Sunday 11/04/2018 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc

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BROWNS AXE JACKSON, HALEY

The Cleveland Browns got the Monday NFL news cycle going by first firing head coach Hue Jackson and following that up by axing offensive coordinator Todd Haley just a short while later. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams takes over as interim head coach moving forward while running backs coach Freddie Kitchens takes over as offensive coordinator.

Williams is infamous for his role in New Orleans’ “Bountygate” scandal and is a defensive-minded coach so we can only assume (and hope) that he stays away from the offense. Kitchens is a former Alabama QB who coached under Ken Whisenhunt and Bruce Arians in Arizona from 2007-17. He has never been a coordinator at any level and has called plays in just one game — the fourth game of this past preseason. Detroit’s starters didn't play in that game, but Baker Mayfield started, and the Browns offense looked great, putting up 35 points, 424 offensive yards and 22 first downs.

We’re going to take a wait-and-see approach with the Browns this week as they face the Chiefs (K.C. -8, O/U 51.5), especially with Kitchens being such an unknown factor. But the fact is that Hue Jackson was 3-36-1 SU and 14-26 ATS in his career with the Browns. Things can only go up from here...right?

 

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made things official on Monday by confirming that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the team’s starting quarterback moving forward. It’s a move that was expected after Fitzpatrick replaced a terrible Jameis Winston in the third quarter and rallied the Bucs from an 18-point deficit, only to watch the Bengals win it on a field goal as time expired. It’s also a franchise-altering move as Tampa Bay owes Winston no guaranteed money after this season. It’s quite possibly the end of the Jameis Winston era in Tampa Bay.

Fitzpatrick was nothing short of awesome in rallying the Bucs on Sunday, going 11 of 15 for 194 yards and two touchdowns, including a 72-yard touchdown to Mike Evans which was his league-leading fifth touchdown pass of 50 yards or more this season. The Bucs are in a tough spot this week as they play their fourth road contest in five games as a touchdown underdog at Carolina, but we’re going to back Fitzmagic to do what he does best and take the Over on his longest completed pass.

 

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JONES TO MISS A FEW

In sticking with Tampa Bay, running back Ronald Jones is expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. This clears things up a bit in the crowded Buccaneers backfield as Peyton Barber should handle the early-down work while Jacquizz Rodgers gets the passing downs.

Barber went for 85 yards and a touchdown on 19 touches against Cincy last week in what was his best game of the season. Don’t expect another big game in Week 9, however, as Barber tries to find gaps against the Panthers and their sixth-ranked unit in rush defense DVOA. Carolina has held opposing backs to under 50 yards in three of its last four games and that should happen again this week in a game where running doesn’t look to be a part of the game script for Tampa Bay as a big road underdog and a high total of 54. We lean to the Under on Barber’s rushing yards total.

 

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Rams coach Sean McVay said on Monday that there’s a “good chance” that receiver Cooper Kupp returns on Sunday at New Orleans for a game that opened with a total of 59 and has already been bumped up to 60! Kupp has missed the last two and a half games after getting hurt early in the Week 6 win at Denver. The Rams have been able to win without Kupp, but Jared Goff has clearly missed him and has posted three of his weaker games of the season without him:

Week 6: 14 of 28, 201 yards
Week 7: 18 of 24, 202 yards
Week 7: 18 of 24, 202 yards
Week 8: 19 of 35, 295 yards

Prior to Kupp’s injury, Goff was averaging 345.4 yards per game. Sunday’s showdown is a great spot for Goff as he goes against the league’s 30th-ranked defense in pass defense DVOA but second-ranked rush defense using the same metric. In other words, the Saints’ rush defense is elite, and their pass defense is far from it. We’ll be looking to take the Over on Goff’s passing yards total on Sunday, especially if Kupp is cleared.

 

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Washington running back Chris Thompson is back on the injury report with a rib injury that he suffered in Sunday’s win over the Giants. Thompson was playing his first game since Week 5 and managed just five touches on 26 snaps (38 percent). Reports out of Washington say that his availability for Week 9 will depend on his ability to tolerate the pain.

