Sunday 09/23/2018 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

[bmd1803]

Total Recall

-- The lowest total on the board was for the Houston Texans-Tennessee Titans (41), driven down by the absence of QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) and TE Delanie Walker (leg). Vegas was on point, as the Titans scratched out a 20-17 victory despite the presence of QB Blaine Gabbert under center. The second-lowest game was in the Los Angeles Chargers-Buffalo Bills (41.5) game, a game which actually featured CB Vontae Davis retiring at halftime, that's how bad things are in Buffalo right now. The Sunday night game between the New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys (42) was also expected to be a defensive slog, and that's exactly what we got.

-- The highest total on the board was in the Chiefs-Steelers (52.5) game, and both teams threatened to send it 'over' themselves. The Chiefs posted a 21-spot in the first quarter, while the Steelers had a 21-spot in the second. While Vegas was correct on that line, they were way off for the Cleveland Browns-New Orleans Saints battle (51). The Browns had six or fewer points in each of their four quarters, while the Saints had three points in the first and two goose eggs in the second and third before exploding for 18 points and snagging victory from the jaws of defeat.

-- The 'over' is 2-0 for all AFC North Division teams except for the Bills, while the Chargers and Chiefs have also posted an 'over' result in each of their two outings. In the NFC, the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers have hit the 'over' in each of their two contests. The NFC East is the division of unders, as all teams except for the Philadelphia Eagles are 2-0 on the 'under' so far.

-- There are three primetime games in Week 2, with two already in the books at 1-1. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 3-3 (50.0%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

 

[bmd1803]

Chief Concerns

-- The Pittsburgh Steelers stumbled to a tie on the road against the Cleveland Browns in Week 1, but returned home to Heinz Field where all would be well, right? Well, the offense did come alive with 37 points, but the lack of defense for the Steelers was concerning. The Kansas City Chiefs fired out to a 2-0 SU/ATS record, both on the road, and they piled up 42 points thanks to six touchdown passes from QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are looking like one of the early Super Bowl favorites in the AFC, averaging 40.0 points per game (PPG) over their first two outings, as the 'over' has cashed in two games. The only problem is that defense wins championship, and Kansas City has yielded 32.5 PPG. As far as the Steelers are concerned, they are 0-1-1 SU/0-2 ATS and they have allowed 31.5 PPG, which is very un-Steeler-like.

 

[bmd1803]

The largest favorite to cover
Rams (-13) vs. Cardinals, 34-0
Chargers (-7.5) at Bills, 31-20
Falcons (-5.5) vs. Panthers, 31-24

 

[bmd1803]

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Colts (+6, ML + ) at Redskins, 21-9
chiefs (+4.5, ML + ) at Steelers, 42-37
Titans (+3.5, ML + ) vs. Texans, 20-17

 

[bmd1803]

National Football League Week 2 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-7-1
Against the Spread 4-11

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-4-1
Against the Spread 8-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-7
National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 17-12-2
Against the Spread 12-18-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 18-11-2
Against the Spread 15-15-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 17-14

 

[bmd1803]

Sunday, Sept. 23

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 48.5)

The Colts ripped off a victory on the road in D.C. last weekend as road 'dogs by the same exact margin, but can they upend the champs? Vegas is backing the Birds at home, especially now that they have QB Carson Wentz (knee) back from knee surgery. He could have a little rust after his long layoff, however. Will late money flow in on the Colts?

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (-3, 42.5)

The Bengals have won each of their first two games by the same exact score, 34-23. Despite Cincinnati's impressive start, Vegas and the offshore books are in almost entire agreement, listing the Cats are three-point favorites. Bovada.lv trusts the Panthers slightly more, opening them at 3 1/2, but they were quickly bet down to three points in a few hours.

The Bengals have covered in four of their past five road games, including Week 1 in Indianapolis, and they're 11-4 ATS in their past 15 games on a grass surface. The Panthers have covered five of their past six at home, including Week 1 against the Cowboys. For whatever it's worth, the Bengals are 11-2 ATS in their past 13 games in Week 3, while the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their past four Week 3 games. Don't take that seriously, although it is interesting nonetheless.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5, 39.5)

The Titans were forced to use QB Blaine Gabbert in their Week 2 win against the Texans, as it wasn't a complete disaster as expected. Meanwhile, 'Sacksonville' took care of the defending AFC champ Patriots to send Duuuval into party mode. Suddenly, national talking heads are seriously starting to talk about the Jags as contenders, so can they handle themselves with aplomb against the Titans?

Only a few offshore books are offering this game due to the uncertain status for QB Marcus Mariota (elbow). Even with Mariota, the Titans could be in trouble since they're 15-40-4 ATS in their past 59 against the AFC, and 17-36-3 ATS in their past 56 inside the division. Meanwhile, the Jags have covered seven of their past nine against AFC South foes.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 54.5)

BetOnline.ag opened the Falcons at -4, although a majority of Vegas books opened them at -3, including the Westgate Superbook. There hasn't been a lot of movement on this game, pehaps because no one knows which version of these teams is going to show up. The Falcons were listless on offense on the road in Week 1, but were decent in Week 2 despite the fact they were without RB Devonta Freeman (knee). Atlanta also lost two key defensive components to long-term injuries in the opener, as LB Deion Jones (foot) is on the Reserve/Injured Designated-to-Return list, with S Keanu Neal (knee) done for the season. Can the Saints show some consistency and take advantage of those absences?

