Wynn sportsbook director Doug Castaneda
“I want to get away from -1 and get to -1.5 to avoid the push, but we’re not quite ready yet. Our big business is coming next week and don’t have any large wagers yet. Last year we got some early high volume action because of the number.”
“We have more tickets written on the game so far this year at the same juncture than we did last year, albeit the dollar amount per ticket written being much lower.”
The one area all bettors seemed unified with so far at all Nevada books is the total.
“The total stands out as the story so far. It’s lopsided on the over and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this getting as high as 56 which should present a lot of value for some taking the under.”
“I want to get away from -1 and get to -1.5 to avoid the push, but we’re not quite ready yet. Our big business is coming next week and don’t have any large wagers yet. Last year we got some early high volume action because of the number.”
“We have more tickets written on the game so far this year at the same juncture than we did last year, albeit the dollar amount per ticket written being much lower.”
The one area all bettors seemed unified with so far at all Nevada books is the total.
“The total stands out as the story so far. It’s lopsided on the over and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this getting as high as 56 which should present a lot of value for some taking the under.”
Randy Madayag, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage
Although the spread is stable at The Mirage and other MGM books in Vegas, the action is slanted.
“Right now, money is 3/1 on the Chiefs, and ticket count is a little short of 2/1. On the moneyline, we’re long on the Chiefs, too. We’d pick up about $80,000 on the 49ers.”
A good chunk of Chiefs liability stemmed from two bets early in the week: $55,000 on Kansas City -1 on Sunday night, and $150,000 on Kansas City moneyline -125.
The total ticked from 53.5 to 54 by Monday, and though that number stuck all week, it likely won’t last if the current betting trend persists.
“We’re 10/1 money on the over right now, and ticket count is about 7/1. The public loves it early, and I don’t expect anything different the next week.”
MGM is good to both the Niners and Chiefs in the futures book, with both sides a low-seven-figure winner. But as with the spread and moneyline, a San Francisco win is a better outcome for the house.
Although the spread is stable at The Mirage and other MGM books in Vegas, the action is slanted.
“Right now, money is 3/1 on the Chiefs, and ticket count is a little short of 2/1. On the moneyline, we’re long on the Chiefs, too. We’d pick up about $80,000 on the 49ers.”
A good chunk of Chiefs liability stemmed from two bets early in the week: $55,000 on Kansas City -1 on Sunday night, and $150,000 on Kansas City moneyline -125.
The total ticked from 53.5 to 54 by Monday, and though that number stuck all week, it likely won’t last if the current betting trend persists.
“We’re 10/1 money on the over right now, and ticket count is about 7/1. The public loves it early, and I don’t expect anything different the next week.”
MGM is good to both the Niners and Chiefs in the futures book, with both sides a low-seven-figure winner. But as with the spread and moneyline, a San Francisco win is a better outcome for the house.
Alan Berg, senior oddsmaker for Caesars Palace sportsbooks
“The public is on Kansas City spread and San Francisco moneyline. If the game started right now, we would win juice on either side, with a big win on Kansas City by 1.”
However, a much larger decision is building up on the total, which opened at 51 and reached 54.5 by Tuesday, where it remained through Sunday evening.
“We will likely need the Under for more than we need the side, unless someone comes in and bets a side for a giant number. Four times as many tickets and four times as much money on the Over.”
In the futures book, Caesars shops in Vegas and around the country are good to either side lifting the Lombardi Trophy.
“A decent win, but nothing to write home about. The 49ers are about 30 percent better than the Chiefs. We took a five-figure whack on Kansas City at +750 (to win the Super Bowl) just before Week 17, which is a lot of the discrepancy between the two sides.”
Indeed, if the Chiefs win next Sunday, that wager would net a six-figure payout for the bettor.
“The public is on Kansas City spread and San Francisco moneyline. If the game started right now, we would win juice on either side, with a big win on Kansas City by 1.”
However, a much larger decision is building up on the total, which opened at 51 and reached 54.5 by Tuesday, where it remained through Sunday evening.
“We will likely need the Under for more than we need the side, unless someone comes in and bets a side for a giant number. Four times as many tickets and four times as much money on the Over.”
In the futures book, Caesars shops in Vegas and around the country are good to either side lifting the Lombardi Trophy.
