Sunday 5/28/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE COKIN

RANGERS AT BLUE JAYS
PLAY: BLUE JAYS -157

No fear about going against Andrew Cashner, who has what I would call a hugely misleading ERA. There’s nothing to suggest this will continue and I expect a substantial regression from Cashner. The biggest issue is a horrendous 5.0/4.2 BB/K ratio.

The Blue Jays will send Joe Biagini, who has struggled in his last two starts after two very good efforts upon entering the rotation. But Biagini seems to be a different pitcher at home, and I would expect some improvement today.

I think there’s a pitcher advantage on the Toronto side, but what I like more here is the team momentum variable. The Jays are a different team both mentally and physically now that Donaldson and Tulowitzki have returned from lengthy disabled list stints. It’s an intangible that I think you can actually see, as this team simply has more confidence and energy with two big cogs back in action.

Steep price on this one, so rather than risk the full unit just on the money line, I’m going to split the wager between the money line and the runs line in expectation of another Blue Jays victory.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alex Smart
May 28 '17, 4:10 PM in 6h
MLB | CHC vs LAD
Play on: OVER 6½ +117

Cubs LH Jon Lester (3-2, 3.19 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (7-2, 2.01)

Today we have a matchup, where the pundits expect a low scoring pitcher duel. But In my humble betting opinion it will not be a low enough scoring game for the combined score not to eclipse the posted number.

John Lester the Cubs starting pitcher today vs the host LA Dodgers is considered a top tier pitcher, but away from Wrigely Field this season he has struggled mightily , going 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in four road starts. With the Dodgers offense, doing their best work at home averaging 5.4 rpg, I will not be surprised if they reach the 5 to 6 run output in this spot, thus making the over a decent bet based on my projection. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw, and all his greatness, goes to the hill to face a desperate Cubs team, that is itching to score runs after two consecutive shutouts. I know Kershaw is in great form, but the defending World Series Champs have done their best work vs southpaws this season, scoring an average of 5.8 rpg, including 17 HRs in 13 trys and must not be underestimated in their ability to do at least some damage here today. With that said, I am recommending we wager on the OVER.

CHICAGO CUBS are 21-9 OVER L/30 in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last few seasons with a combined average of 9.7 rpg going on the board and are 17-9 OVER vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 9.7 rpg getting scored. LESTER i in 18 career games in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season has seen a combined average of 8.1 rpg scored.

Over is 6-1 in Lesters last 7 starts overall.Over is 22-6-1 in Cubs last 29 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 3-0-1 in Lesters last 4 road starts.Over is 6-1 in Kershaws last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 10-4 in Dodgers last 14 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Play OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness

New York at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh

The Mets won 8-1 on Friday night but the Pirates erased a pair of two-run deficits to even the three-game series with a 5-4 victory in 10 innings Saturday night. John Jaso supplied a pinch-hit RBI single in the ninth to force extra innings and then delivered the game-winning RBI in the 10th to cap the walk-off victory. The Pirates lost six in a row from May 7-12 but have now won nine of their last 14. The Mets know something about losing streaks as well, dropping seven straight from May 10-17. They are just 4-4 since that slide and at 20-27, find themselves 9 1/2 back of the Nats in the NL East.

The pitching matchup features Matt Harvey (3-3, 5.36 ERA) vs Tyler Glasnow (2-3, 6.69 ERA). Harvey continues to struggle in an effort to return to the form he showed when earning the starting assignment for the 2013 All-Star Game at Citi Field in his first full season with the Mets. He did end a six-start winless drought in his last start and will now be looking for back-to-back victories for the first time since winning his first two outings of the season. Although he recorded a victory his last time out by limiting San Diego to two runs on three hits over five innings, Harvey has failed to pitch beyond 5.1 innings in five consecutive starts. He's 0-1 with a 5.29 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh (Mets are 0-3). Tyler Glasnow has permitted three runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, but he failed to pitch beyond five innings in four of them. Glasnow has also struggled at home in 2017, posting a 6.00 ERA and 1.62 WIP but the Piartes are actually 3-2 in his home starts.