The Saints are 14-5 ATS in their past 19 road games, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the NFC South. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in the past five games at home, while the home team has connected in nine of the past 13 in this series. This line is one of the highest totals of the young season, but it is expected to fall. While the over is 7-3 in the past 10 for New Orleans inside the division, the under is 8-0 in Atlanta's past eight against NFC foes and 4-0 in their past four divisional games while going 13-3 in the past 16 overall. The under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 meetings in this series, and 7-2 in the past nine meetings in Atlanta.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-5, 43)

The Broncos have found a way to win in each of their two games, but nearly all of the books opened with the Ravens as five-point favorites, as Denver just isn't trusted to win on the road yet. Mirage-MGM opened at -4.5, as did Southpoint and Treasure Island as the only exceptions. The lack of trust in the Broncos likely stems from their 1-9 ATS mark over the past 10 games.

New York Giants at Houston Texans (-3.5, 42)

The Giants are in the Lone Star State for the second consecutive weekend. Both of these teams are looking for their first win, and they're looking for their first cover, too. The 'under' might be the way to go, cashing in seven of the past eight for the G-Men, including 4-1 in the past five road games. The under is also 6-1 in Houston's past seven, and 12-4 in their past 16 following a non-cover.

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-3, 44.5)

The Dolphins are 2-0 SU, while the Raiders are 0-2 SU so far, but the books aren't buying Miami. Only the Stratosphere opened them at -4, while all over books gave Miami the three-point home advantage and that's it. These teams just met last season on Nov. 5, with the Raiders coming away with a 27-24 victory as three-point favorites.

Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 47.5) at Washington Redskins

The Redskins returned home after a convincing Week 1 win in Arizona, but now that win is looking less impressive since the Cards appear to be one of the worst teams in the league, and the 'Skins were also humbled by the Colts at home as six-point favorites. Now, Washington opens as an underdog in their second straight home game. The Pack has hit the 'over' in each of their first two games, averaging 26.5 points per game (PPG) while allowing 26.0 PPG.

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings (-16.5, 38.5)

The Vikings are the largest favorites of the 2018 season so far, with a majority of the books installing the Bills are 16- or 16 1/2-point 'dogs on the road. Only Treasure Island has the Vikings as low as 15 1/2 for now among the Vegas books. The Vikings were double-digit favorites three times in 2017, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS while outscoring opponents 30.0 PPG to 11.0 PPG in those three outings.

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 56)

 

[bmd1803]

Hot & Not Report

Two weeks of the NFL campaign are in the books and it was good to see that last week's scenarios I pointed out in this piece proved to be good ones to follow again in Week 2.

Pro Football teams from the state of Florida are still perfect SU and ATS with the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Buccaneers all winning outright as underdogs in Week 2. Tampa and Jacksonville looked mighty impressive in knocking off the two Super Bowl participants from a year ago (Philly and New England), while the Dolphins managed to knock down the Sam Darnold/NY Jets hype train back a few stations. All three of these Florida teams are at home in Week 3 so it will be interesting to see if they can continue to cash tickets for bettors.

On the other side of things, the Cleveland Browns continued to be the Cleveland Browns as they keep finding new ways to lose in heartbreaking fashion. The 21-18 loss they suffered in New Orleans did snap that 0-9 ATS run that road teams were on coming off a tie the week prior, but NFL teams are still winless (0-10 SU) in that spot this century.

Oddly enough, we've got another team in that identical spot this week as the Green Bay Packers head on the road to face Washington after tying with the Vikings this week. The Packers have opened up as -3 road favorites for that game, but with a SU winless trend staring the Packers right in the face, it may be better to lean towards taking the points and possibly even Washington ML. Only time will tell.

I'm sticking with the NFL again this week as there are a few scenarios that could be used as supporting angles/evidence in breaking down the Week 3 board.

Let's get right to it:

Who's Hot

'Unders' in games featuring NFC East Teams – 1-7 combined O/U record in division

That 1-7 O/U record for NFC East teams is technically 1-6 with the Cowboys and Giants playing one another on SNF, but the sentiment remains the same; you just aren't seeing great offensive play from anyone in this division. The only 'over' in these games came in the Philly/Tampa game in Week 2 and the bulk of the work done there to cash the 'over' was done by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers.

And as small of a sample size as it is given that it's just two weeks, I'm not sure much will change as we go on either. Sure, Eagles fans were swear up and down to you that their team will be different when QB Carson Wentz returns, but I'll gladly take the wait and see approach there. See, because through two weeks of the season, the NFC East is the only division in football to not have at least one team score at least 40 points combined through two games.

Philadelphia is the closest with 39, but when every AFC Division has at least three teams who have scored 40 or more through two weeks, and the NFC South has all four teams fitting that description – the NFC North and West already have three of four and two of four respectively at 40 or more but Chicago and Seattle still have yet to play – offensive football definitely needs some work in the NFC East. However, on the same side of that coin and why the games featuring Washington, Dallas, NY Giants, and Philly have been great 'under' bets so far is because they've also been the division with some of the best defensive play overall.

