RYAN WORDEN
NFL | Sep 16, 2018
Texans vs. Titans
Texans-2½
After both teams lost last week this is a big week game for these two AFC Central rivals with playoff aspirations. Don't read too much into their respective week 1 losses. The Texans would have needed to play a near perfect game to upset New England on the road and for the Titans, how much can you read into a game that featured 4 hours worth of weather delays?
Houston is not only the better team in my opinion but Tennessee has a number of important pieces on offense that will either miss the game or won't be 100 percent, including both offensive tackles, Delanie Walker and Marcus Mariota. If the Titans were 100 percent I'd still like Houston, but being as short-handed as the Titans will be too much to overcome. The Pick: Lay The Points and Take Houston.
NFL | Sep 16, 2018
Texans vs. Titans
Texans-2½
After both teams lost last week this is a big week game for these two AFC Central rivals with playoff aspirations. Don't read too much into their respective week 1 losses. The Texans would have needed to play a near perfect game to upset New England on the road and for the Titans, how much can you read into a game that featured 4 hours worth of weather delays?
Houston is not only the better team in my opinion but Tennessee has a number of important pieces on offense that will either miss the game or won't be 100 percent, including both offensive tackles, Delanie Walker and Marcus Mariota. If the Titans were 100 percent I'd still like Houston, but being as short-handed as the Titans will be too much to overcome. The Pick: Lay The Points and Take Houston.
JACK JONES
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Arizona Cardinals +13.5
This is the ultimate contrarian play. One where you just plug your nose and bet it because of the value. And that’s what we’ll do here by backing the Arizona Cardinals as nearly two-touchdown road underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams Sunday.
Few teams looked worse than the Arizona Cardinals last week in their 6-24 home loss to the Washington Redskins. And few teams looked better than the Los Angeles Rams in their 33-13 win at Oakland on Monday Night Football. So the public perception on the Rams right now is very high, and the public perception on the Cardinals is very low.
That has created some point spread value here on the Cardinals. No team is as bad or as good as they looked in Week 1. And the Cardinals are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder here trying to redeem themselves, especially after losing both meetings to the Rams last season. These division rivalries are played closed to the vest and usually closer than other non-division games.
The Rams are feeling fat and happy after getting a ton of positive headlines in the media from their win over the Raiders. They didn’t look great in the first half as they trailed 10-13, but they made the proper adjustments and outscored the Raiders 23-0 after intermission. But it was far from the blowout that the score showed. The Rams were actually outgained by 30 yards in that contest, but they won the turnover battle 3-0, including a pick-six by Marcus Peters in the final two minutes.
I expect the Rams to be overlooking the Cardinals in this game now. Any team with a lot of stars like they have will show up in big games, but not in games they are supposed to dominate. And after playing under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, they won’t be nearly as motivated this week. Plus, it’s a short week for them as well now, which is a disadvantage.
The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Rams are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. NFC opponents. Los Angeles is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 home games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Arizona is 4-1 ATS in tis last five road meetings with the Rams. You aren’t getting any bargains on the Rams this week. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Arizona Cardinals +13.5
This is the ultimate contrarian play. One where you just plug your nose and bet it because of the value. And that’s what we’ll do here by backing the Arizona Cardinals as nearly two-touchdown road underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams Sunday.
Few teams looked worse than the Arizona Cardinals last week in their 6-24 home loss to the Washington Redskins. And few teams looked better than the Los Angeles Rams in their 33-13 win at Oakland on Monday Night Football. So the public perception on the Rams right now is very high, and the public perception on the Cardinals is very low.
That has created some point spread value here on the Cardinals. No team is as bad or as good as they looked in Week 1. And the Cardinals are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder here trying to redeem themselves, especially after losing both meetings to the Rams last season. These division rivalries are played closed to the vest and usually closer than other non-division games.
The Rams are feeling fat and happy after getting a ton of positive headlines in the media from their win over the Raiders. They didn’t look great in the first half as they trailed 10-13, but they made the proper adjustments and outscored the Raiders 23-0 after intermission. But it was far from the blowout that the score showed. The Rams were actually outgained by 30 yards in that contest, but they won the turnover battle 3-0, including a pick-six by Marcus Peters in the final two minutes.
I expect the Rams to be overlooking the Cardinals in this game now. Any team with a lot of stars like they have will show up in big games, but not in games they are supposed to dominate. And after playing under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, they won’t be nearly as motivated this week. Plus, it’s a short week for them as well now, which is a disadvantage.
