluky about the Cardinals’ playoff march, with the
wins vs. the favored Falcons, Panthers, and Eagles. To paraphrase the late
actor John Houseman from the old Smith Barney commercials, “The Cardinals
have gotten to the Super Bowl the old-fashioned way…they e-a-r-n-e-d it.”
LOOKING AT PITTSBURGH
The Steelers fought through a somewhat disjointed first two months, starting
the season 6-3 while combating injuries to QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Willie
Parker, starting RG Kendall Simmons, LT Marvel Smith, and promising rookie
RB Rashard Mendenhall. Moreover, Pittsburgh went into the season needing
to replace stalwart LG Alan Faneca (young veteran Chris Kemoeatu took over).
Because of the OL injuries and while the current starting five—LT Max Starks (a
converted RT who had lost his starting job), LG Kemoeatu, solid C Justin
Hartwig, new starting RG Darnell Stapleton, and emerging third-year RT Willie
Colon—was melding, Roethlisberger often took a beating (nine sacks in third
game at Philly), struggling through shoulder & back injuries and concussions.
Thus, the battered Roethlisberger garnered only 17 TD passes vs. 15 ints.,
while Parker (out 5 games; less than 100% in several others) totaled only 791
YR and 3.8 ypc. With the big QB instinctively prone to hold onto the ball extra
long in order to make plays, the Steelers gave up 49 sacks, 29th in the league.
However, the re-made OL reportedly began holding its own weekly film
sessions to cut down on its mistakes, and Roethlisberger began meeting the
“big uglies” for dinners to further improve chemistry. Backup RB Mewelde
Moore (588 YR) boosted his output. Parker gradually fought past his knee
injury. But while the offense was overcoming the injuries and changes, the
Steelers’ were able to rely on their intimidating, hard-hitting, and oftendeceptive
defense, orchestrated by d.c. and zone blitz guru Dick LeBeau (who
THE GOLD SHEET believes belongs in the Hall of Fame). That stubborn stop
unit finished first in yards, points & pass defense and was No. 2 in rush defense
and sacks. Tall CB Ike Taylor (6-2) became one of the best cover men in the
league, playmaking SS Troy Polamalu collected 7 ints., second-year OLB
LaMarr Woodley (11½ sacks) emerged as a major force, and OLB James
Harrison (16 sacks) was named the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year. Only
one team (Tennessee, with 323 yards) gained more than 300 yards vs. the 2008
Men of Steel all season.
With its offense carrying more of the load (28.5 ppg its last 8, despite frequent
marginal weather) later in the season, Pittsburgh closed with a rush, going 8-1
straight up (including the playoffs), 7-2 vs. the spread, with 6 of the 8 wins by 7
points or more. The Robert Frost-quoting Mike Tomlin, at 36, thus became the
youngest HC to reach the Super Bowl, carrying the torch for a once long-suffering
franchise that is now seeking to become the first in NFL history to win six Super Bowls.
One major concern is the sprained MCL suffered by go-to WR Hines Ward
(MVP of Super Bowl XL in Detroit), the team’s leader with 81 recs. and arguably
the league’s best blocker among wideouts.
SUPER BOWL XLIII
If we’ve learned anything from football playoff games over the years, it’s that
results of previous regular-season meetings are hardly foolproof indicators of
what might transpire in a postseason rematch. That’s especially true if the last
meeting between the teams occurred in a prior campaign. Nonetheless,
because of the unique dynamics involved between Pittsburgh and Arizona, a
brief revisit of 2007’s 21-14 Cardinal win Sept. 30 at Glendale is in order.
The Steelers entered that game hot, having scored 97 points in winning their
first 3 games in impressive fashion, but they were mostly held in check by the
Arizona defense that afternoon. Indeed, Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes
thought Whisenhunt’s familiarity with his old team proved a bonus for the Big
Red. “I think coach Whiz knew some of our weak points of our offense,” said
Holmes. “He was sending guys left and right, bringing pressure as much as he
could to try and disrupt our offense.” The Steelers’ usually robust infantry was
slowed to a crawl, Willie Parker gaining only 37 YR on 19 carries, while QB Ben
Roethlisberger tossed a pair of picks and was sacked 4 times. Meanwhile, Kurt
Warner came off the bench to relieve the ineffective Matt Leinart for Arizona,
with the vet QB leading a second-half comeback that was augmented by a 73-
yard punt return TD, courtesy of Steve Breaston. Arizona, with Edgerrin James
gaining 77 YR, outrushed Pittsburgh, while Card WR Larry Fitzgerald caught 10
passes despite being the focus of Steeler pass coverage while teammate
Anquan Boldin was out with an injury.
Thus, it’s apparent that Whisenhunt’s familiarity with his old Steeler troops
made the difference in the last meeting. That doesn’t mean a repeat
performance is in order; certainly, Pittsburgh is a different bunch than it was in
September of ‘07, now having two full seasons under HC Mike Tomlin. But the
Cards, deeper themselves into their coach’s new regime, are hardly the same
team they were last year, either.