Washington (27 total points allowed ) and Dallas (29 points allowed) are 2nd and 3rd in the league in that category through two full games (Rams lead the way with 13 total points allowed), and Philadelphia (39 total points allowed) and New York (40 points allowed) aren't too far behind. The average for AFC teams in that regard (AFC is only conference where all 16 teams have played twice) comes in 48.3 points total points allowed, so defense may be the story of the day this year in the NFC East.

Week 3 sees the Eagles hosting the Colts – and keep an eye on a possible Carson Wentz return (total of 47.5), the Giants in Houston (total of 41), Washington hosting Green Bay (total of 46), and Dallas in Seattle (no line yet). The two games with lines have already seen a bit of 'under' action so far with some bettors looking to get ahead of the curve, so if riding this hot trend is something you are looking to do, then it's probably better to invest sooner rather than later for those 'unders' in the Giants and Redskins games.

Who's Not

NFL Teams ATS after scoring 40+ points – 1-3 ATS this year; 28-36 ATS since start of 2015 season

With about a handful of teams scoring 40+ in Week 1 this year it got me thinking about a trend I prefer to use in the NFL playoffs and tracking how it does in the regular season. That would be known as the “Fade 40” club as you want to be betting against teams the following week after scoring 40-plus (not including bye weeks). Week 1 saw Baltimore (47 points), Tampa Bay (48 points), New Orleans (40 points), and the New York Jets (48 points) all gain admission to this club, with only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaving with a smile on their face after beating Philadelphia. Neither of the other three teams never even really came close to covering their respective numbers as sustaining that high level of offense – especially this early in the season – is extremely difficult.

Speaking of early on in seasons, this trend through Weeks 2 through 5 the past three years has produced a 15-10 ATS record fading those 40+ point scoring teams. Often times these 40-point performances are nothing more than the outlier and simply a day where everything went right which is why fading said teams tends to make sense, that and these teams also get a point spread boost given their offensive explosion the week prior. Add in the hugely positive perception boost from the majority of the betting public as many tend to handicap on what they've seen last, and it's easy to see why fading these teams has been profitable; You have an inflated line on a team that's in store for a steep regression after a spectacular week of play.

Well, Week 3 only brings us one candidate (pending Seattle/Chicago) as the Kansas City Chiefs were the only NFL team to hit the 40-point mark in Week 2. Given the offensive show the Chiefs have put on through two weeks now (they scored 38 in Week 1), the Chiefs stock is near an all-time high at the moment with QB Patrick Mahomes being the talk of the league right now.

San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo must remember how it feels to be that guy after the way he closed the 2017 regular season down, and it's he and his teammates who roll into Kansas City this week to face the Chiefs in Kansas City's home opener. The point spread there currently sits at KC -6, having already been bumped from a -5 open, and I'm sure as the week goes on, and more and more flattering stories about Mahomes and the Chiefs pop up in the mainstream media, this number will only climb. But history's on the 49ers side here, Chiefs home opener be damned, so you'll see me patiently waiting to grab as many points with San Francisco this week.

 

[bmd1803]

Sharp bettors might like underdog Chargers' odds in NFL Week 3 battle vs. Rams
Patrick Everson

Coach Sean McVay and star players Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have the Rams at 2-0 SU and ATS, but the wiseguys might like the Chargers getting 7 points in a battle for L.A. bragging rights.

Week 3 of the NFL season features a battle for Los Angeles, between two teams that just three years ago were not even located in L.A. We check in on the opening line and early action for that tilt and three more, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

The Rams were a surprise winner of the NFC West last season, and they’re off to a solid start this season, as well. Sean McVay’s troops moved to 2-0 SU and ATS by plowing past Arizona 34-0 as a hefty 13.5-point favorite Sunday.

The Chargers (1-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t keep up with Kansas City’s explosive offense in Week 1, but found a perfect bounceback opponent in Week 2. Anthony Lynn’s squad traveled to Buffalo and nabbed a 31-20 victory as a 7.5-point chalk Sunday.

“We wanted to open this line a little high, as we know the public will be all over the Rams, who haven’t given up a point since the first half of the Oakland game in Week 1,” Murray said Sunday night. “We have frequently seen the sharps back the Chargers as road ‘dogs over the last few seasons, and I won’t be surprised if we see that again in this game. The Chargers may not have missed Joey Bosa against hapless Buffalo, but I’m sure they will wish he was in the lineup next week.”

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+7)

Bill Belichick gets to face one of his longtime assistants in Matt Patricia, and New England is smarting after a road loss to Jacksonville on Sunday. The Patriots (1-1 SU and ATS) trailed 21-3 at halftime and never got within single digits in a 31-20 setback as a 2-point fave.

Patricia’s first game as a head coach was a nightmare, as Detroit got blown out at home by the Jets on “Monday Night Football.” The Lions (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) put up a better fight in Week 2, rallying from a 30-13 fourth-quarter deficit and coming up just short in a 30-27 loss to San Francisco as a 6-point road pup.

“I’ll be interested to see where this game closes,” Murray said. “We wanted to open it on the high side, because we know that there will be a lot of moneyline parlays and teasers tied to the Patriots in the Sunday night spot.”

Early bettors seemed to like those points with the Lions, as the line dipped to 6.5.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

New Orleans hasn’t looked very good through two weeks, splitting two games SU as a sizable favorite, while failing to cover both times. On Sunday, the Saints went off as 10-point home faves against Cleveland and snuck out with a 21-18 victory.

