Sunday 8/9/2020 Comps/Bonus Plays,Trends, Betting Info, Etc

[bmd1803]

Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the Texas Rangers w/Lynn +105 over LA Angels

 

[bmd1803]

MLB public betting, line movement for August 9
Patrick Everson

Shane Bieber and the Indians take on the AL Central rival White Sox in prime time on Sunday night. Caesars sportsbooks made Cleveland a -132 favorite, with host Chicago +122.

MLB betting odds have hit the board for Sunday’s games and are getting early notice from bettors. Among the highlights is an AL Central prime-time battle between Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox, with Shane Bieber taking the ball for Cleveland.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s contests.

MLB line movement

Bieber is nearly untouchable so far in this 60-game shortened season, throwing 21 2-3 innings and posting a 0.83 ERA while winning his first three starts. The Indians are -132 favorites against the +122 host White Sox, who send out Lucas Giolito (1-1, 5.17 ERA) for a 7:08 p.m. ET first pitch.

The Oakland Athletics are 11-4 and are the only AL West team above .500, and the A’s are looking to sweep a three-game set from the defending AL champion Houston Astros. Caesars opened Oakland a -153 favorite and the Astros +143 for a 4:10 p.m. ET start.

Walker Buehler takes the ball for the Los Angeles Dodgers in a 4:10 p.m. ET contest with the visiting San Francisco Giants. Not surprisingly, Los Angeles is a hefty favorite of -320 at Caesars books, with San Francisco +270.

MLB public betting

Considering Bieber’s numbers, the Consensus is closer than you might expect for the Cleveland-White Sox tilt. Cleveland was landing 59 percent of picks by late Saturday night.

Not surprisingly, the Dodgers were drawing 74 percent of early picks against the Giants. And the underdog Astros were netting 60 percent of early picks against the A’s.

 

[bmd1803]

951BALTIMORE -952 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 83-48 SU (33.8 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

953ATLANTA -954 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 51-69 SU (-30.1 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the last 3 seasons.

955NY YANKEES -956 TAMPA BAY
NY YANKEES are 93-60 SU (33.5 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons.

957MIAMI -958 NY METS
MIAMI is 2-9 SU (-7.9 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games in the last 3 seasons.

959DETROIT -960 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 19-39 SU (-26.4 Units) in home games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

961TORONTO -962 BOSTON
BOSTON is 12-33 SU (-22.8 Units) in home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game over the last 2 seasons.

963MINNESOTA -964 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 46-34 SU (8.6 Units) in home games against division opponents in the last 3 seasons.

965CLEVELAND -966 CHI WHITE SOX
CLEVELAND is 64-42 SU (19.6 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

967CINCINNATI -968 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 19-8 SU (11 Units) vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons.

969LA ANGELS -970 TEXAS
LA ANGELS are 21-40 SU (-24.2 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better over the last 2 seasons.

971COLORADO -972 SEATTLE
COLORADO is 56-67 SU (-33.9 Units) in road games vs. a team with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.20 or worse since 1996.

973SAN FRANCISCO -974 LA DODGERS
SAN FRANCISCO is 42-26 SU (13.4 Units) in road games as an underdog of +200 or more since 1996.

975ARIZONA -976 SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 16-5 SU (10.5 Units) in home games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

977HOUSTON -978 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 12-4 SU (7.6 Units) in home games in August games over the last 2 seasons.

981ATLANTA -982 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 51-69 SU (-30.1 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the last 3 seasons.

 

[bmd1803]

MLB
Dunkel

Sunday, August 9

Baltimore @ Washington

Game 951-952
August 9, 2020 @ 12:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
(Wojchwski) 18.553
Washington
(Strasburg) 14.633
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 4
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-220
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(+190); Under

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Game 953-954
August 9, 2020 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(TBD) 15.717
Philadelphia
(TBD) 17.538
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
N/A

Miami @ NY Mets

Game 957-958
August 9, 2020 @ 1:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Lopez) 17.429
NY Mets
(deGrom) 16.352
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-250
7
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+200); Under

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay

Game 955-956
August 9, 2020 @ 1:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Paxton) 15.774
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 16.748
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-110
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-110); Under

Toronto @ Boston

Game 961-962
August 9, 2020 @ 1:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Shoemaker) 15.299
Boston
(Eovaldi) 16.399
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-155
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-155); Over

Detroit @ Pittsburgh

Game 959-960
August 9, 2020 @ 1:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
(Turnbull) 15.703
Pittsburgh
(Brault) 12.839
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
-115
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-105); Under

Minnesota @ Kansas City

Game 963-964
August 9, 2020 @ 2:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
(Berrios) 14.990
Kansas City
(Singer) 16.163
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-170
9
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+150); Over

