MTI 5-star
5-Star Cowboys at Rams UNDER 51.5 The last time the Rams won as an underdog was in the playoffs of the 2017 season, beating the Saints 26-23 in overtime. Teams that were winless as a dog the previous season have been strong UNDER plays as a dog in week one. Specifically, week one dogs that were winless as a dog the previous season are 0-12 OU when they did not make the playoffs and won at least one game. The SDQL text is:
week = 1 and D and tpS(W@D)=0 and PRSW>0 and tpS(playoffs=1)=0
This system has one active date in 2018. The Cowboys qualified and the final score in that game was 16-8 - it was 10-0 after three-quarters. There was also one active date in 2019. The Packers qualified and the final there was 10-3.
The way to win as a dog is to not make mistakes. We expect a conservative approach from the Rams in a game that is likely to be decided by turnovers. Last season, the Rams played three home games in which the line was within three points of pickem. All three went UNDER and the average OU margin was minus 15 points.
Similarly, Dallas is 0-7 OU on the road on Sunday when the line is within three points of pickem. The SDQL is a straightforward:
team=Cowboys and A and -3<= line <=3 and day = Sunday and date >= 20171200
What is most impressive about this one is that Dallas last three games in this spot have stayed under by 23.5 points, 24.0 points and 20.5 points. Wow.
The play is the UNDER, as each team should wait for the other to make a mistake.
MTis FORECAST: Cowboys 20 Rams 17
5-Star Cowboys at Rams UNDER 51.5 The last time the Rams won as an underdog was in the playoffs of the 2017 season, beating the Saints 26-23 in overtime. Teams that were winless as a dog the previous season have been strong UNDER plays as a dog in week one. Specifically, week one dogs that were winless as a dog the previous season are 0-12 OU when they did not make the playoffs and won at least one game. The SDQL text is:
week = 1 and D and tpS(W@D)=0 and PRSW>0 and tpS(playoffs=1)=0
This system has one active date in 2018. The Cowboys qualified and the final score in that game was 16-8 - it was 10-0 after three-quarters. There was also one active date in 2019. The Packers qualified and the final there was 10-3.
The way to win as a dog is to not make mistakes. We expect a conservative approach from the Rams in a game that is likely to be decided by turnovers. Last season, the Rams played three home games in which the line was within three points of pickem. All three went UNDER and the average OU margin was minus 15 points.
Similarly, Dallas is 0-7 OU on the road on Sunday when the line is within three points of pickem. The SDQL is a straightforward:
team=Cowboys and A and -3<= line <=3 and day = Sunday and date >= 20171200
What is most impressive about this one is that Dallas last three games in this spot have stayed under by 23.5 points, 24.0 points and 20.5 points. Wow.
The play is the UNDER, as each team should wait for the other to make a mistake.
MTis FORECAST: Cowboys 20 Rams 17
NFL(BOB BALFE)
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #459
Raiders -3 over Panthers
Ron Rivera is gone at head coach and the Panthers will start the Matt Rhule era today.Rhule was a coach at Baylor last year and this is his first NFL game as head The Panthers will also start Teddy Bridgewater at QB.Bridgewater will learn a new system with first year OC Joe Brady who is just 30 years old.This team is going to once again depend on Christian McCaffery at running back and depend on his ability to catch the ball as well.The Panthers will have new guards on the offensive line as the welcome John Miller for Cincinnati and Dennis Daley is out with an ankle injury.This offensive line also welcomes Russell Okung from the Chargers.Simply put I think this offense struggles today.The Raiders have a new home in the city of Las Vegas, but it’s still the same team with their coaching staff in place from the last few years. This offense returns their entire offensive line and defensively really have made great improvements.This is a complete football team and should win on the road today.Take the Raiders.
