After "Black Wednesday" it was a little tough waking up and doing the work today. To steal a line from "Rounders", "I felt like Buckner walking back into Shea". But, we'll be good.
Yesterday: 0-6 -6.61
Season: 66-63 -0.42 units (each game = 1 unit)
April: 2-4 -2.07
May: 64-59 +1.65
Today
Philadelphia +121
Seattle +108
Yesterday: 0-6 -6.61
Season: 66-63 -0.42 units (each game = 1 unit)
April: 2-4 -2.07
May: 64-59 +1.65
Today
Philadelphia +121
Seattle +108
I gotta pull the plug on this posting business. Since I started posting here I've gotten cute with what plays I've gone with because I'm trying to eliminate what look like weaker plays based on my numbers because I wanted to show to y'all what looked like the highest quality plays in case anyone was actually tailing them.
It has completely backfired on me as I've now eliminated a staggering 15-5 +11.27 unit mark on plays that had all shown negative value to this point otherwise. It's getting more ridiculous by the day. 4-0 eliminated the last two days and the plays I'm actually posting here that look the strongest are all losing. What a mess. I should've just stayed the course and trusted the spreadsheets that would have us up 7.56 units instead of down 3.71. I guess you can actually test TOO MANY things within your data because it's really got me in a state of confusion right now.
It's really just poor decision making and I should know better but it's still very early (i'm only in my fourth week). I'm going back to playing all of the actual spreadsheet picks and hopefully get back on track but I'll be doing it away from here because I need to re-focus on my priorities and not worry anymore about posting too many plays or whatever. I'm not making excuses. I was going to just stop posting without saying anything (because no one's probably paying attention anyway...and with good reason) but thought better of it and wanted to explain what's been happening on my end.
Good luck to everyone the rest of the year.
It has completely backfired on me as I've now eliminated a staggering 15-5 +11.27 unit mark on plays that had all shown negative value to this point otherwise. It's getting more ridiculous by the day. 4-0 eliminated the last two days and the plays I'm actually posting here that look the strongest are all losing. What a mess. I should've just stayed the course and trusted the spreadsheets that would have us up 7.56 units instead of down 3.71. I guess you can actually test TOO MANY things within your data because it's really got me in a state of confusion right now.
It's really just poor decision making and I should know better but it's still very early (i'm only in my fourth week). I'm going back to playing all of the actual spreadsheet picks and hopefully get back on track but I'll be doing it away from here because I need to re-focus on my priorities and not worry anymore about posting too many plays or whatever. I'm not making excuses. I was going to just stop posting without saying anything (because no one's probably paying attention anyway...and with good reason) but thought better of it and wanted to explain what's been happening on my end.
Good luck to everyone the rest of the year.
I left off in this thread sitting at a disappointing 67-67 -3.71 units. As I like to tell anyone who will listen, winning makes you money...but losing makes you better. Every time I go through a rough stretch, it forces me to look at things closer which in turn improves the overall body of work to some degree, which then in turn produces a better chance of winning.
Since I last posted, things have gotten a little clearer regarding the mass of information I have to sort through on a daily basis. I've been doing this type of work for years but this specific approach is only in it's second season. I now have accumulated 2,569 games into the database with this approach spanning separate seasons now (1,816 in 2011 and so far 753 in 2012) which has allowed the data to solidify a little more. Each season seems to take on its own unique personality so I couldn't wait to get into the heart of this season to be able to combine all the data and test it together. The goal is to find something that has a great chance of profiting year after year.
To remind those reading, my formulas place a value and an opinion on each and every game but some of the games get canceled out by opposing formulas. Of those 2,569 games, 1,778 of them have had no formula conflicts. To show what I perceive as strength in the raw work, if I blindly wagered on all 1,778 opinions regardless of the margin or what the money line was, I would have a record of 971-807 and a profit of +44.81 units (a unit is whatever you wager per game as all games are for one unit). That's my starting point before I actually look for where the strength is within those games. Obviously I'm gonna look for the wider gaps between the two teams and limit the money lines to something more reasonable which is how the final plays get stronger.