Cincinnati @ Milwaukee

Game 967-968
August 9, 2020 @ 2:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(Gray) 15.630
Milwaukee
(Woodruff) 14.112
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-120
8
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+100); Under

LA Angels @ Texas

Game 969-970
August 9, 2020 @ 2:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Angels
(Heaney) 14.293
Texas
(Lynn) 15.734
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Angels
-135
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas
(+115); Under

Houston @ Oakland

Game 977-978
August 9, 2020 @ 4:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Javier) 14.795
Oakland
(Luzardo) 17.193
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-150
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-150); Over

San Francisco @ LA Dodgers

Game 973-974
August 9, 2020 @ 4:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Gausman) 17.618
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 16.597
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-300
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+250); Over

Colorado @ Seattle

Game 971-972
August 9, 2020 @ 4:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Marquez) 16.645
Seattle
(Sheffield) 17.730
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-170
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+150); Under

Arizona @ San Diego

Game 975-976
August 9, 2020 @ 4:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
(Bmgrner) 16.466
San Diego
(Lamet) 15.338
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
-160
8
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+140); Under

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Game 981-982
August 9, 2020 @ 4:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Fried) 17.462
Philadelphia
(TBD) 16.308
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
N/A

Cleveland @ Chicago White Sox

Game 965-966
August 9, 2020 @ 7:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
(Bieber) 17.160
Chicago White Sox
(Giolito) 14.335
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
-130
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-130); Over

 

[bmd1803]

MLB

Sunday, August 9

National League
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Braves (9-6):
Fried is 2-0, 2.04 in three starts this year; he is 1-2, 5.47 in nine games (3 starts) vs Philly.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-0 Team in first 5 innings: 2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-3 Totals: under 2-1

Ynoa is making his first MLB start; he allowed six runs in three IP in two relief stints LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Braves won seven of their last ten games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Phillies (4-4):
Velasquez allowed four runs in three IP (60 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 1-6, 5.20 in 11 starts vs Atlanta.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0

Bullpen game for the Phillies.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Philly split its first eight games.
— Under is 5-2-1 in their games.

Miami @ New York
Marlins (7-2):
Lopez allowed two hits in five shutout innings in his first ’20 start; he is 2-1, 6.75 in three starts against the Mets.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: 0-0-1

— Miami won six of its last seven games.
— Under is 6-3 in their games.

Mets (6-9)
deGrom is 1-0, 2.12 in three starts this year, 9-7, 3.26 in 22 starts vs Miami, 5-1, 2.37 in six starts LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-1 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-3 Totals: over 2-1

— Mets lost seven of their last ten games.
— Under is 5-3 in their last seven games.

Cincinnati @ Milwaukee
Reds (7-8):
Gray is 3-0, 2.41 in three starts this year, 2-1, 2.29 in six starts vs Milwaukee.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-0 Team in first 5 innings: 2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: 1-1-1

— Cincinnati lost three of its last five games.
— Five of Reds’ last seven games stayed under the total.

Brewers (5-7):
Woodruff is 1-1, 2.08 in three starts this year, 2-2, 4.58 in five games (3 starts) vs Cincinnati.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-2 Team in first 5 innings: 2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-3 Totals: under 3-0

— Milwaukee is 5-7 in its first 11 games; they’re 0-4 at home.
— Under is 7-5 in their games.

Arizona @ San Diego
Diamondbacks (6-9):
Bumgarner is 0-2, 7.63 in three starts this year, 13-11, 3.43 in 36 starts vs San Diego, 0-1, 4.76 LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-3 Team in first 5 innings: 0-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: over 3-0

— Arizona lost five of its last nine games.
— Under is 6-1 in their last seven road games.

Padres (8-6)
Lamet is 1-0, 2.30 in three starts this year, 1-1, 9.45 in three starts vs Arizona.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-1 Team in first 5 innings: 3-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-3 Totals: under 2-1

— San Diego lost five of its last seven games.
— Over is 6-4 in their last ten games.

San Francisco @ Los Angeles
Giants (7-9):
Gausman is 0-1, 6.52 in two starts this season.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-2 Team in first 5 innings: 0-2
Allowed run in first inning: 1-2 Totals: 1-1

— Giants lost five of their last seven games.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight road games.

Dodgers (10-5)
Buehler is 0-0, 5.19 in two starts this year, 4-0, 2.96 in six games (4 starts) vs SF.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-1 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-2 Totals: 1-1

— Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
— Under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 games.

American League
New York @ Tampa Bay
Bronx (10-5):
Paxton allowed eight runs in four IP in two starts this year; he is 3-1, 3.19 in five starts vs Tampa Bay.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-2
Allowed run in first inning: 1-2 Totals: over 2-0

— Bronx lost four of its last six games.
— Under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.