Regardless of whether Thompson suits up, it looks like Washington’s backfield has become all Adrian Peterson. Over the past three weeks, the ageless wonder is averaging 22.3 carries for 115 yards. This Sunday, Washington hosts the Falcons in what should be a great spot for Peterson against the 31st-ranked rush defense in DVOA. Washington will also be looking to control the clock — something they do better than any team except Philadelphia — as to keep Matt Ryan and the explosive Falcons offense off the field. We like Peterson to have another big game and we’re backing the Over for his rushing total.

 

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Tech Trends - Week 9
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Nov. 4

DETROIT at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Detroit has covered 3 of last 4 meetings and “over” 11-5 since mid 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Lions, based on “totals” and team trends.


KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid 11-1 vs. line last 12 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on team trends.


PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens have covered 3 of last 4 at home vs. Steel and 6-2-1 vs. spread last nine in series. Steel 2-0 as short-priced dog TY. Tomlin “over” 7-2 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Ravens, based on “totals” and series trends.


TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs “over” 7-1 since late 2017. Bucs have covered 3 of last 4 vs. Cam at Charlotte, however, and “unders” 7-2 last nine meetings.
Tech Edge: "Over" and slight to Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.


N.Y. JETS at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins 1-4 SU and vs. line since 3-0 break from gate that included a win at Jets. J-Men, however, are 5-0-2 vs. line last seven at Miami.
Tech Edge: Jets, based on series trends.


ATLANTA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jay Gruden “over” trend has been fading for a while now, he’s actually “under” 8-2 last nine since late 2017. Skins, however, are 6-1 vs. spread last 7 at FedEx. Falcs have only played twice and road TY and have failed to cover either. Atlanta 5-2 “over” TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Skins, based on team trends.


CHICAGO at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 2-6 vs. line TY, “under” 8-2 last ten since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bears and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


HOUSTON at DENVER (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Texans have won last five SU though just 3-2 vs. line in those. Still improvement on 8 straight Ls previous. Denver has covered last three TY but Vance Joseph on 2-15-2 spread skid previous.
Tech Edge: Texans, based on team trends.


L.A. CHARGERS at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bolts have won last 4 SU but only covers in 2 of those. Bolts 5-2 “over” TY after closing 2017 on 10-1 “under” run. Pete Carroll has only played two home games TY and has covered them both. Hawks were only 1-5 vs. line last 6 at home LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chargers, based on team trends.


L.A. RAMS at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Saints have covered last five and won last six SU TY, Rams only 1-3-1 vs. spread last five, and surprisingly just 4-6-1 vs. line last 11 on board since late LY. Rams were “over” 7-1 as visitor LY, Saints “over” 6-2 last 8 at home.
Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


GREEN BAY at NEW ENGLAND (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pack “over” 12-4 last 16 since mid 2017, also covered last 2 two meetings vs. Belichick in 2010 & ‘14. Pack 2-1 as dog TY.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Packers, based on “totals” and team trends.

 

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The Houston Texans helped ease the pain of Will Fuller’s season-ending injury by getting Demaryius Thomas in exchange for basically a fourth-round pick (the teams also swapped seventh-rounders). Thomas is 30 years old and, frankly, is playing like an aging receiver this season with 4.5 catches and 50.3 receiving yards per game. But let’s face it, going from Case Keenum (not very good) to Deshaun Watson (quite good) is a massive upgrade.

Interestingly, the Texans face the Broncos on Sunday in Denver in a game where Houston’s Keke Coutee (hamstring) is questionable. Regardless of whether Coutee plays, Sunday is going to be a tough matchup for all of Houston’s passing offense against a Broncos defense that ranks second in pass defense DVOA. In general. we don’t like the idea of backing an offensive player on a new team and the matchup is just icing on the cake — take the Under on Thomas’ receiving yards total.