The money line limit was the one change I was dying to make as the 2012 data accumulated. In 2011, the games were profitable as high as -180 for home favorites so that is where I started this season at. It is my philosophy to let the data, and not my own emotions, dictate what I play. If the games were profitable at any line, I wouldn't limit the price at all even if I was uncomfortable laying lines that high. I am pleased that I have been able to lower the money line limit to -150 now which only costs me a handful of units over both seasons albeit at a higher profit per game and greatly increases the 2012 numbers to over 22 units of profit to this point if I had it set at -150 from the beginning which is irrelevant now. My hope is that I can get it down even lower. I know a lot of people still consider -150 too high as I have heard over the years, but in my opinion each person's work is different and will be profitable (or not) under different lines. I've learned there are a lot of people who get "psyched out" by money lines so they can't bet sports like baseball and hockey and stick with the point spread sports instead. The fact of the matter is, even going as high as -150, my average laying price is still only -113 overall which amounts to just a little more than your standard football or basketball wager that no one seems to have a problem laying. I spell these things out on these posts in the hope that I can help anyone feel more at ease with higher money lines, assuming the foundation of the work can profit from them. The only way to know is to find out for yourself, otherwise I guarantee you're losing money somewhere.
I have added other requirements which limit the number of plays each day (never a bad thing). As always, things can and will change as the data does and I'm willing to change with it. But for right now, expect only a few plays per day. These will be the best plays that 2500 games of data can produce going forward. No other guarantee than that. There are still going to be peaks and valleys so I always play every game for one unit each and grind it out. I will resume my record from where I left off. I wish I could post some of the data on the plays because just posting the plays each day gets boring especially if there's not much interaction going on, but I haven't been able to figure out an easy way to copy and paste from a spreadsheet.
Since I last posted, things have gotten a little clearer regarding the mass of information I have to sort through on a daily basis. I've been doing this type of work for years but this specific approach is only in it's second season. I now have accumulated 2,569 games into the database with this approach spanning separate seasons now (1,816 in 2011 and so far 753 in 2012) which has allowed the data to solidify a little more. Each season seems to take on its own unique personality so I couldn't wait to get into the heart of this season to be able to combine all the data and test it together. The goal is to find something that has a great chance of profiting year after year.
To remind those reading, my formulas place a value and an opinion on each and every game but some of the games get canceled out by opposing formulas. Of those 2,569 games, 1,778 of them have had no formula conflicts. To show what I perceive as strength in the raw work, if I blindly wagered on all 1,778 opinions regardless of the margin or what the money line was, I would have a record of 971-807 and a profit of +44.81 units (a unit is whatever you wager per game as all games are for one unit). That's my starting point before I actually look for where the strength is within those games. Obviously I'm gonna look for the wider gaps between the two teams and limit the money lines to something more reasonable which is how the final plays get stronger.
The money line limit was the one change I was dying to make as the 2012 data accumulated. In 2011, the games were profitable as high as -180 for home favorites so that is where I started this season at. It is my philosophy to let the data, and not my own emotions, dictate what I play. If the games were profitable at any line, I wouldn't limit the price at all even if I was uncomfortable laying lines that high. I am pleased that I have been able to lower the money line limit to -150 now which only costs me a handful of units over both seasons albeit at a higher profit per game and greatly increases the 2012 numbers to over 22 units of profit to this point if I had it set at -150 from the beginning which is irrelevant now. My hope is that I can get it down even lower. I know a lot of people still consider -150 too high as I have heard over the years, but in my opinion each person's work is different and will be profitable (or not) under different lines. I've learned there are a lot of people who get "psyched out" by money lines so they can't bet sports like baseball and hockey and stick with the point spread sports instead. The fact of the matter is, even going as high as -150, my average laying price is still only -113 overall which amounts to just a little more than your standard football or basketball wager that no one seems to have a problem laying. I spell these things out on these posts in the hope that I can help anyone feel more at ease with higher money lines, assuming the foundation of the work can profit from them. The only way to know is to find out for yourself, otherwise I guarantee you're losing money somewhere.
I have added other requirements which limit the number of plays each day (never a bad thing). As always, things can and will change as the data does and I'm willing to change with it. But for right now, expect only a few plays per day. These will be the best plays that 2500 games of data can produce going forward. No other guarantee than that. There are still going to be peaks and valleys so I always play every game for one unit each and grind it out. I will resume my record from where I left off. I wish I could post some of the data on the plays because just posting the plays each day gets boring especially if there's not much interaction going on, but I haven't been able to figure out an easy way to copy and paste from a spreadsheet.
I'm losing every one of these games that are being decided in the 9th inning or extras. Negative variance which will hopefully balance out later.
Yesterday: 0-1 -1.37
Season: 77-79 -7.07 units (each game = 1 unit)
-$707 at $100 per game
-$7070 at $1000 per game
Average Money Line Played: +101
Average Risk Per Game: 1.14 units
Today
San Diego +146
Detroit +111
Yesterday: 0-1 -1.37
Season: 77-79 -7.07 units (each game = 1 unit)
-$707 at $100 per game
-$7070 at $1000 per game
Average Money Line Played: +101
Average Risk Per Game: 1.14 units
Today
San Diego +146
Detroit +111