Rays (7-8):
Morton is 1-0, 2.53 in his last two starts; he is 4-2, 3.97 in eight starts vs Bronx.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-3 Totals: over 2-1

— Tampa Bay lost six of its last nine games.
— Rays are 7-3 at home.
— Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

Toronto @ Boston
Blue Jays (5-7):
Shoemaker is 0-1, 5.91 in two starts this year, 3-1, 3.00 in four games (3 starts) vs Boston.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-2 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-2 Totals: 1-1

— Blue Jays lost five of their last seven games.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— Toronto has been on the road this whole time; they don’t play in Buffalo until Tuesday.

Red Sox (5-9):
Eovaldi is 1-1, 3.78 in three starts this year, 1-1, 4.22 in six games (5 starts) vs Toronto.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-1 Team in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: over 2-1

— Red Sox lost five of their last seven games.
— Boston lost five of its seven home games .
— Under is 7-1 in their last eight games.

Minnesota @ Kansas City
Twins (10-5)
Berrios is 1-1, 2.45 in his last two starts; he is 3-2, 4.29 in 13 starts vs KC.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-1 Team in first 5 innings: 2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: over 2-1

— Twins won six of their last nine games.
— Under is 9-3 in their last 12 games.

Royals (6-10):
Singer is 0-1, 4.80 in his first three MLB starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1-2
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: under 2-1

— Royals lost six of their last nine games.
— Over is 4-2 their last six home games .

Cleveland @ Chicago
Indians (9-7):
Bieber is 3-0, 0.83 in three starts this year, 2-2, 3.08 in six starts vs Chicago.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-0 Team in first 5 innings: 21
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: under 3-0

— Cleveland won four of its last five games.
— Under is 14-2 in Indian games this season.

White Sox (8-7):
Giolito is 1-0, 1.50 in his last two starts; he is 2-2, 2.56 in five starts vs Cleveland.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: under 2-1

— Chicago won seven of its last ten games.
— White Sox are 2-5 at home this season.
— Over is 4-3 in their home games .

Anaheim @ Texas
Angels (5-10):
Heaney is 1-0, 2.53 in his last two starts; he is 2-3, 4.82 in 10 starts vs Texas.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-2 Team in first 5 innings: 2-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-3 Totals: over 2-1

— Angels are 3-7 in their last ten games.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight road games.

Rangers (5-8):
Lynn is 1-0, 0.49 in three starts (18.1 IP) this year; he is 2-2, 3.96 in six starts against the Angels.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-1 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-3 Totals: under 2-1

— Texas lost five of its last eight games (over 5-3).
— Rangers are 4-3 in their new home stadium (under 6-1).

Houston @ Oakland
Astros (6-8):
Javier is 1-0, 1.54 in his first two MLB starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-1 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0-1
Allowed run in first inning:0-2 Totals: 1-1

— Astros lost their last four games.
— Over is 4-2-2 in their last eight games.
— Houston is 1-5 in games where winning run scores from 7th inning on.

A’s (11-4):
Luzardo allowed two hits in five shutout innings in his first ’20 start.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Oakland won its last eight games.
— Under is 7-3 in their last ten games .

Interleague
Baltimore @ Washington
Orioles (7-7):
Wojciechowski is 0-2, 6.30 in two starts this year; he is 0-2, 4.96 in four games (2 starts) vs Washington.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-2 Team in first 5 innings: 0-2
Allowed run in first inning: 2-2 Totals: 1-1

— Orioles lost four of their last six games.
— Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

Nationals (4-7):
Strasburg is making his first ’20 start; he is 1-0, 4.00 in three starts vs Baltimore.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Washington lost its last three games.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— Nationals still haven’t played a road game.

Detroit @ Pittsburgh
Tigers (7-5):
Turnbull is 1-0, 2.45 in two starts this year; he allowed one unearned run in his only start vs Pittsburgh.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-2 Totals: under 1-0-1

— Detroit Won its last two games., scoring 26 runs.
— Under is 4-2-2 in their last eight games.

Pirates (3-12):
Brault threw five shutout innings in two starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-2 Totals: 1-1

— Pirates lost nine of their last ten games.
— Under is 5-4-1 in their last ten games.

Colorado @ Seattle
Rockies (10-3):
Marquez is 2-1, 1.89 in three starts this year; he allowed one run in six IP in his one start vs Seattle.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-1 Team in first 5 innings: 2-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: under 3-0

— Rockies won nine of their last 11 games.
— Colorado won four of five road games.
— Under is 4-1 in Colorado road games.