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #459
Raiders -3 over Panthers
Ron Rivera is gone at head coach and the Panthers will start the Matt Rhule era today.Rhule was a coach at Baylor last year and this is his first NFL game as head The Panthers will also start Teddy Bridgewater at QB.Bridgewater will learn a new system with first year OC Joe Brady who is just 30 years old.This team is going to once again depend on Christian McCaffery at running back and depend on his ability to catch the ball as well.The Panthers will have new guards on the offensive line as the welcome John Miller for Cincinnati and Dennis Daley is out with an ankle injury.This offensive line also welcomes Russell Okung from the Chargers.Simply put I think this offense struggles today.The Raiders have a new home in the city of Las Vegas, but it’s still the same team with their coaching staff in place from the last few years. This offense returns their entire offensive line and defensively really have made great improvements.This is a complete football team and should win on the road today.Take the Raiders.
Victor King
3* Football Shootout
Bucs-Saints over
In Week One action of the 2002 NFL Season, our Totals Team is going to be going UNDER in most if our games. Except this one. I fact, this Bucs @ Saints game will be our ONLY ‘Over’ of the entire opening weekend. The OU line for this NFC South Division game opened at 49.5 points. As we type our writeup on Monday afternoon, the line has not moved. It still stands squarely at 49.5. Make sure you get your action in before it rises into the low 50’s. This Saints / Bucs series comes in on a recent OVER run. Four of the last five meetings have gone Over the Total (4-1 O/U). Average OU line: 49.9… Average combined points: 58.2… Average OU margin: +8.3 points per game….
In my article for the recent September issue of the PLAYBOOK ADVANTAGE, I did a database study on some of the recent OU tendencies in same-division play. And this is the only particular division in which the OVER has been profitable as of late. In the last two seasons, NFC SOUTH Division games have gone 12-2 O/U when (a) the home teams is FAVORED (like the SAINTS), and (b) the OU Line is 60 or less points…
All we are asking for in this one is for history to repeat itself. Like it does numerous times when we are querying in our database. For instance, New Orleans has been one the most reliable HOME ‘Over’ teams in all of football. In the last four years, New Orleans home games have averaged 60.5 combined points, 52.6, 59.8, and 51.3. The SAINTS have gone 9-1 O/U since 2013 as division home favorites when the OU line is 51 or less points (including a perfect 6- 0 O/U last 3 years). And to start off the season, our Totals Tipsheet newsletter reveals that New Orleans’ GAME ONES have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U in the last six seasons, with a gaudy average of 64.3 combined points per game. On the flip side, all sharp OU bettors know how strong Tampa OVERS were last season. They were the #1 Over team in all of football. In fact, The Bucs’ last 10 same-CONFERENCE games went a perfect 10-0 O/U to close the year (62.0 combined points per game). In the last three seasons, Buccaneer ROAD games have been ‘All About the OVER’. TAMPA has gone 18-5-1 O/U on the ROAD in there last 3 years, including 8-1 O/U when the OU line is 48 or more points. Average OU margin in these games: +18.1!
Three separate Game One queries ALL point to a higher-than-anticipated final score. The first one looks at same-conference game with HIGH Over / Under lines (like this one).
(1) 9-1 O/U since 2012 / 5-0 O/U since 2014: All NFC Conferece GAME ONE favs of > 3 pts when the OU Line is a HIGH > 48 points (SAINTS are -3.65 OU is 49.5)…
The next query looks at each team’s win totals from last season.
(2) 16-5-1 O/U since 2000 / 8-0 O/U since 2010: All GAME OINE favorites of 6 < pts who WON 13 or more games last year (SAINTS) versus any opponent two WON 7 or less games last year (BUCCANEERS). Average OU margin in these games: +9.2 ppg…
The final Week One query looks at any teams playing with the motivation of division REVENGE. New Orleans who both meetings against Tampa Bay last season (31-24 and 34-17).
(3) 11-1 O/U since 2011: All GAME ONE same-DIVISION underdogs of > 3 pts playing with REVENGE, when the OU line is > 38 points (BUCCANEERS)…
I ran one more query for NFL games in the first month of the season with a (relatively) HIGH Over / Under line. This one seals the deal for us.