 

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On Sunday, Ty Montgomery was told to take a touchback on a late kickoff return. Instead, he decided to take the ball out and wound up fumbling, costing Aaron Rodgers a chance at a comeback against the Rams. On Tuesday, he was traded to Baltimore for a seventh-round pick. Coincidence? I think not. In Montgomery, the Ravens get a versatile pass-catching back that will further crowd a backfield that includes Alex Collins and Buck Allen. But the real winner of this trade is Aaron Jones.

It was already trending in this direction, but Jones is now the clear No. 1 option in Green Bay. Jones had season-highs in snaps (32) and touches (14) last week in L.A. and turned them into 86 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are only going to get bigger with Montgomery gone and Jamaal Williams simply not producing. Jones is in a decent spot on Sunday Night Football against a New England defense that is giving up 147.8 yards to opposing backfields so far this season and the game total of 56.5 also plays in his favor. We’re going to back the Over on Jones’ combined rushing and receiving yards total.

 

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Derek Anderson suffered a concussion late in the fourth quarter on Monday night and has already been ruled out of Week 9. Josh Allen is still hurt. Yes, this means that Nathan “Pick Six” Peterman will be the Buffalo Bills’ starting quarterback on Sunday as they host the Chicago Bears. The line opened at Chicago -8.5 and ticked up to -9 when the announcement was made.

Don’t try to talk yourself into betting on the Bills: Peterman is one of the worst quarterbacks we’ve seen in recent history. He has attempted 81 career passes and has thrown nine interceptions. He has appeared in six NFL games but has never managed to last more than two consecutive quarters.

Need reasons other than Peterman to fade the Bills? They haven’t scored a touchdown since the fourth quarter of Week 6. They don’t have another QB on their roster (yet); the closest thing is WR Terrelle Pryor, who played QB at Ohio State. Oh, and the Bills are playing a Chicago defense that leads the league in takeaways. There’s only one way to bet this game for now and that’s by taking the Bears -9 before the line gets even bigger. And when Buffalo’s team total market gets released later in the week, take the Under on that as well.

 

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TANNEHILL STILL OUT

Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill (shoulder) has been ruled out for Week 9, meaning Brock Osweiler will make his fourth consecutive start. But here’s the thing: It’s not Brocktober anymore. In fact, in the case of Osweiler, you could argue that Brocktober ended last week on Thursday Night Football in the 42-23 loss at Houston.

Osweiler was fantastic in his surprise start in Week 6 versus Chicago, throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns (two interceptions) on 28-of-44 passing. In Week 7, he was average, going 22 of 31 for 239 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 8, he was bad, going 21 of 37 for 241 yards and an interception. The Dolphins got down by a lot in Weeks 7 and 8 and Osweiler still put up pedestrian numbers while chasing points. This week, the Dolphins host the Jets and a pass defense that is ranked seventh in DVOA in what should be a tight divisional battle (Miami -3, O/U 45). There won’t be any garbage-time stat padding in this one and we think Osweiler is going to bottom out. Take the Under 240 on his passing yards total.

 

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Broncos general manager John Elway talked up rookie receiver Courtland Sutton after trading away Demaryius Thomas, saying the rookie has a "chance to get out there and play more and be a bigger part of it because we think he’s ready to go." Sutton has put up decent numbers so far this season as a clear third option while Thomas was on the field, averaging just over two catches per game for 40.5 yards. Sutton now becomes the No. 2 option behind Emmanuel Sanders and has a chance to eat into a lot of Thomas’ seven targets per game.

On Sunday, the Broncos host the Texans in a game where Denver’s pass catchers have a better matchup than the running backs. Houston is very tough against the run, ranking first in rush defense DVOA, but are average against the pass with a ranking of 14 when using the same metric. Last week, the Texans gave up stat lines of 6-134 and 5-43 to Devante Parker and Danny Amendola, respectively. We like Sutton to have a solid first game as a top-two option on the Broncos and we’re backing the Over on his receiving yards total.