Mariners (5-10):
Sheffield is 0-2, 10.80 in two starts (6.2 IP) this year; Seattle was outscored 21-3 in the two games.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-2 Team in first 5 innings: 0-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-02 Totals: over 2-0

— Seattle lost seven of its last eight games.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

 

[bmd1803]

MLB

Sunday, August 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore @ Washington
Baltimore
Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Yankees is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Tampa Bay is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home

Miami @ NY Mets
Miami
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Mets
NY Mets is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Miami
NY Mets is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Miami

Detroit @ Pittsburgh
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Pittsburgh's last 23 games when playing Detroit

Toronto @ Boston
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Boston
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing Toronto

Minnesota @ Kansas City
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Kansas City is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Cincinnati @ Milwaukee
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Milwaukee's last 23 games at home

LA Angels @ Texas
LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Angels's last 7 games when playing Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games on the road
Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games when playing LA Angels

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

San Francisco @ LA Dodgers
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
LA Dodgers is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco

Houston @ Oakland
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Arizona @ San Diego
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

Colorado @ Seattle
Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Seattle's last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games

Cleveland @ Chi White Sox
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games

 

[bmd1803]

NBA public betting, line movement for August 9
Patrick Everson

Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers face a tough Sunday test against the 76ers inside the NBA Bubble in Orlando. FanDuel Sportsbook opened Portland a 2-point favorite and moved to -2.5.

NBA betting odds are posted and drawing dollars for a full Sunday in the NBA Bubble, with seven games on the docket. Among the key contests: the Philadelphia 76ers take on the Portland Trail Blazers, who are making a push for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

The Blazers have a short turnaround, coming off a tough 122-117 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday where Portland was outscored 12-2 over the final 1:39 of the fourth quarter. Still, FanDuel Sportsbook opened the Blazers as two-point favorites and moved them to -2.5 late Saturday night for a 6:30 p.m. ET tipoff.

In what might serve as an elimination game for the loser, the San Antonio Spurs meet the New Orleans Pelicans as both try to find a way into the Western Conference playoffs. FanDuel opened Zion Williamson and the Pelicans -3 and stuck there Saturday night for a 3 p.m. ET meeting.

And in the 9 p.m. ET nightcap, the Clippers can strengthen their grip on the West’s No. 2 seed with a win over the Brooklyn Nets. Los Angeles opened 13-point chalk at FanDuel and ticked to -12.5 overnight.

NBA public betting

Consensus indicates the public has no aversion to taking the Trail Blazers on a back-to-back, with Portland landing 73 percent of early picks against the 76ers. The Spurs are drawing 63 percent of Consensus picks against the Pelicans.

 

[bmd1803]

723WASHINGTON -724 OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) on Sunday games in the current season.

727SAN ANTONIO -728 NEW ORLEANS
SAN ANTONIO is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games in the last 3 seasons.

729ORLANDO -730 BOSTON
BOSTON is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after a blowout win by 20 points or more in the current season.

731PHILADELPHIA -732 PORTLAND
PHILADELPHIA is 13-33 ATS (-23.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins in the last 3 seasons.

733HOUSTON -734 SACRAMENTO
SACRAMENTO is 14-1 ATS (12.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

 

[bmd1803]

NBA
Dunkel

Sunday, August 9

Washington @ Oklahoma City

Game 723-724
August 9, 2020 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
105.624
Oklahoma City
122.843
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 17
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 9
224 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-9); Under

Memphis @ Toronto

Game 725-726
August 9, 2020 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
121.462
Toronto
119.890
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 1 1/2
225
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 7
222
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+7); Over

San Antonio @ New Orleans

Game 727-728
August 9, 2020 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
118.475
New Orleans
116.043
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 2 1/2
232
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
240
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(+3); Under

Orlando @ Boston

Game 729-730
August 9, 2020 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
116.385
Boston
126.006
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 9 1/2
232
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 6 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-6 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Portland

Game 731-732
August 9, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
120.292
Portland
118.681
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
238
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 2
229
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+2); Over

Houston @ Sacramento

Game 733-734
August 9, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
118.315
Sacramento
116.196
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5
231 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(+5); Under

Brooklyn @ LA Clippers

Game 735-736
August 9, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brooklyn
117.767
LA Clippers
125.817
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 8
234
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 12 1/2
231 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+12 1/2); Over

 

[bmd1803]

NBA

Sunday, August 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington @ Oklahoma City
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Washington's last 21 games on the road
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games

Memphis @ Toronto
Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Memphis's last 16 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Memphis's last 12 games
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Memphis

San Antonio @ New Orleans
San Antonio
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games
New Orleans is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against San Antonio

Orlando @ Boston
Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Orlando's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Orlando's last 17 games
Boston
Boston is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Orlando
Boston is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Orlando

Philadelphia @ Portland
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Portland
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games

Houston @ Sacramento
Houston
Houston is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games when playing Sacramento
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games at home

Brooklyn @ LA Clippers
Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Brooklyn's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
LA Clippers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Brooklyn

 

[bmd1803]