Atlanta had a sluggish offensive performance in Week 1 at Philadelphia, but found its form in Week 2. The Falcons (1-1 SU and ATS) beat Carolina 31-24 laying 5.5 points at home Sunday.

“The Saints could easily be 0-2 right now, if not for the errors from Cleveland’s kicking game,” Murray said. “Atlanta is coming off a solid win against Carolina. We opened Falcons -3 (-110) and took some bets right away that pushed our number to -3 (-120). Despite their rough start, I do expect to see some support for the Saints in this game, as well.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (-3)

Cincinnati has been alarmingly consistent in the first two weeks, twice going off as 1-point chalk and twice winning and covering by the exact same score. In Week 2, the host Bengals bested Baltimore 34-23 in the Thursday nighter.

Carolina got out to a good start at Atlanta on Sunday, up 10-3 midway through the second quarter, but found itself down 24-10 a quarter later. The Panthers (1-1 SU and ATS) rallied but came up short in a 31-24 loss getting 5.5 points.

“The Bengals have been very impressive over the first two weeks and have three extra days to prepare for this game,” Murray said. “Carolina will have its hands full. Cincinnati has a lot of playmakers on offense all of a sudden, and appears to be a real threat in the AFC North.”

Still, early activity pushed the Panthers’ price up a dime, to -3 (-120).

 

[bmd1803]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3


Sunday, September 23

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (2 - 0) at CAROLINA (1 - 1) - 9/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 157-123 ATS (+21.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 0) - 9/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 113-147 ATS (-48.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (1 - 1) at ATLANTA (1 - 1) - 9/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (2 - 0) at BALTIMORE (1 - 1) - 9/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (0 - 2) at HOUSTON (0 - 2) - 9/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (0 - 2) at MIAMI (2 - 0) - 9/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
MIAMI is 42-18 ATS (+22.2 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 0-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (1 - 0 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 1) - 9/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 188-134 ATS (+40.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 87-117 ATS (-41.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 87-117 ATS (-41.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 64-89 ATS (-33.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 87-117 ATS (-41.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (0 - 2) at MINNESOTA (1 - 0 - 1) - 9/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) - 9/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in September games since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA CHARGERS (1 - 1) at LA RAMS (2 - 0) - 9/23/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 119-90 ATS (+20.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 119-90 ATS (+20.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 96-69 ATS (+20.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 186-232 ATS (-69.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 186-232 ATS (-69.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 86-121 ATS (-47.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 144-184 ATS (-58.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 64-97 ATS (-42.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (0 - 1) at ARIZONA (0 - 2) - 9/23/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 43-22 ATS (+18.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (0 - 1) - 9/23/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) at DETROIT (0 - 2) - 9/23/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in dome games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 136-173 ATS (-54.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[bmd1803]

NFL

Week 3

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Trend Report


Sunday, September 23

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 7-12-3 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Minnesota is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Buffalo


New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants's last 8 games
NY Giants is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
Houston Texans
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games


San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
San Francisco is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco


New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
New Orleans is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games
New Orleans is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing at home against New Orleans


Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Washington
Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Washington
Washington Redskins
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Green Bay
Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Green Bay


Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Indianapolis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games
Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Indianapolis's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis


Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Miami
Oakland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
Oakland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Miami is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 12 games
Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Oakland
Miami is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland


Denver Broncos
Denver is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Denver is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
Denver is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Denver is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Denver is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games
Baltimore is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Denver
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver


Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Carolina is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games


Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
Tennessee is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Jacksonville is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee


Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
LA Chargers is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Chargers's last 13 games
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Chargers is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing LA Rams
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
LA Rams is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
LA Rams is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers


Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Seattle is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games at home
Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas


Chicago Bears
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 8-15-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Arizona's last 21 games at home
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago


New England Patriots
New England is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
New England is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
New England is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
New England is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Detroit
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New England
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England

 

[bmd1803]

NFL

Week 3



Sunday
Colts (1-1) @ Eagles (1-1)— Philly gets Wentz back at QB here, for first time since game in LA last December- keep in mind he’s had zero game reps since then, so caution advised. Colts seem rejuvenated with Luck back at QB; they held Redskins without TD in 21-9 road win LW, have converted 20 of 33 third down plays. Since 2013, Indy is 14-12-1 as road underdogs- they’re 16-9 vs spread in last 25 games vs NFC squads. Under Pederson, Philly is 6-2-1 as home favorites, 6-2-1 vs spread vs the AFC. Iggles’ defense got lit up for 393 PY (11.2 yards/pass attempt) in Tampa LW, giving up two 75-yard TD passes. Eagles won last two series games, 26-24/30-27; Colts are 5-5 in visits to Philly.

Bengals (2-0) @ Panthers (1-1)— Cincy scored 30+ points in first two games for first time ever, winning both games 34-23; Bengals have five takeaways (+3) in two games, scored five TD’s and a FG on six red zone drives. Since 2011, Bengals are 21-12-4 as road underdogs, 16-9-3 vs NFC teams- they’re 9-4-2 vs spread in last 15 games on grass. Under Rivera, Carolina is 21-16-2 as home favorites, 15-11-2 vs AFC teams. Panthers gave up seven plays of 20+ yards in loss at Atlanta LW; over last 10 years, Carolina is 3-7 vs spread in game before their bye. Under is 10-7 in Panthers’ last 17 home games. Teams are 2-2-1 in this series; last meeting was 37-all tie in 2014. Bengals had three extra days to prep, having played last Thursday.