New York's starters aren't giving them enough innings, leaving the bullpen overworked. Starters Noah Syndergaard (right lat muscle injury) and Steven Matz (left elbow inflammation) are out with no set return date and then we have Harvey. In his All-Star season of 2013 he allowed seven HRs homers and 31 walks in 178.1 innings. He takes the mound tonight having allowed 11 HRs and 26 walks in just 50.1 innings in 2017. I'll take the home team.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers

Cubs vs Dodgers
Pick: Over 6.5

The set-up: The defending champs have come to LA and been shut out in the first two of this three-game series with the Dodgers, losing 4-0 on Friday and 5-0 on Saturday. Chicago had won seven of nine before visiting Dodger Stadium and now find themselves (along with the Cards), a half-game back of the Brewers in the NL Central at 25-23. As for the Dodgers, they have now won three straight and eight of their last 10 to move to 30-20. That includes a sparkling 20-8 home mark and LA opens Sunday a half-game back of Arizona and 1 1/2 games behind the Rockies in the NL West, a division they have won each of the last four seasons.

The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (3-2 & 3.19 ERA) gets the ball for the Cubs and Clayton Kershaw (7-2 & 2.01 ERA) for the Dodgers. Lester is coming off an outstanding performance against San Francisco on Tuesday, a four-hitter in which he struck out 10 and allowed one run. It was the second straight strong outing the veteran lefty but he has struggled away from Wrigley Field, going 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in four road starts (team is 1-3). Lester is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA in eight career starts against the Dodgers (teams are 5-3), including a no-decision earlier this season in which he gave up one run and four hits while striking out seven over six innings. Kershaw was also outstanding on Tuesday, as he struck out 10 while allowing one run and three hits over nine innings but settling for a no-decision as the Dodgers needed extra innings (13) to beat the Cards, 2-1. He has posted eight straight quality starts and recorded nine in his 10 outings this season. Kershaw is 6-4 with a 2.33 ERA in 10 career starts against the Cubs (LA is 6-4).

The pick: A Lester vs. Kershaw matchup is "as good as it gets" but don't be too quick to say "under." After all, Lester's struggled on the road this season (5.73 ERA & 1.91 WHIP!) and LA has averaged 5.39 RPG here at Chavez Ravine.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sports

Atlanta vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco

Without question, the Giants have been one of baseball's biggest disappointments thus far in 2017. All yesterday's win did was snap a four-game losing streak and they're still second to last in the NL West w/ the 2nd worst run differential (-68) in the entire Senior Circuit. But w/ Johnny Cueto pitching this afternoon against Atlanta, they should be able to make it B2B wins for the 1st time in over a week.

Cueto's numbers to this point hardly indicate dominance. Last time out, he allowed 3 HR's in a loss to the Cubs (wind was clearly blowing out that day). But he does sport a 36-7 KW ratio in May. Note that he'd allowed only 2 HR's his previous four turns to the Cubs start. While the Giants have a terrible record on the road (9-19), they are now over .500 at home following yday's win.

Remember that Atlanta is w/o its best hitter, Freddie Freeman, for the forseeable future. Speaking of the home run ball, today's starter R.A. Dickey has been plagued by it throughout his career. Having already given up 11 in nine starts, the knuckleballer is well on his way to a sixth straight season allowing 24 or more. He's winless over his last four starts and has a 1.80 WHIP over the last three. In May, he has more walks (15) than strikeouts (12).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Sunday, May 28


Big night for home teams and Unders in the big leagues Saturday night. MLB home sides were 12-4 and Under was 14-2. Unders 58-34-4 (63%) L7 days