The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Rams are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. NFC opponents. Los Angeles is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 home games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Arizona is 4-1 ATS in tis last five road meetings with the Rams. You aren’t getting any bargains on the Rams this week. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
SEAN MURPHY
NFL | Sep 16, 2018
Chiefs vs. Steelers
OVER 53
Sunday NFL Bonus Play. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was widely considered to be the breakout star of the preseason and he certainly kept it rolling in Week 1 of the regular season as he guided the Chiefs to a big road win over the division-rival Chargers. But now can he keep it going? In short, the answer is probably yes, but the bigger concern for the Chiefs is how their defense will fare after it was shredded against the Chargers last Sunday. Los Angeles did not take advantage of enough of its scoring opportunities last Sunday, essentially gift-wrapping that game for the Chiefs. Here, we can count on the Steelers to take full advantage of a vulnerable Chiefs defense as they fall into an excellent bounce-back spot at home following last week’s sluggish performance in rainy Cleveland. There is some concern over Ben Roethlisberger’s elbow bruise but I don’t expect that minor injury to affect his performance on Sunday. The Chiefs did little to slow the Chargers excellent wide receivers last Sunday and we should see more of the same from the Steelers offense here. On the flip side, the Pittsburgh defense isn’t what it once was (the Browns didn’t have the personnel to take advantage last week) and I’m confident we’ll see the Chiefs get theirs as well. Take the over (10*)
NFL | Sep 16, 2018
Chiefs vs. Steelers
OVER 53
Sunday NFL Bonus Play. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was widely considered to be the breakout star of the preseason and he certainly kept it rolling in Week 1 of the regular season as he guided the Chiefs to a big road win over the division-rival Chargers. But now can he keep it going? In short, the answer is probably yes, but the bigger concern for the Chiefs is how their defense will fare after it was shredded against the Chargers last Sunday. Los Angeles did not take advantage of enough of its scoring opportunities last Sunday, essentially gift-wrapping that game for the Chiefs. Here, we can count on the Steelers to take full advantage of a vulnerable Chiefs defense as they fall into an excellent bounce-back spot at home following last week’s sluggish performance in rainy Cleveland. There is some concern over Ben Roethlisberger’s elbow bruise but I don’t expect that minor injury to affect his performance on Sunday. The Chiefs did little to slow the Chargers excellent wide receivers last Sunday and we should see more of the same from the Steelers offense here. On the flip side, the Pittsburgh defense isn’t what it once was (the Browns didn’t have the personnel to take advantage last week) and I’m confident we’ll see the Chiefs get theirs as well. Take the over (10*)
ART ARONSON
This is a 1* Bonus Play on the UNDER Pats/Jags.
The Pats beat the Texans 27-20 in Week 1 as QB Tom Brady threw for 277 yards and three TD’s. New England’s defense though stole the show, shutting down Houston’s dynamic QB DeShaun Watson throughout most of the game. WR Julian Edelman is out still from suspension, so Brady and the offense will be leaning on the defense in the early going (held Houston’s star WR DeAndre Hopkins to just eight catches for 78 yards.) The Jags got the job done in New York 20-15 in Week 1. Jacksonville forced two turnovers, with Myles Jack returned an INT for 32 yards for a score. QB Blake Bortles was 18 of 33 for 176 yards, a TD and an INT. Good news for the already stacked Jags defense as well is the return of Dante Fowler, who sat out his one game suspension last week (he had a career-high eight sacks last year.) The O/U is 1-4 the last five in this series and all signs point to another lower-scoring battle. Play the UNDER.
AAA Sport
This is a 1* Bonus Play on the UNDER Pats/Jags.
The Pats beat the Texans 27-20 in Week 1 as QB Tom Brady threw for 277 yards and three TD’s. New England’s defense though stole the show, shutting down Houston’s dynamic QB DeShaun Watson throughout most of the game. WR Julian Edelman is out still from suspension, so Brady and the offense will be leaning on the defense in the early going (held Houston’s star WR DeAndre Hopkins to just eight catches for 78 yards.) The Jags got the job done in New York 20-15 in Week 1. Jacksonville forced two turnovers, with Myles Jack returned an INT for 32 yards for a score. QB Blake Bortles was 18 of 33 for 176 yards, a TD and an INT. Good news for the already stacked Jags defense as well is the return of Dante Fowler, who sat out his one game suspension last week (he had a career-high eight sacks last year.) The O/U is 1-4 the last five in this series and all signs point to another lower-scoring battle. Play the UNDER.