WNBA
Dunkel

Sunday, August 9

Minnesota @ Los Angeles

Game 647-648
August 9, 2020 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
108.432
Los Angeles
115.946
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 7 1/2
161
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
N/A

Las Vegas @ New York

Game 643-644
August 9, 2020 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
119.700
New York
95.221
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Las Vegas
by 24 1/2
175
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Las Vegas
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Las Vegas
N/A

Washington @ Indiana

Game 645-646
August 9, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
109.582
Indiana
113.018
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 3 1/2
165
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
N/A

 

[bmd1803]

WNBA

Sunday, August 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Las Vegas @ New York
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games when playing New York
New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games when playing at home against Las Vegas

Washington @ Indiana
Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana
Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing Washington

Minnesota @ Los Angeles
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota

 

[bmd1803]

NHL public betting, line movement for August 9
Patrick Everson

Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs needed a Game 4 miracle to stay alive in their best-of-five qualifying round series against the Blue Jackets. Now, Toronto is a -150 favorite for Sunday's Game 5.

NHL betting odds are up for another slimmed-down schedule, as the 24-team original bubble field gets whittled down to 16. There are two round-robin matchups Sunday, but more important, a Game 5 between the eighth-seeded Toronto Maple Leafs and ninth-seeded Columbus Blue Jackets in the Eastern Conference qualifying round.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on NHL opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s contests.

NHL line movement

The Maple Leafs needed an incredible effort late in Game 4 to reach Sunday’s 8 p.m. ET winner-take-all game. Trailing 3-0, Toronto scored three goals in the final four minutes, then won 4-3 on a goal 13 minutes into overtime. Caesars opened the Maple Leafs -150 favorites, with the Blue Jackets at +135.

In an Eastern Conference seeding game, the Boston Bruins opened -125 to the Washington Capitals’ +110 in a noon ET puck drop. And the St. Louis Blues are -135 to the Dallas Stars’ +120 in a Western Conference seeding game with a 3 p.m. ET start.

There was no line movement in any of those games at Caesars books by late Saturday night.

NHL public betting

Consensus provides a window into how the public is betting, and the early lean is on the Maple Leafs, playing in the “home” bubble in Toronto. The Leafs were landing 59 percent of picks vs. the Blue Jackets.

The Capitals were getting 62 percent of picks against the Bruins, and the Blues were the biggest Consensus play, drawing 70 percent of picks against the Stars.

 

[bmd1803]

21COLUMBUS -22 TORONTO
COLUMBUS are 70-56 ATS (15.9 Units) against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game over the last 2 seasons.

23DALLAS -24 ST LOUIS
DALLAS are 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.

31BOSTON -32 WASHINGTON
BOSTON is 26-13 ATS (13.3 Units) in road games against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

 

[bmd1803]

NHL
Dunkel

Sunday, August 9

Boston @ Washington

Game 31-32
August 9, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
12.402
Washington
10.564
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-135
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-135); Under

Dallas @ St. Louis

Game 23-24
August 9, 2020 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
11.906
St. Louis
10.808
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-140
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+120); Over

Columbus @ Toronto

Game 21-22
August 9, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Columbus
10.659
Toronto
12.180
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-145
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-145); Under

 

[bmd1803]

NHL
Long Sheet

Sunday, August 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLUMBUS (34-24-0-16, 84 pts.) at TORONTO (39-26-0-9, 87 pts.) - 8/9/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBUS is 9-2 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
COLUMBUS is 12-5 ATS (+17.0 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 39-35 ATS (+80.8 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 2-7 ATS (-10.8 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 164-162 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
TORONTO is 79-115 ATS (-37.7 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.
TORONTO is 44-37 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 20-20 ATS (-16.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 7-5-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.7 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (37-26-0-8, 82 pts.) vs. ST LOUIS (42-21-0-10, 94 pts.) - 8/9/2020, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-11 ATS (-11.0 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 59-40 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 34-22 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 268-179 ATS (+54.8 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
DALLAS is 239-166 ATS (+35.3 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
DALLAS is 232-253 ATS (+537.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 1-10 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 11-10-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
10 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.2 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (44-16-0-12, 100 pts.) vs. WASHINGTON (41-21-0-9, 91 pts.) - 8/9/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 29-14 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 35-18 ATS (+54.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 29-11 ATS (+15.0 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 43-32 ATS (+0.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 26-19 ATS (+47.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 227-252 ATS (+534.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 7-2 (+5.3 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-2-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)

 

[ConleyPicks]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga/Del Mar Wagering Strategies - 8/9/20

---

August 9, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga/Del Mar
Sunday, August 9, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*
Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:

Second Race – Post Time: 2:30 PT
3-Heywoods Beach (3-1)

Exits a strong edition of the Oceanside Stakes and this drop to the first-level allowance ranks combined with a much better post should allow the J. Sadler-trained colt to regain his winning form. Ran better then line shows when forced to lose ground without cover from a poor draw in the Oceanside, but with the addition of blinkers the son of Speightstown projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli, he’s listed at 3-1 on the morning line and will offer good value in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single at or near that price.