 

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Baltimore’s backfield has been difficult to predict all season and now it gets even muddier with Montgomery in the mix. For the most part, and especially over the last few games, Alex Collins has been getting early-down work with Buck Allen subbing in as a passing-down back. Montgomery was used as both this season in Green Bay, averaging 3.7 carries and 2.1 receptions per game.

Montgomery likely won’t be a huge part of the Ravens’ offense, especially not in his first game this week against the rival Steelers, but he might steal a series or two from Collins in what was already looking like a bad matchup. Collins has been getting almost all the carries of late, with 41 over his last three weeks, but he still hasn’t been able to rush for more than 54 yards in a game over that stretch. This week, he takes on a Steelers defense that has allowed just 66.4 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields. Take the Under on Collins’ rushing yards total.

 

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Chicago Bears (-500) at Buffalo Bills (+400)

When you talk about the worst teams in the NFL this season, you cannot have that conversation without talking about the Buffalo Bills. This is a team that does not have a legitimate starting QB and who have had a player retire at half-time earlier this season.

While the Bills are on a downward spiral, the Chicago Bears are on the way up. They have a solid young QB in Mitch Trubisky, as well as a defense that has been flourishing with the addition of Khalil Mack. The Bears are at the top of a crowded NFC North and can extend that lead with a win over the Bills this weekend. I will definitely be taking time to play the Chicago Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+130) at Baltimore Ravens (-150)

Whenever these two teams meet, we are usually always guaranteed some fireworks, which often comes at the expense of a lack of scoring. These two generally get caught up in big-hitting defensive battles with a mistake or a turnover very often flipping the game one way or another. The Steelers got off to a slow start, but they are starting to put things together, winning 3 in a row to take the lead in the division.

The Ravens are going in the opposite direction, losing 3 of their last 4. While the Ravens are at home for this one and already have a win over Pittsburgh this season, I am just not sold on them. I will be looking to avoid the Baltimore Ravens.

Houston Texans (+100) at Denver Broncos (-120)

Outside of the LA Rams, there are few teams in the league who are hotter than the Houston Texans are at the moment. After getting off to an 0-3 start, the Texans have now reeled off 5 straight wins to take control of the AFC South. Despite those wins, the Texans are a team that have made a habit of winning close games, which may explain why they are in as a slight underdog on the road in Denver this weekend.

The Broncos have some serious issues, though, not the least of which is at the QB position. They have lost 5 of their last 6, which is why I am going to play the Houston Texans.

Atlanta Falcons (+105) at Washington Redskins (-125)

The Atlanta Falcons are underperforming in a big way this season, although they have been hit rather hard by the injury bug in the first half. They are on a modest 2-game winning streak right now, but those victories came against a pair of struggling teams, the Buccaneers and the Giants, with neither one being particularly convincing.

The Falcons are winless on the road and have gone 0-2 ATS in the two other games that they started as an underdog this season. Meanwhile, the Redskins are at 5-2 after reeling off 3 straight wins. All of the signs would appear to be telling me to avoid the Atlanta Falcons.

 

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Trends to Watch - November
Marc Lawrence

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Buffalo 31-20 ATS

The 2018 edition of the Buffalo Bills might not be very good, but at least they have a history of covering spreads at home. They have Chicago at home on Nov. 4th and Jacksonville on the 25th.

Bad: Cleveland 11-26 ATS and L.A. Rams 19-38 ATS

Not sure these two teams will continue on the same path. On a three-game losing streak to start the month, the Browns have home games against Kansas City and Atlanta on the first two Sunday's of the month with a different head coach.

The NFL's lone unbeaten team to start this month, the Rams, have just one home game to improve their dismal record. That will be against Seattle (11/11) in a rematch.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Oakland 19-32 ATS

The Raiders fans will not have much longer to watch their team do so poorly against the spread at home. This November it will be just once versus the Chargers.

AWAY TEAMS

Good: Houston 20-9 ATS

The Texans have been road warriors this month. Though Houston has back-to-back away contests, first in Denver (11/4) and next in Washington (11/18), they have a bye in the middle to break it up.

