Sunday
Ravens (7-5) @ Chiefs (10-2)— Baltimore is 3-0 with Jackson as QB, running ball for 238 ypg; they’re 3-3 SU on road and are 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven games as road underdogs. Ravens are #6 seed in AFC right now, only half-game behind Steelers in AFC North- they held last four opponents under 6 yards/pass attempt, tough to do vs KC. Chiefs are 8-4 vs spread in last dozen games as home favorite; they’re 5-0 at home, winning by 11-16-35-7-12 points. Road team won seven of last eight series games; Ravens won last three games in Arrowhead, by 10-23-3 points, with last visit here in ’12. KC gave up 455-443 yards in its last two games. Three of Chiefs’ last four games went over; under is 7-3 in last ten Raven games.
Colts (6-6) @ Texans (9-3)— Texans were 0-3 when they went to Indy and won 37-34 in OT in Week 4; they haven’t lost since, winning last nine games. Houston ran ball for 281/187 yards in last two games. Under O’Brien, Houston is 17-10-1 as home favorites, 3-3 this year- they covered five of last six games overall, three in row at home. In their last six games, Texans are +9 in TO’s. Colts won five of their last six games after a 1-5 start; they lost 6-0 in J’ville LW, running ball only 16 times while throwing 52 passes. Indy is 2-4 at home, 2-2 as AU; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine divisional road games. Houston won four of last six series games- teams split last eight meetings played here. Under is 2-0-1 in Indy’s last three games;
Panthers (6-6) @ Browns (4-7-1)— Carolina lost its last four games, then fired two defensive assistants on Monday; Panthers are 1-5 on road this year, and they trailed 17-0 in 3rd quarter in the one win. Carolina has only one takeaway (-7) in its last four games; they scored 31+ points in four of their six wins. Cleveland is 3-2-1 at home this year, 3-2 vs spread as home underdogs, after going 4-14-1 as home dogs the previous three years- they split four games since changing coaches. Browns are 4-0 when allowing 20 or fewer points, 0-71 when they don’t. Carolina won four of five series games, winning two of three visits here; Browns’ only win was 24-23 in 2010. Four of last six Carolina games went over total;
Falcons (4-8) @ Packers (4-7-1)— Two struggling outfits here. Philbin is interim coach for Packers’ offense than can’t blame McCarthy anymore. Since 2014, Green Bay is 19-11-2 as home faves, but 2-3 this year. Packers are just 8-35 on 3rd down their last three games, running ball for 48-82-98 yards; their defense has only three takeaways in their last six games (-1). Falcons lost their lost their last four games, scoring 17 ppg; they’re 0-6 this season scoring less than 20 points, 4-2 scoring more- they’re 1-4 on road, with only win 38-14 at Washington. Atlanta is 3-0 vs Green Bay last two years, scoring 33-44-34 points; all three games were in Atlanta. Home side won last five series games; Falcons lost 22-21/43-37 in last two visits here.
Saints (10-2) @ Buccaneers (5-7)— Last four years, Saints are 14-8 vs spread coming off a loss; they’re 16-6 vs spread in last 22 road games, 5-1 this year. NO was held to 10 points in Dallas LW, after averaging 37 ppg in first 11 games- they’re +9 in turnovers their last four games. Buccaneers won last two games (+7 TO ratio) after a 4-game skid; they were -25 in previous nine games. Bucs are 6-1 in last seven games as a home underdog. Tampa Bay beat Saints 48-40 in season opener in Superdome, with both teams throwing for 400+ yards; Bucs averaged 14.9 yards/pass attempt. Tampa Bay is 4-3 in last seven series games; Saints lost 16-11/31-24 in their last two visits here. Under is 5-2 in Saints’ last seven games, 3-1 in Bucs’ last four.
Jets (3-9) @ Bills (4-8)— Jets lost their last six games (1-5 vs spread); they were outscored 100-36 in 2nd half of those games. In their last four games, Jets’ offense has two TD’s on 44 drives- their DEFENSE has two TD’s in those games. Last three years, Gang Green is 5-11-2 vs spread as road underdogs, 2-4 this year. Bills lost five of last seven games but covered last three; Buffalo is favored for first time this year; since ’15, they’re 9-3-1 as a home favorite. Buffalo hammered Jets 41-10 in Swamp Stadium in Week 10, running for 212 yards, outgaining Jets 451-199, with a +2 TO ratio. Jets are 3-2 in last five series games, but lost four of last five visits here. Home side is 9-4 in last 13 series games. Six of Jets’ last nine games went over total.
Patriots (9-3) @ Dolphins (6-6)— Patriots (-6.5) crushed Miami 38-7 in Week 4, outgaining Fish 449-172, but New England lost four of its last five visits to Miami; home team won 10 of last 11 series games. Patriots are running away with AFC East, can clinch it here; they’re only 3-3 on road this year- their last four wins overall were all by 14+ points. NE is 14-7 in its last 21 games as road favorites, 3-3 this year. Dolphins have six takeaways (+4) in splitting two games since Tannehill came back; they’re 5-1 at home this year, with only loss 32-21 to Detroit. In three years under Gase, Dolphins are 7-3-1 as home underdogs. Last five Patriot games stayed under total; under is 3-0-1 in last four Miami games.
Giants (4-8) @ Redskins (6-6)— #3 QB Sanchez has short week to prepare for his first Redskin start, after McCoy broke his leg Monday. Sanchez has a 37-35 W-L record as a starter in the NFL- this is his first start since ’15 for Eagles. Washington lost four of its last five games; they are 3-3 SU at home this year, are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 gams as a home dog (2-0 this year). Giants are 3-1 since their bye (+7 in turnovers); they’re 2-4 SU on road- all six games were decided by 7 or fewer points. Big Blue is favored for only 2nd time this year (0-0-1); since 2012, they’re 6-8-1 as road faves. Last four Giants’ games, three of last four Washington games went over the total. Sanchez has been with Skins less than two weeks; how much of their playbook could he have mastered already?