AAA Sport
JOSEPH D'AMICO
Sunday's FREE NFL WINNER: New York Giants.
Game 287.
In a big, NFC East rivalry matchup, I must side with our Boys In Blue. The Giants took a tough, 5-point loss to the Panthers in the opening week. But their defense looked good, particularly against the run. QB, Eli Manning is always going to get his yardage. But, I feel the big edge here comes with NY's other two offensive superstars. OBJ, who pulled down 11 receptions for 111 YR last week vs. Jacksonville, will light up the scoreboard. The WR missed both meetings LY vs. Dallas. He lives for games like this. The other big name, rookie RB, Saquon Barkley (18 ATT on 106 YR LW) should once again hit the century mark as the Cowboys "D" can not key on him, having their hands full with the Giants receiving corps. New York is 5-2 ATS the L7 meetings in this series. Dallas is 2-5 ATS the L7 at home. Take the Giants. Thank you.
Sunday's FREE NFL WINNER: New York Giants.
Game 287.
In a big, NFC East rivalry matchup, I must side with our Boys In Blue. The Giants took a tough, 5-point loss to the Panthers in the opening week. But their defense looked good, particularly against the run. QB, Eli Manning is always going to get his yardage. But, I feel the big edge here comes with NY's other two offensive superstars. OBJ, who pulled down 11 receptions for 111 YR last week vs. Jacksonville, will light up the scoreboard. The WR missed both meetings LY vs. Dallas. He lives for games like this. The other big name, rookie RB, Saquon Barkley (18 ATT on 106 YR LW) should once again hit the century mark as the Cowboys "D" can not key on him, having their hands full with the Giants receiving corps. New York is 5-2 ATS the L7 meetings in this series. Dallas is 2-5 ATS the L7 at home. Take the Giants. Thank you.
MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Sep 16, 2018
Chiefs vs. Steelers
Steelers-4½
The Pittsburgh Steelers opened the season with a disappointing 21-21 tie at Cleveland. Big Ben and the rest of the team always show up home in Steel City though, and I expect a dominant win for the home team in this matchup.
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 14 touchdown passes against four INTs in seven career starts versus the Chiefs. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a minor minor elbow issue but participated in Friday's practice. Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey added after Friday's practice that he's confident Roethlisberger will play Sunday, and I'm also counting on Big Ben to be fit for fight.
Steelers turned over the ball six times against the Browns in Week 1, but here they'll face a vulnerable KC defense which was torched for 541 total yards (418 yards passing) against Philip Rivers and the Chargers in Week 1. We can also note that the Steelers have won six of the last eight meetings and picked up a 19-13 road triumph at Arrowhead last year.
Free pick on Pittsburgh Steelers.
NFL | Sep 16, 2018
Chiefs vs. Steelers
Steelers-4½
The Pittsburgh Steelers opened the season with a disappointing 21-21 tie at Cleveland. Big Ben and the rest of the team always show up home in Steel City though, and I expect a dominant win for the home team in this matchup.
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 14 touchdown passes against four INTs in seven career starts versus the Chiefs. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a minor minor elbow issue but participated in Friday's practice. Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey added after Friday's practice that he's confident Roethlisberger will play Sunday, and I'm also counting on Big Ben to be fit for fight.
Steelers turned over the ball six times against the Browns in Week 1, but here they'll face a vulnerable KC defense which was torched for 541 total yards (418 yards passing) against Philip Rivers and the Chargers in Week 1. We can also note that the Steelers have won six of the last eight meetings and picked up a 19-13 road triumph at Arrowhead last year.
Free pick on Pittsburgh Steelers.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Indianapolis at Washington 1:00 ET
Colts (+) over Redskins
Well, at least 'we' had half of the two winners presented to me here. Using the Redskins 'Best Bet' Power Play winner was one of the best plays on the board and so I thought was Indianapolis surrendered three scores on the final quarter to fall to the Bengals. Andrew Luck show he is 'back' and looking for his first victory in two years. Washington behind Alex Smith had a 'perfect' game against the cardinals but are in a bad spot her for a number of reasons. To start with the Shins' are 1-9 ATS as home favorites when opponents enter off a straight up loss and the Colts are 23-5 SU and 22-6 ATS behind luck when coming off a loss including 10-1 as an underdog. Take INDIANAPOLIS!