“A decent win, but nothing to write home about. The 49ers are about 30 percent better than the Chiefs. We took a five-figure whack on Kansas City at +750 (to win the Super Bowl) just before Week 17, which is a lot of the discrepancy between the two sides.”
Indeed, if the Chiefs win next Sunday, that wager would net a six-figure payout for the bettor.
Insights from multiple independent sportsbooks around Vegas, including Wynn Las Vegas, South Point, Circa Sports and Treasure Island
Though the spread has yet to move at Wynn Las Vegas, sportsbook director Doug Castaneda doesn’t expect Chiefs -1 to last much longer.
“There’s been no movement thus far, but I think it’s gonna go to 1.5 soon. I’m anticipating Chiefs play,” Castaneda said. “I don’t foresee this going back down to pick. If anything, it goes up to 1.5.”
Castaneda termed both teams “very good” for Wynn in the futures book, though San Fran is a little better. Coupled with his anticipation of the spread rising, it’s become clear which side Wynn needs, all the way around.
“I think we’ll be rooting for the Niners, but we may get to a number where I invite 49ers action,” he said, alluding to his desire move to Chiefs -1.5. “I’d like to beat Chiefs bettors to the punch and put a hook on the game and move that moneyline up.”
Currently, Kansas City is -120 and San Francisco even money on the moneyline. Wynn opened the total at 52 and within an hour was at 53, and the number has been at 54.5 for a week.
“I know a couple places off the Strip went to 55 and dropped back to 54.5 quickly,” Castaneda said. “So I’m not inclined to go to 55 yet, but I could see us at 56 come game day.”
At South Point, sportsbook director Chris Andrews opened the game pick ‘em, bounced between 1 and 1.5 early, then settled at 1.5 Saturday.
“It’s pretty good two-way action, but it looks like it’s starting to trend toward the Chiefs,” Andrews said, noting that along with spread money favoring K.C., the book took a $100,000 bet on Chiefs moneyline -115. “If it kicked off now, we’d need the 49ers. But we’ve got a long way to go.”
Andrews said the South Point got what it wanted in the futures book.
“We tried to make sure these were the two teams we had better outcomes on, and we succeeded,” he said.
Echoing the situation at many books, the South Point got hammered on the Over throughout last week, taking the total from 52.5 to 55 by Saturday, before ticking back to 54.5 momentarily Monday night, then right back to 55.
“They’re finally starting to bet Under 55 now. We’re definitely looking to take more on the Under,” Andrews said. “Fifty-five looks like the tipping point, but I could be wrong. I’m letting the money dictate where I go.”
Circa also opened the spread at pick on Jan. 19 and hit Chiefs -1.5 within a half-hour, then going back to -1 within two hours. It’s stuck there ever since.
“We saw the majority of our Chiefs money at -1, but not enough to move off that number,” Circa Sports operations manager Jeff Benson said, before addressing a total that opened at 51.5 and reached 54.5 Sunday. “Solid action on the Over to drive that up. It’s not a huge decision yet, but I’m sure we’ll need the Under. The decision on the side is probably five times the decision on the total.”
Mirroring several other books, Circa is in good shape to K.C. and San Fran in the futures market, but one is certainly better than the other.
“We need the Niners for the futures book and for the game, as well,” Benson said. “But that decision could change tomorrow or even in the next hour, given our limits.”
Indeed, Circa has limits of $500,000 on the spread, $200,000 on the moneyline and $100,000 on the total, at the counter at the D Las Vegas and Golden Gate books downtown, as well as on the mobile app.
Back on the Strip at Treasure Island, the line opened Chiefs -1.5, spent about 24 hours at -1, then returned to -1.5 Wednesday. However, unlike other spots, it’s not K.C. spread action carrying the day just yet.
“The ticket count is about 2/1 for the 49ers, and the money is about 5.5/1 on the 49ers,” TI sportsbook director Tony Nevill said. “My power rankings came up with the Chiefs -2.5, so it won’t surprise me if they start betting the Chiefs. It feels like the number must be close to right at this point, because we’re not getting lopsided square or sharp action. Nobody’s coming in saying, ‘How much will you take?’”
In a recurring theme, the 49ers are a better outcome to Treasure Island’s futures book, though Nevill said either side is a winner for the house. The total moved from the opener of 53 up to 55 by lunchtime Monday, with the Under a rising need.
