Jeff Benton
What a tough freebie loss with Toronto on Saturday, as the Jays lost in 12 innings at Baltimore. For Sunday’s Bonus Play, I’m backing the Tigers and Justin Verlander on the run line (-1½ runs) against the crappy Indians.
I put my money on Verlander on Tuesday against the Royals with a 10 Dime run-line play, and while he was definitely more shaky than normal – allowing five runs (three earned) in six innings – he still had nasty stuff, as evidenced by the fact he struck out 11 and walked none. And Detroit managed to pull out an 8-5 victory, allowing us to cash the run-line ticket.
That makes Verlander 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP (46 hits and walks allowed in 46 2/3 innings) at Comerica Park this season, with Detroit going 6-1 in his seven home outings (and four of the last five home wins have been by more than one run). Also, Verlander has tamed the Tribe twice this season, going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA, giving up a total of one run, four hits and five walks in 16 innings, striking out 22.
Those latter numbers have to be most satisfying to Verlander, as the Indians had been the one team that had given him fits in his career. Prior to this year, he was 4-10 with a 6.70 ERA in 15 starts against Cleveland.
Then again, beating the Indians has been the Tigers’ specialty this year. Despite Saturday’s 5-4 setback, Detroit is still 6-2 against the Tribe this year, and five of those have been multiple-run victories. Of course, the Tigers aren’t the only team feasting on the Indians, who have the second-worst record in all of baseball; only Washington is worse both in the standings and at the betting window.
Finally, Cleveland is handing the ball to journeyman Tomo Ohka, who is 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA in six appearances (three starts) this year and 0-2 with an 8.49 ERA in three career outings against Detroit. Throw in the fact that the Tigers have won three of four (all three wins by multiple runs) while the Tribe have dropped nine of 13 (all nine losses by multiple runs), and this one’s a no-brainer. Lay the 1½ runs with Verlander and the home team.
(based on a 1? to a 10? Rating)
6? DETROIT (-1 1/2 runs)
What a tough freebie loss with Toronto on Saturday, as the Jays lost in 12 innings at Baltimore. For Sunday’s Bonus Play, I’m backing the Tigers and Justin Verlander on the run line (-1½ runs) against the crappy Indians.
I put my money on Verlander on Tuesday against the Royals with a 10 Dime run-line play, and while he was definitely more shaky than normal – allowing five runs (three earned) in six innings – he still had nasty stuff, as evidenced by the fact he struck out 11 and walked none. And Detroit managed to pull out an 8-5 victory, allowing us to cash the run-line ticket.
That makes Verlander 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP (46 hits and walks allowed in 46 2/3 innings) at Comerica Park this season, with Detroit going 6-1 in his seven home outings (and four of the last five home wins have been by more than one run). Also, Verlander has tamed the Tribe twice this season, going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA, giving up a total of one run, four hits and five walks in 16 innings, striking out 22.
Those latter numbers have to be most satisfying to Verlander, as the Indians had been the one team that had given him fits in his career. Prior to this year, he was 4-10 with a 6.70 ERA in 15 starts against Cleveland.
Then again, beating the Indians has been the Tigers’ specialty this year. Despite Saturday’s 5-4 setback, Detroit is still 6-2 against the Tribe this year, and five of those have been multiple-run victories. Of course, the Tigers aren’t the only team feasting on the Indians, who have the second-worst record in all of baseball; only Washington is worse both in the standings and at the betting window.
Finally, Cleveland is handing the ball to journeyman Tomo Ohka, who is 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA in six appearances (three starts) this year and 0-2 with an 8.49 ERA in three career outings against Detroit. Throw in the fact that the Tigers have won three of four (all three wins by multiple runs) while the Tribe have dropped nine of 13 (all nine losses by multiple runs), and this one’s a no-brainer. Lay the 1½ runs with Verlander and the home team.
(based on a 1? to a 10? Rating)
6? DETROIT (-1 1/2 runs)
Matt Rivers
For Sunday take the Marlins in Arizona.
Doug Davis has been great this season and has gotten little to show for it thanks to a pretty bad Arizona offense. Today those Diamondback hitters are up against a stud in Josh Johnson and I really don't see many runners crossing the plate in favor of the Southpaw. Yes Arizona has been a little better of late but no they are still not really very good.