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MMA OddsBreaker

Cirkunov v Oezdemir
Pick: Over 1.5

I think this light heavyweight bout is closer than the betting odds indicate, however I am not moved to pull the trigger on Oezdemir. I do see this as a dog or pass situation, but I am going to ultimately make a pass on playing the underdog, and instead make a play on the Total here. I like the Over 1.5 rounds at -115, as I think there is a good chance this 205-pound contest hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision. I think the line for the Over 1.5 rounds total should be -180, so I think there’s good value in the current offering price. Cirkunov is coming off a first round submission of Nikita Krylov, while Oezdemir is coming off a split decision win over Ovince St. Preux. Both 205-pounders will be looking to keep their records unblemished heading into this matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Al

San Diego vs. Washington
Pick: Washington

The Nats might be the best team in the N.L. right now, with a record of 30-18 (the Rockies are actually slightly better, record-wise). Thus, anything less than a series sweep against the Padres would be considered a disappointment. San Diego is a team in total disarray right now, so even with the back-end of the Nats rotation heading to the mound today in the form of RHP Joe Ross, this game still looks like a mismatch. And the truth is that were Ross in San Diego - a place where his brother Tyson pitched for three years - he might be the #2 or #3 starter at worst. Ross threw a gem his last time out right here at Nats Park, dismantling the Mariners with eight innings of one-run, five-hit ball on the way to a lopsided 10-1 final. He will look to make it two in a row this afternoon, and should get it, as the Nats are 6-1 in Ross's last seven home starts and they are 13-3 in their last 16 home starts vs. teams with a losing record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicappers Hub
May 28 '17, 1:35 PM in 3h
MLB | Reds vs Phillies
Play on: Reds -115 at 5Dimes

Feldman has been solid for the Reds this season and I really like him against the cold Phillies lineup and love the Reds to keep hitting the ball against Eflin and get the road win

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd
May 28 '17, 1:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Royals vs Indians
Play on: Royals +127 at GTBets

Free Pick on Royals +

I really like the value here with the Royals as a decently priced road dog against the Indians. Kansas City has taken the first two games of the series and are in a great spot to finish off the sweep with their ace Danny Duffy on the mound. Duffy has a 2.92 ERA and 1.268 WHIP in 10 starts overall, but has been absolutely dealing of late with a 1.71 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in his last 3 starts.

The same can't be said for Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin, who has a 6.70 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in 9 starts. Tomlin has also struggled at home, 8.22 ERA and 1.739 WHIP in 5 starts (1-4 team record). Playing well at home against division foes has been a problem, as the Indians as a team are just 3-7 at home this season against the AL Central. Take Kansas City!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brandon Lee
May 28 '17, 2:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -115 at GTBets

10* FREE MLB PICK (Brewers -115)

Milwaukee was able to snap a 5-game losing streak with a 6-1 win over Arizona and their big ace in Greinke. I look for the Brewers to carry over that momentum here in the series finale. The offense should be able to keep it going, as Diamondbacks starter Pat Corbin has been awful on the road, where he's 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in 3 road starts. It's been an up and down year for Milwaukee starter Jimmy Nelson, but he's usually a solid bet to throw the ball well at home and he should be able to piggyback off the great outing by Anderson yesterday. Brewers are 11-2 this season after allowing 2 runs or less and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 when they come into a game with a team OBP of .285 or worse. Give me Milwaukee -115!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Davis
May 28 '17, 2:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Tigers vs White Sox
Play on: White Sox -102 at 5Dimes

I think the White Sox get the best of Detroit today. Tigers and Zimmermann are getting way to much respect. Detroit is just 2-6 their last 8 games.

Zimmermann has a 5.86 ERA on the season and has failed to win a game on the road right now in 4 starts with a similar ERA.

Miguel Gonzalez pitches his best at home with a 3.32 ERA this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Sunday Selection

New York Mets w/Harvey +101

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Kenny Towers

Ov 8.5 SD/Was - MLB -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Last Call

Early Sunday's Bonus Play: LA Dodgers - 166

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, May 28, 2017
05/28 2:10 PM EST MLB (925) TAMPA BAY RAYS VS (926) MINNESOTA TWINS.
Take: over the total.