They’re a lot better!
We acknowledged some of Arizona’s flaws in the foregoing column, but it’s
worth noting that Whisenhunt & Co. have had nearly a full season to make
adjustments, which is exactly what they’ve done in the postseason. Granted,
the robust Steel Curtain defense could prove an effective blockade. But the Big
Red have successfully balanced their offense in the playoffs, thanks to the reemergence of Edgerrin James. And Warner has dealt successfully with some
of the NFC’s best defenses in the postseason, with the Cards cracking the 30-
point barrier in each of their three playoff games. Indeed, it would be hard to
argue that the Steeler defense is playing any better than Philadelphia’s was
entering the NFC title game, but Warner & Co. jumped on the Eagles early and
had enough poise and presence to weather the desperate Philly rally, resolutely
driving 72 yards in 14 plays for the winning TD in the waning moments at Glendale.
Versus the Julius Peppers-led Carolina pass rush in the division round, and against
the variety of blitzes of Eagle d.c Jim Johnson in the NFC title game, Warner’s
savvy reads and quick release helped diffuse the best of pass rushes, even as it can
against Dick LeBeau’s patented zone blitzers. And no opposing secondary has
figured out a way to slow the rampant Fitzgerald in the postseason.
Forgive us for not being convinced that the 2008 Steeler offense is an
unstoppable machine like some of the old Pittsburgh Super Bowl teams, when
Terry Bradshaw was blessed with future Hall-of-Famers such as Franco Harris,
John Stallworth, and Lynn Swann as his primary weapons. The current Steeler
attack is far less lethal. Granted, Big Ben’s wherewithal is noteworthy, but his
pass protection remains suspect, and the various stunts and blitzes routinely
employed by Clancy Pendergast’s Cardinal defense are acknowledged as the
best way to disrupt Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh attack (which Whisenhunt
knows a thing or two about). Further, key wideout Hines Ward enters the week
at less than 100% due to his knee injury, and RB Parker has had to fight through
an injury-plagued campaign, rarely flashing his old form (the division round win
over San Diego, when Parker gained 146 YR, being one of the exceptions). And
no stop unit has been as opportunistic as Arizona’s in the postseason, forcing
12 big turnovers in three games.
As for the Big Red’s acknowledged shortcomings on the road (especially in
the eastern time zone) during the regular season, it can be argued the Cards
might have temporarily exorcized those demons with their runaway win at
Carolina, which boasted the only 8-0 home record during the regular season.
The dynamics of the Super Bowl, where the teams spend almost a week at the
game’s locale, are far different than a normal, hurried-up, regular-season road
trip, anyway. Besides, it should also be noted that Pittsburgh was not infallible
away from home this season, falling embarrassingly short in two of its toughest
tests away from Heinz Field—smothered by the Eagle defense in a 15-6 earlyseason
loss at the Linc, and outclassed decisively at Tennessee in a late-
December AFC showdown resulting in a 31-14 Titans win. Even the Steelers’
most notable road win was a controversial one, with Santonio Holmes’ disputed
TD catch the difference in a last-minute 13-9 escape at Baltimore. Hardly the
stuff that suggests a dominating Super Bowl performance, away from Heinz
Field, is in the offing.
We acknowledge the Steelers’ enviable qualities, especially their rock-ribbed
defense and ability to create momentum-changing plays, either with their stop
unit or special teams. Another “Troy Polamalu special” could indeed change
the course of this contest. And Big Ben (7-2 SU and vs. the spread in the
playoffs) has emerged as one of the better clutch QBs in the game. But we
suspect Pittsburgh is going to need some unorthodox scores to extend the
margin beyond the oddsmakers’ not-so-insignificant impost. If the Steelers
don’t get those special plays from their defense or on kick return units, we
believe they’re going to be in for a real fight.
One they might even lose.
TGS SCORE FORECAST: ARIZONA 27 - Pittsburgh 24
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Doug Williams
With the line moving slightly, I've got two picks -- depending on where the line is when you place your bets.
If the line is Pittsburgh -6.5, take the Steel Curtain as small faves, BUT if you can get action on the Cardinals at +7 or higher, put some faith in Warner, Fitzgerald and that crazy passing game.
Over/Under 46.5 -- Take the OVER. This game will be pushing up the total from the 1st Quarter. Even if you don't root for either of these teams, cheer for scores and pad your bankroll.
Happy Super Bowl Sunday!
<!-- / message -->
With the line moving slightly, I've got two picks -- depending on where the line is when you place your bets.
If the line is Pittsburgh -6.5, take the Steel Curtain as small faves, BUT if you can get action on the Cardinals at +7 or higher, put some faith in Warner, Fitzgerald and that crazy passing game.
Over/Under 46.5 -- Take the OVER. This game will be pushing up the total from the 1st Quarter. Even if you don't root for either of these teams, cheer for scores and pad your bankroll.
Happy Super Bowl Sunday!
<!-- / message -->