Johnson has been phenomenal this season only allowing more than three earned runs once all season long and has now hurled 15 quality starts in his 18 stints toeing the rubber this season. That is pretty much as good as they come yet Johnson is not close to being looked at as an elite hurler.
Davis has been very solid and after coming back from cancer I can't be any more impressed and happy for the lefty but today he is the inferior hurler and up against a pretty powerful righthanded laden lineup led by Ramirez, Uggla and Cantu who will get their licks in.
The Marlins are the better team here as the Diamondbacks have underachieved mightily this season and at this point are just not a very good ballclub. Why should today be any different? They shouldn't!
1♦ Florida on a 1♦ to 5♦ Scale
For Sunday take the Marlins in Arizona.
Doug Davis has been great this season and has gotten little to show for it thanks to a pretty bad Arizona offense. Today those Diamondback hitters are up against a stud in Josh Johnson and I really don't see many runners crossing the plate in favor of the Southpaw. Yes Arizona has been a little better of late but no they are still not really very good.
Johnson has been phenomenal this season only allowing more than three earned runs once all season long and has now hurled 15 quality starts in his 18 stints toeing the rubber this season. That is pretty much as good as they come yet Johnson is not close to being looked at as an elite hurler.
Davis has been very solid and after coming back from cancer I can't be any more impressed and happy for the lefty but today he is the inferior hurler and up against a pretty powerful righthanded laden lineup led by Ramirez, Uggla and Cantu who will get their licks in.
The Marlins are the better team here as the Diamondbacks have underachieved mightily this season and at this point are just not a very good ballclub. Why should today be any different? They shouldn't!
1♦ Florida on a 1♦ to 5♦ Scale
Dominic Fazzini
Justin Verlander (9-4, 3.59 ERA) has bounced back from a disappointing 2008 season and is bound for the All-Star Game in St. Louis on Tuesday.
The Tigers right-hander has been outstanding in seven starts at Comerica Park this season, going 5-0 with a major league-best 1.54 ERA at home.
Verlander leads the American League in strikeouts with 141 and has re-established himself as Detroit’s ace. He is 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in two starts vs. the Indians this year, including a two-hit shutout in Cleveland on May 8.
He will be opposed by Cleveland right-hander Tomo Ohka (0-2, 5.65), who is making a spot start after left-hander Jeremy Sowers was sent to Triple-A Columbus on Thursday.
Ohka is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in three starts, and hasn’t won a major league game since April 2007. He is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA in two career starts vs. Detroit.
Detroit and Cleveland are teams going in opposite directions right now, and the All-Star break can’t come fast enough for the Indians. In fact, they might decide to start their vacation early after getting a look at Verlander for a few innings today. This one looks easy to call. Go with the Tigers on the run line.
(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)
4♦ DETROIT -1 1/2 runs
Justin Verlander (9-4, 3.59 ERA) has bounced back from a disappointing 2008 season and is bound for the All-Star Game in St. Louis on Tuesday.
The Tigers right-hander has been outstanding in seven starts at Comerica Park this season, going 5-0 with a major league-best 1.54 ERA at home.
Verlander leads the American League in strikeouts with 141 and has re-established himself as Detroit’s ace. He is 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in two starts vs. the Indians this year, including a two-hit shutout in Cleveland on May 8.
He will be opposed by Cleveland right-hander Tomo Ohka (0-2, 5.65), who is making a spot start after left-hander Jeremy Sowers was sent to Triple-A Columbus on Thursday.
Ohka is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in three starts, and hasn’t won a major league game since April 2007. He is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA in two career starts vs. Detroit.
Detroit and Cleveland are teams going in opposite directions right now, and the All-Star break can’t come fast enough for the Indians. In fact, they might decide to start their vacation early after getting a look at Verlander for a few innings today. This one looks easy to call. Go with the Tigers on the run line.
(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)
4♦ DETROIT -1 1/2 runs
Tony Weston
Tough loss yesterday with the Reds. I’m not sweating that though, as I’m closing out the first half of the MLB season with solid winner out in Anaheim as we’re taking the Angels to sweep their series against the Yankees.
Who said the Angels had no offense? Even without a few of their bats, the Angels have dropped 24 runs on the Yankees in the first two games of this series, beating the Yanks 10-6 in Game 1 on Friday then coming from behind for a very solid 14-8 win yesterday.