Keep an eye on (Good): Chicago 38-22 ATS, L.A. Chargers 32-20 ATS, New Orleans 36-24 ATS

The Bears surprisingly are fighting for an NFC North title. They will look to stay in the chase and given their spread record, they could do well a Buffalo (11/4) at Detroit on Thanksgiving.

One could make the case Chargers are on the road for every game given the lack of home field advantage in Carson CA. Nonetheless, they will dress in the visitors' locker room against Seattle (11/4) and Oakland at a week later.

The Saints will have a lot of home cooking this month other than one road affair at Cincinnati (11/11).

Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit 18-29 ATS, N.Y. Giants 23-35 ATS

Detroit's slow start could mean a long season, with two division road battles. They start in Minnesota (11/4) and a week later in Chicago. Not a great situation for the Lions.

Let's not sugarcoat it. The Giants stink. Trips to San Francisco (11/12), where the country cannot wait for that matchup, and to Philadelphia (11/25) should only make loyal backers poorer.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina 25-16 ATS, Dallas 46-29 ATS

The Panthers are solid when handing out points and they almost certainly will at home against Tampa Bay (11/4) and Seattle (11/25). Their matchup at Detroit on the 18th is a wait and see proposition at this time.

Dallas is favored over Tennessee on the first Monday of the month and most likely will be favored on Thanksgiving vs. Washington.

Bad: Washington 15-30 ATS

With the Redskins an improved football team, they might be favored more often than we might think. Washington hosts Atlanta (11/4) and Houston (11/18) and will be at the Buccaneers and Jerry's World on Turkey Day. The past does not offer much hope for backers.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Kansas City 24-40 ATS

The Chiefs have more than enough offense to better themselves in this role, going to Cleveland (11/4) and at home against Arizona (11/11).

UNDERDOGS

Keep an eye on (Good): Chicago 41-27 ATS, Tampa Bay 43-27 ATS

The Bears have been quite a success when catching points. Most likely they will be receiving points in what could be a very important home game with Minnesota (11/18) and we will have a wait see versus Detroit on Thanksgiving.

By this time of the year, Tampa Bay is just playing out the season and because nobody takes them seriously and they have covered more spreads than expected. The Bucs will be dogs at Carolina (11/4) and probably Washington (11/11). Games at the Giants and vs. the 49ers are TBD.

Bad: N.Y. Giants 14-33 ATS

As if the G-Men were not bad enough, now this comes up! They will be underdogs at Frisco (11/12) and at Philly (11/25). Bettors will be waiting anxiously (or not) to if the Giants will be the favorite against the Bucs at home (11/18).

Keep an eye on (Bad): Cleveland 18-32 ATS, Dallas 17-26 ATS, Detroit 24- 41 ATS

The Browns will be an underdog when facing the Chiefs (11/4), Falcons (11/11) and at Cincinnati (11/25). The only one that is uncertain is when they go up against Bye Week.

The Cowboys will be receiving points at Philadelphia (11/11) on a short week and seven days later at Atlanta. As mentioned, we are not sure what role they will have vs. the Redskins on Thanksgiving.

Detroit will be dogs at Minnesota (11/4) and possibly at Chicago (11/11). Home contests taking on Carolina (11/18) and the Bears (11/22) will require more information.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): New England 27-18 ATS, New Orleans 29-15 ATS, Oakland 30-19 ATS

The Patriots would have a much better spread mark it was not double digits all the time against AFC East foes. This month it will be just one against the Jets at their joint on the 25th.

On Thanksgiving evening when leftovers are fair game for who is still around, New Orleans will play host to Atlanta.

The Raiders will have the Chargers in Oak-Town on the second Sunday of the month and owner Mark Davis will still have a bad haircut.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Cleveland 12-21 ATS, L.A. Rams 18-30 ATS

For Cleveland, their record could get worse when they have the first Battle of Ohio in the Queen City on the 25th.