Titans (1-1) @ Jaguars (2-0)— Since 2014, Tennessee is 9-23-1 vs spread on road, 7-17 as road underdogs, 0-8 as an AFC South road dog. Titans won four of last five series games; they swept Jags 37-16/15-10 LY, despite Jax making run to AFC title game. Tennessee lost five of last seven visits here. Jaguars beat New England LW, avenging loss in AFC title game; do they let down here? Jags are 4-2 in last six games as home favorites; since ’09, Jaguars are 8-2 vs spread as a home favorite in divisional games- they lost LT Robinson (ACL) for the year. Titans beat Houston LW with backup QB Gabbert playing; they had 66-yard TD pass on a fake punt, 2nd week in row they scored on special teams.

Saints (1-1) @ Falcons (1-1)— New Orleans lost six of its last seven road openers; over is 7-3 in their last 10 road openers. Last four years, Saints are 12-7-1 vs spread as road underdogs; 6-2 in NFC South games. Falcons are 6-3 vs spread in last nine home games; they ran ball for 170 yards in win over Carolina LW. Over is 11-6 in Atlanta’s last 17 home games. So far this season, home favorites are 3-5 vs spread, in divisional games. Atlanta is 5-3 in last eight games in this rivalry; Saints lost 38-32/20-17 in last two visits here. Last three years, under is 12-10-1 in NO road games. Reality is this; had Cleveland chosen the right kicker in camp, Saints would be 0-2 right now.

Broncos (2-0) @ Ravens (1-1)— Denver won its first two games (both at home) by total of four points; they won their road opener four of last five years, but since 2012, they’re 4-11 vs spread as road underdogs. Broncos outrushed first two foes 314-156; they rallied back from down 19-9 in 3rd quarter to beat Oakland LW. Ravens had three days extra prep time since Cincinnati loss LW; they’ve scored nine TD’s on 26 drives this year, scoring 62 points on nine red zone drives. Baltimore is 8-6 vs spread in last 14 games as home favorites; Broncos lost five of last six visits here, with one win six years ago. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Giants (0-2) @ Texans (0-2)— Under O’Brien, Houston is 14-7-1 as home favorites, but after an 0-2 start, Texan fans are calling for O’Brien’s head- big game here. Texans are just 7-22 on 3rd down thru two games- they gave up a 66-yard TD on a fake punt LW. Giants are 9-12-2 in last 23 games as road underdogs; Big Blue scored only two TD’s on 22 drives this year— they’ve been outsacked 8-1, averaging only 5.4/4.4 yards/pass attempt. Giants won last three series games, by 4-24-13 points; they split two visits here. Houston is 6-2 in its last eight home openers, 5-5 vs spread when favored in home openers- under is 9-4 in their last 13 HO’s. Under is 14-9 in Houston’s last 23 home games.

Raiders (0-2) @ Dolphins (2-0)— Oakland’s starters are oldest in NFL; they’ve been outscored 43-7 in second half of first two games, after leading both games at halftime. Raiders gave up 308 rushing yards in two games; since 2015, they’re 10-7-1 as road underdogs. Dolphins won their first two games, with three takeaways in each game (+2); over last decade, Miami is just 12-29-2 vs spread as home favorites. Over is 11-4 in Dolphins’ last 15 home games; under is 8-2 in Oakland’s last ten road tilts. Miami won 11 of last 14 series games, with last four wins all by 16+ points; Raiders won 27-24 here LY, just their 2nd win in last nine visits to South Beach.

Packers (1-0-1) @ Redskins (1-1)— Green Bay tied Vikings last week, but scored only one offensive TD, tried six FG’s; thru two games, Pack has scored only 26 points on seven red zone drives. Washington didn’t score TD in 21-9 home loss to Colts LW; they kicked FG’s on both their red zone drives. Under Gruden, Redskins are 7-8 as home underdogs- under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games. Packers won six of last eight series games; average total in last three meetings was 59. Pack split their last four meetings here. Green Bay lost four of its last six road openers; over is 10-2 in their last dozen. Since 2014, Packers are 10-8 as road favorites; over is 13-3 in their last 16 road games.

Bills (0-2) @ Vikings (1-0-1)— Buffalo trailed first two games 26-0/28-6 at halftime; they’ve got rookie QB making his first road start here. Bills are 7-29 on third down- they’ve gone 3/out 15 times on 24 drives. Since 2014, Bills are 13-10 as road underdogs. Minnesota has new kicker (Bailey) after LW’s tie in Green Bay; under Zimmer, Vikings are 19-5 as home favorites, 2-0 when laying double digits. Buffalo won three of last four series games, with all three wins by 5 or fewer points, or in OT; they lost four of five visits here, with one win a 45-39 OT win in 2002. Last five years, Week 3 underdogs of 6+ points who lost their first two games are 7-6 vs spread, 2-2 if getting double digits.

49ers (1-1) @ Chiefs (2-0)— Mahomes has thrown 10 TD’s in first two games; this is his 4th NFL start, but his first home start. Chiefs have 10 TD’s, only one FGA in two games, averaging 9.1, 11.1 yards/pass attempt- four of their 10 TD’s came on plays of 25+ yards. KC is 2-9-1 vs spread in its last 12 home openers; under Reid, they’re 16-14 as home favorites. 49ers are 8-7 in last 15 games as road underdogs; they’re 8-24 on 3rd down so far this season. 49ers are 7-5 in series, with home side winning last nine series games; 49ers are 0-4 here, losing by 7-35-31-21 points. Under is 6-3 in 49ers’ last nine road games; last five years, under is 26-14 in Arrowhead games.