*
Tenth Race – Post Time: 6:30 PT
6 – Smooth Like Strait (5/2)

Projects as the controlling speed in this year’s edition of the La Jolla Handicap and given that type of trip the M. McCarthy-trained colt should be very difficult to catch. A stakes winner over this turf course as a 2-year-old and fresh from a highly-rated score in the War Chant Stakes at Churchill Downs in the May, the son of Midnight Lute has looked sharp in a series of recent easy dirt drills to have him fit and ready. He switches to top turf rider U. Rispoli and likely will continue his improving pattern. We’ll use him as a win play and a key in our rolling exotics at or near his morning line of 5/2.


*
*
Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies:

RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: C-
Use: 2-Stoney Bennett; 3-We Should Talk

Forecast: The main players in today’s opener – a $12,500 claiming sprint – have question marks, though it would hardly be surprising to see them run one-two. Stoney Bennett, second off a long layoff for L. Rice but plummeting in class after a sharp runner-up effort in an optional/starter’s allowance sprint at Laurel Park in June, certainly is fast enough to beat this field but the veteran gelding had been off for more than a year prior to his last start, so his current physical condition is suspect. We Should Talk, claimed in four of his last five starts, returned to the R. Atras barn when haltered for $12,500 in February but has been away since then. If he returns as well as he left the Gemologist gelding, first or second in nine of 21 career starts, clearly will be the one to fear most. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Seasons

Forecast: Seasons is a first-timer by Tapit from Winter Memories and has trained like a good thing for J. J. Toner. A bullet recent workout around dogs on grass (4f, :48.3, fastest of 11) was visually quite pleasing (view workout), so in a juvenile maiden two-turner on turf for fillies that didn’t come up particularly strong, she appears well-placed to win at first asking. Listed at 9/5 on the morning line but likely to go lower, she can be used as a logical rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Say Moi; 4-Critical Value

Forecast: Say Moi shows rising speed figures with each outing and earned a huge number when second to Spice Is Nice while more than seven lengths clear of the rest in a hot allowance race at Belmont Park last month. The Union Rags filly retains J. Rosario, shows a recent bullet recent workout (4f, :48.1b, fastest of 83) and seems likely to be the controlling speed. However, there’s really not much we can do with her at even money on the morning line. As a saver in your rolling exotics you may want to consider the progressive Bodemeister filly Critical Value, a sharp state-bred stakes winner over seven furlongs in her sophomore debut in late June. She’s nowhere near as fast on pure numbers as ‘Moi but projects to enjoy a good stalking trip and appears to have room for further improvement.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Lightfoot Miss; 6-Saratoga Commando; 7-Fouette

Forecast: This looks like a pretty good maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies and we expect that it will take a nice sort to win it. Saratoga Commando has been impressive in the a.m. with a series of sharp, breezing drills and is bred to win early (Majesticperfection). The C. Brown-trained filly acts like she has plenty of early speed but hasn’t been allowed to show it. Fouette, a $400,000 yearling filly by Nyquist, is comfortably drawn outside for the powerful S. Asmussen/R. Santana, Jr. team and at 9/5 on the morning line is the likely choice and one to beat. A bullet gate drill (5f, :59 flat, fastest of 26) over the Saratoga main track last month jumps off the page. Lightfoot Miss is a W. Mott first-timer by Violence and has done everything asked of her in the morning. The workout times aren’t fast, but a :47 3/5 gate drill last month (third fastest of 70) indicates she has plenty of ability, and at 6-1 on the morning line she’s certainly worth including somewhere on your ticket.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Ms Boombastic

Forecast: Ms Boombastic finally makes it to the races in August of her 3-year-old season and does so in a middle distance turf event for older maiden fillies and mares that didn’t come up particularly strong. A $125,000 auction purchase at the 2019 OBS March Sale, where she previewed in :21 seconds and looked terrific doing it, the daughter of Mr Speaker has worked smoothly for W. Mott without being asked for speed while looking plenty fit and ready for a big effort first time out. Certainly bred to run long on the lawn, she’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line and will offer plenty of wagering value at or near that price both in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 6: Post 4:07 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Secondary Market; 6-Primacy; 8-Palio Flag; 8-Pop a Choc