Indianapolis at Washington 1:00 ET
Colts (+) over Redskins
Well, at least 'we' had half of the two winners presented to me here. Using the Redskins 'Best Bet' Power Play winner was one of the best plays on the board and so I thought was Indianapolis surrendered three scores on the final quarter to fall to the Bengals. Andrew Luck show he is 'back' and looking for his first victory in two years. Washington behind Alex Smith had a 'perfect' game against the cardinals but are in a bad spot her for a number of reasons. To start with the Shins' are 1-9 ATS as home favorites when opponents enter off a straight up loss and the Colts are 23-5 SU and 22-6 ATS behind luck when coming off a loss including 10-1 as an underdog. Take INDIANAPOLIS!
ROSS BENJAMIN
Minnesota @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET
Game# 265-266
Play On: Under 44.0 (5*)
Minnesota has gone 18-5 (78.3%) under the total during its last 23 games when facing a fellow NFC North Division team. Green Bay has seen 6 of its last 7 games played against Green Bay go under the total. There was a combined average of 37.4 points scored per game during those 7 contests.
Minnesota is coming off a 24-16 win over San Francisco in their season opener. Green Bay opened their season with last Sunday night thrilling 24-23 come from behind victory against Chicago. The combination of those 2 results and the current total on this contest sets up an extremely profitable betting situation that’s illustrated below.
Any team (Green) playing a division game with a total of 42.5 or greater that’s coming off a straight up win in which they failed to cover, and they scored 24 points or fewer in their previous game, versus an opponent (Minnesota) who scored 31 points or less in their previous game, resulted in those games going 27-2 (93.1%) under the total since 2009. Bet on this game to go under the total for my Sunday 9/16 NFL free pick of the day.
Minnesota @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET
Game# 265-266
Play On: Under 44.0 (5*)
Minnesota has gone 18-5 (78.3%) under the total during its last 23 games when facing a fellow NFC North Division team. Green Bay has seen 6 of its last 7 games played against Green Bay go under the total. There was a combined average of 37.4 points scored per game during those 7 contests.
Minnesota is coming off a 24-16 win over San Francisco in their season opener. Green Bay opened their season with last Sunday night thrilling 24-23 come from behind victory against Chicago. The combination of those 2 results and the current total on this contest sets up an extremely profitable betting situation that’s illustrated below.
Any team (Green) playing a division game with a total of 42.5 or greater that’s coming off a straight up win in which they failed to cover, and they scored 24 points or fewer in their previous game, versus an opponent (Minnesota) who scored 31 points or less in their previous game, resulted in those games going 27-2 (93.1%) under the total since 2009. Bet on this game to go under the total for my Sunday 9/16 NFL free pick of the day.
BRYAN LEONARD
Event: (273) Miami Dolphins at (274) New York Jets
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 16, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Miami Dolphins 3.0 (-110)
273 Miami at NY Jets
Miami outlasted the Titans last week in a lightning slowed game. There wasn’t much continuity because of the weather in Florida. But Miami was the better team posting a 57% successful play average, while Tennessee was only 40%. The Dolphins have won 3 of 4 in this series, and grade out as the slightly better team.
The Jets have a short week after playing Monday Night Football, and were helped by a +3 Turnover margin. With a rookie quarterback we won’t see many games in which the Jets win the turnover battle. Not only is New York on a short week, but it plays Thursday night in Cleveland.
PLAY MIAMI
Event: (273) Miami Dolphins at (274) New York Jets
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 16, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Miami Dolphins 3.0 (-110)
273 Miami at NY Jets
Miami outlasted the Titans last week in a lightning slowed game. There wasn’t much continuity because of the weather in Florida. But Miami was the better team posting a 57% successful play average, while Tennessee was only 40%. The Dolphins have won 3 of 4 in this series, and grade out as the slightly better team.
The Jets have a short week after playing Monday Night Football, and were helped by a +3 Turnover margin. With a rookie quarterback we won’t see many games in which the Jets win the turnover battle. Not only is New York on a short week, but it plays Thursday night in Cleveland.
PLAY MIAMI
TEDDY COVERS
Event: (263) Carolina Panthers at (264) Atlanta Falcons
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 16, 2018 1PM EDT
3% Take Atlanta (#264)
The injury bug was not kind to the Carolina Panthers in Week 1. They lost tight end Greg Olson, a former pro bowler. They lost pro bowl right tackle Darryl Williams and pro bowl linebacker Luke Kuechley as well. Stud LB Thomas Davis is still serving his suspension. Tackles Matt Kalil and Jeremiah Sirles are both on IR. These are NOT minor injuries, especially when considering that their top three tackles are all hurt right now, bad news for Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey.