Chargers (1-1) @ Rams (2-0)— Over last decade, Chargers are 31-18-3 vs spread as underdogs on road; they scored seven TD’s on 20 drives in splitting first two games, but gave up three TD plays of 35+ yards in Week 1 loss to Chiefs. Rams allowed TD on Oakland’s first drive in Week 1; since then, they’ve allowed only two FGA’s on 18 drives. All six of Rams’ TD drives on offense have been less than 60 yards- they outscored first two opponents 38-0 in second half. These teams will be sharing a new domed stadium in two years; home side won last seven series games- three of last four meetings were decided by 4 or fewer points. Under McVay, Rams are 4-3 as home favorites; under is 24-17 in Chargers’ last 41 road games.

Bears (1-1) @ Cardinals (0-2)— Long travel, short week for Bear squad that outscored first two opponents 27-3 in first half; they beat Seattle at home Monday night, have 10 sacks in two games, scored defensive TD in both games, but young QB Trubisky scares the hell out of me- this is a huge trap game for Bears, since Arizona was so dismal in its 0-2 start. Cardinals were outscored 58-6 in their first two games, with nine 3/outs on 18 drives; if they keep starting Bradford, Arizona is unbettable, since Bradford looks scared of getting hit. Chicago won six of last nine series games; they won four of five visits to the desert. Bears are road favorite for only 2nd time in last five years; last time they were favored by this much on road was 2012.

Cowboys (1-1) @ Seahawks (0-2)— Seattle won its last nine home openers, and 14 of last 15; last two were 12-10/12-9. Under is 14-2-1 in their last 17 home openers. Short week for Seahawks after 24-17 loss in Chicago Monday; they’re 1-7 in last eight games as home favorites, 7-25 on 3rd down, have run for only 138 yards- their OL is awful. Dallas has only two plays of 20+ yards in its first two games; they’re 5-21 on 3rd down; Prescott misses departed playmakers, Witten, Bryant. Under Garrett, Cowboys are 22-14 as road underdogs. Home side lost last three series games, with Seattle winning last two, 13-12/21-12; Cowboys split eight visits here, with last one in ’14. Under is 17-7 in last 24 Dallas road games.

Patriots (1-1) @ Lions (0-2)— Matt Patricia was a Patriot assistant for 17 years; now he is 0-2 as Lions’ head coach, and faces his mentor here. Detroit allowed 78 points in losing its first two games, giving up seven TD’s, five FGA’s on 22 drives- they’re -4 in turnovers. Since 2011, Detroit is 3-11-1 as a home underdog. Over last decade, New England is 24-10 vs spread coming off a loss; they’re 11-5 in last 16 games as road favorites, 13-5 vs NFC teams. Will Josh Gordon play here? Patriots averaged only 6.5/5.9 yards/pass attempt in first two games- they’re 8-26 on third down- my guess is he plays. Last five years, Week 3 underdogs of 6+ points who lost their first two games are 7-6 vs spread.

 

[bmd1803]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3


Sunday, September 23

Indianapolis @ Philadelphia

Game 461-462
September 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
128.865
Philadelphia
141.238
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 12 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 6
48
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-6); Under

Cincinnati @ Carolina

Game 963-964
September 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
134.507
Carolina
134.559
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
Even
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+3); Over

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Game 465-466
September 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
132.177
Jacksonville
133.326
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 6 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+6 1/2); Over

New Orleans @ Atlanta

Game 467-468
September 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
132.613
Atlanta
138.956
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 6 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3
53
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-3); Over

Denver @ Baltimore

Game 469-470
September 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
131.896
Baltimore
129.626
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 5
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+5); Over

NY Giants @ Houston

Game 471-472
September 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
119.696
Houston
127.551
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 8
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6
42
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-6); Under

Oakland @ Miami

Game 473-474
September 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
123.570
Miami
132.079
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 8 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-3); Under

Green Bay @ Washington

Game 475-476
September 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
127.730
Washington
128.220
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
Even
32
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3
46
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3); Under

Buffalo @ Minnesota

Game 477-478
September 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
122.323
Minnesota
135.734
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 13 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 17
41
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+17); Under

San Francisco @ Kansas City

Game 479-480
September 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
133.661
Kansas City
136.722
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+6 1/2); Under

LA Chargers @ LA Rams

Game 481-482
September 23, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
132.043
LA Rams
140.599
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 6 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-6 1/2); Under

Chicago @ Arizona

Game 483-484
September 23, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
125.822
Arizona
126.894
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 6 1/2
37 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+6 1/2); Under

Dallas @ Seattle

Game 485-486
September 23, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
132.211
Seattle
128.630
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 3 1/2
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 1
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+1); Under

New England @ Detroit

Game 487-488
September 23, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
135.269
Detroit
123.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 11 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6 1/2); Over

 

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PATS GRAB GORDON

If one thing was obvious in New England’s loss to Jacksonville, it was that the Patriots needed to do something about their receiving corps. The Jags were able to double Rob Gronkowski all day on Sunday and New England’s wideouts couldn’t create any separation and accounted for just 104 receiving yards. Enter Josh Gordon, who Bill Belichick was able to nab for a conditional fifth-round pick on Monday.