Broncos (6-6) @ 49ers (2-10)— Kyle Shanahan coaches against team his dad won two Super Bowls for. Denver is 3-0 since its bye, with wins at Chargers/Bengals; they’re 21-11-1 in last 33 games as road favorites. Broncos have nine takeaways in last three games (+8); their last seven opponents stayed under their team total. 49ers lost nine of last ten games, covering once in last six tries; they’re -8 in turnovers in their last three games. SF is 2-3 SU at home, with losses by 10-29-4 points; they’re 5-9 in last 14 games as a home underdog, 0-1 this year. Niners are 5-3 in last eight series games; this is Denver’s first trip to Santa Clara- their last visit to SF was in 2002. Last five Denver games, four of last six 49er games stayed under total.
Bengals (5-7) @ Chargers (9-3)— Chargers won eight of last nine games, are only game behind Chiefs in AFC West- they scored 45-33 points (9 TD’s on last 19 drives) in winning last couple games. Chargers play KC next week; will they look ahead? Since moving to the soccer stadium in Carson, LA is 5-6 vs spread as a home favorite. Driskel was 25-38/236 in his first NFL start LW, a 24-10 home loss to Denver; newly acquired Savage is his backup. Cincy lost four in row, six of last seven games; four of their last five losses are by 14+ points. Bengals won four of last five series games, with the one loss a ’13 playoff game; Cincy won three of last four visits to San Diego. Four of last five Cincy games went over total; over is 7-4-1 in Charger games.
Lions (4-8) @ Cardinals (3-9)— Wow, not much to choose from here. Detroit lost five of its last six games; they’re 1-4 SU on road, with only win 32-21 in Miami. Lions are 7-10-1 vs spread in last 18 games as road favorites, 1-0 this year. Cardinals lost three of last four games, are 6-4 vs spread in last ten; they’re 1-5 SU at home- since 2013, Redbirds are 10-5-1 as home underdogs, 3-1 this year. In their last six games, Arizona is minus-10 in turnovers. Cardinals stayed under their team total in five of their last six games. Arizona won seven of last eight series games, losing 35-23 in Detroit LY. Lions lost their last eight visits here, with last win in 1993. Five of last six Detroit games stayed under total; under is 4-2 in Arizona home games.
Eagles (6-6) @ Cowboys (7-5)— Cowboys (+7) won first meeting 27-20 in Philly in Week 10, running for 171 yards; Eagles won four of their last five visits to Dallas. Road side won nine of last 11 series games- teams split series the last five years. Philly can tie for top spot in NFC East with win here; short week for Eagles after their Monday night home win. Iggles are 1-3 SU in true road games; under Pederson, they’re 5-6 as road underdogs, 0-1 this year. Cowboys won/covered their last four games, holding high-powered Saints to 10 points LW; Dallas is 5-1 SU at home this year, losing 28-14 to Titans; since ’16, they’re 8-7 vs spread as home favorites, 2-2 this year. Over is 3-1 in Philly’s road games this season, 4-1 in last five Dallas home games.
Steelers (7-4-1) @ Raiders (2-10)— Pittsburgh lost last two games, blowing 23-7 halftime lead at home to Chargers LW; their lead in AFC North is down to half-game. Steelers are 4-1-1 on road this year; since ’14, Pitt is 12-12-1 as road favorites, 1-2-1 this year. In their last three games, Steelers ran ball for only 26-75-65 yards and now Conner is out for this game. Raiders lost eight of their last nine games; six of their last seven losses were by 14+ points. Oakland is 1-4 at home, with losses by 20-14-1-7 points— they’re 9-19-1 vs spread in last 29 games as a home underdog. Oakland won four of last six series games; Steelers lost last three visits here, with last one in ’13. Last three Oakland games went over total; under is 5-1 in Steeler road games.
Rams (11-1) @ Bears (8-4)— Night game in December in Chicago? Temps expected to be in 20’s. Rams clinched NFC West LW, are still fighting for #1 seed in NFC. LA is 5-1 SU on road; under McVay, they’re 6-5 vs spread as road favorites, 3-3 this year. Bears won five of last six games, are 5-1 at home this year, with only loss 38-31 to Patriots. Chicago is 8-2-2 vs spread in its last dozen games as a home underdog. Bears split pair of games with backup QB Daniel, converting only 5-25 third down plays. Chicago won five of last six series games; teams last met in ’15. Rams lost 17-9/23-6 in last two visits here, last of which was in ’12. Three of Rams’ last four games, seven of last nine Chicago games went over the total.
Monday
Vikings (6-5-1) @ Seahawks (7-5)— Pivotal game in NFC playoff race. Right now, these teams would be two NFC Wild Card teams, so loser will get passed/tied for last playoff slot. Minnesota is 2-3 in its last five games; they’re 2-3-1 SU on road, 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as road underdogs, 1-3 this year. In last three games, Vikings ran ball for 22-91-95 yards; fans are unhappy with the OC. Seahawks won their last three games, scoring 27-30-43 points; they’re 3-2 SU at home. Seattle is 3-7-1 vs spread in last 11 games as home favorite, 2-1-1 this year. Seattle won last four series games, winning last meeting 10-9 in 2015 playoff game; Vikings lost their last two visits here, 30-20/41-20. Last four Seattle games went over total.