The Rams did not cover against Seahawks (11/11) in the previous contest, could it happen again?

 

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NFL Underdogs: Week 9 pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

Ah, the day after Halloween.

If you don’t have a brood of little Trick-or-Treaters to slowly steal candy from over the next week (I call it the “Candy Tax”), November 1 is primetime for discount goodies. All the stores have their leftover Halloween treats marked down lower than Amari Cooper Raiders jerseys.

That said, you’re settling for the candy no one wanted to give out on October 31, so the menu can sometimes be bleak. But discount shopping is not for the weak of heart – nor the weak of stomach. And the same goes for handicapping NFL pointspread underdogs.

The temptation is a sugar-fueled frenzy but there’s something a little off about the qualifying selection of teams each week. Just like that half-opened bag of semi-crushed Kit-Kat Minis in the bargain bin, underdogs are often damaged goods.

However, Week 9 presents some rare delicacies. We have some legit Super Bowl contenders getting the points, starting with the New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans opened as a 1-point underdog hosting the undefeated L.A. Rams Sunday, and quickly moved to -1.5 before rumblings out of the Big Easy surrounding the health of running back extraordinaire Alvin Kamara forced a move back to +1 Thursday (Kamara missed practice not due to injury, but illness, and is expected to be fine for Week 9).

The Saints are known for their explosive offense – which is why this total is flirting with 60 points – but the defense has been subtly good in recent weeks. New Orleans has allowed an average of just 19.6 points to opponents outside the NFC South and face a non-divisional foe that's been playing with fire when it comes to its unblemished record.

The Rams have gone from public darlings (started 3-0 ATS) to the boogey men of the betting community, with Todd Gurley’s yield in Week 8 busting bankrolls for the fourth time in the last five games. Los Angeles has won by a margin of three points or less in three of its last four appearances and will be playing its fourth road game in five weeks when it comes to the Superdome Sunday.

Give me the Saints, the points, and a handful of partially-melted Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups.

Pick: New Orleans +1

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47.5)

These AFC North rivalries are breeding grounds for underdog winners. But that’s not why I’m siding with the Steelers when they visit the Ravens as field-goal pups Sunday.

Pittsburgh has looked very good in recent weeks, winning three in a row after a wobbly start to the season and has done so on the back of its defense. The Steelers stop unit has given up just 56 total points and limited foes to a league-best 4.5 yards per play in that three-game span while tightening the bolts on what was a leaky pass defense.

Baltimore, on the other hand, had its defense exposed at Carolina in Week 8. Sure, the spot was tough for the Ravens (playing four road games in five weeks… we see you Rams) but they’ve managed to puff up their defensive resume against some cupcake offenses, like Buffalo, Denver, Cleveland and Tennessee. Now they take on a Pittsburgh scoring attack totaling 102 points over in its last three contests and sitting fourth in yards per play (6.6) during that trio of tilts.

Pick: Pittsburgh +3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 55)

"You’re everyone’s problem. That’s because every time you go up in the air you’re unsafe. I don’t like you because you’re dangerous."

Is that a heated clash between Tom "Iceman" Kazansky and Pete "Maverick" Mitchell, or is that simply the scouting report on Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Fitzpatrick is dangerous, and that’s what makes he and the Bucs worth a look in Week 9. Tampa Bay is steering into the skid and giving the ball to the wily veteran that tops the NFL in yards per completion (10.76) and has as many touchdown throws as Aaron Rodgers (13) despite completing 76 fewer passes.

We saw what happened to Tampa when he took over for Jameis Winston last week (a full-on Shane Falco moment) and this Bucs squad has fought hard all season despite the complete absence of anything even close to resembling a defense. They’ve watched five of their seven games be decided by six or fewer points and three of those have been settled by a field goal.

Should Fitzpatrick play “dangerous” Sunday, the Panthers just don’t have the passing game to pick up the slack. Carolina has shown a bad habit of falling behind early and while it may have been able to dig itself out of those holes versus “safe” offenses like Washington and Philadelphia, it’s driving down an entirely different highway in Week 9.