And frankly, there wasn’t much to like about Carolina’s bumbling eight point win over Dallas in Week 1. McCaffrey didn’t get untracked in the running game. Cam Newton was under constant pressure and he didn’t complete a single pass of 20 yards or longer; nothing but dink and dunk. Carolina’s defense was solid, but the Cowboys lack playmakers. The Falcons don’t!
Dan Quinn has owned Ron Rivera of late, with the Panthers winning four of the last five meetings between these two squads. All of those wins came by a TD or more; three by double digit margins. The Panthers only win during this span was a tight three point non-spread covering victory that was more about Matt Ryan’s interceptions than any other factor.
The Falcons have extra time to prepare, coming off their Thursday Night Week 1 offensive debacle at Philadelphia, and multiple reports had Falcons players staying late, after practice to work on their red zone offensive execution. They’re not dealing with the storm distractions in the Carolinas, like the Panthers have been dealing with all week – Carolina won’t travel to Atlanta until Saturday. And with the Panthers likely to start rookie CB Donte Jackson, don’t be surprised if the Falcons find the end zone repeatedly on Sunday after failing in that regard Week 1. Chalk worth laying! Take the Falcons
Event: (263) Carolina Panthers at (264) Atlanta Falcons
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 16, 2018 1PM EDT
3% Take Atlanta (#264)
The injury bug was not kind to the Carolina Panthers in Week 1. They lost tight end Greg Olson, a former pro bowler. They lost pro bowl right tackle Darryl Williams and pro bowl linebacker Luke Kuechley as well. Stud LB Thomas Davis is still serving his suspension. Tackles Matt Kalil and Jeremiah Sirles are both on IR. These are NOT minor injuries, especially when considering that their top three tackles are all hurt right now, bad news for Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey.
And frankly, there wasn’t much to like about Carolina’s bumbling eight point win over Dallas in Week 1. McCaffrey didn’t get untracked in the running game. Cam Newton was under constant pressure and he didn’t complete a single pass of 20 yards or longer; nothing but dink and dunk. Carolina’s defense was solid, but the Cowboys lack playmakers. The Falcons don’t!
Dan Quinn has owned Ron Rivera of late, with the Panthers winning four of the last five meetings between these two squads. All of those wins came by a TD or more; three by double digit margins. The Panthers only win during this span was a tight three point non-spread covering victory that was more about Matt Ryan’s interceptions than any other factor.
The Falcons have extra time to prepare, coming off their Thursday Night Week 1 offensive debacle at Philadelphia, and multiple reports had Falcons players staying late, after practice to work on their red zone offensive execution. They’re not dealing with the storm distractions in the Carolinas, like the Panthers have been dealing with all week – Carolina won’t travel to Atlanta until Saturday. And with the Panthers likely to start rookie CB Donte Jackson, don’t be surprised if the Falcons find the end zone repeatedly on Sunday after failing in that regard Week 1. Chalk worth laying! Take the Falcons
DAVE COKIN
Event: (261) Indianapolis Colts at (262) Washington Redskins
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 16, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Washington Redskins -5.5 (-110)
Washington might not be an offensive juggernaut. But I don't see problems for them moving the football against this Indy defense. I have the Colts as #32 out of 32 defensively. The Colts have a decent offense with Andrew Luck now healthy again, and they figure to get their share of points here as the Redskins aren't as good as they looked last week on that side of the ball. But that unit will definitely have some confidence off last week's result. First-year coach for Indianapolis and we know what happened with the rookie bosses last week. I don't envision another blank for them this week but I think there has to be an edge still accorded to the teams that might just be better organized this early in the season. I power rated this game at -7.5 so there's a nice little edge for the favorite that I'm willing to play. Redskins minus the points.
Event: (261) Indianapolis Colts at (262) Washington Redskins
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 16, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Washington Redskins -5.5 (-110)
Washington might not be an offensive juggernaut. But I don't see problems for them moving the football against this Indy defense. I have the Colts as #32 out of 32 defensively. The Colts have a decent offense with Andrew Luck now healthy again, and they figure to get their share of points here as the Redskins aren't as good as they looked last week on that side of the ball. But that unit will definitely have some confidence off last week's result. First-year coach for Indianapolis and we know what happened with the rookie bosses last week. I don't envision another blank for them this week but I think there has to be an edge still accorded to the teams that might just be better organized this early in the season. I power rated this game at -7.5 so there's a nice little edge for the favorite that I'm willing to play. Redskins minus the points.