Including those two wins the Angels have won 5 of their last 7 games and have won 10 of their last 15 overall.
Also, the Angels turn to starter John Lackey, who has won 2 of his last 3 starts. On the other side, the Yankees turn to CC Sabathia. The Yankees have only been able to cash in 3 of Sabathia’s last 7 starts and are just 2-2 his last four starts on the road.
Most importantly, head-to-head, the Angels have owned the Yankees, going back to last season. Over their last 11 meetings the Angels have gone 8-3 against New York and are 7-1 their last 8 at home against the Yanks.
Anaheim will continue their winning ways at home against New York and sweep this series.
3♦ ANGELS (on a 1♦ - 5♦ Scale)
Tough loss yesterday with the Reds. I’m not sweating that though, as I’m closing out the first half of the MLB season with solid winner out in Anaheim as we’re taking the Angels to sweep their series against the Yankees.
Who said the Angels had no offense? Even without a few of their bats, the Angels have dropped 24 runs on the Yankees in the first two games of this series, beating the Yanks 10-6 in Game 1 on Friday then coming from behind for a very solid 14-8 win yesterday.
Including those two wins the Angels have won 5 of their last 7 games and have won 10 of their last 15 overall.
Also, the Angels turn to starter John Lackey, who has won 2 of his last 3 starts. On the other side, the Yankees turn to CC Sabathia. The Yankees have only been able to cash in 3 of Sabathia’s last 7 starts and are just 2-2 his last four starts on the road.
Most importantly, head-to-head, the Angels have owned the Yankees, going back to last season. Over their last 11 meetings the Angels have gone 8-3 against New York and are 7-1 their last 8 at home against the Yanks.
Anaheim will continue their winning ways at home against New York and sweep this series.
3♦ ANGELS (on a 1♦ - 5♦ Scale)
The Sports Investing Professional
Sunday
Saturday Recap - That's why we play it "listed
pitchers" About 10 people emailed asking what to
do when they changed from Anderson to Braden..
I told them what I'd have told everyone that it's not
a good investment going against Braden and especially
not at that price so take the cancelled bet and move on.
This brings me to a point I want everyone to understand.
The email that gets sent is not sent by me. It's sent by
feedburner and it only goes out one time per day at about
7:07am Pacific. So people ask me why don't I just email
everyone when there is a pitcher change.....the truth
is that I can't...well I could but You'd get it the next day
in the morning. The only thing I can say is to
check the blog and I'll try to update but for the most
part if we play a game with listed pitchers and their
is a pitching change....our play is done unless otherwise
specified.
Today's Play(s) - Since the last week of MLB is pretty
much a crap shoot anyway, we do have a worthy investment,
however, it comes from the WNBA. In the Chicago vs Seattle
matchup, the total should be about 148. The line opened at
138. Either the linemakers are giving early Christmas presents or
someone in the know has hit the under very very hard thus the
sportsbooks need some love on the over which they will surely get.
It makes our play even better that the public has hopped full in on the over
driving it up to 140 already. Our play is UNDER 140.
This is a night game so I would wait to bet as we may get 141 or even 142
I'll update the line on the blog if it goes over 140
WNBA - Chicago Sky / Seattle Storm UNDER 140 - 550.00 / 500.00
Record (12-5) + $2,650
Sunday
Saturday Recap - That's why we play it "listed
pitchers" About 10 people emailed asking what to
do when they changed from Anderson to Braden..
I told them what I'd have told everyone that it's not
a good investment going against Braden and especially
not at that price so take the cancelled bet and move on.
This brings me to a point I want everyone to understand.
The email that gets sent is not sent by me. It's sent by
feedburner and it only goes out one time per day at about
7:07am Pacific. So people ask me why don't I just email
everyone when there is a pitcher change.....the truth
is that I can't...well I could but You'd get it the next day
in the morning. The only thing I can say is to
check the blog and I'll try to update but for the most
part if we play a game with listed pitchers and their
is a pitching change....our play is done unless otherwise
specified.
Today's Play(s) - Since the last week of MLB is pretty
much a crap shoot anyway, we do have a worthy investment,
however, it comes from the WNBA. In the Chicago vs Seattle
matchup, the total should be about 148. The line opened at
138. Either the linemakers are giving early Christmas presents or
someone in the know has hit the under very very hard thus the
sportsbooks need some love on the over which they will surely get.