Forecast: Here’s a much better than par first level allowance sprint for fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Several of these appear on their way to bigger and better things. Pop a Choc turned back to a sprint for the first time, switched to dirt, and demolished a fairly representative maiden field from the rail last month at Belmont Park while earning speed figure that makes her tough right back. Drawn comfortably outside and appearing the type that can win on the lead or from a stalking position, the daughter of Bernardini retains Johnny V., wo can choose his spot depending upon how the race flow develops. Primacy crushed a maiden field in June at Belmont Park with a career top figure and while there wasn’t a whole lot behind her the daughter of Union Rags did it the right way and certainly should be capable of better if needed. A strong, healthy work tab since that race indicates the C. Brown-trained filly is right on edge. The other C. Brown entrant, Secondary Market, is a “must use” as well at 6-1 on the morning line.. When last seen 11 months ago the daughter of Into Mischief was burying a good maiden field at Belmont Park with huge figure and her work tab on the comeback trail at Monmouth Park indicates she hasn’t lost a step. Palio Flag was a maiden debut winner at Keeneland last month in good style with a nice number, and as a daughter Curlin should continue to improve with experience and maturity. She has a good stalking style and is ideally suited for this extended sprint distance.
*
*
RACE 7: Post 4:43 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Aunt Nadine; 5-Mo Me Mo My

Forecast: Mo Me Mo My shows up in a seller for the first time, remove blinkers, switches to J. Rosario, and has back speed figures that are better than par for this level. The D. O’Neill-trained daughter of Uncle Mo exits a much stronger race and should greatly appreciate this softer assignment. Aunt Nadine ran well to be second in a similar restricted (nw-2) $40,000 turf sprint here last month in her first outing since vanning up from Gulfstream Park and in her first start since joining the S. Asmussen barn. The daughter of Uncle Mo has every right to produce a forward move and should settle into a comfortable second flight, stalking spot and have every chance when it counts. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a preference on top to Mo Me Mo My.
*
*
RACE 8: Post 5:17 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Venezuelan Rug; 3-Shamrocket; 8-City Man

Forecast: Let’s take a shot at a price in this stronger than par first-level allowance affair restricted to 3-year-olds over nine furlongs on the inner turf course. Venezuelan Hugearned a big number two runs back when winning a starter optional claimer from Givemetwenty, who came out of that race to win a similar event and then yesterday captured the $100,000 Not Surprising S. at Gulfstream Park. In his most recent outing, the son of Constitution had a dreadful trip while every wide without cover in a race won by Decorated Invader and wasn’t knocked about through the lane when the cause was lost. From his good rail draw and with a series of sharp local drills to have him ready to bounce back, the D. Gargan-trained colt retains L. Saez and may be good enough to pull off a surprise at 6-1 on the morning line. City Man is a major player after finishing fourth but beaten less than a length in the Transylvania S.-G3 at Keeneland last month. The C. Clement-trained colt returns to the allowance ranks today and has enough tactical speed to be positioned wherever regular rider J. Rosario wants him to be. Shamrocket, the “other” C. Clement entrant, is a legitimate contender based on speed figures,. He continues to improve with every outing and with another forward may be hard to contain in the final furlong.
*
*
RACE 9: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Endorsed; 4-Its All Relevant

Forecast: Endorsed was in too tough when a respectable seventh in the Met Mile but before that was an excellent runner-up to Code of Honor in the Westchester S.-G3 while six clear of the rest when earning a triple-digit Beyer speed figure. Stakes-placed over this track and distance last year, the W. Mott-trained colt looks every bit the 7/5 that he is on the morning line and should be capable of producing a winning late bid. Its All Relevant is the controlling speed and if not policed will take this field a very long way. A winner of 12 of 27 starts and never sharper since being claimed for $32,000 by Rudy last December, the veteran Hard Spun gelding has speed figures that make him a threat, so at 6-1 on the morning line you probably should include him as a saver or a backup.
*
*
RACE 10: Post 6:22 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Imperio D; 8-Brunate

Forecast: The finale is a modest maiden claiming New York-bred sprint with not much depth. The logical contenders are Imperio D and Brunate, the two-three finishers in a similar affair here last month, with a neck separating the pair at the wire. Brunate may have bit more improvement in him so we’ll give him a slight edge on top in a race that we’re not planning to get too involved in. Both can be used in your rolling exotics.
*

 

[bmd1803]

NHL

Sunday, August 9

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Trend Report
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Boston @ Washington
Boston
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home
Washington is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing Boston

Dallas @ St. Louis
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

Columbus @ Toronto
Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Columbus's last 5 games on the road
Columbus is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games

 

[ConleyPicks]

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Saratoga Mandatory Empire 6 Ticket Sunday

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August 9, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Sunday is a Empire 6 mandatory payout day at Saratoga, and while I normally get after the Late Pick 4, I’m willing to jump into the big pool.