20-8-1 O/U last 7 years (71% Overs): All games in the FIRST month of the season (GAMES 1-4) when (a) the OU Line is in the range of 48 to 52 points (BUCS @ SAINTS), and (b) the pointspread in the game is < 1 point. In same-DIVISION play, the results of this query improve to 8-1 O/U 89% Overs).
3* Football Shootout
Bucs-Saints over
In Week One action of the 2002 NFL Season, our Totals Team is going to be going UNDER in most if our games. Except this one. I fact, this Bucs @ Saints game will be our ONLY ‘Over’ of the entire opening weekend. The OU line for this NFC South Division game opened at 49.5 points. As we type our writeup on Monday afternoon, the line has not moved. It still stands squarely at 49.5. Make sure you get your action in before it rises into the low 50’s. This Saints / Bucs series comes in on a recent OVER run. Four of the last five meetings have gone Over the Total (4-1 O/U). Average OU line: 49.9… Average combined points: 58.2… Average OU margin: +8.3 points per game….
In my article for the recent September issue of the PLAYBOOK ADVANTAGE, I did a database study on some of the recent OU tendencies in same-division play. And this is the only particular division in which the OVER has been profitable as of late. In the last two seasons, NFC SOUTH Division games have gone 12-2 O/U when (a) the home teams is FAVORED (like the SAINTS), and (b) the OU Line is 60 or less points…
All we are asking for in this one is for history to repeat itself. Like it does numerous times when we are querying in our database. For instance, New Orleans has been one the most reliable HOME ‘Over’ teams in all of football. In the last four years, New Orleans home games have averaged 60.5 combined points, 52.6, 59.8, and 51.3. The SAINTS have gone 9-1 O/U since 2013 as division home favorites when the OU line is 51 or less points (including a perfect 6- 0 O/U last 3 years). And to start off the season, our Totals Tipsheet newsletter reveals that New Orleans’ GAME ONES have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U in the last six seasons, with a gaudy average of 64.3 combined points per game. On the flip side, all sharp OU bettors know how strong Tampa OVERS were last season. They were the #1 Over team in all of football. In fact, The Bucs’ last 10 same-CONFERENCE games went a perfect 10-0 O/U to close the year (62.0 combined points per game). In the last three seasons, Buccaneer ROAD games have been ‘All About the OVER’. TAMPA has gone 18-5-1 O/U on the ROAD in there last 3 years, including 8-1 O/U when the OU line is 48 or more points. Average OU margin in these games: +18.1!
Three separate Game One queries ALL point to a higher-than-anticipated final score. The first one looks at same-conference game with HIGH Over / Under lines (like this one).
(1) 9-1 O/U since 2012 / 5-0 O/U since 2014: All NFC Conferece GAME ONE favs of > 3 pts when the OU Line is a HIGH > 48 points (SAINTS are -3.65 OU is 49.5)…
The next query looks at each team’s win totals from last season.
(2) 16-5-1 O/U since 2000 / 8-0 O/U since 2010: All GAME OINE favorites of 6 < pts who WON 13 or more games last year (SAINTS) versus any opponent two WON 7 or less games last year (BUCCANEERS). Average OU margin in these games: +9.2 ppg…
The final Week One query looks at any teams playing with the motivation of division REVENGE. New Orleans who both meetings against Tampa Bay last season (31-24 and 34-17).
(3) 11-1 O/U since 2011: All GAME ONE same-DIVISION underdogs of > 3 pts playing with REVENGE, when the OU line is > 38 points (BUCCANEERS)…
I ran one more query for NFL games in the first month of the season with a (relatively) HIGH Over / Under line. This one seals the deal for us.
20-8-1 O/U last 7 years (71% Overs): All games in the FIRST month of the season (GAMES 1-4) when (a) the OU Line is in the range of 48 to 52 points (BUCS @ SAINTS), and (b) the pointspread in the game is < 1 point. In same-DIVISION play, the results of this query improve to 8-1 O/U 89% Overs).