It makes our play even better that the public has hopped full in on the over
driving it up to 140 already. Our play is UNDER 140.
This is a night game so I would wait to bet as we may get 141 or even 142
I'll update the line on the blog if it goes over 140
WNBA - Chicago Sky / Seattle Storm UNDER 140 - 550.00 / 500.00
Record (12-5) + $2,650
Gamehunter
METS +102 (1.5 UNITS)
DODGERS +125 (1.5 UNITS)
SAN DIEGO +130 (1.5 UNITS)
BOSTON -1.5 RUNS (-130) (1.75 UNITS)
UNDER TB/OAK 8.5 RUNS (-108) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TB/OAK 1st 5 Innings 4.5 (-112) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TOR/BALT 9 RUNS (-110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TOR/BALT 1st 5 Innings 5 (-118) (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER WHITE SOX/MINNY 8 RUNS (+110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER WHITE SOX/MINNY 1st 5 innings 4.5 (-110) (1 UNIT)
TEXAS +144 (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER YANKEES/ANGELS 9 RUNS (-110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER YANKEES/ANGELS 1st 5 Innings 5 (-114) (1 UNIT)
METS +102 (1.5 UNITS)
DODGERS +125 (1.5 UNITS)
SAN DIEGO +130 (1.5 UNITS)
BOSTON -1.5 RUNS (-130) (1.75 UNITS)
UNDER TB/OAK 8.5 RUNS (-108) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TB/OAK 1st 5 Innings 4.5 (-112) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TOR/BALT 9 RUNS (-110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TOR/BALT 1st 5 Innings 5 (-118) (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER WHITE SOX/MINNY 8 RUNS (+110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER WHITE SOX/MINNY 1st 5 innings 4.5 (-110) (1 UNIT)
TEXAS +144 (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER YANKEES/ANGELS 9 RUNS (-110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER YANKEES/ANGELS 1st 5 Innings 5 (-114) (1 UNIT)
Gamehunter
METS +102 (1.5 UNITS)
DODGERS +125 (1.5 UNITS)
SAN DIEGO +130 (1.5 UNITS)
BOSTON -1.5 RUNS (-130) (1.75 UNITS)
UNDER TB/OAK 8.5 RUNS (-108) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TB/OAK 1st 5 Innings 4.5 (-112) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TOR/BALT 9 RUNS (-110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TOR/BALT 1st 5 Innings 5 (-118) (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER WHITE SOX/MINNY 8 RUNS (+110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER WHITE SOX/MINNY 1st 5 innings 4.5 (-110) (1 UNIT)
TEXAS +144 (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER YANKEES/ANGELS 9 RUNS (-110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER YANKEES/ANGELS 1st 5 Innings 5 (-114) (1 UNIT)
METS +102 (1.5 UNITS)
DODGERS +125 (1.5 UNITS)
SAN DIEGO +130 (1.5 UNITS)
BOSTON -1.5 RUNS (-130) (1.75 UNITS)
UNDER TB/OAK 8.5 RUNS (-108) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TB/OAK 1st 5 Innings 4.5 (-112) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TOR/BALT 9 RUNS (-110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER TOR/BALT 1st 5 Innings 5 (-118) (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER WHITE SOX/MINNY 8 RUNS (+110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER WHITE SOX/MINNY 1st 5 innings 4.5 (-110) (1 UNIT)
TEXAS +144 (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER YANKEES/ANGELS 9 RUNS (-110) (1 UNIT)
UNDER YANKEES/ANGELS 1st 5 Innings 5 (-114) (1 UNIT)
Larry Ness
Today’s Free Pick
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners Jul 12, 2009 4:10PM
PICK: Seattle Mariners
REASON FOR PICK: The Rangers took two of three in Anaheim early in the week, taking a one game lead over the Angels in the AL West. The Rangers moved to Seattle on Thursday, taking on the Mariners in a four-game series. That was good news, as Texas had beaten Seattle in all five of this year's meetings between the two teams. However, the Mariners have taken two of the first three games of this series, while the Angels own two comeback wins over the Yankees, leapfrogging the Rangers in the AL West (Angels lead by a half-game heading into Sunday). The 'heart' of the Texas lineup, Josh Hamilton (bats third) and Andruw Jones (4th) have been quieted in this series. Hamilton, who just recently returned from the DL, is 2-for-11 with no RBI vs the Mariners, while Jones, who hit three HRs in Wednesday's 8-1 win over the Angels, is 0-for-11. The Texas bats will be tested today by Seattle's Erik Bedard. The Mariners made a HUGE trade with the Orioles to get Erik Bedard prior to the 2008 season in hopes of solidifying