Sunday
Lions (3-4) @ Vikings (4-3-1)— Minnesota is 9-0 vs spread (8-1 SU) in its last nine pre-bye games. Lions allowed 26+ points in their four losses, 23 or less in their three wins; Detroit is 3-0 vs spread on road this year (2-0 as AU), 1-2 SU, with losses by total of five points. Minnesota won three of its last four games; under Zimmer, they’re 20-7 as home favorites, 2-2 this year. Vikings allowed 21 or less people in its four wins, 27+ in the other four games; they ran ball for 100+ yards in only one of their last seven games. Lions are 8-6 in last 14 series games; they won three of last four visits to the Twin Cities. Over is 5-2 in Detroit games this year; under is 3-1 in Viking home games.
Chiefs (7-1) @ Browns (2-5-1)— Williams is new HC for Browns; Kitchens is new OC after team fired HC/OC Monday; KC is tough opponent for them to break in against. Chiefs won/covered seven of eight games; they’re 3-1 on road- their last three road games were all decided by 5 or fewer points. KC is 9-3 in last dozen games as road favorites. Browns lost last three games, giving up 32.3 ppg; they’re 6-15-1 in last 22 games as home dogs, albeit 2-1 this year. KC won three of last four series games, winning by 2-6-4 points; they lost last visit here 30-7 in ’12. Browns’ GM Dorsey came to Cleveland from the Chiefs. Under is 3-1 in Cleveland home games, 4-1 in Chiefs’ last five games.
Steelers (4-2-1) @ Ravens (4-4)— Ravens won first meeting 26-14 (+3) in Week 4 at Heinz Field; they last swept Pitt in 2015. Baltimore outgained Pitt 451-284, blanked Steelers 12-0 in 2nd half. Ravens are 7-4 in last 11 series games; Steelers lost four of their last five visits here. Nine of last 15 series games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Ravens are 1-3 since that first meeting; they’re 0-3 when allowing more than 14 points. Steelers won last three games, scoring 41-28-33 points (12 TD’s on last 29 drives); Pitt is 2-0-1 on road- they’re 11-6-1 in last 18 games as road underdogs. Under is 5-1 in last six Baltimore games, 2-4 in last six Steeler games. Ravens are 2-4 SU (1-5 vs spread) in last six pre-bye games.
Buccaneers (3-4) @ Panthers (5-2)— Fitzpatrick gets nod at QB for Bucs after he rallied them back from down 34-16 to tie game in Cincy Sunday; Bucs were 2-1 when he started in Weeks 1-3. Under Koetter, Tampa is 9-7-1 as road underdogs, 2-2 this year- average total in their road games is 70. Panthers won four of last five games, are 4-0 at home- they’re 7-9 in last 16 games as home favorites, 2-1 this year. Carolina won eight of last ten series games, including four of last five games played here, with wins by 21-2-28-3 points. Over is 6-1 in Tampa games, 4-2 in last six Carolina tilts. In last two games, Panthers converted 11-23 on third down (47.8%), after converting 22-62 (35.5%) in first five games.
Jets (3-5) @ Dolphins (4-4)— Miami won first meeting 20-12 (+2.5) in Week 2, but they haven’t swept Jets since ’09. Two of Miami’s three TD drives in Week 2 were less than 50 yards. Jets won four of last five visits to South Beach, but are 1-6-1 vs spread in last eight games on natural grass- they lost last three road games, scoring 4 TD’s in last 32 road drives. Gang Green scored 34+ points in its three wins, 17 or less in their losses. Miami lost four of last five games, giving up 32-42 points last two weeks; in 3 of their last 4 games, Fish allowed 22+ points in second half. Miami doesn’t have a takeaway in its last two games, after having 15 in its first six games. Over is 4-1 in Jets’ last five games, 3-0 in Miami’s last three.
Falcons (3-4) @ Redskins (5-2)— Atlanta plays six of its last nine games on road; they’re 0-2 outdoors, losing 18-12 in Philly, 41-17 in Pitt, are 1-8 vs spread in last nine road games- they’re 32 for last 55 on third down, and are 3-1 when allowing less than 30 points. Redskins won their last three games, with 7 takeaways (+6); they’re 5-2 in last seven games as home favorites. Washington ran ball for 130+ yards in all five of its wins, 65-39 in its losses; Atlanta held 2 of 7 opponents under 100 YR. Atlanta won last five series games, winning last three visits here, by 7-10-7 points; last series games was in ’15. Last three Redskin games stayed under total; over is 5-1 in last six Atlanta games.