Gordon immediately becomes New England’s most talented wide receiver. But will he make an impact when the Pats visit Detroit on Sunday night? It’s doubtful. First, he was complaining about a sore hamstring when he reported to the Browns on Saturday. Bettors will want to monitor reports about his health throughout the week. But more importantly, it’s probably going to take Gordon a while to get up to speed with New England’s offense. Belichick and Brady demand that receivers run tight routes and it’s unlikely he learns the intricacies of the offense in one week’s worth of practice. If Gordon plays in Week 3, the Over for his receiving yards is going to be a popular bet as New England fans drool over the thought of Brady throwing 70-yard bombs to Gordon, but we’re recommending the Under, at least for this week.

WENTZ RETURNS

Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has been medically cleared and will start in Week 3 at Indianapolis. That sends Nick Foles to the bench which is good news for the Eagles as the Super Bowl MVP has been ineffective this season, averaging just 5.5 yards per pass with a rating of 78.9.

Wentz was nothing short of spectacular until his knee injury in 2017 with 33 touchdowns to just seven interceptions in 13 games. But getting back to game speed isn’t easy, especially after a long ACL layoff. Just ask Texans QB Deshaun Watson, who has stumbled to an 84.5 quarterback rating in 2018 after posting a 103 rating before his knee injury in 2017. There’s also the fact the Eagles offense is hurting, literally, with Alshon Jeffery, Mike Wallace, Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles, and stud left tackle Jason Peters all hurting. We’re thinking it’s going to take the Eagles offense a while to get in sync and are leaning towards their first-half total Under against the Colts.

CARDS PROMISE MORE JOHNSON

Anyone who plays fantasy football knows how disappointing David Johnson has been through two weeks as the super-talented back has just 85 rushing yards on 22 attempts and six catches for 33 yards. On Monday, first-year head coach Steve Wilks promised that would change, saying that the plan is to get Johnson running more passing routes out of the slot.

The issue has been with just how bad Sam Bradford and the Cardinals have been. In Week 1, the Cards were trailing 21-0 at the half and in Week 2 they were down 19-0 at the break. In both games, they were forced to abandon the run early and for some reason seemed to forget that Johnson is also a very good pass-catching back. Arizona returns home to host Chicago in Week 3 and it seems like the Cardinals are going to make every effort possible to get their best offensive playmaker more involved, whether they get blown out or not. Let’s back Johnson to score a touchdown at any time in Week 3.

MARIOTA STATUS UNCHANGED

Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota didn’t play a snap on Sunday with an elbow injury after coach Mike Vrabel led everyone to believe he was healthy enough to play. On Monday, Vrabel said Mariota’s status hasn’t changed and that “there are still throws Mariota can’t make.”

In Week 3, Tennessee travels to Jacksonville to take on one of the best defenses in the NFL. If Mariota plays, he’ll clearly be doing so at less than 100 percent. If he doesn’t, that leaves Blaine Gabbert who went 13 of 20 for 117 yards in a home win against Houston on Sunday. Yes, the Titans scored 20 points but seven of those came on a fake punt. The line isn’t out yet but we’re jumping all over the Titans team total Under when it’s released.

GIANTS O-LINE LOSES A PIECE

There was a lot of talk about the revamped offensive line of the New York Giants coming into this season, but it was awful on Sunday Night Football as Eli Manning got sacked six times in the loss to Dallas. Then after the game, it was revealed that starting center Jon Halapio broke his ankle and is out for the season.

Manning hasn’t had time in the pocket and therefore has been forced to dink and dunk all season. He’s averaging just 6.21 yards per pass (after averaging just 6.98 yards per pass in 2017) and his longest pass of the season is 37 yards and that came on a throw to Cody Latimer in garbage time against the Cowboys. The Giants travel to Houston in Week 3 to take on what should be an extremely motivated Texans team that has lost two in a row on the road to start the season. The Texans are going to come at Manning all night and bettors should expect another check-down performance. We’re looking to take the Under on Manning’s longest completed pass when the market opens later in the week.

 

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Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall


Sunday, Sep. 23

INDIANAPOLIS at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts were 11-5 vs. line as dog from 2013-15 with a healthier Luck. Tend to discount LY’s Indy numbers with Brissett. Birds 14-4-1 vs. points at Linc under Pederson.
Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on extended trends.

CINCINNATI at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Pan-thas were just 5-8 as home chalk past two seasons before W vs. Dallas in opener. Marvin Lewis has now covered 4 straight and 7 of 9 since late last season. Bengals also “over” last three (last two scores identical 34-23).
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on recent trends.

TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Tenn won and covered both meetings LY though Jags covered 4 of their other 6 reg season at home. Titans no covers last four as road dog.
Tech Edge: Jags, based on team trends.

NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints 10-5 as dog last two years in reg season. Falcs “under” 8-1 since late 2017, and both meetings “under” LY.
Tech Edge: Saints and “under,” based on team and ”totals” trends.