the top of their rotation. Bedard had excellent credentials, having gone 28-16 with a 3.47 ERA in 2006 and 2007, with the Orioles winning 36 of his 61 starts over the two years (more later). However, Bedard was never quite right last year, going 6-4 with a 3.67 ERA in 15 starts (team was 8-7) and was through for the year prior to the All Star break. Bedard has struggled staying healthy again this year but came off the DL to pitch Tuesday night vs Baltimore. Bedard pitched reasonably well and probably could have gone longer had he not been on such a strict pitch count (75). He had missed the previous 25 games with left shoulder inflammation but worked the first four innings during Tuesday's no decision against the Orioles, allowing two ERs, two hits, walked one and struck out eight. He settled down to throw three scoreless innings after Baltimore scored twice in the first. When he's been able to pitch in 2009, Bedard has been impressive. He's a modest 5-2 in 12 starts (team is just 6-6) but his record (surely the team's record in his starts) does not tell the whole story. Bedard has allowed two ERs or less in 10 of his 12 starts in '09 (he's allowed just three ERs in his other two starts), posting a 2.58 ERA (owns a 73-23 K/W ratio). In his six starts prior to going on the DL, he allowed a total of only nine ERs in 34.2 innings (2.34 ERA), going 3-1 (team, was 4-2). Bedard is 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA in 10 starts vs Texas (teams are 5-5) but here's the numbers that I really like about Bedard. Bedard was a real "difference-maker" with the Orioles in 2006 and 2007 (when healthy), as his 28-16 (.636) record and the team's mark of 36-25 (.590) in his starts was significantly better than Baltimore's 139-185 (.429) overall two-year mark. Doing the math, Baltimore was 28-16 (.636) when Bedard got a decision but just 111-169 (.396) when he didn't. When Bedard got the start, Baltimore went 36-25 (.590) but with someone else getting the start, just 103-160 (.392). Bedard's opponent will be Dustin Nippert. He made 36 appearances (all relief) with the Angels in 2007, going 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA. He was with the Rangers last year, going 3-5 with a 6.40 ERA (20 appearances / six starts), allowing 92 hits in 71.2 innings. He spent the first three months of the season on the DL with a strained muscle in his right shoulder suffered in spring training and made his first start of 2009 on July 7th. He got a no decision in Anaheim this past Tuesday night, leaving after 3.2 innings (allowed seven hits and three ERs). He was lucky, as the Rangers put up a six-run fifth after he left witha 3-0 deficit (Rangers won 8-5). He's really no match for Bedard and the Mariners have won 12 of their last 17 home games.
Take Seattle.
Today’s Free Pick
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners Jul 12, 2009 4:10PM
PICK: Seattle Mariners
REASON FOR PICK: The Rangers took two of three in Anaheim early in the week, taking a one game lead over the Angels in the AL West. The Rangers moved to Seattle on Thursday, taking on the Mariners in a four-game series. That was good news, as Texas had beaten Seattle in all five of this year's meetings between the two teams. However, the Mariners have taken two of the first three games of this series, while the Angels own two comeback wins over the Yankees, leapfrogging the Rangers in the AL West (Angels lead by a half-game heading into Sunday). The 'heart' of the Texas lineup, Josh Hamilton (bats third) and Andruw Jones (4th) have been quieted in this series. Hamilton, who just recently returned from the DL, is 2-for-11 with no RBI vs the Mariners, while Jones, who hit three HRs in Wednesday's 8-1 win over the Angels, is 0-for-11. The Texas bats will be tested today by Seattle's Erik Bedard. The Mariners made a HUGE trade with the Orioles to get Erik Bedard prior to the 2008 season in hopes of solidifying the top of their rotation. Bedard had excellent credentials, having gone 28-16 with a 3.47 ERA in 2006 and 2007, with the Orioles winning 36 of his 61 starts over the two years (more later). However, Bedard was never quite right last year, going 6-4 with a 3.67 ERA in 15 starts (team was 8-7) and was through for the year prior to the All Star break. Bedard has struggled staying healthy again this year but came off the DL to pitch Tuesday night vs Baltimore. Bedard pitched reasonably well and probably could have gone longer had he not been on such a strict pitch count (75). He had missed the previous 25 games