Bears (4-3) @ Bills (2-5)— Buffalo played its hearts out Monday night but lost 25-6; need a QB to win NFL games. In their last five games, Bills scored two TD’s on 53 drives, with 14 turnovers (-6). In four of their six losses, Buffalo didn’t score a TD- they were outscored 43-3 in first half of last three games. Chicago is 1-2 on road; games were decided by total of six points- since ’14, they’re 0-3 as road favorites, 0-2 this year. Bears are 6-12 vs spread in last 18 true road games. Chicago is 3-2 vs spread as a favorite this year. Teams split last four series games, with both Bills’ wins in OT; this is Bears’ first visit to Orchard Park since ’02 (they met in Toronto in ’10). Over is 3-1 in last four Chicago games; last six Buffalo games stayed under.
Texans (5-3) @ Broncos (3-5)— Houston won its last five games after an 0-3 start; Texans ran ball for 141-188 yards in its last two games- hopefully banged-up QB Watson won’t have to take bus to Denver, like he did for last road game. Broncos lost five of last six games after a 2-0 start; they’re 2-4-2 in last eight games as home favorites. Denver won three of four series games, winning three of four series games played here; Broncos won 37-13/27-9 in last two meetings. Under is 3-1 in last four Houston games, 5-2 in last seven Denver games. AFC South teams are 9-12 vs spread outside their division; AFC West teams are 7-1-1 as non-divisional favorites. Denver won five of its last six pre-bye games (4-2 vs spread).
Chargers (5-2) @ Seahawks (4-3)— Seattle ran ball for 155-176 yards in winning their last two games- they’re 4-1 in last five games after an 0-2 start. In their last three games, Seahawks are 22-37 on 3rd down, after going 0-10 in Week 4 at Arizona. Seattle is 1-7 vs spread in its last nine games as home favorites. Chargers won their last four games, averaged 9.2+ yardss/pass attempt in each of their last three games. LA is 3-0 outside LA, winning 31-20 at Buffalo in their only game on artificial turf. Seattle won six of last eight meetings, three of last four played here; these teams used to be AFC West rivals. Chargers are 2-5 vs spread in last seven post-bye games. Under is 5-1 in Seattle’s last six games; over is 5-2 in Charger games.
Rams (8-0) @ Saints (6-1)— Under McVay, Rams are 3-2 vs spread as underdogs; they’re 12-1 SU away from home, with only loss at Minnesota LY. LA scored 29 points in every game this year except Denver game, when it was 20 degrees- in last three games, LA’s opponents are just 8-30 on 3rd down. Saints won their last six games, covering last five; they held last six foes under 100 YR, and haven’t lost field position battle yet this year. Average total in Saints’ three home games this year: 63. Home side won last five series games; Rams lost 31-13/49-21 in last two visits here. Under is 3-1 in Saints’ last four games, 3-0 in Rams’ last three. This game has good shot at deciding #1 seed in NFC playoffs.
Packers (3-3-1) @ Patriots (5-2)— Green Bay blitzed Goff a lot LW and held Rams without score on their first five drives; they’re 0-3 on road, allowing 31-31-29 points (11 TD’s on 34 drives)- they’re 6-4 in last 10 games as road underdogs, 1-0 this year. 4 of 7 Packer games this year were decided by 3 or fewer points. Short week for Patriots after vanilla effort in Buffalo Monday; NE won last five games, is 4-0 at home (3-1 as HF)- they’re 25-12-3 vs spread in last 40 games as a home favorite. Teams split ten games overall; Packers are 2-4 in Foxboro, losing 31-27 in last visit here, in ’10. Over is 4-2 in last six Packer games, 3-1 in last four Patriot games. In last two games, NE scored three TD’s on special teams/defense.
Monday
Titans (3-4) @ Cowboys (3-4)— Cowboys fired their OL coach during bye week, would expect to see them try and run ball more here. Dallas is 3-0 at home, 0-4 on road; 3 of their last 4 games were decided by 3 or fewer points. Cowboys are 7-6 in last 13 games as home favorites, 1-1 this year. Titans lost last three games after a 3-1 start; five of their last six games were decided by 3 or fewer points- they’re 10-24-1 vs spread in last 35 true road games, 8-17 in last 25 games as a road underdog. Dallas won three of last four series games; Oilers/Titans are 4-3 in their visits here. Under is 5-2 in Dallas games, 5-1 in last six Titan tilts. Thought o lay 6.5 points to a team that hasn’t played a game this season that was decided by more than seven points.