DENVER at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Denver 1-9 vs. line its last ten away (1-7 for Vance Joseph LY). Ravens “over” 7-3-1 last 11 as host.
Tech Edge: Ravens and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

N.Y. GIANTS at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Road dog at times a good role for Eli but just 9-11-1 in role since 2014. G-Men also “under” 8-1 last 9 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 3-10-3 last 16 on board since early 2017. Now also “under” 9 in a row since mid 2017. Gase 7-4-3 vs. points last 14 at home.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Dolphins, based on “totals” and team trends.

GREEN BAY at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jay Gruden “under” six straight since late 2017 but had been “over” 24-9 previous 33. Pack “over” 26-11 since 2016.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on extended “totals” trends.

BUFFALO at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills “over” 22-12 since 2016. Vikes on 12-1 spread surge in reg season since mid 2017.
Tech Edge: Vikings and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at KANSAS CITY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 7-2 vs. line last 9 as reg season host. Mahomes “over” in his first three starts. Garoppolo 7-2 vs. line in career starts.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.

L.A. CHARGERS at L.A. RAMS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bolts 26-12-1 as visiting dog since 2012. Also “under” 8-3 last 11 away.
Tech Edge: Chargers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

CHICAGO at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cards “under” 14-5-1 at Glendale since late in 2015 campaign. Bears 2-0, Cards 0-2 vs. line early in 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Bears, based on “totals” and team trends.

DALLAS at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cowboys now “under” 10-1 last 11 since mid 2017. After 4-1-1 dog mark in 2016, Dallas just 1-4 as short since. Pete Carroll just 2-7 vs. spread last 9 at home.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at DETROIT (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Patriots on 10-2 spread uptick in reg season play since mid 2017. Belichick 24-10 vs. spread in reg season since 2016. Lions 2-7 last nine as Ford Field dog.
Tech Edge: Patriots, based on team trends.

 

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MCCOY IN MORE TROUBLE

Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy is in trouble again as news came out Tuesday that he’s being accused of abusing his six-year-old son. No reports yet if McCoy will be investigated by the league but it’s certainly something to monitor throughout the week. McCoy also isn’t 100 percent healthy after injuring his ribs in Week 2, although he has said he’ll try to play at Minnesota on Sunday where the Bills are currently 17-point (!!) underdogs.

If McCoy does suit up, bettors should grab the Under for his rushing total as soon as the line comes out. It’s easy to envision a scenario where a banged up McCoy takes a hard hit early from the ferocious Vikings defense and doesn't return. It’s also fair to wonder where his head is going to be as he tries to motivate himself to play for the worst team in football while going through some potentially serious legal issues. The Bills are a dumpster fire and the McCoy situation just adds fuel to it.

 

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BEARS STRIKE QUICK

The Bears visit the Cardinals on Sunday in a battle of two first-year NFL coaches. Through two weeks, we’ve learned that Chicago’s Matt Nagy is really good at scripting plays, while Arizona’s Steve Wilks is not. The Bears have scored touchdowns on both of their opening drives and have outscored their opponents 27-3 in the first half so far this season. The Cardinals, meanwhile, haven’t scored a single point in the first half yet this season. In fact, they haven’t scored a point in the first three quarters and have just six total points. As long as Wilks keeps riding Sam Bradford, we’re going to bet against him, so let’s look for the Bears to score first on Sunday.

 

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There are eight NFL teams with perfect 2-0 ATS records to start the season. Here they are:

Bears 2-0
Bengals 2-0
Browns 2-0
Jaguars 2-0
Chiefs 2-0
Rams 2-0
Dolphins 2-0
Buccaneers 2-0

 

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There are seven NFL teams with less-than-perfect 0-2 ATS records to start the season. Here they are:

Cardinals 0-2
Bills 0-2
Texans 0-2
Saints 0-2
Giants 0-2
Steelers 0-2
49ers 0-2

 

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COOK MISSES PRACTICE

Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook missed practice on Wednesday after leaving Sunday’s game against Green Bay late. No one seems concerned that he’ll miss Sunday’s mouth-watering matchup against Buffalo, however. The Bills are giving up 113 rushing yards per game and have allowed a league-high four rushing touchdowns. Assuming Cook plays, he’s going to have a big day. But everyone, especially oddsmakers, knows that and Cook’s totals are going to be high. So how can bettors profit?

Well, the Vikings aren’t going to want to risk having Cook get hurt late in a game where they’re blowing out the worst team in the NFL. And, as 16.5-point home favorites, there’s a good chance they blow out the Bills. In this scenario, Latavius Murray should see a lot of carries late in the game as to preserve Cook. Let’s back Murray to score a touchdown at any time, with it probably coming late in the game.

 

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SLOW START FOR SHEPARD

The New York Giants’ passing game is off to a sluggish start this season, averaging just 215 yards per game, 24th in the NFL. That’s simply not good enough for a team with as much offensive talent as the Giants. The offensive line has been a major issue as Eli Manning has been sacked eight times already and has been forced into making check-down throws, as evidenced by the fact that running back Saquon Barkley is leading the team in receptions with 16. Odell Beckham Jr. has gotten his catches with 15 but most have been short completions and he has just 162 total yards.

The offensive ineptitude has been especially tough on Sterling Shepard, the team’s top wide receiver in 2017. Through two games, the third-year man has just eight catches for 72 yards and has only been targeted 12 times. And things aren’t looking great for Sunday when he lines up against Houston's Aaron Colvin, one of the top slot cornerbacks in the league. Let’s grab the Under 60 for Shepard’s receiving yards on Sunday.