with left shoulder inflammation but worked the first four innings during Tuesday's no decision against the Orioles, allowing two ERs, two hits, walked one and struck out eight. He settled down to throw three scoreless innings after Baltimore scored twice in the first. When he's been able to pitch in 2009, Bedard has been impressive. He's a modest 5-2 in 12 starts (team is just 6-6) but his record (surely the team's record in his starts) does not tell the whole story. Bedard has allowed two ERs or less in 10 of his 12 starts in '09 (he's allowed just three ERs in his other two starts), posting a 2.58 ERA (owns a 73-23 K/W ratio). In his six starts prior to going on the DL, he allowed a total of only nine ERs in 34.2 innings (2.34 ERA), going 3-1 (team, was 4-2). Bedard is 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA in 10 starts vs Texas (teams are 5-5) but here's the numbers that I really like about Bedard. Bedard was a real "difference-maker" with the Orioles in 2006 and 2007 (when healthy), as his 28-16 (.636) record and the team's mark of 36-25 (.590) in his starts was significantly better than Baltimore's 139-185 (.429) overall two-year mark. Doing the math, Baltimore was 28-16 (.636) when Bedard got a decision but just 111-169 (.396) when he didn't. When Bedard got the start, Baltimore went 36-25 (.590) but with someone else getting the start, just 103-160 (.392). Bedard's opponent will be Dustin Nippert. He made 36 appearances (all relief) with the Angels in 2007, going 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA. He was with the Rangers last year, going 3-5 with a 6.40 ERA (20 appearances / six starts), allowing 92 hits in 71.2 innings. He spent the first three months of the season on the DL with a strained muscle in his right shoulder suffered in spring training and made his first start of 2009 on July 7th. He got a no decision in Anaheim this past Tuesday night, leaving after 3.2 innings (allowed seven hits and three ERs). He was lucky, as the Rangers put up a six-run fifth after he left witha 3-0 deficit (Rangers won 8-5). He's really no match for Bedard and the Mariners have won 12 of their last 17 home games.
Take Seattle.
Scott Rickenbach
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers Jul 12, 2009 2:05PM
PICK: under
REASON FOR PICK: Scott Rickenbach's Free Pick Opinion Play for MLB Sunday: UNDER the total in Milwaukee vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 2:05 PM ET - Gallardo vs Kershaw - Look for an absolute pitchers' duel here. This total has moved from a 7.5u to an 8o and so the line value here is fantastic. The move is most likely being generated by the fact that there have been a pile of runs scored so far in this series. Our response to that is that pitching changes everything. Yovani Gallardo of the Brewers is having a fantastic season as he continues to be one of the toughest pitchers to hit in the majors. His numbers bear that out. Making things even more difficult for the Dodgers this afternoon is the fact that they've only got two players on their roster who have ever even faced Gallardo.
As for the flip-side of this equation, we see Clayton Kershaw taking the mound for the Dodgers today. The southpaw is getting hit at just a .204 clip this season so here you have a match-up featuring one of the toughest lefties in the league matched up with one of the toughest righties in the majors. Also, in Kershaw's only career start against the Brewers he held them to just one run in six innings. We just don't see the justification for this line move upward with the total and we'll suggest that you grab the value on the other side.
Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers Jul 12, 2009 2:05PM
PICK: under
REASON FOR PICK: Scott Rickenbach's Free Pick Opinion Play for MLB Sunday: UNDER the total in Milwaukee vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 2:05 PM ET - Gallardo vs Kershaw - Look for an absolute pitchers' duel here. This total has moved from a 7.5u to an 8o and so the line value here is fantastic. The move is most likely being generated by the fact that there have been a pile of runs scored so far in this series. Our response to that is that pitching changes everything. Yovani Gallardo of the Brewers is having a fantastic season as he continues to be one of the toughest pitchers to hit in the majors. His numbers bear that out. Making things even more difficult for the Dodgers this afternoon is the fact that they've only got two players on their roster who have ever even faced Gallardo.