“Everybody is on the Over,” Nevill said, noting the predictable pattern of the public, particularly for the Super Bowl. “They’ll bet San Fran and Over or Kansas City and Over.”
Though the spread has yet to move at Wynn Las Vegas, sportsbook director Doug Castaneda doesn’t expect Chiefs -1 to last much longer.
“There’s been no movement thus far, but I think it’s gonna go to 1.5 soon. I’m anticipating Chiefs play,” Castaneda said. “I don’t foresee this going back down to pick. If anything, it goes up to 1.5.”
Castaneda termed both teams “very good” for Wynn in the futures book, though San Fran is a little better. Coupled with his anticipation of the spread rising, it’s become clear which side Wynn needs, all the way around.
“I think we’ll be rooting for the Niners, but we may get to a number where I invite 49ers action,” he said, alluding to his desire move to Chiefs -1.5. “I’d like to beat Chiefs bettors to the punch and put a hook on the game and move that moneyline up.”
Currently, Kansas City is -120 and San Francisco even money on the moneyline. Wynn opened the total at 52 and within an hour was at 53, and the number has been at 54.5 for a week.
“I know a couple places off the Strip went to 55 and dropped back to 54.5 quickly,” Castaneda said. “So I’m not inclined to go to 55 yet, but I could see us at 56 come game day.”
At South Point, sportsbook director Chris Andrews opened the game pick ‘em, bounced between 1 and 1.5 early, then settled at 1.5 Saturday.
“It’s pretty good two-way action, but it looks like it’s starting to trend toward the Chiefs,” Andrews said, noting that along with spread money favoring K.C., the book took a $100,000 bet on Chiefs moneyline -115. “If it kicked off now, we’d need the 49ers. But we’ve got a long way to go.”
Andrews said the South Point got what it wanted in the futures book.
“We tried to make sure these were the two teams we had better outcomes on, and we succeeded,” he said.
Echoing the situation at many books, the South Point got hammered on the Over throughout last week, taking the total from 52.5 to 55 by Saturday, before ticking back to 54.5 momentarily Monday night, then right back to 55.
“They’re finally starting to bet Under 55 now. We’re definitely looking to take more on the Under,” Andrews said. “Fifty-five looks like the tipping point, but I could be wrong. I’m letting the money dictate where I go.”
Circa also opened the spread at pick on Jan. 19 and hit Chiefs -1.5 within a half-hour, then going back to -1 within two hours. It’s stuck there ever since.
“We saw the majority of our Chiefs money at -1, but not enough to move off that number,” Circa Sports operations manager Jeff Benson said, before addressing a total that opened at 51.5 and reached 54.5 Sunday. “Solid action on the Over to drive that up. It’s not a huge decision yet, but I’m sure we’ll need the Under. The decision on the side is probably five times the decision on the total.”
Mirroring several other books, Circa is in good shape to K.C. and San Fran in the futures market, but one is certainly better than the other.
“We need the Niners for the futures book and for the game, as well,” Benson said. “But that decision could change tomorrow or even in the next hour, given our limits.”
Indeed, Circa has limits of $500,000 on the spread, $200,000 on the moneyline and $100,000 on the total, at the counter at the D Las Vegas and Golden Gate books downtown, as well as on the mobile app.
Back on the Strip at Treasure Island, the line opened Chiefs -1.5, spent about 24 hours at -1, then returned to -1.5 Wednesday. However, unlike other spots, it’s not K.C. spread action carrying the day just yet.
“The ticket count is about 2/1 for the 49ers, and the money is about 5.5/1 on the 49ers,” TI sportsbook director Tony Nevill said. “My power rankings came up with the Chiefs -2.5, so it won’t surprise me if they start betting the Chiefs. It feels like the number must be close to right at this point, because we’re not getting lopsided square or sharp action. Nobody’s coming in saying, ‘How much will you take?’”
In a recurring theme, the 49ers are a better outcome to Treasure Island’s futures book, though Nevill said either side is a winner for the house. The total moved from the opener of 53 up to 55 by lunchtime Monday, with the Under a rising need.
“Everybody is on the Over,” Nevill said, noting the predictable pattern of the public, particularly for the Super Bowl. “They’ll bet San Fran and Over or Kansas City and Over.”