Reason: Your free pick for Sunday, May 28, 2017 comes in baseball as Tampa Bay heads to Minnesota. Tampa Bay is #11 in baseball in runs scored. Starter Alex Cobb has been struggling and batters are hitting .271 off him on the road. Tampa Bay is 6-1 over the total on the road and the Over is 11-1 in Cobb's last 12 road starts. Minnesota is 46-13-2 over the total at home against a team with a losing road record. The over is 16-5 when these teams clash, including 20-7 over in this park. Play Tampa Bay/Minnesota Over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chip Chirimbes

Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -164

The Blue Jays have turned it around winning their last six and 10 of their last 13. The Blue Jays are 8-2 against the AL West while the Rangers are a lowly 8-18 on the road. Toronto has won 24 of the last 33 meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Vinciletti

Dodgers -160

The Cubs fit a negative system that is 377-764 and the Dodgers are in a 52-26 system. Kershaw goes for LA who has won 8 of his 10 starts and 7 of his last 8 home May starts. He is 4-1 at home vs the Cubs. There has been a loss of Luster from Lester as he is 1-3 with a 5.72 road Era this year. The Cubs are 2-6 on Sunday and 0-4 as a +140 or more road dog off a road game. Look for the Dodgers to take this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Rickenbach
May 28 '17, 4:10 PM in 5h
MLB | Cubs vs Dodgers
Play on: Cubs +158 at BMaker

Free Pick: MLB Chicago Cubs Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:10 ET - Neither team has been hitting in this series. Yes it is true that the Cubs have yet to score a run in this series. However, the Dodgers have outscored the Cubs 9-0 despite only outhitting them 11-5. I feel we've got some very solid underdog line value being offered here and I won't hesitate to back the Cubs. Jon Lester gets the start for Chicago and the lefty is known for pitching much better at home compared to on the road. However, he has good success at Dodger Stadium in his career and, in fact, Lester has a 2.45 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in the 8 starts he has made against the Dodgers in his career. The southpaw has held LA to just 1 earned run in each of his last 3 starts against them. Of course, Clayton Kershaw is an ace for the Dodgers and that's why this line is priced where it is. However, let's not forget that Kershaw gave up 4 earned runs in just 5 innings of work on 7 hits (including 2 homers) when he most recently faced the Cubs. That was in last year's post-season and certainly Kershaw would love to atone for that performance here. However, the Cubs also have some extra confidence at the plate for this afternoon's game as a result of beating Kershaw and the Dodgers 5-0 in that game. Off of rare back to back shutouts, I look for the Cubs to step up and get the upset win here at LA on Sunday to avoid the 3-game sweep. Even with yesterday's loss, the Cubs are still 3-1 this season (and 16-9 the last 3 seasons combined) when they are off of a shutout loss. The Cubs are also +$5,400 when facing left-handed starters the last 3 seasons combined while the Dodgers are -$18,200 against southpaw starters the past 3 seasons combined. The road dog is well worth the investment in this generous price range Sunday. Free Pick on Chicago Cubs on the money line. Best of luck, Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Jordan

My Bonus Play is on the Los Angeles Dodgers, on the run line, against the Chicago Cubs.

The Dodgers have now won three straight, while the Cubs continue to struggle this season.

MAKE NOTE: All Run Line/Total plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager. But with this game I am not concerned with who goes for either team tonight and want you playing this game on the Run Line regardless. That being said, IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be sure you have action even if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched, by re-wagering the game if that takes place.

The Dodgers are getting revenge from the postseason, after losing to Chicago in the National League Championship Series.

Los Angeles ranks 10th in the league with a .257 batting average, while the Cubs are hitting a meager .239 on the year.

Take the Dodgers on the run line.

2* DODGERS RUN LINE