As for the flip-side of this equation, we see Clayton Kershaw taking the mound for the Dodgers today. The southpaw is getting hit at just a .204 clip this season so here you have a match-up featuring one of the toughest lefties in the league matched up with one of the toughest righties in the majors. Also, in Kershaw's only career start against the Brewers he held them to just one run in six innings. We just don't see the justification for this line move upward with the total and we'll suggest that you grab the value on the other side.
Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon.
Tommy Gill
San Francisco Giants (-145)
Giants ML –145 for 2 units
The Pitching matchup in this game is Zito (5-7 4.43 ERA) vs. Correia (5-7 4.58 ERA). This has been a very odd series with injuries and no hitter and crazy stuff happening but all 11 games these teams have met this season the home team has won. The Giants are 31-14 at home this season while the Padres are 20 games under .500 on the road. Zito has a very good ERA at home this season with a 3.27 ERA vs. Correia who has been struggling lately. Correia has given up 13 runs his last 3 games in 18 innings pitched. There are to many trend that point to the Giants today and with the all-star break coming up I just can’t see anyone resting today and a good reason for a play here for the Giants to get the sweep.
San Francisco Giants (-145)
Giants ML –145 for 2 units
The Pitching matchup in this game is Zito (5-7 4.43 ERA) vs. Correia (5-7 4.58 ERA). This has been a very odd series with injuries and no hitter and crazy stuff happening but all 11 games these teams have met this season the home team has won. The Giants are 31-14 at home this season while the Padres are 20 games under .500 on the road. Zito has a very good ERA at home this season with a 3.27 ERA vs. Correia who has been struggling lately. Correia has given up 13 runs his last 3 games in 18 innings pitched. There are to many trend that point to the Giants today and with the all-star break coming up I just can’t see anyone resting today and a good reason for a play here for the Giants to get the sweep.
Today is a perfect example. Will be fading all of these games of the whatever or ridiculous dime plays. These guys are reaching as its the last game before the break.
If they win, you won't hear the end of it as they are probably looking to get back into the plus for the 1st half, or they will be talking about how they won there games of the whatever for weeks as they try to promote for the 2nd half of the year. If they lose, you'll never hear about it or see the info on the website.
Amazing how many games of the year or 1st half we get two days before the all star game.
These guys are all so predictable.Jimmy Boyd
Stl Gm2 vs. Cubs Gm2
Stl Gm2 +104
Adam Wainwright continues to be a picture of consistency for the St. Louis Cardinals, posting a 9-5 record so far this season with a 3.09 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He's earned a 1.11 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in his last three starts as well. Randy Wells has pitched well for the Cubs in 11 starts this season, but he worst starts have come at Wrigley, where he is just 2-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. This looks to be a well-pitched game on both sides, but I like the Cardinals chances as they are clearly hitting better than the Cubs right now.
1* on St. Louis Cardinals +103 (Game 2)
Stl Gm2 vs. Cubs Gm2
Stl Gm2 +104
Adam Wainwright continues to be a picture of consistency for the St. Louis Cardinals, posting a 9-5 record so far this season with a 3.09 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He's earned a 1.11 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in his last three starts as well. Randy Wells has pitched well for the Cubs in 11 starts this season, but he worst starts have come at Wrigley, where he is just 2-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. This looks to be a well-pitched game on both sides, but I like the Cardinals chances as they are clearly hitting better than the Cubs right now.
1* on St. Louis Cardinals +103 (Game 2)
Vegas Experts
Florida Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, July 12th, 4:10 ET
Dbacks have taken the first two games of this series by a combined score of 13-1, but still remain huge money burners at home, including a 13-21 record vs. righties. We look for this series to take a different turn this afternoon as Marlins starter Josh Johnson has been red hot all season with a 2.82 ERA in 18 starts. Florida has won 24 of his last 32 starts overall, including 11 of 14 in daytime action. The fish are also 20-11 vs. lefties this year.
Play on: Florida
Florida Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, July 12th, 4:10 ET
Dbacks have taken the first two games of this series by a combined score of 13-1, but still remain huge money burners at home, including a 13-21 record vs. righties. We look for this series to take a different turn this afternoon as Marlins starter Josh Johnson has been red hot all season with a 2.82 ERA in 18 starts. Florida has won 24 of his last 32 starts overall, including 11 of 14 in daytime action. The fish are also 20-11 vs. lefties this year.
Play on: Florida