Crank up the Loggins and put on the aviators. Bucs and the points.

Pick: Tampa Bay +6.5

 

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FREEMAN STILL OUT

Broncos running back Royce Freeman missed practice again on Thursday and it would appear he’ll miss his second game in a row on Sunday as Denver hosts Houston. Freeman suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 7 and watched Phillip Lindsay and Devontae Booker each have nice games in his absence in Week 8.

Lindsay was the feature back and turned 56 percent of the snaps into 18 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown and added three catches for 17 yards. Booker was on the field for 44 percent of the snaps and ran for 78 yards on nine carries while adding four catches for 23 yards. This week, the Broncos face a Texans defense that ranks first in rush defense DVOA but 12th when it comes to total yards from scrimmage allowed to running backs. Because of that, we like the idea of Denver’s backs being involved as pass catchers. We’re going to monitor the props market for this game when it opens and take the Over for whoever has the lower number for their receptions total between Lindsay and Booker.

 

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MCGUIRE TO RETURN

The New York Jets are expected to activate running back Elijah McGuire off of I.R. for Sunday’s game at Miami. Common thinking is that he might eat into Isaiah Crowell’s field time but when you look at the Jets’ snap counts this season, you see that Crowell gets between 40-46 percent of the snaps, no matter who is active. Even last week with Bilal Powell out, Crowell received 46 percent of the snaps while sixth-round rookie RB Trenton Cannon received 54 percent. On Sunday, it won’t be a surprise when Crowell gets just about half of the snaps, while Cannon and McGuire split the rest.

Since busting off 219 rushing yards in Week 6, Crowell has been bad with rushing totals of 40, 29, and 25. But in gambling, it’s all about the spot and this is a great one for Crowell against a Miami defense that has given up rushing totals of 175, 209, 108, 93, and 167 yards over the last five games. New York will continue forcing the run as not to put too much pressure on rookie Sam Darnold and Crowell should find some nice holes on Sunday. Take the Over 58.5 on his rushing yards total.

 

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ROBINSON REMAINS SIDELINED

Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson remained on the sideline at practice on Thursday with a groin injury. It was his second straight missed practice after sitting out Week 8’s win over the Jets. Chicago’s wide receivers didn’t do much last week as game flow and weather contributed to QB Mitch Trubisky completing just 16 passes. One stat that does pop out from that game, however, is that rookie receiver Anthony Miller led the team in targets with seven. Trubisky is certainly looking his way more often recently (19 targets in the last three games) and he’s targeting Miller on deep balls (303 air yards over the last three games). This week, the Bears head to Buffalo as a 10-point road favorite in a game that looks like it’ll be played under pretty ideal weather conditions. Assuming Robinson can’t go, this could the week where Trubisky and Miller connect downfield and we’re going to back the Over for his receiving yards total.

 

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The Saints might try to run the ball early to keep the Rams’ offense off the field, but the Rams are going to throw a lot as opponents are gaining 80.2 percent of their yardage against New Orleans via the pass — and they’re likely to score against the 29th ranked unit in pass defense DVOA. This will keep the clock stopped and force the Saints to throw to keep pace. This is one of the highest game totals we’ve seen this century and the offenses on both sidelines are set to put up huge numbers. Take the Over on Brees’ passing yards total.

 

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COLEMAN TRENDING DOWN

Washington’s run defense has been very tough on opposing backs so far this season and that’s bad news for Atlanta's Tevin Coleman. The most rushing yards that Washington has given up so far on the season is 61 and over the last three games, it has allowed Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Christian McCaffrey a combined 91 rushing yards. Coleman is less involved in the offense than he was earlier in the season and has just 28 carries over his last three games, compared to 45 over his first three. Ito Smith has taken some of his carries (18 over his last two games) as his snap count has risen to the mid-40 percent level over the last two weeks. Coleman is trending in the wrong direction and is in a very tough spot this week. Take the Under 54.5 on his rushing yards total.