Of course, no one would expect it to be an easy proposition, and it certainly is not. Below is a suggested $86.50 ticket on the Empire 6, which goes in 20-cent increments. For those who follow weekly on the Late Pick 4, the same numbers lining up in races 7 through 10 run $36 on the 50-cent Pick 4 minimum, so that option as well.

The Empire 6 goes in races 5-10 and the featured event is the $85,000 Alydar Stakes, which brings out a field of veterans, most notably Endorsed, Bodexpress and Tenfold. Here’s a look at the Empire 6 races:

Race 5 (3:28 p.m. ET, maidens)

The opening leg comes down to WINDFALL PROFIT and BASTET.
WINDFALL PROFIT had the misfortune of losing photos in his last two and he could get his break today. BASTET finished with interest going seven after faltering on the front end of his first one. He apparently learned a lot in his return and continued improvement could be enough.


Race 6 (4:07 p.m. ET, allowance)

Chad Brown having a pair of strong of runners in the same race seems as right as rain in New York, but an “outsider” could have a hand in the outcome.

Brown’s promising runners SECONDARY MARKET and PRIMACY will battle it out with Michael Trombetta-trained ESCAPE FUND for top honors here, and ii might not be easy.

ESCAPE FUND had a professional debut as he waited patiently until being asked, and when that happened, she was on his own in the final furlong. She scored by four lengths in that six-furlong race and there’s nothing that says she can’t be just as deadly going 6.5 furlongs.

SECONDARY has been off since last September, but we’ve seen that before: Long layoffs are not a problem in this stable. She romped going this distance in a maiden win at Belmont and has trained well for her return. Stablemate PRIMACY took three starts to break her maiden and she’ll attempt to parlay that Belmont win into Saratoga success.


Race 7 (4:43 p.m. ET, claiming)

A trio of runners rate the edge in turf sprint, and AUNT NADINE’s improvement in her first over the grass makes for a great opportunity here. She can from just off the pace and finished second. It was her first attempt for the Steve Asmussen barn after running for Jorge Navarro.

MO ME MO MY tired in her first at Saratoga after shipping in from Santa Anita. She’s been in some difficult races and should improve with this step down in class. SUMMER FORTUNE showed speed in all three starts and goes to the turf for the first time. Gets some class relief and fits well with these.


Race 8 (5:17 p.m. ET, allowance)

The fourth leg has the most runners on the ticket as four runners look good enough to warrant attention.

SHAMROCKET just missed at this distance last time after breaking his maiden going longer and is a serious threat at this distance in his second against winners.

MR JAGGERS broke his maiden at this distance and has another opportunity to be close up throughout.

BUY ME CANDY didn’t fire last out but his best gives him a chance here. Another with an opportunity to stay closer from the beginning.

CITY MAN closed well for fourth in the G3 Transylvania at Keeneland. Has enough speed to overcome his post and stay in range.


Race 9 (5:50 p.m. ET, Alydar Stakes)

The Alydar drew a decent field overall, but three of these are accustomed to races with larger purses.

BODEXPRESS ran fifth in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational and most recently was third in the G3 Hal’s Hope. He should be able to get some confidence back as he should get on the lead or very close to it. Has the class to be a strong player, as do TENFOLD and ENDORSED.

TENFOLD is a bit Jekyll-Hyde in his ways as he has run close to some of the best but has lost to some he should’ve defeated. He has picked up his game a bit this year as he was sixth in the Pegasus, fourth in the G2 New Orleans Classic and third in the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He’s plenty good enough to show his late run in this spot.
ENDORSED has run some good races and was in the mix for three-quarters before tiring in the G1 Met Mile. He has shown the ability to adjust to pace on occasion and hold his own in this event.


Race 10 (6:22 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)

IMPERIO D and BRUNATE rate the edge in this maiden-claiming event to end the day.

IMPERIO D comes off his best effort as he took the lead and was caught late. A similar try over this surface gives him a legit chance.

BRUNATE was on the board in his last two and finished a neck IMPERIO D. If you like IMPERIO D, you have to like this one.

Saratoga Empire 6:
5) #5 Windfall Profit, #6 Bastet.
6) #1 Escape Fund, #5 Secondary Market, #6 Primacy.
7) #4 Aunt Nadine, #5 Mo Me Mo My, #10 Summer Fortune.
8) #3 Shamrocket, #5 Mr Jaggers, #7 Buy Me Candy, #8 City Man.
9) #1 Endorsed, #5 Bodexpress, #6 Tenfold.
10) #1 Imperio D, #8 Brunate.
20-cent Empire 6: 5-6 with 1-5-6 with 4-5-10 with 3-5-7-8 with 1-5-6 with 1-8. ($86.40).

 

[bmd1803]

JIMMY BOYD

PGA | Aug 09, 2020
Bernd Wiesberger vs. MIKE LORENZO
1* Free Pick on MIKE LORENZO VERA +115